Fantasy football owners aren't afraid to reach for overhyped rookies when draft day comes. We see the same thing every year.
In 2013, Montee Ball surged up draft boards, finishing with an average draft position (ADP) near Round 5-6. He rushed for 559 yards in his rookie year. Owners paid the price for investing so much stock in an unproven player fighting for snaps.
NFL Draft grades
When you look at the 2014 draft class, the group of incoming rookies seems more likely to disappoint fantasy owners in the fall. There are a few potential gems for this season, but most of the value among rookies in 2014 will factor in with dynasty leagues. Long-term value is key.
But for the upcoming fantasy year, owners should properly gauge when first-year players are falling. As we progress through camps and preseason games, some of these guys will be talked up and their ADP will rise. Don't overpay.
With the draft over, which rookies will be drafted the highest in fantasy leagues later this year? What kind of value are we looking at?
Bishop Sankey, Titans
Value range: RB2
Sankey fell into the best situation possible for this year's running back class. The Titans have Shonn Greene and Jackie Battle competing with Sankey. Versatile back with great physical tools > old, plodding backs.
I'm not blown away by what Sankey brings to the table, but he is good enough to warrant over 15 touches per game in that offense. Greene also recently underwent knee surgery. He'll miss all OTAs and post-draft activities. Time for Sankey to make an impression.
In his situation, Sankey is in the RB2 range. Last season Eddie Lacy was drafted on average at No. 30 overall in standard leagues. In you're getting into Round 4 and Sankey is available, he's a great option.
Johnny Manziel, Browns
Value Range: QB2
Josh Gordon, you disappoint us all. We were excited to see what kind of duo you and Johnny Football could form. Manziel is dealing with a lack of quality targets in Cleveland now. Fortunately, he can gain points with his legs.
Johnny Manziel
Kyle Shanahan did just fine with RG3 as a rookie. If he can beat out Brian Hoyer, who is coming off ACL surgery, Manziel is in the QB2 range. It's a deeper position now, but he has upside. Dynasty owners should be taking him first among quarterbacks.
Sammy Watkins, Bills
Value range: WR3
Watkins enters Bills camp as the No. 1 receiver. They traded up to get him. They got rid of Stevie Johnson. Watkins is going to be heavily involved.
Wide receiver is one of the toughest positions to adjust to in the NFL. Only three rookie wideouts caught over 50 passes last season, with Keenan Allen leading at 71 receptions. Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright finished at the top among rookie receivers in 2012 with 64 catches.
Considering Watkins' competition, he won't have to fight too much for targets. Marquise Goodwin showed brief glimpses of becoming a deep threat last season. T.J. Graham is still in the mix. But with plenty of targets, Watkins is a solid WR3 with fringe WR2 potential, depending on how E.J. Manuel develops.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Value Range: WR3-4
Evans' offense is loaded with potential. Vincent Jackson demands extra attention from opposing coverages, so Evans could see more 1-on-1 matchups, where he can excel. He size and physicality will translate well to the NFL.
If you're in a dynasty league, investing in Evans early would be wise. He's going to be an impact player for years to come. Tampa is probably going to be a run-first team in 2014, and they still don't have a quarterback anyone is sold on. But Josh McCown worked well with two monster receivers in Chicago. He can throw jump balls all day to Jackson and Evans. I'd be fine with Evans in Round 6 for 10-team leagues.
Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers
Value Range: WR 4-5
The Panthers receiving corps is bad. Tiquan Underwood might have been the best receiving option for Cam Newton prior to Benjamin's arrival. The 6-foot-5 rookie has great range, but he comes to the NFL unpolished. That won't matter too much in his rookie season.
Benjamin's competition is slim, so he's going to see targets often. He isn't the most athletic receiver and dynasty owners would be wise to take several of the other rookies ahead of him, but Benjamin is a huge target. He's a touchdown threat in the red zone. His value is high in 2014 due to the lack of value on his team.
Eric Ebron, Lions
Value Range: TE2
Is it crazy to consider Ebron a fringe TE1 for 2014? Probably, but it's not out of the question. Calvin Johnson constantly demands double coverage. Golden Tate is reliable receiver opposite Megatron. Ebron is going to be looking at single coverage and space to move underneath.
Tight end hasn't been the deepest position in recent years, but its improving. Ten tight ends caught 60 or more passes in 2014 (keep in mind Jermichael Finley and Rob Gronkowski missed significant action). Joe Lombardi worked wonders with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans. He's there to help Ebron take a step in the right direction from Day 1.
These players should be at the top of their positions among rookies. Who's next in line?
Quarterback
- Teddy Bridgewater - He's a QB2 if he starts. Norv Turner wanted him in Minnesota, and his coaching improves Bridgewater's value. Cordarelle Patterson is emerging as a stud; Adrian Peterson keeps the offense balanced and takes pressure of the passing game.
- Blake Bortles - Chad Henne is not a starting quarterback. Unfortunately the Jaguars are still committed to starting him in 2014. If they do go with Bortles at some point, he'll have Cecil Shorts, Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson to work with. Bortles might be the better choice above Bridgewater in dynasty leagues.
- Tom Savage - Like Henne, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a starting quarterback. Savage is a longshot to provide fantasy value in 2014, but the Texans are loaded with talent on offense.
- Jeremy Hill - A better talent than BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Hill can become the Bengals goal line back. The Law Firm rushed for 756 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Hill could eclipse those numbers in the same role. He's on the cusp of the RB2 range depending on his workload.
- Terrance West - The Browns added Ben Tate this offseason, but he's a back who struggles with durability over the course of a full season. West needs to be utilized even with Tate healthy. The competition will be close. RB3 with potential RB2 value.
- Andre Williams - A second coming of Brandon Jacobs, Williams provides absolutely zero value as a receiver. With the ball, though, he gets downhill and runs through defenders. Rashad Jennings is No. 1 on the depth chart, and David Wilson is expected to be healthy in training camp. Williams will at least beat out Peyton Hillis and presumably take goal line snaps.
- Devonta Freeman - More of a sleeper in fantasy drafts, Freeman has Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers to compete with. Jackson will still be the lead back if he's healthy, but we'll see how he looks at the age of 31. Freeman is a better talent than Quizz. Consider him as a fourth back on your roster.
- Brandin Cooks - A speedster playing indoors? I like Cooks' chances in the Superdome. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Kenny Stills make up a crowded receiving corps, but Cooks should emerge as a dangerous target for Drew Brees. Colston is aging while Darren Sproles and Lance Moore are gone. More targets for Cooks, a WR4/5.
- Odell Beckham - Victor Cruz mans the slot in New York. Hakeem Nicks is gone and the Giants have no experience at tight end. Beckham has a great chance to make an impact immediately. If Eli Manning can stay upright and recover from a miserable 2013, Beckham remains in the WR4 conversation.
- Jordan Matthews - A better talent than Riley Cooper, Matthews needs to move up on the depth chart to provide legitimate fantasy value in Year 1. Jeremy Maclin is coming off an ACL injury and he's entering a contract year. If Matthews doesn't produce right away, his long-term outlook is promising in dynasty leagues.
- Jace Amaro - Jeff Cumberland is his competition. That's all the confidence booster you need. The Jets have few receiving weapons, so Amaro will factor in from Week 1.
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins - Jackson and Evans will see a good majority of the targets, and Tim Wright is still battling for playing time. ASJ is a good dynasty option, but he probably won't make a splash as a rookie.