If the U.S. Open were to make its cuts now, the line would be drawn 5-over. But the prevailing feeling around the course is that the line will continue to come down; after all, it's still early and there's more high numbers out there than low ones. With the first groupings of the day just coming off the course, there's little red to be found -- a recipe for numbers near double-digits over par.
This is where we stand: Most, including myself, feel the cut line will end up at either 8- or 9-over. With few players under par and nearly everyone falling down the leaderboard, the line should start to move significantly soon. Many players sitting at or around 5-over have yet to tee off, and low numbers are going to be almost impossible this afternoon.
And remember: The 10-shot rule is gone this year. Only the top-60 and ties will continue on to the weekend.
Of note, Casey Martin bogeyed his final hole and is at 9-over for the tournament, right on the projected number. Rory McIlroy is at 10-over, and needed to birdie one of both of his final two holes. Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson, who tee-off at 1:18 local time, also need to battle to stay on the right side of the cut line.
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