Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
The second part of a five-part Baseball Prospectus series listing the 50 most disappointing prospects (of all time!) includes Matt Wieters ... and Dempsey's Army runs some numbers and begs to differ. The Army's big finish ...
Expectations were sky-high for Wieter, no doubt. But he is still a catcher and the expectations have to be placed in context for his position. I still think Wieters will develop into a .800+ OPS hitter and he has plenty of time to do so. But even if he sticks "around for years", has a 10-year career as a league average hitter and a solid defensive catcher, is that one of 50 most disappointing prospects ever? No way.
And he certainly doesn't deserve that tag at age 24. Not on this planet.
"Disappointing" is highly subjective. The Baseball Prospectus crew is naturally disappointed in Wieters, considering they basically anointed him the new Johnny Bench two years ago. But as Dempsey's Army demonstrates, in terms of 24-year-old catchers he's done just fine and still figures to have a solid career. If not better.
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Second coming
BP (well, actually, PECOTA) overshot it’s projection on Wieters to an nearly unimaginable degree, so I can see their perspective regarding his relative disappointment. However, the true disappointment should be the flaw in PECOTA that spit out such an absurd projection. Hopefully, Colin Wyers’ work will prevent similar future occurrences.
by GBSimons on Mar 2, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions
I think it’s too early to label him a bust. Right now, he’s looking to have a solid career as a catcher which is certainly valuable in the short term before he reaches an expensive salary in arbitration. At the same time though, that first list of catchers is extremely telling. There are many rather pedestrian catchers on that list among HOF types as well. If Wieters’ career plays out like Charles Johnson, Benito Santiago, Kurt Suzuki, Russell Martin, Mark Bailey, or Rich Gedman, I’m going to be massively disappointed. There’s value in a career like Johnson, Suzuki, or Santiago, but O’s and prospect mavens alike expected so much more (perhaps unfairly). In 2010, Wieters ranked 12th out of 18 catchers in wOBA with 400 or more PAs. Bat wise, that’s disappointing.
Folksy literate type.
by birdman on Mar 2, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions
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