SB Nation - Jamie Moyer

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

Did Philadelphia Give Placido Polanco Too Much? Yes.

Satchel Price — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:24:47 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

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This morning, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reported that the Philadelphia Phillies are close to signing Placido Polanco, who previously played his primary position of second base with the team earlier in the decade, to a three-year, $18M deal to replace Pedro Feliz as the team's everyday third baseman.

While the Raul Ibanez deal has worked out well for the Phillies thus far, it appears that the Phillies have continued their pattern of slightly overpaying veterans as they did with Ibanez, Jamie Moyer and Brad Lidge. While Polanco got an MVP vote this year, it's likely that the Phillies have overpaid slightly for some very underwhelming offensive performances from the hot corner. While Polanco has had some nice offensive seasons in his career, he's hit over .330 twice, he doesn't walk much, has practically no power, and his value on the basepaths is minimal.

He posted a .285/.331/.396 line (.321 wOBA) in Detroit last season, although his BABIP was below his career norm. The biggest issue that I take with the signing is that the Phillies would be signing an above-average defensive second baseman with a slightly below-average bat to play third base. Polanco has a career UZR/150 of 10.0 at second base with a substantial sample size, and while you can't necessarily expect him to be worth 10 runs defensively next season, he's certainly one of the best defenders at second base in the game. The Phillies clearly expect that to translate to second base, where he's actually got a pretty solid statistical track record as well, with the +9.9 UZR/150 in 2426.2 innings at the position.

The Phillies are clearly attempting to replace Feliz's defensive value while going in a different direction offensively. Certainly, adding one of the better contact hitters in the game should help an offense that can get streaky at times, but it seems that the Phillies are giving a pretty large deal to a guy who's shown pretty clear offensive limitations, especially for a corner infielder. If Polanco can continue to be a plus defender at third, then he should come close to giving the Phillies full value, but he hasn't played third base since 2005, and he hasn't played it reguarly since 2002, so it's questionable if he's still capable of replicating that kind of defensive performance.

For a guaranteed $18M, it seems that the Phillies could have done better, looking at defensive sure-things like Beltre and Crede, who both offer significant power potential, who probably would've costed less, although the Phillies likely were sick of the all-or-nothing approach that Pedro Feliz, along with the aforementioned two, would provide. With Howard, Lee, Werth, Hamels, Blanton, Victorino, Madson and Rollins (essentially the entire core with the exception of Utley) all reaching free agency by the end of 2011, it seems odd to want to pay Polanco $6M in 2012 to play third base, although they should presumably have significant payroll flexibility by then unless they give big deal to Lee and Werth next offseason.

Mariners Fan? Jobless? Hate Cancer?

Jeff — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 23:01:08 -0000

Next Tuesday, between 11am - 1pm, Jamie Moyer will be signing the 2010 Moyer Foundation calendar at Seattle Cancer Care Alliance. The calendars, which you can see here, cost $5 and benefit Hutch School for children whose lives have been affected by cancer. You may feel disinclined to spend $5 on a signed calendar somewhere else when you can spend $5 on a signed baseball card from eBay without leaving your seat, but if you buy a card instead of a calendar, you're basically ruining a child's life, and Jesus, man, that's sick, you're sick, I don't know how you live with yourself.

Seriously, $5 to help some kids and get a little face time with one of the most uniquely successful athletes in the history of professional sports. Plus, autograph! And I guess people still use calendars. If you have the money, time, and transportation, there's no reason not to go.

How Did They Do That?

dajafi — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:02:53 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Ryan Madson: last man standing of the Phillies' 2008 pitching stalwarts. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended.

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years.

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies.

In '08, Hamels, Myers and Moyer combined for 40 wins and 613.2 innings in the regular season (plus 6 wins and 65.2 innings through the three rounds of the playoffs). Lidge pitched to a superlative ERA+ of 225; Madson (144) and Romero (160) were great as well, and came up even bigger in the playoffs. A year later, Hamels went from "Darth Vader in spikes," as the Braves broadcasters (in perhaps the sole contribution to humankind) once dubbed him, to a young pitcher struggling with command and composure. Myers looked like he might challenge Bert Blyleven's single season home run record through a middling month and a half, then got hurt. Moyer pitched his way out of the rotation, remade himself as a surprisingly effective long reliever, then suffered a season-ending injury in September. They combined for 26 wins and 426.1 innings during the season, and Hamels added another victory in October. Lidge... well, you know about Lidge: his 2009 campaign was arguably the worst any closer has ever suffered through. His ERA+ was *59*. That's not a misprint. Romero missed the first fifty games of the season with a suspension for taking illegal supplements, briefly returned and was middling, then got hurt and missed the last month plus the playoffs. Only Madson stood tall again, with an ERA+ of 131. They were the anti-Braves.

That the Phils came within two wins of raising another championship banner anyway has to be credited mostly to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., whose late July trade for Cliff Lee and bargain-price signing of Pedro Martinez saved the rotation and who gave the bullpen a crucial boost in the person of Chan Ho Park. Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee, who got great work from J.A. Happ and small but important contributions from the likes of Antonio Bastardo, Rodrigo Lopez, Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick over the course of the year, deserve kudos as well.

It's unclear what, if anything, this means for the future. Certainly there's every reason to hope Hamels will return to form, and Lidge and Romero seem decent bets to rebound from their miserable 2009 campaigns even if neither recaptures the heights of '08. Myers is a free agent who might or might not be back; Moyer will turn 47 this month and will be attempting to rebound from a fairly severe injury. But if you'd tried to sell the story eight months ago that the 2009 Phils would see five of their top six pitchers from the championship run essentially melt down, yet still win the pennant and take the World Series to six games, you likely would have had few believers.

Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape.

Rubie Q — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:00:42 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Is CC Sabathia enough to shift the tale of the tape toward the Yankees?

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You're a discerning baseball fan. You're an intelligent baseball fan. You can seamlessly work 'WAR' and 'wOBA' and 'FIP' into a barroom/restroom debate and impress the pants off of whomever you're talking to. You're ready to get your last fix of baseball before the long, cold winter of rampant speculation -- followed, of course, by the spring of irrational exuberance -- but, you're wondering: How do the Yankees and Phillies stack up against each other ... in matters beyond the box score?

You're in the right place, friend. After the jump: Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape. (Note: we're required by federal law to note that this breakdown is for entertainment purposes only. However, should you choose to use this information in a friendly, handshake wager with an acquaintance: God help you.)

THE MASCOTS: WHAT'S A YANKEE? WHAT'S A PHILLIE?

YANKEES: Depends where you're living. If you're in the South, it's a person who lived in the Union during the War of Northern Aggression. (Er, Civil War. Sorry.) If you're in Europe, it's all of us across the pond in the States. If you're in Boston, it's an [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] [CENSORED] who loves to [CENSORED] his [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] like a typical [CENSORED] [CENSORED] and sometimes invites his [CENSORED] [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to join in, when he's not [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to pictures of Derek Jeter. [CENSORED].

PHILLIES: It's just an abbreviation of "Philadelphia." Lay-zee. I'm glad that trend didn't catch on; I wouldn't want to follow the Milwaukee Walkies. (Or Milwaukee Millies.) Though it would be fun to make fun of the Minnesota Minnies. (Side note to our friends in Minneapolis: send me a note next April from your open-air stadium. Give me an update on Joe Mauer's frostbite. I'm sure the sight of icicles forming on his sideburns will be stunning.)

ADVANTAGE: Yankees.

UNDERRATED PLAYER:

YANKEES: To the extent that any Yankee can be underrated (and, at this point, I feel like I know more about Phil Coke (favorite band: Genesis, but when Peter Gabriel was in the group, not when Phil Collins took over the vocals and they started churning out crap like I Can't Dance) and Phil Hughes (favorite movie: A Walk In The Clouds) than I do about members of my immediate family), I guess it'd be Nick Swisher. Did you know he put together a 3.7 WAR year? (Yes, TheJay, I know you did. I'm talking about the non-cyborg members of BCB.)

PHILLIES: Chase Utley. Yeah, I know, he gets plenty of pub, but I've seen people (cough Jon Heyman cough) voting Ryan Howard ahead of Utley in the MVP voting. This, in a word, is insane. (Don’t believe me? Talk to Jordan. I believe he’s prepared a multi-volume treatise on this topic, in case you’re looking for bedtime reading.) .282/.397/.509 from a second baseman with plus defense? Yes, please. Where do I sign up?

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

NUMBER OF "TRUE YANKEES" ON THE TEAM:

YANKEES: Four. (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera. That's it. The rest of yous can't hold a candle to Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis.)

PHILLIES: None.

ADVANTAGE: Yanks.

TREASURED TEAM RELIC:

YANKEES: They've got a whole monument park. Pick anything out there behind the left field wall.

PHILLIES: Jamie Moyer.

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

PLAYER WHO MOST RESEMBLES A WWE SUPERSTAR:

YANKEES: This is tough. I'll be honest: I really just wanted to talk about the Phillies on this one. The best I could come up with is CC and the WWE's Mark Henry:

via z.about.com via www.criticalbench.com

PHILLIES: Jayson Werth. I'll bet you a two-liter that he's moonlighting as the WWE's Edge.

via www3.allaroundphilly.com via www.poptower.com

Eerie, ain't it?

(Wait, hold on: I've got another Werth picture for you:

via www.baltimoresun.com

AWESOME. Kinda looks like Matt Damon in The Informant (sans mustache, of course), doesn't it? Jeyson Werth is like Hannibal on The A Team.)

BIG ADVANTAGE: Phils.

POLITICIAN/STATESMAN WHO LOVED THE LADIES:

YANKEES: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer.

PHILLIES: Founding Father Benjamin Franklin (though rumors of his demise due to syphilis are, reportedly, greatly exaggerated).

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

And, most importantly:

BREWERS CONNECTION:

YANKEES: Besides CC, there's Melky Cabrera. He was almost a Brewer this season, although (legend has it) we would have had to take on the bloated corpse of Kei Igawa to complete the deal. (And, speaking of Igawa, here's a question I've been mulling for the past 12 seconds: if the Brewers had traded for Igawa, they probably wouldn't have signed Braden Looper, and we would've been spared the historically awful season Looper put together. [Cue Mykenk.] HOW-EVAH, Igawa only went 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA in AAA this year, and made $4 million, plus the $8 million he's owed for 2010 and 2011 Which option is preferable -- or, to be more accurate, slightly less painful?

PHILLIES: With World Series hero Geoff Jenkins put out to stud, the best I can come up with is former Brewer Matt Stairs. That's still pretty good, I think. I love Matt Stairs. Tell me you wouldn't drink Labatt Blue with Matt Stairs. He'd drink you under the table, for sure, and you might wake up listening to Bryan Adams and watching "The Stanley Cup: 100 Years of Glory," but still: I'd party with Matt Stairs. If nothing else, maybe you could get enough Labatt in him that he'd say this again.

(Oh, wait. There is another connection: Davey Lopes. Ugh. Now I have to think about the Davey Lopes Era again. That was a fun time, wasn't it? That reminds me: remember, towards the end of the season, when Macha had that quote about his door always being open, and that the players could come talk to him whenever they wanted to -- with the strong implication being that the players weren't coming to talk to him, and that Macha wasn't going out of his way to talk to them, either? You know who else was famous for not talking to his players? Davey Lopes. Ugh, again.)

ADVANTAGE: Push (though I don't think it's out of the question to root for CC in this series).

So, there you have it. Final breakdown: Yankees 2, Phillies 4 (with one tie), and it's not even that close. Go Phillies!

NLDS Preview: Pitching - Where Frank Azar isn't the only Strong Arm

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 00:49:41 -0000

Are you all ready to have a little Phun? Or are we all set for a massive PhailPhest?

Starting September, the Phillies were sitting at 76-53, comfortably in charge of the NL East, watching the Braves and Marlins scuffle against each other to try and catch up to the Rockies. Since that point, they went 17-16 to finish the season with a final tally of 93-69, 6.0 games up on Florida and 7.0 up on Atlanta. During that stretch, the Phillies outscored their opponents by a tally of 155 to 146, giving them a Pythagorean W-L of 18-16, or essentially they underplayed their own performance by 1 game.

But seeing how we're here to talk about pitching, let's look at the Phillies' staff down the stretch. During the stretch, opponents batted a collective .271/.330/.414 against Phillies pitching, or about league average in terms of OPS+. The collective pitching staff allowed 4 or fewer runs 19 times and 5 or more 13 times.

Incidentally, the Rockies' Runs per Game is a scratch below 5, at 4.96.

But the staff has sprung a few leaks, which we'll touch on in just a second.

The Phillies plan on throwing 3 tough lefties at the Rockies in an effort to take the NLDS. Everybody is terrified and upset and "oh woe is us, left handed pitching it is our weakest of weaknesses!" Well, I'm not so sold on that concept. We certainly hit RHP better than LHP, and much of that is thanks to the strong lefties in the lineup, but what DO we actually do against LHP vs RHP?

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
vs RHP as RH	.250	.318	.406	.724	99
vs RHP as LH	.276	.371	.479	.849	118
vs LHP as RH	.254	.337	.447	.784	103
vs LHP as LH	.252	.331	.402	.733	109
vs RHP	.264	.346	.445	.791	110
vs LHP	.253	.335	.430	.765	103

Now, the number I'd like to direct your attention to is the one in the bottom-right-hand-corner. That 103. It may seem somewhat insignificant, and definitely smaller than the 110 right above it, but that 103 means that we hit left handers better than the league average against left handers. Relative to us, we hit them worse, obviously, but we are an above-average offense facing RHP or LHP. Let that be a nugget of faith and hope for you all.

Join after the jump and we'll start grading the Phillies.

The Arms: B

Rotation: B

In the months of September/October, the Phillies rotation has posted an ERA of 4.39 and a FIP of 3.92. That's good for 9th in the Majors in FIP and 14th in ERA.

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	ERA	FIP
Cole Hamels	8.16	1.94	4.20	0.39	1.12	3.69	2.56
Cliff Lee	7.79	1.04	7.50	1.04	1.44	5.45	3.30
Kyle Kendrick	5.56	2.38	2.33	0.79	1.41	3.18	4.07
Pedro Martinez	7.22	1.57	4.60	1.26	1.26	3.14	4.25
J.A. Happ	8.87	2.01	4.40	2.01	1.66	4.84	4.71
Joe Blanton	8.15	4.33	1.88	1.27	1.50	5.35	4.74
Jamie Moyer	4.05	0.90	4.50	1.80	1.05	4.50	5.25

Now, the rotation still gets the higher grade because they've been pretty awesome for the majority of the season. Even though the ERAs of a couple of key pitchers may be a bit high, the FIPs, for the most part, are still in the range of "pretty good", but what's huge still are the K/BB ratios for all of the starters not named Joe Blanton. What that tells us is that while runs are crossing, the pitchers are still doing a lot of their job the right way still.

Bullpen: B-

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brad Lidge	0-8	67	0	0	0	31	11	58.2	72	51	47	11	34	61	7.21	1.81

Woooo hoo hoo, that's a fun line to look at there. This is the guy Charlie Manuel will be handing the ball to in the 9th inning. Knowing the Rockies' propensity to stage massive heroic comebacks, it could make for an incredibly interesting series.

Even accounting for Lidge, the Phills' bullpen has posted a 3.79 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, essentially showing us that they've earned every run they've given up. Amusingly enough, if you pull outBrad Lidge's failmotronic performance during that time, the bullpen's ERA drops from 3.79 to 3.31, FIP from 3.80 to 3.76. Lidge's FIP was actually decent, if you look at it, but that just kind of reinforces how FIP doesn't really tell the whole story. What we should remember is that underneath Lidge's terrible performances this season, his peripheral numbers are still pretty decent, so taking him lightly will not be a wise decision. In the meantime, Ryan Madson has been pretty decent as well, so we should definitely be prepared to face either of these fellers.

Ryan Madson

#46 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-6

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Aug 28, 1980

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ryan Madson	5-5	79	0	0	0	10	6	77.1	73	29	28	7	22	78	3.26	1.23

GAME 1

Wednesday, October 7, 12:37 MDT

Ubaldo Jimenez

#38 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height:6-4

Weight:200

Bats:R

Throws:R

Born:Jan 22, 1984

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	15-12	33	33	1	0	0	0	218.0	183	87	84	13	85	198	3.47	1.23

vs.

Cliff Lee

#34 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 30, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Cliff Lee	7-4	12	12	3	1	0	0	79.2	80	35	30	7	10	74	3.39	1.13

Despite getting a bit wild over the final month of the season, Ubaldo Jimenez turned in his 6 starts for a 3-2 record with a 4.17 ERA and 3.37 FIP, while striking out 40 and walking 16 (2.50 K/BB). During those 6 starts, Jimenez whipped up 4 QS (2 of which had 7.0+ IP and <3 ER. The other two starts at least featured a combined K/BB of 13/5., or 2.60.

Lee, however, has proven to be somewhat mortal. Over his past 6 starts, he's only recorded 1 quality start (a 6-hit complete game shutout against the Nats), 2 starts allowing 6 or more runs, and 2 starts of 4.0 innings or less. That all said, he has also a 7.50 K/BB during that time....so he's still pretty lethal. Attacks of opportunity will be critical, converting any baserunners we can get, and at the very least, working his pitch count.

Favors: Phillies, slightly.

GAME 2

Thursday, October 8, 12:37 MDT

Aaron Cook

#28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height:6-3

Weight:215

Bats:R

Throws:R

Born:Feb 08, 1979

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Aaron Cook 11-6 28 27 1 1 0 0 158.0 175 76 73 19 47 78 4.16 1.41

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Aaron Cook	11-6	28	27	1	1	0	0	158.0	175	76	73	19	47	78	4.16	1.41

vs.

Cole Hamels

#35 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-3

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Dec 27, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Cole Hamels	10-11	32	32	2	2	0	0	193.2	206	95	93	24	43	168	4.32	1.29

Aaron Cook is getting his first taste of the NLDS in his career. Sidelined for awhile with a shoulder injury, Aaron Cook has bounced back very strongly, tossing 5 scoreless against the Cardinals and 8 innings of 1-run, 4-hit ball against the Brewers.

Meanwhile Hamels had 7 starts between the first of September and now, putting up 4 QS, and his 3 most recent starts all featured 3 or more runs. During the final month and change, Hamels posted a 3.69 ERA and a 2.56 FIP to complement a 4.20 K/BB ratio.

Favors: Phillies, moderately

So finally, let's take a quick check and see who's on a streak.

Hot Blooded, Check 'em and see

Ryan Howard (Howard? Hot in September? Never!) - .395/.458/.744/1.203, 4HR, 48PA

Jimmy Rollins - .318/.375/.591/.966, 2HR, 48PA

They're as cold as ice

Chase Utley - .083/.171/.139, 3-for-36.

They will let you down, They will make you hurt

See Below

Philadelphia Phillies Injuries

15-DAY

PLAYER INJURY TYPE INJURY DATE

John Ennis elbow 08/31/2009

60 DAY DL / OUT FOR THE SEASON

PLAYER INJURY TYPE INJURY DATE

Jamie Moyer abdomen 09/30/2009

J.C. Romero forearm 09/29/2009

Chan Ho Park hamstring 09/17/2009

PLAYER	INJURY TYPE	INJURY DATE
John Ennis	elbow	08/31/2009

PLAYER	INJURY TYPE	INJURY DATE
Jamie Moyer	abdomen	09/30/2009
J.C. Romero	forearm	09/29/2009
Chan Ho Park	hamstring	09/17/2009

Cliff Lee vs. Cole Hamels: Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 10:41:33 -0000

In his last 21 starts, (Joe) Blanton is 9-4 with a 2.78 ERA, allowing only 125 hits in 139 1/3 innings. And, yeah, that might make him the Phillies' best pitcher this season.

Only it really won't. From the Philadelphia Daily News, and only 8 days ago

First a disclaimer. The FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers featured above don't have the National League constant adjustment figured in. So if that ruffles you in any way, add 3.22 to the numbers you see above and wonder afterwards if it was worth the effort.

And of course, low FIP is good. High FIP is bad. So those jutting peaks of a mountainscape you see above are indicative of some pretty rough down the stretch performances. Of course, in seasonal FIP calculations, those numbers don't weigh as heavily as the good start - less innings pitched in all that. But in the case of a start by start basis, it works.

What's the most telling story that jumps out from this chart? That both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels have had trouble in a couple of stretches since the trade deadline? That's really no surprise to anyone even remotely close to following the organization ... I'm pretty sure with just a little bit of digging we could find any number of stories decrying the end of both of them as an ace, dated within 6 weeks of each other. And probably a couple dozen cases begging Charlie Manuel to start J.A. Happ, Pedro Martinez, Joe Blanton, heck, probably Jamie Moyer as their #1 or #2. So that's been done.

Maybe some normalization as we get closer to the current date? Those numbers at the end are awfully close to their career stats. That certainly seems reasonable.

What I see (small sample asterisk firmly attached) is an odd pattern where neither player has managed to be consistently effective at the same time. And there's really no rhyme nor reason to it. Both players pitched against the same team in the same park with roughly the same lineup 7 out of the 11 times (also of note: a reason that using FIPx wasn't really necessary). There's no dramatic split issue to face. I find this sort of comforting.

The information we as fans have found wanting (the type of analysis that led us to be here, now in the first place) drastically overreacts to these sort of odd sways and shifts, constantly seeking some sort of sign that there is either doom or absolution on the horizon, every hit a sign of weakness, every strikeout one of invincibility. Things have a tendency to even out. Regression. Predictability. Comfort. It doesn't just make our hobby easier, it makes it possible. No correlation means no indication of future success, and that goes for both scouts and analysts. That means you grab 9 guys off the street and give them bats and gloves. That's a bad sport, albeit with some excellent contest prizes (fifth caller is the right fielder!).

But yet in a week it's like we play a different game. I have never in my adult lifetime been a fan of a playoff-bound baseball team. That alone carries it's own special brand of angst, I suppose, but in this particular case I am relieved. Because within the confines of a small series that will make or break the general perceptions of a team or player for decades to come, this sort of seemingly random statistical anomaly would absolutely terrify me. One only has to scan down the Phillies roster until you get to Chan Ho Park to remember the sort of brutal legacy that could be looming.

If this sort of short term meltdown happens in the playoffs for Cole Hamels, he might be safe. He still has some goodwill built up. But anyone else? You can imagine the headlines. Cliff Lee? Couldn't cut it on the biggest stage. A compiler. Joe Blanton? Too heavy. Poor conditioning made him wear down. (And seriously, isn't Joe Blanton like a year and a half overdue to give up like 9 HR in a game?) J.A. Happ? Charlie Manuel should've known better than to play a rookie in a big spot. Heaven forbid, Chan Ho Park again? I'm not sure polite society would allow the reprinting of what could spew forth. It would be lazy sportswriter heaven, and they'd pick his bones clean before morning.

And that's just one team. Pitchers (particularly the top 2 starters) bear an unbalanced portion of post-season success. And both of these guys do come packaged with the expectation of dominance, and anything less could be, if not eternally damaging, certainly nagging. More superstitious front offices could cost these guys millions. So, as baseball fans we probably know better than to hope for cooler heads to prevail(especially, say, the Philadelphia, New York or Boston fans). But as a (hopefully) reasonable and pragmatic subset of baseball fan, it's probably a good idea to have the ice packs ready.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Justin Bopp & Walter Fulbright | Data Source:Fangraphs.com

Dan Uggla hits home run number 30

craig — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:48:46 -0000

Dan Uggla keeps etching his name in the record books.

Marlins Get your Marlins Tickets now! second baseman Dan Uggla nailed a solo homer off Marlins killer Jamie Moyer in the second inning of the nightcap for his 30th of the season. He is the second Marlin to record three seasons with 30 or more homers, having hit 31 in 2007 and 32 last year. Ex-Marlin Miguel Cabrera is the other. Cody Ross added his career-high 23rd homer later.

All of the above is true, but Danny became the first Marlin to hit 30 home runs in three consecutive seasons. Which incidentally are the only three season he has played for the Marlins or in the majors for that matter. Now if I had some time to do the research on Rule 5 draft picks hitting 30 home runs in consecutive years, and I don't, I'm guessing he owns that record too.

Punchless: Marlins 3, Phillies 0

WholeCamels — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:31:58 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Cody Ross, getting awfully close to a full-on Al Jolson. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

Browse more photos »

Anibal Sanchez dominated the Phillies tonight, going eight innings and allowing just two hits (both to Chase Utley) as the Marlins took the nightcap of today's doubleheader by a score of 3-0.

Jamie Moyer pitched relatively well, as is his custom against the Marlins, allowing three runs on the night, including solo homers by Dan Uggla and Cody Ross.

Not much else to say here, except that the Phillies Magic Number still sits at 5, as the Braves beat the Mets. In the race for home-field advantage, the Phillies lost ground to both the Cardinals and the Dodgers, both winners.

Finale to the series tomorrow. Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies.

What is an "Ace" and Where Does the Washington Nationals' John Lannan Fit In?

Dave at Nats News Network — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:52:42 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

8 months ago: Washington Nationals' John Lannan pitches against Atlanta Braves' Chipper Jones during the first inning of a baseball game on Saturday, April 11, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

An recent anonymous comment to another blog went something like this: "The Nats need to go out and find a #1 and #2 type starter so John Lannan can be a No. 3 and win 15 games next year."

That got me to thinking about several things.

1) If the typical fan of the Washington Nationals thinks a #3 starter should win 15 games a year, no wonder only 15,000 show up to see the Nats play even the good teams.

2) Why does that same fan automatically use wins to measure...eh, forget it. One battle at a time.

2) Just how many 15 game winners are there in the major leagues?

3) Where does John Lannan fit into that equation?

So I spent a little time on a baseball statistic website that will remain nameless. Currently, in the N.L. there are exactly five pitchers with 15 or more wins: Adam Wainwright, STL (18-8), Chris Carpenter, STL (16-4), Jason Marquis, COL (15-11), Josh Johnson, FLA (15-4), Jorge de la Rosa, COL (15-9). There are six at 14 and six at 13. With two starts for most pitchers remaining, you have to figure no more than half of those with 13 or more will hit 15.

So we're looking at 11 pitchers -- tops -- to win 15 or more games this season in the National League. This is consistent with wins totals the last several seasons.

What does this mean? Well, to start with, the anonymous commenter was a dope.

A 15-game winner IS a #1 starter in the N.L.. If there is less than one 15-game winner per team in the league, then that's our "magic number" to look for when describing a #1 starter. The days of pitchers winning 20 games is, for the most part, a thing of the past. It happens on occasion (like seeing Haley's comet), but it's not what pitchers should be judged against.

As stated before, I'm not going to get all wonky on the numbers and provide evidence that wins are a lousy way to measure a pitcher's effectiveness. Lots of others have done it more eloquently that I would. Go google it -- when you finish reading Federal Baseball, anyway -- if you're still interested and don't want to take my word for it.

The really interesting thing I discovered though, while looking these numbers up, is that of the 17 pitchers with 13 or more wins this season in the N.L., 12 of them come from just five teams: STL (3), COL (3), ATL (2), SF (2), MIL (2).

So in our equation, we've determined that 15 games won in a season makes you and "Ace", only about half the teams in the league have one (or more).

It's no shock, of course, to find St. Louis and Colorado in the list of teams with big winners. They are, after all, two of the four N.L. playoff teams. And Atlanta and San Fran both have winning records, due largely to the success of their starting pitching. Again, chicken-and-egg stuff.

So let's bring this back to Lannan. I'm prefacing all of the rest of this commentary based on the fact that I love John Lannan as a pitcher. He has a great idea of what he wants to do, stays within himself, and gives everything he's got every time he's on the mound. At 24, he pitches like he's 34. In a good way.

The guy is 9-12 in 192.1 IP in 31 starts with a 4.07 ERA. HIs K rate (3.7 per nine) is the lowest of 82 pitchers in the major leagues with nine or more wins. It's actually down from last season's 5.8, which is bad but tolerable.

Lannan's BABIP this season is at .280, which is a little low compared to league average (.299 this season), but right at what he's established as his norm (.277, .272, .280 in his three seasons). This shows us a pitcher that teams have a tough time "squaring up" on, for the most part.

So the anonymous poster that thinks Lannan is a 15-win pitcher is probably dreaming. But Lannan's career 108 ERA+ shows he should be a .500 pitcher, capable of sitting at the back of a staff, eat innings, win 10-12 games a year and give your team a chance to win when he's on the mound. Essentially, he has learned to be Jamie Moyer, 10 years before Moyer himself figured it out in his career.

And it the Nats come through on promises of shoring up their middle infield defense and a full season of Nyjer Morgan patrolling center field? Maybe, just maybe, Lannan can dream of a winning records, with a couple of breakthrough years like Moyer enjoyed. But Lannan's got to get his K-rate back up in the 5.5 range like in 2008.

Cause as soft as Moyer was, even he struck out five and a half per nine.

But let's not make Lannan into something he's not, simply because he's the best that the Nats have right now. Let's just let him be who he is and enjoy watching a guy pitch -- as opposed to throw -- every time he takes the hill.

SB Nation - Jamie Moyer

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Did Philadelphia Give Placido Polanco Too Much? Yes.

Mariners Fan? Jobless? Hate Cancer?

How Did They Do That?

Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape.

NLDS Preview: Pitching - Where Frank Azar isn't the only Strong Arm

The Arms: B

Rotation: B

Bullpen: B-

Ryan Madson

#46 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

GAME 1

Wednesday, October 7, 12:37 MDT

Ubaldo Jimenez

#38 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Cliff Lee

#34 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

GAME 2

Thursday, October 8, 12:37 MDT

Aaron Cook #28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies Height:6-3 Weight:215 Bats:R Throws:R Born:Feb 08, 1979 W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP 2009 - Aaron Cook 11-6 28 27 1 1 0 0 158.0 175 76 73 19 47 78 4.16 1.41

Aaron Cook

#28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Cole Hamels

#35 / Pitcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies Injuries

15-DAY

60 DAY DL / OUT FOR THE SEASON

Cliff Lee vs. Cole Hamels: Graph of the Day

Dan Uggla hits home run number 30

Punchless: Marlins 3, Phillies 0

What is an "Ace" and Where Does the Washington Nationals' John Lannan Fit In?

Aaron Cook

#28 / Pitcher / Colorado Rockies

Height:6-3

Weight:215

Bats:R

Throws:R

Born:Feb 08, 1979

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Aaron Cook 11-6 28 27 1 1 0 0 158.0 175 76 73 19 47 78 4.16 1.41