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SB Nation MLB Question Of The Day

Spring Training 2011 Question Of The Day: San Diego Padres

After their near-miss in 2010, the Padres now face a potentially long rebuilding process, but excellent seasons from Mat Latos and Cameron Maybin would represent a good start.

Mar 30, 2011 - There are shockingly few interesting questions we might ask about the 2011 San Diego Padres, mostly because for a rebuilding team they have shockingly few interesting players.

The most interesting thing about the Padres is their bullpen, which turned in another stellar season in 2010. But where's the question? With most of the group returning, San Diego's relievers should be excellent again.

The second-most interesting thing about the Padres is ... Well, that's where we run into trouble. Starting pitcher Clayton Richard is still fairly young (27) but he's been almost exactly the same pitcher for three years running, so we know what we're going to see from him. Tim Stauffer is 28, and is intriguing solely because of his back-story. The fourth overall pick in the 2003 draft, Stauffer spent years struggling with injuries and other years in Triple-A, but has posted a 2.66 in 152 innings over the last two seasons and was just named the Padres' Opening Day starter. If nothing else, you have to admire his perseverance.

But no, I think the No. 1 question about the Padres relates to a couple of young, obviously talented but perhaps fatally flawed players: pitcher Mat Latos and center fielder Cameron Maybin.

Organizationally, the Padres have a lot of work to do. They did add some fine prospects in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but there's not a Grade A prospect in the entire farm system and there are precious few Grade B's. Which makes the young and talented players on the major-league roster seem all the more important. And since there are precious few of those guys, too, that makes them all the more important.

Last summer, Latos put together 15 straight starts in which he pitched at least five innings and gave up two or fewer runs.

Believe it or not, no one -- not Cy Young or Christy Mathewson or Lefty Grove or Whitey Ford or Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax or Nolan Ryan or Steve Carlton or Tom Seaver or Roger Clemens or anyone else -- had ever done that before. Not bad for a 22-year-old kid who'd pitched only 47 innings above Class A before graduating to the major leagues.

But Latos still has some things to learn, mostly about living with himself. According to Baseball Prospectus (the book), Latos's "lack of self-control was noticeable enough that team officials and pitching coach Darren Balsley were moved to comment on it multiple times."

With that in mind, it's worth noting that Latos -- who did so much to get the Padres into first place down the stretch -- went 0-5 with an 8.18 ERA in his last five starts.

Perhaps he was merely tired, as Latos had never been worked so hard before (and probably wouldn't have been, if the Padres hadn't been fighting for a playoff spot). Whether because he threw 185 innings last season or not, Latos will open this season on the Disabled List with a strained right shoulder. The injury isn't thought to be serious, and Latos is expected to take his place in the rotation soon.

Young pitchers are inherently question marks, though. And Latos should wear a jersey covered with them.

Cameron Maybin's a completely different story, without even a hint of Latos's success in the majors.

But ...

* four years ago, Maybin was ranked as the game's No. 6 prospect by Baseball America;

* three years ago, Maybin was ranked as the game's No. 6 prospect; and

* two years ago, Maybin was ranked as the game's No. 8 prospect.

Two years ago.

So what's happened since then? Maybin made that dreadful transition from prospect to suspect.

In 2009, he played in 54 games for the Marlins and didn't hit much.

In 2010, he played in 82 games for the Marlins and didn't hit much at all.

Throw in some earlier brief action with the Marlins and Tigers, and Maybin's .246/.313/.380 career line in the majors doesn't suggest future greatness. Then again, that career is only 610 plate appearances, roughly one full season's worth ... and isn't a talented young player allowed a season's worth of adjustments, and failure? They can't all be Jason Heyward and Buster Posey, right?

Or so the Padres are hoping. For whatever reason, Maybin's had a particularly tough time making contact in the majors. He's always been an excellent defensive center fielder, so if he can simply maintain his defense and cut the strikeouts down to a reasonable number, he might yet prove all those prospect mavens right.

Two brilliant young players won't be enough to get the Padres back into contention. But two is better than one, or none. And you have to start somewhere.

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Rob Neyer

National Baseball Editor

Rob Neyer began his career with legendary baseball author Bill James, and later worked for STATS, Inc. and ESPN.com, writing more words for that website than anyone else. Rob has written or... Read full bio


Comments

Display:

Disagree

Headley and Hawpe are both very interesting stores.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Mar 30, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

I might grant you Headley. It will be interesting to see if he can repeat his 2010. And I hate to destroy your opinion with facts, but a 32 year old with a three year total fWar of 1.4 is not interesting in the least.

by indyralph on Mar 30, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

The situation is interesting

He’s taking over for Gonzalez, switching positions and having a tremendous spring. Good potential for a feel-good story there.

Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.

by John Gennaro on Mar 30, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hawpe

Here’s the thing about his overall war: it’s bad because he’s been damn near the worst defensive player in the game. It’s almost looked like he’s a first baseman forced to move to the outfield to (rightfully at first) accommodate a club icon who was blocking him…

What’s interesting is whether he can approach that .382 wOBA he put up over almost 2300 plate appearances from 2006-2009, or the 330 number from last year is all he’s got any more. If he gets back to the previous numbers, even if he matches the worst fielding value posted by a 1B last year, he’ll be about a 2.5WAR player.

by realitypolice on Mar 30, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

How is Heath bell not interesting?

http://twitter.com/matthewverygood
http://lobsterstuffedwithtacos.tumblr.com

by matthewverygood on Mar 30, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Because...

… Heath Bell will always be Heath Bell, an excellent relief pitcher? Are you predicting a sudden jump to the starting rotation or something? Rob said “interesting,” not “good.”

by Phillie697 on Mar 30, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have you heard the man speak?

I believe that is what Mr. Matthewverygood was talking about.

by Natrone Bomb on Mar 30, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then...

the Chicago White Sox is more interesting than every team in the AL, since Ozzie is interesting enough for the entire team, hell the entire AL. In fact, he can make the PADRES interesting… even as the manager of the White Sox.

by Phillie697 on Mar 31, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Isn’t all the potential bounce backs/change of scenery guys an interesting story? Hawpe, Cantu, Harang, Bartlett, Neshak, maybe Hudson to a lesser extent. Was Ludwick a product of a St. Louis lineup or was he just in a terrible rut when he came over last year?

This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman

by Padres_Hobo on Mar 30, 2011 3:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Well...

With the exception of Ludwick, which might have been just a blip on the radar, how is potential bounce-back/change of scenery of guys with pretty low ceilings to begin with interesting?

by Phillie697 on Mar 30, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

The pure fact that if they can perform to previous levels

before injuries, trades, etc. This team could surprise as many people as last years team. Maybe not very interesting to a Philly fan, but interesting to me.

This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman

by Padres_Hobo on Mar 30, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shouldn't have been too surprising to any baseball fan

familiar with Gonzalez. Seems like once he was traded to Boston, people realized he existed and wondered how San Diego would ever make it without him.

Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.

by Mad_Villain on Mar 31, 2011 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would like to believe that SB Nation audiences are a bit less deserving of your sarcasm above… so yeah, know your audience.

by Phillie697 on Mar 31, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I ragged on the Phillies because you lost Werth

you’d tell me to STFU. That’s how I feel about Gonzalez. The Padres didn’t win 90 games because of 1 guy.

Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.

by Mad_Villain on Apr 1, 2011 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Farm system does blow

 
I can’t understand why Baseball America rated the Padres as the #8 system. The Padres look more like the 20th “best” to me.

It’s hard to see this team doing anything but spinning its wheels on into infinity. Rich area is San Diego, but never any money spent on the payroll and not much on the farm either.

But they got a new ballpark with taxpayer dollars!

by Free_AEC on Mar 30, 2011 4:28 PM EDT reply actions  

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