MLB playoff odds Sept. 19: Royals, Orioles and Yankees keeping hope alive

Al Messerschmidt

Taking a look at the latest MLB post-season odds from Cool Standings and Baseball Prospectus.

We're now headed into the penultimate weekend of the regular season and no one has clinched a playoff spot., though several teams are very close. The Red Sox and Dodgers could have both booked their tickets to October with a win Wednesday night, but it just didn't happen.

Meanwhile, the AL Wild Card race just keeps getting closer. Let's check in on the AL playoff odds after a crazy night of baseball: Baseball Prospectus
Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Red Sox 92 61 99.9 <0.1 100 100 0 100
Tigers 88 64 99.8 0.2 99.9 99.9 0.1 100
Athletics 89 63 99.9 0.1 99.9 99.7 0.3 100
Rays 83 68 <0.1 63.3 63.3 0 78.6 78.6
Indians 82 70 0.2 55.1 55.3 0.1 42.3 42.4
Rangers 82 69 0.1 48.3 48.4 0.3 57.0 57.3
Orioles 81 70 <0.1 16.6 16.6 0 13.8 13.8
Royals 80 72 <0.1 6.7 6.7 0 4.4 4.4
Yankees 80 72 0.0 6.0 6.0 0 3.4 3.4

The Rays, Orioles and Yankees all won in dramatic fashion Wednesday night, making the AL Wild Card race just a bit crazier while moving one step closer to realizing the worst nightmares of Rangers fans. Tampa Bay now moves in front in the WC, improving their odds by over nine percentage points (per BP) with the extra-inning win.

The Rangers, on the other hand, lose the ground they gained with their win on Tuesday, dropping their seven-day delta (i.e. odds change in the last week) back down over -30. With three more games still to go against a Wild Card contender -- the Royals -- things aren't going to get any easier for Texas over the weekend.

Despite losing their series to KC -- and experiencing the biggest one-day drop (-12) in their odds -- the Indians are still sitting in the catbird seat so far as usurping a Wild Card slot goes. BP likes their chances much less than CoolStandings does, but both put the Tribe well ahead of the O's despite just a half-game lead in the standings because of Cleveland's much easier schedule in the last week-plus.

The A's and Tigers both lost, but with the teams right behind them losing as well, they both inched a few hundredths of a point closer to division crowns.

On to the NL:

Team Wins Losses Div WC POFF Div WC POFF
Braves 90 62 99.9 0 99.9 100 0 100
Dodgers 87 65 100 0 100 100 0 100
Cardinals 89 63 84.9 15.1 99.9 65.2 34.6 99.8
Pirates 87 65 7.6 91.6 99.2 20.9 78.6 99.5
Reds 87 66 7.6 91.8 99.3 13.9 83.5 97.4
Nationals 81 71 <0.1 1.5 1.5 0.0 3.3 3.3

The Pirates picked a really bad time to be swept by the cellar-dwelling San Diego Padres. While they're still pretty much a lock for a postseason spot, they're going to have to hold their own in six games against the fast-approaching Reds and pray that the Cards falter down the stretch if they want any shot at avoiding the play-in game.

The Braves finally bested the Nats on Wednesday, putting Washington's odds at a playoff spot perilously close to zero. If DC wants to watch October baseball two years in a row, their best hope is to wish for a historic collapse from one of the two clubs ahead of them.

Los Angeles is still just one win away from clinching the NL West title, while Atlanta needs a win and a Nats loss.

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