SB Nation - Joey Devine

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Browse more photos »

We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:22:13 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Gregg "Triple G" Zaun: 2010 Brewer?

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while running to the store for orange soda.

Tourist season continues in Rumorville, with Gregg Zaun (aka "Triple G") passing through yesterday. Apparently the Brewers are one of several teams that have expressed interest in the former Rays catcher, who previously said he expects to sign by the end of the week. A few quick thoughts on Zaun:

He hit .260/.345/.416 last season between the Orioles and Rays, well above average for a catcher.
He'll also turn 39 in April.
2010 will be his 16th major league season, and he's spent at least part of one of those seasons with the Orioles (two tours), Marlins, Rangers, Royals, Astros, Rockies, Blue Jays and Rays. He needs to sign with the D-Backs to complete the Expansion Cycle.

I can't decide how I feel about the possibility, but I hope the Brewers don't overinvest in it: He could be an interesting piece, but the fact that there's competition for his services would imply the price could be pretty high for a catcher with a lot of miles on his tires.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin flew out to LA this week to meet with Mark Attanasio to discuss the club's financial situation and develop a plan for free agency. Fire Doug Melvin has a list of the tough questions that should be asked, and actually probably should have been asked a while ago. Comments continue to drift in on Melvin's decision not to offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez and Mike Cameron:

Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks was woken up by a ticket sales rep and proceeded to pen some half-awake thoughts on the situation.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet reacted to the decision and thought out loud on projections for the winter meetings.
Keep Turning Up The Heat! echoed some of the same conversations we've had around here about Lopez's value and tradeability.

All of this mess is only making the job harder for the folks the Brewers have hired to sell tickets for next season. Caitlin Moyer has a profile and offseason work plan for Director of Season Ticket Sales Billy Friess.

If you drove by Miller Park yesterday (or stopped in the Fan Shop, as I did), you might have noticed that the lights were on. Apparently a camera crew was working in the park, shooting a three second clip that will eventually be part of a Coors Light commercial.

In the minors:

Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew recently conducted an interview with Jonathan Lucroy, discussing the recent attention he's received, and current/former teammates Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers and Chris Cody. It's worth a read.
Lisa Winston of MiLB.com also has a great read on the early results the Brewers are seeing from 2009 draft picks.
And, if you're doing some holiday shopping for the minor league addict in your life, you may be interested in some deals from the Nashville Sounds.

Around baseball:

A's: Avoided arbitration with reliever Joey Devine, agreeing to a one-year deal worth roughly $550k.
Indians: Signed reliever Jason Grilli to a minor league deal.

The Brewers may or may not be preparing to make an offer to Randy Wolf. While the Brewers may be in, the Astros are the first team I've seen to publicly acknowledge they're out.

Another day, another list of Rule 5 Draft prospects. Today's comes from DRaysBay, and includes Royals reliever Chris "Disco" Hayes.

If you're looking to learn something about sabermetrics today, here's an opportunity: Big League Stew has everything you ever wanted to know about FIP, it's uses and misuses.

Here's a problem I wish I could complain about: Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner is having a hard time finding topics to write about now that times have changed in the Mariners' front office and the organization is actually making logical moves. I'd much rather complain about that than the dent my forehead is starting to make in my desk.

Oh, but there is a former Brewer note today: The Midwest League's Fort Wayne Tin Caps have announced their coaching staff for 2010, and Bronswell Patrick is their pitching coach. He appeared in 32 games for the 1998 team.

On this day in 1901, the American League officially dropped the Milwaukee Brewers and replaced them with the St. Louis Browns, ending the city's first run in the AL after just one season.

On this day in 1971, the Brewers acquired Jim Colborn, Brock Davis and Earl Stephenson from the Cubs for Jose Cardenal. Colborn won 20 games for the Brewers in 1973, pitching 22 complete games and logging 314.1 innings. He's the only Brewer ever to pass 300 IP.

On this day in 1989, the Brewers signed Dave Parker as a free agent. Parker would spend one season in Milwaukee, hitting .289/.330/.451 with 21 home runs. He was traded during to the Angels during spring training in 1991 for Dante Bichette.

Happy birthdays today to:

Matt Childers, who made eight appearances for the 2002 Brewers and turns 31.
Gary Glover, who made 19 appearances for the 2004-2005 Brewers and turns 33.
Darryl Hamilton, who played center field for most of the 1988-1995 seasons, and turns 45.

Oh, and if you'd like to be paid to watch and score baseball games, polish up your resume because your dream job just opened up.

Drink up.

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part II

Tyler Bleszinski — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:00:22 -0000

Yesterday was part one of the Beane season ending Athletics Nation interview. Today is part two. I won't set this one up, I'll just let the interview speak for itself.

Hope you enjoy and can start looking forward to 2010. I know I am.

Blez: The starting pitching has really matured nicely with quite a few early ups and downs which you said you expected. The overall team ERA is fourth best in the AL.

Beane: Is it really? I didn't know it was that high. We fluctuated back and forth.

Blez: Not the starting pitching on its own, the whole staff together. It includes the bullpen.

Beane: And the bullpen has been spectacular. Numbers-wise, we'll have somewhere around 113-114 games started by rookies, which is an incredible number. I'm guessing that's the highest in the major leagues.

Blez: I'm guessing no one else is close.

Beane: It has been as we expected and we've had some good days and had some bad days. If you look at the guys who've been in there regularly, certainly Brett, who has gotten progressively better there from the start of the season and certainly Trevor Cahill has as well. Particularly look at his last six or seven starts. You remember the kid is 21 years old. He would've been a junior in college this year and eligible for the draft and here he is in the majors with double digit wins in our league too. The American League is not a forgiving place for a rookie pitcher, so I think he's shown himself nicely. Gio (Gonzalez) who came up and had some really tough starts, but he's definitely shown flashes of what he can be. I think overall we have to be pleased with some of these guys. The thing that was tough was losing (Josh) Outman who was pitching very well and you saw what this kid could become.

Blez: I was just going to ask about some of the progress of the injured pitchers like Dallas Braden, Vin Mazzaro, Joey Devine and Michael Ynoa?

Beane: Yeah but finishing up on the starting pitching, we certainly expected some ups and downs with the young starting pitching, there have certainly been more ups than downs. All the guys have justified our faith in them from their time in the minor leagues. I think they have a chance to be even better this year. We've stretched them out a bit in September here. Some of the guys we lost, we had to patch a starting rotation together in an effort to reduce some of the innings of some of these guys and in Vinny Mazzaro's case we were just very conservative in shutting him down. In another situation if we were fighting for a division, Vinny would probably still be out there but we want to be very, very conservative in how we treat these young guys. Some of the success, and the fact that we're fourth in the league, the credit goes to the bullpen which as I said has been absolutely phenomenal. After taking arguably our best reliever out of the equation in spring training in Joey Devine, it gets us very excited with what that bullpen will be like next year to think we'll be adding Devine to it.

To address the injury situation, Joey is doing great. He's right on schedule to be on a normal routine from the first day of spring training on. So we have complete faith that he's going to be back and at 100 percent next year. In Josh's case, he had the surgery a little later but he's doing great. If anyone knows Josh, he's a real hard worker. As far as his timetable, it's a little early now, but it's almost a full calendar year. There are cases where some guys come back a little earlier, some a little later, but you have to assume it's going to be a full calendar year. All indications are Josh is on that timeline.

Blez: It seems like it might be a little difficult to put a rotation together next year given all the candidates you have. Pleasurably difficult, if that makes sense.

Beane: Yeah definitely, it will be a good problem to have. I don't think you can have enough good starters with the injury factor and how difficult it is to go out and find them when you lose one. If it's a problem, it's one I welcome. In Dallas' (Braden) case it was just unfortunate with that infection in his foot, but when a starting pitcher has missed as much time as he has, there becomes a cutoff point where it becomes unrealistic that he can come back at any point during the remainder of the season. Dallas, in a very short time, established himself as a very good major league starting pitcher and one of the best ones we had on our staff so it's disappointing to lose him as he would've had a major impact on how we're finishing up now.

Blez: I was going to get into the bullpen, but it must be nice to feel like you already have one aspect of the team covered going into this offseason. You've got Ziegler, Bailey and Wuertz still around and if you throw in Joey Devine. That's four solid rocks of your bullpen already set for next year.

Beane: Breslow has also pitched very well for us and Blevins and Kilby have done very, very well in coming up. We've got a very good bullpen right now and looking ahead to 2010 it's one that could conceivably be better. We feel very good about that position.

Blez: You also add to that mix one of the starting pitchers that might not make the rotation because of all the starting pitching candidates you have.

Beane: These are all good problems to have and it isn't something we've had lately. Still you have keep injuries in mind and be careful. We do have high hopes that Joey will be 100 percent ready to go come the spring. The past few years have proven that you have to have depth if you're going to be successful for 162 games.

Blez: The situation with Justin Duchscherer is obviously very sad and it almost seems callous to talk about baseball in terms of him, but do you anticipate him being a part of the team in 2010 or is the situation too tenuous right now?

Beane: First and foremost, contractually, he's a free agent. It's not a unilateral decision we can make. In short, we hope he is doing well. We need to respect what he's going through right now and from a professional standpoint, also monitor it and deal with it when the time comes. But anyone who has seen Justin pitch for the five years he's pitched for us, it's pretty easy to recognize he's a really good pitcher and will be valuable to anybody. As to how we go forward, we'll know once we get into winter, but not one we can answer right now. I don't think there's any shortage of people around here who aren't fans of the person and also fans of the talent.

Blez: How do you feel about your draft this year? You drafted Grant Green and addressed the need for a shortstop. But when you're looking at Max Stassi, he slipped to later in the draft because of concerns over signability. Is that something that you're looking at to spend a little more of the organizations' dollars in terms of going after someone who other teams might have passed on because of the concerns of signability?

Beane: Yeah, that's why we were able to get him where we did. If you look at an organization that's trying to rebuild from within, it's one area you can improve yourself, it was a conscious decision this year to take some chances on guys who might be difficult signs but we thought were very talented players. We had not done that in previous years and we're a little bit behind the curve because of it. If you look at the lifeblood of an organization like ours, it's going to come from within. If we're going to compete, we're going to try and bring in as many good young players as we can because that's really where the bulk of our future lies. In Max's case, this is a really impressive 18-year-old kid. We thought that and a lot of teams did as well. We weren't unique there. But based on what I've seen so far, we couldn't be happier that not only did we draft him, but we signed him. We think he could be a really good major league player and that it could happen quicker than most people think for a high school kid. He's really impressive and has been since the first day he put on our uniform.

Blez: Do you think he was ultimately first round talent?

Beane: That's what we saw him as is a first round talent. We did and hence why we had to compensate him as he had a full ride to UCLA. I just feel fortunate we were able to get him and able to sign him.

Blez: You said the lifeblood of a small market organization comes from building from within, but the 2009-2010 free agent season is right around the corner. I know you can't really talk about any upcoming free agents or anything, but if you had to look at your shopping list for next season what are areas you'd like to improve for your team?

Beane: Free agency usually starts five days after the World Series and it isn't really an area historically we've been involved in. In understanding what we're trying to do here especially long term, when you sign free agents, you're giving up draft picks. We have to be cognizant of that in that whenever you're bringing players in it isn't just cost, but what you're giving up in terms of standing in the way of long-term development of a younger player who might be there for a long time. Historically, we haven't been in the free agent market early. It doesn't mean that we don't go through the exercise of looking at the club needs and how they will addressed either short term or long term. We usually start a little earlier than people think, at least internally, but we will be looking at it over the next month or month and a half. I would expect us to try to continue what we've been doing here, particularly in the second half, which is creating a young team that has a chance to get better and better each year and one that can stay around for a while.

Blez: Speaking of free agents, Adam Kennedy is going to be a free agent at the end of the year. He obviously came in and did some amazing things for the team. Is he someone you're interested in bringing back, especially as he has already expressed interest in coming back? He seems like he'd be a good stop gap solution at third base until Brett Wallace is capable of taking over that position.

Beane: There are some things that you have to address pretty quickly. I agree with you in that Adam Kennedy has just been outstanding for us this year. If you consider the fact that he'd never played third base as we put him over there when Ellie (Mark Ellis) came back and he was learning the position at the major league level, we're very happy with not only what he's provided on the field but in the clubhouse too. He's a grinder and he brings a certain mentality to the game that I think is very positive. That's going to be one of the things I'm going to have to deal with pretty quickly after the season. The best thing I can say is that we've been very pleased with Adam and he's been great to have around. As far as him coming back next year, it will definitely be a topic of conversation. But from Adam's end, Adam is a free agent and he has the ability to choose where he wants to go. Rest assured we'll be having conversations internally and we'll be having a conversation with his representative as well as Adam himself.

Blez: What about Jack Cust? The team is seemingly pretty desperate for power and that's one thing that Cust does well.

Beane: You have to respect what Jack has done and the fact that he does have power on a team that doesn't have significant power. Once again, I'm not sure we could answer that question now. But he's arbitration-eligible so it isn't like he's a free agent. You have to respect Jack has hit 30 plus homers for us in a year and he probably isn't going to reach that this year but he's still our leading home run hitter. He and every other player on the team will be subject to evaluation going forward, not just for next year but for many years ahead. These are the things we get to do in October and November.

Blez: There was a lot of discussion heading into the season that Jack was going to try and cut down on the strikeouts so he could hopefully bring up the batting average. It didn't seem to work out. Do you think the focus on cutting down on those strikeouts wound up hurting his performance?

Beane: It would be better for Jack to answer that one. Jack is going to hit home runs. He's going to strike out. He's going to take his walks. The other thing about Jack is that 99 percent of the season, on a team that has more than its share of injuries over the past few years, Jack is ready to go out there every day. He keeps himself in good shape. There has rarely been a day that Jack has been here when Bob can't put him in the lineup. With the situation we've had the last three years, it's been nice that he's been healthy and available.

Blez: This is year three of the five-year rebuilding plan if you count the rebuilding starting after the 2006 season, but this would be the third year of the remaking of the team (Beane corrected me stating that the rebuilding actually started with the trading of Haren in late 2007). I know it's really early because we haven't even finished 2009 yet, but how do you feel about the team, especially because teams like Texas are on the rise and Anaheim remains a good team? Do you think the team will take that giant leap forward in year four of this rebuilding process?

Beane: I don't think you can really say until you start to go into the offseason and formulate next year's team. I think in the last couple of months, I've seen us put in some building blocks for a team that's going to be good. There's still a lot of areas that we need to improve on and some of that improvement will come by adding players from the minor league system but also just through these players getting better over time. I think it's hard to put a timetable on it, but anyone who follows this team on a regular basis can look at some positions, whether it be the pitching staff or in the field and say, this guy is a good young player and he has a chance to get better. As far as the timetable, it's tough to do. We're putting together a team that has a chance over the next few years to continue getting better and better. At what rate is hard to predict because sometimes young players will surprise you and develop quicker than you think, particularly when there is a lot of them that have a lot of confidence, but in some cases they can disappoint. When you take a guy like Brett Anderson over the course of a full season and chart his improvement, I think everyone is excited to see how good he can actually be next year after having a full year under his belt. And if you multiply that by say 25 guys, sometimes they can surprise you. The building blocks are in place and when that happens I certainly couldn't predict. I'm definitely very excited about what they could become.

Blez: Do you think Bob Geren is an ideal manager for this team simply because one of his strengths appears to be working with younger talent?

Beane: Absolutely. If you look at going into August in last place and you've traded away some of the most experienced and in some cases the best players, it's impressive to do what this team has done over the last couple of months. Case in point is this past weekend in Anaheim. The Angels had a chance to clinch the division and these guys never let up. I think that's the best indication in getting these guys to play the way they're playing in the month of September when other teams have more to play for than you do. He's been a young player himself at the major league level. He's managed at every single level. He's coached at every level. So he brings a lot of experience and a lot of it comes from dealing with younger players. It's been very much a positive that's revealed itself over this transition for us.

Blez: Is it the type of situation where maybe he grows up as a manager as the team grows up? Meaning that he becomes more comfortable in being a manager and dealing with veterans and veteran personalities as the team heads towards being more competitive.

Beane: Everybody in any position usually grows a lot the more you deal with those different circumstances. I'm sure there are some things Bob might do different today that he might not have done his first year. I think that comes with experience. Bob is gaining that and gaining it on the job. He's organized and guys are playing hard for him. He's prepared and Bob has all those things.

Blez: As usual, thanks so much for all your time.

Also, in case you're interested in a little more Beane, I did a more general interview for SBNation.com that ran yesterday. And please remember to participate in giving on behalf of AN to the Donor's Choose Social Media Challenge. It's for a great cause. Thank you.

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part I

Tyler Bleszinski — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:00:46 -0000

The A's did make some strides forward in 2009 despite finishing with nearly an identical record the past three seasons. They have a good core of young players who appear primed to only get better, and despite the last week of stumbling baseball, the team was one of baseball's surprises in the second half.

With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Wallace, Daric Barton, Rajai Davis and the rest of the team coming back with more experience, 2010 is looking up for us green and gold faithful. Billy Beane is exceptionally busy wrapping up the season and already starting to look ahead, so I appreciate him taking the time out to chat with me this past week. This is the first part of the interview. I will be running the second part first thing Tuesday morning. Enjoy.

Blez: When I talked to you in spring training it looked like you felt like this team could've gone either way. You were hesitant to say it was going to excel. You didn't seem to know what you were going to have.

Billy Beane: If you point to something right away, we had so many young and unproven starting pitchers in the rotation. You just didn't really know how they were going to react and it's hard to predict where you're going to go if you don't know where your pitching is. I think when we spoke it was right around the time when we were just becoming aware of some of the injury possibilities that ended up happening. The two most obvious were Duchscherer and Joey Devine. When you have so many rookie pitchers getting their first taste of the major leagues, it's very difficult to predict where you're going to go.

Blez: What would your assessment on 2009 be then? We're closing in on the final week of the season here.

Beane: It almost feels like two different seasons. I'm very pleased with the second half. I think we've played pretty well and we've surprised some people because we've played so well in particular after some of the bigger name players weren't here anymore. In particular the Holliday trade, and we've made other changes. But I think the most encouraging thing has been the way we've performed in the second half as well as the development of some of these players who I think are going to be here for a long time, which was first and foremost our goal this year. It's been the last couple of years that we've been trying to build that foundation of young talent that people can look forward to seeing for the next few years and creating a winning core for the foreseeable future. For the first time you really started to see that. You can look at some of the young players like Andrew Bailey who made the All Star team as a closer. Certainly Brett Anderson's performance and Trevor Cahill's improvement. Gio (Gonzalez) has made progress this year. Raj Davis, on the offensive side, has come on and shown himself to be a really good major league centerfielder. Ryan Sweeney as well as Kurt Suzuki's continued development and I know I'm going to leave people out. Cliff Pennington has performed very well in the second half. I think if you look around the diamond you'll see that these guys are going to be here for a while and they've proven over the second half that they can perform at the major league level. And as we continue to add guys from our minor league system, guys who are highly thought of, you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Blez: You mentioned people being surprised that the team picked up and became a better team when you ultimately traded away or got rid of some of the "name" guys like Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera. Some of those guys we all expected more from at the beginning of the year. Is there a point where you might've said, "Maybe instead of bringing in some of those guys, maybe I should've just started with the youth at the beginning of the year and perhaps they would've matured and gotten to that point?"

Beane: That's a good question. Personally I always like the idea of if you're trying to rebuild to just got full bore and do it. But there's also a balance as well. In fairness you have to understand a guy like Cliff Pennington probably benefitted from going back and starting the year in Triple-A. What we've seen this year even relative to last year is that he was much more ready to come up this year and contribute than last year. I don't think you could say that that would've been the case in April. But it's a fair question and certainly one that you think about. I do think there is something to be said about having some of those older guys in here so as not to put the pressure on those younger guys to perform. When we made some of these trades to make the commitment to the younger guys it was a different point in the season and I think it allowed them to relax and realize they were going to be able to play every day. They would realize they could make a mistake and still be in there. I'm not sure that that would've been the case had you started that way from the outset. You might've had a different mindset from the younger players. Keep in mind that some of the holdover guys are young too. Those players are different ones than they were in April. Even though we see Kurt Suzuki as the established guy, he's a guy that continues to improve as is Ryan Sweeney. I think having some of those veteran guys gave them the opportunity to continue some of that development. When the baton was handed off to them, they were more prepared then they were in April.

Blez: You were talking about some of those veteran guys you traded away. And obviously it hurt the team quite a bit that Matt Holliday didn't come close to his career numbers with the A's. There was speculation on AN, everything from he knew he was a short timer here in Oakland so he didn't care, to league adjustment, to the adjustment to not being at Coors Field. Why do you think he didn't come close to what he's doing now in St. Louis?

Beane: The first thing I can put to rest is that he didn't care because that was absolutely not the case. Matt was an absolute professional here. If anything he was probably guilty of putting too much pressure on himself than people know publicly. Matt had impeccable work habits and was a pro. There was probably a bit of an adjustment period. But keep in mind even right before he went to St. Louis, he was really starting to get going here.

Blez: His numbers definitely were going up before he was dealt.

Beane: Yeah you could see he was starting to feel more like himself and get it going. The fact that he took off when he went there was not a surprise. Certainly the lineup to hit in around Pujols, I think it became a perfect environment for him. I think had Matt stayed here he would've returned to his career numbers and I think he was headed that way before he left. I can tell you this. He was an absolute professional when he was here and any assertion that he didn't care is not true.

Blez: How do you find enough at bats for someone like Landon Powell who seems like he should get more regular playing time? Do you go into the offseason thinking about how you get more time for him despite the fact that Kurt Suzuki is a fantastic catcher, does a great job with the pitchers and is great offensively? Do you start to look at DH or a different position?

Beane: There's been times where Bob (Geren) has tried to do that. Early in the year he played a few games at first base and it's not something everyone can do immediately on an everyday basis. The other thing too is there were times that Landon was slowed down because he had nagging hamstring issues at different points during the season. Even though there are times when Bob wanted to get his bat in the lineup, Landon's body wouldn't allow him to. One of the things we're going to focus on with Landon is making sure he's as physically prepared as possibly to handle even more than he has. But we see it as a good problem to have. To be able to put in a catcher behind Kurt who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark but is also a good defensive catcher is a great luxury to have. But the fact is, and you alluded to this, Kurt Suzuki is one of the top catchers in the game. Not only that but he's very much become a leader on the team so he's going to get the bulk of time, yet we are aware of the amount of production Landon has given us in his brief amount of time. I think the goal is ultimately to get him more at bats, but for the time being, Kurt is going to get the bulk of them. Part of Landon's responsibility is to make sure he can handle more playing time than he has because that hasn't always been the case this year.

Blez: When someone like Rajai Davis has what looks like a "career year," how do you assess whether a reasonable projection for next year is more like what he's doing, or more like what he's done before? How does the team go about trying to figure this out?

Beane: In some sense you have to take it at face value. He was with Pittsburgh and then San Francisco and now us. He's never really been given a full blown opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player and now that he is putting up the numbers he is, the first question is, can he keep this up? But if you go back and look at what Raj did in the minor leagues, he was a good minor league hitter so it shouldn't come as a total shock. You're not talking about a guy who was a .220 hitter in the minor leagues. He was a good player when he played. Right now we just see it as a guy who has hit well in the minors who has finally been given the opportunity and is carrying it forward. We're going to enjoy it and go with it and try not to overthink. Anyone who has seen Raj with us over the last year and three quarters, when he's played, he's played well. He's one of the unique major league players who continues to just get better. We're going to take it at face value and he's done enough to show that he's a good enough player to play every day at center field. He's such a weapon on the base paths and he gives you such a unique dynamic. If you look at the stolen bases he's had without even having a full season, it isn't out of the question that next year you could see stealing 65-70 bases.

Blez: You reference stolen bases and obviously it's something that has changed quite a bit about the A's. I think you're in the top three in stolen bases and Raj is one of the league leaders in that number and he really makes the overall team number larger. Did you make a decision to be more aggressive on the base paths because of the lack of power? Did you think, we've got to get some offense some way?

Beane: I really think it's Bob (Geren) trying to take the personnel he has and trying to do the best he can with it. He's playing to the strengths. We don't have a lot of power and it's certainly something in order to be a more complete offensive team it's something we need to get. In a perfect world you have both guys who can steal bases and guys who can hit it out of the ballpark. As much as anything, it's Bob really trying to take advantage of what he has. Early in the year we were having trouble scoring runs and he wanted to create a mindset of being aggressive and when you have a guy like Raj doing it the way he's doing it, it has a tendency of rubbing off on everybody. There's a sense of confidence guys have when they get on the bases and they look to steal bases. They're looking for that steal sign. It also has a carryover effect with the rest of the base running. We've been by and large a very good baserunning team and it was just a matter of Bob looking at his personnel and he thought that this is what we're going to have to do to scrape some runs out. The second half we've actually swung the bats really well also and if you combine that with the aggressive baserunning, that's why you're seeing a lot higher run totals. The one thing it really has done is just given the guys a more aggressive mindset. They realize they're not going to win a whole lot of ballgames by getting into home run hitting contests. I give a lot of credit to Bob and his staff as they've really scratched and clawed their way through nine innings of these games.

Blez: Two questions. Do you believe in that the stolen bases must be a 75 percent success rate or higher or it's counterproductive and second of all, do you believe that someone like Rajai Davis actually puts additional pressure on the pitcher? The assumption is that the opposition pitcher somehow loses that concentration because they're so worried about the baserunner stealing.

Beane: There is no question that if a guy like Raj gets on base, everyone is aware that he is on base and there is going to be some adjustments to how quickly the pitcher might deliver the pitch and the catcher might call for a different pitch than he otherwise would. So the game calling might change as well. I'm sure you could quantify it. I'm not aware of exactly how to, but you can certainly tell from a game situation how teams react differently if you're willing to steal a base so I do think it does have an impact. The Angels have certainly done that for years and I think it's had an impact on how teams play them. It creates a tense situation for not just pitchers and catchers but defenders because they have to come up with a perfect play. As far as the rate, there is certainly a point where if you're constantly running and constantly getting thrown out it's definitely having an adverse impact and the demarcation line certainly seems to be around that 70 percent area. You also have to keep in mind that it doesn't take into account some of the things teams are doing to adjust to a team that runs a lot.

Blez: Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane: What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often. The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez: The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane: The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup. Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too. I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well. That's why the success rate seems higher. It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Blez: We talked about Raj and his career year. This is similar to that. Does Daric Barton seem like he's finally arrived or do you need to see more than a month of red-hot hitting, especially given that he's done that before?

Beane: I knew I'd forget somebody earlier and Daric has, certainly this last month, been swinging the bat the way we knew he could and very similarly to the first month he came to the big leagues a couple of years ago. One thing to keep in mind with Daric is that he's still extremely young. He came up at an age when many kids are still in college. He needs to be given the benefit of time and we need to do that. Through no fault of his own, he's had a few nicks here and there that have kind of interrupted his development. The biggest thing is this guy has been a very, very good minor league hitter and at times has shown that he can be a very good major league hitter. With young players, you just can't expect they're always going to be Andrew Bailey where they step on a mound and they never look back. Daric's development path is not unlike a lot of successful major leaguers where he shows you something and maybe he goes through some difficult times. That just means we have to be patient and hope that the guy that you saw in the minor leagues ultimately becomes that guy at the major leagues. This last month Daric has made some huge strides and we're not just excited about next year, but the next five or six years. The other thing you can't forget about Daric is how good a defender he has become. This is a converted catcher in the minor leagues. He's become a very good defensive first baseman, not just with the glove, but when needed, he throws very well from that position too. We're excited and it's great to see. We've always had high hopes for Daric particularly after that first month at the big leagues. He's one of the reasons we've played so well.

Blez: Staying with the first baseman theme, you have Barton, Doolittle and Carter as potential first basemen, but Doolittle and Carter also have some OF experience. What does the first base depth chart look like right now, and which of the players might be more likely to end up elsewhere on the field?

Beane: It's a question we may face and face very soon. We played Chris Carter a little in the outfield in Double-A. He's a good athlete. In a perfect world, all those guys become very good major league hitters and you have to find a spot for them. It potentially is something we're going to face. We're going to have to make a decision and it will be made on production first and foremost. Secondly, as you mentioned, it might be based on somebody's ability to play another position. In Chris' case we started to play him some in the outfield and I've even talked to his agent as he's going to play winter ball in Mexico and we've talked about getting him out there as much as possible because we think he's a good enough athlete to do it. We were doing the same with Doolittle in Triple A this year before he had the knee issue. It is definitely something as we go into the offseason and spring training we're going to have to prepare for.

Blez: Would the power potential for the position have a big deciding difference in who you play at first base? It's obviously still a concern with Daric because he hasn't put up much in terms of power numbers, but Carter has and Doolittle has some pop as well. Or do you maybe weigh the defense first?

Beane: Being a regular major league baseball player, the player brings a lot of elements: it's his baserunning, it's his fielding, it's his power, it's his ability to hit for average and it's when you add those things together usually one player is going to be better than the other even if he's deficient in one area because he may do one thing very well. It's not something we have to answer yet and it's definitely getting closer. We think all these guys are major league players, it's just about finding a spot for them.

Blez: What will most determine the timeline for when Chris Carter is called up to Oakland? Could he win a job out of spring training if he looks ready?

Beane: It's probably a little early to answer that. The only thing I'll say is that we wanted to give Chris some time at Triple-A and give him some confidence going into next year thinking he's seen the highest level of the minors and he could perform there. I think he did a great job in the few weeks he was there. It's just too early to answer that. I don't like creating definites at this point when you don't need to. A player usually decides when he's ready for the major leagues by performing at the highest level and at that point there's nowhere for him to go but up. Some of these guys are getting close to that.

Blez: Based on what you have seen so far, what's the current thinking on Brett Wallace's chances of being a major league every day third baseman?

Beane: We're going to leave Brett over there. He's played one full season, a total of a season and a half of professional baseball as he's moved very, very quickly because of his bat. We're going to give him the benefit of some time over there defensively and particularly given the long-term need we're going to have at that position, it would behoove us to give him every opportunity to give him the development time defensively to see if he can play the position because it would definitely be a great fit if he can play third base in the big leagues based on the personnel we have here and have coming up. It would be absolutely perfect. Especially given that Chavy (Eric Chavez) is coming into the last year of his contract, the chance that Brett with some further refining would be a very nice fit for us there long term. I guess the question is, is it still a work in progress? And we're going to give him every opportunity to prove he can play that position.

Blez: What do you do about third base, at least short term? I'm not even sure where Eric Chavez stands at this point or if he's a part of the conversation. I've read reports that he could do permanent damage to himself if he plays again. Where does Eric stand right now?

Beane: From a rehab standpoint, he's doing very well. The good thing about him having surgery when he did is that when we get into the offseason, he should have as normal an offseason as any other player. He should be able to start resuming normal baseball activities when everyone else starts. The time that he's had has been good. I think we have to be realistic including Eric because he's faced a number of surgeries and he's been more disappointed than anyone that he hasn't been able to come back completely. We have to be realistic on him coming back and have some short-term preparation as it applies to that position going into next year. I also think that Eric, given his talent level, deserves the respect and the opportunity to get healthy and given the opportunity to get back to doing what he does best. In short, we're going to try to prepare for both sides of the equation.

Blez: Where does Travis Buck stand with the team now as he seems to be caught in an almost purgatory state now between Triple-A and being up with the team but not really seeing much regular playing time? Is it the type of thing where he needs to get in there for a while to get his confidence back as he's seemed to have hit well in Triple-A?

Beane: The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian. If you hit, you're going to play. Raj is probably the best example of that. When Raj got a chance to play he hit. Since he's been playing, he's looked around saying I'm not going to let anyone else play because I know I have to perform here in order to keep myself in the lineup. Most recently, Ryan Sweeney has done the same thing. With all players, not just Travis, it's ultimately going to be based on performance. Travis has had a couple of years in a row, unfortunately, where he's had concussions that haven't enabled him to even play regularly at Triple A. He's missed some time there because of these injuries. We still think very highly of Travis for the same reasons that most people did when he first came up. We think he's got the talent to be a good major league player. At this point it's when he's given the chance he has to take advantage of it and ultimately hopefully avoiding some of those injuries he's had the last couple of years. But we still think very highly of him and one of the best things about Travis is that when he first came up one of the areas we wanted him to work on was his defense and that was addressed to him and he did. He's improved significantly in the outfield and it was an area of weakness when he first came up. Ultimately when he gets to this level it will be based on performance.

Coming tomorrow: Beane delves into the pitching, the status of the injured A's pitchers and how he sees 2010 shaping up.

Muppet Thoughts

grover — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 06:30:14 -0000

The minor league season is over and the Arizona Fall League has yet to begin. Baseball America has begun their League Top 20 lists but they haven’t hit anywhere where the A’s have qualifying individuals. Winter ball is months away (although today it seems as if winter itself is close at hand) and the A’s are being their typical tight-lipped selves regarding the goings on in Instructs. So don’t expect much in the way of minor league discussion in today’s write up. What will I talk about?

Glad you asked.

Next year’s Free Agent options, the current 2010 payroll and some interesting service time tidbits, why using FIP or any other metric to argue Cahill’s place in Oakland’s 2010 rotation is missing the point, a moment of praise to Rajai Davis’ base running skills and… I don’t know… whatever I bloody well want.

If that sounds interesting to you then I’ll see you on the flip side.

Let’s talk about money.

Money, money, money, money, money, money.

Let’s face it, we live in a capitalist society and (most of us on AN, anyways) in a country with a WTF?!?! economy that makes risky investments a rather unattractive idea. The San Diego Padres, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs are just 3 recent examples of how quickly an organization’s financial situation can change. The 2009 A’s opened up the season with a $62.3 million payroll and we know that Wolff and Fisher don’t consider the team to be a public philanthropy. The Oakland A’s are a business, and businessmen expect to turn a profit. It is difficult to turn a profit when you have no customers (I learned that in my college economics class) and the A’s have drawn fewer paying customers than any other team in major league baseball. While revenue sharing and national media deals will provide a solid chunk of money for 2010 the A’s do not draw a great deal of income through local TV or stadium licensing, meaning the loss of approximately a quarter million attendees could have an impact on the amount of money the A’s have to spend on player payroll in 2010.

Looking at the current roster and trying to anticipate the arbitration cases of 8 different players, it appears to me that the A’s have $38 million committed in salary to next year’s roster. (Keep in mind that I’ve tried to pad that figure, ‘cause it’s always easier to pocket any left over cash than it is to find more cash when the bills are due. Also, I’ve got a bit of a thing for round numbers and counting by quarters.) Let’s look at those arbitration eligible players. Eric Munson and Edgar Gonzalez might be best described as fringe level big league players, but the only way the A’s could insure that they could retain their services for next season would be to offer them arbitration. Otherwise, the A’s would need to release them and try to bid for their services as free agents. I think that is the more likely scenario, as the A’s should be more interested in finding cheap vets they can sign to minor league deals than in keeping replacement-level talent at inflated rates.

Santiago Casilla is eligible for arbitration for the first time but the combination of his injuries, his ineffectiveness and the depth of power RH arms in the A’s farm system leads me to believe that AKA Jairo Garcia will be moving on to another team. Joey Devine is coming back from season ending elbow surgery and that will probably keep his 2010 salary down, although I am still penciling in a raise to $750K. Michael Wuertz is due a huge pay bump, at least doubling his $1.1 million 2009 salary. He didn’t get many opportunities to close and arbiters tend to be distracted by shiny things like saves, so I’m figuring he’ll earn a $2.5 million salary for next year. Before I move on to the arby-eligible hitters, I want to point out that Dana Eveland is no longer looking at arbitration for next season. His early season demotion hit his service time tally very hard and he simply doesn’t have the days in to qualify for arbitration. This means the A’s have the option to bring Eveland back at $420K next season. The only downside is it looks like (assuming I’ve counted things right) that the A’s used Eveland’s last option in 2009 and if he doesn’t pitch well enough to make the Opening Day big league roster next year the A’s would have to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. Which wouldn’t be a great loss, but it is a factor to consider before deciding to invest the time and effort in giving Eveland another chance next Spring. Perhaps the coaching and innings would be better served going to another option?

Scott Hairston hasn’t performed like the A’s had hoped since they acquired him from the Padres but his early season numbers will insure a pay increase for next season. I think his late season injuries and his struggling 2nd half performance will prevent him from doubling his salary but I can see him collecting $2 million next year. Rajai Davis has only a half season of excellence to make him some money and I don’t think that UZR gets factored into the arbitration process but 40 SB is sexy and shiny. I expect Davis to more than quadruple his 2009 salary and earn a $1.75 million payday. Jack Cust leads the A’s in HR and BB but also in K’s and is a distant 2nd in RBI. UZR might not factor in the decision making process but general defensive suckitude does. I think Cust goes from $2.8 million to $4.25 million next season, although I wouldn’t blink twice if that figure went up another half million. But my official guess is 4 and a quarter.

Altogether, a $38 million commitment to the 2010 payroll.

That means the A’s have some spending money next year. But where to spend it and how much is there to spend? I doubt the A’s are going to bump the payroll beyond the $62.3 million figure from 2009 and in fact I expect to see it drop by roughly $10 million. Where am I getting that low-50’s number? Call it a gut reaction to the state of the team and the AL West, plus the lack of intriguing free agent options. The A’s are looking at a serious influx of position talent by the end of next season and it seems unlikely that the team would invest heavily in free agent vets that could potentially block the young talent and/or become expensive bench options. There are obvious holes in the roster but little in the way of value to be had in the current free agent crop.

One of the places where a major investment and change would be welcomed (by the fans, anyway) is at 3rd base. Eric Chavez is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and has barely made it on to the field over the last 3 years. There are at least 4 credible options on the free agent market that could give the A’s an immediate boost at the hot corner. Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins all offer the right mix of offense and defense that teams demand at 3rd base these days. DeRosa offers some defensive versatility and enough bat that his team will be looking to find a place to play him. The downside to DeRosa is he’s a Type A free agent and he turns 35 next February, meaning his decline could come swift and soon. Glaus is coming off a shoulder injury but should be ready to go next Spring and at 33 might be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish himself before going for 1 last big payday. He’s got enough glove to handle 3rd base should Chavez be unable to make it onto the field and his bat would play well at 1st base in the unlikely scenario that Chavez is healthy.

Figgins is intriguing because of his versatility and out of all the big ticket 3rd base options he’s actually healthy! He’ll be 32 next season and is probably looking for a 4 year deal. The cool thing about Figgins is you don’t have to worry about him blocking some stud prospect’s path, he’s got the athleticism and experience to play almost anywhere on the field. The downside is he’s a Type A free agent (yeah, me loving that 2nd round pick) and his name has been mentioned with so many teams that if even half of them are truly interested in him the A’s would be in a bidding war to land him. Beltre is battling injuries this year but he doesn’t turn 31 until the beginning of next season. Still, he picked a bad year to hit like crap. His glove is still top notch but the reality is the A’s gave up on Jack Hannahan (a quality defender at 3rd base and according to UZR a near equal to Beltre) to keep Adam Kennedy’s bat in the line-up. It’s going to take at least a 3 year deal to land Beltre (I’m guessing 3/$27 million but I could be way off) and when you think about it, the A’s would be paying all that cash for Beltre’s bat. Another thing to consider, if you believe in Brett Wallace the 3rd baseman at all, signing Beltre creates a problem. Adrian earns most of his value via the glove; his bat doesn’t play well at 1st base. You could, of course, slide Wallace to 1st base but that defeats the whole idea of him playing at the hot corner. You better decide where Brett Wallace fits in the field before paying Adrian Beltre serious coin.

There are a couple other 3rd base options that get brought up around AN on occasion. Adam Kennedy made a decent stop gap option at 3rd base this season and the A’s have already said they’d consider bringing him back. Akinori Iwamura is one of those under-rated gems that everyone knows about and thus the pursuit will resemble a piranha feeding frenzy. Joe Crede is on his way out of Minnesota but he’ll be 32 and is heading towards his 2nd back surgery and are you out of your fucking mind?! 32 and double back surgery describes Eric Chavez, that’s not a pairing we should wish the A’s to make.

If the A’s are looking to make a free agent splash, the value looks to be in the starting pitching ranks. If the D’backs decide to bid bon voyage to Brandon Webb I say the A’s need to go all in and offer him a big money deal to bring him to Oakland. Yes, he hurt his shoulder and missed almost the entire season but there was no damage to the labrum and forget about any loss of awesomeness due to changing leagues… his groundball and strike out tendencies will play well in the AL. Barring that admittedly less-than-likely scenario, Justin Duchscherer and Brett Myers might make great candidates for 1 year deals to re-establish themselves in 2010. I mean no disrespect when I say that Duke needs to get his head on straight before trying to pitch again next season. They have said they’d be interested in bringing him back next season but the onus is on Justin getting his life in order. Myers needs to get healthy and I’m guessing a change of scenery would do him good. At 29 he’s still young enough to have more than a few solid seasons if he can get his act together.

But do the A’s really need to invest potentially limited funds into the starting rotation? I mean, adding a healthy Brandon Webb is pretty much a no-brainer, especially if you can get him for a discounted rate and not the $20+ million annual C.C. Sabathia is getting from the Yankees. The answer seems to lie in how you feel about Trevor Cahill. If you hear his name and think rainbows and puppies than you’re probably disinclined to spend free agent dollars on a big ticket pitcher. If hearing "Cahill" causes you to grind your teeth than you’re probably wondering why I didn’t list Jason Marquis as a viable free agent option. Me? I think puppies.

I’ve heard the arguments for sending Cahill down to AAA to start next season. I personally feel that the best place for Cahill to work on his breaking stuff is at the big league level, however if the coaching staff disagrees then I’m more than happy to yield to their wisdom. But I’m willing to bet Curt Young isn’t spending his time on AN arguing about how Trevor Cahill needs AAA seasoning. The principle argument on AN in demoting Cahill centers around his FIP (or tRA but either number will do) courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP, for those who have ignored this discussion so far but are now drawn in by my dulcet tones, is essentially what we could expect the pitcher’s ERA to be if we could factor out team defense. Fangraphs lists 77 starting pitchers as throwing enough innings/pitching enough games to qualify for their statistical leader board. Hit the button to compare FIP and proceed to the last page, ‘cause as of 9/22 Trevor Cahill ranked last in baseball with a FIP of 5.30.

It’s a fairly simple logic stream. You’ve got a young pitcher whom we all knew was being rushed posting the worst luck-independent numbers in baseball. Why waste his service time watching him get his butt kicked when we can send him down to AAA where he belongs? My problem with that logic is, that while Cahill’s FIP score is an accurate interpretation of his 2009 season performance it doesn’t actually reflect how well he pitched this year. We knew that there were going to be days when Cahill was going to get his head handed to him on a platter. The guy had barely any experience outside of A-ball and his mechanics where inconsistent. His minor league performance carried indicators (BB/9 rate) that his game needed more polish. We knew all this and still the A’s put him on their 2009 Opening Day roster.

So why are folks so intent on punishing Cahill for living up to our expectations? I looked at the box scores of the 30 games Cahill had pitched in this season, and in 9 of those contests he either allowed 5 or more runs (earned/unearned, doesn’t matter on the scoreboard) and/or failed to pitch a full 5 innings. I don’t care what metric you choose to believe in, there isn’t a baseball fan among us who wouldn’t say that those games represent a failure on the part of the pitcher in giving his team a chance to win. Cahill earned his bottom feeding FIP in those 9 games. When you look at his record of performance you see a wide variation in outcomes and all FIP does is draw a line and say "this is the average outcome". And there’s nothing wrong with that except that it doesn’t provide a full, detailed picture of what Cahill did this season. So I asked a second question: How good did Trevor Cahill pitch this year?

Unfortunately, before I could answer my question I had to figure out how I was going to answer my question! A few years back someone (I don’t care whom) started talking about Quality Starts. The basic premise was a SP got credited with a QS anytime he lasted a minimum of 6 IP and gave up no more than 3 ER. This would help balance out those days when a pitcher just got crushed and his numbers would (unfairly?, undeservedly?) drag down his overall line. I don’t know if this was in response to Coors Field or maybe because it was the Steroid era, but while the basic idea had some merit the parameters sucked. 3 ER in 6 IP? That’s a 4.50 ERA, not exactly what I call quality from my SP.

So I decided to apply the same basic concept to the 77 SP on Fangraphs’ leader board pages, only this time I made the rules more strict. No more than 2 runs (earned/unearned count the same on the scoreboard) over a minimum of 6 IP. Then I decided to add an extra tier, so 3 runs allowed over a minimum of 7 full IP would also count on the Good side. Then I went over the game logs of every qualifying SP (further explaining the 9/22 cut-off date) and simply added up how many HQS (High Quality Starts… yeah, I expect a point deduction from the Russian judge for my lack of creativity) to see how well Mr. Worst-FIP-in-Baseball pitched.

Trevor Cahill pitched 14 HQS, tying him with 8 other SP including Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo.

14 HQS is also higher score than the performances from Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, Brett Anderson, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Rich Porcello, Roy Oswalt and 18 other big league SP who posted better FIP than Trevor Cahill.

I am not saying that this means Trevor Cahill is a better pitcher than all these guys. I am saying that on the days when Cahill’s talent outweighed his inexperience he pitched like a legitimate big league SP. And here’s the thing about inexperience, it goes away after a time. The 174 (and counting) IP that Cahill has accumulated this year with the A’s has been an invaluable learning experience for him and it should make him less prone to the epic disasters he created 9 times as a raw and unready rookie. Trevor Cahill is far from a finished project and it may be that next year the A’s will decide that the best place for him to work on his breaking ball or his mechanics or his interview clichés is in Sacramento and I’ll be fine with that.

But don’t tell me his FIP dictates the A’s purchase his bus ticket 6 months in advance.

One last things as this post has gone far longer than I intended… I mentioned this in another thread but I feel it bears repeating. With a little over half-a-season’s worth of playing time Bill James ranks Rajai Davis as the 4th best base runner in all of baseball. This is counting Davis’ stolen base and base running performance, and on a team lacking in power those skills are very important (even in a non-starting role) to help create runs.

Alright, I’ve rattled on long enough. Sorry for the lateness of today’s Front Page write up but folks seemed to be enjoying the Davis and Holliday themed articles already up. Besides, you can’t rush greatness.

Or in my case… my typing.

And thank you for your support.

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

Twins interested in A's Cabrera

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 01:52:07 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Browse more photos »

The Twins appear willing to add payroll at the trade deadline to make a late season push, and are setting their sites on A's shortstop Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera has been tearing it up in July, hitting .380 with 2 home runs and 6 extra-base hits. Cabrera is a career .277 hitter in the second half of the season, but has a reputation around the league of being a player who lifts his teammates game to the next level.

The Twins also have some interest in Michael Wuertz, meaning the A's could host a mini fire sale and land a pair of above average prospects in return. The A's can afford to trade Cabrera with Crosby and Garciaparra ready to platoon at short, while Joey Devine and Justin Duchscherer will be ready to man the bullpen in 2010. If the Twins offer the right prospects, they could strike a deal.

However, the Tribune says that neither team is very aggressive, mostly because the Twins are still in talks with the Pirates over Freddy Sanchez and have veteran Mark Grudzielanek in the minors gearing up for the second half of the season. One team will have to pull the trigger.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera	94	383	37	105	21	0	4	39	23	35	8	4	.274	.312	.360

Poll

Who is more likely to be traded?

Orlando Cabrera

88 votes

Freddy Sanchez

80 votes

168 votes | Poll has closed

A's to be Active as Deadline Approaches?

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 00:31:20 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Browse more photos »

Due to an influx of reliable late inning relievers, teams are targeting the A's for potential trades. One reliever, Michael Wuertz, is drawing more interest than most because he has proven that he can have success in both leagues. The A's can expect power arm Joey Devine to be back and ready for the 2010 season, and moving Wuertz would clear a spot for Justin Duchscherer, who would benefit from a reduced role. Not to mention he received his first All-Star nod in the set up role.

The Athletics are not ones to swing deals on whim, so you can expect them to scour the market for an up and coming shortstop or third baseman. In a market like this, you can bet that general managers are doing their best to manufacture deals and target cheap help. If anyone has a positive track record at succeeding in trades like this, it's Billy Beane.

The Braves like to trade first round draft picks

gondeee — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 13:00:13 -0000

Are you a big fan of Jason Heyward? How about Cody Johnson? Do you think they'll be in an Atlanta Braves uniform one day? And for how long? Since 2000, how many first round picks would you say the Braves still have in their organization? Counting first rounders and supplemental first rounders here is a list:

2000 - 2 first rounders, 2 supplemental - Adam Wainwright traded to the Cardinals
2001 - 2 first rounders, 1 supplemental - Macay McBride traded to the Tigers, Richard Lewis traded to the Cubs
2002 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Jeff Francoeur traded to the Mets, Dan Meyer to the Athletics
2003 - 2 supplemental - Luis Atilano traded to the Nationals, Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Rangers
2004 - no first rounders
2005 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Joey Devine traded to the Athletics, Beau Jones to the Rangers
2006 - 1 first, 2 supplemental - no trades, but Steve Evarts has already been released
2007 - 1 first, 1 supplemental - Jon Gilmore traded to the White Sox

Of all the first rounders and supplemental first rounders we've drafted since 2000, only one, Kelly Johnson, is still in the majors with Atlanta, and he is on the disabled list. Furthermore, he and Chipper Jones (1990) are the only ones still in the organization of those first rounders drafted before 2006. From 2000 to 2007, 10 of the Braves 18 first round picks were traded!

I'm not sure if there is any analysis that can be gleaned from this list, other than the fact that the Braves certainly aren't afraid to use their prospects to acquire major league talent. I'm not all that familiar with other organization's minor league talent, but I would posit that there isn't another organization that comes close to trading away more than 50% of their first round picks over the course of nine years.

It's reunion time in Oakland

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:01:32 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Arguably the two most dangerous Athletic bats are former Rockies. But neither have been Oakland's best hitter to date.

Browse more photos »

The storyline of this series goes without saying. It is MLB's only primary green team vs. the only team that wears purple. Oh wait - we don't even wear purple anymore. Right - that whole Matt Holliday/Carlos Gonzalez/Huston Street bit.

There's not a whole lot to say on that front. It will be the first time the trio play their former team - more of an event for Holliday and Street, who were both celebrated for years as premium players for their former clubs. Street has become a solid if not fantastic closer while Gonzalez furthers his reputation as a possible AAAA player.

As for Holliday, he is still working uphill from that terrible start. His wOBA is lower than every year in his career, including his rookie year, and his OPS+ only exceeds that same 2004 campaign. So it's not JUST being away from Coors. His OPS has not reached .900 and his average have not reached .300 once this season. He is currently on an 18-game, 64-AB homerless drought. He has actually had a worse offensive season than the Rockies' fifth outfielder if you compare Fangraphs offensive value.

Oakland got off to a miserably sluggish start like Holliday - and the Rockies. On June 1, the A's were actually one half game worse (19-30) than Colorado (20-30), but like the Rockies, June brought a bit of a surge. Bob Geren's club reeled off seven straight at the beginning of June to bring them within four games of .500, but they have lost 10 of their last 15 to drop back to earth.

The Rockies last played the Athletics June 18-20, 2006, when they outscored the A's 15-3 at Coors Field. However they haven't played in Oakland since being swept in 2001. In fact, the Rockies won their first ever game in the Coliseum in 1997 thanks to a dominant start by Roger Bailey, yet they have lost all seven games there since. The A's are only 3-8 at Coors Field though, so it evens out to a 9-10 Rockies record all-time vs. Oakland.

Colorado is now 8-4 in interleague play; Oakland is just 5-10 with a modest 17-17 overall home record.

The Rockies absolutely must win this series against an inferior team. After dropping a series in Anaheim in which they outscored the Angels, they can't afford to head to Dodger Stadium needing a sweep for a winning road trip.

Athletics Nation is Oakland's SBNation blog, actually the oldest among us all. In case you missed it in the offseason, here's a classic view on the Matt Holliday trade from AN from January.

Oakland Athletics (31-40, L2, 4th, 8.0 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

The Bats: D-

Bob Geren has toyed with the lineup to a great degree trying to spark some offense. Suzuki could bat second, pushing Cust, Holliday and Giambi down one spot. OFRajai Davis (.240/.309/.340), C Landon Powell (.182/.258/.364) and IF's Daric Barton (1-for-14, 2B) and Nomar Garciaparra (.254/.274/.390) fill out the bench.

This is my best guess on the lineup, which is just outright terrible (the guess and the lineup):

LINEUP

Avg

HR

RBI

OBP

SLG

wOBA

Adam Kennedy - 2B
.298

6

24

.368

.474

.369

Jack Cust - RF
.227

13

37

.313

.421

.323

Matt Holliday - LF
.269

8

39

.367

.423

.352

Jason Giambi - DH
.205

10

37

.341

.384

.326

Kurt Suzuki - C
.278

4

27

.325

.400

.320

Orlando Cabrera - SS
.243

2

25

.289

.313

.264

Bobby Crosby - 1B
.190

3

17

.291

.306

.275

Ryan Sweeney - CF
.254

2

18

.315

.320

.289

Jack Hannahan - 3B
.191

1

8

.273

.304

.262

That lineup features your worst offensive 3B and 1B in MLB, plus the 2nd worst shortstop, only to 2007 NL MVP (*cough cough*) Jimmy Rollins. The Rockies can field a lineup with a better offensive player at all nine positions (even left field!) except second base - by wOBA anyway. Speaking of which, utilizing that, this lineup has two solid above average hitters (Kennedy and Holliday), three a bit below average (Giambi, Cust and Suzuki), one very below average (Sweeney) and three don't belong on the field, let alone an MLB starting lineup (Cabrera, Crosby, Hannahan).

Overall, the Athletics have the lowest batting average in the majors (about Torrealba level), the 6th least runs scored, 6th least HR, and are dead last in wOBA at .299. I know I know, sample size. But I can't resist pointing out their team wOBA is 8 points worse than Ubaldo Jimenez'.

Should we treat their lineup like nine Ubaldo's? Obviously not. They get a significant disadvantage playing at the Coliseum, but still, their roster OPS+ is just 82, worse than every Rockie except Quintanilla, Gonzalez and Atkins. Any way you slice it, this is a terrible offense. Those big offseason additions of Cabrera, Holliday, Giambi and Garciaparra have done very little.

The Arms: C+

The Rockies draw the top two Oakland's starters. Gone are the days of the big three, but Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill are still solid young arms with upside. Brett Anderson's scheduled start tonight has been pushed to Monday due to biceps inflammation, so Braden and Cahill will each move up a day; both have an ERA+ of over 112. Vin Mazzaro moves into Sunday's spot - the 22 year old righty has been impressive in five starts this season. Rookie Andrew Bailey has stepped in to be a dominant closer in place of Brad Ziegler, who still gets an opportunity now and again.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Andrew Bailey	4-1	2.23	1.04	50	18

Overall, the club has an 97 ERA+, which is a tick below average, but some of the deadweight pulling that stat down are not on the roster or won't be starting in the series.

The team is 13th in ERA (13th for starters, 15th for relievers) and 11th in FIP (15th and 2nd), so despite lacking big names, the Athletics continue to put forth an above average staff. Other arms Bob Geren leans on in the pen include Michael Wuertz, Russ Springer, Santiago Casilla, and Craig Breslow.

The D: C-

The A's have a UZR/150 rating at 1.6, slightly better than average. They 50 errors (8th in MLB) and are 8th worst in fielding percentage. That washes out to a slightly below average defense.

The Ballpark: Pitching Park

The multi-year park factor is 93, giving a pitching advantage over the last few years equivalent to the offensive advantage at Coors the last few years. This year, it is at 97, mirroring Coors' migration to average, so it is still as much of a pitching park as Coors is a hitting park this year.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 8:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	4-3	4.41	1.50	46	17

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Dallas Braden	5-6	3.26	1.29	62	25

Saturday, June 27, 7:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	3-7	5.85	1.51	82	36

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Trevor Cahill	5-5	3.68	1.34	41	33

Sunday, June 24, 2:05 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	7-3	4.00	1.33	46	30

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Vin Mazzaro	2-2	2.56	1.07	20	8

Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill have each thrown 7 consecutive quality starts, though Oakland is only 7-7 in those games. Vin Mazzaro has four QS's in his five starts this season - in his only non-quality start, he allowed four runs to just miss the qualification. Andrew Bailey has been unscored upon in 10 of his last 11 outings. Ryan Sweeney is 6 for his last 17 and Orlando Cabrera has a .855 OPS in his last 6 games.

Matt Holliday is 12 for his last 58 (8 singles and 4 doubles) for a .208 average since June 7. He only has two more home runs than Adam Kennedy this season. Jack Cust is only 4 for his last 24, Bobby Crosby just 1-for-10 and Jason Giambi has scratched out just three hits in his last 15 trips.

Pitcher Josh Outman (best name for a pitcher ever) is on the 15-day DL with an elbow injury. Dan Giese (elbow) is on the 60-day DL, as are four very prominant names on the roster: 3B Eric Chavez (back), 2B Mark Ellis (calf), and pitchers Joey Devine (elbow) and Justin Duchsherer (elbow). The elbow epidemic in Oakland is killing them.

Poll

How will be rebound from consecutive losses in Anaheim?

We won't. This team is fragile and is affected by streaks too much in both directions. We'll struggle to hit in the Coliseum and get swept.

3 votes

The doubt is there, and we manage to win just one game, probably while outscoring Oakland for the series

11 votes

A solid road series win against a mediocre home team and terrible offense sounds reasonable

53 votes

Matt Holliday doesn't get the Monforts' green, but he does match his uni with envy after watching his former club sweep his struggling team.

20 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adam Kennedy - 2B	.298	6	24	.368	.474	.369
Jack Cust - RF	.227	13	37	.313	.421	.323
Matt Holliday - LF	.269	8	39	.367	.423	.352
Jason Giambi - DH	.205	10	37	.341	.384	.326
Kurt Suzuki - C	.278	4	27	.325	.400	.320
Orlando Cabrera - SS	.243	2	25	.289	.313	.264
Bobby Crosby - 1B	.190	3	17	.291	.306	.275
Ryan Sweeney - CF	.254	2	18	.315	.320	.289
Jack Hannahan - 3B	.191	1	8	.273	.304	.262