Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
The release of Oliver Perez reminded me about the binder that Scott Boras put together two years ago, when Perez was looking for a fat new contract. Some of the highlights, from Michael S. Schmidt (in the Times) ...
The Perez book is divided into eight chapters that include such headings as: "Perez Turns Corner in 2006," "Perez Is One of Baseball's Top 5 Left-Handed Starting Pitchers," "A Rare Young Left-Handed Starting Pitcher Available on the Free-Agent Market," "Big-Game Ollie," and "Durable Ollie."
In the chapter "Perez Turns Corner in 2006," charts are used to argue that the pitching statistics for Perez, who is now 27, are similar to those of Randy Johnson and the Hall-of-Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax at the same age. What's more, the charts argue that Perez's control problems will improve, just like they did for Koufax and Johnson as they got older.
In the past, I've argued that Boras's famous (or infamous) binders are transparently one-sided, and exist more for the benefit of his clients than any actual negotiations.
A few weeks ago, MLB Trade Rumors went back and grabbed some of the reactions when Perez signed with the Mets, and Jayson Stark was the only guy who really nailed it, listing Perez's deal as one of three "most outrageous" contracts of that off-season.
I wish I could find my reaction, but no luck so far. Considering my skepticism about the binder, I'm guessing I wasn't wild about three years and $36 million. But I'll bet if you ran a projection for Perez, the moment he signed that contract, the money wouldn't have seemed that crazy. In fact, I recall a valuation on the order of $9 million per season, maybe even a little more.
There's just no way anyone could have reasonably guessed that Perez would go from 25-17 and 3.91 over two seasons to 3-9 and 6.81 in the next two. To be sure, this was an organizational failure and a big part of Omar Minaya's legacy. But sometimes players will surprise you, and sometimes terribly.
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Perez and Boras
In real life, we try and downplay expectations, for failure of meeting same. If I was to interview with a prospective employer, I would tell him what I thought I was capable of, certainly, but I wouldn’t tell him that I was one of the top 5 in my profession. Statements like that just make us look silly. But only in baseball, and especially when Scott Boras is around, is hyperbole the best approach. It creates expectations which almost no pitcher could satisfy, and is probably one of the reasons why Mets fans (justifiably) hate Perez. So I suppose, on one level (money) Boras did his job right; but on lots of other levels, being circumspect and humble is the way to go.
by gyaris on Mar 21, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions
Nothing stops us from some retroactive projections. Do a 3-2-1 weighting on his previous three years rWAR and I get 0.9 rWAR. Figure in no decline, due to age and I get 2.7 total rWAR over three years. Figure $4.5M per win in year one and plus 5% per year afterward, an I get $4.1M+$4.3M+$4.5M = $12.9M. So not even close to what he got.
Throw out the 2006 completely and even figure an expected 1.5 rWAR per year [roughly what he did 2007-2008] and I still only come up with $21M. At 1.5 rWAR per year, you’d have to expect 65% yearly inflation in FA prices. Not very likely, so the expectations must have been alot higher.
To get to $36M in value using 5% inflation, you have to expect 2.5 rWAR per year. His track record didn’t seem to indicate that was a likely scenerio.
by erosen on Mar 21, 2011 12:56 PM EDT reply actions
You hated it
On our podcast, you picked it as the worst contract of that winter.
by scotth23 on Mar 21, 2011 4:27 PM EDT reply actions
Boras
I agree that it’s ridiculous and that the binder’s projection was ridiculous. However, It’s Boras’s job to get his client money. The fact that he succeeded so well in Perez’s case (especially when some smart people thought the signing was stupid) just goes to show how good Boras is at his job.
What’s he supposed to say? My client will perform like Jim Abbott did after his 27th birthday.
by jco on Mar 21, 2011 8:32 PM EDT reply actions
Minaya
And just how bad Minaya was at his.
It’s Boras’ responsibility to get his clients as much money as he can. It’s the GM’s responsibility to get the best value for his dollar.
Boras is a master at sniffing out the rube. Perez’s deal wasn’t completed until February 2nd. February 2nd! That doesn’t strike me as a pitcher in high demand, yet Minaya still gave him $12 million a year with essentially no one bidding against him.
Boras is good at his job. There’s little doubt about that. But Minaya let himself get fleeced. All he had to do was say no.
by scotth23 on Mar 22, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Big market teams seem like they always have to spend their money in the off-season, even if it’s not a smart signing. The Angels missed out on Crawford so they got Wells. The Yankees didn’t land Lee so they sign Soriano. The Mets had the money so they gave it to Perez.
by Pflood83 on Mar 22, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions
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