Simulated BCS standings, Week 2: Clemson surges to No. 3, computers hate Louisville

Streeter Lecka

There are no official BCS rankings for the 2013 college football season yet, but we know how the standings would look if they were released.

Teddy Bridgewater certainly put on a show and launched his Heisman campaign in style against Ohio. But for his team, it was but the first in a series of low-impact, low-return matchups.

Louisville is stuck at No. 14 in the simulated BCS standings after the first week, and don't look for the Cardinals to make much of a move either in the polls or the computers anytime soon. They face FCS Eastern Kentucky next, and then Kentucky and Florida International before opening American Athletic Conference play against Temple.

The full simulated standings:

Rank Pvs Team Rk Coach % Rk AP % Md* JS KM RB Cp Avg BCS Conf
1 1 Alabama 1 1545 0.9968 1 1497 0.9980 1 1 1 1 1.000 0.9983 SEC
2 2 Oregon 3 1420 0.9161 2 1355 0.9033 2 9 2 4 0.870 0.8965 P12
3 8 Clemson 5 1275 0.8226 4 1304 0.8693 7 10 7 2 0.780 0.8240 ACC
4 5 Stanford 4 1292 0.8335 5 1277 0.8513 4 4 12 7 0.770 0.8183 P12
5 7 South Carolina 6 1220 0.7871 6 1181 0.7873 6 7 6 6 0.790 0.7881 SEC
6 3 Ohio State 2 1444 0.9316 3 1330 0.8867 12 15 21 5 0.510 0.7761 B10
7 6 Texas A&M 7 1181 0.7619 7 1085 0.7233 3 6 3 8 0.840 0.7751 SEC
8 11 LSU 11 926 0.5974 9 971 0.6473 5 3 4 11 0.810 0.6849 SEC
9 12 Florida State 10 946 0.6103 10 953 0.6353 9 14 5 14 0.620 0.6219 ACC
10 9 Florida 9 974 0.6284 12 875 0.5833 11 13 8 9 0.630 0.6139 SEC
11 4 Georgia 12 875 0.5645 11 894 0.5960 14 5 10 13 0.620 0.5935 SEC
12 10 Notre Dame 13 840 0.5419 14 707 0.4713 8 11 11 3 0.710 0.5744 Ind
13 13 Oklahoma State 14 798 0.5148 13 780 0.5200 10 2 9 18 0.650 0.5616 B12
14 14 Louisville 8 1051 0.6781 8 1073 0.7153 18

12 0.220 0.5378 AA
15 15 Oklahoma 15 666 0.4297 16 612 0.4080 13 8 13 10 0.600 0.4792 B12
16 16 Texas 16 660 0.4258 15 674 0.4493 16 19 20 19 0.300 0.3917 B12
17 17 Michigan 17 623 0.4019 17 583 0.3887 15 22 16
0.250 0.3469 B10
18 26 Northwestern 20 348 0.2245 19 320 0.2133 20
17 20 0.210 0.2159 B10
19 24 UCLA 18 368 0.2374 18 387 0.2580 21 21

0.100 0.1985 P12
20 22 Wisconsin 21 301 0.1942 21 287 0.1913 19 24 23
0.120 0.1685 B10
21 25 Baylor 26 125 0.0806 23 150 0.1000 17
15 21 0.250 0.1435 B12
22 19 Nebraska 19 357 0.2303 22 219 0.1460 25


0.010 0.1288 B10
23 27 USC 22 176 0.1135 25 135 0.0900 22 23 19
0.140 0.1145 P12
24 42 Washington 23 145 0.0935 20 315 0.2100
25 24
0.030 0.1112 P12
25 20 TCU 24 140 0.0903 24 148 0.0987
12

0.140 0.1097 B12
26 36 Ole Miss 28 54 0.0348 27 50 0.0333
18 14
0.200 0.0894 SEC
27 29 Miami (Fla.) 24 140 0.0903 26 127 0.0847



0.000 0.0583 ACC
28 39 Penn State ^ 0.0000 37 4 0.0027 24
22 16 0.160 0.0542 B10
29 32 Arizona State 31 28 0.0181 28 48 0.0320
16 25
0.110 0.0534 P12
30 28 Northern Illinois 30 31 0.0200 30 27 0.0180


15 0.110 0.0493 MAC
31 41 Cincinnati 32 19 0.0123 30 27 0.0180 23

22 0.070 0.0334 AA
32 34 San Jose State 33 12 0.0077 0.0000


17 0.090 0.0326 MWC
33 18 Boise State 37 5 0.0032 38 3 0.0020
17

0.090 0.0317 MWC
34 21 Kansas State 40 3 0.0019 0.0000

18 25 0.090 0.0306 B12
35 33 Virginia Tech 37 5 0.0032 33 12 0.0080
20

0.060 0.0237 ACC
36 30 Michigan State 27 67 0.0432 29 42 0.0280


0.000 0.0237 B10
37 37 Fresno State 29 46 0.0297 32 22 0.0147



0.000 0.0148 MWC
38 51 Arkansas State 40 3 0.0019 0.0000


23 0.030 0.0106 Sun
39 NR Texas Tech 40 3 0.0019 0.0000


24 0.020 0.0073 B12
40 46 Georgia Tech 35 10 0.0065 35 8 0.0053



0.000 0.0039 ACC
41 44 Arizona 36 7 0.0045 36 6 0.0040



0.000 0.0028 P12
42 51 Arkansas 33 12 0.0077 40 1 0.0007



0.000 0.0028 SEC
43 NR Bowling Green 43 1 0.0006 34 9 0.0060


0.000 0.0022 MAC
44 50 Central Florida 39 4 0.0026 0.0000



0.000 0.0009 AA
45 NR Virginia 0.0000 39 2 0.0013



0.000 0.0004 ACC
46 47 East Carolina 43 1 0.0006 0.0000



0.000 0.0002 CUSA
46 NR Missouri 43 1 0.0006 0.0000



0.000 0.0002 SEC
46 40 North Carolina 43 1 0.0006 0.0000



0.000 0.0002 ACC
46 31 Utah State 43 1 0.0006 0.0000



0.000 0.0002 MWC

Keys: Pvs = Previous Week; Coach = USA Today Coaches Poll; AP = Associated Press Poll; Md = Median ranking of 24 computer ratings; JS = Jeff Sagarin; KM* = Kenneth Massey MOV; RB = Richard Billingsley; Cp Avg = Computer Average; Yellow indicates top team in BCS conference; Orange indicates top team in non-BCS conference.

Explanation: This rankings method is a simulation of the actual BCS standings with the following variations: 1) The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Interactive Poll, which is not published until after the first weekend of October; 2) Three of the six BCS computer ratings are available - Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey and Richard Billingsley; 3) The other three computer ratings - Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix and Peter Wolfe - will not be available until mid-September or October, so they're replaced by the median ranking of 24 computer ratings.

^ Penn State is ineligible for inclusion in Official BCS Standings

Only one of Louisville's opponents is ranked above No. 55 in the Massey Ratings, which has Louisville at No. 40 currently. In the other two BCS computer rankings currently available, the Cardinals are No. 29 (in Jeff Sagarin) and No. 12 (in Richard Billingsley). But the high ranking in Billingsley is nearly meaningless because of its high frequency of being discarded by the BCS formula (each team's most extreme rankings are tossed).

Another national title contender facing considerable headwind early in the season is Ohio State, which despite being ranked No. 2 in the Coaches Poll and No. 3 in the AP Poll finds itself only No. 6 in the simulated BCS standings. The Buckeyes also have an impact-free nonconference schedule that features FCS Florida A&M and San Diego State, which was trounced in its opener by FCS Eastern Illinois.

But at least Ohio State should get decent amount of help once the Big Ten schedule begins, even though it will miss Nebraska and Michigan State, two of the better teams in the conference. The Buckeyes will be able to hang on to their lofty poll rankings as long as they keep winning and just by virtue of being in the Big Ten, their computer ratings will not continue to sink.

The same cannot be said for Louisville, which faces the prospect of going 12-0 and not coming close to playing for the BCS title. Then again, we're getting way ahead of ourselves.

Louisville and Ohio State notwithstanding, we do have a few high-impact BCS games in Week 2, and here they are (rankings in simulated BCS standings):

No. 5 South Carolina at No. 11 Georgia (4:30 p.m. ESPN): Last week's opener at Clemson was not a do-or-die game for Georgia, but this week's SEC opener certainly is. A Bulldogs loss will surely eliminate them from the BCS title chase, if not a shot at the SEC championship game. Steve Spurrier has owned his old rival at his new school once again, having won the last three to improve to 15-5 lifetime against Georgia.

No. 12 Notre Dame at No. 17 Michigan (8 p.m. ET, ESPN): In the final Big House matchup in the foreseeable future between those storied rivals, possibly more than just semantics are on the line. This is one of the two toughest road tests for Notre Dame this season (the other being the season finale at Stanford), and Michigan Stadium has simply been the Big House of Horrors for the Irish, who have lost six of the last seven there, the last two in excruciating fashion.

No. 10 Florida at Miami (Noon, ESPN): This rivalry has definitely gone non-storied, this being only the sixth time these schools have met since 1987 and the last maybe in a long, long time. This game certainly means more to the Hurricanes, who are trying to rebuild the program and reestablish their national profile. The Gators simply have bigger fishes to fry in the SEC and a loss here wouldn't even cripple their national title hopes.

San Jose State at No. 4 Stanford (11 p.m., Pac-12 Network): Stanford is the only ranked team that did not play last week and its season-opener is far from a cakewalk. Mike MacIntyre rebuilt the Spartans program and led them to an 11-2 record in 2012 before moving on to Colorado. The Cardinal barely held off San Jose State, 20-17, in last year's opener, and can ill-afford to overlook their next-door neighbor this time around.

No. 2 Oregon at Virginia (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2): Mark Helfrich made his debut as Oregon coach last week, but does it really count when the Colonels of Nicholls State fell in the Oregon forest while you were still searching for Fox Sports 1? This week, his high-powered Ducks will take their show on the road against a Virginia team that might not be such a pushover, after an upset win over BYU in its opener.

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Spencer Hall recaps Week 1: The process never stops

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