Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
How did Ross Ohlendorf win his salary-arbitration case last week, having gone 1-11 in 2010? Well, it seems sensible enough to me, but Ohlendorf's victory gives Murray Chass another chance to hearken to a better day, when men were men and two or three stats were plenty, thanks ...
They basically emphasized statistics other than wins and losses, especially the run support the Pirates provided Ohlendorf. In the new age of judging pitchers run support has become a telling factor. That’s why Hernandez won his Cy Young award.
Under this new-age thinking, if a team doesn’t score more than three runs a game, a pitcher isn’t expected to win. No longer is a pitcher expected to win 3-2 or 2-1. If his team doesn’t score at least four runs, it’s not the pitcher’s fault if he doesn’t win.
There was once a time when pitchers were expected to win unless their team scored no runs, and then they were expected to tie. But those days disappeared with the advent of the quality start, the questionable creation of a Detroit writer, John Lowe, a nice guy but a little off in his thinking.
If a pitcher pitches six innings and gives up three or fewer earned runs he is credited with a quality start. Never mind that three earned runs in six innings computes to a 4.50 earned run average; that’s a quality start.
I'm sorry I don't have numbers for you; I had them once, but have lost them. So I just hope you'll trust me when I assure you that if you add all the quality starts together, you're going to find some outstanding numbers, including a fantastic winning percentage and a low ERA.
When guys like Murray Chass want to run down some statistic they weren't smart enough to think of themselves, they fixate on the worst examples. It's certainly true that a pitcher can get a Quality Start with a 4.50 ERA, and that a reliever can get a Save despite giving up two runs in one inning. Outrageous!
I'm curious, though ... Does it offend Chass when a pitcher is credited with a win despite giving up seven runs in five innings? Does it offend Chass when a hitter is credited with an RBI when he hits a sacrifice fly in the ninth inning with his team trailing by seven runs? Does it offend Chass when one guy gets a hit on a broken-bat blooper, and the next is out on a screaming line drive hit directly toward the shortstop?
Every statistic has limitations. And I've noticed over the years that a willingness to either ignore a limitation or rail against it can largely be predicted by someone's birthday.
Update: Thanks to Jay Jaffe for pointing out -- in this 2007 piece at Baseball Prospectus -- that in 2005 I reported that all the QS that season added up to a 2.04 ERA ... and the non-QS, 7.70. Not that Quality Starts mean anything. Not at all.
12 comments
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DO NOT FEED THE TROLLS
That really should be included with your bill from your ISP.
At this point, Murray Chass is a troll. He used to write for the New York Times, but he took an (involuntary, reportedly) buyout almost three years ago. THREE YEARS AGO. We’re in a world where many respected baseball writers have left older media outlets and landed at new, almost entirely digital ones — Rob here, Peter Gammons at MLB.com, Tracy Ringolsby at foxsports.com (and Baseball America), etc. Joe Sheehan and Bill James have proven their worth by starting paid-for email newsletters.
Murray Chass?
Writes a web journal of baseball columns, on his own site, for free, a lot like 400,000 other people.
Chass writes for reactions like this. Reactions like this keep him relevant. He’s not. If one of those 400,000 people wrote the same garbage that Chass wrote, they’d be doing so in front of crickets. Chass should be met by the same audience — an audience of zero.
by Dan Lewis on Feb 13, 2011 9:09 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Two edits
“Proven their worth” isn’t the correct term of phrase, oops.
And James’ isn’t a newsletter, but the point otherwise stands.
by Dan Lewis on Feb 13, 2011 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
Get outta my yard!
Seriously, though, there are a few of us slightly older citizens who love the game AND like to use our brains. I was reading Bill James when Bill James wasn’t cool!
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
by sddbaker on Feb 13, 2011 9:09 AM EST reply actions
Chass'd.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
by Cecilio's Guante on Feb 13, 2011 10:09 AM EST reply actions
Here's a fun stat
King Felix didn’t win a single game in May, despite allowing 2 runs or less in half of those starts.
"I also have to say that I was pretty obviously wrong about C.J. Wilson. As recently as the All Star Break, I proclaimed the decision to move him the rotation a failure. That was epicfail of a, well, epic nature" - AJM
"My parents actually loved to pimp me too." - LSJ
by chrisR on Feb 13, 2011 10:43 AM EST reply actions
There was a time when a man who got ownershipped as hard as Chass just did here would be ritualistically beaten about the head and neck and then some villagers would cast his man-body into the ocean.
But under this new-age thinking Chass is probably gleefully patting himself on his grundle over how his latest batch of dumb-sluttery has generated so many page-views.
The 40 trumps all!
"WHY IS LIAM POPPINS STICKING. IT'S AN ABSURDLY BAD NICKNAME"
-LiamP(oppins)
by thedirkatron on Feb 13, 2011 12:32 PM EST reply actions
There has been an alarming decrease in ties over the last few years.
You should do an expose, Rob.
by PriceJD on Feb 13, 2011 2:08 PM EST reply actions
Chass is an anachronistic columnist
who’s angry about being outdated and refuses to change his thinking.
I am observing and judging you.
by birdman on Feb 13, 2011 5:26 PM EST reply actions
Stats
The W is really a meaningless stats, especially given that most SP’ers only go 6-7 IP. The only reason a SP’er was allowed to get a W after 5 IP was to take into account games that were shortened due to rain. If you go 6 IP and your team wins the game, you should be given 1/3 of a W (1/2 of 2/3)
As for the limitations of stats, I get irritated when someone like JD Drew takes a walk with men on 1st and 3rd while batting 7th and the team down 1 run in the 9th, which makes the #8 and # 9 hitters responsible for tying the game. He improved his OBP, but did not really help the team that much with a BB given the hitters behind him were weak hitters. I actually saw JD argue a called strike with the count 3-1 in a similar situation, hoping to take the walk rather than get one more chance for a hit . He ended up walking and the # 8 hitter tied the game, but still…….
by pft on Feb 13, 2011 11:16 PM EST reply actions
In the case where you have a very good hitter in the position to tie the game in the ninth inning, with two mediocre or worse batters behind him, that batter is almost never going to get a pitch to hit and probably IBB’ed.
Criticizing that player for “taking” a walk, when no other option is very likely is utterly ridiculous.
The fractional win idea is basically just a ‘lite’ version of WAR, so why not just use WAR?
by erosen on Feb 14, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
Murray Chass need not be taken seriously
He dislikes anything invented after 1910
by Connelly on Feb 14, 2011 12:14 AM EST reply actions
What DanDotLewis said
It’s worth the experiment; why not get everybody to ignore Chass and see if he’ll go away?
by CSFreeman on Feb 14, 2011 12:05 PM EST reply actions
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