Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
Giants prospect Brandon Belt is making a bid to break camp with the big club, regardless of financial considerations. So GM Brian Sabean says, anyway. Henry Schulman (via SFGate):
"But you still always are going to pick the best team. You're going to pick the team with the most versatility that gives you the best chance to win each game and series. That's what it comes down to."
--snip--
Sabean was adamant before spring training that Belt needed a season in Triple-A but said the 22-year-old has forced his way into the GM's thinking.
Hmmm, where to start ...
Look, Sabean apparently won't admit this, but it would be naive to believe contract considerations don't come into play here. Was there really anyone who thought the Giants were better without Buster Posey last April and May than they would have been with him? Posey's call-up in late May was pretty obviously done with his arbitration clock in mind.
Meanwhile, there was never any reason to believe Belt needed "a season" in Triple-A. Sure, maybe a few months. But we're talking about a 23-year-old (almost) hitter who zipped through three levels last season, raking all the while. Granted, it was his first professional season. But great hitters don't need full seasons in Triple-A. If Belt isn't ready right now, he will be soon.
Which doesn't mean he should play now. We're talking about millions of dollars. Potentially, anyway. And when you consider the defensive hit the Giants will take with Belt at first base and Aubrey Huff in the outfield, the difference in wins over the course of two months is not two and perhaps not even one.
Like it or not, the system is what it is. The Giants have a first baseman already, and three or four outfielders good enough to hold the fort until June. Send the kid back to Fresno, already.
14 comments
Comments
Point of order:
Posey will probably be a super-two anyway. So the contract considerations thing might have been true at the outset but didn’t hold true in the long run.
Also, a GM explicitly citing “contract considerations” would probably get a nasty stink-eye from the union, and be lucky if that’s all they got from the union.
Belt only played something like 17 games at AAA last year, and other than his BB% didn’t perform too well. There’s no reason to rush him.
Et tu, Ribe?
by Solidarity on Mar 18, 2011 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
He actually did do pretty well in Fresno
He hit .229/.393/.562/.955 (SSS), so it was really just his BA that was low (thanks to a .241 BABIP). I agree that he should be in the minors, but mostly because he has only 61 PA at AAA, not because he didn’t perform there.
by Reddish on Mar 18, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It still matters
By missing a few weeks he won’t get 6 years of service time in six years. Its an entire extra year of team control. That is certainly worth it.
by endaround on Mar 18, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Don't Rush Him
Rob, How many articles have you written about players who didn’t succeed because they were rushed, either due to urgent need, popular demand, or misguided MLB deals? Even without the arbitration situation, it’s silly to not take the safe route, and give him another few months.
Baseball is a grind, and he might as well learn that in April, rather than August when the games count. If I’m Sabean, I’m as worried about having a WMPena, Aceves, Pelfrey or Joba on my hands as I am about a super-2.
by okin15 on Mar 18, 2011 5:53 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah cos Pelfrey's a train wreck... /sarc
by Guy Allen Davis on Mar 19, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm no expert baseball analyst...
but I’m pretty sure the games in April count just as much as the ones in August.
In the game of chess, you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
by jsimon66 on Mar 19, 2011 1:39 AM EDT reply actions
It's impossible to tell the future...
If you call up a Posey or a Belt or a Starlin Castro or Dustin Ackley or Michael Pineda in April and/or May, and you still end up out of it in August, you’re going to wish you hadn’t wasted a year of service time for 50 games in April and/or May that ultimately didn’t matter. This comes with the union-proof caveat that you have reasonable options already available, under contract and on the major league roster.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Mar 21, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
If you want to base decisions on avoiding regret,
shouldn’t you also consider the possibility that they wait until August to call up a stud and then miss the playoffs by a game or two? This whole idea of trivializing the games in April makes absolutely no sense to me.
In the game of chess, you can never let your adversary see your pieces.
by jsimon66 on Mar 22, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe this will help...
The difference between Pat Burrell (and others) and Brandon Belt over the course of 1 or 2 months is not equal to a game or 2… and that’s at the peak of Belt’s projection for this year.
It’s simply not worth it when they have other options to man his position and can reevaluate if and when Belt forces their hand. They’re not going to sacrifice a full of year of prime production for 1 or 2 months, where his presence won’t make a big difference. In the scope of Belt’s career with the Giants, games in April are more trivial than getting a full year down the road.
Again… stop trying to tell the future. It’s impossible. This is just smart for the Giants, regardless of how this season plays out. And you’d have to agree they liked the results of what they did with Buster Posey last season, right?
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Mar 22, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Super 2 Status
Sabean is among the many GM’s notorious for waiting on prospects to avoid the magical Super 2 status before they get the call – just as Rob said, look no further than Posey last season. That said, unless he is a significant upgrade (which Posey actually was and still didn’t get the call) let him start at AAA, and if Burrell falls off in LF, move Huff and call him up to man 1B – while saving a year of arbitration in the process.
by dizzy dean17 on Mar 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
Except Posey didn't get held back long enough
See Solidarity’s post.
As it was, Posey got called up historically fast for a catcher (maybe second to Matt Wieters in minor league service time). I don’t know if the common wisdom about catcher development is now changing, or if Posey will be regarded as exceptional in retrospect.
"The two worst things in football are: 1) They think that a 30-year old professional athlete has to be locked up in a hotel room, with a curfew, the night before a qame; and 2) They're right."
- Cowboy safety Cliff Harris
by achiappanza on Mar 21, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Point of order concerning defense
Is Huff in LF really any worse defensively than Burrell? If Belt is at least a match for Huff at 1B defensively, then it’s hard to see how they really lose anything defensively moving going from Burrell/Huff to Huff/Belt (not that the idea of either Burrell or Huff in LF is very appetizing defensively).
by Wookster on Mar 20, 2011 1:36 AM EDT reply actions
Agreed
That was my thought as well.
According to scouting reports, Belt is supposed to be an outstanding defensive 1B, so even if Huff replicates last year’s defensive above-averageness, that’s an improvement there and Huff>Burrell as well.
by natedawg321 on Mar 21, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
It's not the arb, it's the years of control
The Giants shouldn’t be worried about a few million bucks a few years from now. If he’s good enough to earn it from an arbiter, they’ll be happy to pay it. And as was seen with Posey, it’s getting harder to predict the Super 2 cut-off date as more teams game the system.
One year contracts at below market rate are always a good thing for the team. It’s how many of those very valuable years they get. If the Giants can get away with it (on the field and with the union), the smart play is to keep Belt in AAA for ten days and get that seventh year.
by Paxton Crawford Ranch on Mar 21, 2011 8:45 AM EDT reply actions
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