SB Nation - John Smoltz

Can The Washington Nationals Afford To Be Patient This Winter?

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:54:36 -0000

Will free agent closer Matt Capps join former Pirates teammate Nyjer Morgan (pictured, right) in Washington, or is he headed to Chicago to pitch for the Cubs? We might know soon. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Worst Case Scenario --

According to an ESPNChicago.com article entitled, "Capps admits preliminary Cubs talks", free agent reliever Matt Capps told "Talking Baseball" hosts Bruce Levin and Jonathan Hood this past Saturday that he'd had "preliminary talks" with the Chicago Cubs, though in the reliever's own words, as quoted in the article, "There's just as good a chance of me being a Cub as being anybody else." You can never underestimate, however, the importance that family plays in decisions professional athletes make, and as is noted in the article, for Capps, there is, "...a comfort factor for his family in coming to Chicago, as his wife and (former Pirates teammates and current-Cubs) (John) Grabow's and (Tom) Gorzelanny's wives are good friends." Suppose Capps announces tomorrow that he's signed with the Cubs?

What if Washington wakes up to the news the Yankees have signed Jon Garland? What if Jason Marquis was really just saying what he thought the Nationals wanted to hear to force the New York Mets' hand? Marquis said all the right things about Washington, telling MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Marquis interested in Nationals", that he'd learned from veterans in the past and was looking to pass that knowledge on to the next generation of starters on Washington's roster, while praising the moves the Nationals had made so far this offseason as showing that they're, "...headed in the right direction and making the moves that (are) necessary to get themselves back to being a winning organization." A veteran pitcher to mentor the Nationals' young starters, who can help the Nationals turn the corner toward respectability...that's just what they're looking for.

Capps too might just have been telling the Nationals exactly what they wanted to hear in another article by MLB.com's Bill Ladson, this one entitled, "Nationals a finalist to acquire Capps", where he was quoted stating that he, "...already like(s) the moves (the Nationals) already made in trying to be competitive next year and beyond," and Capps even goes the team-player route in stating that of course he'd be willing to set up instead of close if that's what the team asked:

"'If it's better suited for me to set up for the team in the seventh inning or eighth inning, that's what I'll do,' Capps said. 'If they sign me and tell me they want me to play shortstop, I'll play shortstop. I want to win. I want to be in an environment [where winning is important]. All signs are looking good with what they are trying to do so far.'"

(ed. note - "Capps' agent has said elsewhere that he'd be willing set up for a contender.")

In addition to the Nationals, the Mets, Yankees and Cubs are all said to be interested in Capps. The Milwaukee Brewers reportedly had interest in Garland if they couldn't reach an agreement with Randy Wolf, but since they did the Nationals are the only team that has been linked to the free agent right-hander. FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote Friday that the Nationals were making a "serious run" at Garland in an article entitled, "Sources: Nats eye Garland", where he also wrote that if the team and pitcher failed to agree on a deal, Washington had interest in both Jason Marquis and free agent lefty Doug Davis. With the prize pitcher of the free agent market, John Lackey, joining the Red Sox, every team in the majors looking for pitching is looking at these same names.

A free agent closer? According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal's article on the market for relievers entitled, "Too many closers, not enough jobs", though Washington is one of only three teams in the market for relief with an open closer's job, "The Nationals...are rebuilding. Closers are luxury items for such teams; other needs," (like maybe starting pitching and middle infield help?), "..are more pressing."

So far this winter, Washington's added a reliever with control issues and a veteran catcher whose statistical output declined significantly last season and brought back a starter coming off shoulder surgery...? They're in the market for starters and closers...middle infielders...outfielders (if you believe some reports), but so far they've yet to make many changes (other than subtractions) to a team that finished 2009 with a 59-103 record. What if they miss out on Capps, Garland and Marquis? Is Doug Davis going to turn the Nationals around? Does Livan Hernandez have anything left? What about John Smoltz? Those are the only other two names the Nationals have been linked to...What if the Nationals wait too long?

Life After Lackey Starts With Sheets

James Kannengieser — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:00:22 -0000

With three of the better free agent starting pitchers (John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden) off the market, and Roy Halladay a Phillie, Met fans have unsurprisingly started in with the it's-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it talk. Best practice to avoid this nonsense is turning off WFAN. Actually, that's probably a good idea in general, unless you're tuning in for the unintentionally hilarious grunts of Mike Francesa. Make no mistake about it: there are plenty of other strong options for the 2010 rotation, available via free agency and trade. One name that the Mets would be wise to make a strong play for is Ben Sheets.

Sheets is the best of the crop of talented, injury prone pitchers which includes Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer. He missed all of 2009 because of flexor tendon surgery and has a history of other assorted ailments. When healthy, he's one of the best in the game. Hopefully the Mets' reported preliminary interest in Sheets turns into strong pursuit, and soon. The rare blend of strikeout ability and control he provides (career K/BB of 3.85) is preferable to the fielding dependent stylings of Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro, especially considering the iffy Mets infield defense and presence of Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese.

According to ESPN, Sheets is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million a season. That seems a bit excessive but I would endorse a deal similar to Harden's with a small bump because Sheets is slightly better. Maybe a one year deal for $9 million with an option around $12 million? If signed, he could realistically be a 2.5-3 win pitcher, even in ~140 innings. It would be wise to limit him to 25 starts or so to ensure health as well. Pairing Sheets up with someone more reliable would be prudent, and some of the available pitchers worth looking at are as follows:

Aaron Harang - My top choice to pair with Sheets. He can probably be had for less than he's worth, has a strong strikeout rate and is an overall above average pitcher. Just don't let Jerry Manuel use him on two days rest for four innings of relief. The home run problem might be alleviated if he escapes Great American Ballpark.
Derek Lowe - The contract might become an albatross but if the Braves kick in some money he would be a decent addition. Similar skill set to Marquis and Pineiro, albeit more dependable.
John Smoltz - Calling a 42 year-old with injury problems reliable is a big stretch but if Sheets isn't signed "Schmoltz" (per Ron Darling) is worth a look. His peripherals and velocity were there in 2009 and despite his status as long-time Brave he is a personal favorite. Every pitch he throws looks like an angry haymaker thrown at the batter. I rarely say things like this, with good reason, but Smoltz is a competitor who just seems to want it more than anyone else on the field. His intensity would help satiate the masses and mainstream media who think the Mets are a bunch of spineless slugs.
Doug Davis - An under the radar type whose numbers might surprise. Yes, he gets hit hard but considering his age and lack of brand name he could be a nice bargain on a cheap one year deal to fill out the back of the rotation.

See robcast23's Big Book Of Available Pitchers post for more on Sheets and the pitchers listed above.

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Day Two - Bruney, Pudge And Smoltz?

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:32:16 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Don't Stare At "Pudge" It Only Makes Him Angrier...Is Pudge Rodriguez coming to DC to start? Or is it Jesus Flores' job to lose? (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Brian Bruney's name was all but forgotten as the DC Faithful and the national press turned first to the story of the Washington Nationals signing 38-year-old catcher Paul L...uh, Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, and then to the three-way-deal between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, which of course dominated the headlines once it was announced. But that trade holds little interest for fans of the Washington Nationals, who were still naval-gazingly introspective as they pondered the significance of signing Rodriguez, and the effect it would have on Jesus Flores' future in the nation's capital. Oh, and Bruney, (while he said all the right things yesterday to the Washington press, telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in a Nationals Journal article entitled, "Bruney wants a chance to close", that he, "'...felt like New York was a good stepping stone with lots of pressure-filled situations. But to be honest, I had talked to my agent and I said, 'I can't wait to get to the place where I can try and close somewhere.'")...Bruney struck a slightly different tone in the New York press with New York Daily News' writer Mark Feinsand, in an article entitled, "New York Yankees trade Brian Bruney to Washington Nationals for draft pick", quoting Bruney saying that he believes, "...the opportunity is going to be better for me over there," with "there" of course being Washington, but, "Going from winning the World Series with the Yankees to playing for the Nationals," Bruney continues, "...that's going to be different." ...(ed. note - "And I know it will be "different", I wouldn't deny that, it's just that five years after the promise of change once the team was taken from Montreal, the Nationals are still talked about in such a condescending tone by everyone in baseball, even their own fans...")

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals And Lo D...uh "Pudge" Define The Word Backup.

• Ken Rosenthal: "Nats are Smoltz's Last Resort"

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals And Lo D...uh "Pudge" Define The Word Backup.

I wasn't the only one who wondered exactly what signing catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez said about the Nationals' plans for 2010 when I heard Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras on XM's Home Plate Update all day repeating the same assessment of his client's role in the nation's capital as the Nationals' newest backstop:

"Certainly in Washington, Pudge has an opportunity, particularly this year to play at a number that's well above that of a backup catcher, so he's going to be a significant contributor..."

Define "significant contributor"? According to Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling, that means Jesus Flores, "...could lose significant playing time to Rodriguez, who the Nationals expect to play 70-80 games." Not quite the mentor/teacher role everyone was talking about when the deal was first announced, and Mr. Goessling goes on to report that, in fact, "Washington had interest in Rodriguez since late this season, and he was their No. 1 option for a backup catcher." Is Flores not recovering as quickly as they had hoped? Will Flores be ready for the start of the season? Is Pudge Rodriguez still an everyday catcher? And if Flores isn't ready, who backs up Pudge? Please don't bring up Josh Willingham as an emergency catcher, or tell me about how Robert Fick is somewhere practicing...

How do the Nationals make a significant signing (pending Pudge passing his physical) and end up with more questions than they began the winter with?

• Ken Rosenthal: "Nats are Smoltz's Last Resort"

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal sent a Tweet out late this afternoon concerning the fate of 42-year-old free agent pitcher John Smoltz:

"Smoltz still possibility in STL. J. Garcia might not be ready to be No. 5. Smoltz could start and/or relieve. Nats are Smoltz's last resort."

Smoltz is still on the list of pitchers the Nationals are interested in according to former DC GM Jim Bowden, who put out a Twitter post today which read in part:

"Nats in on Garland, Pineiro, Padilla, Smoltz but not Lackey."

MLB.com's Bill Ladson said in a Tweet that, "The Nationals see Smoltz as a starter" and Mr. Ladson adds one name to that list with his own Tweet on the Nationals' targets:

"The Nats have interest in free-agent pitchers such as Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Joel Pineiro, John Smoltz and Jarrod Washburn."

The Meetings aren't over yet...

Washington Nationals Interested In John Smoltz Acc. To FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:04:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

Is John Smoltz the veteran pitcher the Washington Nationals have been looking for to mentor their young starting staff? (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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In explaining what sort of pitcher it is that the Washington Nationals are interested in acquiring this winter, DC GM Mike Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in an early November article entitled, "Nats interested in free agent Lackey", that the team was looking for, "a solid veteran pitcher", while acknowledging that convincing such a pitcher to join a team looking to rebound from back-to-back 100-loss seasons would not be an easy sell:

"'You have to show the veteran pitcher what the plan is, our plan for success, how we are built to perform at this level at this given time.

"'We have to have a special type of veteran pitcher, who is willing to give of himself as a teacher and mentor type of guy. We have to get a team-oriented person, a person that is going to give his time and his knowledge. It's not an easy task.'"

Is John Smoltz that pitcher?

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal is reporting that a "source with knowledge of the discussions" tells him that, "There is a mutual sincere interest," between the Nationals and the 42-year-old veteran of 21 MLB seasons, who split the '09 campaign in Boston and St. Louis where he posted a combined (3-8) record with a 6.35 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 in 15 starts and 78.0 IP after recovering from a torn labrum in his right shoulder.

Mr. Rosenthal writes that Smoltz would, "...almost certainly prefer to sign with a National League contender rather than the Nationals," with the Cardinals, "...remaining his top choice," but the FOXSports.com scribe notes that, "The Nationals will try to sell Smoltz," who has a history with DC team President Stan Kasten from the time both spent in Atlanta, "...on the idea of serving as a mentor to their young pitching staff. Smoltz might be intrigued by the notion, particularly if his other options are limited."

Rival Hot Stoves: Red Sox

jscape2000 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:00:31 -0000

by Stew Milne - AP

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The Red Sox are chasing the Yankees again, and once again both front offices are looking at the same assets.

1. The Lineup Right Now:

Martinez

Youkilis

Pedroia

Lowell

Lowrie

Anderson

Ellsbury

Drew

Ortiz

Beckett

Lester

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Buchholz

Bard

Okajima

Ramirez

Papelbon

2. Prospects to Watch:

Josh Reddick- an outfielder with the speed to play all 3 spots, Reddick's bat didn't perform well in his September call up. HIs high batting average has carried him quickly through the minors (only 18 games at AAA and less than 90 games at AA). He's a see it- hit it type, and I wonder if his defense is strong enough to make Jacoby Ellsbury a trade chip in the quest for a certain high profile pitcher from North of the Border.

Michael Bowden- the 23 year old compares to IPK- high 80s to low 90s fastball, plus command of fastball and curve. He saw 16 innings of work in Boston (8G, 1 start), be he pitched very well in AAA Pawtucket (24 starts, average 5.1IP, 106H, 44BB, 88K). As a trade chip or as the first replacement starter, Bowden is a part of the Red Sox future.

Lars Anderson- the big first baseman had a terrible season in 2009, hitting a Jose Molina-esque .233/.328/.345 in 119 games in his second year at AA. He'll need a big bounce back to put his career back on track.

Matchup with the Yankees:

Victor Martinez's defense as a full time catcher will make Posada look like Bill DIckey. The right side of the infield will stand up with anybody in the league, but the Sox suffered through a season of near replacement level on the left side, so it's no surprise that the front office has wondered if their Gold Glove 2B might not play a good enough SS to sign or trade for a strong second baseman.

At the moment the Red Sox have the stronger rotation. Adding Halladay, or adding Lackey and seeing Halladay go anywhere but New York, would make the Red Sox the AL favorites.

The Quick ReLoad:

The Red Sox took $12M off the books before the start of the 2009 season. Another $40M came off at the end of season. If Boston has only $30M to spend, that's enough to make the second best team in the AL even more imposing.

A left fielder is a must-have, but there are a slew of available left fielders, and all of them could handle the small patch of grass in the shadow of the Green Monster.

Either the Red Sox have to acquire a shortstop, or they have move Pedroia and choose from the relatively stronger crop of second basemen.

Wrap-up:

The Sox got basically nothing from Matsuzaka, and replaced his quality with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Even if a trade for Halladay weakened the Red Sox for a decade, it would make them a frightening team to face in 2010, both over the regular season and in a playoff series.

My sincerest hope is that Theo learned nothing from his lightning in a bottle 2009 approach. Another season of Nick Green at short and Tim Wakefield as the #3 pitcher would make me a happy Yankee. My fear is that the $50M that have come off the books in the last 2 seasons is on its way back into the payroll.

Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

roguejim — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:51:33 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

I am Carl Pavano --- no one gave up more earned runs last year in all of baseball last year than I. But I command you to look only at my peripherals! Look at them! Yesss...stare longingly at my sweet sweet peripherals. Love them! (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.

(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)

(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)

(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)

Here's the list:

Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
Randy Wolf
Rich Harden
Erik Bedard
John Smoltz
Andy Pettitte
Joel Pineiro
Jarrod Washburn
Ben Sheets
Brad Penny
Justin Duchscherer
Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
Doug Davis
Jason Marquis
Jon Garland
Vicente Padilla
Carl Pavano
Braden Looper
Randy Johnson
Mike Hampton
Hisanori Takahashi
Paul Byrd
Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other

Florida Marlins Spring Schedule

craig — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:07:01 -0000

The Marlins have released their spring training schedule.

Florida Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium.

In case you were wondering, the Marlins only play one night game in Jupiter. And I am guessing a couple of you were, looking at you Spud and LadyFish. The game will be against the Mets on March 18th and starting at 7:05 p.m. If I had to guess why there are so few, to nonexistent, ones at night games this spring becauses it messes up the tee times. While for veterans they can probably just blow it off, those who are hoping for a spot on the roster can't.

It reminds of the story of when John Smoltz who was with the Red Sox at the time and they were playing the Braves in spring training. Smoltz went to the Braves locker room to renew old acquaintances, He showed up wearing shorts and a polo type shirt. He spent his time reliving old stories of the past with the ones who were a part of the Braves when the stories took place. Eventually the laughter came to an end when one of the Braves coaches said it was time to hit the field.

A couple of the Braves players said to Smoltz: Don't you have to get dressed for the game? To which he replied: No. I'm playing golf with Tiger Woods today.

Nothing like being a first ballot Hall of Famer.

The State of the Rockies: A Sane Free Agency Preview

Jabberwocky — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:18:36 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, the siren of the MLB free agency period once again beckons, luring unsuspecting baseball fans into wrecking their ships against the sharp jagged rocks--in this case dreams of big-ticket free agents for even the smallest markets, ill-conceived trade schemes, and long soliloquies about why the owner/GM/beat writer is a complete and utter moron. This column, my dear friends, is the beeswax to put in your ears to defend you from those beautiful seductresses (and their horrible ideas) as you look forward to the 2010 Rockies.

Yes, that's right. A few minutes ago, the floodgates officially opened for major league free agency. In addition, all MLB teams are required to set their 40 man rosters in advance of the December 8th Rule 5 draft. I've written about all three subjects in Purple Row Academy before, so for those of you who are curious about how those processes are carried out, check out these primers:

Free Agency (the dates listed therein are from last offseason)

40 Man Roster

Rule 5 Draft

All three of these articles have supporting links that clarify the issues even further.

In this installment of the State of the Rockies, I opine about the puzzling Garrett Atkins decision, revisit Rafael Betancourt's situation, examine the Rockies' current 40 man roster status, and look some free agent targets that I'd like the Rockies to consider (plus, how they would fit into the budget that I've outlined over the last two weeks).

Join me after the jump if you value your sanity.

Why didn't the Rockies non-tender Garrett Atkins before the 40 man roster had to be set?

Good question. There's one main reason for doing this, and that's to extend the window of time that the Rockies have to trade the underperforming third baseman for another few weeks--until the December 12th deadline for tendering contracts for players under team control. Unfortunately for Colorado and Dan O'Dowd, the chances of such a deal being consummated reside squarely between slim and none.

It's not that Atkins isn't drawing interest from other teams. Just three years ago he was a player worth 6.4 WAR, he can play both corner infield positions somewhat passably, and he is theoretically in his prime (he'll turn 30 on the date that the Rockies will probably non-tender him). The problem is, Atkins' value as a trade asset to the Rockies is basically nil. Because by rule Atkins' salary next year unless he is a free agent can be no less than 80% of last year's total ($7.05 million), teams that would trade for Garrett would at a minimum be paying $5.64 million for a player that was flat out awful in 2009. The point is that I can't fathom another team trading the Rockies anything (and I mean anything) for him when he'd come much more cheaply once he's been non-tendered.

However, since the Rockies have seven slots open on the 40 man roster as of today (more on that later), it appears that Colorado has enough room to protect the prospects they want from the Rule 5 draft without removing Atkins from it. I'm hoping against hope that O'Dowd can finagle a deal for Atkins, but let's just say that I'm not holding my breath.

What's up with Rafael Betancourt?

From the poll results of last week's column, it appears that the vast majority of you want Betancourt back next year, preferably on a multi-year deal with less of a hit on a per-annum basis. Since the Rockies did decline his option, which was the right call in my opinion, they face a further decision with the soon to be 35 year old reliever--whether to offer him salary arbitration or not by the December 8th deadline.

It is my opinion that if he were offered arbitration, Betancourt would be crazy not to accept it. His status as a Type A free agent severely pollutes his value on the free agent market, chasing away a number of potentially interested teams that don't want to give the Rockies their first round pick for a solid set-up man. Considering Betancourt's age and the relatively high volatility of relief pitching performance, the risk for another team is particularly acute. I believe that as a result Betancourt would be very fortunate indeed to receive an offer that approaches what he would get in arbitration.

And what would that be? Let's look at some precedent--a tale of two relievers, if you will.

Last year two veteran relief pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration from their clubs. Oliver was a Type A free agent while Weathers was a former closer who had once been perceived as being productive. Oliver was coming off of a 1.0 WAR season in which he was very effective, while Weathers had produced 0.2 WAR.

Oliver, who was going to be 38 in 2009, got his salary increased through arbitration from $2 million to $3.665 million, while Weathers, who was going to be 39, went up from $3.3 to $3.5 million. Those are 83.3% and 6% raises respectively, as would befit their recent performance levels. In 2009, Oliver continued to defy science and produced an even better, 1.5 WAR year at age 38, while Weathers was DFA'd and ended up with -0.8 WAR--while being paid $3.5 million. That's the risk inherent with offering arbitration--some decisions pan out and some fail.

Given that Betancourt is likely better than both of the pitchers above and a little younger (35 compared to 38-39), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, closer to Oliver's 83% raise and maybe larger. In 2009 Betacourt was making $3.5 million—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 2.9 million (or 83%) to $6.4 million—in other words, more than the option the Rockies just declined should he accept arbitration. Who knows though…arbitrators work in mysterious ways.

The draft picks should Betancourt not accept arbitration and sign with another team would be worth about $5 million, so the Rockies are gambling that they can either re-sign Betancourt for a lower price tag or that another team would be willing to offer him a crazy contract despite his free agency status. If it works, O'Dowd is a genius--but I just have serious doubts that everything will work out. Bottom line though, the worst case scenario is that the Rockies pay Betancourt well over $6 million next year--which is pretty palatable as far as worst case scenarios go.

Who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned above, the Rockies have only 33 spots filled on their 40 man roster, meaning that they technically have room to protect up to seven prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that's not really realistic. As I've outlined previously, the Rockies have holes on the major league roster that need to be filled--namely replacements for their ten free agents and Atkins--so in effect they can protect only a few players.

Hat tip to WolfMarauder on this, but going strictly by the Purple Row PuRP list, the Rockies have four prospects that would need to be protected from the draft: Michael McKenry (C), Cole Garner (OF), Chaz Roe (RHP), and Edgmer Escalona (RHP)--plus Alberto Alberquerque (RHP), who the Rockies received in exchange for Jeff Baker.

Now admittedly the minor league system isn't my area of expertise, but if I were to hazard a guess, the Rockies will likely protect McKenry, Garner, and Roe--leaving both Escalona and Alberquerque (among other lesser prospects) eligible for the draft. They simply won't be able to protect more than that--not if the Rockies plan to field a complete roster come Opening Day 2010. We'll see soon enough.

Who should the Rockies be looking at in free agency?

Given that, by my calculations, the Rockies currently have 23 players under contract for next year (22 if you allow that Buchholz will start on the DL), they will need to fill those holes. This might be through re-signing free agents such as Yorvit Torrealba at back-up catcher, Rafael Betancourt as a set-up man, and Joe Beimel as a lefty out of the pen. Or they could go by the cheap youth method, promoting McKenry to the big leagues come Opening Day while using Deduno and Chacin in the bullpen. Or they could make a foray into the free agent market. Finally, the Rockies could explore the trade market both as a buyer and a seller. To that end, Baseball Prospectus has a few tips for those interested in making up interesting trade rumors.

My prediction is that the Rockies will explore a little of each, signing at least one of their free agents (my guess is that they do get Betancourt back one way or another) and maybe two (Torrealba seems somewhat likely as well), while should Torrealba fall through McKenry seems to be the most cost-effective candidate. I think that the Rockies are likely to trade one of their outfielders (and I've recommended Hawpe many many times), maybe two--and O'Dowd could perform a miracle and trade Atkins. Either way, I think the Rockies will be looking for one of two things in free agency: a back-up corner infielder/veteran and a relief pitcher, preferably a lefty.

Given this and the fact that the Rockies' budget is undeniably tight, here are a few players that I would recommend at least kicking the tires on that are within the Rockies price range. By no means is this list exhaustive, but these players would fill a need for Colorado.

Free Agency Targets

Pedro Feliz: Yes, he's a pretty bad hitter and yes, he's old, but Feliz fields his position very well (he could likely play first base at a high level too) and has shown at least some power--two important characteristics for a NL bench player. He's sufficiently veteranny (he'll be 34 years old), he's right-handed, and would likely cost around $3-5 million to sign. Ultimately, he's injury insurance that gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility in later innings. Obviously, Feliz will be looking for a starting situation before he would choose to come to the Rockies, which is a big stumbling block.

Jamey Carroll: He has already been awesome for the Rockies before (3.1 WAR in 2006), plus he can play almost anywhere on the diamond (and do it well). The fans and players love him already, and he's willing to come off the bench. The problem is that the competition for the utilityman will be fierce this offseason, and he might be snapped up for close to $3 million.

Felipe Lopez: He represents an upgrade at second base, plus he has defensive versatility. His excellent year last year could price him out of Colorado's range, though in my opinion he is being severely undervalued by many. This is a pipe dream that RMN and I share.

Juan Uribe: He's another former Rockie, one who has excelled in this type of role already on the Giants. Unfortunately for Colorado, he may have performed too well for the Giants, who really want him back. My prediction is that San Francisco gets their man.

Joe Crede: He's great with the leather and serviceable with the bat. The problem is that he's looking for a starting job and he's had three back surgeries already. Give him an incentive laden salary with a low base and he's your man--but Crede's probably not coming to Colorado in a part-time role (especially since he's a Boras client).

Eric Hinske: The last three years, the teams that Hinske has been on have made the World Series, winning it twice. How much more of a veteran winner can you be? Plus he's good with the bat and is versatile (though not particularly competent) defensively.

Jose Contreras: More than any other Rockies free agents, I want Contreras back next year as rotation insurance and as a swing man with excellent stuff in the bullpen--heck, I'd like to see the Rockies pay up to $3 million for his services. Whether that would be enough is another matter.

John Smoltz: If he'd deign to sign with the Rockies, Colorado would be glad to have his power arm in the bullpen or even in the fifth starter's role.

Rodrigo Lopez: He has found success in Colorado before and would serve as rotation depth.

Mark Hendrickson and Scott Eyre (Type B): Serviceable veteran left-handed relievers that would cost around $2-3 million each.

To that effect, there are many relievers or failed starters that O'Dowd could pick up cheaply off the scrap heap that would perform at a decent level for this team--I'm not really as worried about the bullpen.

The bottom line is that I think the Rockies should sign Feliz or a similar player to replace Atkins while inking a veteran starter/reliever for the bullpen. If Colorado does move Hawpe, they'll likely receive a bullpen arm in return that could fill the void as well. Either way, I'm expecting free agency to cost the Rockies around $8-10 million, bringing their ODP to around $87 million.

MLB Trade Rumors: John Smoltz to Close??

raygu — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:15:11 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - ASSOCIATED PRESS

2 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals starter John Smoltz (30) in action against the Cincinnati Reds in a baseball game, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi over at Foxsports.com wrote that there are 7 teams interested in signing John Smoltz this offseason, with some interested in him closing. Here is what they wrote:

The Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that have expressed preliminary interest in free-agent right-hander John Smoltz, according to a major-league source.
Smoltz, 42, is open to starting or relieving, and some teams have inquired about him as a closer, the source said. The Astros, Rangers and Orioles also have shown interest in the 22-year veteran.

Looking at that list, I could see the Cardinals, Astros, Rangers and Orioles looking at him to close. The Cardinals may feel that newly re-signed closer Ryan Franklin's late season blowup is a real cause for concern and try to sign Smoltz to close.

The Astros may look to him to close as their two closers from 2009 Jose Valverde and Latroy Hawkins are both free agents and may cost too much for them to re-sign.

Smoltz may want to stay in the National League after his woeful performance in Boston last year where he was 2-5 with an 8.32 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 8 starts. With St. Louis, Smoltz was 1-3 in 7 starts with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. It's pretty obvious he's a better pitcher in the National League, and at his age, one has to question whether he can start every five days.

Smoltz's peripheral stats in 2009 were solid. He had a 4.06 K/BB ratio, striking out 8.4/9 and walking 2.1/9. His HR/P were up but most of the damage occurred while he was in Boston where his HR/9 was 1.8/9, while in St. Louis it dropped to 0.7/9. In Boston, batters went .341/.384/.584/.968 against him, while in St. Louis batters went .248/.287/.379/.666 against him.

Smoltz is smart enough to know he is a more effective pitcher in the National League. And he can still close, and will come cheaper than a Jose Valverde or Billy Wagner.

Poll

Will John Smoltz be a starter or closer in 2010?

starter

45 votes

closer

118 votes

163 votes | Poll has closed