The Baltimore Orioles lost 96 games last season, but finished strong under new manager Buck Showalter. Will they take another step forward this season?
Feb 17, 2011 - There are a lot of reasons to like the Baltimore Orioles, who lost 96 games in 2009.
One, they finished exceptionally strong. When Buck Showalter took over as manager in late July, the Orioles were sitting on a nifty 32-73 record. Granted, they probably would have played better from that point if I’d been given the managerial reins, but could anyone have guessed the O’s would actually go 34-23 (.596) the rest of the way? That they would outplay the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Rays over that stretch?
There’s no reason to think the Orioles will win 60 percent of their games in 2011. Might they win 50 percent, though, for the first time since 1997? That would be a pretty hefty jump, considering that even with that great stretch run, the O’s finished last season with only 66 wins. Are the Orioles really 16 wins better – or 19, if you prefer run differential over wins and losses for these things – than they were just one year ago?
On the scoring side, the hope lies in six places:
In all six cases, the Orioles might reasonably expect significant upgrades. Well, maybe not in center field; the jury’s still out on Adam Jones’ true ability. But everywhere else. And at the other spots, the Orioles should hold steady. At catcher, Matt Wieters shouldn’t be worse. Nick Markakis is solid in right field. And Vladimir Guerrero should do reasonably well as Luke Scott’s replacement in the DH slot.
On the pitching side … well, that’s that “secret” to Buck Showalter’s miracle work last season. It was actually sort of phenomenal. Here are the Orioles’ five presumed starters and their ERAs last season through July, and afterward (Showalter took over on the 29th of July) …
Jeremy Guthrie – 4.23 / 3.14
Brian Matusz – 5.46 / 4.06
Brad Bergesen – 6.63 / 2.88
Jake Arrieta – 5.47 / 3.78
Chris Tillman – 11.52 / 4.08
Some of those numbers are derived from relatively meaningless numbers of innings, but the point holds. Before August, these five starters combined for a 5.70 ERA in 418 innings. Afterward, they posted a 3.47 ERA in 291 innings. Yeah, most of that’s probably just luck, statistical noise, etc. But some of it’s probably real talent and maybe a little of it’s Showalter, right?
I’m still not wild about the signings of Derrek Lee and Vladimir Guerrero. I’m not a big fan of spending $15.5 million just to reach (at best) 82 or 83 wins. Still, the Orioles are primed for a big improvement in 2011.
14 comments
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Baltimore Orioles, who lost 96 games in 2010* (not 2009)
they lost 98 in 2009
by jerepicc on Feb 17, 2011 10:10 AM EST reply actions
I’m a bit surprised that Wieters isn’t counted as a potential player to improve — he’s almost as hyped a prospect as Adam Jones, and coming off a disappointing season. I’m not sure he’ll be anything too special, but he could definitely see his stock rise this season.
by Rujasu on Feb 17, 2011 10:20 AM EST reply actions
Almost as hyped?
Were there Adam Jones Facts? ;-)
Wieters is my pick for breakout player in ‘11. Too much talent for the middling production he’s put up in the bigs thus far.
From the Land of Pleasant Living...
by OEutaw on Feb 17, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Kansas City led division into Memorial Day
I remember about eight years ago when the Royals had the best record in March and then continued to play well into Memorial Day, but reality took hold.
Just about every .900 OPS hitter will have a .700 OPS month and an 1.100 OPS month.
If the Orioles were in the A.L. West they would have a shot at .500, but in the East they are looking at last place again unless Toronto is worse than expected. Tampa’s pitching is still top level. Tillman is the only pitching talent in Baltimore that could make a new impact and it’s not likely that he turns into Roy Halladay.
Wieters could also bust out.
The Orioles have a lot of work to do at the farm level and they’ll have to make a big trade for a true ace because they won’t pay one on the free agent market, their management just said so publicly.
by Free_AEC on Feb 17, 2011 10:42 AM EST reply actions
I disagree
I think the Orioles could realistically make a run at third. If Tampa’s bullpen is atrocious, Damon and Ramirez look really old, and the law of averages finally catches up with the Rays and they have a serious injury problem or failure to perform from a young starting pitcher, they could wind up not being a very good team (on the flip side Maddon might show his genius getting the most out of his bullpen, Ramirez and Damon might defy father time just to spite their former team, and they could continue to seamlessly develop young talented starting pitchers and win the division). But I think the Blue Jays are not going to be very good. Yes Brett Lawrie is a great young prospect but he won’t help the team in 2011 like Marcum would have. And although Vernon Wells being gone helps the team financially going forward it also won’t help the win total. Now the point stands that finishing third in the division is not a desirable goal to spend your money on. But the Yankees pitching staff will never look more vulnerable on paper to start a season and there is always the chance that somebody suffers a key injury. So maybe if their pitching improvement wasn’t just statistical noise they could make a run at the playoffs.
by Pflood83 on Feb 17, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions
Just to clarify a fact from the article— Showalter was hired on July 29, but didn’t manage his first game until August 3.
by PaulFolk on Feb 17, 2011 12:34 PM EST reply actions
2011 Orioles = 2008 Rays
in terms of having a crappy season the year before and being completely underrated the next. The Orioles won’t win 31 more games this year than last, like the Rays did, but they will be a very solid team in a very tough division. I think they can crack .500 this year.
by Xeifrank on Feb 17, 2011 12:34 PM EST reply actions
Nice write up Rob
A big improvement from the O’s is indeed in the works. I see 78 wins with 82-83 being the ceiling which could land the O’s 4th place (I don’t see the Yanks or Rays dropping down to the low 80s range). You didn’t address the bullpen though. If Koji can remain healthy, I see a very good pen with Gregg and Berken setting up and Williams as the LOOGY.
Folksy literate type.
by birdman on Feb 17, 2011 12:40 PM EST reply actions
One note:
Those aren’t the presumed 5 starters. The Orioles signed Justin Duchscherer and he’ll almost surely be in the rotation. The 5th spot will probably come down to a Spring Training battle between Arrieta and Tillman.
by ahoque24 on Feb 17, 2011 4:11 PM EST reply actions
Almost Surely?
If healthy, but that’s a big if, he might not pitch at all.
by Pflood83 on Feb 17, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions
This Orioles fan
thinks it’s a 75 wins or bust year.
"Tragedy is what happens to me. Comedy is what happens to you." -Mel Brooks
by jobe on Feb 18, 2011 1:59 AM EST reply actions
Impressed
I didn’t realize how much the Os position players improved this offseason. They could indeed be a much better team than last year. Probably still a high 80s, low 90s loss team, but definitely improved. Pitching certainly is a wild card, but if they pitch anywhere near their numbers from the last part of the season this should be a very decent club.
by daileysc on Feb 18, 2011 12:37 PM EST reply actions
I like some of the moves they made. They might still be destined for a 4th or 5th place finish, but a key thing to note is that they are at least showing their fanbase they are trying to field a competent baseball team. With the additions of Vlad, Mark Reynolds (hes going to love that park), J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, and a healthy Brian Roberts, the Orioles have quietly done a solid job of reshaping their team this offseason. Sure, they may not all be sexy names, but if you look at the kind of production the Orioles received from most of those positions last year: -1.1 fWAR from 1B, +1 fWAR from 2B, -0.7 fWAR from SS, 0 fWAR from 3B, you can see they should be solid upgrades and not a total embarrassment to the more-deserving folks of Baltimore.
by nmigliore on Feb 21, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions
NEW RULE:
When talking about a team in a sport without a SALARY CAP…PLEASE stop using the amount of players’ contract to judge their talent or outlook for the season…. THANKS.
by baltimorebullets80 on Feb 21, 2011 4:06 PM EST reply actions
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