SB Nation - Wilfredo Ledezma

Pirates Sign Wil Ledezma to Minor League Deal

Charlie — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:39:24 -0000

The Pirates have signed former Tigers, Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks and Nationals pitcher Wilfredo Ledezma to a minor league deal. Ledezma can start, throws pretty hard (his fastball averages about 93), has a reasonable slider, is a lefty and will be just 29 in January, but he has never pitched very well in the majors and seems to encounter control problems there. He also has pronounced flyball tendencies, and he doesn't shut down lefties, which would make him less than ideal as a LOOGY (lefty one-out guy). I think the Pirates just signed him for depth--in case of emergency, he can start or relieve. Given the Bucs' bullpen troubles, I guess it wouldn't surprise me if he came north as a reliever, but I don't want him to. He's a perfectly capable AAA pitcher, but that's about it.

The Streaking Diamondbacks - both good and bad

Jim McLennan — Mon, 11 May 2009 02:37:15 -0000

Two impressive streaks were kept alive this afternoon. One positive, in the shape of Justin Upton's ongoing 17-game hitting streak; the other, not so appreciated, as Max Scherzer extended his streak of career-opening starts without a win to thirteen. Let's take a look at both of those, and see how they stack up. [Note: it may be hard to believe now, but play-by-play data for games was not always kept for games, with consistent records dating back only to 1954. Before that, the records are spotty, and so we can't say anything conclusively with regard to streaks. Unless stated otherwise, all numbers in the rest of the piece refer to the time since the start of 1954.]

Upton's hitting

Justin Upton's 17-game hitting streak is particularly impressive, given he is only aged 21. Here are the players that age or younger, who have had streaks of seventeen games or more:

Player name	Games	Dates
Kent Hrbek	23	April 17-May 13, 1982
Willie McCovey	22	August 17- September 10, 1959
Edgar Renteria		July 25-August 16, 1996
Tommy Davis	20	July 30-August 20, 1960
Alex Rodriguez		August 16-September 4, 1996
Tony Kubek	18	June 30-July 21, 1957
Rennie Stennett		August 22-September 10, 1971
Terry Puhl		August 11-September 2, 1978
Bob Horner		July 22-August 5, 1979
Orlando Cepeda	17	July 15-August 1, 1958
Terry Puhl		August 11-September 2, 1977
Roberto Alomar		August 23-September 12, 1989
Albert Pujols		July 31-August 16, 2001
Jose Reyes		July 30-August 18, 2003
Ryan Zimmerman		June 28-July 18, 2006
Justin Upton		April 24-May 10, 2009

A couple of things to note - the last player to put together such a streak was Ryan Zimmerman, who we faced this weekend, and is putting together another very nice run at the time of writing [28 games at the time of writing, the best by a third-baseman since Wade Boggs had the same in 1985]. I also note how most of these runs happen later in the season - Hrbek's the only other one of the sixteen to be entirely before the All-Star break. Part of me wonders, if this is what Upton's like in the early season, what can we look forward to when he 'warms up'? But wait a moment: where does his streak sit on the all-time list of hitting streaks by Diamondbacks' players? Here is the top ten for Arizona:

Player name	Games	Dates
Luis Gonzalez	30	April 11-May 18, 1999
Tony Womack	22	May 2-May 29, 2000
Danny Bautista	21	April 7-April 30, 2004
Matt Williams	19	May 26-June 18, 1999
Junior Spivey	18	May 31-July 4, 2002
Mark Grace		May 18-June 10, 2001
Luis Gonzalez	17	Sept 18, 1999-April 8, 2000
Stephen Drew		July 29-August 15, 2008
Justin Upton		April 24-May 10, 2009
Two tied	16

Seems like the opposite pattern there to the first list above, with only Drew's run from last year entirely after the All-Star break. Maybe it's the desert warmth, but Arizona hitters seem to peak earlier in the season than the league in general. In terms of offensive production, the best OPS was - perhaps surprisingly - Grace's streak, as he posted a line of .422/.519/.719, for an OPS of 1.238. However, Upton is very, very close: after today's performance, three hits including a double, plus a walk, his line over the past seventeen games is .393/.479/.754, giving him an almost-identical OPS of 1.233. That said, Gonzo's line of .400/.466/.696 (1.162 OPS), over a period of more than five weeks, is equally impressive.

Scherzer's unwinning-ness

As Snakecharmer already documented in tonight's recap, Max Scherzer has gone thirteen starts without tasting victory to open his career, something only a dozen or so pitchers have done since 1961. However, perhaps the most startling thing about it has been the quality of the outings. Today was not one of Max's best appearances, but he still allowed only four runs. After giving up five runs in his first ever start, that's something Max has done consistently. This afternoon was his 12th straight start with four runs or less, and his ERA over that time of just 3.20.

To do so without tasting victory for so long is equally remarkable, among pitchers at any stage of their career. Today's game ties Max Scherzer for tenth on the list - and only two men have endured without a W longer, since Max was born in July 1984. Craig McMurtry started a run of fifteen starts for Atlanta later that season, which ran all the way until July 2006, posting an ERA of 3.99. And Darrell May of the Royals, had a 16-game span, running from September 2002 through late June 2003, where he allowed four or less runs every game, and never tasted victory.

May suffered about as much bad luck as Scherzer during the streak, given that in six of the games he left with the score tied, and on three occasions, he had the lead. However, the offense couldn't push another run across for him and/or the bullpen coughed things up. He must surely have thought the streak had stopped on June 16, 2003, when he pitched six shutout innings and entered the seventh with an 8-0 lead. Even though the shutout ended, and he was subsequently lifted, the seventh finished with the score still 8-2 in his favor and a 99% Win Probability - only for the bullpen to allow three in the eighth and three more in the ninth, blowing the lead. While nothing so disastrous has happened to Scherzer (yet!), today was the fourth time he has had a lead on departure, which was subsequently not held.

This is probably partly because of the shortness of his starts - he has yet to throw more than six innings, in 13 attempts, interestingly, matching the streak at the start of Johan Santana's career. Scherzer has a long way to go to match the current record of Jason Hammel, who took 25 attempts to go past six, while Dustin Moseley of the Angels is sitting on the DL, but has an active run of 23 to open his career. The contest for all-time 'bullpen enemy' isn't even close: Wilfredo Ledezma - designated for assignment by the Nationals on April 21 - has retired a batter in the seventh inning just once during his career, in his second-ever start, on July 13, 2003. Since then, he has made 38 starts in almost six years and never gone past six. Let's hope Max never comes anywhere close to that!

Tuesday Nats Stats, Friday Edition: Embrace the Suck*

Doghouse — Fri, 01 May 2009 19:48:10 -0000

More photos » by H. RUMPH JR - AP

7 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher Saul Rivera stands on the mound after Philadelphia Phillies Raul Ibanez hit a solo home run in the eight inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 28, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr )

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(ed. note - "Tonight's Post Game is Up...HERE or just below "Nats Stats..")

Another week, another 7 extraordinarily painful games. There are some bright spots, to be sure, and I'll get to them. But first, we're going to tear the painful statistical band-aid off, scab and all, and dive right into the most embarrassing of the unpleasant truths. What Ails the Nats after the jump...

(Note: stats from baseball-reference and FanGraphs, as of 4/30/09)

*A fatalistic military expression along the lines of SNAFU ("Situation Normal, All [Fouled] Up"), roughly equivalent to the French "C'est la vie."

Nice ballclub... too bad about their record

Yeah, this is the worst part. All the crappity-crap we're going to see below would be so much better if only we could catch a frakkin' break once and a while. But no, the misplays, men left on base, and walks always come back to haunt us in the win-loss column. Speaking of which, the Nationals record stands at 5-16, last in the NL East, last in the NL, last in MLB... a win/loss % of .238--we're approaching Mendoza territory!

With 94 runs scored and 124 runs allowed so far, our Pythagorean W/L percentage is .364. In other words, our record should be 8-13 or 7-14 based on how much we're scoring and how many runs we're allowing. That means we're losing close games through bad luck or misadventure (mostly the latter...) and only winning when we score so damned many runs that not even our bullpen can screw it up, so the other team stops batting. That .364 projects out to 59-103 on the season, by the way--look familiar? Yeah, ouch. Even if we do as well as we "should," we're looking at a repeat of 2008 with our current performance.

Remember when our bullpen was good?

Yeah, me neither. Okay, I do, but it's been so spirit-crushingly bad this season that it seems impossible that it was ever any better than awful. Just how bad?

Team save percentage is 33%, lowest in the NL (average is 59%). We have the second-most blown saves (6), but that's only because we've had fewer save opportunities than the Brewers (7 BS out of 12 chances, vs 6 of 9 for us--they still have the higher %).
The bullpen has a cumulative record of 0-7 in relief, the worst in the NL, with an ERA of 5.40.
Peripherals-wise, the bullpen has a WHIP of 1.565, giving up 1.23 HR/9, striking out 7.2/9, and walking 6.3/9, for a K:BB ratio of 1.2. Would you sign that pitcher?
Both Hinckley and Wells are walking more than a batter per IP. In fact, the bullpen as a whole has walked only 2 fewer batters than the starting rotation--in about two-thirds as many IP!
Ledezma and Rivera both have WHIPs over 2.0 (enjoy Syracuse!).
Rivera and Hanrahan are both giving up about 1 HR per 3 IP.
We're tied for most "wins lost" with 4 (that is, games where the starter left the game with a lead, but the team went on to lose).

Too many walks + not enough strikeouts = unhappy Nats fans.

At least the rotation is solid! Right? RIGHT?!

The rotation has 7 QS so far this season, ahead of only the Phillies (6). We're allowing 5.48 runs per game, again ahead of only Philly (5.60). Starters are throwing 5.2 innings per game, tied for last in the NL with Colorado. The short outings may be why we average only 86 pitches per start, which leads the NL--GO NATS! (Sorry, LOU--that was a sarcastic 'GO NATS.')

The rotation's ERA is 4.99, with a 1.618 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 5.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.3 K/BB. Would you sign that pitcher?
Both Martis and Cabrera are walking nearly two batters for every one they strike out, although Lannan and J. Zimm are striking out 2.5 for every batter walked.
Bright side? Martis and Cabrera are only striking out 3 batters per 9 IP... Lannan, Oslen, and J. Zimm are striking out about 6 per 9 IP.
DC, Martis, and J. Zimm are giving up fewer than 1 HR/9 (Lannan surrenders 2.3 gopher balls per 9).
Lannan and J. Zimm have WHIPs of 1.427 and 1.324, respectively--not bad. But the other three all have WHIPs in the 1.7 range.

So far, we have ONE pitcher who seems to be doing everything right--but he's only thrown two games so far this season. How long will he be able to keep up his drool-inciting 2.38 ERA? (Consider that Olsen and Martis have 6ish ERAs, while Lannan and DC are around 4.5.) The rotation does seem to be improving, and it's better than the bullpen. Does that seem like "faint praise" to you? It does to me.

I don't even want to hear about the fielding

Oh, you're going to hear about the fielding. Washington leads the league in errors (33) and trails in fielding % (0.972). We're first in Passed Balls (4), last in runners Caught Stealing (also 4), and 14th in CS% (22). We're 13th in Defensive Efficiency (percentage of balls put into play that turn into outs) at 0.687, and we have also used the most players as fielders, with 34 so far this season (second-most is 30). Our team UZR/150 (a measure of how many runs above or below average your combined defensive performance is over a season) is second-worst in the NL, at -8.5 runs.

Zimmy is a bright spot at the hot corner, with an UZR/150 of +27 runs so far, 3rd in the majors (2nd in the NL). He is, however, the only bright spot.
The heroic NJ merits only a -1.9 UZR/150 at first--a bit below average, and comparable to stone-handed Lance Berkman (-1.8).
Normally-reliable fielders like Kearns (-26.9) and Dukes (-22.8) have struggled defensively so far this year, as have younger players like Hernandez (-28.6) and Gonzalez (-18.6), who have yet to live up to their defensive promise.

We expected some fumbles out of Dunn and Willingham, but the errors have been almost as painful as the pitching. To put it into numbers, having a team ERA of 5.15 instead of a league-average ERA of 4.42 costs us a bit under 12 games over the course of the season. If the four fielders I noted above played that much below average for an entire season, it would cost us about 9 games.

So, why shouldn't we form a mob and go throw beer cups at Clint?

Because we all dig the long ball. Craptastic as the rest of the Nationals' play is, the offense is one area that's humming along nicely. Is Zim on a team-record hitting streak, with his first multi-HR game of the season? Check! Is Big Walky on pace for 40+ HR and leading the league in walks? Check! Does every regular starter have an OPS+ above 100 (now that Guz is back at SS instead of the General)? Check!

Unfortunately, our 4.48 runs scored per game is below the league average of 4.64, only good enough for 10th in the NL. Once you get past the starting 8, it's pretty much Scrubsville; overall, team OPS+ is a slightly-below-average 98.

Can we form a mob and go throw beer cups at Clint anyway?

Well, I'm not saying we shouldn't form a mob and go throw beer cups at Clint. Mind you, that would go against Nationals Park's green image. It's going to be a tough season until the rotation finishes settling in and Manny can bang some fundamentals into our fielders and rewrite Plan Z for the bullpen... Hmm, maybe we could form another mob after we throw beer cups at Clint, and then go recycle them. See? That wasn't so hard! Plan Z, here we come!

Update: They showed ME!

As my reward for prognosticating, Friday's game against the Cards went against all the trends: JZ struggled and gave up 5 ER, the defense made no errors, the duck pond surrendered only 1 run in 3.1 IP (including Hanny fanning 2 of 3 batters faced), and the offense plated nothing outside of TAWH's HR. However, Zim the Elder extended his hitting streak to 20 games, while Zim the Younger struck out 6 and walked none in 5.2 IP (too bad about all the dingers). I'm thinking about throwing helmet sundaes at Clint next game.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:26:26 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

He may not be so good at high fives, but Todd Coffey's other skills made up for it yesterday.

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Some things to read while playing D&D with Vin Diesel.

Jeff Suppan surprised many of us with a solid performance yesterday, but how much weight do you put on it? Tom H. called yesterday Suppan's "Redemption Day." Two-Fisted Slopper called Suppan's outing a "great success."

With that said, Citi Field is already being credited as one of baseball's greatest pitcher's parks. Buster Olney and Ryan Braun both noted how hard it is to hit the ball out. It's likely not a coincidence that the two teams averaged less than three runs per contest this weekend despite starts from Jeff Suppan, Livan Hernandez and Nelson Figueroa.

For context, Nelson Figueroa pitched at about the same level as Jeff Suppan yesterday, and after the game he was designated for assignment.

A couple of other Citi Field tidbits: Here's Brian Anderson's view from the broadcast booth and Cute Sports' rundown of complaints about the views from the visitors bullpen and radio booth.

There were, however, no complaints about the performance of Todd Coffey. Coffey recorded eight outs for the save yesterday. Even though a pitcher who completes the last three innings of a win is awarded a save regardless of the score, Coffey's 2.2 inning save yesterday was the 17th longest save since the start of the 2008 season, and the longest in a game decided by less than four runs. Michael Hunt thinks the Brewer bullpen may have reached a turning point. Certainly, Trevor Hoffman's projected Sunday return won't hurt.

So, having salvaged one win in New York, the Brewers move on to Philadelphia, where they're not looking to avenge their 2008 playoff defeat. That's a good thing, because trading a playoff series loss for a win in April wouldn't be fair anyway.

Jason Kendall might get more than his usual day off this week, as it's being reported that he's playing with a sore arm after being hit by a foul tip over the weekend. I don't think anyone around here will be too upset if Mike Rivera gets a few extra starts.

For some, though, it's a story when their arm isn't sore. Mark Rogers hit 97 on the gun in his second outing back with Brevard County. He's on a 50 pitch limit for the first half of the season, but has pitched two trouble-free outings. (h/t FanShot)

Across the league:

Angels: Vladimir Guerrero has a torn pec muscle, will miss at least a month and may not play the field again in 2009.
Astros: Scheduled a press conference for tonight and are expected to announce they've picked up Cecil Cooper's option for 2010.
Blue Jays: Placed Michael Barrett on the DL with a torn muscle and possible fracture in his shoulder.
Braves: Designated Blaine Boyer for assignment.
Mets: Placed Brian Schneider on the DL with a strained muscle in his back.
Nationals: Placed CF Roger Bernadina on the DL with a broken ankle and Cristian Guzman on the DL with a hamstring strain. They also designated Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell for assignment and signed Ryan Zimmerman to a five year deal worth $45 million.
Padres: Placed Walter Silva on the DL with a forearm strain.
Rangers: Designated reliever Josh Rupe for assignment.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson, who had been playing in AAA Pawtucket, has decided to retire.
Twins: Designated Phil Humber for assignment and claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Rockies. Humber was considered a key part of the deal that sent Johan Santana to the Mets.

This is small sample size in all of its glory, but there's a lot of early talk about home runs flying out of New Yankee Stadium, and phrases like pitcher's nightmare are being thrown about. Maybe someone is already doing this, but it certainly doesn't look like it: If you can design a system that analyzes new ballparks and estimates their park factor before they open, you might be in line to make a lot of money.

Oh, and Mr. Met has an office at Citi Field.

Drink up.

Phillies vs Nationals: April 13, 15, and 16

Matt Swartz — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 04:21:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

The Phillies head to Washington to face the Nationals this week (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

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We know who the Phillies are, but in case you need a recap of our splits, check out the article from the opener here.

As far as the Nationals, they are 0-6 so far, and the Phillies hope they can make them 0-9. They have a few solid players but are definitely a beatable team overall. Their pitching is really suspect, and none of their pitchers really seem likely to dominate us. Here is my preview of the splits and breakdowns of the Washington Nationals:

LINEUP

The Nationals have a decent lineup, but they have not exactly managed their resources perfectly meaning that they have five guys who could legitimately play LF/RF/1B, and two are on the bench. They have two solid lefties with great eyes right in the middle of their lineup, and it will be important for the Phillies to get past them. The Nationals do not have much power outside of these guys and Zimmerman though and they don't have very good contact hitters either. Other than Johnson and Dunn in the middle of their lineup, the rest of their lineup is actually right-handed or switch-hitters.

CF Lastings Milledge (R)

projection average (proj): .280/.350/.435
projected BB/PA (bb): 7.5%
projected K/AB (k): 20%
career gb% (gb): 46%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 11%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): average in general
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): tends to swing at pitches out of strike zone more than others
righty/lefty (r/l): 3.2 k/bb vs rhp, 2.3 k/bb vs lhp; otherwise similar
home/away (h/a): .793/.657; 2.3 k/bb at home, 3.7 k/bb on road
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): struggles a lot against power pitchers

SS Cristian Guzman (S)

proj: .295/.335/.420
bb: 5%
k: 12%
gb: 55%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: solid ground ball rate puts him around .315-.320
s/c/z: fair strike judgment but plus contact skill
r/l: poorer strike zone judgment as rhb but more power
h/a: .743/.645 career
p/o: more of a pull hitter against rhb, but some pull tendencies against lhb too
other: none

3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)

proj: .285/.350/.475
bb: 8.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: tends to hit around .315 on BIP since he hits a lot of groundballs in the whole
s/c/z: about average across the board
r/l: .758/.931; 2.6 k/bb vs rhp, 1.2 vs lhp; and slightly more power against lhp too
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF Adam Dunn (L)

proj: .245/.380/.490
bb: 17.5%
k: 31%
gb: 34%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: somewhat low, around .290 career, mostly bc of low babip on groundballs due to the shift
s/c/z: good eye, laying off pitches out of the strike zone; poor contact skills but not as bad as you might expect; sees few strikes
r/l: .932/.833; biggest difference is 1.4 k/bb vs rhb and 2.0 k/bb vs lhb
h/a: nothing abnormal
p/o: definitepull hitter
other: nothing abnormal; power lefties tend to do better with men on, but he hasn't in his career

1B Nick Johnson (L)

proj: .270/.410/.470
bb: 17%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: doesn't tend to do well on groundballs in general, but does decently otherwise, about average
s/c/z: does not swing much, but especially good at laying off balls; contact rate about average though
r/l: no major split at all
h/a: no major split at all
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: much better babip with runners on thus far; probably hooks ball in hole a lot

RF Austin Kearns (R)

proj: .260/.350/.410
bb: 11%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6.5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye with average contact skill
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhp, 1.1 k/bb vs lhp; only .775/.827 split overall career though
h/a: no major split
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well but slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

2B Ronnie Belliard (R)

proj: .270/.330/.420
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 46%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: below average by a little due to lack of power
s/c/z: average across the board
r/l: .727/.828
h/a: .773/.739
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Jesus Flores (R)

proj: .245/.305/.410
bb: 6.5%
k: 26%
gb: 42%
iff: 17%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been above average but will probably fall due to high popup rate
s/c/z: hacker but pithchers still challenge him
r/l: 5.1 k/bb vs rhp, 3.5 k/bb vs lhp; .633/.802 ops split but mostly due to very high babip vs lhp that probably won't persist
h/a: struggles more at home so far in career but probably just noise
p/o: very distinct pull hitter; only rarely goes the other way at all
other: far more successful against finesse pitchers thus far with lots of trouble against power pitchers

BENCH

The Nats should have a solid couple of hitters on the bench every day, so they do have some pinch hitting threats.

C Josh Bard (S)

proj: .265/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 15%
gb: 50%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: about average overall; a little below average on groundballs since he doesn't get many infield hits and a bit high on flyballs since he doesn't pop out in the infield much
s/c/z: above average contact skill, average strike zone judgment
r/l: no major split
h/a: better k/bb at home (1.3 vs 1.8) and more power at home, but babip higher on road; probably still better at home despite babip causing reverse platoon split
p/o: spreads ball around as lhb but slight pull hitter as rhb
other: none

C Wil Nieves (R)

proj: .245/.290/.325
bb: 5.5%
k: 14%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 5%
babip: lack of power leads to it being below average since its low on flyballs; lack of speed leads to pretty low babip on groundballs too
s/c/z: poor strike zone judgment, but not terrible
r/l: seems typical but not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around evenly
other: none

IF Alberto Gonzalez (R)

proj: .260/.310/.380
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 17%
ifh: 4%
babip: low due to high infield fly rate and low infield hit rate
s/c/z: patient but not especially good discipline; good contact skill though
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: tends to be a pull hitter but not much info
other: none

1B/OF Josh Willingham (R)

proj: .265/.355/.485
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: low swing rate in general, average contact skill
r/l: better k/bb and power numbers vs lhb but reverse babip split masks that
h/a: seemingly better on the road
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Elijah Dukes (R)

proj: .265/.365/.465
bb: 14%
k: 23%
gb: 44%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: has been low but seems to profile as about average
s/c/z: good eye but poor contact skill
r/l: more power against lhp but not much difference otherwisee
h/a: much better k/bb at home: 1.2 vs 2.0
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

UTL Willie Harris (L)

proj: .255/.345/.390
bb: 10.5%
k: 19.5%
gb: 48%
iff: 10%
ifh: 7%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: does not swing much
r/l: better vs rhp, primarily due to k/bb difference (1.5 vs 3.2)
h/a: not much difference
p/o: pull hitter
other:

ROTATION

The Phillies will need to stay patient against all three starters they face this series. John Lannan is probably going to be the hardest since he is better against lefties, and actually better all around. Daniel Cabrera has major control problems and major troubles with lefties. The Phillies should be able to hit him well if they are patient and wait on their pitches. Martis seems somewhat prone to wildness as well, and as a mediocre righty, he does not seem like a great threat to the Phillies. Lannan is actually a pretty decent pitcher, and as a groundball inducing lefty, he will be tough for the Phils to face. He does not strike out many guys and he does struggle a lot against righties.

MONDAY STARTER: Daniel Cabrera (R)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 24% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .681/.827; 1.5 k/bb vs 1.2
h/a: many more hr surrendered at home but slightly better k/bb

WEDNESDAY STARTER: Shairon Martis (R)

proj avg: 5.10 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 20% ch, 10% sl, 9% cb
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

THURSDAY STARTER: John Lannan (L)

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 60% fb, 16% sl, 12% cb, 11% ch, 1% ct
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 2.3 vs lhb; .719/.840 ops
h/a: slightly better on road but not much info

NOT FACING US THIS TIME: Scott Olsen (L)

proj avg: 4.75 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 63% fb, 20% ch, 17% sl
r/l: 1.6 k/bb vs rhb, 2.8 k/bb vs lhb; .827/.686 ops
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

NOT FACING US THIS TIME & STILL IN MINORS TIL 4/19: Jordan Zimmerman (L)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 48% in minors so probably about average in majors perhaps (?)
pitches: ?
r/l: better against righties in minors
h/a: ?

BULLPEN

The Nats lack a dominant arm in the bullpen, but their closer is Joel Hanrahan. He is a bit wild, and so the Phillies should be patient if he comes in. The Nats have three lefties in their pen, but none are all that fantastic. Beimel, a sinkerballing lefty, is probably the best of the bunch. The left-handed heart of the Phillies lineup will likely have to face these guys once the starters come out, but these are not the kind of lefties that will dominate them. The Nats bullpen overall is full of guys who induce groundballs, but are prone to wildness. None really has the kind of stuff that blows you away, but scoring off the Nats bullpen will be a matter of putting runners on and hitting line drives, while avoiding the double play ball.

CL Joel Hanrahan (R)

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Joe Beimel (L)

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 85% fb (sinkers coded as fastballs), 7% sl, 5% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 0.9 vs 2.3 k/bb, platoon splits not even as deep as would be give strength of lhb faced vs rhb
h/a: 1.5 k/bb at home 1.1 k/bb on road, but ops split not different

Saul Rivera (R)

proj avg: 3.90 EAR, 3.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 45% fb, 34% sl, 19% ct, 2% ch
r/l: not much of a split
h/a: much better at home (2.1 k/bb vs 1.2)

Michael Hinckley (L)

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 67% fb, 33% cb
r/l: major loogy probably, but tough to tell from limited info
h/a: not enough info

Steven Shell (R)

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 60% fb, 28% cb, 7% sl, 4% ch, 2% sf
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Julian Tavarez (R)

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 53% fb, 25% sl, 15% ch, 8% sf
r/l: 2.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.0 vs lhb; .734/.827 ops
h/a: 1.75 k/bb at home, 1.3 on road

Wil Ledezma (L)

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 37%
pitches: 68% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch
r/l: 1.2 k/bb vs rhb, 1.9 vs lhb; not much of a split on ops, but that's due to higher quality lhb faced
h/a: nothing abnormal

Nationals Drop Opener To Marlins, 12-6 Final. Adam Dunn As Advertised...

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 00:03:40 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

8 months ago: Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn (44) is congratulated by teammates Cristian Guzman (15) and Ryan Zimmerman (11) after hitting a three-run home run against the Florida Marlins' in the sixth inning of a baseball game in Miami, Monday, April 6, 2009. Guzman and Zimmerman scored on the home run. The Marlins won 12-6. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

Browse more photos »

(ed. note - "New post scheduled for 9:30 am EST - 4/7/09...")

Shake 'N Bake...

Adam Dunn did not disappoint in his first regular season appearance with the Washington Nationals. Dunn ended his DC debut 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored and 4 RBI's on a double and a HR the likes of which hasn't been seen by DC baseball fans since...Well...But, Adam Dunn was also as advertised on the defensive end, misjudging a fly ball off of Florida catcher John Baker's bat in the first for what was kindly ruled a double by the Marlins' scorekeeper, but the bad first step Dunn took allowed the Marlins' first run to cross and Baker himself scored two outs later...

The HR by Dunn will overshadow all that, however, and with good reason...well over 400ft, the 3-run blast Dunn hit off Florida starter Ricky Nolasco had fans 20 rows up in right ducking for cover...

Unfortunately, it was a former National who outdid the new one...

The Marlins' Electric Third Baseman Emilio Bonifacio, acquired by the Nationals from Arizona for Jon Rauch last season and then flipped to Florida (with prospects) for Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen this winter, ends the day 4 for 5 against his former team-for-a-minute with 4 runs, 2 RBI's and an inside the park 2-run HR, scoring Cameron Maybin from third when a line drive sails over a pulled-in Lastings Milledge's head in center...Bonifacio was around the bases and sliding into home before the throw in passed the pitcher's mound, and Bonifacio's effort got what's considered a large crowd in Florida off of its feet...

Hanley Ramirez's Grand Slam in the 6th off of Steven Shell put an end to any thoughts of a Nationals' comeback. Ramirez ends the day 2 for 3 with a double, a HR and 5 RBI's. Jorge Cantu puts one into the empty orange seats above the scoreboard in left. The Marlins score 12 runs on 12 hits.

DC lefty John Lannan allows 6 runs on 6 hits, 2 HR's in 3.0 IP...Marlins win, 12-6 final.

John Lannan might want to just pretend his '09 debut never happened. Just pick up where he left off last season as the Nationals' unflappable left hander, because he looked nervous out there for the first time I've seen, and his trademark control was nowhere to be found...58 pitches, 30 for strikes, when he got outs he was getting the groundouts he wanted, with 7 ground balls, 1 fly out and 1 K in 3.0 innings, but he gave up 2 HR's, 2 doubles and 6 runs on 6 hits.

DC reliever Julian Tavarez replaced Lannan in the fourth and gave up 2 runs on 2 hits including a HR though it's hard to blame Tavarez for Bonifacio's inside the park homer...Nationals' lefty Wil Ledezma gave up 2 hits, 3 runs, 2 ER and 2 walks, but an error by Ryan Zimmerman, and a missed attempt at fielding a Bonifacio bunt by the Nationals' third baseman led to a lot of Ledezma's issues...Enter Steven Shell...who serves up a hanging supposed-to-be-a-slider to Hanley Ramirez that clears the scoreboard in left for Ramirez's first Grand Slam...at that point it was over...

Marlins' right-hander Ricky Nolasco throws 6.0 innings, allows 6 hits and K's 6 in the win...Nolasco allows 5 runs, 4 earned, and gives up the HR to Dunn and doubles to Dunn and Kearns. Kiko Calero and Dan Meyer each threw scoreless frames. Florida righty Logan Kensing gives up a run on 2 hits when Nick Johnson singles and scores on a Jesus Flores' hit in the ninth to draw the Nationals within 6...that's as close as they'd get...12-6 Marlins win.

FIRSTS...

First Nationals' Hit of '09: Jesus Flores' line-drive single in the 3rd.

First Nationals' Run Scored of '09: Cristian Guzman on an Adam Dunn RBI double in the 4th.

First Nationals' HR of '09: Adam Dunn - 3-run HR in 6th off Ricky Nolasco.

First Nationals' Error of '09: Ronnie Belliard on grounder from Cameron Maybin in 2nd.

First Nationals' K of '09: Cristian Guzman in 1st.

?'s For The DC Faithful...

Did you still enjoy watching the first game of the season even though the Nationals got hammered?

Was Adam Dunn's HR power all you hoped it would be?

Did anyone else cover their eyes when that Emilio Bonifacio fly ball got over Lastings Milledge's head?

A healthy Jesus Flores...Nice, right?

Are you worried about John Lannan at all? Or was that just Opening Day issues?

Are the Marlins for real?

Will you be back tomorrow?

Nationals now 0-1.

For the Completists, or Anyone Who Missed The Opener...Full Game Report After The Jump...

Opening Day...Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins: Game 1 of 162...

Lastings Milledge grounds the first pitch of the season weakly to Dan Uggla at second. Cristian Guzman swings a foot over a cutter outside and falling fast from Florida righty Ricky Nolasco. Ryan Zimmerman takes a big cut at a fastball outside but comes up empty, swinging strike three to end the first...Emilio Bonifacio reaches out for a fastball and pushes it over second for a leadoff single. Bonifacio is running and safe. Florida catcher John Baker flies out to left, and Adam Dunn completely misjudges it...Bonifacio scores, Baker in at second, 1-0 Fish. Hanley Ramirez bunts Baker over to third. Jorge Cantu drives in a run with a groundout. 2-0 Fish. Cristian Guzman backhands a grounder from Dan Uggla and fires to first, in time.

Adam Dunn takes a low 1-2 bender and get called out on strikes. Nick Johnson takes a 2-2 curve for a full count, but flies out to right on the payoff pitch. Ricky Nolasco dials it up with three straight strikes, the last a 94 mph heater upstairs to get Austin Kearns swinging...John Lannan comes back from 3-0 to a full count, and gets a grounder to first from Jeremy Hermida, Nick Johnson fields and steps on the bag. Guzman fields running toward second, spins and throws to first for out No. 2. Marlins’ CF Cameron Maybin grounds ou...Ronnie Belliard gets shorthopped and drops it, Maybin safe. Lannan wastes a few fastballs on the pitcher and gets a swinging K to end the second.

Ronnie Belliard pushes a liner out to right fielder Cody Ross. Jesus Flores rips a line drive to left for a one-out single and the Nationals’ first hit of the season. Emilio Bonifacio’s charging as John Lannan pops up a bunt and a diving Bonifacio makes the grab. Lastings Milledge flies out to center to end the third...Emilio Bonifacio lines another single out to right. John Baker moves the runner over with a groundout. Bonifacio steals third. Hanley Ramirez slices a line drive right over Nick Johnson’s head at first to score the third run of the game. 3-0 Fish. Jorge Cantu’s swinging 3-0 and he got what he was looking for and put it in the empty orange seats high above left. 5-0 Marlins. 2-1 fastball to Hermida, and it leaves quicker than it came in, first row in right, 6-0 Marlins. Guzman fields and throws out Cody Ross to end a looong third.

Guzman starts the fourth with a single under a diving Dan Uggla at second. Ryan Zimmerman sends a 91mph fastball out to center for Maybin. Adam Dunn goes the other way with a fly ball off the big scoreboard in left for an RBI double and the Nationals first run of ‘09, 6-1 Fish. Nick Johnson slaps a slider to Cantu at first that moves Dunn to third. Austin Kearns lines a full count fastball over third and into the left field corner for an RBI double. 6-2 Marlins. Ronnie Belliard lines out to end the DC fourth...Julian Tavarez takes over on the mound for the Nationals. The first pitch from Tavarez is smoked by Cameron Maybin, who doubles off the wallboard in right. A sac bunt by Nolasco moves Maybin to third. Bonifacio lifts one...over...Lastings...Milledge’s...head in center and it’s to the wall, Bonifacio’s flying...and he beats the throw home...Inside the park, 2-run HR...8-2 Fish. John Baker grounds out to Guzman. Hanley Ramirez pops out to Dunn...8-2 Fish.

Jesus Flores grounds to Bonifacio at third for the first out of the fifth. Josh Bard pinch hits for Tavarez and battles but eventually grounds out. Lastings Milledge goes down swinging. Nolasco’s through five....The first pitch from Wil Ledezma gets hammered to center by Jorge Cantu, who comes in standing up at second. Dan Uggla walks to put two on for Hermida. Hermida swings over a nasty 0-2 bender from Ledezman, strike three swinging. Cody Ross pushes Austin Kearns back to the track in right. Cameron Maybin goes down swining, and the Nationals head in for the sixth.

Leadoff Guzman gets a line drive by Jorge Cantu at first. Ryan ZImmerman bends a liner around Bonifacio at third, who loses it in the shadows, Guzman takes third. Adam Dunn UNLOADS on a fastball down the pipe and puts it 20 rows back in the right field stands, 3-run blast, 8-5 Marlins. Nick Johnson grounds back to the mound for out No. 1. Austin Kearns grounds out to Bonifacio at third. Nolasco gets Belliard swinging at a curve, and gets out of the sixth with the lead....Wil Ledezma’s back on the mound...Ryan Zimmerman eats up a grounder from Brett Carroll and throws it away...Carroll to second. Zimmerman charges on a Bonifacio bunt and comes up empty with the swipe of the glove...first and third for John Baker. Bonifacio steals second...Baker walks, bases loaded, 0 outs. Ledezma’s out in favor of Steven Shell. Hanley Ramirez gets a hanger, and de-stroys it...Grand Slam, 12-5 Marlins. Jorge Cantu lines one right at Adam Dunn in left for the first out. Dan Uggla takes a called strike three at the knees. Jeremy Hermida flies out to Milledge, who shields his eyes from the setting sun and runs in after catching it...

Jesus Flores grounds weakly to short. Willie Harris grounds out to Cantu at first. Lastings Milledge chases a two-strike slider off the plate, strike three, Stand Up and Stretch...Steven Shell’s back for the bottom of the seventh. Cody Ross swings through a high two-strike fastball. Brett Carroll spins one out to second and beats Willie Harris’ throw to first. Emilio Bonifacio grounds out to first to end the seventh....

Cristian Guzman faces Florida lefty Dan Meyer to start the eighth. Guzman skies one to the track in left, where Brett Carroll catches it. Ryan Zimmerman takes a fastball inside that is called strike three, and Zim doesn’t like it. Adam Dunn flies out to Maybin well short of the track...12-5 Marlins, middle of the eighth...Mike Hinckley takes the mound in the Marlins’ eighth. John Baker grounds weakly to Willie Harris at second. Hanley Ramirez accepts a one-out walk. Jorge Cantu walks. Two on for Dan Uggla. Uggla rips into a 3-1 pitch and pops out to center. Wes Helms gets a hold of one, Kearns back to the wall...makes the grab as he hits...

Cameron Maybin dives for a liner off Nick Johnson’s bat, but comes up empty, single to start the ninth. Austin Kearns is up when a wild pitch moves Johnson to second. Kearns chops one to short, Hanley Ramirez guns him. Elijah Dukes gets fooled by a two-strike-Logan-Kensing-curve. Jesus Flores strokes an RBI single to left. Johnson scores. 12-6 Fish, Willie Harris grounds to second, Uggla to Cantu, it’s over. Marlins win. 12-6 final.

Nationals now 0-1.

The 2009 Washington Nationals: What "They're" Saying...plus Sunday Game Thread.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 03:09:04 -0000

As of 11:00 pm EST on Saturday March 28, 2009...

The 2009 Washington Nationals' Lineup Takes Shape...

DC Starting Rotation:

John Lannan - LHP (Opening Day)
Scott Olsen - LHP
Daniel Cabrera - RHP

Shairon Martis - RHP

Jordan Zimmermann - RHP

DC Bullpen:

Jason Bergmann* - RHP

Garrett Mock* - RHP

Steven Shell* - RHP

Saul Rivera* - RHP

Wil Ledezma - LHP

Kip Wells - RHP

Jesus Colome - RHP

Julian Tavarez* - RHP

Ryan Wagner - RHP

Joe Beimel *- LHP

Mike Hinckley - LHP

Joel Hanrahan* - CL

DC IF:

1B - Nick Johnson

2B - Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard

SS - Cristian Guzman

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

Extra IF: Kory Casto, Alex Cintron, Alberto Gonzalez, Willie Harris, Dmitri Young.

DC OF:

LF - Adam Dunn

CF - Lastings Milledge

RF - Elijah Dukes/Austin Kearns

Extra OF: Josh Willingham, Willie Harris.

DC Backstops:

C - Jesus Flores

C - Josh Bard

C - Wil Nieves

The Infield Situation...

We know who's starting in the DC infield, (with Ronnie Belliard in until Anderson Hernandez returns and barring a last minute trade of Nick Johnson, which seems less and less likely each day), but what we don't know is what Washington will do with the rest of the infielders still in camp. Nationals' Manager Manny Acta told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan this afternoon, in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Nats Win, Astronauts Return, Dmitri Speaks", when asked whether Alex Cintron had earned a place on the roster:

"We haven't made a decision yet on Alex. He's a guy who has been up for a while. He's valuable as a utility infielder. We just continue to evaluate him and see where he fits for us...How many extra guys can we have? It's a numbers game. We just have to wait one more week and see. We have Ronnie [Belliard]; we have Willie [Harris]; we have [Alberto] Gonzalez. So, it's going to be a numbers game."

You'll notice there's no mention of Kory Casto there. MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote recently, in an article entitled, "Nats have decision to make on Casto", that without any options left, Casto must either be placed on the 25-Man Roster come Opening Day, or he must clear waivers in order to be sent up to Syracuse.

Manny Acta told Mr. Ladson that the Expos' 3rd Round Pick in '03 might not be a prospect anymore:

"'[Being a utility player] could be his job,' Acta said. 'We have an interesting decision to make. We have seen him in the last two years -- on and off. We have seen him this year in Spring Training. He has played third and first. He is doing well defensively. He still hasn't hit the way we expect him to hit up here.'"

The decision on Casto will come next week.

Further Reading: Washington Times' writer Mark Zuckerman's "Casto still without a role".

The Outfield Situation...

Don't tell Josh Willingham he's ready for a bench role. Washington Post writer Chico Harlan asked the Hammer what he thought about possibly being a bench player, and the quote from Willingham in Mr. Harlan's Nationals Journal post entitled, "The Outfield Squeeze", hints at the 30-year-old outfielders' dissatisfaction with the situation, as he's quoted stating:

"'I'll answer that question if it happens. I won't answer it now. We'll see how I feel. But I know that's definitely not going to be alright with me.'"

And why shouldn't Willingham be mad, he was acquired in a trade by a team that then went out and signed a 40 HR, 100 RBI outfielder who plays the same position he does, and have so far done nothing to remedy the situation by moving one of the players in the overcrowded outfield...

Lastings Milledge is Acta's man in center. Adam Dunn will play almost every day and he's a nightmare at first so they'll play him in left, and it's Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns in right until someone wins the spot or is possibly traded. 9 days and counting...

Is there any chance that the rumors of Washington Nationals' President Stan Kasten and "Acting" GM Mike Rizzo wanting to keep all of the outfielders on the roster are true?...Manny Acta did tell Florida Today.com writer Mark Decotis, as quoted in a 3/11/09 article entitled, "Outfielders work to catch on", that he thought he could get all of the outfielders on the roster enough time, saying, "'We can rotate them and get enough at bats for all of them once we get that number down to whoever's going to come with us to D.C.'"

At the time of Mr. Decotis' article, however, Roger Bernadina and Wily Mo Pena were still in the discussion. Bernadina was optioned on 3/19, and Wily Mo Pena was placed on waivers Saturday morning. Pena can now be had by any team in baseball for $2M...either that or he clears waivers, goes to Syracuse and the entire outfield of Roger Bernadina, Leonard Davis, Justin Maxwell and WMP can tear up Triple-A and give the Chiefs a special inaugural experience...while also challenging the outfielders on the MLB roster for their spots and filling in when necessary, which it certainly was last season...

Rotation and Bullpen ?'s...

In MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Nationals to carry extra position player", Mr. Ladson announced that the Washington Nationals would carry four starters and seven relievers for the first two weeks of the season, when off days would allow for them to properly rest the top four arms, John Lannan, Daniel Cabrera, Scott Olsen and Shairon Martis. The decision was made today, as Washington Times' writer Mark Zuckerman reported, in a Chatter post entitled, "Martis, Zimmermann make rotation, Pena on waivers", to start Martis in DC and, as Mr. Zuckerman writes, have Zimmermann, "...(open) the season in the minors before his spot comes up on April 19."

(ed. note - "I'd just like to point out the wisdom of the Federal Baseball.com readers, who voted 69% to 30% back on January 22, 2009 in favor of 22-year-old right-hander Jordan Zimmermann making the Nationals' '09 rotation.")

(Federal Baseball.com's Predictions: "Collin Balester, who entered Spring Training pencilled into the starting rotation, and was sent to Triple-A Syracuse today, will be back as soon as Daniel Cabrera is moved to the bullpen.")

As for the DC Bullpen...as Mr. Ladson reported, the Nationals will start the season with seven relievers...at the Nationals' official site right now, the team's Depth Chart has seven pitchers listed (from the active roster, no invitees)...Joel Hanrahan (CL), Joe Beimel (who has had the words "primary set-up man to Hanrahan" follow or precede his name in every mention by the Nationals since he was signed), Saul Rivera, Jason Bergmann, Steven Shell, Garrett Mock and Julian Tavarez. As I wrote yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Hinckley or Wil Ledezma stuck on as the go-to-lefty, with Mock dropping off of the list... Does Ryan Wagner stay this time? Kip Wells? He still here? Has Jesus Colome earned a spot?

?'s For The DC Faithful...

1) Who stays in the DC Bullpen? Mock, Hinckley, Ledezma, Wells, Wagner, Colome?

2) Does Anderson Hernandez being out help you decide which backup infielder to keep? Do you prefer one of Willie Harris, Alex Cintron or Alberto Gonzalez over the other as a backup at second if Hernandez can't return?

3) Where will Kory "Limbo" Casto end up? Oakland? (ed. note - "That's just always been my guess...no reason...") Syracuse? DC?

4) Will Collin Balester be back?

5) Please tell me I didn't miss anyone? I stared at rosters for hours trying to find anyone I might be forgetting?

6) Reading Material: Read Dave Nichols At The Nationals News Network's "My Opening Day Roster" post and see what he thinks the recent cuts mean for the '09 Roster...Steven at FJB made bold predictions in, "FJB's Official 2009 Big Prediction Post" last Wednesday...(ed. note - "I think the 'F' stands for 'Forget' now!")...Brian Oliver at the Nationals Farm Authority wrote, "A point by point analysis" of Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell's recently published opinions regarding Stephen Strasburg in a post entitled, "To Draft or Not to Draft"...Mike Henderson at Nationals Pride.com, says goodbye to Wily Mo Pena in a quick post entitled, "Another Jim Bowden Love Affair Down The Tubes", I know this list of articles is not a question...

GAME THREAD...

(ed. note - "I'm not going to be home for today's game...I'll be in brand new Citi Field in Flushing, Queens, NY, watching St. John's baseball...wanted a chance to see the new park when it wasn't full of Mets fans...thankfully I can follow along on the trusty iPhone...")

The Nationals leave Space Coast for Jupiter, where they'll take on the Florida Marlins with Daniel Cabrera on the mound against the Fish's righty Chris Volstad. The game starts at 1:05-ish...

Who's Watching The Nationals? Who Read This Far?...

NEW POLL: WHO STANDS BEHIND JESUS...FLORES?

Poll

'09 Nationals' Backup Catcher? You Decide? Who Backs Up Jesus Flores?

Josh Bard?

62 votes

Wil Nieves?

62 votes

124 votes | Poll has closed

Spring Training: Game 7 Game Thread: The Washington Nationals vs New York's Hated Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 04:30:13 -0000

Who Needs A New GM?

Don't think for a second that Stan Kasten couldn't do this all himself if he wanted to. I doubt he will for much longer, but as an AP story which was printed today in the Newark Star-Ledger's baseball "Notebook" column entitled, "A's set to sign SS Cabrera", reminded everyone, Mr. Kasten, "..at 27 became the youngest GM in NBA history," and, "...in 1999 simultaneously served as president of baseball's Atlanta Braves, the NBA's Atlanta Hawks, and the NHL's Atlanta Thrashers." So it should come as no surprise that Mr. Kasten's taking calls on trades, negotiating with Ryan Zimmerman's agent and simultaneously searching for departed GM Jim Bowden's successor.

Washington Times' writer Ben Goessling reported, in a Chatter post entitled, "Talks resume on ZImmerman contract", on Ryan Zimmerman's agent Brodie Van Wagenen's arrival at the Nationals' Spring home to discuss signing the Face of the Franchise© to a long-term deal with Mr. Kasten, "...with the possibility of getting something done by Opening Day," as a goal, though Mr. Goessling just says, "I'm told," as far as the source of his story...(which must infuriate the Former Nationals' GM.)

The only surprising aspect of this for me, (since I think signing the player who is, (arguably? POLL?), the most popular player in franchise's history might be a good idea to counter all the bad press that's sullied the Nationals' Spring), is that the last I remember reading from Mr. Kasten about Zimmerman's agent was in Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's article entitled, "NatsFest, Over And Out", where Mr. Kasten, then with a single job title, told those in attendance at the NatsFest festivities that he believed Mr. Van Wagenen, "...didn't like to do long-term contracts before free agency."

When the Nationals and Zimmerman agreed on one-year, $3.325 million dollar deal back on February 20th, Mr. Van Wagenen was quoted in MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Nats' Zimmerman avoids arbitration", telling reporters:

"'The Nationals and Ryan have a good relationship,' Van Wagenen said. 'We are working hard to get a deal done. The Nationals made it clear that they want Ryan, and Ryan expressed he wants to be with the Nationals.'"

Before Opening Day would be great...Now about that new GM, Mr. Kasten? "Later this week", I know, I know...

I See A Direct Connection...

So I read MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article about Elijah Dukes offering hitting advice to Roger Bernadina in an article, (which is updated now), entitled, "Bernadina excels after Dukes' tips", and then several hours later I hear the MLB Homeplate Update about Bernadina's three-run walk-off home run to save the Nationals the embarrassment of losing to the lightly-regarded Italian entry in the upcoming WBC, after the Italians were able to take advantage of the struggling relievers Marco Estrada and Wilfredo Ledezma, who combined to allow 5 hits and 5 runs over 1.2 IP. (But seriously, OE Val Pascucci hit a HR? My brother and I talked to him when we went to Montreal and he was deep in left on the turf outfield. He actually responded politely to my Brother Scout's drunken Braves-talk.")

Dukes and Bernadina combined to avoid an international incident, (and if Washington lost, I would've demanded a best of three!), with Dukes 2 for 3 with a triple, a HR and 3 RBI's, and Bernadina, 3 for 5 with the 3-run dinger. (ed. note - "I wonder if Elijah Dukes gave Kory Casto advice too...Sorry, Mr. Ladson, at least it was a rental!") The most important line in today's box score, as I see it:

"2-out RBI: Milledge; Zimmerman, R; Dukes 2; Bernadina 3."

As much because of the names, as it is because of the clutch hitting on display. Now I just want to see the headline, "Zimmermann, Shell, Hinckley and Mock combined on a shutout of the Mets on Wednesday!!!"(ed. note - "That's right, Lou!!!)...

THE HATED METS ARE COMING TO SPACE COAST!!! THE OFFICIAL GAME THREAD!!!!

Bring it Pelfrey!! The Nationals got Jordan Zimmermann!! With 2 N's!!! Maybe I shouldn't taunt Pelfrey, he reportedly threw heat by the Italian team when he pitched against them last week...Tomorrow in Space Coast, the 22-year-old Zimmermann faces the 25-year-old Pelfrey in the first meeting of the year between the NL East rivals (though the Mets' fans laugh thinking that DC fans might see it as a "rivalry").

Pelfrey held the '08 Nationals to a .242 AVG last season, posting a 2.36 ERA in 26.2 IP against DC in which he allowed 7 runs, 7 doubles, a HR and 11 walks, while going (1-2) in 4 starts...

Nationals vs Mike Pelfrey...

Ronnie Belliard - 3 for 15, .200 AVG, 4 K's, 1 2B.

Kory "Shattered Glass" Casto - 1 for 3, .333 AVG, 2 RBI's.

Elijah Dukes - 2 for 3, .667 AVG, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI.

Team USA's Adam Dunn - 2 for 7, .286 AVG, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 RBI's.

Cristian Guzman - 5 for 14, .357 AVG, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 SB.

TAWH - 3 for 7, .429 AVG, 2 RBI's.

Austin "Ringo Starr at the End of 'Helter Skelter" Kearns - 5 for 16, .313 AVG, 1 HR, 4 RBI's.

Lastings Milledge - 3 for 10, .300 AVG, 1 2B.

Josh Willingham - 3 for 10, .300 AVG, 1 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI's.

Ryan Zimmerman - 5 for 24, .208 AVG, 1 2B, 2 RBI's.

Game time 1:05 pm EST from Space Coast. I'll be listening in if anyone's following the action...(Note: I actually don't see it listed on the radio or XM...so???)

?'s For The DC Faithful?

• Are you hearing any new names in the Nationals' GM Search? Are the Nationals in a media lockdown?

• Will Triple-A Syracuse with Leonard Davis, Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell in the outfield (presumably) be just as fun to watch as the Nationals? You Chiefs' fans are lucky!

• Do you consider the Hated Mets the Nationals' biggest rivals? The Orioles? The Phillies?

• Should Kory Casto pay for Bill Ladson's rental's window? (ed. note - "I still think Gary Majewski owes me $300 for giving up a HR to Ryan Howard in Philly that set me on the way home late and into an accident that never would've happened if Majewski didn't hang that slider!")

• Is there anyone else out there who's become as big a Dukes' fan as me? If he takes over right field in '09, I'm getting a #34 name and # t-shirt! (Especially since Milledge had to go change his # to #85...now I have no accurate shirts...)

Who's Following Spring Training baseball between DC and NY???

(ed. note - "Phew, I made it through a post that discussed the Italian team without an Italian cooking joke!)

Poll

Who Is The Most Popular Player In Nationals' History?

"Mr. National Himself" Livan Hernandez?

4 votes

Vinny "The Vacuum" Castilla?

0 votes

Alfonso soriANO!!!

15 votes

Ryan Zimmer- THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!!

89 votes

The Flat-Brimmed Closer Chad Cordero?

12 votes

Chris Snelling?

2 votes

Nick Johnson?

5 votes

Brad "Wilkie" Wilkerson?

1 votes

Other? Write-In Votes In the Comments!!!

6 votes

134 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 15:26:50 -0000

Some things to read while I try to get Psycho Killer out of my head.

As noted in this Rumorville post, the Brewers now seem less likely to sign Braden Looper. Yahoo's Tim Brown (via MLB Trade Rumors) says Looper might be on the Dodgers' radar. I've been holding back on saying this for a while, but it seems like the time has come to make my final offer: If the Brewers sign Braden Looper, I will buy a Looper jersey.

Elsewhere on MLBTR is the news that the Brewers and A's "are big on" Mark Mulder. I'm all for buying low and taking a chance on a guy with a high upside, as long as we're not depending on 200 innings from a guy who's thrown 106 over the last three seasons. (Also noted in Rumorville)

Yesterday was the first day for players to file for arbitration. Tom H. thinks Prince Fielder will get at least $6.7 million, which seems about right. It also seems unlikely that the two sides will agree to a deal before arbitration.

Baseball by Paul has finished his ranking of the top 100 outfielders, with Ryan Braun checking in at #2, behind only Grady Sizemore.

I seem to recall hearing this weeks ago, but the news has gained steam again this week: Jim Powell is under consideration to be the new radio voice of the Braves. Powell can be a little preachy at times, but there are definitely worse guys out there and I'll miss him if he's gone.

Among former Brewers on the hot stove:

The Twins appear interested in Guillermo Mota.
We all know the Rangers are interested in Ben Sheets, but they may also be interested in bringing Eric Gagne back.

Elsewhere on the hot stove:

Braves: Despite reports to the contrary, they are still in the race for Kenshin Kawakami.
Cardinals: Signed lefty reliever Royce Ring.
Cubs: Their rumored deal with Milton Bradley is for three years, $30 million.
Dodgers: The downward spiral continues for Andruw Jones, who was hitting just .148 and has left his winter ball team.
Mets: Are reportedly not interested in increasing their 3-year, $36 million offer to Derek Lowe.
Nationals: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma.
Rays: Signed Pat Burrell to a two year deal. Jeff Suppan is excited to have him out of the NL.
Reds: May be interested in Oliver Perez.

There's some interesting rumblings going on in regards to recent PED suspensions. Yesterday J.C. Romero and new Yankee Sergio Mitre were both suspended for 50 games for using a banned supplement, but in this case it's possible they took precautions to make sure it wasn't banned, and were failed by the system. Mitre likely won't pitch in 2009 anyway as he recovers from surgery, but Romero might miss a third of the season due to someone else's failures.

If you've got half an hour to kill this morning and you've already watched the Nieves no-hitter, Jayson Stark has his annual Strange but True column up. There's only one Brewer note in there, but it's still good stuff.

Couldn't baseball pick a better ambassador? The first foreigner ever to manage in South Korea is former Brewer manager Jerry Royster, and somehow that feat earned him an invitation to Barack Obama's inaugration.

Carl Pohlad, the owner of the Minnesota Twins perhaps best known for offering the team up for contraction in 2001, died yesterday at the age of 93.

Oh, and here are some odd choices for entrance music for closers. (h/t BBTF)

Drink up.

Two Cents on Wil Ledezma

Tommy Rancel — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 17:23:23 -0000

Much like John Rheinecker, it seems Wilfredo Ledezma has been a victim of circumstance. When put into the right situations he can be a very productive pitcher, but he has not always been put in those situations. Ledezma is a 27 year old left hander with pretty good stuff. He's bounced around the league from Detroit to Atlanta to San Diego and finally to the Diamondbacks, who non-tendered him last week. His fastball lives around 93 mph and he uses a slider and a changeup as his secondary pitches. Both sit in the low 80's giving him more than enough of a velocity change to be effective. His career numbers aren't pretty (15-22, 5.10 ERA), but looking at his 2008 numbers, when used in the right situations he can be effective.

Ledezma made six starts for the San Diego Padres going 0-2 with a 6.57 ERA. He allowed 18 earned runs in 24.2 innings and K'd 19 while walking 19. As a reliever for the Padres & Diamondbacks, he went 0-0 with a 2.43 ERA and allowed nine runs in 29.2 innings. His K's jumped to 30, but his walks remained the same at 19. Digging a little deeper in to his LOOGY numbers, he made 20 relief appearances against left handers and did not allow an earned run. He allowed six earned runs as a starter against them.

Overall, his numbers across the board were pretty good. His combined FIP for the season was 4.47 and Marcels projects him as a 4.36 FIP in 2009. His tRA* of 4.78 would've been an improvement over the 4.96 Trever Miller put up in the LOOGY role in '08. He isn't perfect and has a tendency to lean toward the fly-ball(41% career) rather than the ground-ball(36%). He also doesn't have a pretty K/BB ratio as seen in his career numbers of K/9 6.09 and BB/9 4.41. But his SwStr% of 10.8 last season was pretty good for a reliever.

Again, a lot of his career numbers aren't pretty, but how much of that can be attributed to the way he was used? Last season, even though it's a small sample size compared to his career, he seemed to fit the loogy role well. And like Rheinecker, he won't cost much more than a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. This could be another low-risk, high-reward signing that we have become accustomed to seeing from Andrew Friedman.