SB Nation - Martin Prado

Braves Not Interested In Big Name Outfielders

gondeee — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 21:22:06 -0000

A couple of disappointing and revealing tweets from David O'Brien about the Braves direction post Vaz-trade (first):

[Matt Holliday is] too pricey for Braves, but there's at least a slim chance they make a run at [Jason Bay].

Scratch that Bay possibility for Braves. I was just assured that Braves are out of that pursuit.

"Assured!" Nuts! This just puts the dagger further in this already disappointing day. We've got the dough to go after Bay... well, that's only somewhat true. I've taken a realistic look at the Braves salary situation, and we've got the dough this year to go after big-money free agents, but after this year we start to get hamstrung with our salary commitments. In 2011, Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado, and Jair Jurrjens all enter their first arbitration year. That same year, our currently signed stars, Brian McCann and Nate McLouth, see big raises in their salaries. All of this with virtually no money coming off our books from any other players.

If there's one thing we're about to learn from the way in which the Braves conduct themselves throughout the rest of this off-season, it's that they are very aware of this fact, and they're not going to commit any more long term money to free agents. I believe all that we're going to get this off-season are one-year stop gap fillers until Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman are fully ready.

This is why I expect the Braves to sign Xavier Nady before the end of the year, and maybe one other small to medium sized free agent, but we're not getting into the big names or even the second tier names since the players in both of those categories would require deals of more than a year.

It's a cold reality Braves fans, but we pretty much have our team, save for one or two more folks, none of whom will be big names.

Fantasy Baseball: Profiling Yesterday's Non-Tenders

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates closer Matt Capps pitches against the Cincinnati Reds in the ninth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Yesterday was the last day that teams could offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, and there were some interesting non-tenders for sure. Let's take a look:

Matt Capp, CL, PITT

The Pirates will now go into spring training looking for a closer, unless they veer off course and sign a free agent like Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, or Kevin Gregg. They also could dangle Andy Laroche in a deal for a closer since they traded for Akinori Iwamura to play second base. That assumes that Pedro Alvarez wins the Pirates 3B job out of spring training, otherwise Laroche will be the Pirates 3Bman. Here is what MLB.com said about the Pirates closer situation:

In the meantime, the Pirates now have even more work to do to construct a bullpen that had already lost Jesse Chavez in an offseason trade. One thing the Pirates do seem confident in, though, is that their next closer could come in-house, as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek are likely to garner consideration for the role.

I don't see either Hanrahan or Meek keeping the job. Capps Is coming off his worst year of his career as he ended the year with a 5.80 ERA. Could the Phillies take a chance on Capps to backup Lidge?

Jonny Gomes, OF, CIN

Gomes is coming off a season where he went 20-51-.267-.338-.541-.879. Gomes could be a nice pickup for a team that wants to platoon his vs. left-handed pitchers as he hit .307-.369-.545-.914 against lefties in 2009. In his career, Gomes has hit .274-.369-.517-.885 vs lefties.

it appears the Reds will go into spring training with an open competition in LF with Wladimir Balentein, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier vying for the spot.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ATL

Johnson is coming off a down year where he lost the second base job to Martin Prado in Atlanta. He went 8-29-7-.229-.303-.389-.692 in 2009 after going 12-69-11-.287-.349-.446-.795 in 2008. Johnson's BABIP in 2009 was a very low .247, much lower than his career BABIP average of .311. There were some positives in his 2009 season, as he lowered his K% from 18.4% to 15.6% and increased his BB% from 8.5% to 9.3%.

Johnson could be a nice sleeper in 2009 should he land a second base job. If he can bring his BABIP close to .300 and continue to show improved plate discipline, he could have another season like he did in 2008. Do you hear me Ned?

Poll

Which player has a better chance at landing a starting job in 2010?

Braves release Kelly Johnson, bound for St. Louis?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:04:11 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

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The Braves decided to non-tender Kelly Johnson, who can now sign with any team Sunday.

Johnson put up solid numbers in 2007-2008, but couldn't get comfortable at the plate, hitting just .213 before losing his job to Martin Prado.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kelly Johnson	106	303	47	68	20	3	8	29	32	54	7	2	.224	.303	.389

The Braves nearly dealt Johnson to the Cardinals for Ryan Ludwick, but backed out to keep him. Ludwick regressed from his 2008 numbers, but still put up decent power numbers.

The Cardinals have Schumaker at second, but with the opening in left presumably going to someone other than Matt Holliday, Johnson could be brought in at a low price and play second and left, rotation with the now-versatile Schumaker.

Braves' Kelly Johnson in High Demand

gondeee — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:46:09 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson is apparently a coveted commodity this off-season.

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The Winter Meetings are most definitely under way. We've already had our first crazy rumor that lasted less than half a day before another team acquired the player in question. Bobby Cox held a press conference at 2pm today, and despite my hopes they did not show it on-line on the MLB channel. Luckily Bill Shanks is there and knows the value of live-tweeting such an event. Among his updates this one stands out:

Cox: clubs knocking on the door for Kelly Johnson

Bobby doesn't usually give up much in the way of trade or free agent info, so for him to say that must mean that regardless of what he says there's still tons of value on KJ. Suddenly the Braves have a ton of tradeable pieces. Here are some other highlights from Shanks' tweeting of the Cox presser:

Cox: we'll give Heywatd a chance

Cox: Braves not in on Bay

Cox: Wags the closer "no matter what"

Cox: Martin Prado could play anywhere

Some of that is very Bobby Coxian, in that it's just simple praise of his players, like the quotes about Martin Prado and Jason Heyward. Of course Billy Wagner will be the closer, he's the veteran and is a much better closer than Soriano or Saito. The price for Jason Bay seems to be going upwards quickly, so I can see why the Braves took themselves out of the running for him early on.

It was mentioned earlier, but until Rafael Soriano makes his decision, the Braves probably won't make any moves. So while there will still be rumors today, don't expect any moves. Soriano's agents arrived this morning and are expected to meet with all interested parties before conferring with Rafael about whether or not to accept arbitration. My guess is that they will receive enough interest to recommend he reject arbitration.

Take the Braves out of the running for these free agents

gondeee — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 00:28:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Was it Divine intervention that prevented the Atlanta Braves from signing Rafael Furcal... or just his agents.

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Last off-season the Atlanta Braves announced they had come to terms with free agent Rafael Furcal on a three-year contract... but less than 24-hours later Furcal had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the aftermath of that episode, Braves President John Schuerholtz stated that the Braves would never again do business with Furcal's agents, the Wasserman Group, headed by super-agent Arn Tellem.

As a side note to this, if we had signed Furcal, then we would have moved Kelly Johnson to left field, we never would have signed Garret Anderson, and Martin Prado may never have emerged as a bona fide major league starter at second base. And we might have traded Yunel Escobar somewhere. Things tend to work out for the best sometimes, as Furcal layed an egg in 2009.

Here are the free agents this off-season who are represented by the Wasserman Group, and are therefore off-limits to the Braves (courtesy of MLBTR):

Wilson Betemit
Aaron Boone
Nomar Garciaparra
Jason Giambi
John Grabow
Rich Harden
Shawn Hill
Reed Johnson
Jason Kendall
Hideki Matsui
Jason Michaels
Guillermo Mota
Vicente Padilla
Wily Mo Pena
Joel Pineiro
Matt Treanor
Randy Wolf
Omar Vizquel

I must say that there's no one I really want on that list, so for this year at least, no harm, no foul.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 16:45:03 -0000

Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on October 25th:

In the Press...

There were some suggestions by beat writers David O'Brien and Mark Bowman about the off-season direction the Braves will take.
Talking Chop first reported that Jason Heyward was sidelined with a leg injury, which was later reported by the Braves.com site.
The Braves "got the ball rolling" on contract extension talks with Tim Hudson.
The Braves hired another former member of the Orioles front office.
The AJC reported that Martin Prado is likely going to be the Braves 2010 opening day second baseman.

At Talking Chop...

The Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll showed that Braves fans are already feeling better about the off-season.
We reviewed the 2009 season of third baseman Chipper Jones.
The 2009 seasons of Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, and Garret Anderson were also reviewed.
Matt reviewed the top-5 Braves third base prospects and the top-5 left field prospects.
Matt Diaz chatted with fans on ESPN, we wrapped up the most interesting Qs & As.
The bloggers of Talking Chop conducted a round table on the third basemen in the Braves organization.
We continue to recap the Braves prospects' performances in the games of the baseball fall and winter leagues, here and here.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

GoBravesNY told us about prospect Jeff Lyman's Arizona Fall League blog, and cbwilk told us about L.V. Ware's blog.
justincredubil02 informed everyone how to get free Braves merchandise.
Dale Murphy for HOF gave us his top-5 best and top-5 worst Braves trades.
GoBravesNY asked everyone what their screen names meant, mine (gondeee) is a play on my last name, Gandy.
PWHjort expanded upon a link from the USS Mariner about roster construction theory.

Upcoming Events...

The first ever Brian McCann Celebrity Softball Game is set for November 13th... details here. We're making this a bit of a Talking Chop outing, so everyone get your tickets!
The Gwinnett Braves have a whole slate of off-season events planned at their ballpark, the list is here.

The Atlanta Braves Weekly Wrap

gondeee — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:42:27 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Atlanta Braves' starting pitcher Tim Hudson says he wants to in Atlanta, and would give the team a hometown discount on his contract.

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Here's a look at the major stories in the world of the Atlanta Braves for the week ending on October 18th:

In the Press...

The Braves lost longtime scouting director Roy Clark to the Nationals, then promoted Tony DeMacio as their new director of scouting.
After there was initially a report that Tim Hudson was going to leave the Braves and opt for free agency, he came out and denied that report, saying that he would accept a "hometown discount" to stay with Atlanta.
Kris Medlen pens his own column, and says he's open to either starting or relieving next year, and that he really learned how to be a reliever on the fly at the Major League level.

At Talking Chop...

Our on-going wrapup of the 2009 season continued with reviews of Martin Prado and Yunel Escobar
CB reviewed the top-5 second base prospects and the top-5 shortstop prospects in the Braves organization.
The Arizona Fall League has begun and Matt kicked off our daily recapping of how our prospects are faring out there.
I warned of a possible Baltimoreification of the Braves after the hiring of Tony DeMacio as Braves director of scouting.
The bloggers of TC participated in a round table discussing the second base position for the Braves, as well as a round table for the shortstop position.
Brian McCann will undergo his second Lasik eye surgery.
The Braves shed their roster of four players in some early off-season roster management.

Notable FanPosts and FanShots...

NCChopper shared with us a picture of the swag she got by winning the TBS Hot Corner NAHWAL contest.
Baseball America spotlighted minor league righty Todd Redmond.
mvhsbball shared with us his trip to the Arizona Fall League.
esadb and a bunch of others think Rudy Jamarillo is the solution to everything.
The Keith Lockhart Era is excited, then laments the end of the Furman Bisher Era.

Talking Chop Round Table: Braves Second Basemen

gondeee — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:44:34 -0000

As part of season reviews for major league players and top prospect ranking for minor league players, we here at Talking Chop thought it would be a fun idea to get all of our bloggers together with the help of Google Docs and debate the various aspects of each position in the Braves organization.

The participants are, yours truly (gondeee, indicated by MG), yondaime4 (indicated by MF), royhobbs (indicated by DH), and cbwilk (indicated by CBW).

Here is the round table for second basemen in the Braves organization:

MG: I think the Braves are going to release Kelly Johnson this off-season. I think they'll try and trade him, but it will be just like Marcus Giles several years ago, where no one wants his salary, so they'll end up non-tendering him.
CBW: It's funny you mention this, because I was thinking about writing up a post comparing the two. Johnson's 2009 was actually a lot worse than Giles' 2006. Giles hit .262 with a .729 OPS that year while Johnson managed just .223 with a .692 OPS this year. Johnson is only making 2.825 million compared to the 3.85 million Giles made that year, but the problem is still the same, nobody gets a pay cut when the hit arbitration, in fact, they all get pay raises. Johnson's situation is worse, because his replacement is obvious in Martin Prado. The Braves got rid of Giles under the hope that Johnson could play second base and recover from missing a year to Tommy John surgery. I really dont' see any way that Johnson comes back, unless he's willing to sign a Minor League deal after getting non-tendered and come to ST to earn a job. Speaking of, Atlanta should be a desirable destination for Minor League free agents who play second base; they'll probably doubt Martin Prado too.
MF: This is sad to me because I have always liked Kelly, ever since he was a 19 year old power hitting shortstop prospect for Macon in the Sally league. I think cutting ties with him now could bite us hard in a couple of seasons but I don't know what else we can do with him that keeps him on the team but not making a but load of outs. That was the problem with this team this year and ultimately the reason we didn't make the playoffs: in the first half of the season we gave away more outs than I care to think about. We can't keep him around if he is going to make those outs, he will just have to rebound elsewhere.
CBW: Definitely agree with the sentiment about liking Kelly for a long time. He was so impressive with Macon and Myrtle Beach. At the time, the guy he really reminded you of was Chipper. His stance was a little less crouched than it is now, and was fairly identical to Chipper's. He had all the tools as well, the surprising speed and general knack. But around AA those things kind of tapered off and he just kind of became another guy. I hope he rebounds for his sake, cause I generall like the guy, but I still think it's going to take some AAA time before a team gives him a shot at being a starter in the Majors again.
MF: I would put serious money on him getting a job with KC or Washington if we non tender him. And that isn't even a joke. One of those guys will go after him.
DH: I was saying the exact same thing with my friend who is a Nats fan. And to no surprise, he says he'd be thrilled to see Kelly Johnson on his team, and I can practically already see him wearing their uniform already. In response to everything else, I'm afraid that I must agree that Johnson's probably done in Atlanta. I remember the old 90's ideology of drafting the best athletes, and in some respect, I thought Kelly was a product of that line of thinking. He has good pop with the bat, a good eye when he wants to be patient, and has decent speed. I kept my mouth shut on the board during the heated Johnson vs. Prado wars, but in the long term, I think Johnson is the better option. Prado may be younger, and might certainly have turned a corner in his career, but I'm still a little bit weary with him.
CBW: Johnson would look right in that lineup. If he played like he did this year, he'd certainly help them go for three number one picks in a row. Sometimes you have to wonder what they're doing in DC; Ian Desmond is one of the worst defensive infielders I've ever seen, but everything I read says their fairly intent on trading Guzman and going with Desmond as their SS. It just baffles me how bad one organization can be.

MG: Martin Prado will improve next year, I stand by that. He now has an entire off-season to prepare himself to be a full time player, where he may not have expected that last off-season.
CBW: I don't understand why some people still doubt this guy. He was a solid .300 hitter with a .747 OPS in the Minors and has been better as a Major Leaguer, hitting .307 with an .810 OPS. Everyone wants to knock him for the amount of time he's spent as a part-time player, but I think the fact that he's maintained and improved upon his success as a part-time player only makes what he's done more impressive. It's not easy to come off the bench and not play every day when you're young and used to being full time in the minors. For some reason he's gotten this reputation as a poor defender, which I just don't see. What he is is a solid, all-around classic second baseman. He's relatively young, and very cheap, and not having him as the starting second baseman in 2010 would be silly. I don't know if he's going to get better, but if he just repeats what he did this year for the next few that'd be fantastic.
MF: Prado hit for more power than I thought he would, but CB is right, his ML performance is right in line with his minor league stuff plus that little bit of power. I'm not sure he will improve next season, but I wouldn't be afraid to expect more of the same. And we are going to need him because as Martin points out, there is no immediate help for 2B.
CBW: I definitely think one of the big offseason needs is to bring in another Infante-like backup, a veteran who's dependable and can play around the infield, cause, as you pointed out, there's no safety net. A guy I've always liked is Mark Loretta. His offense took a huge dip this season, but you're not looking for him to be the main guy off the bench. He'll be 38, but he's still dependable around the infield and is a great presence in a clubhouse. I'm sure there are plenty of guys who fit this bill, but he's the first one that comes to my mind.
DH: As I mentioned above, I'm not 100% sold on Prado. Part of the reason is also his health - joking aside from Kelly line drives, he played most of 2009 with balky knees and ankles. I certainly enjoyed the improvements demonstrated by him throughout the year, and I also agree that I was surprised at the power he flashed from time to time, but I think it's just some part in the back of my mind that is worried that he won't be as effective if he's the starter out of the gate. One question I have is, who's going to inevitably spell Martin Prado? Given the fact that he himself will spell 1B or Chipper a lot of the time, Prado will occasionally need a day off.
CBW: You have to wonder if somebody else won't be brought in to be that backup guy. If they do indeed get rid of Johnson like we all seem to think they will, they'll be asking Prado to become the everyday second baseman, and most teams aren't going to ask one of their starters to be a backup or slide around positions. It seems like you could find a more valuable corner guy with some pop, since you need to replace Norton as well, and just let Omar Infante back up Prado.

MG: Our minor league second base depth is beyond pitiful.
CBW: It's not great, no. When you're mentioning guys like JC Holt and Michael Fisher you know things aren't going well. Holt is 26 and hasn't even played every day the last few years, while Fisher was 24 playing for Myrtle Beach and didn't play that well. Neither are really prospects. The middle infield is a dry spot for the Braves at the moment. I'm actually of the opinion that our best second base prospect is shortstop Myke Jones. His body and his arm look more suited to second, but since he hasn't played there yet, I can't really put him there.
MF: Coming into this season I wouldn't have worried too much about our middle INF depth in the minors simply because we had good players locked up for a while going forward in KJ, Prado and Escobar, but now we just have Prado and Escobar and I am a little worried about what we have coming up. I mean there isn't even any potential in there. Everyone was excited about Robert Brooks last year and he actually might be our best second base prospect right now but I didn't rank anyone this year who missed the season for injuries. We will just have to wait and see with him. Otherwise there is nothing here. Maybe the best option long term is moving Mycal Jones there? But I'm not really sold on him.
CBW: I had completely forgotten about Brooks. I might have had him on my list instead of Holt, because at least if he didn't have a career ending injury, there's the potential that he becomes good, while we pretty much know what Holt is. Still, I wasn't very sold on him last year; yeah, he was great for the Orlando Braves, but he was old for the league. I'm guessing that the plan was actually for him to be at Rome, but he still would have been old there. So, if he's healhty, he's probably starting 2010 at Rome, and he'll turn 22 in May, so, for me, he really needs to come out of the gate and dominate or else I'm going to look at him in the same light as Campusano.
MF: Completely off topic here, but you know who I thought would be great, and then we traded and I thought would bite us in the butt but never amounted to anything? Richard Lewis. I think he was the last college guy we took with or first round pick (supplemental) and he struggled for a couple seasons and then exploded in the AFL right before he went to AA. Then we traded him to the Cubs for Juan Cruz and he knocked 60 XBH in his first season there between AA and AAA and I thought we had been hosed. And then he never made it to the majors. Not even for one AB. How does that happen?
CBW: It's funny, you look at his career, and was always old for whatever league he was playing in, but aside from those 99 games in AA for the Cubs in 04 he never dominated, or even really played that well. We had a lot of busts early in the draft around the late 90s early 2000s, but really I think a lot of teams did. I had forgotten that Richard played Indy ball last year; I think I missed him by a week or so when I saw Camden. It was funny, but I actually talked to Lewis the day he got traded from the Braves. It was during ST and I had talked to him a little in the morning, then he left early, then came out and was saying goodby to everyone. I asked him what was up and he told me about the trade. Kind of interesting to hear about a trade directly from one of the guys involved.

MG: Campusano intrigues me, but I'm not quite sold on him yet, though he gets the top spot almost by default. I want to give it to Travis Jones, but I can't, though I still think there is a good bit of hope for him.
CBW: I was really surprised you guys both had Campusano ahead of Jones. Campusano is only a year young, but he's playing two levels below Jones. He's old for his league and not exactly dominating the way he should be. And, when you see him in person, his body just isn't impressive. He strikes me as a guy who needs to move out to left field; of course, his production out there would just be poor. Jones is a little old for his league, but nowhere near as much as Campusano. Despite low averages and too many strikeouts, Jones has shown some ability to dominate at both Rome and Myrtle Beach, so that's already more than Campusano has going for him. He's going to have to repeat AA as a 24 year old, so he'll definitely be old for his level, but we already know neither he nor Campusano are big time prospects anyway. But still, I can't see putting Jones after Campusano, so I'm curious to hear the reasons you guys had for doing so.
MF: I might reconsider on Jones now that I am looking over things more. In my head I had his season as being worse than what it was and I always take hitting stats in the Southern League with a grain of salt. Especially when you play half your games in Pearl. So, I don't have much justification for ranking Campusano ahead of Jones. Especially with the playmaking ability that Jones flashes with his speed. On top of all that Jones was great in the second half of the season with an .819 OPS and 10/12 on SB attempts. Maybe he is a little better than I was giving him credit for. I stand corrected CB.
CBW: Well, if we can get gondee to change his mind too, can we get the ranking changed to flip flop these guys? I don't know what the plan is, but if the discussion bears out something different, I don't see why not.
MF: It is in stone man, there is no going back now. Not now, not ever.
CBW: ...that's...depressing.

MG: CB, you have got to tell us why you think so highly of Jim Linger.
CBW: Well, I knew I was definitely reaching to put him first on my list, but I was completely shocked that neither of you even had him on yours. When the position is as thin as second base is for the Braves, I figured it couldn't hurt to go out on a limb and take a completely unproven guy. When he signed in 2007, he was considered the best amatuer talent in Australia at the time. The team ultimately decided he didn't have the range, arm, or instincts for shortstop, but at 5'11", 195 pounds he's got a solid, strong body for second base and seems to be making strides there. His 2009 season, was nothing amazing, hitting .273 with a .688 OPS for the Orlando Braves, but he's only 18, he walked a fair amount, and he didn't strike out much. Australians always take a while to develop, and I see a kid with a good body and a ton of upside who was highly though of when he signed. Frankly, nobody else at second base in the system strikes me as a true prospect, so, if only by default, I had put Linger at the top of my list.
MF: I kind of take the Sickels approach to ranking players in that I generally don't give a guy much credit until they have made it into full season ball or have universally praised tools. This year the only real exceptions to that I have are Teheran and Bethancourt. So Linger is a guy I didn't know much about and you have the heads up on having seen him.
CBW: And I really barely saw him. It was like, oh, there's that Australian kid. I watched him take some infield, at shortstop, and a little bit in the batting cage. I definitely don't have any great insight on the guy, I just thought he was worth taking a leap with at a thin position.

Braves Top-5 Second Base Prospects

cbwilk — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

Braves second base prospect Travis Jones.

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The Braves have been fortunate enough to consistently fill their second base position with homegrown talent over the last three decades. Aside from small stretches by Brett Boone and Quilvio Veras, the mantle of starting second baseman has passed from Glen Hubbard to Mark Lemke to Marcus Giles to Kelly Johnson and now to the newest in the string of Atlanta-developed second sackers, Martin Prado. The position has remained solidly, if not spectacularly, filled and the next wave of prospects hints at more of the same. Atlanta's current bevy of second base prospects is fairly lacking in top flight talent with huge celings, but it's a group of solid players who all seem likely to reach their personal potentials.

1. Travis Jones B/T: R/R Born: 11/10/1985 Ht: 5/9" Wt: 190
Jones takes the top spot among Braves' Minor League second basemen despite a bit of a down year for AA Mississippi. As a 22 year old playing for Myrtle Beach in 2008, Jones managed to club out 29 doubles, 16 homers and 78 RBIs along with swiping 17 bases while compling a .248 average and a .789 OPS. This season his OPS dropped to .706 as his home run power seemed to vanish, but his other numbers held firm, as he hit for a .249 average to with 22 doubles and 23 stolen bases.

Mississippi's park has become known as a pitcher's park, as notoriously hard to hit home runs in as Myrtle Beach's park, and that coupled with the natural trials of the adjustment to AA, considered the hardest adjustment in professional baseball, led to Jones' first half struggles. In 228 at bats before the All-Star break he hit just .224 with a punchless .637 OPS, but rebounded amiably after the break hitting .290 with a .819 OPS in 138 at bats.

Jones is a solid, reliable defender who combines good instincts with plus range. He doesn't have the arm to play shortstop, nor the body to play third, and he's played neither position as a professional, so there isn't much of a chance that he'll be able to work his way into the Major Leagues as a utiliy infielder. But, the power/speed combo that he showed in 07, 08, and the second half of 09 suggest that he has the tools to be an everyday starter for a Big League team. He'll begin next season as a 24 year old, so there's not much chance that he'll develop into a high octane, incredibly exciting player, but he's certainly in the Braves mold of a dependable, solid second baseman.

Due to his second half surge, a great Spring Training could propel Jones to AAA Gwinnett, but it's more likely the Braves allow him to repeat his success at AA, at least for the first half of the season. Either way, he'll need to continue to work on keeping his swing correct and aiming for doubles instead of home runs. His history suggests he's never going to hit for a high average, but he still gets on base at a good clip and has shown a knack for situational hitting. Jones doesn't have the highest ceiling in the Braves' farm system, but his combination of slugging and speed make him a valuable component in a lineup and he could help Atlanta as soon as the end of the 2010 season.

2. Yoel Campusano B/T: R/R Born: 12/14/1986 Ht: 5'11" Wt: 200
Campusano, who has alternately been known by the first names Joel and Albaro, comes in at second on the list after garnering Rome's Player of the Year honors by hitting .288 with a .730 OPS. Despite this accolade, 2009 wasn't exactly an outstanding season for him, since at 22 he was several years too old for the league and didn't dominate in the way that a player that old should have.

Despite a slightly stocky body, Campusano has a fair amount of quickness and is a solid defender. He began his career as a shortstop, but as his body has filled out he's found himself better suited for second base. But, while his body is well suited for second, it limits him offensively; despite his build, he's not blessed with much power, and he doesn't have the speed to steal enough bases to make him a dynamic hitter.

Like Jones before him, Campusano is a fairly polished player. He's too old to imagine a huge boost in his tools, but he's been steady enough to suggest he won't regress much either. He'll go into 2010 as Myrtle Beach's starting second baseman and look to continue to build on his Minor League resume.

3. JC Holt B/T: L/R Born: 12/8/1982 Ht: 5"9" Wt: 175
Holt will be 27 entering the 2010 season, so he's hardly the typical prospect, and, despite consistently being a year or so old for the level he was playing at, he's never dominated, compiling a .711 OPS in his six Minor League seasons. But, he's working on his versatility to make himself a more attractive player, going back to the outfield, where he excelled in college, and playing nearly as many games in left field this season as he played at second base.

An August knee injury cut short his 2009 season, but Holt was working mainly as a part-time player even before that, compiling a .282 average and .697 OPS in 302 plate appearances. While he's never been a terror with the bat, he does supplement his lack of power with speed, stealing an average of 25 bases over the last four seasons. He uses his speed well, both at the plate, where he regularly bunts for base hits, and in the field, where he has plus range both in the infield and the outfield. But, his small frame (that he's listed at 5'9" tall is a comical lie) doesn't allow for much of an arm, so he's not likely to be an adequate defender at third base or shortstop and while he'd certainly have the range for center, his arm would be a liability there.

Holt is a completely finished product; you know what you're going to get out of him, an average somewhere in the .270 to .280 range, a low .700 OPS, and around 25 stolen bases. He'll spend 2010 once again refining his skills in Gwinnett, hoping for an injury that will allow his particular set of skills to be useful in the Major Leagues. He's unlikely to be protected on Atlanta's 40 man roster, so a team looking to stash his speed and versatility at the end of their bench might find him attractive.

4. Michael Fisher B/T: S/R Born: 3/22/1985 Ht: 6'2" Wt: 188
Fisher's inclusion on this list is a clear sign that Atlanta is not deep at second base in the Minor Leagues. Despite being several years old for the league at 24, he put up a poor showing at Myrtle Beach, hitting just .238 with a .590 OPS. He showed almost no power, slugging just .296, and doesn't have the speed to make up for it. Add on to that the 18 erros he made and things aren't looking good for Fisher's future.

He'll be entering 2010 as a 25 year old, so at this point Fisher can't be looked at as anything more than organizational filler. He's likely to return to Myrtle Beach if only to supplement the roster and aid the younger players. Even if he is able to make a dramatic turnaround in his career, he'll need to prove himself at AA and AAA before he can be counted on for Atlanta's future.

5. Jim Linger B/T: R/R Born: 9/6/1990 Ht: 5'11" Wt: 195
Linger sneaks onto the end of this list based on potential alone. When he was signed out of Australia last year he was considered the top amateur talent in the country and represented his homeland in this year's World Cup Tournament. His introduction into professional baseball was a little rough, but not without its promise, as he hit for a .273 average and a .688 OPS in 142 plate appearances for the Orlando Braves in the Gulf Coast League. While these numbers aren't spectacular, he did show improvement as he acclimated to playing in America, ending the year hitting .303 with a .748 OPS in 76 August at bats while collecting both of his home runs and 6 of his 8 RBIs on the season. Originally signed as a shortstop, he has settled in at second base as a pro, utilizing his rangy frame and athleticism to make himself a plus defender.

Australians often take longer than players from other foreign countries to develop as the level of play isn't as competitive, so it's not out of the question that Linger will be slow to develop. With a good showing in Spring Training, he could find himself as Rome's starting second baseman in 2010, but it's more likely that he'll stay in Extended ST and begin playing with Danville in June. Either way, Linger is young enough that there's room to be patient with him and his combination of athleticism and potential make it plausible that he could be at the top of Altanta's second base prospect pile come this time next year.

(All photos by CB Wilkins, except Campusano by Chip Jett)

Note To Self: Read Brandon Kruse Before My 2010 Drafts

raygu — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist lines a second inning RBI single off New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia during a baseball game Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. Rays' Jason Bartlett scored on the hit. Catching for the Yankees is Jorge Posada. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Browse more photos »

I know what you are saying. Who in the world is Brandon Kruse. Brandon Kruse writes for Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. A few days ago, I was flipping through my 2009 Baseball Forecaster and stumbled upon his article titled: "Speculating on Breakouts-1". Kruse looked players who had a Rotisserie value of $10 or less the prior year and who met all of the BaseballHQ filters for their respective breakout profile. Had I read this article before my 2009 drafts I could have had a few sleeper hitters who had breakout years in 2009. Here is who he wrote about-9 players in all:

1. Brian Anderson (OF, CWS)

2. Erick Aybar (SS, LAA)

3. Manny DelCarmen (RP, BOS)

4. Joe Mather (OF, STL)

5. Martin Prado (MI, ATL)

6. Ramon Ramirez (RP, KC)

7. Seth Smith (OF, COL)

8. Eugenio Velez (2B/OF, SF)

9. Ben Zobrist (SS/OF, TB)

Well, it's obvious not everyone on this list had a breakout season, but a few really standout. Ben Zobrist had a huge breakout season going 27-91-91-17-.297. Can he duplicate his performance in 2010?

Martin Prado had a nice breakout season as well. He took over the 2B job from soon-to-be-traded 2B Kelly Johnson. In 450 ABs, Prado went 11-49-64-.307 with 38 doubles.

The Rockies Seth Smith had a breakout season also. In 335 ABs, he went 15-55-61-4-.293. Those numbers project to around 25 HRs and 85 RBIs if he played everyday, which could happen should Colorado were to deal RFer Brad Hawpe in the offseason.

In his first year as a full-time starter, Erick Aybar went 5-58-70-14-.312 in just over 500 ABs for the Angels this year. He is one of the reasons why SS Brandon Wood rides the pine when he gets called up to the big league club.

Everyone looks for sleeper picks before their drafts. I suggest taking a look at Kruse's article in the 2010 version of Shandler's Baseball Forecaster before your drafts in 2010.

Poll

Will Ben Zobrist duplicate his 2009 performance in 2010?

Yes, he's Chase Utley Lite.

27 votes

No, he will regress a little bit.

47 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed