Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
Baseball Prospectus has released their first Postseason Odds report for 2011, and even with the caveats it's always compelling stuff. One obvious caveat: It's early, and the rosters are going to look quite a bit different in August than April. Shoot, at this point in the process we don't know precisely who's going to be on the rosters in April. Then again, it's mostly the every-day players and regular starters who make the real differences, and we do know the great majority of them.
After the jump, the eight projected playoff teams ...
Here you go:
AL East: Red Sox (average 93 wins)
AL Central: Twins (86 wins)
AL West: Rangers (86 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Rays (85 wins)
NL East: Phillies (87 wins)
NL Central: Brewers (86 wins)
NL West: Rockies (87 wins)
Best 2nd place in division: Dodgers (85 wins)
Gee, that doesn't seem like much fun, does it? Only one team with more than 87 wins? Granted, you might enjoy the absence of the Yankees from that run; PECOTA's got them finishing 83-79.
These things are nice little February diversions and PECOTA's made some great calls before -- most famously, predicting a nice season for Tampa Bay in 2008 -- but at this point there are just too many roster decisions that haven't been made, injuries that haven't befallen, etc. And if the Yankees really win fewer than 85 games this season, I'll eat these electrons.
(Big tip o' the cap to BTF's Newsstand for this one.)
Update: I've been informed by someone at Baseball Prospectus that the above projections were erroneously posted, and are not accurate. It's still fun to think about the Yankees winning 83 games!
16 comments
Comments
Rob, love the new place for your writing. It seems to be affording you the freedom to more than the old location.
With regard to the Rays and Yankees, I don’t see how the Rays rate as highly. Yes, their starting rotation is better, but their re-made bullpen is far inferior, their offense isn’t nearly as good, and they have holes behind the plate and in the outfield. They’re also relying on two aging players in Ramirez and Damon, both of whom they need to be good if they’re going to score enough runs.
None of those new draft picks are going to help this summer.
by Bruce Markusen on Feb 15, 2011 5:40 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Overly regressed win totals?
If so, not by much. Phillies should be in the low 90s and would be an obvious Vegas “over” bet. I might disagree with a few of the selections (Brewers, Dodgers… lack of Giants, Cards/Reds, Yankees).
by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2011 5:41 PM EST reply actions
Would be Amazin'
If the Yanks only win 83, it’ll be their worst season since 1992 (by winning percentage) and least amount of wins since ’95’s strike shortened season. That would make for a lot of fun reading in the NY papers this summer & coming offseason.
by Soydevon on Feb 15, 2011 6:18 PM EST reply actions
"After the jump"
I’m with the commenter from another post, this phrase is annoying.
by GBSimons on Feb 15, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions
I disagree, but I don't know if I'm in the majority.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
by ArunisArun on Feb 15, 2011 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
I love it...
mostly because others are complaining about it. I didn’t even notice it before. Please, use it in every post.
by sportsczar on Feb 16, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
What?
The Brewer’s are being seriously over rated. Carlos Gonzalez is the only good defensive player on the entire roster. Yuniesky Betencourt and Carlos Gonzalez will battle to see who can be the worst offensive player in the NL and on top of it we’re assuming that Zach Greinke will be his 2009 self, one season does not make you an ace.
As for the Yanks winning 83 games. That’s insane. Last season they led the league in runs scored while Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira had their worst seasons since they were rookies. This team could get only mediocre seasons from everyone on the offensive side and still score 850 runs. In order for that team to finish around .500 they’d have to give up 800 plus runs. Only the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Royals were that bad a year ago. With CC Sabathia as the anchor of that rotation and there bullpen as good as it is the other four starters would have to have ERA’s close to six to make that happen. Even AJ and Javy weren’t that bad a year ago.
by Pflood83 on Feb 15, 2011 6:50 PM EST reply actions
It sounds like the Brewskies will be atrocious this season.
Or is it the the Rockwers?
by PriceJD on Feb 15, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops
Meant Carlos Gomez. The Brewers really would be the favorite if they had Carlos Gonzalez.
by Pflood83 on Feb 15, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Oh and I also like the "After the jump"
by Pflood83 on Feb 15, 2011 6:51 PM EST reply actions
Dodgers for Wild Card?
Braves are the second-best team in the NL, no way LA beats them. I know these aren’t accurate predictions, but still.
by duxfan29 on Feb 15, 2011 10:45 PM EST reply actions
No, they're back in
The real BP projections have the Sox in first with 92 win, the Yanks one game back with 91, and the Rays seven more back at 84.
by LordD99 on Feb 16, 2011 2:51 AM EST reply actions
BP
Looks like everyone has his opinion in what the true BP projections are!
by CrisCris on Feb 16, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
NL Central
I think they are right on about the Brewers. The Cards are going to be in disarray over the Pujols thing all season. Their pitching and defense also began showing some cracks at the end of last year. The Reds improved and could contend if their pitching remains healthy. The Cubs are still a year or two and some bad salaries from contending. and the Pirates are the Pirates. The Brewers pitching should be real good with Grienke and Gallardo at the front. Their offense with Braun and Fielder in the middle should be able to score enough runs to make up for their poor defense.
AQBan
by AQBan on Feb 16, 2011 9:05 AM EST reply actions
You mean the Reds...
who won the division last year, and who didn’t lose anyone, and whose young pitchers have another season under their belts? Those Reds, “could contend?”
I’m a Cardinals fan, but I think the division is the Reds to lose. I like the Brewers’ pitching, but that defense isn’t great, Fielder is likely to stop producing at any moment, and Hart and Weeks had career seasons last year. All that being said, BP knows more than I do, and if everybody on the Crew hits, and those pitchers deliver, it could be a two-horse race…with the Cardinals watching from the outside.
by sportsczar on Feb 16, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not trying to bash the Brewers but the Reds are really good...
Everyone keeps saying how good the Brewers are going to be because they’ve added two good pitchers with their already GREAT offense. But the Reds had the better offense a year ago, and they have a pretty impressive rotation themselves. Not to mention a full year of Chapman in the pen. On top of that the Cardinals have the best one two combo in the middle of the order and at the top of the rotation, plus Tony LaRussa pushing the buttons. Add to that the Brewers have zero flexibility, no more top prospects to bring up or trade and no more cash to take on other teams salary to improve the team, not a good combo.
by Pflood83 on Feb 16, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
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