Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Washington Huskies (6-6) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (9-4)
December 26 ( 2:20 PM ET, ESPN ), Cotton Bowl, Dallas
Spread: Washington -8.5
S&P+ Projection: Washington 31.8, Southern Miss 23.1
Team Sites: UW Dawg Pound, Underdog Dynasty (USM)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Washington | Southern Miss | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 20 | 56 | ||
Category | Washington offense | Southern Miss defense | Southern Miss offense | Washington defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 5.56 (53) | 5.01 (40) | 6.69 (8) | 4.59 (16) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 379.2 (76) | 370.3 (50) | 515.2 (11) | 343.8 (27) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 2.30 (64) | 1.78 (41) | 2.95 (15) | 1.34 (11) |
Category | Washington offense | Southern Miss defense | Southern Miss offense | Washington defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 31.8 (46) | 27.4 (62) | 32.9 (41) | 17.6 (10) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 104.8 (59) | 102.5 (59) | 106.5 (52) | 117.3 (20) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 90.1 (97) | 97.8 (75) | 104.4 (55) | 112.6 (25) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.7 (82) | 101.6 (56) | 102.0 (60) | 116.2 (15) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 97.8 (78) | 98.1 (78) | 117.7 (30) | 118.4 (20) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 91.5 (103) | 103.4 (48) | 96.9 (87) | 119.9 (23) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 100.5 (71) | 124.1 (15) | 109.0 (46) | 118.2 (21) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 121.3 (23) | 92.0 (93) | 108.2 (48) | 118.3 (23) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 87.9 (110) | 93.7 (93) | 121.3 (11) | 137.9 (3) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Washington
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 27 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 8 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 13 defense vs. No. 79 offense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 23 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
Southern Miss
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 24 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 23 defense vs. No. 111 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 26 defense vs. No. 95 offense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 10 defense vs. No. 71 offense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 35 defense vs. No. 92 offense)
Five Factors
Category | Washington offense | Southern Miss defense | Southern Miss offense | Washington defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.25 (71) | 1.35 (105) | 1.51 (1) | 1.14 (17) |
EFFICIENCY | 42.1% (63) | 37.1% (26) | 43.4% (46) | 39.8% (56) |
FIELD POSITION | 32.1 (26) | 28.1 (33) | 33.5 (10) | 29.2 (56) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 4.8 (66) | 4.2 (32) | 5.2 (31) | 3.3 (2) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Washington 3.87 (32) Southern Miss -1.61 (87) |
ACTUAL Washington 6 (30) Southern Miss -2 (80) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Washington offense | Southern Miss offense |
Adj. Pace | -6.0 (117) | 1.3 (46) |
Plays per game | 68.3 (108) | 77.0 (40) |
Possessions per game | 12.8 (78) | 13.8 (31) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.7% (97) | 52.8% (103) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.0% (101) | 20.1% (124) |
% of solo tackles | 74.3% (73) | 80.8% (21) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Washington defense | Southern Miss defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.2% (60) | 56.0% (104) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 30.8% (90) | 29.8% (104) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 17.4% (40) | 18.9% (23) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.5% (39) | 12.1% (18) |
DB Havoc Rate | 6.8% (45) | 6.7% (49) |
PD to INC | 32.2% (69) | 33.3% (57) |
When Washington has the ball…
Standard Downs
Washington Offense | Southern Miss Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 97.7 | 82 | 101.6 | 56 | Southern Miss |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.4 | 87 | 42.1 | 24 | Southern Miss big |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 57 | 0.98 | 91 | Washington |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.89 | 69 | 2.66 | 35 | Southern Miss |
SD Sack Rate | 6.2% | 88 | 4.4% | 89 |
Passing Downs
Washington Offense | Southern Miss Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 97.8 | 78 | 98.1 | 78 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.8 | 31 | 28.5 | 43 | Washington |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.62 | 98 | 1.79 | 93 | |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.33 | 52 | 2.86 | 38 | Southern Miss |
PD Sack Rate | 10.7% | 111 | 10% | 23 | Southern Miss big |
When Southern Miss has the ball…
Standard Downs
Southern Miss Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 102.0 | 60 | 116.2 | 15 | Washington |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 45.4 | 88 | 45.3 | 56 | Washington |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.40 | 1 | 1.15 | 10 | |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.17 | 25 | 2.64 | 33 | |
SD Sack Rate | 3.5% | 38 | 6.9% | 19 | Washington |
Passing Downs
Southern Miss Offense | Washington Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 117.7 | 30 | 118.4 | 20 | Washington |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 38.8 | 11 | 27.2 | 32 | Southern Miss |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.84 | 50 | 1.86 | 73 | Southern Miss |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.16 | 74 | 3.56 | 101 | Southern Miss |
PD Sack Rate | 6.2% | 47 | 7.8% | 54 |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Washington | Jake Browning | 6'2, 206 | FR | 210 | 335 | 2671 | 16 | 10 | 62.7% | 30 | 8.2% | 6.8 |
Washington | K.J. Carta-Samuels | 6'2, 220 | FR | 10 | 24 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 41.7% | 3 | 11.1% | 3.4 |
Southern Miss | Nick Mullens | 6'1, 196 | JR | 306 | 483 | 4145 | 36 | 12 | 63.4% | 20 | 4.0% | 7.9 |
Southern Miss | Tyler Matthews | 6'4, 215 | JR | 5 | 7 | 112 | 1 | 0 | 71.4% | 1 | 12.5% | 12.9 |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Washington | Myles Gaskin | TB | 5'9, 192 | FR | 201 | 1121 | 10 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 39.3% |
Washington | Dwayne Washington | TB | 6'2, 226 | JR | 47 | 282 | 4 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 29.8% |
Washington | Jake Browning | QB | 6'2, 206 | FR | 30 | 200 | 1 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 53.3% |
Washington | Lavon Coleman | TB | 5'11, 222 | SO | 27 | 137 | 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 37.0% |
Southern Miss | Jalen Richard | RB | 5'8, 210 | SR | 185 | 1098 | 14 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 41.6% |
Southern Miss | Ito Smith | RB | 5'9, 195 | SO | 155 | 1088 | 8 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 37.4% |
Southern Miss | Justice Hayes | RB | 5'10, 194 | SR | 45 | 195 | 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 28.9% |
Southern Miss | Delaunte' Thornton | RB | 5'8, 205 | FR | 25 | 131 | 0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 56.0% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Washington | Jaydon Mickens | WR | 5'11, 170 | SR | 80 | 50 | 597 | 2 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 62.5% |
Washington | Joshua Perkins | TE | 6'4, 226 | SR | 56 | 33 | 470 | 3 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 58.9% |
Washington | Dante Pettis | WR | 6'0, 185 | SO | 54 | 28 | 384 | 1 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 51.9% |
Washington | Brayden Lenius | WR | 6'5, 220 | SO | 35 | 26 | 307 | 3 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 74.3% |
Washington | Dwayne Washington | TB | 6'2, 226 | JR | 30 | 25 | 315 | 3 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 83.3% |
Washington | Darrell Daniels | TE | 6'4, 241 | JR | 21 | 18 | 241 | 1 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 85.7% |
Washington | Isaiah Renfro | WR | 6'1, 207 | FR | 17 | 13 | 178 | 0 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 76.5% |
Southern Miss | Mike Thomas | WR | 6'1, 200 | SR | 98 | 62 | 1201 | 12 | 19.4 | 12.3 | 63.3% |
Southern Miss | Casey Martin | WR | 5'10, 180 | SR | 97 | 74 | 855 | 7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 76.3% |
Southern Miss | D.J. Thompson | WR | 6'3, 200 | JR | 89 | 52 | 743 | 6 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 58.4% |
Southern Miss | Ito Smith | RB | 5'9, 195 | SO | 63 | 44 | 493 | 3 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 69.8% |
Southern Miss | Jalen Richard | RB | 5'8, 210 | SR | 34 | 31 | 295 | 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 91.2% |
Southern Miss | Taylor Marini | TE | 6'4, 237 | SO | 19 | 6 | 65 | 1 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 31.6% |
Southern Miss | Korey Robertson | WR | 6'1, 210 | FR | 17 | 14 | 200 | 3 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 82.4% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Washington | Azeem Victor | LB | 6'3, 240 | SO | 71.5 | 10.3% | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Keishawn Bierria | LB | 6'1, 220 | SO | 59.0 | 8.5% | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Cory Littleton | OLB | 6'3, 227 | SR | 47.5 | 6.8% | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Brian Clay | DB | 6'1, 207 | SR | 47.0 | 6.8% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Travis Feeney | LB | 6'4, 226 | SR | 45.5 | 6.5% | 15.5 | 7.0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Washington | Sidney Jones | DB | 6'0, 178 | SO | 34.5 | 5.0% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
Washington | Budda Baker | DB | 5'10, 178 | SO | 33.5 | 4.8% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Kevin King | DB | 6'3, 183 | JR | 31.5 | 4.5% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | Darren Gardenhire | DB | 5'11, 185 | SO | 31.5 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Washington | Taniela Tupou | DL | 6'2, 288 | SR | 30.5 | 4.4% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Washington | JoJo McIntosh | DB | 6'0, 196 | FR | 28.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | 6'0, 201 | FR | 26.5 | 3.8% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Elijah Qualls | DL | 6'1, 311 | SO | 19.5 | 2.8% | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | D'Nerius Antoine | LB | 6'0, 215 | JR | 80.0 | 11.2% | 7.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Brian Anderson | LB | 5'10, 240 | SR | 62.5 | 8.8% | 13.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Picasso Nelson Jr. | DB | 5'10, 195 | SO | 46.5 | 6.5% | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Kalan Reed | DB | 5'11, 195 | SR | 44.0 | 6.2% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 |
Southern Miss | Cornell Armstrong | DB | 5'11, 180 | SO | 42.0 | 5.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Dylan Bradley | DL | 6'1, 265 | JR | 34.0 | 4.8% | 11.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Elijah Parker | LB | 6'2, 220 | JR | 33.5 | 4.7% | 6.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Devonta Foster | DB | 6'0, 190 | JR | 29.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Terrick Wright | LB | 6'2, 225 | SR | 29.0 | 4.1% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Southern Miss | Andrew Bolton | DL | 6'3, 304 | SR | 24.5 | 3.4% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Anthony Swain | LB | 6'2, 250 | SR | 23.5 | 3.3% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Darian Yancey | LB | 6'1, 250 | FR | 22.5 | 3.2% | 6.0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Trae Collins | DB | 5'11, 184 | SO | 22.5 | 3.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Washington | Korey Durkee | 6'4, 247 | SR | 45 | 43.0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 62.2% |
Washington | Jake Browning | 6'2, 206 | FR | 6 | 30.0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 66.7% |
Southern Miss | Tyler Sarrazin | 6'3, 204 | JR | 39 | 40.1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 46.2% |
Southern Miss | Matthew Moseley | 5'10, 163 | SR | 4 | 31.5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 125.0% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Washington | Tristan Vizcaino | 6'2, 205 | SO | 67 | 62.3 | 23 | 34.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | Cameron Van Winkle | 5'10, 184 | JR | 3 | 65.0 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Southern Miss | Stephen Brauchle | 6'1, 205 | JR | 91 | 59.4 | 14 | 15.4% | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Southern Miss | Parker Shaunfield | 6'0, 170 | FR | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Washington | Cameron Van Winkle | 5'10, 184 | JR | 44-44 | 13-17 | 76.5% |
Washington | Tristan Vizcaino | 6'2, 205 | SO | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Southern Miss | Stephen Brauchle | 6'1, 205 | JR | 44-48 | 10-13 | 76.9% |
Southern Miss | Parker Shaunfield | 6'0, 170 | FR | 22-22 | 2-5 | 40.0% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Washington | Chico McClatcher | 5'7, 176 | FR | 23 | 23.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Washington | Deontae Cooper | 5'11, 200 | JR | 3 | 13.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Southern Miss | Mike Thomas | 6'1, 200 | SR | 13 | 21.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Southern Miss | Ito Smith | 5'9, 195 | SO | 11 | 21.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Washington | Dante Pettis | 6'0, 185 | SO | 16 | 16.9 | 2 | 23 | 0 (0) |
Washington | Chico McClatcher | 5'7, 176 | FR | 4 | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Southern Miss | Jalen Richard | 5'8, 210 | SR | 20 | 4.4 | 0 | 12 | 3 (2) |
Southern Miss | Casey Martin | 5'10, 180 | SR | 5 | 4.4 | 0 | 8 | 1 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics