Detailed analysis of every NFL quarterback for Week 11, as you prepare for the stretch run of your fantasy season
Nov 17, 2010 -
1 Drew Brees (vs. SEA) - 330 passing yards, 3 TD - Fresh off of a bye week and expecting the return of Reggie Bush to the lineup in a home contest against a woefully undermanned Seahawk team. The Saints haven't looked their Super selves yet this season, but they could be poised for another deep postseason run. Getting on track against an inferior opponent would be a great first step and you can bet that Brees and HC Sean Peyton will have put their time in to get the desired results. Expect the Superdome to be rocking and the Saints to come out firing en route to their first three game win streak of the year.
2 Michael Vick (NYG) - 250 passing yards, 2 TD 40 rush yards 1 TD - Vick is destined for a bit of a letdown following his Xbox performance at Fed Ex field on Monday but that leaves plenty of room for production. Vick's new-found passing prowess (11TD, 0 Int) and pocket presence (115.1 passer rating) have combined with his silly speed make him an unrivaled dual threat in the NFL. He's producing like a solid QB and RB2 rolled into one! While the Eagles week 11 opponent, the Giants, possess a superior pass rush, weapons Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Lesean McCoy make it difficult for defenses to devote more than a single player spying Vick. Continue to ride Vick as an elite QB1 regardless of matchup, until an opposing defense provides the blueprint for shutting down Vick 2.0.
3 Philip Rivers (DEN) - 290 passing yards, 3 TD - Has any signal caller done more with less? He lost his star receiver to ego before the season began, then witnessed Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, and Legedu Naanee go down with injury. All Rivers has done in their absence is set a pace to smash Dan Marino's single season yards record by 150 yards using recyclables Patrick Crayton and Randy McMichael along the way. This week, Rivers could see the return of Floyd and Naanee, only helping in his assault against bitter division rival Denver.
4 Peyton Manning (@NE) - 280 passing yards, 3 TD - Manning and the Colts head to Foxboro on the heels of their worst passing performance of the year. While the Patriots don't have the CB's to slow down Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garçon like the Bengals, you can bet that HC Bill Bellechick will throw a few exotic looks Peyton's way. Ultimately, this contest comes down to personnel, and as banged up as the Colts are at the skill positions Manning should have no problems exploiting a Patriot secondary that has surrendered 290 yards per contest, 30th in the NFL. Look for Manning to connect early and often with senior target Reggie Wayne in Foxboro this Sunday, setting the tone.
5 Aaron Rodgers (@MIN) - 270 passing yards, 3 TD (1 Rush) - The Pack travel to take on a Viking team on the verge of total upheaval; the Vikings off-field distractions pile up as quickly as Brett Favre's on-field ails. And trust me when I say that Rodgers will relish the opportunity to defeat the guy who tried to Jay Leno his starting gig out from under him. A surging James Jones continues to make Pack fans forget about the absence of Donald Driver as he and Greg Jennings use their speed on the fast Metrodome track. The Vikings stout Williams Wall should limit an already anemic Packer running attack, meaning Rodgers will have to shoulder the offensive load. Expect 35+ passes, plenty to post solid QB1 totals.
6. Tom Brady (INDY) - 280 passing yards, 2 TD - Who could have imagined Brady's best game of the season would have come against the Steelers vaunted defense AFTER the team shipped off Randy Moss? Well, Brady confirmed that he still can post gaudy numbers when necessary, netting 300 passing yards for the first time all season. This week Brady should be called upon again as the Patriots defense will have trouble containing Peyton Manning and the Colts. The Pats run game is serviceable and could vulture a few scores but expect solid yardage totals from Brady as he reminds us that he doesn't need big time receivers to be a big time QB.
7 Jon Kitna (vs DET) - 280 passing yards, 2 TD ***UPSIDE PLAY*** - You can't understate the effect that Mike Martz had on this guy's career. Having endured a few seasons handling Martz' difficult offenses it's clear that Kitna can make even the most difficult throws. Though Kitna is susceptible to the INT, his rapport with emerging star Dez Bryant and the Cowboys talented supporting cast make him a crafty play against a weak Detroit defense. With dreams of a home Super Bowl turned nightmare, this game represents Dallas' best chance to shine on the national stage.
8 Ben Roethlisberger (vs OAK) - 275 passing yards, 2 TD - Thoughts of the Pittsburgh Steelers evoke images of a gritty squad reliant on defense and ball control to win games, but the fact is that the Roethlisberger-led Steelers have been a passing team. Ben has thrown for at least 27 pass attempts in every game since returning from suspension and injuries to the Steeler offensive line could mean more pass attempts going forward. Oakland has surrendered 16 passing scores in 9 games, indicating that outside of Nnamdi Asomugha the Raiders don't cover very well. Oakland ranks 3rd in sacks in the NFL with 27, but Big Ben's ability to escape the rush should allow him to convert on some broken plays.
9 Matt Schaub (@NYJ) - 270 passing yards, 2 TD - It's been an up and down year for Schaub as injury to Andre Johnson and the emergence of RB Arian Foster have kept the 2009 passing yards leader under wraps. This week the Texans will travel to the Meadowlands to take on a Jet defense that is extremely stingy against the run, making it logical to assume the Texans will try to win the game through the air. While the Jets are no slouches in the passing game with CB's Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, Schaub should attempt at least 30 passes, more than enough for him to rack up yardage. Despite an off 2010 campaign, Schaub remains a low end QB1 regardless of matchup.
10 Matt Ryan (vs STL) - 270 passing yards, 2 TD - Talk about consistency. Matty Ice is one of just a few NFL signal callers to attempt at least 28 passes in every game this season, throwing for over 60% completion percentage and a score in 9 of 10 contests. This week Ryan will square off against a Ram defense that has surrendered just 10 passing TD's this season. It's clear that the Falcons no longer rely on ball control to open things up for Ryan. This team is going where Ryan takes him. With Roddy White playing at an elite level Ryan makes for a solid QB1 play any given Sunday.
11 Eli Manning (@PHI) - 260 passing yards, 2 TD - Manning has been on a breakout pace, but the news isn't great coming into week 11. The Giants will be without Manning's favorite possession target, Steve Smith, for a second straight week. Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham are big play, yards after the catch type receivers, but Manning needs to have a security blanket for intermediate routes. And the constant reshuffling of the Giants offensive line took it's toll last week as myriad penalties stalled drives and took points off the scoreboard. The Eagles have been somewhat Jekyll and Hyde in coverage this season giving up 16 TD's-the same number of INT's they have as a unit. Expect the Giants to try and establish the running game in this NFC East showdown as the Giants try to keep a white hot Mike Vick off the field, limiting Manning's numbers.
12 Kyle Orton (@SD) - 260 passing yards, 2 TD - The last time Orton faced a top-5 QB defense on the road this season was in Baltimore where he threw for over 300 yards and 2 scores. The Broncos are fresh off of a shellacking of division rival Kansas City and will travel to San Diego for another division tilt. The emergence of Knowshon Moreno and the running game should open things up for Orton, who is on pace to finish the season with nearly 5,000 yards.
13 Carson Palmer (BUF) - 255 passing yards, 2 TD - Palmer has logged multiple passing scores in six straight contests and will host a Buffalo team that surrendered over 300 yards to Shaun Hill in week 10. Palmer has been very inconsistent with his yardage totals this season, looking lost in the pocket at times and flawless in others. The Bills run defense has been awful this season, making this the last chance for Cedric Benson and company to dominate a game on the ground. They should, limiting Palmer's chances to post statistics. Still, the Bengals have been disappointing all year long, so it wouldn't completely surprise us to see Palmer air it out 35 times either.
14 Mark Sanchez (vs HOU) - 250 passing yards, 2 TD - One thing to be thankful for this Thanksgiving...The Texans pass defense. Houston has been awful, allowing a league worst 313 passing yards per contest to go along with 22 TD's this season. While the Jets should also exploit the Texans sub-par run defense, the Jets coaching staff never ignore an opportunity to build their Sophomore QB's confidence by expanding the playbook a little. Sanchez is at his best when he can use his exceptional footwork to expand the pocket. Against Mario Williams and a core of defensive backs that simply don't cover expect one of the seasons best games from the Jets second year pro.
15 Vince Young (WSH) - 255 passing yards, 2 TD - Young has come under fire this week, with teammates and media members alike questioning his conditioning and dedication to the game. Young is no stranger to such scrutiny and in his own way has silenced critics in the past. The timing couldn't be any better for Young, who will see a historically bad Redskin secondary making headlines for allowing 6 TD's to Mike Vick on Monday. The Redskins are giving up passing yards at an alarming rate and while the Titans are a run first team we expect Young to hit a few deep passes to recently acquired WR Randy Moss. He's a risky play for sure, but comes with good upside in this matchup
16 Shaun Hill (@DAL) - 250 passing yards, 2 TD - Hill was respectable in week 10, though the only highlight you will see is of him turning a cameraman into his intended target on an attempted game tying 2-point conversion. In fairness though, the slick Buffalo conditions may have been a factor that won't be present in the friendly confines of Jerry Jones' indoor colossus. Hill rightly seems to recognize that the way score points is to direct his passes towards Calvin Johnson whom Hill targeted 14 times last week. The Cowboys secondary has been awful against opposing receivers and with Dallas showing signs of life, the Lions will have to air it out to keep pace.
17 David Garrard (CLE) - 250 passing yards, 2 TD - Garrard has always been a capable fantasy QB, but his 5 TD's in week 8 and 342 yards in week 10 have many thinking he might be on the move to QB1 territory. This week Garrard will face a Cleveland defense surrendering 18 fantasy points per game to opposing QB's. While Garrard isn't a yardage monster, the presence of emerging TE's Marcedes Lewis gives Garrard a big red zone target. With the Browns boasting a solid run defense look for Garrard to lead the Jags attack on Sunday.
18 Josh Freeman (@SF) - 220 passing yards, 1 TD, 25 rushing yards, 1 TD - Freeman is having an outstanding sophomore campaign and boasts an impressive 12:5 TD to INT ratio. He's also doing damage with his legs, quietly running to a 6.5 yard per carry average. Freeman has shown a presence that belies his youth in leading the Bucs to an improbable 6-3 record. He's scored a TD in every game but one this season and should continue to have success against a middling 49er secondary. Freeman makes for a low risk QB2 play this week.
19 Joe Flacco (CAR) - 240 passing yards, 2 TD - Flacco has rewarded owners that stuck with him through his rough start to the season and has notched multi-TD outings in each of his last four games. Carolina boasts a normally elite pass defense but has surrendered 2 passing scores in each of their last two contests. Flacco appears to be in rhythm with Anquan Boldin and the ageless Derrick Mason. The extra three days of preparation should also serve the Ravens well against a weaker opponent. Flacco won't approach huge totals, but should provide adequate QB2 stats.
20 Jay Cutler (MIA) - 250 yards, 1 TD - His production has been tough to predict this season, as the slinger has posted two each of zero, one, two, and three TD performances through 8 games. Cutler hasn't gone for over 300 yards since week 1 and a trip to Miami represents his 7th game on natural grass, where he has just 7 TD's to 8 INT's. With the Bears running attack lacking punch of late Cutler will have to deliver for Chicago to win. The Dolphins modified 3-4 defense generates a lot of pressure, which is problematic for a shaky Bears O-line. But it's worth noting that Cutler has had some success against 3-4 sets. True to form, there is lots to like and lots to be afraid of with this weeks matchup. With his inconsistencies he's hard to endorse as anything more than a high risk / high reward QB.
21 Brett Favre (GBP) - 250 passing yards, 1 TD - Favre now has 7 games in which he's thrown for 1 TD or less. Aside from his week 9 comeback outburst he hasn't been very productive, logging less than 230 yards five times. There's also a good chance that Favre, who appears to be half a hit away from the emergency room, doesn't make it out of this game intact against his old team. He's a risky QB play at this point and since prudent Favre owners are carrying another QB anyway, such options are worth exploring.
22 Donovan McNabb (@Ten) - 240 passing yards, 1 TD - Change isn't looking so good now in Washington as McNabb needed to be blown out at home in order to log his first multi-TD game of the season. As old as McNabb has looked, his receiving corp featuring Santanna Moss and Joey Galloway has looked worse. With Chris Cooley dealing with another injury this isn't the time for the shell-shocked Redskins to take on a physical, and chippy, Tennessee defense. McNabb usually bounces back after bad performances, but he looked old and slow this past week. Then again, I guess Mike Vick will do that to anyone.
23 Matt Cassel (ARI) - 240 passing yards, 1TD - Cassel's inflated week 10 totals came as the team abandoned the run after being blown out in the first half. By the second quarter the Chiefs were running the two-minute drill, as Cassel aired it out to Dwayne Bowe (21 targets). It was nice to see that Cassel has the ability to post such stats, but expect HC Todd Haley to get his top rated rush offense back on track against the Cardinals woeful defense. Optimists will point to his 12 TD's over the last five games, but just look at Cassel's stats the last time the Cheifs hosted a poor run defense. In week 8 against Buffalo the Chiefs ran for over 200 yards as Cassel threw for just 150 and 1 TD. Cassel is a fine QB2 the rest of the way but don't expect too much in a game that should be won by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
24 Sam Bradford (ATL) - 230 passing yards, 1 TD - Bradford has been outstanding as a rookie QB, posting a passing score in all but one game this season. He's also kept the interceptions to a minimum and has kept his team in a lot of games. This week he'll face his stiffest test against a rested Falcon team that is one of the best in the league. Bradford does appear to have settled on Brandon Gibson as his #1 receiving target, so there is some upside here. But as a rookie facing a Super Bowl contender he's tough to recommend in fantasy circles.
25 Matt Hasselbeck (@NO) - 200 passing yards, 1 TD - Matt will take these awful road birds to the Big Easy to face the Saints top rated QB defense as they come off their bye. Hasselbeck has thrown for just over 550 yards in three road losses this year and has just 1 TD to 5 picks away from Qwest field. This will be a long day for the Hawks entire team
26 Troy Smith (TB) - 190 passing yards, 1 TD 25 rush yards - Smith has looked sharp in his two starts, and appears to be gelling nicely with Michael Crabtree. Still, this is a run first team that will likely lean heavily on Frank Gore to get them the win. His 356 yards against the Rams show that he has tools to play on the NFL level but it's always wise to let a player string together a few performances before you consider plugging him into your lineup. Smith is currently worth a pickup in deep leagues.
27 Colt McCoy (JAX) - 180 passing yards, 1 TD - McCoy won't have a better matchup all season against the Jaguars 31st rated secondary. But this is a run first team that tries to eliminate the big mistake for their rookie QB with a steady dose of Peyton Hillis. Still, with the rapport that McCoy is building with his TE's a score isn't out of the question. He's only worth starting if you have no other options though.
28 Jason Campbell (@PIT) - 230 passing yards - Good luck to the guy who has to travel to Pittsburgh a week after Tom Brady make their defense look inept. Campbell should get back Louis Murphy, but his grasp on the starting job is tenuous.
29 Ryan Fitzpatrick (@CIN) - 220 passing yards - You don't need to be a Harvard Grad to know that Bengal CB's Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall shut down opposing receivers. Outside of Steve Johnson and Lee Evans the Bills lack receivers. Fitzpatrick enjoyed a nice run and has thrown for a score in every game he's started, but he's not worth much more than a desperation play this week.
30 Tyler Thigpen (CHI) - 200 passing yards - The former Coastal Carolina product and third stringer might actually give the Dolphins the best chance to win. He's got more NFL chops than Chad Henne and a better skill set than Chad Pennington. But you can't endorse starting him against a Bears defense that has surrendered less than a TD per game to opposing QB's.
31 Derek Anderson / Max Hall (@KC) - 180 passing yards - While Anderson will get the start you have to wonder how many costly interceptions he will be allowed to throw before HC Ken Wisenhunt decides to go back to Hall as his QB. Facing an upstart Chiefs secondary won't help to strengthen Anderson's hold on the starting job. You're better off staying away from anyone on the Cardinals not named Larry Fitzgerald for the remainder of the year.
32 Tony Pike (@TB) - 150 passing yards - Hmmmm, a rookie 6th round QB making his NFL debut for one of the worst offenses in the NFL? If Pike lands on your roster, you're obviously trying to secure you're league's 2011 #1 draft pick. For shame!
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