Beginning a week-long series about 2010's worst teams, Rob Neyer says that things could hardly get worse for the Seattle Mariners in 2011.
Feb 14, 2011 - The gold standard for losing is 100 losses. We enjoy round numbers, and 100 might be the roundest.
But I want to write about terrible teams this week, and only two teams managed to lose 100 (more, actually) games last season: Seattle and Arizona. So after writing about the Mariners today and the Pirates tomorrow, I’ll look at the three other teams that lost at least 95 games in 2010.
The Mariners’ problem last season? An offense that was historically inept. Here’s Geoff Baker with some of the grisly details, and what management’s done (or hasn’t done about it) ...
So judging a rebuilding Mariners squad that sees pitchers and catchers report for spring-training physicals Sunday will have to involve something more sophisticated. And there will be no better place to start than with an offense that scored only 513 runs last season, the lowest total by any club in the designated-hitter era.
"We didn't have a lot of flexibility going in," Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik recently said, in reference to the team's payroll limit of about $93.5 million. "And we did some things in some areas where I thought we had some need."
The offense is where the team needed it most.
--snip—
On the systematic front, the Mariners appear to be banking on the theory that a lot of what happened to their offense in 2010 was a result of random bad luck. Seattle made few impact changes on offense this past winter, swapping out Russell Branyan for a more injury-free Jack Cust, while adding Miguel Olivo at catcher.
Other than that, little has changed offensively from the 2010 blueprint that relied on on-base oriented hitters with few proven power guys. The Mariners will hope to generate some added power from first baseman Justin Smoak, left fielder Michael Saunders and center fielder Franklin Gutierrez. But if any two of those bats continue to disappoint, the team risks struggling to push runners around the bases.
Not including pitchers, 25 Seattle Mariners batted in 2010.
Ichiro Suzuki played in 162 games, and posted a 113 OPS+, slightly lower than his career mark (117).
Russell Branyan played in 57 games and posted a 123 OPS+.
Mike Sweeney played in 30 games and posted a 123 OPS+.
The Mariners’ other 22 hitters failed to post an average (100) OPS+ or better.
That actually understates the disaster. Justin Smoak (93 OPS+ in 30 games) and Guillermo Quiroz (98 in two games) were the only other Mariners to reach even 90.
The Mariners entered 2010 with a lousy offense. No question about that. The 2009 squad finished last in the American in scoring, and their big moves after that season were the additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley. Figgins was a bust, Bradley worse. They brought back Ken Griffey, but not Russell Branyan. Of course, it’s not so terribly strange that Figgins and Bradley didn’t hit. What’s strange is that essentially nobody else did, either.
Is there reason for hope? Absolutely. Left fielder Michael Saunders and first baseman Justin Smoak, both of whom have been terrible disappointments, are probably going to show some of the talent that made them top prospects. Newcomer Jack Cust and malcontent Milton Bradley should give the M’s decent production from the DH slot.
Elsewhere – and I really can’t stress this strongly enough – most of the Mariners’ hitters will hit better in 2011 than 2010 simply because 1) they’re very unlikely to hit exactly the same, and 2) it would be very difficult for them to hit worse.
Does all this mean the Mariners aren’t going to lose 101 games again? Yeah, it probably does.
Does it mean the Mariners will shock the world with a respectable season? Not necessarily.
The M’s actually sported the run differential of a 103-loss team last season, so the hill they must climb is even steeper than it might seem. As great as Felix Hernandez is, he probably won’t match last season’s 2.27 ERA. Cliff Lee pitched brilliantly in his 13 starts with the M’s, and those starts are gone.
Essentially, the Mariners’ route to respectability in 2011 includes not just average luck, but good luck. Along with a strong comeback season from Erik Bedard. And if Grade A prospect Dustin Ackley makes the Opening Day roster and avoids the typical rookie struggles, the M’s might at least be interesting.
21 comments
Comments
Seattle and Pittsburgh!
by GJS on Feb 14, 2011 12:36 PM EST reply actions
But yeah, it was ugly
And I totally agree that they almost can’t help but be better, just because they were so bad last year.
by GJS on Feb 14, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Come on Rob....
The D-Backs don’t need to have their 2010 awfulness boosted by 3 games.
Founder of the Coalition to Light Vince Carter On Fire (CTLVCOF)
RIP Seasons of Discontent
by Scott Howard on Feb 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST reply actions
Run differential is deceptive.
There were often times late in the season where the Mariners just tossed out junk relievers to soak up innings (since it’s not like the team was scoring runs anyway). Jack Moore put it best in his title article for Fangraphs: The Forgotten Horrible Bullpen
Matthew, meanwhile, highlights the sizable nosedive using pRAA at Lookout Landing: Graph: Mariners Relief Pitcher pRAA Over 2010
Although generalities can be made about the team as it stands today, I think there’s too much noise in the 2010 Mariner season to use as a baseline for anything though I’m probably in the minority on that. The 2011 season will tell us where the team is really at.
by ThundaPC on Feb 14, 2011 1:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree
I’d argue that it’s much more helpful to look at aggregate WAR or something like BP’s second- and third-order records than just run differential. You’re still only looking at a ~65-70 win team, but that’s probably more reflective of the team’s performance and a baseline to compare to this year.
by GJS on Feb 14, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Lost season but not really
This season is almost as pure of a development year as you can get. The M’s are letting the kids play and didn’t add many impact players. But the hope is that the mariners aren’t making this into a habbit – but rather taking the time to develop a farm system along with teh major league team so that these losing ways go away for good. It’s a painful systematic change – but at least with Saunders, Smoak, Ackley, Pineda, Moore and a handful of young relief pitchers there are some good things to watch this season.
Figgins better at least have a great first half so if we need to trade him he has some value.
by BennyGStein on Feb 14, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions
Dead cat bounce
My swag at teams that will have a worse record than the Mariners this year are – Royals, Indians, Pirates, Diamondbacks and perhaps Washington.
by Xeifrank on Feb 14, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions
I'd add Baltimore too,
Not because I think the M’s will be the better team, but because I think the AL East will be really, really good, and I think Baltimore is probably the worst of them at this point.
by quacker27 on Feb 14, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
I tend to disagree
Baltimore had the 4th best record in all of baseball from August 1st on, with a stellar 33-24 record 2 games better than Tampa Bay the next closest competitor from the AL East. Not exactly a huge sample size, but not extactly a small one either, especially when you give more weight to the more recent games.
On top of that the Orioles have put together a pretty good offensive team. Their defense is above average and it is not like their biggest weakness, starting pitching is that worse than some of the other teams in the AL East.
That being said, I think the Orioles will be one of the pleasant surprises in baseball in 2011. It is true that they play in the toughest division, but I still think they win more games than the Mariners.
Only time will tell. :) But that is why I did not list them.
by Xeifrank on Feb 14, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
winning more games than the Mariners?
That’s the standard you’re going to tout as a pleasant surprise?
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Feb 15, 2011 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Nope, I didn't say that
You are marrying two seperate statements I made together. The previous commentor said he would put the Mariners ahead of the Orioles, and I said I didn’t believe that would be the case. I never said what my “pleasant surprise” was. If I had to be nailed down on what that would be, I’d say playing .500 ball or very close to it.
by Xeifrank on Feb 17, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Even if the Mariners aren't interesting this season
they have Jeff Sullivan to make them seem interesting.
"It's our money," owner Arte Moreno said.
by 44FAN on Feb 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
Hmmm...Jeff for the Mariners,
Pos for the Royals…do fanbases have to choose between success and great writers?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Feb 14, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Misery makes better writing
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 14, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
Provided it doesn't include vampires in its narrative.
by ThomasG on Feb 14, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Even when we were good (relatively. read: 2009)
we had the misery of our DH platoon of hugs and icon to stay interested in. Plus, Sean White! Rob Johnson!
by awilson11 on Feb 14, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
And how could I forget
Yuni!
by awilson11 on Feb 14, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
My opus, "Why I Want To Make Out With Cody Ross"
Is probably the best thing I’ve ever written, but I wrote it for my MySpace page, not my site.
by Grant Brisbee on Feb 14, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
The Giants have Grant, which disproves your theory somewhat
(Although only as of 2010.)
by Tarrsk on Feb 14, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
I hope they lose 100
After all, the Angels have to finish ahead of somebody
by Athirson on Feb 14, 2011 2:37 PM EST reply actions
Do they have to though?
by BennyGStein on Feb 14, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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