Monitoring average draft position (ADP) is a vital part of any fantasy draft. This is where you pinpoint which players are value picks and which ones are entering bust territory.
Running back is such a volatile position from year to year. While the bust rates for running back are somewhat comparable to wide receiver, the scarcity of the position makes it more noticeable when one of your top players fails to live up to expectations.
I've targeted several players I'm looking to stay away from this year, as they will likely become busts at their current ADP. Here are four running backs you should look to avoid.
Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins
Moreno turned out to be a great value pick for fantasy owners in 2013. That payoff won't repeat this season, as he's in a much worse scenario with the Dolphins.
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The majority of Moreno's value last season derived from playing in the league's best offense. Opposing defenses focused on Peyton Manning and Denver's passing game, leaving Moreno plenty of room to run.
According to Pro Football Focus, Moreno faced a nickel or dime defense on 83 percent of his carries. He basically took the yardage he was given. Moreno only averaged 2.03 yards after contact per carry, one of the worst marks for running backs with over 150 carries.
Moreno underwent a knee scope earlier this summer, and he's not even taking contact at this point. He's coming off surgery and joining a new team, where he likely won't even see game reps until the end of preseason. That's not a situation you would expect someone of Moreno's talent to thrive in.
His ADP of pick 10.03 in mock drafts eliminates most risk, because you're not investing much in him at that point in your draft. But with Lamar Miller looking like the superior runner and Daniel Thomas in the mix as well, I can't see Moreno getting many opportunities to make a real impact for your lineup.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers
When he's healthy, he can produce. Mathews' 2013 campaign was proof of that, as he finally played all 16 games and rushed for a career-high 1,255 yards. How should you value him coming off that kind of season?
If the Chargers were rolling with the same depth chart as last season, I'd feel better about Mathews' outlook. However, they brought in Donald Brown, who is now the only running back under contract past 2014.
Brown thrived with added competition in Indianapolis last season. He averaged 0.49 points per opportunity, ranking second among all running backs with at least 100 carries. He averaged 3.28 yards after contact per carry. He's going to be a factor in San Diego.
Danny Woodhead has his same role in the Chargers offense, and he'll be utilized often in passing situations. Mathews' does not get much of a boost in PPR leagues, so owners should factor that in as well.
Per PFF, Mathews finished with a 6.2 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD) in 2013. This stat basically goes beyond simple red-zone data and examines where the play touched the ball and what the average rate of scoring would be from that point. Mathews took 15 carries from inside the 10-yard line, while Woodhead had 11 attempts. Ronnie Brown only saw four from that range.
Mathews fumbled at the 1-yard line in his first preseason game. Head coach Mike McCoy said he's going to keep feeding Mathews despite that mistake, something Norv Turner wouldn't have done last season. While Mathews is a better red zone threat than Woodhead, the newly acquired Brown will eat into those touches as well.
With Mathews' ADP currently valued at pick 4.04, he might be going a bit too high for a player working out of a three-headed backfield. It all depends on his usage. I expect five to six touchdowns and right around 1,000 yards, shades under last year's mark. His prior injury woes are something to consider as well.
Chris Johnson, New York Jets
The days of CJ2K are gone. The days of CJ1K might disappear after this year, too. Johnson enters a Jets backfield where he will compete with Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell for touches in 2014. For a player that needs volume to succeed, Johnson's outlook does not provide much promise.
In 2013, Johnson gained 513 yards after contact on 279 carries. For reference, Adrian Peterson gained 829 yards after contact on the same number of touches. It's hard to even remember the years where owners draft Johnson ahead of Peterson.
As Rich Hribar of XN Sports noted, Johnson has 48 career rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line. He scored on 17 on those runs for a touchdown rate of 35.4 percent. Ivory and Powell both have higher career touchdown rates from this range.
To make matters worse, the Jets were terrible in run blocking last year, and with several aging offensive linemen, they won't improve much in this area. Johnson moved from a good run-blocking team with little competition for him to a bad run-blocking team with a committee backfield. Why are owners still drafting him in Round 5?
Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Some owners are pegging Richardson as a bounce-back candidate in 2014. Do yourself a favor and take a risk elsewhere.
It's easy to get carried away with preseason action. Some owners will invest far too much time discussing one player's five reps in the first game of the year. However, what we some from Richardson in his opening preseason game was concerning.
Richardson gained 13 yards on five carries. He looked like the same, frustrating back we watched all last season. He's another running back who basically takes the yardage he's given and does little else.
After averaging 3.0 yards per carry last season, Richardson has gone from a borderline first-round pick to a fifth-round selection in drafts. His ADP is still too high for my liking.
The Colts lost left guard Donald Thomas already, as he'll likely miss all of 2014 after tearing his quad. That doesn't help Richardson's situation. The best thing going for him is really the inability of the rest of his backfield to stay healthy. Vick Ballard is out for the year, and Ahmad Bradshaw is still resting after coming back from neck surgery.
If Bradshaw stays healthy, he is a threat to Richardson's workload. Either way, I don't see the former first-round pick paying off at his current price. Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey are better picks going around the same time Richardson is being drafted.