This is baseball:
Just when you think you have it figured out, one of the baseball god's jerk German Shepherds jiggles the fabric of space-time, and everything falls down. All the baseball gods can do is run over in their sweatpants and pick it up. When they do, Marlon Byrd is good again. Tim Lincecum is bad. All your predictions, all your fantasy teams, ruined. It will happen this season, too.
This is a piece of writing filled with predictions for every division in baseball. They will be wrong. They will be bad predictions, spectacularly so in some cases.
You will disagree with some of these predictions. That's okay, because your predictions will be wrong, too. They will be bad predictions, spectacularly so in some cases.
Take a moment to think of your March Madness bracket. It doesn't matter if you spent six seconds or six hours on the bracket; it was wrong. If you got all 63 predictions right, you would have won a billion dollars! You did not win a billion dollars. You futzed up a dozen picks in the first round, and it didn't get better from there.
Now think of every baseball game like it's a March Madness bracket. You have ideas of what will happen, and a lot of those will come true. But you'll be wrong a lot, too. Mike Minor doubling off a well-placed Clayton Kershaw fastball is like Alcorn State taking down Syracuse; Andrelton Simmons making an error is like Duke getting upset in the first round. You might guess the final result accurately, but how you got there will be a bunch of implausible nonsense.
There are 2,430 regular-season baseball games. Those would be 2,430 brackets, thousands of different examples of March Madness-level wrong, all careening into each other, spitting out gibberish on the other side. Tim Lincecum is bad now? Marlon Byrd isn't dead? The Pirates? The Nationals? Wait, weren't the Red Sox just in last place?
Your predictions will be wrong.
I was just kidding about my predictions, though. I've spent a lot of time on them, and I know a ton about baseball and baseball teams. These are all probably right.
AL East
Photo credit: Leon Halip
Predicted standings
1. Rays
2. Red Sox
3. Orioles
4. Yankees
5. Blue Jays
Five simple truths about the AL East:
1. The Rays are the best team in the American League, though you could probably talk me out of that belief with a short phone call.
2. The Red Sox are filled with players I don't trust, and they lost Jacoby Ellsbury, but I'm probably underrating them.
3. The Orioles did well to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez at the last second, and they're probably underrated, too. But the rotation isn't quite good enough just yet.
4. The Yankees are vampires, and as soon as you forget about them, you will wake up to them chewing on your nose. They're probably going to be better than we all think. But right now, it doesn't look like they'll have the depth when an old-timer goes down.
5. The Blue Jays just got back from a vacation in Belize, and they can't wait for the offseason to start because they have big ideas.
Must Reads
Why the first-place team will win the division:
Pitching. The Rays probably have the best No. 1 in the division, the best 1-2 punch, the best 1-2-3 punch, the best top four, and the best five starters in the division, depending on how much velocity you're expecting back from CC Sabathia. They'll have Wil Myers for a full year, and even though James Loney is as exciting (yet functional!) as a binder clip, they have enough offense to make it work.
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
I don't trust Clay Buchholz to stay healthy, and I never will. I don't trust John Lackey to not implode, and the same goes for Jake Peavy. I don't trust Mike Carp to do it again, and I don't trust A.J. Pierzynski and Shane Victorino to hold a human baby without taking a gigantic bite out of it, as if it were a ripe pear. Also, I don't trust them to put up similar numbers this year. I don't trust reduced-strikeout Jon Lester, and I don't trust the twentysomethings who are going to be starting in the majors for the first time.
I have trust issues. Of course, you could have written most of the same things about the Red Sox last year, and it would have all be spectacularly wrong.
Grady Sizemore should probably stay healthy, though
Team that could futz everything up:
The Orioles added Nelson Cruz and David Lough to a lineup that was league-average last year, and their rotation looks remarkably unremarkable and pleasant enough. They are the Ron Howard movie of baseball, offending no one, but hardly memorable. But all it takes is a little luck and/or surprises to move from .500 to contender. If Kevin Gausman develops in front of us, or if Manny Machado emerges fully from his chrysalis, the Orioles could make the playoffs easily.
Also, Michael Pineda is going to throw 200 innings of 2.80 ERA baseball, while Jesus Montero is going to hit . 280 as well as 280 (pounds) in Triple-A. That's just how it goes for some teams.
AL Central
Photo credit: Leon Halip
Predicted standings:
1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. Indians
4. White Sox
5. Twins
Five Simple truths about the AL Central:
1. The Tigers are still easy picks to win the division, but, good gravy, is that really Andy Dirks hitting fif ... nope, he's hurt. Never mind. That's even worse.
2. The Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante additions were sneaky-brilliant, giving the Royals their best top-two since Johnny Damon and anyone else, but I'll take the under on at least two of the three be-happy-with-average starters in the rotation.
3. It's probably time that I look into what a Zach McAllister is, and why it's a third starter, but I'm stubborn. (Edit: Not that bad! Still not impressed with the Ubaldo-free rotation.)
4. I love the Adam Eaton trade and the Jose Dariel Abreu signing, but this is probably the year Hawk uses a naughty word on air.
5. The Twins did an amazing amount of roster-shuffling for no good reason. They're probably better than the Astros, but they spent scores of millions for that privilege.
Why the first-place team is in first:
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. They're so, so good. That's 12 percent of the roster stacked with three of the very best players in the game. That makes up for a lot of deficiencies.
I can't explain the Doug Fister trade, which still makes me throw things, even though I have absolutely no rooting interest in the Tigers. If there's some sort of bad-trade karma, this could be the year the Tigers fall from grace.
Must Reads
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
The Royals were lucky to get Ervin Santana's surprising comeback season. They won't get it from Bruce Chen. Even if they re-signed Santana, they probably wouldn't have gotten it from him. No, they got the good hitting in the season with the lousy pitching, and they got the lousy hitting in the season with the good pitching. The magnetic poles of suck will probably reverse again.
Team that could futz everything up:
Most of the players who were responsible for the Royals not hitting last year should be better, but the best-case scenarios for Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, and Bruce Chen are for them to be merely average and there's no chance all three of them get there. That's not how pitching works. But if James Shields and Yordano Ventura (and maybe Kyle Zimmer) can make up the difference, the Royals might actually get a division crown to hang on the Wil Myers trade.
AL West
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted standings:
1. Rangers
2. A's
3. Angels
4. Mariners
5. Astros
Five simple truths about the AL West:
1. Prince Fielder will hit a million-billion home runs. He will do in Texas what everyone thought Adrian Gonzalez was going to do in Boston.
2. The A's have a lineup filled with players who weren't a part of season previews like this three years ago. The A's should be making warm pruno, but instead they're always making a craft beer. The dangdest thing.
3. The Angels weren't as bad as their first half last season, but it's hard to see the additions of David Freese and Raul Ibanez making enough difference to overcome the lack of rotation depth.
4. It's the thought, that counts, Mariners. Spending to win with their pitching depth is a fantastic idea. The division is too good, though. A different year, a different division, a different prediction.
5. Everyone laughed at the 1991 Indians, too.
Why the first-place team is in first:
I wrote a draft of this several weeks before the season started, and the A's were here. Then Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin saw specialists on the same March day, and it was enough to shake this prediction up. Parker is out for the year, though Griffin should return early on. The A's have depth -- there might not even be a drop from Griffin to Tommy Milone. But the Rangers were close enough before the injuries to make this a tricky prediction, and the injuries gave them the nod.
The Rangers aren't filling anyone with confidence either, though. Derek Holland is out with knee problems, and Matt Harrison's back continues to torment him. That's going to mean a lot of Joe Saunders, and that didn't work out for the Angels last year.
Looking at the starting lineup, it's easy to get jazzed by Shin-Shoo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Beltre. I'll even give Elvis Andrus decent odds of turning into prime-years Ozzie Smith with the bat. But Alex Rios is hitting fifth - his career OPS+ is 102, the same as his 2013 mark -- and it doesn't get better from there. Yu Darvish makes up for a lot of problems, but it's not like Felix Hernandez makes the Mariners favorites, either.
Must Reads
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
I see the names in the lineup -- Crisp, Donaldson, Moss, Reddick, Norris, etcetera - and I'm not impressed by most of them, not even a little. But it's worked the last two years. Creative platooning makes a difference, but I'm ready to accept that the problem is with me, not them. They're probably that good. Yet, while the young pitching wasn't as magical in 2013 as it was the previous season, it was still pretty danged good. Scott Kazmir is more risk than reward -- he was a whatever-happened-to player at this time last year, and his adjusted ERA brought him to average, and the allocation of resources reminds me of Ben Sheets. I'll keep an open mind. The rest of the pitching is solid, and the depth was enviable before they had to tap into it Not too many organizations could stash Tommy Milone in Triple-A like the A's were planning to before the Parker injury.
Team that could futz everything up:
The Mariners are hard to pick as favorites because we still have that lingering taste of Mariners in our mouth, and it's ... strangely metallic and depressing. The biggest reason no one is picking them, though, is that their bottom of the rotation is made from young pitchers. It's hard to put a lot of faith in those types. They're excellent young pitchers, though, and they don't have to be Jose Fernandez to help the Mariners shock the baseball-loving world.
NL East
Photo credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted standings:
1. Nationals
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Phillies
5. Marlins
Five simple truths about the NL East:
1. The Nationals will be as good as they were supposed to be last year, with Bryce Harper turning into an MVP candidate, if only because it's depressing to think of him slowly devolving into a 100-games-per-year player.
2. The Braves will miss Brian McCann, but the young rotation will put them in the playoff game to make the playoff games, unless there's a tie, which would get them the playoff game to get into the playoff game to get into the playoff games.
3. Even if Noah Syndergaard isn't a factor in 2014, the Mets aren't that bad. The rotation is reasonable, as is the lineup. There could be a big PR push behind the idea: "The 2014 Mets: Mostly Reasonable." I'd watch a game because of that commercial.
4. I so wanted to put the Phillies in last. So, so wanted to. But the front three are Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett. That's a team that's a Marlon Byrd-like fluke or two away from winning more games than expected. Of course, Hamels should probably pitch before I give the Phillies extra credit.
5. Everyone laughed at the 1999 Marlins, too -- except this group is a lot closer to making a difference than the last bunch. Good for them, I say. It's about time something went Jeffrey Loria's way. He's earned it.
Why the first-place team is in first:
WHY WOULD YOU JUST GIVE DOUG FISTER AWAY FOR A LOW-LEVEL PITCHING PROSPECT? WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT WHEN YOUR TEAM IS A PERENNIAL DIVISION-WINNER? HOW CAN YOU BE THAT IN LOVE WITH A PITCHING PROSPECT? WHY C
Sorry. That should read, "Doug Fister makes a good rotation better, and the Nationals are primed to make up for last year's disappointment!" We'll fix it in editing, I'm sure. Last year, the Nats didn't look like a team with any holes, but this year, we mean it. If Adam LaRoche and a rookie fifth starter are a team's biggest problems, that team is probably sound.
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
The Braves' rotation looks quite capable broken. Should have figured some of these previews were going to be a mess before the season started. Here's what I had before Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen went down:
The Braves don't have the luxury of depth that they've enjoyed in previous years. They aren't going to be able to swap pitching widgets out whenever a starter goes down this year. Freddy Garcia pitching in a must-win game was the forward to an awful alternate history if the Braves aren't lucky.
So, if there's a silver lining, it's that the Braves figured this out in March, when Ervin Santana was waiting for them, instead of May, when Garcia really was their last hope. They're still the second-best team in the division.
Team that could futz everything up:
The Phillies are awful. Everyone laugh at the Phillies! Look at that stupid contract they gave to Ryan Howard. Everyone laugh at the stupid Phillies.
The Phillies still have Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and A.J. Burnett is a good complement. Everyone scowl at the stupid Phillies and eye them warily, just to see what they're up to. Keep an eye on the stupid Phillies.
NL Central
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted standings:
1. Cardinals
2. Pirates
3. Brewers
4. Reds
5. Cubs
Five simple truths about the NL Central:
1. The Cardinals are the kid from high school with perfect grades and attendance. They didn't have a safety school; Harvard or Stanford or Oxford or MIT or San Jose State came to them. They looked great when you saw them over the summer, and you have no doubt they'll run the world one day. And you hate them.
2. The Pirates won't be bad, and they'll eventually get some serious reinforcements from the minors. But the team that relies on Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez tends to die with Liriano and Volquez. They blew a chance at an offseason that meant something.
3. Juan Francisco and Mark Reynolds at first for the Brewers is the easiest-to-spot lineup hole in the game. "Couldn't the Brewers have done anything about that?" you ask. Then you remember the Rays desperately clinging onto James Loney. There just wasn't a lot out there. Still, the Brewers have more talent in the rotation and lineup than they get credit for.
4. There has to be one team that completely tumbles. I still love the Reds' young rotation, assuming Mat Latos recovers from his knee injury quickly, but I'm getting a serious 2011 Giants vibe from the lineup. "Do everything, Joey! Go on. Fix it. Fix everything!"
He doesn't even believe in RBI, you know.
5. In 2017, when you first hear the Cubs are facing in the Astros in the World Series, you will stop what you're doing, grab a tablet or computer, and look up the word "callipygian" in an online dictionary. You will not know why you're doing it, but it's because of the subliminal messages implanted in this article. Seriously, though, the Cubs are on the right track. They'll be good. Just not this year. At all.
Why the first-place team is in first:
Look, I have better things to do. They have the hitters and pitchers, and if they don't, they'll create them. The Cardinals had two weaknesses last year: defense and a weak-hitting shortstop. They traded for Peter Bourjos and moved Matt Carpenter to his natural position, then they signed Jhonny Peralta. Stupid Cardinals.
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
The Pirates will have the Bell/Barfield/Moseby outfield of the '10s, but it's not here yet. The rotation seems like an Xbox 360 that's been on for the last two years. You can probably get another year out of it, but the potential for the Red Ring of Death scares the bejeepers out of me.
Team that could futz everything up:
The Reds still have that rotation. As with the Phillies, that counts for a lot. If Billy Hamilton is an on-base dynamo, or if Todd Frazier blossoms, or if Ryan Ludwick has a dead-cat bounce, or if ...
NL West
Photo credit: Cameron Spencer
Predicted standings:
1. Dodgers
2. Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Rockies
5. Padres
Five simple truths about the NL West:
1. The Dodgers are stupid and I hate their stupid Dodger face right in the face. But they're good. They'll have rotating ouchies in the outfield, so the logjam won't be a problem. The lineup is the best in the NL.
2. The Giants had an underwhelming offseason, but the lineup is surprisingly deep. They would be favorites if Tim Lincecum could return to his old self. Hands up, everyone predicting Tim Lincecum to return to his old self!
3. Of all the teams not ranked first or second in these silly predictions, the Diamondbacks are probably likeliest to win their division. Even without Patrick Corbin, they're fairly deep in the rotation, and they have okay-to-great players at every position. They even have a super-fourth outfielder, depending on who doesn't start.
4. The Rockies aren't a bad team. I'd reckon the NL West is one of two divisions (AL East) that could have five plausible winners. But there are enough iffy players in the lineup and enough injury concerns in the rotation to put them fourth comfortably.
5. The Padres aren't a bad team. I'd reckon the ... wait a minute. You get the idea. The Padres are actually a really deep team. They have Nick Hundley as a backup catcher, Kyle Blanks as a backup first baseman, and both Seth Smith and Chris Denorfia as backup outfielders, which seems gaudy.
Must Reads
Why the first-place team is in first:
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu. Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez. Those are the particulars, and the supporting cast is also pretty daunting. If Alexander Guerrero is a Tsuyoshi Nishioka-like bust, we all get to laugh. If he's actually good, though, so...come on, Dodgers. Stop it.
Why (team that could win the division) won't win the division:
The Giants, per FanGraphs, should score slightly fewer runs than the Dodgers, and allow a few more runs. I'm expecting the Giants to allow a lot more runs, if only because after two years of Bad Tim Lincecum, I'm a shaking, cowering mess.
Team that could futz everything up:
All of them, really. All of the teams have paths to a division title that aren't completely twisted and tortuous. The Dodgers are an outstanding team, clearly one of the best in baseball, but all four of the other teams have enough talent to take advantage of fluke seasons and opponent injuries if the opportunity comes up. The Diamondbacks are probably the best bet to futz things up beyond repair, though.
NL Rookie of the Year
Noah Syndergaard
AL Rookie of the Year
Jose Dariel Abreu
NL Cy Young
Cliff Lee
AL Cy Young
Yu Darvish
NL MVP
Bryce Harper
AL MVP
Mike Trout
Wild Card
A's over Red Sox
Pirates over Giants
ALDS
A's over Tigers
Rays over Rangers
NLDS
Dodgers over Nationals
Cardinals over Pirates
ALCS
Rays over A's
NLCS
Cardinals over Dodgers
World Series
Cardinals over Rays
Sorry.