Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
So what does one big season get you?
If you're Jose Bautista, apparently it gets you $65 million, as that's reportedly the figure in Bautista's new five-year contract.
Is he worth it, though? More after the jump ...
Roughly speaking? Yeah, he's worth it. As Dave Cameron writes, Bautista doesn't have to be great (again) to merit that kind of money. He just has to be pretty good. Cameron's only problem with the deal -- and it's my problem, too -- is that Bautista's not eligible for free agency until after this season. The Blue Jays could have watched him play this season, then tried to lock him up next winter after seeing just how fluky those 54 home runs really were.
Of course, it's usually a lot easier to lock up a player when you've already got him locked up. And maybe we should assume the Blue Jays know more about Bautista than we do. There is some risk here, though.
7 comments
Comments
That thing we don’t know that the Jays do? That someone must’ve showed up in the best-best-best-best-best shape of his life.
by David Connor on Feb 17, 2011 3:28 AM EST reply actions
His cost will increase
It’s a tough one. If the Jays wait until the end of 2011, and he hits, let’s say, 35 HRs as opposed to 54, he’ll still validate that he’s now a legit MLB power threat. He’ll cost more than $65 million over five years. And if he hits 40+, his salary will really skyrocket.
Basically, the Jays have decided he’s for real, so they locked him up now. Normally I’d say that’s an excellent move, yet here there is a higher risk factor, if Bautista regresses back to pre-2010 levels.
by LordD99 on Feb 17, 2011 3:59 AM EST reply actions
Not buying it
Do the names Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez mean anything. Anderson hit 50 HRs in 1996. His SLG that season was .637. In his 15-year career his OPS was only .787. He only hit over 20 HRs in two other seasons.
Luis Gonzalez hit 57 HRs in 2001. In his 19-year career he hit over 20 hrs in 6 other seasons, one of which he hit 31.
I know that there is speculation that these 50 HR seasons for both of these players were chemically enhanced but there is no evidence of it. Also, there have been other fluke seasons like this throughout baseball history. The one that comes to mind first is the 1961 season of Roger Maris. He hit 61 HRs that year which was bracketed by seasons of 33 and 39 HRs. He played for seven more seasons after 1961 hitting 33 in 1962 and 23 in 1963 then a grand total of ….. 61 over the final 5 seasons of his career.
AQBan
by AQBan on Feb 17, 2011 9:27 AM EST reply actions
I don't think Gonzalez's homer's were chemically achieved
That year he made an adjustment to his swing to add power (the wierd one foot in front of the other stance), this helped him have the break out in 2001. But it also made for new holes in his swing which once pitchers adjusted he regressed. Andruw Jones similarly did this (his stance kept getting wider and wider his power went up his avg. went down until he wasn’t making contact enough to post high HR totals).
I don’t know that much about Bautista but he has always been a guy who had raw power. He just couldn’t make contact, draw walks enough to be a starter. If I were the Blue Jays I’d be more concerned about his BA, which wasn’t high last year and his walk totals, which might have been inflated by his power surge rather than a new found eye for the strike zone.
Like Rob said they aren’t paying him to hit 54 HR’s but if when his power regresses the walks go with it, he might now be worth close to the 65 million.
by Pflood83 on Feb 17, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
What they are not paying for....
As Rob has already stated, the Jays are NOT paying for another 54 home run explosion. Considering his walk rate and the fact that he suffered from an extremely low BABIP last season, Bautista could produce a lot of value even with a large drop in home runs by maintaining the walk rate and seeing a return to his career BABIP numbers. This is not Rob Deer we are talking about.
Also lost in the background noise seems to be the fact that had the Jays allowed Bautista to play out the year under an arbitration deal, there is no guarantee that they re-sign him regardless of the cost. Under that scenario Bautista is now auditioning his new talent level to 30 teams, not just Toronto.
by IamDeadHoratio on Feb 17, 2011 11:02 AM EST reply actions
Under that scenario… Bautista is now auditioning his new talent … (puts on glasses) … to thirty other teams
YEEEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH
by Pikachu on Feb 17, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
I have to give AA the benefit of the doubt, but...
Anthopoulos has spent pretty much all his time since taking the job showing he’s really smart, so I have no doubt he knows a hell of a lot more than I do. But if any of my idiot friends told me Jose Bautista will be a 2-win player in 2016 (or even 2014), I’d tell them they had no business ever speaking to me about baseball again.
Given that Bautista’s almost certainly going to be relegated to primarily DH duty well before the end of this contract (and that, even before that happens, he’ll be shifting up the spectrum to LF, which is about one Win in adjustment to WAR), I would probably be a lot more inclined to go year to year signing someone from the Thome/Guerrero set each winter than commit to a 30-year-old who’s been productive for exactly six months in his life.
by realitypolice on Feb 17, 2011 4:39 PM EST reply actions
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