SB Nation MLB Question Of The Day
After two years of good hitting and lousy pitching, the Brewers have finally addressed their biggest need with two big trades. Will newcomers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum be enough in 2011?
Mar 3, 2011 - There are questions surrounding all 30 MLB teams during Spring Training, and Rob Neyer intends to answer them with his 30-part Question of the Day series. Today, he takes a look at the Milwaukee Brewers.
This one's easy.
The Brewers will open the 2010 season with almost exactly the same lineup as they finished 2009. There's just one change: at shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt replaces Alcides Escobar. On most teams, replacing anyone with Yuniesky Betancourt would constitute a downgrade, but in this case Escobar was so awful at the plate last season that Betancourt can scarcely be worse. Granted, the Brewers will take a defensive hit, but overall this is roughly a wash.
So the same Brewers who ranked fourth in the National League in scoring last season are likely to do roughly as well this season.
The problem last season wasn't scoring runs; it was preventing them. Milwaukee finished 14th in the league with a 4.59 ERA, and their starters were even worse: 4.65 ERA, 15th in the National League. And that after a 2009 that was even worse.
For two straight seasons, the Brewers featured excellent hitting but execrable pitching, and of course it cost them dearly as they finished below .500 both years. Clearly, whatever they've been doing to build a pitching staff -- and a rotation, in particular, just wasn't working. The Manny Parras and the Doug Davises and the Jeff Suppans and the David Bushes just weren't getting it done.
Brewers fans have been incredibly patient, and last year nearly three million of them showed up to watch a 77-85 squad. But even Cheeseheads might run out of patience eventually, and Prince Fielder's impending free agency adds just another temporal imperative. The time is now, and so this winter management pulled the trigger on two big trades.
First, they traded second baseman Brett Lawrie -- their one truly hot hitting prospect -- straight up to Toronto for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum.
Second, two weeks later they traded a quartet of young players to Kansas City for Zack Greinke (and Yuniesky Betancourt, but that was just because if nobody plays shortstop you give up way too many singles and also it's really hard to turn most varieties of the double play).
The Big Question, then, is pretty obvious: Are Greinke and Marcum enough to get the Brewers' run prevention into the middle of the National League pack, and thus push the club into real contention?
In a word, yes.
In this case, the math is exceptionally simple. Last season, David Bush, Manny Parra, Doug Davis and Chris Capuano combined for 64 starts, and in the aggregate performed at almost exactly replacement level.
Absent injuries, Greinke and Marcum will make roughly 64 starts, and we may estimate they'll be roughly eight to 10 Wins Above Replacement ... and thus eight to 10 wins better than the pitchers they're replacing.
At this point the simplicity breaks down a little. We can't just add eight or 10 wins to the Brewers' 77 last season, because the other 23 players on the roster are variables, too. We can't just assume that if Greinke and Marcum are healthy all season, the Brewers will win 85-87 games.
You know what, though?
If you run the math, that's almost exactly where the Brewers grade out. And with 85-87 wins going in, a few breaks or a canny trade can push you to 90 and Nirvana.
Greinke and Marcum really are the keys. As they should be, considering how much the Brewers gave up to get them. The farm system is now almost completely devoid of top-tier talent, which means the window might well close after this season.
5 comments
Comments
Marcum's splits
Marcum’s #’s vs RHB last season were scary and the NL Central has more right-handed batters than any other division in baseball according to a recent article at BP. One year blip on the radar or a trend worth watching?
Dockoftherays.com
by Jason Collette on Mar 3, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions
Marcum’s issue with righties is typically from an inflated HR/FB rate. His K/BB has remained pretty strong against them his entire career though. I suppose it depends on your belief of HR/FB. If you believe its luck, then you’d bet on Marcum improving vs righties (from an FIP standpoint). If it is a skill, then you’d probably bet on Marcum’s FIP to be mediocre against righties once again. I tend to believe its luck, so I he’ll improve.
Against lefties it was the other way; he over-achieved (from an FIP standpoint once again), so he might regress some there. Overall though, when you add it up and factor in the switching of leagues, I still think hes a solid bet to maintain an FIP between 3.50 and 4.
by nmigliore on Mar 3, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Defense
Rob— disappointed you hardly mentioned that the Brewers are shaping up to be quite possible the worst defensive club in the NL.
They’re obviously great hitters, but Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun are two of the worst defenders in baseball at their respective positions. Casey McGehee has graded out poorly in defensive metrics across the board. Ditto Corey Hart. The numbers are a little more all over the place with Rickie Weeks, but he has been somewhat of an error prone second baseman. Y. Betancourt is by anyone’s standards (other than Dayton Moore’s) probably the worst SS in baseball.
I realize Escobar didn’t hit a lick last year, but he and Carlos Gomez (possibly the worst hitter in the major leagues) represented the only competent defenders on their roster, and one of them is gone. IMO—- a defense this bad is not at all conducive to winning 90 games like some have predicted for them.
by Jack Nugent on Mar 3, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Pitching
Gallardo-Greinke-Marcum still isn’t as good as Lincecum-Sanchez-Cain. There’s gonna be some epic pitching duels come October at this rate.
Don't stop believin'.
by OnDeck_Matt on Mar 3, 2011 12:01 PM EST reply actions
In the spirit of Neyer, I won't argue with your ranking.
However, I’d agree that there could be some amazing NL pitching duels in October — with not only those two clubs but the Phillies as well.
by abbreviatedman on Mar 3, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
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