SB Nation MLB Players Of The Decade
Albert Pujols was MLB's best first baseman throughout the last decade. Can he do that in this decade, too?
Feb 4, 2011 - Who's going be the No. 1 first baseman in the majors through 2019?
The four best first basemen in the major leagues in 2010 were Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez. Justin Morneau would have made it five, except he missed almost half the season with a concussion. What makes this project difficult is that none of those guys are old, and none are particularly young. We can happily ignore Aubrey Huff (33) and Paul Konerko (34), but those first five all played last season at Age 30 or younger. There was a time when I might ignore a 30-year-old in a discussion like this, and most of them probably should be ignored. Players like Albert Pujols, though, you don't ignore.
There are other candidates, of course. I'm sure that Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis have their partisans, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and obviously don't stack up with Pujols. Billy Butler's exceptionally young and will have some big seasons, but I suspect he'll be a DH during most of them. I like Ike Davis, but there doesn't seem to be much superstar potential there.
There are also some fine first-base prospects who figure to eventually make a splash, especially Eric Hosmer (Royals), Freddie Freeman (Braves), Brandon Belt (Giants), Yonder Alonso (Cincinnati) and Jonathan Singleton (Phillies). But Singleton, Alonso, and Belt are all blocked in the majors to varying degrees. Hosmer, perhaps the best prospect of the bunch, is still a year or two away. Which leaves Freeman, who's slated to take over at first base for Atlanta this season.
Freeman's got opportunity, ability, and youth - he turned 21 just last fall - on his side. My only reservations about Freeman are that he doesn't walk a lot, and his 124 Triple-A games last summer represent his only superlative play above Class A. Those aren't knocks, really; I'm just looking for chinks in his armor, because this is a tough competition. I don't see how he breaks into our top five today, but it won't be all that surprising if he's there in 2019 when we look backwards (and yes, between Freeman and Jason Heyward that's quite a duo the Braves should be featuring for the next half-decade).*
*By the way, I'm now getting all my information about prospects from John Sickels' latest, The Baseball Prospect Book 2011.Oh, and you can read a lot more from John about Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman here.
So let's go back to our original five, with the caveat that we're probably going to miss one of the kids ...
Here they are with Seasonal Ages in 2011, plus on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and Wins Above Replacement (via Baseball-Reference.com) over the last two seasons ...
In case you're curious, the other first basemen with at least 10 WAR over the last two seasons are Youkilis (10.7), Prince Fielder (10.2) and Teixeira (10.1). I've already dismissed Youkilis and Teixeira, and I have a hard time imagining Fielder aging real well.
If Morneau hadn't been hurt last season, he probably would be third or fourth on the WAR list. So we have to consider him. Except for the little matter of not knowing when he's going to play. Sure, the Twins are supposedly still optimistic that Morneau will be ready for Opening Day, but I think that actually means they're hopeful that he'll be ready. Which isn't all that encouraging. If Morneau was a little younger, or had spent the last three months getting his swings, we might consider him seriously. But he's not, and he hasn't, so we can't.
Let's look at the other four, starting with the youngest. Votto's one year younger than Cabrera, two years younger than Gonzalez, and four years younger than Pujols. Even so, he's 27 - already hitting his peak seasons. We probably can't expect better from Votto than we've seen, and in fact 2010 was his first great season. Will he have others? Probably. But Cabrera's already had three or four great seasons, Gonzalez two.
(Hey, I think we're getting somewhere!)
Meanwhile, Pujols ... well, Pujols has been great in every season. Literally every season. He's played in 10 seasons, and was great in all of them.
Pujols is so good, I think he's one of those rare players - like Willie Mays, like Barry Bonds, like Ted Williams - who will continue to dominate his competition well into his 30s. He might not be a great player at 38 and 39, but he'll have been great enough earlier that nobody can catch up to him.
This does assume, of course, that he's now actually 31. It's not completely unreasonable to believe that he's a year or two older - some people think more, actually - but based on the information we've got, I think we have to assume that Albert Pujols will be the game's top first baseman in this decade.
46 comments
Comments
There's always Brett Wallace who you could throw into the mix
I like the Rockets. The Rockets do not like me.
by Patrick Harrel on Feb 4, 2011 10:42 AM EST reply actions
He's probably still under that last category.
It’ll be interesting to see what, if anything the injury gods have in store for Pujols.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Feb 4, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
OBP and SLG not too promising
I see Wallace being more of a poor man’s Steve Garvey – doesn’t project to walk enough or hit with exceptional power.
by pacbellpilgrim on Feb 4, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols's age
Rob this is the second time in a few days I’ve seen you refer to Pujols as possibly being older than he is. Instead of just throwing it out there like that, is it possible you could put together an article on the subject? Is there any evidence, or is it just the same rumors that have always been around?
by Ryan King on Feb 4, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions
Barring injury, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pujols continues to dominate for 5 or 6 more years. I’m not sure whether Votto will fall back to the “good” rather than “great” category in the future. Votto’s BABIP is probably a bit lucky over the last couple of years, and he experienced what could be his peak season. But who knows?
Another factor is that you never know if an outstanding hitting outfielder (current or prospect) will be converted to 1st base and dominate the postion in the future. Perhaps even a guy like Montero could end up at 1st base.
by clack on Feb 4, 2011 10:59 AM EST reply actions
Votto's career BABIP is .353
When a guy has BABIP of .372, followed by .361, it kind of makes me think maybe there’s a little more than luck. It probably has more to do with the fact that he hits the snot out of the ball almost every time up. Solid contact, uses the whole field. I think there’s a little more to his high BABIP these last couple of years than having a full 2 years of “good luck”.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Feb 4, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
In addition to getting good wood on the ball,
he is also relatively quick, which also makes its mark on BABIP.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 4, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not saying that Votto can’t sustain a relatively high BABIP, but it’s virtually impossible to sustain a .372 BABIP over the long term. Over the last five years, Ichiro Suzuki has the highest BABIP in the majors at .354, followed by Derek Jeter at .353. Suzuki is unique hitter, who has an unusually good ability to get infield hits.
by clack on Feb 5, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure it's been discussed plenty
But does anyone think moving to the AL could have some detriment on Adrian Gonzalez? Although he was hitting in PETCO, so who knows, he’ll be interesting to watch this year.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Feb 4, 2011 11:01 AM EST reply actions
Moving to the AL could be a detriment, yes.
But the home splits should more than make up for whatever shortcomings he suffers in terms of a step up in competition. Fenway is a foul pole to foul pole lefty slugger’s dream.
Stranded In Paradise
by misterjonez on Feb 4, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Cardinals Fan* - Disclaimer* - Kinda*
Isn’t Cabrera the only likely real threat to Pujols’ dominance, unless one of the kids truly becomes a superstar? All the talk about Votto, or Gonzalez in Fenway (great hitters, no doubt), but Cabrera has already been great for seven years (7!), and he is only a year older than Votto and is a year younger than Gonzalez.
I am giving Albert 5-7 more years of stellar production; Cabrera is, imho, the only guy on the list possibly likely to outlast him in the 201Xs (again, unless a kid does it). Does Cabrera’s seeming non-chalance hurt him in this discussion?
by sportsczar on Feb 4, 2011 11:28 AM EST reply actions
I guess Cabrera is 2nd in the voting, currently.
Maybe he’s just a boring, steady pick. I’ll shutup now.
by sportsczar on Feb 4, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Agree
Though I guess this should get a “Tigers Fan” disclaimer, I have to agree that Cabrera has a shot to outdo Pujols this decade. And – take this for what its worth – Cabrera “changed” his attitude prior to last season, culminating in his best year as a Tiger. Apparently he is off the boozes now and committed to being a clubhouse leader going forward. If attitude is worth anything in this discussion, Cabrera seems to have figured things out.
by Chester Lemon on Feb 4, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
And really, Votto is only five months younger than Cabrera.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 4, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Morneau
Morneau will likely be a DH in 3 years with Migual Sano pulling a Cabrera/Pujols and switching to first base from third when he gets out of the minors.
by ThatGuy22 on Feb 4, 2011 11:41 AM EST reply actions
Adrian Gonzalez
Count me in the group that thinks he will go insane now that he’s out of Petco. Additionally, in his five MLB seasons he’s never been injured and, moving to the AL, will have the advantage to DH as he ages – an opportunity Pujols won’t have.
It's true, I'm a rageaholic. I just can't live without rageahol!
by Shinons on Feb 4, 2011 11:55 AM EST reply actions
Yeah...
I feel like people are seriously underrating him. Maybe it’s his lack of exposure through the national media until now. The guy’s a monster (if a bit old for this discussion). But it’s more than a little surprising there’s nearly double the votes for “random youngster” than his chances. Lunacy!
by flymrfreakjar on Feb 6, 2011 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
Kids
My guess is that one of the prospects will take over. Maybe I should have just manned up and picked one of them. But the last time I did this, I picked a bunch of young guys and got burned. So now I’m skittish.
by Rob Neyer on Feb 4, 2011 12:17 PM EST reply actions
Understandable, considering it's basically a crapshoot
So it’s nice that you gave us the option of picking all of them as a poll answer. I’m surprised that “the field” is doing so badly in the voting.
Roto Hardball | @CajoleJuice
by CajoleJuice on Feb 4, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
The field
Nothing against the field – the other options are just too enticing – some great hitters to choose from.
by pacbellpilgrim on Feb 4, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I'm spoiled by how many great young 1B have arrived in the past 5 years or so
I just figure one guy will emerge out of the current crop of prospects that will be head and shoulders above the rest and compete with the likes of Pujols and Votto, while being great for a full 8 seasons of the 9.
If I were to pick from the established stars, I’d be tempted to go with Votto, but Cabrera is only 5 months older and has been Pujols-lite for 6 full years. And I’m with Rob with regards to Pujols’ age. Funny how he has hinted at suspicion his first two days away from the WWL. He truly has become “one of us”.
Roto Hardball | @CajoleJuice
by CajoleJuice on Feb 4, 2011 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully
that man is Eric Hosmer.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 4, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
the field
I’m taking the field too. Hopefully Justin Smoak.
by schneidler on Feb 7, 2011 3:45 AM EST up reply actions
or...
Freddie Freeman
by Bizarros on Feb 7, 2011 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
He's a longshot
But I feel Prince will easily outperform Morneau over 10 years.
by hcoguy on Feb 4, 2011 12:30 PM EST reply actions
Entirely possible.
But I see DH in Prince’s future. His near-term future.
He’s not atrocious as a 1B defender, but bodies like his don’t tend to age well. There are exceptions, of course, but if you’re betting the house, put it down on him ending up spending ~half of the time as a DH.
Stranded In Paradise
by misterjonez on Feb 4, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Agree about Prince
Prince is 26 years old, has missed a grand total of 5 days due to injury in his career, and is a better player than most of those mentioned, I’ll take Prince over morneau, Teix, heck pretty much everyone except Pujols, Cabrera and Gonzalez over the next 10 years. He’s a DH in the future, but I don’t think that future is prior to 2015. I don’t really see his body type being that much worse than Cabrera’s or Pujol’s, he’s big frame and big body.
by cardsfanboy on Feb 6, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Daric Barton
by elSAVinator on Feb 4, 2011 12:53 PM EST reply actions
Humor
It’s always a good thing.
by LordD99 on Feb 5, 2011 2:22 AM EST up reply actions
Barton
posted a 4.9 fWAR at age 24 while only hitting 10 HR. I think it’s a ridiculous thought as well, but just sayin’.
by Daniel Greer on Feb 6, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
Votto
Because of his strike zone judgment and contact hitting, he will be valuable even after his power starts to fade. I believe that Votto’s past 2 years + his next 8 years will stack up nicely against any first baseman who has a better next ten years.
by KC Viking on Feb 4, 2011 1:16 PM EST reply actions
What contact hitting?
Votto strikes out 18.6% of the time, over 19.4% of the time the last two seasons(you know his good seasons). In comparison Pujols 9.5%, Fielder 19.1, Morneau 15.1, Cabrera 10.5, Gonzalez 10.5, Teixeira 17.4…. basically he’s the worse contact hitter of the group in consideration for player of the decade.
by cardsfanboy on Feb 6, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Batting eye
Thank you for pointing that out. I should have said batting eye, which is (BB-IBB)/K in my book. Here’s how they stacked up in 2010 (career):
Votto: .664, (.566)
Adrian: .509 (.484)
Morneau: (.544 career and may never be the same again)
Cabrera, Fielder, Pujols, Teixeira: irrelevant since they probably won’t be stars for all of the next 9 years.
Votto could regress and still have excellent strike zone judgment. I believe that he has been able to sustain a high babip because he forces pitchers to throw strikes late in deep counts and gets more pitches to hit than a similarly powerful hitter with worse strike zone judgment. If I’m right about that, then I expect more of the same from Votto while the rest of the lot is already too old to be great for more than 5-6 of the next 9 years or less.
Obviously, I voted for Votto, but it’s very likely that 7-8 of the next 9 years could be dominated by a 1B who starts his first full season in 2012 or 2013 or a young player now who will soon be moved to 1B and spend most of the next 9 years there.
by KC Viking on Feb 6, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Cabrera, irrelevant?
I voted for Pujols. But to say that Cabrera, with a track record of seven outstanding seasons already, is easily dismissed, is ludicrous. He is younger than Morneau by two years, Gonzalez by a year, and is only five months older than Votto (thank you, OldManDuggan).
How can you say HE is irrelevant among those four? I would say that given their career numbers and ages, he is the MOST likely of the four to continue to produce at the level he has since he was 21 years old.
by sportsczar on Feb 7, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
You voted for a guy who may be much older than his listed age, and the same could be true of Cabrera.
Besides, being a star in the past 10 years does not necessarily mean that the player will be any good in the following 10 years, let alone the best player of the next 10 years. See also: Dale Murphy, Darryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden, Juan Gonzalez, Matt Williams, Jose Canseco, Don Mattingly David Justice, Frank Thomas…and so many more.
by KC Viking on Feb 8, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols is a WAR machine
I’m hoping he gets to free agency so the Cubs can try to sign him or at least drive up his price a bit for whichever team actually does sign him. I figure he’s got four to six years left of Pujolsian production left before he tapers off into the ordinary. I’m aware that not even Pujols is immune against the test of time, but hiding him at 1B will do a lot towards his longevity and I think he can definitely be the best 1B of the first part of this decade before some other guy takes over.
by Rice Cube on Feb 4, 2011 2:00 PM EST reply actions
Pujols vs. Young Hotshot
I think what will happen in 2020 when Neyer is going over this and determining who was the best 1B, he’ll have to choose between Albert Pujols (dominant from 2011-2015) and some unexpected young hotshot who wows the baseball word from 2016-2019.
Pujols may still be good from 2016 till he hangs them up, but it’ll be someone’s 4 great years and potential vs. Pujols’ five great years and slide.
That or Pujols just keeps on hitting till at least 2018 and it won’t matter.
by CMH_YP on Feb 4, 2011 4:20 PM EST reply actions
Which prospects are people basing their choices on?
Just curious as to the specific people. I’ve seen Hosmer mentioned. Who else?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Feb 4, 2011 4:28 PM EST reply actions
While I hope Hosmer does,
I voted for Pujols.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 4, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Hall of Amazing
I was reading an article over at fangraphs about the Yanks picking up Zito. That article mentioned something rather amazing.
How much longer does Zito have to go before reaching the Hall of Amazing for never reaching the DL?
I am observing and judging you.
by birdman on Feb 4, 2011 4:30 PM EST reply actions
Glavine...
Didn’t hit the DL until his 22nd season. Zito might reach the Hall of Amazing for the lowest ROI ever though.
by tommyss on Feb 4, 2011 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Mo Vaughn
Zito’s got some serious sucking to do if he’s gonna catch the Hit Dog.
by walkie on Feb 5, 2011 4:30 AM EST up reply actions
Useing Baseball-Reference's Neutralized Batting tool
Adrian Gonzalez’s slash lines for the past two year would stand as .300/.434/.596 and .323/.421/.555 respectfully if he were to have played in Fenway Park. Versus .288/.400/.530 between the two years at Petco. It seems to me like 2009 will be the benchmark season of Gonzalez for the rest of the career, but that is not to say moving to Fenway won’t help him. It will, especially from a power standpoint. Those adjusted lines are very close to Pujols’s for the past two seasons. However, he still would need to gain significant power to hold a candle against Pujols in the long run. Pujols is a good pick; I would have chosen Miguel Cabrera, but that is probably pro-Detroit bias on my part.
by TJ92 on Feb 4, 2011 5:55 PM EST reply actions
Belt isn't exactly blocked
Huff played in the outfield last year quite a bit to make room for Posey before the Molina trade. Seems reasonable to think Bochy/Sabean will consider that again if they deem Belt MLB-ready. However, Belt’s also been getting some time in the outfield and if he proves himself out there, he might wind up in LF long-term, thus disqualifying him from consideration.
Either way, I wouldn’t put money on him out-performing Pujols or Cabrera over the decade. But I do think he’ll see considerable time in the majors this year, and wouldn’t consider him blocked.
by Monkeyking42 on Feb 4, 2011 7:57 PM EST reply actions
A prospect.
Pujols is good enough he can win best-of-the-decade again, but I’m guessing he’ll fade a bit in his later years, and there is some young kid who will get the title. Freeman? Belt? Hosmer? Even Montero, who is really just waiting for the opportunity to be moved to first.
Basically, I’ll take the field of prospects vs. Pujols, but I don’t do it with any great comfort I’m right!
by LordD99 on Feb 5, 2011 2:21 AM EST reply actions
I Votted for Votto but...
…it is a dead-heat, imo, between him and Pujols. I like the fact that Votto has improved across the board in each of his full major league seasons. I’m not saying he’ll continue to improve, but he could settle down into a nice 4-5 year plateau of .950+ OPS seasons, maybe with a few .900+ seasons after that. Will Pujols be that good? Well, over the next decade Votto will be ages 27-36, whereas Pujols will be 31-40 – and that’s assuming that he’s not 32 or 33 right now. I remember when Pujols first game up and he was “21” I thought he looked much older. Of course then there’s Greg Oden…
But even if Pujols really is 33 next year, if he’s as good as he was at age 32 last season there is no reason to think he can’t continue to excel into his mid and even late 30s. I suppose that Pujols is likely to be good enough over the next 4-5 years to wrap up best first baseman of the decade by the time its halfway through. As much as I like Votto, I don’t see him putting together 1.000+ OPS seasons year after year. There will likely be some fluctuation and, as Rob noted, we don’t yet know if he’s going to keep that level up or whether he’s going to be more of a slightly better version of Justin Morneau, with an occasional great season intermixed with merely very good ones.
So while I votted for Votto, I have to give the slight edge to Pujols.
As for the prospects, I could be wrong but none of them strike me as a future superstar.
by Angelsjunky7 on Feb 5, 2011 7:12 PM EST reply actions
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