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Michael Young's Place In The AL West: A Valuable Learning Experience

By Rob Neyer - National Baseball Editor

ARLINGTON TX - OCTOBER 22: Michael Young #10 of the Texas Rangers celebrates in the lockerroom after defeating the New York Yankees 6-1 in Game Six of the ALCS to advance to the World Series during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 22 2010 in Arlington Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Four years ago, Rob Neyer overrated Michael Young, and one of SB Nation's bloggers called him on it. What have we learned in the time that's passed?

Feb 1, 2011 - Four years ago, Joe Posnanski asked me a bunch of questions about the American League West, among which was, "Who do you think is the best everyday player in the division?"

My answer -- Michael Young -- resulted in a blog post titled, "Rob Neyer has totally lost it."

Here's my favorite part:

Young's a career .276/.317/.413 hitter away from Ameriquest, and even if you think his "actual ability level" is a little higher than that, calling him the best everyday player in the division is beyond batshit insane. In no particular order, and discounting contracts, I'd rather have the following AL West position players:

Ichiro, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Kenji Johjima, maybe Raul Ibanez, Mark Teixeira, Gerald Laird, Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez, Mark Ellis, maybe Bobby Crosby, Vlad Guerrero, Howie Kendrick, Orlando Cabrera, Maicer Izturis, and Juan Rivera. Chone Figgins and guys like Gary Matthews Jr. and Mark Kotsay are borderline. I might even be forgetting a few.

Calling Michael Young the best everyday player in the AL West is laughable, and a fantastic example of why Rob Neyer is no longer relevant. He's done a lot of good in his life for the analyst community, but he's been finished for a while now, and this is Exhibit Z.

Oof. Only 41, and I'd already been finished for a while?

Let's look at all those guys, though, including the five players obviously more desirable (to the blogger), the 12 maybes and the three borderliners (and one that didn't make any of those lists but probably should have).

I don't know that it would change the results much, but I prefer to look at two seasons (2007 and '08) rather than just one, as that irons out some of the luck. And for the same reason, let's look at a couple of metrics: Win Shares, and Wins Above Replacement (via Baseball-Reference.com).

I won't keep you in suspense.

Over those two seasons, Young's got 43 Win Shares, good for sixth place. He's well behind Teixeira (53), Ichiro (52) and Guerrero (51), and essentially tied with Cabrera (44) and Ibanez (44). Mark Ellis ranks seventh with only 33 WS. So according to Win Shares, I missed badly by three players. Which isn't good.

Over those two seasons, Young fares somewhat better in WAR. With 6.9, he's tied for fourth behind Ichiro (11.2), Guerrero (7.8) ... and Ian Kinsler (9.1), who didn't make any of those lists above. Meanwhile, Teixeira (6.0) comes in seventh, behind all those guys plus Ellis (6.9) and Beltre (6.2). I'm not sure why Tex fares so poorly here, though I'm happy to knock him down a peg for spending roughly half of this two-season period in Quadruple-A (a.k.a. the National League).

So Young's (roughly) fourth in Win Shares and fourth in WAR. Is it reasonable to suggest that he was the fourth best American League West player entering the 2007 season? Or even the third best? Kinsler racked up 41 Win Shares (along with that hefty WAR) during those two seasons, and I'm happy to allow that he was better than Young.

I was wrong. I was terribly wrong about Ichiro not being better than Mike Young, and I was significantly wrong about Guerrero not being better than Mike Young. That blog post would have been more informative if it had simply taken me to task for missing Ichiro, Guerrero, and perhaps Teixeira, who'd been real good in 2006 and was just entering his peak seasons. And bonus points to the blogger if he'd flagged Kinsler, who was 24 and coming off a solid rookie campaign.

That would have been more educational than throwing names like Yuniesky Betancourt and Mark Kotsay and Gerald Laird at the wall and hoping some of them would stick.

It wouldn't have been nearly as much fun, though. If it was just three or four legitimate names ... well, then maybe Neyer -- the old geezer! -- just forgot a few guys. But 20 guys? If you miss 20 guys, then you're just downright incompetent, if not demented. Finished. Which makes for a more entertaining blog post. And it's a World Wide Web; if you're not entertaining them, they'll find somewhere else to kill time.

I don't know. Maybe there's a middle ground in there somewhere. An overreliance on facts has always been one of my weaknesses as a writer, and always will be. Even aside from not underrating Ichiro, I could learn a lot from blog posts, including the awareness that every writer, but especially those (theoretically!) "middle-aged," must forever remain vigilant against the deadly specter of Irrelevance.

So who wrote all those terrible things about me?

Our very own Jeff Sullivan, who then (as now) ran Lookout Landing and currently does fantastic work every day on this very page.

I think I'm going to learn a lot from this kid.

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio

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Comments

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Dayton Moore did

Maybe he still does and is heartbroken about trading him

"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM
"My parents actually loved to pimp me too." - LSJ

by chrisR on Feb 1, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Wow

I had no idea he posted a 0.0 UZR in 2006. I thought he was actually good, like everyone else.

Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...

by appleshampoo on Feb 2, 2011 5:29 AM EST up reply actions  

There is a difference in tone between "Ichiro is better"

and “Michael Young wouldn’t even make a roster of the best compiled position players of the NL West”.

by kbukie on Feb 1, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep in mind this was written after 2006

I swear it wasn’t as embarrassing then as it is now

by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 1, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't realize not walking was affected by being in a pitcher's park

Also, when just looking at non-advanced fielding stats Young (.981) had a better FP than Betancourt (.972).

Now I’m not claiming that Young played great defense, but he fielded the balls he got to, so I don’t see why Betancourt would have been considered a good defender by those standards but not Young.

by MikeEl on Feb 1, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Or to phrase this better

Has he always been this terrible or about this bad?

by BrianL on Feb 1, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Fielding percentage really only tells you how often a player commits an error.

(and lets not get into the subjectivity of errors)

It doesn’t measure how many balls a player can get to and that’s a really, really important factor. Perhaps even more important than how many errors they commit.

by BrianL on Feb 1, 2011 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

It was the eye test.

Betancourt looked like an absolute defensive wizard when he came up. Everyone in Seattle was buzzing over his defense, as were all the scouts who watched him play. He also had a reputation as the best defensive SS in the minors when coming through San Antonio and Tacoma.

For comparison’s sake, back then, Yuni looked like the player Elvis Andrus looks like now, only with a slightly more powerful bat. It’s not absolutely absurd to prefer that player to Michael Young. A little over-aggressive, maybe, but like Jeff said, that statement was less embarrassing then than it is now.

A lot of the time players who look destined for minor stardom become what we expect them to. Sometimes they learn the wrong lessons from leaving a planned economy where wealth is strictly regulated and coming into untold riches. Sometimes when that happens they gain 30-40 pounds and lose all mobility, thus becoming useless sacks of human waste. It happens. It happened to Betancourt. Time to move on.

by slamcactus on Feb 1, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Neyer'd.

Just because this post may not contain a pun, I have not surrendered my pun-alienable rights.

by thehemogoblin on Feb 1, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Don’t worry. I’ve often been told I over rate Young! I think he’s one of the better players in the division, no doubt. But best…… yeah, that’s going too far.

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by Marisa Ingemi on Feb 1, 2011 12:17 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

This can't be stated enough.

"The world would truly be a better place if you didn’t exsist. You should just lean over the plate and take one for the team, run into oncoming traffic or something." -S l c Ranger HE MAD! The internet is serious business.

by TooLegitToQuit on Feb 1, 2011 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Two Lessons Learned, I think:

1. It’s ok to shit upward … when you’re right.

2. It’s always easier to say “overrated” than it is to project greatness. The latter is rarely correct.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Feb 1, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Rob took the high road.

The low road is “YUNIESKY BETANCOURT LMAO WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING!?”

Read these things I wrote: Archive

by Andy Hutchins on Feb 1, 2011 12:52 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Rob has much to learn about writing on a blog. lol.

by Cormican on Feb 1, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Or contract.

I’d still take Kinsler, though health is the concern.

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Feb 1, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Hamilton is the best position player in the AL West

hands down. How long he can stay this good remains to be seen, but right now there really can’t be any other answer. Kinsler and Ichiro battle it out for #2 (I’d give it to Kinsler if I was more sure about his ability to stay on the field), and Cruz, Morales, Gutierrez, Barton, and Hunter make up the next tier IMO.

by slamcactus on Feb 1, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Teixeira's War

Am I missing something, or did you not add Tex’s WAR correctly? bWAR for 07-08 has (2.7, 2.3, 4.0 and 3.3) 12.3 and fWAR has (4.2 and 7.3) for 11.5.

by Church of the Perpetually Outraged on Feb 1, 2011 12:56 PM EST reply actions  

I think he substracted the WAR he accrued while in the NL

"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM
"My parents actually loved to pimp me too." - LSJ

by chrisR on Feb 1, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

But then this first part makes zero sense

“I’m not sure why Tex fares so poorly here”. If you are subtracting 691 total PAs (roughly a full season), of course his “two year total” is going to look bad because you are only counting one year! Discount it 0.5 WAR for each season, or pro-rate the AL WAR over a full season’s worth of PAs. To eliminate it completely and then wonder why the number is so low is dumbfounding.

by Church of the Perpetually Outraged on Feb 1, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Michael Young has changed positions

How much of those totals is opportunity. Would Young have rated better or worse if he had stayed at SS the entire time?

by DJL44 on Feb 1, 2011 1:04 PM EST reply actions  

He was a godawful SS

presumably it evens out

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 1, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Young didn't move to 3B until 2009

He was just talking about 2007-2008 numbers.

by MikeEl on Feb 1, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Seriously?
half of this two-season period in Quadruple-A (a.k.a. the National League)

I miss gdm

by Aranathor on Feb 1, 2011 1:21 PM EST reply actions  

It wouldn't be a Rob Neyer column

if it didn’t piss off some fans with snark (including myself).

But seriously, welcome to SBN, Rob!

by ken on Feb 1, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Not quite that bad
Let’s look at all those guys, though, including the five players obviously more desirable (to the blogger), the 12 maybes and the three borderliners

It doesn’t change your point, but I think this is a misrepresentation of Sullivan’s list, which doesn’t appear to be a ranking. It looks like he simply went team-by-team through the AL West and listed the players on each team he thought were better than Young. Each instance of “maybe” refers only to the name immediately following (i.e., Ibanez and Crosby).

In other words, Ichiro, Yuni(!!), Lopez(!), Beltre and Johjima(!!!) were not his five “obvious” choices but were simply five players on the first team he looked at.

It’s still a funny (in retrospect) list, but give him a bit of credit. :-)

by Eric H. on Feb 1, 2011 1:34 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

If you accept the notion that Michael Young is acceptable as a shortstop, then his offensive stats in 2006 would be very valuable for that position. Jeter, Tejada, and Guillen were the only AL shortstops with a higher wOBA in 2006. For some reason, Young’s advanced defensive stats at shortstop weren’t bad in 2006 (+4 TZ; +0.4 UZR; -7 DRS). Perhaps that just shows the sample size issue with defensive metrics, or perhaps he had a good year as a fielder.

by clack on Feb 1, 2011 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

I think the "hive mind" has...

… also forgotten about Young’s perceived defense 4 years ago.

If you ignore actual stats (and a lot of people do today… even more ignored them 4 years ago), then you have to go with perception. Scouts told “people”, and they told reporters, and we all had a sense of how good guys were defensively. Old schoolers liked fielding percentage. Stat-heads disliked fielding percentage, but they also conceded that defensive metrics weren’t all that good.

So, what was the perception 4 years ago. Yeah, now we all think of Young with stone feet. But back then?

Go back to the beginning of his career, and the debate among Ranger fans was Young at second for his glove, or Cat at second for his bat. After A-Rod left, moving Young to short seemed like the obvious choice. His defense was a strength. Even 4 years ago, I think the general perception was that Young was still a plus in the field. Maybe a few people trying to change the perception, but not many.

I believe that 4 years ago, you would have found that most people would have considered Young a plus at defense. Probably would have thought Yuni was better, but Young… yeah, he was good.

by Oracle Galvez on Feb 1, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Back then...

Young was considered a guy who had absolutely no business playing shortstop. We didn’t have UZR publicly available, but we had +/-, which also used ball-in-play data. It consistently rated Young as one of the worst shortstops in the game. From 2005-2007, Dewan’s plus-minus system had Derek Jeter as the worst SS in baseball, with Michael Young as #2.

I believe that 4 years ago, you would have found that most people would have considered Young a plus at defense. Probably would have thought Yuni was better, but Young… yeah, he was good.

You believe incorrectly. Young was thought to be capable at 2B, but an absolute liability at SS. There’s a reason Texas risked alienating fans by telling a fan favorite he had to switch positions for a youngster who can’t hit. There’s a reason they consider Adrian Beltre a big enough upgrade to displace Young from his new position. Young sucks at defense and anyone who watches him knows it.

by slamcactus on Feb 1, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, go look at Young’s gold glove! :)

by clack on Feb 2, 2011 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

How long has this rebuttal been eating at you Rob?

Finally — it sees the light of day with an irreverent jab at a co-writer ;)

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twitter: @tdaloisio

by tdaloisio on Feb 1, 2011 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

Clever

seriously though, it’s a generally tired line, and doesn’t really do much but try to piss off NL fans.

Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics

by Andrew Martin on Feb 1, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

nah, not really

I’m fully aware that the AL is better than the NL right now, and typically it’s a cyclical thing.

It’s just kind of a needless jab, IMO. That’s all.

Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics

by Andrew Martin on Feb 1, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

why do you think its cyclical?

the bigger money is going to in the AL for as far as a I can see.

who is the gentleman in the red cap making a duck/gangsta face? -OzzieMontana

by e-gus on Feb 1, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Just historically speaking

There’s been periods when the NL has dominated, and periods when the AL has dominated. Right now, as you said, the bigger money is in the AL, given the obvious culprits, and it’s no surprise that the AL is the better league right now.

Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics

by Andrew Martin on Feb 1, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I don't know about that.

Someone remind me, what league were the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants in again?

(/slinks back to McC, his work here complete)

It's Johnnie Walker inside.

by Lies and Perfidy on Feb 1, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

We all know...

That while it’s pretty sweet you won the world series, it proves nothing. :)

by Patrick42 on Feb 2, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not enjoying you guys making fun of yourselves/each other in a light-hearted manner

It would be much more entertaining for Rob and Jeff to talk smack about each other and imply that the other was completely full of shit for the next, I don’t know, five years.

SBNation.com Soccer contributor

by Kevin McCauley on Feb 1, 2011 2:40 PM EST reply actions  

2 posts in one day?

How long can he keep this up?

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Feb 1, 2011 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

Young...

is like a very (emphasis on very – i’m not saying he’s anywhere near as good – don’t slam me for comp’ing these players, because that’s not what I’m doing) poor man’s Derek Jeter (again – don’t yell at me for saying Michael Young is anywhere as good as Derek Jeter – that’s not what I’m saying. I want to underscore this point). He’s so overrated by traditional baseball outlets that he gets underrated by stats guys. I think that may be why Jeff took special offense, since Neyer belongs to the latter category so it was weird to see him praise Young so highly.

Young has serious flaws. He’s a poor defender and had absolutely no business playing SS for all those years, and his contract became an albatross the moment it was signed, but he’s also a pretty valuable player. By UZR/wOBA, he’s been between 2.4-4.2 WAR for 8 consecutive years. That’s a nice stretch of above-average value.

Of course, his value will plummet now that he’ll be getting most of his ABs at DH, but he still had those 8 years. Young was never as good as the DFW-area beat writers and BBTN folk made him out to be, but he wasn’t as bad as members of the stats community represented. It was an overly-aggressive response by the “enlightened” folk to overly-effusive praise by the folks that the “enlightened” folk liked to regard as uninformed, deluded saps.

by slamcactus on Feb 1, 2011 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

Hm...
but he’s also a pretty valuable player.

Instead of “valuable” I should probably have said “good.” He’s pretty clearly not worth his contract (making him not very valuable), but he’s also a useful player once you look past that.

by slamcactus on Feb 1, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

he's not chopped liver

 A lot of teams would like a guy who’s a team leader and has a lifetime average of 300 and is closing on some good milestones, 2,000 hits, 1,000 runs, and will pass 1,000 rbis in about 2 years. He doesn’t do one thing at bat that is eye-poppingly great, but he’s done most everything pretty well.
 His defense really went downhill this year, and frankly, he needs to be a left fielder now. He’s still got decent speed, it’s just that his first step quickness is gone.

I have come here to chew bubble gum and kick ass, and I am all out of bubble gum.

by Tex Pantego on Feb 1, 2011 3:50 PM EST reply actions  

This year?

Left field? Ugh.

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Feb 1, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

What is up with the 'z' key on this site?

It’s working fine on other SBN sites for me but one hit on z here goes through 2 or 3 comments instead of one.

What if something happens?!?
What could happen to an Old Fashioned?

by t ball on Feb 1, 2011 10:03 PM EST reply actions  

#6org

Toki: Clowns are, statistically, the most hated of all creatures.
Skwisgaar: Statisticallies or not, but, uh, just don'ts likes this guy.

by Dr.Rockso on Feb 1, 2011 10:06 PM EST reply actions  

Still wrong about Young

First off, welcome to Sports Nation.

Second, even in retrospect you’re wrong about Young though Jeff was a bit over zealous in his list of 15-20. Basically the whole prediction and evaluation hinges on Young’s defense. The three years prior to 2007 he was -31, -25, +4. In 2007 and 2008 he was -8 and +10.

If you correctly observed that Young had made changes to his defense and would be a near neutral defender going forward, and that 2006 wasn’t a fluke (either his performance or the rating system), then kudos to you.

That said, the ranking of Young as top 5 or 6 player hinges strongly on his +10 season in 2008. Given that our defensive metrics are attempts to evaluate what happened and not records of fact (like hits and home runs) and he’s -8 and -9 in adjacent seasons and he was 31, that +10 is an incredible outlier. Maybe it’s a flaw in our defensive metrics or maybe he had a lucky season (like a .380 BABIP).

If you figure Young for a conservative -5 fielding runs in 2008, he drops to 5.4 WAR. Still in the top 20 and ahead of a lot of Jeff’s list, but not a premium player and a poor choice as best player (which to your credit, you’ve acknowledged).

by AdamSt on Feb 2, 2011 1:01 AM EST reply actions  

Seriously, Rob, Win Shares?

This is going to be fun.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2011 10:12 AM EST reply actions  

A good lesson in civility!

I think what this post teaches more than anything is that blogging, for all its merit, can suffer from two big things: 1) hyperbole (a minor infraction) and 2) a lack of civility (a major infraction). I don’t think Jeff—who does great work here as Rob mentioned—was out of line by calling Rob’s opinion “beyond batshit insane.” That’s sort of colorful and humorous and just an attack on a position, which anyone should have thick skin about. Seems a lot worse to call someone irrelevant or a has-been since then you are going for the person. Always good to avoid that—you might work with the person someday…

by Brad Newberg on Feb 2, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

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