As you may know, the key to winning in fantasy basketball is to be ahead of the curve. For those of you who picked up Larry Sanders before he remarkable block party -- and then hopefully traded him shortly thereafter -- you know exactly what I'm talking about.
In the case of rookie big man Andre Drummond, however, fantasy owners are starting to get itchy and wonder if now is the time to pounce on him, after he recorded 15 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks against the Warriors on Wednesday night.
Drummond has long been a popular speculative add, seeing as he has great size and a tremendous "upside," as they say. I think, though, there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned about picking and plugging him after his Warriors performance.
First, we have to take into account that Greg Monroe was woeful, and he really opened up the door to have Drummond step in -- for this game -- and play 30-plus minutes. Considering that Drummond had logged only 20-plus minutes once over the six games prior, we can't call this a trend.
Second, owning Drummond comes with a bit of a hassle. His free-throw shooting is horrific. He's made just 39 percent of his attempts to date, and even if he drastically improves, it's not as if he's going to turn into anything other than a Dwight Howard-like FT shooter anytime soon.
His scoring, too, isn't going to touch double figures all that much. Prior to last night, Drummond hadn't scored more than 7 points in a game since November 23 (6 games). Sure, you can say that since he logged 30 minutes he was more involved in the offense, but my point earlier was that he's not going to be getting 30 minutes of run on a regular basis.
So, where do we stand? I think in deeper leagues Drummond is definitely a nice own for his rebounding and shot-blocking abilities. If you can live with the poor FT% (h2h leagues, a plus), great. In more standard leagues I think it really depends on need. If you're desperate for rebounds and blocks, Drummond should be OK. But I imagine there are more complete players still available on the waiver wires. Maybe they don't have the same upside as Drummond, but in the immediate future they likely will have a more consistent value.
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