Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: NFL Safety Ryan Clark's Motivational Workout

From Our Editors

Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.

Presenting The Worst World Series Winners In Baseball History

Easy, kids. Chris Jaffe has identified the worst World Series winners ... but with a twist. He hasn't simply made a list of the World Series winners with the worst records. That would be too easy. Nor has he made a list of the World Series winners with the worst regular-season run differentials. Also too easy.

No, Jaffe has run every World Series winner through a simulation to strip out all the luck. Or as much as possible, anyway. And the results are pretty wild, because when you strip out all the luck you wind up with some wild records. After the jump, the five worst World Series winners since 1969, plus an editorial comment from your intrepid blogger (or whatever I am now) ...

Star-divide

Here they are, with simulated records:

1987 Twins     71-91
2006 Cardinals 75-87
1985 Royals    77-85
1988 Dodgers   77-85
1982 Cardinals 79-83

I know some of you think that's impossible, that the '87 Twins couldn't possibly have been, on some deeply fundamental level, a 71-91 team.

Well, you're just flat wrong. It's incredibly naive to think that a team's true talent shows up perfectly in the actual wins or losses, or even in the actual runs scored and allowed. Many of us have moved from wins and losses to run differential, but of course that's just one of the possible steps.

I'm not saying the '87 Twins were exactly a 71-91 team, deep down. The point is that if wins and losses can be deceptive, so can run differentials. And if run differentials can be deceptive, there must be teams that were worse than their records and their run differentials ... and that some of those teams must also have occasionally gotten hot at the right time and won championships.

Still, I suspect that if you're a Twins fan or a Cardinals fan or a Kirk Gibson fan, you're howling right now. How dare Chris Jaffe besmirch the memory of my glorious World Series-winning heroes!

I don't see it that way. My all-time favorite team is the 1985 Kansas City Royals. I lived and died and (ultimately) lived with that team every day and night for nearly seven months. You know what I mean. There wasn't a waking hour when I didn't think about the last game, or the next one.

Granted, I didn't how good they actually were. I knew they were down big at the All-Star break, then stormed into contention and held off the Angels in the season's final weekend. That was good enough for me. It wasn't until months (or years) later that I really understood how awful the Royals' hitting was; they finished 13th in scoring in a 14-team league. They had been outscored in 1984, and would be outscored again in 1986.

In 1985, the Royals rode George Brett, a squad of outstanding young starting pitchers, and a massive helping of good luck to a championship, beating three superior teams -- the Angels, the Blue Jays, and the Cardinals -- along the way. And you know what?

I couldn't care less. All that matters to me is how that team made me feel, and they made me feel fantastic. There's nothing that you or Chris Jaffe or anyone else can say to make feel any less fantastic about that season.

I know you can't all be like me. But I suggest you give it a shot. It's a happier way to live, I think.

Update: Wow, this is embarrassing. I misread Jaffe's article. He wasn't simulating these teams' seasons. He was simulating the World Series teams playing against each other, thus arriving at comparative rankings through head-to-head results. Which means those teams weren't nearly as (fundamentally) lame as I thought. My apologies to you, and my thanks to Rany Jazayerli for pointing out my error.

Poll
Do you get upset when people say terrible things about your favorite team?
Yes
146 votes
No
238 votes
Yes, but I just hit a pillow.
86 votes

470 votes | Poll has closed

Do you like this post?

Comments

Display:

How did the 2005 White Sox not top this list? Seem to remember them getting lucky in about 80 of their wins that year.

Il faut d'abord durer.

by CU Adam on Feb 9, 2011 9:36 AM EST reply actions  

On that note...

What about the worst World Series MVP winners? Seeing the ‘06 Cardinals on Jaffe’s list immediately brings to mind David Eckstein winning the MVP for that series.

by csupp on Feb 9, 2011 9:38 AM EST reply actions  

So the 82 Cardinals weren’t actually good and the 85 and 87 Cardinals lost to two of the worst World Series winners… My childhood is ruined!

"In 2035, 25 young men will be able to call themselves world champions. Some of those guys haven’t even been born yet. And some of them are Asian." -Mike Shannon

by Alxfritz on Feb 9, 2011 9:43 AM EST reply actions  

Luck Evens It All Out...?

As a lifelong Cardinals fan, I can say with some conviction, Jaffe is only partially right. Having appeared in four of the top five World Series listed here, they luckily WON two, and apparently, unluckily LOST two.

So, as luck would have it…I’ll celebrate the two rings they have won in my lifetime.

by sportsczar on Feb 9, 2011 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

Cardinals

Anybody else notice their recent (last 30 years) ability to win the world series when they have a bad or mediocre team (2006, 1982) and lose when they have an awesome team (1985, 1987, 2004)?

Yep, every Hall of Famer did something unique. Mike Schmidt played with his hat sideways. Roberto Clemente chewed other people's fingernails. Tris Speaker was Japanese. Lou Boudreau rode a dolphin into the batter's box. Nap Lajoie would only use John Wilkes Booth's dismembered leg as a bat. And he corked it. Johnny Mize was from the future. - FJM

by Choix003 on Feb 9, 2011 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

Why yes, I do notice.

In regards to the poll question, when someone says something “terrible” about my favorite team, all they have to say for me to get mad is “Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore pranced on your favorite team’s field like a bunch of twits for a horrible movie, compounding the adding frustration and agony of watching the most dominant team in 2004 get swept aside by some grand historical narrative which only intensified my hatred for everything East Coast, ever.”

Yeah, I get mad.

"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
follow me on teh twitterz @greenfieldt

by tgreenfield on Feb 9, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

1980s

Isn’t it somewhat curious that 4 of the 5 teams come from a 7-year stretch in the 1980s? I wonder if the simulation algorithm they are using is for some reason being particularly unkind to teams of that era.

by APV on Feb 9, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

just the opposite

I agree, Rob, that people often get cranky when seeing their team on a list like this, but I look at it the other way. As any stat nerd will quickly admit, the numbers are long run predictors, on average, etc. It’s in the variability from those means that the games actually happen. That’s the best part about sports, the fact that a team who seems to have no way to actually win on paper, manages to. On paper these teams were “lucky” but in the moment they’re “clutch,” or “magical.” That’s the beauty of sports, the tension between statistical predictions and the real thing. I’m a Michigan fan and there’s an old joke: “Did you hear they’re changing out the grass in Michigan Stadium for a cardboard turf? Why? Because Michigan is always great on paper.” It’s that gap that makes the whole thing worth it.

by Moooooose on Feb 9, 2011 9:50 AM EST reply actions  

The Detroit Tigers are the real losers in this study

Although I still remember the pain from 2006, I think I have almost successfully purged 1987 from my memory…

by Jayvee7 on Feb 9, 2011 10:22 AM EST reply actions  

Did I read the original study wrong?

Does Neyer assume that the Twins are a true-talent 71-91 team? Because it seems that Jaffe combined the 14 post-1969 contenders for this “honor” into one simulation. So, the Twins wouldn’t be a 71-91 true talent team, but rather a 71-91 team against other prior WS winners.

But I couldn’t agree more with the premise of the article.

by CurseOfTskitishvili on Feb 9, 2011 11:05 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

You read it right; Rob read it wrong.

Jaffe picked 28 of what he guessed were the worst World Series winners, and had them play each other over 1000 simulated seasons (divided into two divisions) – that’s where these records come from. It still figures out the worst World Series winners, but it certainly doesn’t tell us where they should have finished in reality when stripped of all luck.

Rob, this is a pretty major misinterpretation. I don’t mean to tell you your business, but it seems to me that a correction of some sort is in order.

by Preston on Feb 9, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Worst World Series winner

seems akin to being the ugliest Miss America or dumbest Nobel Prize winning physicist. It’s a heck of a lot better than being the best second place finisher ever.

by Cormican on Feb 9, 2011 11:13 AM EST reply actions  

I think the 4th choice

should have been;

Yes, but I read Rob’s blog anyway.

by bobulated on Feb 9, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions  

completely agree

a 13-year-old minneapolitan in 1987, knowing that those twins were really that bad just makes that season that much more magical. LOVEd those guys.

by KENtastic on Feb 9, 2011 11:50 PM EST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed