Are Reds BEST Bet To Win Division Title?

From Peter Gammons' latest for MLB.com:

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It was one of those in-game conversations that general managers and their lieutenants have during games.\\

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"The Reds may be the single biggest favorite in any division going into the season," said one GM. Pause.

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"I think you're right," said another. "Boston and New York are too close, so are the Braves and Phillies and the A's and Rangers ..."

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According to the numbers -- these numbers, anyway -- the Reds aren't even the favorites in their division. They're not even supposed to finish second. Really, though, there aren't any big favorites. You're not going to find many reputable projections that show any first-place team with more than a three- or four-game lead. And since the standard deviation for wins is five, essentially none of those leads are big enough to bet real money on.

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