Nooooooo, it's the last major of the season. How is the PGA Championship here already?
This is the one major that the Olympics forced out of its usual spot on the schedule, moving the PGA from its mid-August date to just 10 days after that incredible Sunday at The Open. It doesn't seem appropriate for what is arguably the most exciting major championship, but here we are catching our breath and ready to dive back in. Some picks and predictions for the week at Baltusrol.
We've had three first-time major winners this year. Who are some of the top candidates to break through and get their major this week at Baltusrol?
Emily: Sergio Garcia — the perennial "top candidate to break through and get his first major" — will end his long international nightmare. And pigs will fly.
Brendan: The two most obvious candidates are Lee Westwood and Sergio. Both would follow a Stenson route of Euros with world-class talent who have won tournaments all over the globe and come close at the majors many times. They have far more experience with those close calls than Stenson, including this summer. Westwood played alongside Danny Willett at the Masters and Dustin Johnson at the U.S. Open both late on Sunday. Sergio has had yet another strong summer and has been a trendy pick all year to win at Oakmont and then Troon ... and now Baltusrol. They're the choices for a first-time winner.
Trevor: My man Sergio let me down at The Open, but you can always include him in this category. Rickie Fowler hasn't been great in the 2016 majors, but he does have seven top 10s this year. I suppose it's always possible he could break through.
Kyle: This train's moving too fast and this is no time for me to hop off of it. Think Sergio's in-form and a good bet here, but I don't feel as certain about him as I did at the Open or as I will in Rio in a couple weeks. There's something I like about Justin Thomas on this golf course, so, yeah, I'm gonna ride with that.
Who is your dark horse pick to win, or just contend?
Brendan: I'll go a little deeper down the odds board and take Matthew Fitzpatrick, who is 150/1 this week. Fitz got some hype this summer after a strong Masters, but was meh in both Opens. He led the field in GIR at Augusta, which was many months ago, but I like him to bookend his majors season with another strong showing at Baltusrol. I'm not sure you could call Brandt Snedeker a dark horse, but at 50/1, he's also good value based on some of his numbers and recent form.
Emily: Magic 8 Ball says Jhonattan Vegas will follow up his Canadian Open victory with a strong showing at Baltusrol. Or he'll miss the cut. Or something in between.
Which big name, or names, are the best candidates to disappoint and exit before the weekend?
Kyle: Psssssssssst. I'm selling Jason Day this week. I honestly think he's burnt out after the jampacked travel schedule. It's not so much that I'm concerned about a player never seeing a golf course until one day before a tournament -- Baltusrol is a fine place to do that, really. I'm more concerned about the change in behavior for Day. He's known as a guy that often shows up well in advance at majors -- and is often over-prepared. Small changes in routine can create big problems for professional golfers. I've got some concerns this week.
Trevor: I don't mean to contradict myself here, but I said above that Rickie Fowler could break through. He could also flame out like he has done in all the majors so far this year. Going missed cut, missed cut, and T46 doesn't really give me a lot of confidence for Flower this weekend.
Emily: Jordan Spieth — Will it be the media, the weather, or some other entity (perhaps his new "Smart" golf shoes will go on the fritz and spit out erroneous data on his sleep, daily activity, and nutrition) to blame for the two-time major winner's early exit this week?
Brendan: I hate to keep coming back to this, but I will say Fowler here again. It seems like we've put him in this spot all summer and I'm not sure much has changed. It's just not come together for Rick this year, starting with that abomination of a first round at Augusta. This course may set up well for him, and he could be that candidate to continue that "first-time winner trend." I remain hesitant given that he's not really even been in contention since early May. I'm also sliiiiightly worried about Phil Mickelson hitting a bunch of drivers. /ducks
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The PGA has provided some of the best major championship drama of the past five years. But is the PGA still the fourth major? If last, why?
Kyle: No. It's the best major. But more on that later.
Brendan: The PGA is a GREAT event. I prefer the style and scoring much more than the U.S. Open. That said, the schedule completely screwed it over this year. No one is ready yet for this major. There was no hype, no buildup, no time to catch our breath from that incredible weekend at Royal Troon. It sucks and ain't fair, but that doesn't mean these four days can't be great. It's not last for me, but comes after The Open and the Masters.
Emily: This year, it's more like a who-cares table setter for the Olympics than one of the four most prestigious tourneys on the men's schedule. The fourth major just two weeks after perhaps the most dramatic finish in major history? Ridiculous.
Trevor: Yes, it's fourth, but by default. It can't compete with the others in terms of prestige and history. But it is true that it is extremely entertaining. Could you imagine if Twitter was around in 1991 when John Daly came out of nowhere to win the PGA?
Expectations for:
Phil Mickelson
Brendan: As I noted above, I'm worried about Phil having to hit a bunch of drivers on these long par-4s. The rough won't be as brutal as Oakmont, but it's still penal. Everyone will be riding Phil this week after his work at Troon and his win the last time the PGA visited Baltusrol. Those aren't bad things to cite when predicting success, I'm just worried it makes it too easy and everyone over-excited so soon after Troon. His game with new swing coach Andrew Getson seems just about where he wants it ... but that driver, man. I'm scared.
Emily: Lefty has good memories of Baltusrol, having won his only PGA title there in 2005. But that was 11 years ago, when Jordan Spieth was 12! Mickelson may be coming off one of the most exciting finishes in major history with a score that would have secured the Claret Jug in 141 of the past 145 British Opens, he has been playing terrifically well, and no doubt has more gas in the tank. But he is 46 and his heroic Open efforts may have left him sputtering near empty as the PGA kicks off just 11 days after he gave it all he had at Royal Troon.
Rory McIlroy
Emily: With a case of the third-round blues, starting with a 77 on Masters Saturday, the real question surrounding the former Boy Wonder is which club he'll toss, smash, or otherwise render inoperable during a frustrating run to his eighth straight major with no W.
Brendan: My love for Rory is unconditional and despite the impression that some talking heads may give off, he's had a strong season. We need to get a better handle on our expectations for McIlroy. The PGA is probably his favorite major and this is a course that sets up well for his tee-to-green game. I'm concerned about putting inside 10 feet, but the lags seem more important on these large greens. Rory's back inside the top 10 yet again -- he's too talented -- but will go without a major this year.
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Jason Day
Emily: Seems like ages ago in this jam-packed 2016 golf season that the world No. 1 came out on top of a PGA Tour event. Back in mid-May, after the W at The Players, Tiger's protégé seemed to be on an Eldrick-esque run in which it looked as if he might prevail in every event he entered. Since then, he's had two top 10s, including a T8 at the U.S. Open and he'll likely contend, but not defend, his PGA title.
Brendan: He's too good and too long to not contend at this PGA. Should we be worried that he's not going to see the course for the first time until the eve of the championship? He'll play his first practice round on Wednesday after taking a couple days to rest following back-to-back events in Scotland and Canada. It's not the ideal or typical Day approach, but again, he's too good and the PGA is his kind of major. I expect another top 10 for the Aussie, just not the kind of dominance we witnessed last year.
Jordan Spieth
Brendan: Despite your negativity, the golden child has still had a good season! We're just using the impossible 2015 benchmark that is not realistic for the rest of his career. He's not struck the ball particularly well at the majors, although he did say that came together better than it has in a long time at The Open. There, he just didn't get any putts to drop. He's playing faster after a deliberate change at Firestone at the start of this month, and claims that has helped his rhythm. After two middling finishes at The Open, Jordan gets back inside the top 10 again this week at the PGA.
Yes, I just wrote that Spieth, Rory, and Day will all finish inside the top 10. Strap in, y'all.
Who wins the Wanamaker Trophy? And what's the winning number?
Emily: J.B. Holmes — come on down! You earn the Kay Kiss of Death as this Golfstradamus, no doubt, will continue to go 0-fer-the-majors by choosing you to sip from the Wanamaker Trophy. Sure, Holmes missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but he won the B-flight at Royal Troon, and this year is all about first-time major winners. And going all in on this coin-flipping exercise, look for the owner of four PGA Tour victories to smash the major scoring record, currently held by defending champ Day and British victor Henrik Stenson, and lap the field with a whopping 21-under. Hey, it could happen.
Trevor: I got away from picking Rory at the Open (I picked him in the first two majors this year), but his 345-yard missile during the long drive contest got me all excited. I'm back in on Rors even if he prefers working out to playing golf (I'm kidding, I'm kidding). He's still the most talented player in the world and I think Baltusrol sets up well for his game.
Kyle: I think we see the big names dominate this week -- and it's time for a pissed-off Rory McIlroy to shut up the golf world. As Trevor said, he's still far too talented to not be in contention -- and this seems like a golf course where he can get it going by taking advantage of his ability to drive the golf ball. Greens are big, lag putting might be more important than the short ones. This is Rory's time to continue his pattern of winning every other PGA Championship since 2012.
Brendan: I am going wayyyyyy out on the limb this week and taking the favorite, Dustin Johnson. I took him at Royal Troon and I am doing it here again. He's the best driver in the world, and, well, that is a huge advantage everywhere these pros play. It will be a huge help on these long par-4s at Baltusrol. It's not like he flopped at The Open -- he shot no worse than 72 and finished inside the top 10. I still believe this is the summer of DJ and he's going to light up Balty.
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