MLB playoff odds Sept. 16: Rangers falling, Indians surging

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Taking a look at the latest MLB post-season odds from Cool Standings and Baseball Prospectus.

With two weeks remaining in the regular season, five of the six divisions appear to be wrapped up, with the NL Central the only division without a heavy favorite. The Wild Card races, especially in the AL, are still hotly contested and have seen big changes in who is expected to reach the playoffs over the past week.

Here are the playoff odds in the American League:

CoolStandings.com Baseball Prospectus
Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Red Sox 92 59 99.9 <0.1 100 100 0 100
Tigers 86 63 98.8 1.1 99.9 99.1 0.7 99.9
Athletics 88 61 99.7 0.3 99.9 99.4 0.6 100
Rangers 81 67 0.3 56.3 56.6 0.6 59.5 60.2
Rays 81 67 <0.1 53.0 53.0 0 71.1 71.1
Indians 81 68 1.2 68.8 69.9 0.9 53.6 54.4
Yankees 79 71 0.0 6.5 6.5 0 4.5 4.5
Orioles 79 70 0.0 5.9 5.9 0 5.6 5.6
Royals 78 71 <0.1 8.1 8.1 0.1 4.3 4.3

The Athletics completed a three-game sweep over the Rangers, all but clinching the AL West. Last Monday, Texas still had a 29.6 percent chance of winning the division, but six straight losses have dropped their chances of winning the division 29.3 percent and their overall playoff odds 35.3 percent.

The Indians have greatly increased their playoff odds since last Monday, going 5-2 over the past week. Cleveland's winning streak combined with struggles in Tampa Bay and Texas have helped raise the Indians' playoff odds 40.9 percent.

Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Braves 89 60 99.9 <0.1 99.9 100 0 100
Dodgers 86 63 99.9 0 99.9 100 0 100
Cardinals 87 62 59.5 40.4 99.9 53.8 46.1 99.9
Pirates 87 62 36.3 63.5 99.9 39.9 60.1 100
Reds 84 66 4.2 92.7 96.9 6.3 90.7 97.0
Nationals 79 70 <0.1 3.3 3.3 0.0 3.1 3.1

The Pirates and Cardinals remain tied atop the NL Central, but a Reds loss on Sunday put the division further out of reach for Cincinnati. The Reds had a 26.5 percent chance of winning the division last week while the Pirates only had a 13.5 percent chance, but Cincinnati went 2-4 while Pittsburgh went 6-1, shaking up the division.

The Nationals continue to hang around, thanks to an 11-3 record in Sept. They will start a key three-game series against the Braves on Monday, who have had Washington's number all year; the Nationals enter Monday 4-12 against Atlanta.

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