Every week, fantasy football services attempt to project out how many points a given player will score that week. Sometimes they are fairly spot on. Often though, they can be comically off. These are those stories. Here is a look at some of the biggest over- and under-achievers for Week 1 of the 2013 NFL season.
Terrelle Pryor, QB
Stat Line: 217 passing yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 112 rushing yards
Projected FF points: 14.63
Actual FF points: 21.88
Week 1 saw more young quarterbacks emerge, and Terrelle Pryor was one of the most surprising. Most analysts were pessimistic about the Raiders and their young QB, but he surprised even some Raiders fans with a dynamic performance. Pryor was the team's leading rusher, and also showed some solid work in the passing game, finishing with 217 passing yards.
Sit or Start, Week 2: Pryor is still too fresh to consider an every week start, but he has to be on the fantasy radar. He faces Jacksonville Week 2 in front of the Black Hole, and that could be a great matchup. In two quarterback leagues, he becomes an interesting start. In single quarterback leagues, he is worth stashing on your bench to see how consistent he will be.
Julian Edelman, WR
Stat Line: 79 receiving yards, two touchdowns
Projected FF points: 5.04
Actual FF points: 19.90
Sit or Start, Week 2: The Patriots head home to face the New York Jets in Week 2. The Jets stunned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, but I have a hunch they will not find such luck at Gillette Stadium. Most of the Patriots roster will be a solid fantasy start. Edelman is owned in only 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and will be a favorite on the waiver wire.
Joique Bell, RB
Stat Line: 25 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 67 receiving yards
Projected FF points: 3.99
Actual FF points: 21.20
The Lions invested in Reggie Bush this offseason, and he got his Lions career off to a strong start on Sunday, but backup Joique Bell planted his flag in the Lions offense. Bell had only 11 touches to Bush's 25, but Bell made them count. Bell was a popular handcuff in the offseason, but his performance might work him into a decent flex play.
Sit or Start, Week 2: The Lions head to Arizona to face an inconsistent Cardinals defense. The Lions could be looking at Bell as a goal line option, but that is always a dicey fantasy proposition. The smart move would be to wait another week and see what kind of work he gets. If he continues to get double digit touches, he becomes an intriguing flex play in 12+ team leagues. He is owned in 32 percent of leagues, but that number should climb when waivers clears this week.
Stat Line: 19 rushing yards, two fumbles lost
Projected FF points: 13.78
Actual FF points: -2.10
Well, that was certainly disappointing. David Wilson had arguably the worst fantasy performance of most any starter in Week 1, fumbling twice and finding himself benched late. Wilson was benched last year after a fumble in the season-opener, and this year's season opener was even worse. Wilson had the two fumbles, but also struggled in pass protection. Da'Rel Scott replaced him late.
Sit or Start, Week 2: The Giants are have reportedly already brought in Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee for workouts. This is not a good sign as the Giants figure out their running back situation. You cannot abandon Wilson quite yet, but none of this is remotely inspiring. If you don't have better options, stick with Wilson in your lineup for one more week, barring any word of significant benching.
Stat Line: 0 catches
Projected FF points: 7.17
Actual FF points: 0
The Patriots were without Rob Gronkowski on Sunday, and Sudfeld disappointed fantasy owners as he could not cash in on a huge opportunity. He had 19 snaps on the day, and only one target. All around disappointment.
Sit or Start, Week 2: Gronk is likely going to miss at least one more game, giving Sudfeld another opportunity to earn some playing time. Sudfeld should start making some plays at some point, but he is officially off any sort of must-start list. The Patriots have a good matchup at home against the Jets, but until Sudfeld proves he can put up some numbers, you have to bench him, and avoid him on waivers.
Stevan Ridley, RB
Stat Line: 46 rushing yards, one fumble
Projected FF points: 13.03
Actual FF points: 2.60
Week 1 was a struggle for the Patriots starting running back. Ridley put together a solid 5.1 yards per carry, but a fumble resulted in him getting surpassed for the day by Shane Vereen. Ridley finished the game with nine rushes, while Vereen had 14 rushes and seven receptions.
Editor's Note: Shane Vereen has since undergone surgery on his wrist and will miss upwards of four weeks.
Sit or Start, Week 2: Until we hear otherwise, Ridley is the starting running back. However, Vereen's performance has to have Ridley owners wondering what the heck is going on to a guy owned in virtually all leagues as an expected solid RB2. You can't cut bait on Ridley at this point, but tread lightly in the coming weeks. If you have to choose between Ridley and Vereen, I'd say Vereen is the better start right now.