Going into this season, it was clear that Nick Saban has been updating his defense for the spread era. This year's National Championship will serve as a fantastic test of where that project stands.
The Crimson Tide routinely destroy pro-style teams, with Michigan State's 38-0 semifinal loss the latest example. But some high-profile losses against spread teams, including this year's against Ole Miss, leave room to wonder.
The "Saban struggles with the spread" trope is about to be vindicated or destroyed. Alabama faces Clemson's smashmouth spread and dual-threat, Heisman finalist QB Deshaun Watson with a title on the line.
Saban's teams have tripped up in part due to having overly complex defenses and too much size. Plus, it's really hard to stop legitimate dual-threats.
Before the no huddle took over, Saban maximized his absurd rosters by using multiple lineup packages for each game, all designed to stop particular schemes in particular situations. That complexity turned in on itself when Alabama tried to use it against up-tempo teams that rushed to run curl-flat or zone read before the Tide could get set.
Bama's simplified its lineups and evolved its roster.
During games, the Tide are more likely to change personnel to counter the opponent's and less likely to change personnel based on situations. Bama's also using more mass substitutions, like hockey line changes, to get its deep roster on the field without having so many packages.
In recent years, Bama's had personnel deficiencies (relatively speaking) in the secondary and at DE/OLB. The Tide have lacked lockdown corners, cover safeties and explosive pass rushers. While the Tide never lacked for space-eaters along the DL, smart inside linebackers, or run-support DBs, they have gotten into trouble against teams that could run enough to create one-on-one matchups for receivers.
Against Johnny Manziel's Texas A&M, the Tide were unable to get pressure or get adequate numbers to stop the run without either dropping a safety to play cover 3 or blitzing. When they did so, they were victimized by fade routes to Mike Evans.
It's clear Alabama has better coverage from its safeties in 2015, after moving former cornerbacks Geno Matias-Smith and All-SEC first-teamer Eddie Jackson inside and five-star cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to nickel.
Over the last few years, you could also count on the QB having some time to scan the field before attempting to beat Bama's tight coverages. Even that's not true anymore.
The Tide have slimmed down up front while still fielding the No. 1 rushing defense. Between Jonathan Allen and consensus All-American A'Shawn Robinson on the inside and Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson on the outside, they now get a pass rush vastly superior to that of any previous Saban-Tide defense:
Year | Total sacks by Bama's top four DL |
2015 | 31 |
2014 | 19.5 |
2013 | 13.5 |
2012 | 17 |
2011 | 19.5 |
2010 | 17 |
2009 | 18.5 |
2008 | 13.5 |
2007 | 18 |
The result has been a defense that ranks No. 1 virtually across the board. The one time all year it was damaged was in the September loss to Ole Miss. The Rebels still only posted 433 yards, 92 fewer than their season average otherwise, and were aided by a tipped 66-yard touchdown.
The X's and O's were never really the issue.
The Tide has three primary responses to spread offenses, each with a dozen variations. Bama's tactics are as thorough and modern against the spread as any in college football.
- Cover 7 is Saban's version of cover 4 and serves as the Tide's two-deep-safety scheme. The Tide has a few ways to play this to get the safeties in run support. Most involve tight coverage on the outside and rely on good tackling from the safeties.
- Cover 3 is what Saban is more famous for, even though Bama's made greater use of cover 7 over the last several years. Bama's take is to fashion this coverage around pattern matching, thus getting the best of traditional cover 3 and man coverage. That allows the defense to keep men in the box against spread teams.
- Bama's favorite anti-spread blitz is probably the ubiquitous "fire zone, but with man coverage principles" that most teams use. The keys are the corners holding up on islands without safeties helping over the top.
What about the dual-threat QB part? Because here comes the country's best.
The top two passer ratings by Bama opponents this year were by Ole Miss' Chad Kelly (171.35) and Tennessee's Josh Dobbs (139.38), each of whom stayed mobile enough to make a few plays on the run. Otherwise, the Tide shut down the mobile quarterbacks of Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State and LSU and demolished drop-back passers.
Watson's better, to say the least. He ranks both No. 5 in passer rating against Power 5 opponents (among QBs who've faced three or more) and No. 1 in QB rushing yards per game against the same.
Ideally for Clemson, Watson can force Alabama to spread itself thin. He could then punish the Tide for their choice to leave either their run front or deep coverage undermanned.
The Tigers can deploy Watson's legs with two tactics he used for a season-high 145 rushing yards against Oklahoma, and now he doesn't have to worry about staying fresh for a following game.
The first is their empty-backfield formation, which threatens the defense with quick passes on the perimeter and QB draws on the interior.
The second involves 11 personnel (one TE, one RB) and includes this G-lead run, adjusted to feature the 6'2, 210-pound QB like those Saban-killers of the past, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow:
Using the QB as the main runner and the RB as his lead blocker creates a dilemma. Saban refers to it as the "11th gap." How to get enough defenders to the point of attack without getting shredded if it turns out to be a pass is not a problem that Alabama is unique in struggling to solve.
Can Alabama align in sound schemes that won't allow Watson to get loose? And can the passing game make Bama pay for that?
The best defensive response to many QB runs is somewhat counter-intuitive.
Dropping a safety down allows the LBs to stay near the line and makes it harder for the offense to outnumber the defense inside. But it makes it easier for the offense to catch the defense in bad matchups and to use motion to muck up run-support defenders. If the QB is a running threat, the offense can always force safeties to make tackles.
For instance, this kind of motion worked wonders for Ohio State last year against Oregon's cover 3 defenses:
Because of motion, Alabama DBs in cover 3 would be running to their new assignments as the play was taking off, buying that much more time for blockers to spring Watson. Here, the two left DBs would be backpedaling away from Watson at the snap.
In a two-deep scheme, Alabama could adjust easily. The Tide can get their free safety (F, Matias-Smith) into position to outnumber the offense at the point of attack. And the defense is still sound against a pass:
The boundary corner (left C above) can respond to motion by becoming a man-coverage defender on the next receiver, the tight end. The FS now reads for run or pass. However the Tide play it and however the Tigers block it, either the free safety or boundary corner will be an unblocked defender. The balance of having two deep safeties means Alabama can adjust to different schemes and get safeties in position.
To beat this, Clemson has to either blow up the Alabama line with double teams and clear enough room for runners that the X's and O's become moot or beat Bama with deep passes.
Clemson would like the idea of any game coming down to safeties making open field tackles on Watson. But springing him past this front will be hard, given the exceptional line and interior LBs Reggie Ragland and Reuben Foster.
While Clemson has been effective at quick routes, throwing downfield while protecting Watson against Alabama's pass rush is a tall order. The deep pass is not one of the Tigers' many strengths. But if 6'3 Charone Peake can win jump balls against 5'10 Cyrus Jones, that would require Bama's safeties to stay in deep zones rather than coming to control the run.
The secondary is the weakest point (relatively) of this defense. Whether Clemson will be able to exploit it is the question.
The answer to that could determine whether Saban's solved the spread riddle.