SB Nation - Lance Cormier

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays Reach Agreements and Avoid Arbitration with Relievers Lance Cormier & Randy Choate

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:51:53 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Nothing unexpected here.

Cormier was actually a victim of non-tender circumstance around this point last year with the Baltimore Orioles. That decisions is worth nothing for two reasons. 1) It showcases that there is some talent to be had from this time of the year and 2) Cormier pitched almost identically to last season. His FIP went up slightly, from 4.04 to 4.18, and his xFIP from 4.3 to 4.59, but he did his job as a mop-up man with the ability to get groundballs. Cormier pounds the zone with a high-80s fastball while employing secondary pitches like his curve, cutter, and slider. His breaking pitches get whiffs, his fastballs don't. Regardless, a ridiculous 79% of Cormier's cutters went for strikes last year - either swings and misses, called, or fouls - that type of factoid makes his return worthwhile within itself.

Choate was a minor league signing for depth purposes who wound up taking the job by force once Brian Shouse went down to injury. He is what he is. Against lefties he can manage some modest strikeout and walk rates as well as a fair groundball rate. Last year's 65% is higher than career norms, and his FIP and xFIP totals were off the charts for him. Choate threw the highest percentage of fastballs in his career so it'll be interesting to see how he embarks on his second season back in the American League East next season. He will make $700k.

Both were arbitration eligible, and avoid it with such agreements. The Rays have until midnight to offer arbitration, reach agreements, trade, or officially non-tender Matt Garza, B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Jason Bartlett, Kelly Shoppach, Dioner Navarro, and Gabe Gross. The latter two seem to be the ones in danger of ending their Rays tenure at the stroke of midnight.

Tampa Bay Rays Face Several Decisions On Player Options; Carl Crawford, Gregg Zaun

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:38:01 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays will just say "yes" when it comes to Carl Crawford's $10 million dollar option for 2010.

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One of the first orders of business to take care of during the hot stove league is squaring away options. So far 11 options have been accepted or declined since the end of the World Series with several more looming. Around these parts the Tampa Bay Rays have three options of their own to take care of.

Two of the three options seem like slam dunks. One is an obvious pick-up and one is a simple decline. The third option, however, is 50/50 and will probably determine the course of who is our catcher next season.

The Rays hold a $1.9 million dollar option (plus performance bonuses) on left handed specialist, Brian Shouse. Overall, his 5.17 FIP was far from impressive and his -0.1 WAR made him a negative value. However, it wasn't his fault that manager, Joe Maddon, had him face nearly as many righties (52 PA) as lefties (70 PA). Shouse did the job expected of him in 2009, and held left handed batters to a line of .224/.246/.373. Righties continued to crush him at a .356/.442/.622 clip. Nonetheless, Shouse just didn't pitch enough to justify picking up his nearly $2 million dollar option A left elbow strain sidelined him for 63 days, and while he made 45 appearances, he threw just 28 innings. With that being said, the $200k buyout is the likely course of action in this case.

The Rays are more likely to go with fellow side-winding lefty, Randy Choate, who was nearly as effective and will cost probably half of what Shouse will. There is always the possibility of signing former Ray (for 24 hours) and sabermetric wunderkind, R.J. Swindle on a minor league deal. The Rays could also go without a traditional lefty and turn to reverse split righties like Lance Cormier and newly acquired Jesse Chavez to serve as LOOGY's.

The next option is just as simple; the Rays will exercise the $10 million dollar option on left fielder and franchise player, Carl Crawford. This is a no-brainer and regardless of what CC's future holds, he will remain Rays' property for the time being. According to fangraphs, Crawford has made $13.1 million dollars in his career with the Rays. The nice $10 million raise is well overdue considering the fact that he as given the team $104.7 million dollars worth of production during his career.

CC is easily worth the $10 million dollar tag, but with some scouts saying Desmond Jennings could give you the same production right now for the league minimum, it doesn't look likely CC will finish his career with the Rays. Despite that fact, stranger things have happened, and both sides have expressed interest in a long term deal. Either way, the Crawford decision will be the biggest and most emotional decision in the franchise's history.

The final option because to leader of the Zaunbie nation, Gregg Zaun. Hailed as the veteran savior to our catching woes, Zaun didn't disappoint in the final two months of the season. Brining his veteran savvy and his reputed ball blocking ability, Zaun also swung a mighty stick in his near 100 plate apperances with the Rays. Small sample size rules apply, but Zaun hit .287/.323/.489 for the Rays. That earned him a 0.7 WAR or $3.2 million dollars in value. This means he has essentially covered his potential 2010 $2 million dollar option in production.

He is hardly the answer at catcher alone, and ZiPs has him projected for a .237/.335/.367 line in 2010. More likely, Zaun would be the left handed batter in a catcher platoon; picking up most of the at-bats against right handed batters. The problem with that is the Rays have a very similar situation with their other catcher Dioner Navarro. Navi is arb2 eligible and will make something in the neighborhood of ~$2 million dollars next season. I doubt the Rays will tie nearly $4 million dollars in two platoon players. There is also the question of Zaun playing 100-120 games behind the plate at 39. I could see the case for both sides of this option and honestly have no inclination of which way it will go. However, once the option is picked up or declined, we will have an answer to which way the Rays are intending to go.

Why The Rays Should Target Joaquin Benoit

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:01:04 -0000

Stopping short of just inviting every free agent reliever who possesses a fastball and a slider to spring training, I decided to look into a few individual cases that I think might fit the Rays' plans in 2010. The first name is Joaquin Benoit. The name has been mentioned in passing on the site for the past few weeks, but now it's time to actually take a look at him.

Benoit, 32, is one of those fastball/slider combo relievers that we see having success all over the league. While he isn't the extreme slider pitcher that Michael Wuertz is (over 60% last two seasons), he throws his fair share. He also isn't as fastball conscious as Grant Balfour or David Aardsma thanks to a nice little change up in his arsenal. Despite the lack of a plus plus heater, a person with knowledge of the Rangers system and Benoit described his slider as a "true slider" that has enhanced his K rate as a reliever. They also mentioned he has "good stuff to keep you interested, but can frustrate you." Sounds a lot like the aforementioned Balfour, who has been one of the best relievers in baseball the past two seasons.

Drawing even more comparisons to Balfour in a different way, Benoit fits the mold of an injured reliever who could be a steal for the next team that takes a chance on him being healthy. He missed the entire 2009 season after having shoulder surgery in 2008. Sources that I've reached out to say he started throwing in August and is a likely candidate to pitch in a winter league to showcase his arm for Major League suitors. Until he proves he's fully recovered the injury will remain a concern, but Benoit was a pretty effective reliever before the shoulder gave way.

	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2005*	87	3.72	3.95	4.54	8.07	3.93	0.93
2006	79.2	4.86	3.37	3.76	9.6	4.29	0.56
2007	82	2.85	3.17	4.05	9.55	3.07	0.66
2008	45	5	5.29	5.62	8.6	7	1.2

*45 innings came as a starting pitcher.

Benoit put up a lot of innings in 2006 and 2007, but also put up very good numbers. It seems that the workload took its toll on his arm, and as you can see his abbreviated 2008 wasn't particularly good. Of course, the hope is he can get back to those three years of sub 4 FIPs and continue to decrease his walks.

I hit on his stuff briefly at the top, but here's a little bit more.

	FB%	SL%	CH%
2005	61.5	20	13.4
2006	62.9	20.3	13.1
2007	58.6	19.7	20.7
2008	64.6	13.2	21.8

Interesting to see the decrease in sliders coinciding with the injury. Thoughts of Scott Kazmir pop up even though Kazmir's problems were elbow related. As a former starter, Benoit has multiple pitches including a curveball and a cutter, but sticks to these three as his main pitches.

	LD%	FB%	GB%	HR/FB%
2005	19	48.4	32.7	7.5
2006	18.6	44.1	37.3	5.2
2007	23.5	39.2	37.3	7.1
2008	17.3	55.9	26.8	8.5

Benoit went from a predominately flyball pitcher to a near neutral pitcher over the course of three seasons. In 2008, however, the flyballs increased over 15%. I'm guessing this was once again because of the injury.

	Swstr%	K%	uBB%	O-Swing%
2005	12.1	26.09	10.56	23
2006	12.4	24.5	9.8	26.4
2007	15.1	25.89	7.74	29.9
2008	13	20.57	15.79	30.7

If you look at the first category and aren't impressed then you should probably just stop reading. Benoit has been fantastic at getting swinging strikes which is a great sign for any pitcher. When Balfour was busy telling people to STFD in 2008, his swstr 11.2%. That would be low for Benoit.

Despite the nice numbers and the good stuff there is a fair amount of risk in signing Benoit , without this risk he would be at the top of every teams shopping list. The situation is far from ideal, and after the past few seasons we as Rays fans should be weary of any relief pitchers with injury histories: Troy Percival, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Nelson, just to name a few. However, without the payroll flexibility to sign an elite relief pitcher, gambling on the Benoits of the worlds is going to be a risk we must take. One scout recently told us "bullpen guys are fluky to begin with, but especially slider guys. You can get lucky and catch them in that special year where the slider is unhittable; always wise to try those guys."

And that's all I'm saying here. Benoit is not the answer if you're looking for an opening day closer, but over the course of the season he could be an above average piece with experience in the back-end of games that would mesh well with the nucleus of J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Lance Cormier and even Dan Wheeler, if he's around. After talking to some other people around the Rangers, some feel there is a chance he can even be brought in as a non-roster invitee. If the Rays could swing that, I would be ecstatic. Speaking with a person with front office experience, he said "Bullpens are crazy. It's a crap shoot; see what sticks." Tell me about it.

Rays Bullpen Backdraft

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:57:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Joe Maddon has blazed a trail from the dugout to the mound as the Maddon March rages on in September.

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A backdraft is a situation which can occur when a fire is starved of oxygen; consequently combustion ceases but the fuel gases and smoke remain at high temperature. If oxygen is re-introduced to the fire, eg. by opening a door to a closed room, combustion can restart often resulting in an explosive effect as the gases heat and expand.

That sort of describes what we've seen lately come the eight and ninth innings of games. Once Joe Maddon opens that bullpen door...boom. The Rays bullpen has been bad lately and that's putting it nicely. The pen has combined for 43 appearances and 26.2 innings of awful baseball this month. Once again, traditional or advanced metrics, it doesn't matter; they tell the same story.

This group of collective relievers has posted an ERA of 7.76 and an FIP of 6.86 in the month of September. We have not seen numbers that bad since the 2007 version of the Rays pen. The key is to not be shortsighted here. While there is no rhyme, reason or no sugar coating for how atrocious they have been recently, it is a small sample size compared to the full season.

If we look at this group's work over the course of the entire season, it should bring a few people back from the ledge. In 2009, the Rays bullpen has an ERA of 3.94 and a FIP of 4.35. Here is how they stack up to the bullpen of the current AL playoff teams...

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Rays	401.2	3.94	4.35
Yankees	445	4.00	4.5
Red Sox	410.1	3.66	4.01
Angels	417.2	4.59	4.41
Tigers	405	4.24	4.44

Overall, things have been pretty good. I don't here calls from any of these teams fans to blow up their bullpens and start from scratch. In fact, out of the five teams above only the Red Sox pen has been better this year. Also take into account that these numbers include the awful September as well as Troy Percival, Joe Nelson, Jeff Bennett and others.

Another thing I wanted to check was inherited runners. It seems that every night we see the same scenario; A Rays starter will be at or near the end of his rope. Maddon sends the starter back out to start the next inning and a runner reaches base. From there Maddon marches to the mound and here we go.

The Rays pen has been above average in terms of inherited runners scoring. The AL average for an inherited runner scoring is 35%. The Rays pen is at 32%. However, the Rays have allowed the second most inherited runners to score (102). How is this possible? Simple, the Rays pen has pitched to over 100 more inherited runners than the league average and faced 79 more inherited runners than the next closest team.

	IR	*IS%*
BAL	228	33
BOS	183	30
CHW	194	38
CLE	223	38
DET	201	34
KCR	236	46
LAA	203	29
MIN	222	36
NYY	219	27
OAK	198	36
SEA	151	31
TBR	315	32
TEX	191	37
TOR	164	37
AVG	209	35

It's pretty amazing when you think about how the pen has been used. A Rays reliever has entered the game with a runner on base 202 times this year. The next closest team is Cleveland with 139. Grant Balfour alone has inherited 63 runners (IS 29%). That is 14 more than the next reliever, who happens to be Randy Choate with 49.

As we head into the offseason there will certainly be turnover as there should. Andrew Friedman and his staff recognize bullpen volatility and are always looking at ways to improve their pen. Names like Percival, Nelson, Shouse, Bradford, Springer and Isringhausen will be gone freeing up space and money for the next crop. However, there is a solid core here that should remain in tact. J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Lance Cormier are all under team control. And if we are smart about this and look at the whole season compared to the last two weeks, that's a good foundation.

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Howell	63.2	2.97	3.67
Wheeler	50.2	3.55	4.69
Balfour	60.2	4.9	3.75
Cormier	70.1	3.33	3.86

As was the case last season, if we can move Dan Wheeler and his shinny ERA I wouldn't be opposed to that. However, the other three should be back and probably at a combined $5 million dollars or less. Throw in a Dale Thayer type from within the organization, a LOOGY, and the Rays should once again have a thrifty, yet solid, bullpen.

One of the more annoying things about the upcoming offseason will be all the calls for a proven veteran closer. Look at the market. Do you want to throw money at Fernando Rodney? Jose Valverde? Trevor Hoffman? While I disagree with the notion of paying a reliever $8-10 million dollars (unless he is a true elite reliever), the Rays will have the flexibility to add a medium price ranged reliever (Joaquin Benoit? Kiko Calero?) should they chose to.

We all get frustrated and emotional at times especially during an eight game streak in which every game seems like a repeat of the last. However, sometimes we need to just step back, take a look and realize things could be worse. Afterall, 2007 was just two years ago and that was a whole year of pain not just two weeks.

O's 8, Rays 7: A Win? A Win!

Stacey — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 04:46:26 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

4 months ago: Baltimore Orioles' Brian Roberts hits a grand slam off Tampa Bay Rays reliever Lance Cormier during the sixth inning of a baseball game Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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The O's beat the Rays tonight to avoid the sweep but as usual, didn't make it easy. Starter Brian Matusz pitched a great game right up until his last batter and big nights at the plate for Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold were enough to get Matusz his second win on the year.

The Orioles were unable to capitalize on early opportunities against Rays starter James Shields. They got to him for five hits in the first three innings but couldn't score. They finally broke through in the 5th as Felix Pie, who had reached base via single and moved to third on a Brian Roberts hit, scored on a Cesar Izturis ground out. They'd only get one in the 5th, but it was just an appetizer for things to come.

Nolan Reimold led off the 6th inning with a ground ball to Evan Longoria. Longoria airmailed the throw and Nolan Reimold advanced to second base. After a fly out by New Aubrey, Shields sandwiched a Chad Moeller strikeout between walks of Ty Wiggington and Felix Pie. With the bases loaded and two outs, Joe Maddon went to his bullpen for Lance Cormier. The former Oriole is having a great year with Tampa Bay but wouldn't show that to the Orioles tonight. Cormier fell behind Brian Roberts 3-1 and delivered an inside pitch that both Brian Roberts and Game Day thought was a ball, but the umpire didn't. The Rays probably thought they caught a break by avoiding the bases loaded walk, but their minds were certainly changed in a hurry when Brian put the next pitch into the right field stands for his fourth career grand slam.

Just like that the other Brian went into the bottom of the 6th with a four run lead. Matusz had pitched a great game to that point. After allowing back-to-back doubles to Ben Zobrist and Longoria in the first that scored one run, Matusz allowed just one hit, a 2nd inning single to Dioner Navarro, over the next four innings. After finally getting a lead, however, he ran into trouble. Singles by Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria set the table for Ben Zobrist, who came through with a 3 run HR to right, cutting the O's lead to 5-4. The HR knocked Matusz out of the game and made his start look worse than it was. Matusz allowed 7 hits over his 5.1 innings, and struck out 7 for the second straight game. The best news is that Matusz didn't allow a walk, something he'd had some trouble with since arriving in the MLB. He kept a very good offense down, at one point retiring 13 of 14 batters. Not too shabby.

With the O's up by only one run in the 7th, Lance Cormier continued to help out his old team by walking Luke Scott and Nick Markakis. With two on and no outs, Russ Springer entered the game to face Nolan Reimold. The rookie outfielder picked up his teammate, the rookie starting pitcher, with a line drive over the left field fence. Just like that the O's were again up by four runs.

Kam Mickolio, who had relieved Matusz in the 6th, made short work of Navarro, Upton, and Bartlett in the 7th. Mickolio still has yet to allow a run in the majors this year, now in 8.1 innings. Unfortunately Kam couldn't pitch the rest of the game and Danys Baez came in to try and hold the 4 run lead. Both he and Mark Hendrickson were unsuccessful as Baez loaded the bases and Hendrickson unloaded them. With two outs and the O's lead back to just one run, new dad Jim Johnson cleaned up their mess by retiring Gregg Zaun. JJ returned for the 9th and earned his 5th save on the year, striking out Evan Longoria to end the game. O's win!

Poll

Who was tonight's Most Birdland Player (MBP)?

Brian Roberts (2-5, Grand Slam)

159 votes

Nolan Reimold (3 Run HR that turned out to be the difference)

33 votes

Brian Matusz (7 K, 0 BB)

35 votes

Kam Mickolio (Awesome)

23 votes

250 votes | Poll has closed

Lance Cormier Graduates From Mop-Up Man To Valuable Rays Reliever

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 17:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Lance Cormier's role has evolved from mop-up man to one of their more recent set-up men in a span of months with the Rays.

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It's no secret that before the season I was self-appointed as the chairman of the Lance Cormier fan club. Since calling for the Rays to sign him in December of last year to arguing for him to be included on the roster out of spring, Lance Cormier has been to me what Gregg Zaun is to R.J. Cormier started the season as the Rays long man and got plenty of work early on thanks to ineffectiveness from Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann.

In April and May, Cormier made 18 appearances and racked up 37 innings. The Rays finally started getting good outings from their starting pitching and the need for a long man became less and less as the summer rolled on. In June and July, Cormier made just 13 appearances for a total of 18.1 innings. Cormier went through long stretches of inactivity including seeing no game action from 5/28-6/10 (12 days). From June 23^rd through July 19^th he made just four appearances. To his credit, Cormier has remained solid throughout the long patches of live game action.

	G	IP
April	9	18
May	9	19
June	5	7
July	8	11.1
August	3	3.1

Not only has Cormier's workload seen its ups and downs, but so has the situations he's been used. Take a look at the month to month pLI (Average Leverage Index) and gmLI (Average Leverage Index when he enters a game) for him this year.

	pLI	gmLI
April	0.22	0.26
May	0.81	0.93
June	0.7	0.61
July	0.27	0.29
August	1.75	1.93

In April, he was pretty much Mr. Mop-Up. One way or the other, Cormier saw a lot of innings in one sided games. In May, the Rays gave him a little bit more rope, but slowly took back some of that rope in June. By July he was back to being low-leverage king. However, with the injury to Chad Bradford as well as the game of roster shuffle being played by Andrew Friedman, Cormier has once again seen his role change.

Over the past two weeks, Cormier's name has been called from the pen as many times as J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler. You'll also notice that he has earned the trust of his coaches and is now being used in big boy situations. SSS Alert, but in the month of August, his pLI is second highest only to J.P. Howell and his gmLI is the highest of any including Howell. Maybe we should start calling him Mr. Freeze.

Way back when signing Cormier was only a figment of my imagination, I compared him to Chad Bradford. No, he's not quite the extreme ground baller that Bradford is, but he is a predominately ground ball pitcher, who does not get many strikeouts and benefits from an above average defense. I was pretty surprised to see how true that comparison has played out. Over the last 10 seasons, only seven relief pitchers have pitched at least 50 innings with a sub 2.80 ERA and a K/9 of less than the 4.6 Cormier has right now. The Rays had one of those relievers on their team last year. His name is Chad Bradford. However, despite the fact that 2008 Bradford and 2009 Cormier had identical HR/9 rates, Cormier's 3.38 FIP is 0.70 lower that Bradford's 4.08.

With the addition of Russ Springer and the ineffectiveness of Jeff Bennett is Cormier's old role, there is a chance that Cormier could return to his low-level throne. Nonetheless, given the recent success he's had in mid-high leverage situations that might not happen. Cormier is arbitration eligible after the season and should see a nice raise of a little over a million dollars, but given the fact the he is about to put up back to back above average seasons he will once again be a bullpen bargain for the Rays.

Why High Priced Non-Elite Relievers Aren't Worth the Money

Tommy Rancel — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 07:00:15 -0000

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We've heard plenty of times this year about how the Rays need to add a veteran pitcher with closing experience. After Troy Percival's back, arm, and legs gave out along with Jason Isringhausen's arm blowing up, the Rays were left with a rag tag group of pitchers. No current member has held the Rays closer except for Dan Wheeler, who held it ever so briefly in Houston. Not only has the Rays pen not sunk without a true anchor, they've actually been really good. Coming as Thursday afternoon, the Rays were second in bullpen ERA (3.48) and fourth in FIP (3.89). The group also boasts the third best K/BB and fourth best HR/9. Not bad for a group with no names.

Here are the monthly breakdowns...

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/BB
April	63.1	3.84	4.1	1.81
May	101	4.19	4.6	1.84
June	70	1.67	2.61	3.1
July	66.1	4.21	4.08	2.5
August	14.2	2.45	3.28	2.75

The Rays pen was really never as bad as we thought. Sure, May was not pretty, but it was a far cry from Rays bullpens of the past. The Rays May bullpen also included veteran closer, Troy Percival, who allowed six earned runs in six innings and had a 9.00 ERA/7.57 FIP on the month. Since then, J.P. Howell and Co. have shut down teams more often than not. Every bullpen has a few hiccups along the way, but the Rays have a solid nucleus of guys with no defined titles. " As Dan Wheeler said the Rays don't need defined roles, but everyone has a job and understand that job. "Most of us just kind of understand when we're going to pitch." said Wheeler.

Could the Rays use another one of those non-descript arms like Jason Frasor or Michael Wuertz? Definitely, but the days of paying a veteran reliever a lot of money are likely over for the Rays. Just look at the production they've gotten from the collective group of Jason Isringhausen, Troy Percival, Chad Bradford, Joe Nelson and Brian Shouse aka the Rays relievers who are 34 years or older.

	IP	ERA	FIP	Salary
Percival	11.1	6.35	6.86	$4.45
Bradford	4.1	2.08	1.69	$3.50
Isringhausen	8	2.25	4.2	$0.75
Shouse	16.1	5.51	5.95	$1.35
Nelson	40.1	4.02	5.62	$1.30
	79.4	4.042	4.864	$11.35

Thats over $11 million dollars for what equates to be around league average production. If you take away Nelson, who is currently in Durham, the Rays will pay over $10 million dollars in salary to four relievers who have pitched less than 40 innings combined. Percival and Izzy are done for the season. Bradford is on the DL for the second time with no time table of returning (although I'd expect September at the latest) and Shouse is just returning from his injury. Percival's production was just awful even if it was just a small sample size. I think we all know that had he continued it would've only gotten worse. Isringhausen was ok, but was too small of a sample. Bradford and Shouse are still effective when used properly, but we have guys like Lance Cormier and Randy Choate, who have sub 4 FIPs and will make just a little over a million dollars combined.

The signings of Nelson and Shouse were not bad signings because of their length. Both essentially are on one year deals even though the Rays hold Nelson's rights for future seasons and a club option on Shouse for 2010. I'm not saying avoid all veteran relief pitchers, but signing non elite level veteran relievers to anything more than a one year deal is volitle. I'm not telling any of you guys anything new . Getting less production with a greater injury risk for more money just doesn't make sense for any team let alone the Rays. Most "experts" will continue to say the Rays need a closer, and I'm sure on all the offseason "wish lists" there will be "closer" in the box next to the Rays, but it's not necessary.

The Rays almost certainly will once again pass on the big name who have the closer title attached to them inflating their price. Instead, the team should seriously consider locking up J.P. Howell, who is one of the games true young elite relievers, as well as continue to bargain shop for the next Howell, Grant Balfour or Lance Cormier.

The Best Bullpen in Rays History

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 20:32:54 -0000

The title did belong to the 2008 bullpen, until now:

Year	tRA	FIP	AL R/G
2009	4.41	3.87	4.81
2008	4.58	4.18	4.78
2007	5.93	5.31	4.9
2006	5.34	4.87	4.97
2005	5.41	4.86	4.76
2004	5.01	4.4	5.01
2003	5.15	4.68	4.86
2002	N/A	5.2	4.81
2001	N/A	4.63	4.86
2000	N/A	4.49	5.3
1999	N/A	4.45	5.18
1998	N/A	4.36	5.01

A little over half of a season remains, so the argument can be made that I'm being a bit trigger-happy with the proclamation. Still, the front office has successfully avoided regression by adding a surplus of depth and useful parts that most glazed over when talking about the Rays bullpen this year. The Rays best additions were Lance Cormier and a pair of LOOGY. None of which came very expensive. Joe Nelson might be the biggest bust in the entire pen and his salary is 1.3 million.

Hitting on every single signing is an unabashed fantasy, but the facts are the team has shown an affinity for low-cost relievers and the propensity to select the best of the bunch. Luck absolutely plays into the equation - from injuries, to a downed-market, to teams potentially undervaluing ‘soft-tossers' - the reality of it all is this; the Rays are running out the best pen in team history and most of the success has came without two of their higher paid relievers.