Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
1. All the right moves (on paper)
Two wins is tangible improvement over zero, but the record didn't fill you in on how much of Miami's house Martin began to get in order. This team was close to something better.
The bad news: the RedHawks' offense has to be rebuilt, and if you've been reading these MAC previews, you're seeing that quite a few teams were young last year and can be expected to improve.
We always like to think of improvement and program building as linear exercises: You improve, then you improve a little bit more, then you improve a little bit more. But like everything else in life, it's far more jagged and inconsistent than that. You lurch forward, then stumble backwards. Sure, if you've got a big leap in you, it's probably happening within three years, but long-term progress is never quite as clean as we would prefer.
Success happens out of order. Chuck Martin probably knows this pretty well. The Miami (Ohio) head coach won two Division II national titles at Grand Valley State in 2005-06, then came up just short three times. In his first year as Notre Dame's offensive coordinator (2012), the Irish ranked 21st in Off. S&P+ and reached the BCS championship game; in his second, the Irish fell to 36th and 9-4. And in two years in Oxford, he has engineered significant improvement (Miami rose from 125th to 99th in S&P+ in his first year on the job), then weathered massive regression (back to 117th in 2015).
The 2015 tailspin was no major surprise, of course. While the defense improved slightly (from 102nd in Def. S&P+ to 95th), the offense started over. And I mean started over. The leading passer, rusher, and receiver and three multi-year starters from the 2014 offensive line were all gone, and Martin handed the reins to his guys. That meant two freshmen quarterbacks throwing 249 passes, four freshman running backs carrying the ball 258 times, and freshmen and sophomores combining to catch 105 passes. Freshmen and sophomores accounted for 27 of 60 starts on the line, as well.
Unless you're signing four- and five-star guys, an offense this young simply isn't going to succeed. There's almost no chance. But in the name of program building, Miami took its lumps, scored more than 14 points just twice in the first eight games (once against Presbyterian, if that counts), and showed just enough late-season development to make you think the growing pains could prove worthwhile.
And then Martin went out and signed another stellar recruiting class. Despite just a 5-19 record in two years, the RedHawks inked the No. 3 class in the MAC according to the 247Sports Composite. That was after signing the No. 2 class the year before. Per 247, Miami now boasts two three-star quarterbacks, two three-star running backs, six three-star receivers, eight three-star offensive linemen, four three-star defensive linemen, two three-star linebackers, and five three-star defensive backs. In the MAC, that will play. Martin brought in a load of Notre Dame transfers when he came to town, but the long-term strategy is to build with five-year players, and he's doing that.
A lot of this talent is still of the freshman or sophomore variety, so Miami probably won't be in position to suddenly compete for the MAC East title or anything. Still, Martin is methodically building a deep, athletic squad, and if he can keep morale up for one more year and maybe win a few more close games -- the RedHawks are just 3-8 in games decided by one possession over the last two years -- then this slow approach might begin to bear fruit in 2017. Hell, there's an off-chance it will do so this fall.
2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 113 | Final S&P+ Rk: 117 | ||||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Win Expectancy |
vs. S&P+ | Performance vs. Vegas |
5-Sep | Presbyterian | N/A | 26-7 | W | 64% | 100% | +10.6 | |
12-Sep | at Wisconsin | 32 | 0-58 | L | 3% | 0% | -24.8 | -26.0 |
19-Sep | Cincinnati | 72 | 33-37 | L | 53% | 58% | +12.0 | +15.0 |
26-Sep | at Western Kentucky | 15 | 14-56 | L | 3% | 0% | -20.1 | -21.5 |
3-Oct | at Kent State | 109 | 14-20 | L | 5% | 1% | +2.8 | +4.5 |
10-Oct | at Ohio | 69 | 3-34 | L | 6% | 0% | -9.7 | -15.0 |
17-Oct | Northern Illinois | 66 | 12-45 | L | 3% | 0% | -20.0 | -17.5 |
24-Oct | at Western Michigan | 51 | 13-35 | L | 14% | 2% | +1.4 | +3.5 |
29-Oct | Buffalo | 98 | 24-29 | L | 13% | 3% | +5.4 | +2.5 |
7-Nov | Eastern Michigan | 122 | 28-13 | W | 85% | 100% | +18.9 | +10.0 |
14-Nov | Akron | 84 | 28-37 | L | 20% | 5% | +0.2 | -2.0 |
21-Nov | at Massachusetts | 100 | 20-13 | W | 60% | 84% | +20.2 | +17.0 |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 16.5 | 121 | 32.4 | 95 |
Points Per Game | 17.9 | 117 | 32.0 | 95 |
2. Quickly hopeless
The Miami defense really did improve in 2015. The RedHawks improved from 113th to 77th in Rushing S&P+ and from 97th to 72nd in Passing S&P+. Dreadful field position numbers (which are obviously caused in part by special teams) and slow starts prevented the overall defensive ratings from improving too much, but really the biggest drag on the defense was the complete and total lack of help from an offense manned by freshmen.
Luckily, those freshmen were playing like sophomores by the end of the year.
- First 7 games vs. FBS competition: 3.3 yards per play, 216.4 yards per game, 12.7 points per game
- Last 4 games: 5.4 yards per play, 268.0 yards per game, 25.0 points per game
After continuously falling short of S&P+ projections because S&P+ couldn't get a read on just how bad the offense was, Miami overachieved compared to projections down the stretch.
- Performance vs. S&P+ projection (first 8 games): -6.0 PPG
- Performance vs. S&P+ projection (last 4 games): +11.1 PPG
This is a good sign. You can afford to bottom out in a youth movement as long as you begin to see improvement, and it appears that was the case here.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.29 | 49 | IsoPPP+ | 89.0 | 105 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 35.4% | 117 | Succ. Rt. + | 83.8 | 119 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 33.8 | 122 | Def. FP+ | 35.0 | 125 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 3.5 | 120 | Redzone S&P+ | 83.3 | 121 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 28.4 | ACTUAL | 31 | +2.6 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 109 | 111 | 119 | 105 |
RUSHING | 110 | 113 | 117 | 111 |
PASSING | 80 | 102 | 109 | 91 |
Standard Downs | 102 | 117 | 76 | |
Passing Downs | 116 | 111 | 121 |
Q1 Rk | 108 | 1st Down Rk | 114 |
Q2 Rk | 119 | 2nd Down Rk | 79 |
Q3 Rk | 106 | 3rd Down Rk | 110 |
Q4 Rk | 111 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Billy Bahl | 6'4, 248 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8470 | 98 | 220 | 1409 | 8 | 13 | 44.5% | 20 | 8.3% | 5.3 |
Drew Kummer | 59 | 123 | 897 | 7 | 6 | 48.0% | 5 | 3.9% | 6.7 | ||||
Gus Ragland | 6'3, 213 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7767 | 20 | 29 | 196 | 3 | 0 | 69.0% | 1 | 3.3% | 6.3 |
Kyle Kramer | 6'2, 207 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7783 | |||||||||
Noah Wezensky | 6'3, 195 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8132 |
3. A training wheels offense
At Notre Dame, Martin proved he could pull the strings pretty well with a young quarterback. The Irish went 12-1 in 2012 despite redshirt freshman Everett Golson taking a majority of the snaps; Martin protected him with the same type of "pass on standard downs, run on passing downs" approach he attempted in 2015.
It makes perfect sense, really. You probably can't trust a young QB to make the right decision frequently or make big plays on second-and-9 or third-and-7, so you put him under pressure the smallest possible number of times. When you've got the down-and-distance advantage, give him easy passes in minimal-pressure situations. When you've got second-and-9, run the ball and at least try to limit his exposure to pressure to one play instead of two.
Though Gus Ragland got reps in plenty of rushing situations -- he attempted just 30 passes (including sacks) and rushed 56 times -- and was Miami's most efficient ball-carrier, Billy Bahl was the primary QB. The true freshman from Woodstock, Ill., struggled mightily in the early going (and I do mean mightily: Bahl completed 37 percent of his passes with one touchdown to nine picks over the first half of the year) while senior Drew Kummer took most of the snaps. But down the stretch it was the Bahl Show. After managing a wretched 59.0 passer rating in the first six games, he improved to 103.8 in the next three and 130.5 in the final three. In wins over EMU and UMass, he completed 22 of 37 passes for 279 yards, two scores, and just one interception.
So do the training wheels come off in 2016? Martin and co-coordinators George Barnett and Eric Koehler (each former Grand Valley State assistants under Martin) might soon have the experience necessary to do what they actually want to do with this personnel. So what exactly is that?
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
Alonzo Smith | RB | 5'9, 225 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7611 | 124 | 498 | 5 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 33.1% | 1 | 1 |
Kenny Young | RB | 5'10, 200 | So. | NR | 0.7433 | 66 | 284 | 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 31.8% | 5 | 5 |
Gus Ragland | QB | 6'3, 213 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7767 | 56 | 338 | 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 44.6% | 1 | 0 |
Leonard Ross | RB | 5'11, 206 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8028 | 50 | 165 | 0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 26.0% | 1 | 1 |
Spencer McInnis | RB | 5'9, 206 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7300 | 30 | 85 | 0 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 23.3% | 0 | 0 |
Drew Kummer | QB | 21 | 67 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 28.6% | 4 | 0 | ||||
Billy Bahl | QB | 6'4, 248 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8470 | 19 | 74 | 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 26.3% | 4 | 2 |
Maurice Thomas | RB | 5'11, 176 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8267 | 18 | 206 | 0 | 11.4 | 16.6 | 50.0% | 2 | 0 |
Rokeem Williams | WR | 6'1, 198 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8060 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
Isaiah Hill | RB | 5'10, 216 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7744 |
4. Two different directions
The Bahl-vs.-Ragland battle is a fascinating one, not only because both players bring quite a few interesting traits to the table -- Bahl is a huge pocket-passer prototype, Ragland an effective runner and potentially efficient passer -- but because of the effect each could have on the rest of the offense.
With Bahl, one assumes the passing game would take on a larger load this year. That could mean excellent things for a receiving corps with members that took turns thriving. Chris Hudson, now a sophomore, caught 13 passes for 211 yards over the first five games, when Kummer was the main QB. Sam Martin caught 10 passes for 229 yards in Games 8 and 9. Jared Murphy caught seven for 91 in Game 10. Rokem Williams caught 13 for 260 in Games 11 and 12.
All four of these wideouts return, as do tight end Ryan Smith and a batch of youngsters (sophomore James Gardner and three high-two-star redshirt freshmen). Incoming frosh Stori Emerson, meanwhile, was one of the stars of the 2016 signing class.
With Ragland, meanwhile, the running game might come to the forefront. That could mean excellent things. Ragland himself was both efficient and potentially explosive, rushing for at least five yards on 45 percent of his carries and proving that he knew what to do in the open field. But Ragland's presence could help a set of young running backs. Alonzo Smith shouldered a heavy load last year with little to show for it, Kenny Young fumbled far too much to remain on the field (he carried 10 times against Presbyterian and only five times per game thereafter). Leonard Ross had 15 carries for 88 yards against Cincinnati and Buffalo but 35 for 77 otherwise. Maurice Thomas showed serious explosiveness but never earned the coaches' trust (he carried more than three times in a game just once).
Even with the line returning three starters and seven guys with starting experience, the run game needs all the help it can get, and in Ragland, Miami has a guy capable of captaining a more run-heavy offense. I assume Bahl wins the starting job, and it will be interesting to see what role Ragland maintains moving forward. But Ragland was better on a per-play basis than either Bahl or Kummer last year. He might still have a shot at the starting job.
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
Yds/ Target |
%SD | Success Rate |
IsoPPP |
Rokeem Williams | WR | 6'1, 198 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8060 | 70 | 33 | 543 | 47.1% | 21.1% | 7.8 | 61.4% | 40.0% | 1.70 |
Sam Martin | WR | 6'3, 199 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8181 | 59 | 29 | 542 | 49.2% | 17.8% | 9.2 | 52.5% | 40.7% | 2.03 |
Jared Murphy | WR | 5'10, 184 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8026 | 52 | 29 | 439 | 55.8% | 15.7% | 8.4 | 59.6% | 44.2% | 1.72 |
Chris Hudson | WR | 6'6, 226 | So. | NR | 0.7000 | 40 | 18 | 286 | 45.0% | 12.1% | 7.2 | 47.5% | 35.0% | 2.03 |
Ryan Smith | TE | 6'4, 261 | Jr. | NR | 0.7000 | 30 | 21 | 251 | 70.0% | 9.1% | 8.4 | 63.3% | 66.7% | 1.16 |
Fred McRae IV | WR | 5'10, 180 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7100 | 19 | 7 | 62 | 36.8% | 5.7% | 3.3 | 63.2% | 15.8% | 2.07 |
Kenny Young | RB | 5'10, 200 | So. | NR | 0.7433 | 16 | 13 | 67 | 81.3% | 4.8% | 4.2 | 56.3% | 37.5% | 0.81 |
Alonzo Smith | RB | 5'9, 225 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7611 | 14 | 10 | 79 | 71.4% | 4.2% | 5.6 | 35.7% | 35.7% | 1.46 |
James Gardner | WR | 6'4, 219 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8295 | 8 | 3 | 72 | 37.5% | 2.4% | 9.0 | 62.5% | 37.5% | 2.23 |
Spencer McInnis | RB | 5'9, 206 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7300 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 50.0% | 2.4% | 6.1 | 50.0% | 37.5% | 1.57 |
Nate Becker | TE | 6'5, 265 | So. | NR | NR | 3 | 3 | 32 | 100.0% | 0.9% | 10.7 | 66.7% | 100.0% | 0.94 |
Sam Shisso | WR | 6'5, 213 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7865 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 66.7% | 0.9% | 8.7 | 66.7% | 33.3% | 2.84 |
Alexx Zielinski | TE | 6'4, 237 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7919 | |||||||||
Cedric Asseh | WR | 6'0, 182 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7826 | |||||||||
Luke Mayock | WR | 6'5, 201 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7752 | |||||||||
Stori Emerson | WR | 6'3, 210 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8244 | |||||||||
DeAndre Huff | WR | 6'0, 190 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8178 | |||||||||
Tyler Fleetwood | WR | 6'3, 200 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7906 |
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 86.7 | 2.56 | 3.24 | 33.7% | 53.3% | 25.2% | 80.7 | 4.0% | 9.1% |
Rank | 119 | 113 | 67 | 113 | 121 | 123 | 97 | 44 | 92 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | 2015 Starts | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Trevan Brown | LT | 12 | 43 | |||||
Collin Buchanan | RT | 6'5, 317 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7500 | 11 | 23 | |
Brandyn Cook | C | 6 | 16 | |||||
Zach Hovey | LG | 6'4, 279 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7793 | 10 | 10 | |
Sam McCollum | RG | 6'2, 306 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7932 | 10 | 10 | |
Mitch Palmer | C | 6'2, 278 | So. | NR | 0.7583 | 6 | 6 | |
Terry Davis | RT | 6'4, 290 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8358 | 3 | 4 | |
Jimmy Rousher | RG | 6'2, 288 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7677 | 1 | 1 | |
Jordan Rigg | RG | 6'3, 287 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7533 | 1 | 1 | |
Luke Adams | LT | 6'5, 303 | So. | NR | NR | 0 | 0 | |
Randy Heideman | LG | 6'6, 309 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8375 | 0 | 0 | |
Ryan Mullen | RG | 6'2, 290 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8008 | 0 | 0 | |
Zach Swarts | OL | 6'4, 286 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7583 | 0 | 0 | |
Matt Skibinski | OL | 6'5, 276 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8314 | |||
Ian Leever | OL | 6'5, 295 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8339 | |||
Danny Godlevske | OL | 6'3, 290 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8356 | |||
Trent Maynard | OL | 6'5, 325 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8329 | |||
Tommy Doyle | OL | 6'7, 275 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8236 | |||
Dalton Strunk | OL | 6'6, 290 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7893 |
5. Stocking up
Miami's offensive line had no chance last year. Never mind the youth (freshman Sam McCollum started 10 games, sophomore Zach Hovey started 10, freshman Mitch Palmer started six, and freshman Jordan Rigg started one), the shuffling was devastating. Because of injury and general depth-chart uncertainty, Miami started nine different players at least once; that can work out well down the line, but a lack of continuity can kill you within a given season.
It will be interesting to see if the depth chart is a bit more stable in 2016. The seven players with starting experience do return, but three-star sophomore Ryan Mullen and three-star redshirt freshmen Matt Skibinski and Ian Leaver could both crack the rotation, if not at the beginning of the season, then by the end. One assumes Martin will want to redshirt each of four high-upside true freshmen, but there's an interesting mix of experience and young talent here, and there might be more shuffling in 2016 because of it.
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 1.36 | 107 | IsoPPP+ | 96.5 | 77 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 38.9% | 43 | Succ. Rt. + | 102.0 | 55 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 26.4 | 125 | Off. FP+ | 25.0 | 127 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity | 4.5 | 74 | Redzone S&P+ | 100.7 | 68 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 16.5 | ACTUAL | 17.0 | +0.5 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 68 | 68 | 55 | 77 |
RUSHING | 67 | 77 | 44 | 98 |
PASSING | 80 | 72 | 77 | 71 |
Standard Downs | 58 | 39 | 84 | |
Passing Downs | 79 | 92 | 77 |
Q1 Rk | 121 | 1st Down Rk | 89 |
Q2 Rk | 66 | 2nd Down Rk | 100 |
Q3 Rk | 87 | 3rd Down Rk | 90 |
Q4 Rk | 11 |
6. Playing it less safe on defense
Notre Dame made the title game in 2012 by in essence playing a bend-don't-break style on both sides of the ball. The Irish tried to protect their QB from too many awkward downs and distances, and on defense, they formed an umbrella and tried to force mistakes for linebacker Manti Te'o to clean up.
Martin hasn't maintained that same sensibility in Oxford. His Miami defense, manned by coordinator Matt Pawlowski (his GVSU defensive coordinator until 2008), wanted to attack you -- the RedHawks were willing to risk big plays in the name of three-and-outs and turnovers. And while they didn't make quite enough havoc plays for this approach to pay off to any major degree, the efficiency was solid ... and the big plays were pretty big. Miami gave up just 57 gains of 20-plus yards (53rd in FBS), but eight went for 50-plus (76th).
Miami attacked the run on standard downs and attacked the passer on passing downs. The approach worked, which was exciting considering the youth in the front seven. Then-sophomores Ikeem Allen (tackle), AJ Burdine (tackle), Zach Smierciak (end), and Paul Moses (linebacker) all played roles in this aggressive front seven, and all of them are scheduled to return.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 101.9 | 2.62 | 2.83 | 33.6% | 68.9% | 21.2% | 160.4 | 7.4% | 9.5% |
Rank | 51 | 28 | 34 | 17 | 88 | 49 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Bryson Albright | DE | 12 | 40.5 | 5.8% | 12.5 | 7.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
JT Jones | DE | 6'3, 263 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7655 | 12 | 39.5 | 5.7% | 14.5 | 9.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Ikeem Allen | NT | 6'1, 272 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7685 | 12 | 25.0 | 3.6% | 8.0 | 4.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
AJ Burdine | DT | 6'2, 285 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7733 | 12 | 18.5 | 2.7% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Zach Smierciak | DE | 6'2, 247 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7900 | 12 | 17.5 | 2.5% | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Mitchell Winters | NT | 12 | 17.0 | 2.4% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Austin Gearing | DE | 6'5, 250 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7600 | 12 | 12.0 | 1.7% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nate Trawick | DT | 5'11, 318 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8141 | 8 | 7.5 | 1.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wesley Scott | DL | 10 | 6.0 | 0.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Quinn Calcagno | DE | 6'4, 238 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8100 | 10 | 4.0 | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deion Cineus | DT | 6'2, 316 | So. | NR | 0.7000 | |||||||||
Mack Duffin | DT | 6'2, 279 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7383 | |||||||||
Dean Lemon | DE | 6'2, 249 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8007 | |||||||||
Benjamin Kimpler | DE | 6'6, 240 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8026 |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Kent Kern | MLB | 11 | 63.0 | 9.0% | 12.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Paul Moses | OLB | 6'0, 227 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8191 | 12 | 51.0 | 7.3% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
TJ Williams | STAR | 6'0, 205 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | NR | 11 | 37.5 | 5.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Brad Koenig | OLB | 6'1, 218 | So. | NR | NR | 12 | 20.0 | 2.9% | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Josh Dooley | LB | 12 | 13.0 | 1.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Junior McMullen | MLB | 6'0, 236 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8332 | 10 | 12.5 | 1.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Brad Earnest | LB | 6'1, 229 | So. | NR | NR | 5 | 9.0 | 1.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matt Smallbone | LB | 6'4, 232 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7400 | |||||||||
Sam Connolly | LB | 6'1, 239 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7483 |
7. The front seven could be rock solid
It does bear mentioning that two key contributors are gone. Linebacker Kent Kern and end Bryson Albright combined for 24.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks, four passes defensed, and 15 percent of Miami's overall tackles. Kern was maybe the single best run defender, and Albright was one half of an excellent pass rushing combination. Losing these two means Miami isn't assured of improving up front even with all the returning talent.
Still, it's hard to worry too much about the front seven. JT Jones, the other half of that pass rushing duo, returns, and Allen is a solid disruptor in the middle. Smierciak showed potential as a backup, converted quarterback Austin Gearing is still around, and youngsters like sophomore tackle Nate Trawick, redshirt freshman Dean Lemon, and sophomore linebackers Junior McMullen and Brad Koenig could fill aggressive roles. Pawlowski has a lot of pieces here, and while it might be hard to match last year's No. 3 ranking in Adj. Sack Rate, I would be surprised if the RedHawks fell out of the top 25.
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Heath Harding (2014) |
CB | 5'10, 185 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8417 | 12 | 85.5 | 12.7% | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Brison Burris | S | 12 | 62.0 | 8.9% | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Bert Birdsall | CB | 5'11, 170 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7706 | 12 | 35.5 | 5.1% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Marshall Taylor | CB | 11 | 34.5 | 4.9% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Buchi Okafor | S | 6'1, 197 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7200 | 11 | 32.5 | 4.7% | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
De'Andre Montgomery | S | 6'1, 217 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7644 | 10 | 32.5 | 4.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Tony Reid | S | 5'11, 194 | Jr. | NR | NR | 10 | 28.5 | 4.1% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Joshua Allen | S | 6'0, 200 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8274 | 11 | 10.5 | 1.5% | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Allan Koikoi | CB | 5'11, 193 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7611 | 12 | 10.0 | 1.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Daryus Thompson | DB | 6'0, 185 | So. | NR | 0.7000 | 11 | 8.0 | 1.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deondre Daniels | CB | 5'10, 188 | So. | NR | NR | 11 | 7.5 | 1.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matt Merimee | S | 6'3, 205 | So. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7783 | |||||||||
Kendrell McFadden | S | 6'2, 205 | RSFr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8914 | |||||||||
Tyrece Speaight | DB | 5'11, 183 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8339 | |||||||||
Travion Banks | DB | 6'0, 175 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8189 |
8. Late growth
Havoc isn't everything, but Miami's secondary certainly lacked a bit from a disruptiveness standpoint. The RedHawks ranked 16th in defensive line havoc but only 106th in the secondary http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-miami-oh-advanced-statistical-profile. Opponents were allowed to complete 62 percent of their passes with a 137.2 passer rating.
Of course, like the offense, the defense improved in this regard down the stretch. Miami allowed only a 45 percent completion rate and an 89.7 passer rating over the final three games. Granted, some of that had to do with the level of competition, but it was a sign that when the defense got at least a little bit of support from the offense, it could make some plays. That's encouraging. So is the fact that, of the 10 DBs who made at least 7.5 tackles last year (Miami played a lot of guys in the secondary), eight are back. And so is corner Heath Harding, a leader in 2014 who missed most of the season with injury.
So you've got Harding replacing departing CB starter Marshall Taylor, and you've got a choice of about three experienced options (and Rivals four-star Kendrell McFadden) to replace safety Brison Burris. This is a good place to be.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Christian Koch | 82 | 38.4 | 2 | 28 | 14 | 51.2% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Kaleb Patterson | 31 | 60.5 | 5 | 2 | 16.1% | ||
Nick Dowd | 5'8, 205 | So. | 10 | 61.7 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Kaleb Patterson | 22-24 | 7-9 | 77.8% | 1-2 | 50.0% | ||
Nick Dowd | 5'8, 205 | So. | 2-2 | 1-1 | 100.0% | 0-0 | N/A |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2016 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Maurice Thomas | KR | 5'11, 176 | So. | 27 | 17.3 | 0 |
Fred McRae IV | KR | 5'10, 180 | Sr. | 8 | 18.9 | 0 |
Jared Murphy | PR | 5'10, 184 | Jr. | 6 | 8.7 | 0 |
Fred McRae IV | PR | 5'10, 180 | Sr. | 4 | 10.5 | 0 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams S&P+ | 106 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 62 |
Punt Return Success Rate | 58 |
Kick Return Success Rate | 108 |
Punt Success Rate | 101 |
Kickoff Success Rate | 107 |
9. Field position assistance would be great
Because I haven't completely stripped special teams impact from the defensive ratings, and because field position plays a role in offensive and defensive ratings, Miami's defense saw its overall ranking tamped down by some mostly awful special teams work. Jared Murphy and Fred McRae IV were reasonably efficient in punt returns, but kick returns, punts, and kickoffs were all very substandard. That Miami will have a new guy at punter, kickoffs, and place-kicker is scary ... but not THAT scary. The bar isn't incredibly high. Still, replacing starters doesn't frequently lead to massive improvement.
2016 Schedule & Projection Factors
2016 Schedule |
||||
Date | Opponent | Proj. S&P+ Rk | Proj. Margin | Win Probability |
3-Sep | at Iowa | 38 | -22.4 | 10% |
10-Sep | Eastern Illinois | NR | 12.3 | 76% |
17-Sep | Western Kentucky | 45 | -12.9 | 23% |
24-Sep | at Cincinnati | 70 | -15.7 | 18% |
1-Oct | Ohio | 95 | -2.1 | 45% |
8-Oct | at Akron | 97 | -7.9 | 32% |
15-Oct | Kent State | 104 | 1.2 | 53% |
22-Oct | at Bowling Green | 60 | -17.7 | 15% |
29-Oct | at Eastern Michigan | 121 | 0.3 | 51% |
4-Nov | Central Michigan | 85 | -4.6 | 40% |
12-Nov | at Buffalo | 109 | -3.1 | 43% |
22-Nov | Ball State | 101 | 0.8 | 52% |
Projected wins: 4.6 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | -32.3% (116) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 90 / 105 |
2015 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | -14 / -12.0 |
2015 TO Luck/Game | -0.9 |
Returning Production (Off. / Def.) | 79% (84%, 74%) |
2015 Second-order wins (difference) | 3.5 (-0.5) |
10. A tough start, and then clear skies
EMU and Miami were the two worst teams in a solid MAC last season, and while I tried pretty hard to talk myself into the Eagles, I mostly failed. Chris Creighton will probably need a fourth year to make something of the husk of a program he inherited.
Chuck Martin might need a fourth year, too, but of the two, I'm much more confident in Miami surging forward this season. With no results to sell, Martin has been outrecruiting basically all of the MAC not named P.J. Fleck, and while a youth movement doesn't necessarily result in progress by itself, a lot of the key pieces of the youth movement looked a lot better in November than they did in September.
With seven games against teams projected 95th or worse (and 4.6 projected wins despite only a No. 107 projection), it wouldn't take that much unexpected improvement for the RedHawks to challenge for a bowl. But the key will be surviving early. Of the four projected top-70 teams on the docket, three come up in the first four weeks of the year. The odds are good that even an improved Miami team will be 1-3 when Ohio visits on October 1. And that's when the season really begins. If the RedHawks can maintain confidence in September, they could be a team worth watching in October and November.