Assign homework, and people might complete it. In the latest PAPN, Bill and Godfrey talk about the PAPN Homework Assignment from a couple of weeks ago: Talk about a hard job and how you'd go about winning there. This leads to a lengthy discussion on Paul Johnson and the spread option, "going crazy" at ULM, attracting talent to Army, what Moneyball in college football might mean, and how to implement it.
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Below are each of the 10 e-mails we discuss on the show. We cannot thank you guys enough for caring enough to write this many words. Everyone gets an A+ on their homework.
Joey on Georgia Tech
I had another for you. In the same vein as "tough jobs will always be tough jobs" as has been discussed lately, Georgia Tech is something of a tough Power-5 job in the same way that other more academically prestigious programs might -- an academically challenging and narrow school, a relatively small alumni base (and therefore a relatively smaller budget to work with), and so forth. Obviously the program has its upsides, such as being in perhaps the most fertile recruiting region in the country and plenty of historical success to point at. But, with that academic component, that will always be a component that makes the job tough.
Where I wanted to go with this, though, is how the "tough job" aspect may have affected the rest of the country in its analysis of the "Paul Johnson experiment". Johnson became the first in the "modern" era of college football to bring his offense to a Power-5 (then-BCS) program back in 2008, and in the time since has had some widely varying levels of success, with high peaks and low valleys. (Besides 2015's 3-win season, there was also the 2010 season that saw 6 wins, but a loss to Kansas and an Independence Bowl loss to Air Force...ew.) That said, as much as college football and its offenses tend to be the very definition of "keeping up with the Joneses", it's a little telling that no other Power-5 programs have brought in someone like Ken Niumatololo or another from the Paul Johnson coaching tree to run a similar offensive system.
My question to you, now, is how would that lack of national adoption have changed if Paul Johnson had elected to take his offense to a school that was less of a "tough job", and potentially had more success than he's had at Georgia Tech as a result. Would we have seen an offense like that by now at a school where it's a little easier to get more talent on the roster, or is the system itself just so "unsexy" that it's only worth trying out at the very toughest jobs?
Todd on ULM
The teams that have really broken through seem to follow two models:
1. Do something really different on offense. For example, Randy Walker at Northwestern.
2. Act as a waypoint for discarded talent that hasn't made it at the Alabamas of the world. One good example is Colorado State under Jim McElwain.
A program that could merge both is ULM. Here's what I'd do:
1. Implement the Tom Osborne Nebraska option system on offense. No one is running it anymore and most non-power conference teams are focused on stopping the spread. They don't have the defensive talent up front to disrupt a traditional option team.
2. Defense style is dictated by opponents. Utah showed you can crush a Nick Saban defense if you're not able to defend the right things.
3. Split recruiting evenly between regular high school talent, focusing on the non-power programs, and transfer / JUCO talent.
The reason this works is there is a total smorgasbord of high-level talent that will never play at SEC schools. A'Shawn Robinson is unreal, but the guy 2 spots behind him, who never plays, is probably a high 4-star guy. He is your target. Start recruiting their high school coaches at the end of their redshirt year, when a reality may be starting to set in, but they can transfer with 4 years left. These guys went to Alabama convinced they would make it to the NFL, but smart ones will realize if they can't climb the depth chart or just don't fit in at a place like Alabama.
The benefit to focusing on these guys is they have a ton of talent, way more than at a place like ULL, but haven't clicked. Say you have 50 guys on the roster who are standard ULM talent and 50 guys, albeit short timers due to transfer rules, who are SEC / Big 12 castoffs. You only need a hit rate of 25% on those castoffs to have a starting roster with half Sun Belt and half lower end SEC talent. Remember, you don't need them to start at Alabama, just be good enough to beat ULL and Troy.
This is also a great deal for quarterback recruiting. There are a lot of super raw, talented "quarterbacks" who just can't learn to throw well enough to play in the SEC, but can run and throw well enough to meet requirements for a system that throws like Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech needs his quarterbacks to throw. Quarterbacks in particular can be drawn to systems that fit their skill set - that's partially why Stanford can recruit quarterbacks so well.
Essentially, recruiting is a Bill Snyder model, but to a place closer to talent and with less focus on riskier JUCO players. Disruptive, different offenses have been shown to work over and over again. Sure, there's risk, but no effort like ULM is surefire.
Chris on Hawaii
As a Navy fan I never want to see this happen because I love the job he is doing, but Hawaii could hire Ivin Jasper. Jasper could hire Craig Candeto as OC to assist in running the triple option and bring in a Buddy Green disciple like Steve Johns or Justin Davis to build a "bend don’t break" defense. In three to four years Hawaii becomes "Navy West".
Sam on anybody
I think this is a great topic and it reminds me of Dynasty mode in NCAA Football. I used to play it all the time with my friends in college, and even though I went to FSU, I would always pick the worst team in the game and try to make them great. My strategy for succeeding at one of these small programs would be based on non-conference scheduling, recruiting, and scheme.
For non conference scheduling, I would follow the "Bill Snyder approach." Schedule a bunch of cupcakes the first few years, and if you have to play a Power 5 team for monetary reasons, schedule teams like Purdue and Kansas. Also, schedule at least 2 FCS opponents every year. When I played Dynasty mode, I would schedule all FCS teams out of conference the first year just to pad my win total. Sure enough, my prestige level went up and I was able to recruit better players.
People might complain about the opponent quality, but strength of schedule only matters if you are trying to win a national title. Your average college football fan is not dissecting Western Kentucky or Georgia Southern’s schedule. They say "Wow, Georgia Southern won 10 games!" or "Oh, Georgia State made a bowl. Good for them!" One flaw to scheduling like this is it will hurt your home game attendance in the short term playing a bunch of bad teams. My counter to this would be that fans will get over this if their school is winning. It is better to be 8-2 and hosting Savannah State than 2-8 and hosting Boise State.
For recruiting I would follow the "Terry Bowden approach." Take any player kicked off a Power 5 school or anyone that cannot qualify academically to a bigger school. When I was in college, my friends and I would joke that any time a player was dismissed from an ACC or SEC school they were headed to North Alabama. While you might take a PR hit, you will get players like Janoris Jenkins and Preston Parker on your football roster, giving you the ability to win more games and be able to say to recruits that you send players to the League. I would also take any and all transfers. I played as FAU in Dynasty mode and in year 2 or 3 had Isaiah Crowell randomly transfer to my school. I rode him to a Heisman trophy and an improbable National title win over Oklahoma on a Hail Mary. While that wouldn’t happen in real life, you could still get to 8-9 wins and a New Orleans Bowl with some good transfer players.
For scheme I would run a Big 12 spread tempo offense and on defense I would run a 3-3-5 or a 4-2-5. Because building a program is selling your brand as much as it is winning games, I think you need to have a system that focuses more on offense in order to make your games as entertaining as possible. While the spread or air raid usually leads to a few dud performances each year, you can withstand a few losses because you are not trying to win a national title. These schemes put more receivers and defensive backs on the field and from a recruiting standpoint it is easier to find good skill players than it is lineman.
I think my plan would work for about 5 years, and while it might ultimately lead to NCAA sanctions, I think all of the winning would make it worth it.
Andrew on Army
Here's what I think amounts to a way forward for Army. I think the option and Monken are a solid foundation, but here's what I think needs sprucing up. Disclaimer, these are only the opinions of myself, a graduate who did not play football for the school. My DIII at best talent would not have helped.
Recruiting: the filters of size and academics limit pool of recruits but lack of a clear path to the NFL is an impediment. West Point should go to the Army and ask that any drafted player would have his year group deferred for the length of his NFL career. Essentially, if the NFL drafted a cadet, they would graduate but not commission and start their Army commitment until their NFL career ended. This is straightforward and something you can pitch to recruits. Essentially, the Army would lose a couple of new Lieutenants in one year and gain them later, as opposed to the current system where they would commission and then try to get out of their commitment as soon as possible. If a cadet proved very NFL successful, perhaps 5 years or more, call it good enough and just expect that he be an ambassador for the Army via a commission in the reserves.
I think that West Point should more aggressively attack the I95 corridor between DC and Boston more. Another outside the box idea, recruit internationally, and outside the sport. Each West Point class has 15-20 international exchange cadets who return to their home country and serve there after graduation. Perhaps identifying one to two superb student athletes abroad and then approaching them and their home government could work. Likely to face some blow back from the Army, but worth a shot.
Scheduling: As you pointed out in a previous pod, get wins where you can and the schedule is returning to that. A few guiding principles that could get the right eyeballs on the program and get wins. There's only two permanent games on the schedule, lots of room.
-1-2 games against local (within the DC to Boston mega city belt) FCS programs that should be wins and match the school's academic prestige. Army Yale was a big rivalry back in the day, they're only about an hour apart, would be good as a permanent. Perhaps home and homes with Georgetown too, to get us in front of recruits who may already have government ties in the DC area.
-4-6 games against mid majors (MAC, CUSA) east of the Rockies. Schedule these teams two to three years after their height with a hot coach. Schedule Western Michigan for 2018-2019 now, so you'll play them post PJ Fleck departure. Could be wrong, but mid majors rarely nail two hires in a row. Seems like the best way to decide between your Akrons, Tulanes, and Ball States.
-2-3 games against weaker P5 schools, get the payday and maybe the win. Haven't beat Wake yet, but the scheduling is spot on. Preferably one of these should be a PAC12 school to get eyes on the school out west. Continue to play Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State to get after the I95 corridor.
-Take 1 P5 beating (playing Oklahoma in 2018) for eyeballs and money. Another home and home with Stanford would be good. A loss for sure, but a recruiting trip out to the bay area isn't a bad idea.
-Timing: Take at least 2-3 Thursday or Friday games a year to get TV eyeballs when nothing else is on. Also, morale for the student body would rise as the weekend would start early. Cadets can't go out, drink, have fun until the end of home games, Friday night games are the best. Student body morale might not seem like a big deal, but every cadet has to go to every home game as their place of duty. Creating good future memories for the soon to be donor classes isn't a bad idea. Starting the weekend Friday night after stomping Yale is preferable to Saturday evening at 7 pm after a loss to directional Michigan.
Defensive philosophy: Largely agree that the option is the preferred offense for Army. Controls clock, smaller linemen, etc. They have to do something radical on defense though to mitigate against lack of flat out speed in the secondary and defensive line size. Perhaps running a 3-4 that mostly morphs into a 5-2 against the run? Do everything possible to recruit a couple of legitimate cover corners to prevent getting burnt deep by receivers. May be a bridge too far in recruiting, but I think that's the direction.
Finally, what does Army have to lose in running the never punt, always go on 4th down, onside kick philosophy? The Army spent the last 15 years studying insurgencies and asymmetric threats in the real world. The 'never punt/onside always' philosophy is about as asymmetric as it gets. Combined with the option, might unbalance enough teams to get more wins.
David on Wyoming (or anybody)
This is my homework assignment in regards to your latest podcast of how to turnaround Wyoming Football. I want to thank you for the opportunity to write all this down; that which has been swirling around in my mind for years. We are kindred spirits to our passion to "All" of FBS football. Thanks for the articles and podcasts, keep them coming!
To start I have spent over 15 years in education, with 11 years as a high school and college assistant football coach. I am a lifelong Michigan fan, I love Big Ten football, and its style and grace will be brought with me to Wyoming.
This approach to Victory will work in many different environments, but for the sake of the homework assignment, "Wyoming" works perfectly for my plan. I personally feel that the Craig Bohl hire will work out if he is given atleast 4-5 years to see his plan develop. But for the sake of the assignment, the job is open, and this document is my advice to the administration of what to look for.
For this system to work best, it needs to survive past a single coaches tenure. The goal will be to ride the HC we find for as long as we can get him, and hire from within after that. Example of Bo Schembechler, then Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr in succession keeping the same basic footprint in place over 30 years. This is the goal on a smaller level.
What we are looking for is the best possible recruiter we can find that fits the profile. We are looking for a coach in the last 3rd of his career, with the goal to make this his destination job. Family man, with kids and most definitely not the type of coach that sleeps in his office or expects the same of his staff. He must have a long history of being a HC, NFL experience is a major plus.
Mostly we are looking for a wizard that works miracles as a mindset. This coach must have a PT Barnum style, magnetic personality whose will-power transforms his environment. He must have a strong ego, and must be in love with the camera, all cameras. This coach must be the CEO of his team. He is not allowed to coach a position, or act as coordinator; this as a rule. We are looking for a man that loves developing young men into leaders and great human beings. He must be an optimist above all things.
The type of football we will play will be a multiple Pro style, West Coast, Power Run team on offense modelled after Michigan and Stanford. On defense we will run a multiple 4-3, with an emphasis on bringing pressure. Defensively we must display the ability to play both man and zone, we must be able to apply pressure with the blitz. Our style will be known for its aggressive nature. In both we will hire the best possible coordinators on the market that fit our rock steady profile. We never deviate from the profile. On both sides of the ball we will be bullies and will dictate terms with our style of play.
On offense we must be able to both run or pass with success. In some games the run will be favored in others we can show off 350 yd passing performances. This flexibility will help in establishing our brand, then we sell the brand, then we recruit to the brand and build a dynasty.
When filling out our staff NFL playing experience is a major plus, taking on young coaches we can train and keep loyal to us is always our goal. We look for loyalty guys as a rule, and do all we can do to keep a family atmosphere where all minds and viewpoints are favored to help us evolve into an efficient machine. When people are valued, they give beyond their passion in return.
Recruiting is the biggest part of the machine. This has to be the best quality of the HC, and the best quality on most of the hired asst. coaches on staff. Then teaching must be the second best trait. We must hire the best High School Head or Asst. coach we can find in our targeted recruiting areas. These will always include: Dallas, LA, Phoenix, our local footprint, and with an emphasis Ohio. But, we will recruit on a national level regardless of financial constraints. We will sell Wyoming as a Paradise away from home, where you will earn a degree, compete for Mountain West titles and become a leader. We will sell Wyoming as the best place outside the Military Academies to learn leadership training.
When going about recruiting the goal will be to keep ¾ of the recruiting class high school seniors, with the final ¼ filled from transfers, walk-ons, and JC players. The goal is to only take a JC kid if he will compete to start immediately. These students must enroll in Jan. to get the use of having them for spring ball. The goal is to follow the blueprint best utilized at Michigan State in regards to our recruiting philosophy. Redshirt them all if possible so they can be used as 5th year seniors down the road. Develop talent in our pro style simplified schemes.
The most important thing that happens next is the building of a winning mindset. This is only achieved through exhaustingly hard work, toil. This is where our leadership training is best utilized and graded. How do the players respond to pressure and stress? There will be Captains, a Leadership Council, and then Jr. Leaders that play the role of squad leaders. They will always be graded for their ability to hold it together, we are always watching.
Our entire year long practice plan will include leadership training, we will strive to always be efficient, innovative, and with scope. We will couple with the U.S. Army Rangers for offseason advanced leadership training. This will become a staple of our blueprint and we will return every year to Fort Benning GA. The similarity used was Brady Hoke with the Navy Seals in San Diego a few years ago.
Through our training we will also have fun as often as possible. The HC must be hard when building them into winners but also very much fatherly and a mentor to them individually if needed. Music will always be a part of practice and pregame. The leadership council will choose the play list and different days will have different moods.
The overall goal is to create elite athletes that bond and fight together like Spartan Warriors of antiquity. This us-against-the-world mentality is the chip-on-our-shoulder that we fuel ourselves on. Building esprit de corps is our most important asset. Teambuilding is the name of our game. The players will have the best 4 or 5 years of their life in our system, they will love the University, and become season ticket holders down the road following their team with passion.
This blueprint although very simplified here, is what is needed to change the game, and bring back respectability to Wyoming Football.
Daniel on Moneyball
I have a few ideas, but would probably just be repeating others. What I think I can add, though, is a term--this is basically College Football Moneyball.
The Michael Lewis book, Moneyball, described the Oakland A's teams that succeeded despite major structure disadvantages. You guys probably know all of this already, but basically the strategy employed by the A's front office was moneyball, or looking for market inefficiencies in some way. At first, when the book was written, it was in how the market underpriced players with high on-base-percentages. The A's acquired these players who were better than the other teams realized. Since then, the A's have used other kinds of moneyball approaches to target assets and strategies that richer teams are undervaluing.
Ya'll kind of touched on this by answering one readers email who asked about different schemes that could come into vogue in certain conferences (like certain kinds of defenses/offenses in the Big 12).
It's certainly not the same as baseball's version of moneyball, as the match between a player and an offensive/defensive scheme is a non-issue in baseball. But, I think the term "moneyball" is an apt description of the kinds of non-traditional strategies that these struggling schools should be considering. How to zig effectively when you can't zag like everyone else.
Stephen on Fresno State
For Fresno State, the Key to Success is to have the Carr Family breed as much as possible.
Jay on Wyoming
How to fix Wyoming:
I did this on NCAA Football ’13 and it took about 5 years.
Just kidding, this will be very difficult.
Strategy - Call me crazy, but I don’t think that Wyoming has ever been successful being more physical and ramming the ball down the throats of their opponents. From a comparison standpoint, other than Boise State and possibly Nevada (at various times), has there ever been a MWC team that really could find and develop the talent to really physically wear down their opponents? Boise did do it, but Boise is a different place than Laramie, Wyoming. Even when they did do it, they also possessed QB’s that were more than just efficient game managers, but guys that were very accurate and could strike quickly in the passing game to get a lead, before wearing out the clock in the second half with the run game (think of Boise St vs. Georgia in 2011). For my turnaround project, Wyoming will have to focus on, and dominate, what I believe to be the largest market inefficiency in football of the last 20 years – the undersized quarterback with high accuracy numbers – playing in a fling it around HS offense. In order to support this, I will attempt to sketch out a strategy for Wyoming that builds around this feature – a strategy that includes recruiting – but which also understands that football is a team sport within an institution that is (for better or worse) situated within a state that bears their name.
Offense – I would go with the Air Raid along with the fastest tempo that can be created.
First and foremost, you have to find the QB. While Craig Bohl has actually had success finding a QB before at NDSU (not only is that guy good, but he actually has the size to be a prototype NFL QB), in this strategy, I don’t believe that you can count on finding guys that are that good, and that can run well enough to build portions of your offense around that strength. To get the right QB (undersized, great accuracy) for WYO, you have to install a throwing offense. The beauty of this approach is that this type of quarterback probably exists in every geography, and most of the players needed to run this type of offense can be found in abundance within the territories that you can recruit well. Coaches for this can be found all over the place, but I would prefer disciples of the Mumme tree. These guys are able to coax the most out of the slot receiver position, they know how to stretch a defense vertically without elite speed (using the TE up the seams), and they have a great history of getting results from the types of QB’s that don’t have prototypical NFL size/arm.
I know that Wyoming weather can be difficult, but with this type of fast break offense in the thin air and elevation, can really create an advantage, especially when sea level opponents are in your conference and in your building every year. Wyoming may not be able to get the best and most athletic offensive linemen, but they can get the best conditioned. They can also focus on recruiting of linemen that are slightly undersized, but agile, in order to fit the system.
Going to this offensive approach not only fits the strength of the undeserved portion of the QB market and plays to your elevation strengths, it actually fits well with your history of being a "Wild WAC" member in the days where Wyoming could win 10 games and dominate some regional opponents. I doubt that in the current world that Wyoming is really going to have success outmuscling Boise or even CSU. At the same time, there really isn’t a pure air raid team remaining in the MWC (Fresno appeared to have moved to a more running focused approach, I will admit that I don’t know what Hawaii does recently).
Defense – Blitz City
Wyoming is probably never going to be able to lure elite athletes that can rush the passer or lock down receivers one on one in coverage. In order to generate a pass rush, you are going to have to blitz. In order to cover receivers, you are going to have to generate heat on the quarterback. The benefit of the area that you can recruit from Wyoming, is that you will be able to recruit multiple athletes that have a level of fungibility, if installed into the correct system. Winning at Wyoming depends on the offense. The defense will give up points. This can be a benefit though, because the likelihood of winning with the Wyoming offense will increase with the amount of plays that are run during the game. With this in mind, the defense has to be high risk. Lots of blitzing and man coverage are on order. Being extremely aggressive can be a benefit in recruiting as well.
Culture
This is probably the most difficult of all of the ideas that are listed here. Culture is something that Wyoming had while they were in the WAC. It might have been weird, and kind of kooky, but they definitely had one. They were high powered, run and shoot, with enough run to keep a defense honest. The passing game wasn’t over the top, but they always had a few shifty receivers that were difficult to stop. While this sounds like I am developing strategy, culture can flow into strategy very well. In order for Wyoming to succeed, culture has to be more than just a football thing… by this I simply mean to say – Wyoming is a school in tough state, with tough mountains (not as tall as anywhere else, but certainly difficult) and tough cowboys and open spaces. This element of toughness really needs be brought out in lots of ways. From a school perspective: schedule lots of student athletic challenges – hiking, climbing, iron man, marathon, 5K, and tough mudder. There are lots of kids in the Denver area that are coming across the border to Wyoming for college, try to capitalize on THIS type of student. This focus on toughness can be transferred on to the football field. Wyoming isn’t going to recruit the best athletes – there is no reason that you can’t open your tryouts to include a spot on special teams as a gunner (or something similar) for the "toughest competition" winner…. Anything that you can do to make people pay attention to the hardiness of your students (and student athletes) and the elevation – related to the subsequent fitness of your athletes against their opponents, is a good thing. This is a brand, and it will only work when the legitimate perception is…. "yeah, Colorado State has a great campus with some cool urban areas and yoga and lots of millennial environmental kitsch…. But F that, I’m going to WYO because I want to be challenged". Wyoming isn’t for everyone (a lot of people just won’t like it, because it kind of sucks), so use that to your advantage and make a culture out of that hardness. Obviously, there are a lot of ways to market this to job providers, parents of students, and on down the line but I don’t want to get into all of that here.
As for football culture – the uniforms could be cooler. The colors could be brought into harmony with one another better than they currently are (mix with black or white and minimize the use of the brown and yellow). Don’t throw away what you have, but sticking with it probably isn’t going to help going forward. Whatever you can do with your stadium to minimize the wind is helpful. Don’t put on a roof or anything, but you know where the wind is coming from. We are going to be throwing the ball, so help with that. Football offices and all athletic buildings, should as much as possible, try to incorporate the mountains.
Scheduling
Outside of MWC conference play, I really see three elements that can be incorporated, that have been successful:
1) Finding a regional rival to play meaningful games with… Unfortunately, Wyoming doesn’t really have any. I think that Colorado, Kansas, or K State is a good rival in terms of size, but they don’t gain you anything in recruiting. They do offer the benefit that I think they could be defeated with some level of regularity. Wins of Power 5 schools are nice. Oklahoma State, Washington State, and Oregon State sort of fit into that same profile, but at least they offer something in the way of recruiting. I wouldn’t keep SMU or Texas Tech out of the discussions for this same reason (obviously SMU isn’t Power 5, but whatever).
2) $$$ - Scheduling teams that will beat the daylights out of you on their home fields pays the bills. You probably have to do it sometimes. If you do have to do this, go south or west. You gain nothing from playing Ole Miss except the paycheck.
3) Finding directional schools so that you can put W’s on your resume and make bowl games. That is currently failing you (lost to Eastern Mich last year) but probably represents a decent way of getting important bowl games and practice going forward.
Based on our culture and strategies, getting other teams into Laramie is a high priority. With that in mind, 1 and 3 probably are the ticket, even if it means getting lean with the $.
Recruiting – recruiting totals are based on the idea that a given team as maybe 40 guys that are very regular contributors (22 starters, specialists, and regularly used backups)
1. NDSU recruiting area – Craig Bohl won a lot of games at NDSU – is it hard to imagine that in the past 5 years that NDSU could have contended in the MWC, or at least been above .500? Wyoming lives in the same geography as NDSU. While Fargo is a city with some great urbanism at work, it isn’t entirely different. In fact, there are several arguments in favor of Wyoming over Fargo (mainly skiing, I guess). With that in mind, focusing on the same ground that he used to cover to great effect should be able to yield similar results. Every player that Nebraska targets as a "preferred walk-on" should get an offer from WYO. Focusing on this area (which is slightly underserved) should be able to yield 20 guys in a given year that contribute regularly. If Nebraska can have 4-5 walk-ons that qualify for scholarships, you should be able to find 2-3 of those guys at that level and get them to come to your school. These guys may never be the stars of your team, but if you are doing it right, you should always have two starting linebackers, a DT, an OG, a TE, and a bunch of slot receivers that hail from this territory and give max effort. It worked at NDSU – the same level of guys can help you win at a higher level as well.
2. Denver – Laramie is not that far from Denver. Right now, Denver has 2-3 guys from the big schools that get picked up by major programs on an annual basis. Outside of those guys, There are 5-15 more that are fought over by CU, Nebraska, Arizona schools, and maybe Utah or Southern California Schools. Everyone else is a target. If you are doing the things above correctly, there is no reason that you shouldn’t be able to be in the mix and get some of the guys that dream of CU Buffs, but end up being recruited hard by CSU, UNLC, Utah St.
3. Cheyenne regular flights – I looked, and there aren’t that many good flights out of Cheyenne on a regular basis. There is an area though, in the greater western states that you probably have a chance of pulling a kid out of if you do it right. Eastern Oregon/Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, NM, and West Texas…. You can recruit these areas, but you have to do so in a very pointed way, and really, only for the right kind of QB – undersized, smart, accurate. If anyone big is on them, you shouldn’t be. Think about Major Applewhite, Todd Reesing, Joe Ganz, Zac Taylor, Cody Hawkins (ok, maybe not Cody Hawkins). These are the models that you should be looking for. Get a lot of them in the fold, pass a lot, run a lot, find the guy for you.
4. JUCO
Bill Snyder is going to retire someday. When that happens, Wyoming should be just as poised to be the big player in the Midwest JUCO ranks as K-State was. This is where you are going to get your stud WR’s and DB’s, as well as the pass rushers that you need to break games open. You should be in the Kansas JUCO’s all of the time, and hit the California ones as hard as you can. If you can convert here, you have the guys that can take you from 5-7 wins or from 9-11.
I don’t know if this is what you were looking for. Say what you want about the tenets of what I put together here, at least it’s an ethos.
Cameron on everybody
Here’s my take on how to resurrect some specific bad programs, the "hard jobs remain hard" programs that you guys always talk about that quite honestly are pretty interesting to discuss. Just to be upfront about it, I’m a Stanford and San Diego State fan and I grew up in the early-mid 2000’s when both teams were pretty bad, but since around 2008 both schools have gone from good to great and they both had two of their best seasons ever in 2015. So I’d like to think I’m slightly familiar with observing how programs rebuild. It wasn’t too long ago that both the Aztecs and the Cardinal were perennial cellar dwellers, albeit not in the same league as an Eastern Michigan.
Louisiana-Monroe:
The problem with a school like ULM is that they have this losing culture while also sitting right next to several more successful rival schools that play in the same tier of football (ULL, Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech). While these teams make it difficult to recruit for your level they also demonstrate that the proper coach still will be able to field a winning team here. Number one: a coach at ULM has to recruit. I think Matt Viator is a good way to go because quite honestly ULM is in the same recruiting boat as McNeese State. Hopefully he can use his knowledge of the area to gain an edge on the local competition. A slight advantage can turn into several wins in the Sun Belt pretty easily as almost every team save the top 3-4 in conference are about 90th or worse nationally. The other key is to slightly adjust the non-con scheduling. Instead of playing three Power 5 road games as an SEC/ACC/Big 12 sacrificial lamb maybe play just two. Schedule a closer G5 opponent like Louisiana Tech and, should you win, it demonstrates to a potential recruit that Monroe is a better alternative than Ruston or Lafayette or Jonesboro which currently isn’t the case. Plus in the Sun Belt it will be particularly helpful when bowl season comes around to not have 3 automatic losses before conference play even begins. A program like ULM won’t be easy to build into a winner, but inherent geographic advantages make it more likely than a bad MAC or Mountain West team.
Eastern Michigan:
This might honestly be one of the hardest of the hard jobs. EMU is in the same boat with ULM in the sense that they’re near more successful schools who just do a better job than them. The relative current success of CMU and WMU makes recruiting tough, and in a harder area to recruit with it makes it even tougher. Unlike ULM—which could more likely build a program with a succession of head coaches who, like Arkansas State had, can just recruit well and keep the ball rolling—EMU would probably need a dedicated man who will sink many valuable years of his life into resurrecting the program. How you find that guy is a mystery to me, but if it’s painfully obvious that a young guy with a lot of coaching potential who is ideally a Midwest native is actually calling the shots as an OC or DC somewhere, maybe pull the trigger on him. EMU doesn’t trap themselves with as many bad road games as a ULM, so they probably don’t need to change their scheduling philosophy, just the entire culture of the program as a loser school with no hope at success.
Rice (and Tulane):
Now Rice is interesting, because you can take a lot of what I said about both ULM and EMU and have it be applicable, but their status as a heavy hitter academic private school makes things more complicated. Still, there’s absolutely nothing standing in the way of being competitive in CUSA West for the right head coach. Texas is a good recruiting bed but Rice’s academic standards will likely force them to recruit nationally. Obviously as a Stanford fan I see parallels but clearly there aren’t that many similarities with regard to each school’s potential football success. Tulane’s hire of Willie Fritz is interesting because outside of the service academies I can really see a high standards academic school using option attacks with smaller, less recruited players as a way to level the playing field. Rice might want to try something like that. More like EMU, because the recruiting is rather tenuous, Rice needs a steady hand who is willing to very patiently wait out the bad years. I think Bailiff is doing a decent job, but if somehow a slightly better coach were to come along who has Bailiff’s tenacity to stick around with a historically loser program Rice might want to upgrade. Rice does have one advantage over other Texas schools in CUSA and the Sun Belt: their past as a member of the SWC. For some reason former SWC members not named Texas A&M still like to play each other, and A&M does pick on the little guys kinda often. Only until recently did Texas frequently still play games against Rice in NRG Stadium, perhaps bring those back, they have one down the road but they should try more. True home and homes would be difficult to schedule, but 2 for 1’s with a game in NRG against Texas, A&M, Baylor, Tech, or TCU would be wonderful for Rice’s profile. I’d say Tulane should play LSU at this juncture, but that won’t happen. Again, only one or two a season, no need to take oneself out of bowl contention in October, but it’s an advantage that a Texas State and UTSA don’t have, yet, they’re pushing to play more P5 Texas schools and Rice should try to prevent that from happening. Use NRG!
Wyoming:
If Craig Bohl can’t make it work then it’s really difficult to say who will. What’s interesting about last PAPN episode is that it reminded me just how special Wyoming used to be in terms of the coaches produced there. With practically zero local recruiting, the Cowboys have to comb the dregs of other recruiting beds for players. As with Joe Tiller, perhaps a new offensive or defensive approach would be the best way to get things started until Wyoming can compete pound for pound with Utah State and Colorado State for recruits, which can’t honestly be that hard if the Cowboys string together a couple winning seasons. After all, Utah State was in the very same boat until Gary Andersen showed up.
Hawaii:
Now this is a toughie. Obviously Hawaii has had past success much more recently than these other schools, so a great coach can get the Rainbow Warriors back to some semblance to competitiveness rather quickly, especially in the Mountain West’s West Division which is currently inhabited by SDSU and 5 corpses. The real problem, as you guys went over in great detail in the last episode, is who do you play for your 4 or 5 noncon games? They had a decent balance going until they joined the Mountain West. They kept playing a PAC-12 school or two every season alongside the odd other Power 5 team, usually on the road, but games against G5 opposition west of the Rockies dried up completely which kills Hawaii for the last 2-3 non-conference games. Idaho and New Mexico State, though they might not be long for this world, are the ONLY options outside of the PAC-12 and Mountain West who are west of Texas. This is their situation, there’s not much to do about it, they have to win despite it and nothing will change that as far as I can tell. A good coach can take them to a bowl, bad September scheduling be damned.
As an aside, Hawaii plays in the Big West for their other sports, so their track and field team doesn’t need to go to Air Force every year. It’s a pretty smart move by them to be honest due to travel costs, even though it leave the Mountain West awkwardly with 11 full members.
Another aside: Hawaii will never play in the PAC-12.
Idaho/New Mexico State/Massachusetts:
Those brave souls, venturing into independence at a time like this, and with those win-loss records?!
Idaho and UMass actually have long histories of success at the FCS level, and the decision to commit to winning is right there, all they need to do is to drop down. It’s both the easiest and hardest thing to do for those programs right now. It will perpetually be a black mark against their teams, and for Idaho particularly it must be galling with Boise State doing SO MUCH BETTER than the Vandals despite still being seen as the upstart JUCO that accidentally struck it rich. UMass had a history much like UConn in the FCS, but in the FBS the Huskies made it to the Fiesta Bowl while the Minutemen can’t break 4-8. It would be embarrassing, but probably the best move for both programs if they want to win. New Mexico State has, in its history, almost always been bad. I mean, really, few teams have been this consistently bad ever at the FBS level. They’re the Kansas State of the G5 but with no Bill Snyder. They don’t even have a home in the FCS should they drop down, but they could probably scrounge around the Southland and Big Sky for some bid.
However, if these teams are committed to playing FBS football for whatever reason, probably vanity or pride and nothing else at this point, there might be a way to do it. The biggest issue is creating a schedule every season. There are five football independent teams not named Notre Dame once Idaho and NMSU take the leap. BYU likely won’t schedule home and home’s with any of them, but they’ve already demonstrated that they’d be willing to play at least one of them in Provo a year. If the four non BYU/Notre Dame independents can all play each other and possibly a game in Provo every once in a while, that takes care of about a third of their schedule, and all of those games are winnable for a good coach in the foreseeable future. UMass somehow gets BC and UConn to play them on either a home and home of 2 for 1 basis, so if they keep doing that they can knock out half their schedule very easily. The rest can be a mix of pay for play games and MAC/CUSA/American home and homes. New Mexico State has New Mexico and UTEP who they always play in noncon, plus the Aggies and Idaho are completely inside the Mountain West footprint. It wouldn’t be hard to get MW or CUSA teams to agree on home and homes (SDSU did it with both for the year they were outside the WAC but not in the Sun Belt yet). I know Boise will never play Idaho home and home again, but other teams can be found to fill the gaps. For instance, Hawaii’s best options would be in Moscow and Las Cruces for G5 home and homes.
This is probably the bare minimum of bad independent teams required to play FBS football for them to sustain themselves by playing each other. This independent culture has worked before and lasted well into the 90’s before most joined the Sun Belt or CUSA. All they need is a number of home and homes to get 4-5 home games, ideally more, in order to create some kind of stability for a coach to build something out of nothing. I’m operating under the assumption that these three programs really don’t care about making money. UMass clearly doesn’t and Idaho and NMSU probably don’t either if they want to stick it out. As far as I can tell it’s the end of the line for them unless expansion somehow changes things.
Until now I haven’t even talked about coaching at these schools. With terrible recruiting and no consistent scheduling and no conference revenue…all I can say is you have to get yourself a good coach somehow. There’s no formula for this, most programs like this struggle almost continually and there’s no way around that.
Army:
Finally, the hardest of hard jobs. The first step is to solve the crisis in the Middle East. That will free up some recruits who might otherwise might not commit. Either that or get America into a shooting war with a nation important enough to re-institute the draft. Then Army will get on the right track immediately.
All jokes aside, I’m inclined to say that the Cadets might just stay this way forever. That they should just say "fuck it" and play Navy and Air Force, half the CUSA, and half the Ivy League and just do whatever the hell they want because they’re Army. They might not win a bowl game, but they’ll win your heart. And honestly why not just have a bad Army football team? There’s almost no way that they’ll ever truly be great again because of the nature of the players who go there (again, unless another big war breaks out).
The only thing keeping me from committing to this line of thought is the success of Navy. IT CAN WORK! Somehow. And while American ground forces are committed to serious overseas operations it will always make it tougher for Army to "recruit" better than the Middies, some strange combination has to work.