Is Albert Pujols Worth $300 Million?

I think the setup to the dice roll hypothetical is missing the ultimatum (death)

You could argue that the tea

Whoops, sorry-

You could argue that the team is already accustomed to paying him around $15M per year, so they are really only adding liek $15M, not $30M— granted, it is double the money for presumably declining talent.

Where is this projection coming from? How much data do we have to work off of when trying to project forward a player of Pujols’ caliber? There are probably no more than a dozen players in history that we could reasonably compare to Pujols at this age. Looking down the list of his comparables at his current age on BR and totaling their WAR from age 31 on here’s what we get:

Jimmie Foxx – 15.8
Frank Robinson – 37.7
Ken Griffey – 3.6
Lou Gehrig – 42.2 (In 6 years)
Hank Aaron – 58.4
Mickey Mantle – 22.4
Mel Ott – 27.6
Juan Gonzalez – 4.1 (I honestly have no idea where this comp comes from)
Eddie Mathews – 23.8
Manny Ramirez – 32.3

Now obviously these are not all perfect comparisons. Some of them had their production start to dip a little before their age 31 season, some of them weren’t ever at the astronomical production rates that Pujols had to this point. I think it is worth noting that Pujols’ numbers were a little off last year, Ks up, BBs down, etc. He really can’t keep doing this forever. Of the players on this list one out-produced the 48 WAR cited, another couple got close, but the one that really stands out to me is Griffey. I don’t think it’s talked about enough just how DISASTROUS that contract was. Players decline in their 30s. Players with Pujols’ skillset can decline very rapidly. Do you hand him the bank and hope that he’s Hank Aaron? Everyone keeps comparing this to A-Rod’s current contract, but the elephant in the room is that A-Rod’s contract is AWFUL and is going to be an albatross within 4-5 years. The last 5 years of that contract are going to be a joke.

I could see the two parties settling for a deal that will give Pujols the biggest contract but still not cripple the team. Say, $20M/yr for years 1-5, $25M/yr for 6-10, and $5M/yr for his first 25 retirement years (plus a partial ownership clause, if CBA allowed) to make an official $300/10 deal.

Rob,

Does your new SBN contract require you to use this useless, obnoxious phrase at least 3 times a day?

First, insofar as I can tell, your “jump” is all of three stars. The “jump” is typically going from an intro page to a “read more” link to a following page. Or it’s even used to note more content after an in-article advertisement interruption.

Second, it’s a waste of everyone’s time (yours and ours) to write about what’s coming up… just get to what it is so we can read it.

Please, stop using this over-used, misunderstood phrase and just give us our desired baseball musings!

Rob- I know they are just rumors, but what happens if you run that age progression as though he is 2 years older than his stated age? It seems like theres a few teams foaming at the mouth to sign Albert for the full amount, but the team that knows him best is more concerned. Now, maybe its a market thing, but I wonder if the rumored “real” age is playing a role too.

I hardly know where to start but here goes:
1. Fangraphs projects him to be worth $28.6M per year over the next 10 including inflation, yet you use this as a basis to pay him $30M a year? That’s a pretty big difference $1.4M per year that you’re glossing over.
2. Your analysis didn’t take into account the probability of severe or career-ending injury. How many players have played from age 31 to 41 without missing most or all of a season? Heck how many players are productive everyday at age 41? (the number was 0 last year). Its not like the Cardinals get that money back. Pujols has always been a gamer and plays through aches but there have been enough semi-serious aches that Cardinal fans are well aware that the clock is ticking on a big injury.
3. What’s Albert’s real age? There have been whispers about it from day one and the more I read the more I believe it. If he were seeking a five year deal that would be one thing but when he’s insistent on a career-finishing deal that’s another. Any rational bidder would add two years to his listed age.
4. Albert wasn’t even worth $30M last year according to fangraphs! His page lists his “value” at $29.3! How in the world could you project him to slightly improve and carry that improvement through 10 years.

My theory is that the Cardinals became aware that Pujols was going to ask for something outrageous a few years ago when they first brought up an extension and have been hedging against that with the Holliday and Berkman signings.

Won’t the pending labor renegotiation at the end of this year affect teams’ willingness to commit $300M to a single player? Even with the strong union, I think if I were a GM I’d have to think twice about how the rules might change before I make such a deal.

and it won’t matter that he’ll underperform at the end of his contract. Read Posnanski’s article; Pujols has already over-performed by $200M. They will get it done, and I’m not just an optimistic Cardinals’ fan. I suspect the contract will be crippling at the end.

But St. Louis has to do it…so does Albert.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/02/pujols-and-cardinals.html

I tend not to believe the hype about the Brewers but they will be better this year than last, the Cubs have quietly done a lot to improve their team adding Pena, Garza, and Wood. The Reds are young deep and talented. The Cardinals are fairly top heavy with a lot riding on basically four players (Pujols, Holliday, Wainright and Carpenter). What if they are ten games out? Does it make sense to give all of your resources to Pujols if you aren’t even competitive with him on the roster. Instead they could trade Pujols and Carpenter to get young cheap talent back and use the money to get more depth and talent around Wainright and Holliday.