SB Nation - Brad Wilkerson

I'm Not the Way I Thought I Was: Solving the Blue Jays' DH-Sized Dilemma

hugo — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider's ineffectiveness and subsequent injury has left the Jays in the lurch for a competent designated hitter. How to solve this vexing problem? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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So, as you B^3-ers likely remember, the Jays had a bit of trouble at the DH spot last season. Jays' DHs batted .247/.325/.418, well below league-average DH production. It was especially problematic for a team like the 2008 Jays, who were built around pitching and defense, to have such tepid production out of the offense-only DH spot. Even worse was the production out of left field (.258/.325/.384), the second-least important defensive position.

Going into this season, Jays faithful were told that this was the year of Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Most of the "credit" for the poor DH/LF performance was due to Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench -- I won't even show their numbers, because they are awful, but just trust me -- and those 5 gentlemen were all gone. Here on B^3, we thought Lind was ready for prime-time, but we debated the merits of acquiring a LF/DH bat, especially with the market cold on guys like Pat Burrell, and starting Snider in the minors rather than just throwing him into the fire. I can't remember what we concluded, so let's assume that we all unanimously agreed that Snider wasn't quite ready to make the necessary adjustments once the league got a taste of him and that he should start in the minors.

Fast forward to the end of June, we're almost but not quite halfway through the season, and the Jays are doing well, sitting 5 games over .500 and just 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card lead. And, yet, a familiar problem...

Snider started hot but cooled off quickly and drastically. He was sent to the minors where he hurt himself and won't even be swinging a bat again until July. I think it's safe to assume he'll be a September callup, if anything. Adam Lind started the season as the regular DH and was fantastic but took over leftfield duties when Snider was sent down. Lind, unlike Snider, plays against lefties and righties (a healthy .847 OPS against lefties), so he doesn't need a platoon partner. But so who should play DH?

The Contenders:

Kevin Millar: Copacetic Up? Millar started the season as Lyle Overbay's platoon partner but Overbay has been hitting so well lately (though his numbers against lefties are pretty poor still) and offers so much more defensively that you can make the argument that Lyle should be playing every day. Millar has never shown much platoon-i-ness, and offers all that gooey clubhouse stuff, so he'd seem like a logical choice to take the everyday DH spot, right? Not so fast! You might not have noticed if you don't have a Millar effigy you punch in the face every morning like our very own Tom Dakers, but old Kev's hitting hasn't exactly been up to par lately. He's presently batting a putrid .246/.318/.388, which is actually worse than our DH production from last year. He's doing all right against lefties (.821 OPS) but absolutely putrid against righties (a Mac-like .596 OPS) so he might be half of the answer (actually more like 1/3 of it) but definitely is not the full answer. And he's been awful for the past two months (.647 OPS in May, .618 in June). Next.

Jose Bautista: Bautista has always hit lefties well -- he has a career .819 OPS against them -- and this season is no exception. Jose is batting .302/.383/.472/.855 against portsiders, definitely well enough to be the right-handed third of a DH platoon. But he has always been a bad hitter against righties, and this season, far from being an exception, has been much worse -- we're talking .217/.397/.250 bad, albeit in just 80 plate appearances. You'll notice from the high OBP that Bautista has earned a lot of walks against righties, and that's certainly true. On the flipside, he has seemed afraid to swing the bat against them, and perhaps for good reason given his poor hitting. Bautista has a long career of being a bad major-league hitter against righthanded pitching (.683 career OPS against them). Bautista wouldn't be a bad option to DH against lefties, but as an everyday DH he's a terrible choice. And of course DH-ing him would compromise his versatility in the field (since the DH can't replace a fielder unless the pitcher bats). And Jose is needed to spell Rolen fairly frequently.

Russ Adams: Recently called up to the Jays, Russ Adams isn't anybody's first idea of a DH. He has an 81 OPS+ over his major-league career and, up until recently, was a middle infielder. That said, Adams has been attempting to re-make himself into a utility player over the past few seasons, with some success. He hasn't lit up AAA at all the past two seasons, but he had a nice second half last year and started well this season (.876 OPS with Las Vegas in 2009). Of course, you have to look at those numbers in the context of the PCL, but in truth Adams has never been all that bad of a hitter against right-handed pitching. Over Russ' career, he has a .725 OPS against starboard-side hurlers, not great but considerably better than Millar and Bautista are doing against righties at the moment (and, in Bautista's case, over his career). Consider that Adams is in his hitting prime while Millar is way past it. And Russ certainly offers more than either of those two on the basepaths.

An interesting comparison for Adams is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is the same age as Adams and his career has followed a similar path - a former SS whose plate discipline in the minors didn't translate to the majors right away and who moved from SS amidst concerns about his defense. Zobrist, unlike Adams, is a switch-hitter, but he's pretty much exclusively used as a lefty hitter and has remade himself as a platoon utility player and corner-infielder. Zobrist had a great 1/3 or so of a season last year in that role and has been even better this season in the same role. He's not all that different of a hitter than Adams and, while I'm not suggesting Adams will put up an OPS north of 1.000 in 225 plate appearances, as Zobrist has done thusfar, there's at least some precedent for the idea that a former middle-infield prospect can become a successful platoon-type corner outfielder.

Randy Ruiz: Ruiz, essentially a career minor-leaguer, has a nice track record in the minors, and is currently OPS-ing .971 with AAA Las Vegas, with solid power numbers. On the other hand, he's a right-handed hitter (though he has hit well against righties in the minors) so a platoon isn't really an option and his hitting didn't translate to the majors last season in his first taste of the bigs (at 30). He probably wouldn't be any worse than starting Millar every day, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great option as an everyday DH.

David Dellucci: Dellucci was recently acquired by the Jays as a lefthanded bat and has been playing a bit in AAA. Looch hit .275/.333/.350 in 45 plate appearances for Cleveland earlier this season, isn't doing much in the minors, and is 3 years removed from his last even league average season. His bat speed seems to be fading. I don't think he's the answer either.

Brian Dopirak: He's only at AA, but with the 1st base and DH spots occupied by guys hitting well (Ruiz and Brett Harper) at AAA, he's more than earned a promotion and with the hole we have at DH, why not to the bigs? There's no doubt that Dopirak's line -- .307/.369/.580, with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 291 plate appearances -- is impressive, and he's 25 years old so there's no argument that he's too young. Dopirak, like Ruiz , Millar, and Bautista, bats righthanded, so he would need to be the everyday DH to get the at-bats he'd need to make it worth bringing him up. He's hit righties quite well this season though.

????: I haven't heard the Jays to be seriously involved in trade talks for a bat, but it's possible they could bring someone in from outside the organization to DH. Dakers has mentioned Nick Johnson, and he's certainly a good hitter (126 lifetime OPS+). He's putting up excellent numbers in a pitchers' park right now, and he is a patient, tough out with a gap to gap approach. Folks have said he's having a career year, but he's not -- he's in with his career numbers, but just healthy after an awful string of bad luck and accidents. DHing might keep him healthy, and his contract runs out at the end of this season so I can't imagine the Nationals would want more than a minor-league arm or two for him. It might be worth a look. Other possibilities? For sentimental reasons, how about Frank Catalanotto? He wouldn't cost more than a PTBNL, I'd imagine. But he hasn't done anything this season and he wasn't great last year either, so I'm not sure what type of upgrade he'd be over Dellucci. There are other bats available, so by all means, who do you want to DH for the Jays? Unless they make a move for Johnson or someone else, I'm afraid the best option is a Bautista/Adams or Millar/Adams platoon, and that's not exactly encouraging if the Jays plan to continue to contend, is it? So let's hear it -- who would you DH from now on?

Title from a great song by the great Madison, Wisconsin band Rainer Maria

Not Your Typical Rangers

Brendan Scolari — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 21:35:52 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

After decades of futility, the future is finally starting to look bright for the Texas Rangers.

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The Texas Rangers franchise hasn't exactly been known for its success. The Rangers have never won a playoff series in their entire history, dating back to 1961 when they were the Washington Senators. In fact, the Rangers have only ever one one playoff game. However, things are starting to change in Arlington.

The general manager of the Rangers, Jon Daniels, took over for John Hart (who loved every pick of the draft this year) after the 2005 season. Daniels' early tenure was marred by failed trades, most notably when he traded away Alfonso Soriano, Adrian Gonzalez, and Chris Young in two seperate deals and only managed to get back Brad Wilkerson, Akinori Otsuka, and Adam Eaton. That's quite the downgrade.

However, the Rangers would turn the page and soon after began to build on what currently looks like a future powerhouse. After letting type-A free agents like Carlos Lee, Mark Derosa, and Gary Matthews Jr. leave to get extra draft picks, the Rangers made a new commitment to investing in the draft and scouring Latin America for young players. They also traded away their older and more expensive players for cheap young talent. This began with the massive haul they received for Mark Teixeira (Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones) but they also received key players in the Kenny Lofton and Eric Gagne deals. Most people thought it would take another year or two for the Rangers to turn things around, but they've already shown that they can win their division this year.

Jamey Newberg of the Ranger's blog "The Newberg Report" chronicles what it takes to build a successful franchise and how the Rangers five step plan was put into action.

1. Divest at The Top: The Rangers traded away older players for young prospects under team control.

2. Reinvest at The Foundation: The Rangers let type A free agents leave, aggresively signed the top draftees like Justin Smoak, Derek Holland, and Taylor Teagarden (they also drafted Tanner Scheppers in the supplemental first round this year even though he will want top dollar), and invested in marquee Latin American talent.

3. Accelerate, challenge: Let the young players play and develop. The Rangers made the tough decision to move Michael Young to 3rd to make room for top prospect Elvis Andrus start at shortstop in 2009.

4. Lock in the core: They've locked up their young players like Ian Kinsler and Blalock and have had discussions about giving Josh Hamilton an extension.

5. Bang. This is the one step the Rangers have yet to address as of yet but they could start as soon as this year. They have lots of spare young players that can be used as trade chips if they feel they need to upgrade and should have payroll flexibility in the coming years to sign free agents.

Note the similiartities to the success the Dodgers are enjoying. A commitment was placed on developing young talent, and with the help of Logan White the Dodgers cultivated one of the best minor league systems in the game. While Ned Colletti was conservative with the young players, they were eventually put in positions where the team was dependant on their success. And as the young players started to grow, veteran talent was brought in from outside the organization to support the young core in the form of Derek Lowe, Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, etc.

This plan is really the basis for all successful organization, and it is one the Dodgers must not abandon as they finally start to bear the fruits of it. They need to continue to emphasize obtaining young, talented players, locking them up to keep their salaries down (Billingsley, Kemp, Ethier, and Broxton should all be approached about extensions in the offseason), and filling in the weak spots through free agency. The Dodgers are blessed with being in the second biggest market in the country, but if they become overly reliant on spending money in free agency it will eventually negatively impact the team.

The Rangers are a dangerous looking team already, currently in first place with a 34-25 record. But this is just the beginning. They have a deep, talented young roster, a stacked farm system, and a front office committed to winning. With the way both franchises are looking, I wouldn't be shocked if the Dodgers and Rangers meet up in October some time in the not too distant future.

Analyzing Market Inefficiencies: Players Below Replacement Level

Jack Moore — Thu, 28 May 2009 04:22:16 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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Sky's Note: I'm psyched to introduce another new BtB writer, Jack Moore. He's a Brewers fan, but we'll deal with that if he continues to write awesome articles like this one and the one below. Be nice to the new guy, and feel free to drop him a tweet at @jh_moore. Ok, enough linkage, read this:

Every year, there are at least a few players that make us scratch our head and say, "Wait, he's still in the Major Leagues?" These are players that are consistently at or below replacement level and yet continue to receive playing time and even occasionally receive contracts above the minimum in lieu of freely available talent. These consistently poor decisions made by front offices across the country beg the question - what are these players doing to earn roster spots? Let's take a look at four categories of players that have performed below replacement level over the past 3 calendar years, with a minimum of 500 plate appearances.

Category 1: One-Tool Sluggers

These guys are good at one thing, and one thing only: hitting home runs. This is the kind of market inefficiency that may be on its way out with the prevalence of defense among front offices now. Included in this category are 8 of the 23 players who have been below replacement level over the last 3 calendar years with at least 500 plate appearances.

Player	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	Wins	ISO (career)	ISO (last3)	difference	UZR+PosAdj	POS	NOTES
Marcus Thames	0.5	-12.3	21.5	-11.9	-0.2	0.256	0.252	0.004	-24.2	COF	43 HR in 646 PA
Richie Sexson	-11.0	-18.9	27.3	-16.9	-1.9	0.246	0.198	0.048	-35.8	1B	33 HR in 818 PA
Jonny Gomes	0.0	-16.3	19.4	-14.1	-1.1	0.219	0.193	0.026	-30.4	COF	25 HR in 586 PA
Jeff Baker	-11.8	-1.8	17.2	-6.7	-0.3	0.201	0.152	0.049	-8.5	ALL	16 HR in 516 PA
Wily Mo Pena	-18.3	-2.8	17.4	-7.6	-1.1	0.194	0.146	0.048	-10.4	COF	15 HR in 523 PA
Brad Wilkerson	-12.9	-4.0	23.3	-12.2	-0.6	0.193	0.180	0.013	-16.2	ALL OF	24 HR in 698 PA
Craig Monroe	-26.4	-6.1	22.2	-11.5	-2.1	0.191	0.179	0.012	-17.6	COF	23 HR in 668 PA
David Dellucci	-12.5	-7.2	20.6	-12.6	-1.1	0.180	0.148	0.032	-19.8	COF	15 HR in 619 PA

Fantasy players value players like these because they can straight up clobber the baseball out of the ballpark. Looking at other skills necessary to be a major leaguer, however, these seven just come up short. None of these seven play a premium position (Baker did play 76 games at 2B and 3B combined, but never stuck anywhere), and where they do end up fielding they are well below average with the glove. Only Jonny Gomes flashed any legitimate amount of speed on the bases (20 SB to 5 CS). Even with the bat, despite the high power numbers, only two of the seven grade out as average, as their on-base skills simply are not at a major league level. This group overall, for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, got on-base at a .299 clip and had a staggering K/BB ratio of 2.98. Combining poor fielding with the inability to reach base make these players unplayable despite their great power.

Category 2: Aging Veterans

These guys are all at least 30 years old and experiencing a definitely decline in ability with their age. Many of these players not only played well in their 20s but some were even stars (the most notable player on this list, Nomar Garciaparra, put up 41.5 WAR between 1997 and 2003). Instead of focusing on ISO, I'd like to focus on Speed Score with this group.

Player	Age	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	Wins	Spd(career)	Spd(last3)	difference	UZR+PosAdj	POS	NOTES
Nomar Garciaparra	35	-8.6	-13.0	23.3	-4.5	-0.3	5.90	2.23	3.67	-17.5	1B/3B	41.5 WAR 1997-2003
Mike Sweeney	35	-8.5	0.5	16.9	-14.0	-0.5	3.50	1.46	2.04	-13.5	1B	13.6 WAR 2000-2002
Jose Vidro	34	-5.4	-3.9	31.8	-23.1	-0.1	3.20	1.85	1.35	-27	DH	8.0 WAR 2002-2003
Mark Kotsay	33	-18.8	-5.7	22.1	1.0	-0.1	4.80	2.85	1.95	-4.7	CF	12.0 WAR 2002-2004
Frank Catalanotto	35	0.2	-10.8	21.8	-13.1	-0.2	5.00	3.85	1.15	-23.9	1B	3.9 WAR in 2001
Dave Roberts	36	-8.9	-10.1	19.1	-1.9	-0.2	8.60	7.55	1.05	-12	CF/LF	3 seasons above 2.0 WAR
Corey Patterson	30	-36.0	1.1	29.8	4.1	-0.1	7.20	6.50	0.70	5.2	CF	4.9 WAR in 2004
Gary Matthews Jr.	34	-14.9	-28.6	38.8	-4.0	-0.9	5.60	5.09	0.51	-32.6	ALL OF	9.5 WAR 2004-2006

For the most part, this group of players were, at some point in their careers, plus defenders playing at premium positions. Most notably, Roberts was pushed out of CF, Garciaparra lost the ability to play SS, and Vidro was moved from 2B to DH. Similar to the sluggers, the biggest reason these players are below replacement is because of their minimal defensive values, whether it's because they can't play their positions any more (Roberts is +37 runs career by TotalZone, and had a -7 year in 2007) or simpy don't have the bat for the position any more (Sweeney's +0.5 UZR pales when shown next to a -14.0 positional adjustment). Patterson is the anomaly here, as his defensive value including position is a quite respectable +5.2, but his bat died in 2008, posting a ridiculous -26.6 wRAA. An interesting thing to note here is the decline in speed score. Every single one of these players showed a decline of at least .50 with an average decrease of 1.55. A decline of 1.55 is certainly concerning if not alarming in a stat with a range of 0-10, and it likely explains why these players are no longer assets on defense.

Category 3: AAAA Players

This group just plain does not fit on any major league roster. Still, they seem to find work filling benches or even occasionally starting for the lowest of the low. As a fan, if you have to see one of these players getting consistent at bats, you know your team is in trouble. These players excel at nothing, and really never have.

Player	Age	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	Wins	UZR+PosAdj	POS	NOTES
Jose Castillo	29	-27.1	-4.5	22.8	3.7	-0.5	-0.8	2B/3B	-1.2 career WAR
Ross Gload	33	-15.4	3.2	27.9	-18.9	-0.3	-15.7	1B	-1.2 career WAR
Chris Burke	29	-23.1	1.9	20.7	-0.7	-0.1	1.2	ALL	1.9 career WAR

I really have explanation as to why Ross Gload has ever been on a major league roster. He's a light hitting, average fielding first baseman, which probably has never been in demand. Jose Castillo plays a decent enough 3B but has no bat to back it up. These two players have not only been terrible recently, but have made an entire career out of it. Chris Burke's career, on the other hand, may be salvageable. He does have a positive career WAR, and it is possible that he was simply being used incorrectly. As an outfielder, he has a career UZR/150 of 0.1, but at 2B his UZR/150 is 7.2. With 2B being more valuable than the COF spots that Burke had spent so much time in, it's possible that Burke could become a 1 win player going forward.

Category 4: Hot Prospects

Occasionally, a prospect gets rushed to the big leagues by virtue of injuries or shortages at the ML level or simply an overzealous front office. These three players all have received hype in some way, shape, or form, and were supposed to play like major leaguers at a very young age. Unfortunately for their fans and their front offices, they have not performed to any major leaguer's standards, much less that of a first round pick.

Player	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	Wins	ISO (career)	UZR+PosAdj	POS	NOTES
Josh Fields	-14.5	-15.6	20.4	0.7	-0.9	0.187	-14.9	3B	18th pick in 2004
Delmon Young	-12.3	-29.8	46.6	-14.4	-1.0	0.117	-44.2	COF	1st pick in 2003
Alexi Casilla	-27.1	-4.1	24.4	2.8	-0.4	0.069	-1.3	2B	Signed out of DR in 2003 at age 19

This group is probably the most unique of them all, each showing different ways to produce at a below-replacement level. Casilla has the glove to potentially be an average player right now, and Young's bat could play at a tougher position. Fields shows the worst of both worlds, showing no indication of major league talent except for the ability to hit for power. These players were likely rushed to the majors too quickly, but who knows if any amount of minor league time could correct their problems. Another problem for these GMs is that these players are too talented to just get rid of, and may clog up roster spots on these teams for years to come.

Finally, let's take a look at the salaries these players received.

Player	Wins	Salary (2007+2008)	Over Minimum	Player	Wins	Salary (2007+2008)	Over Minimum
Jeff Baker	-0.3	0.8	0	Frank Catalanotto	-0.2	7.5	6.7
Josh Fields	-0.9	0.8	0	Craig Monroe	-2.1	7.6	6.8
Alexi Casilla	-0.4	0.8	0	David Dellucci	-1.1	7.6	6.8
Chris Burke	-0.1	1.4	0.6	Brad Wilkerson	-0.6	8.3	7.5
Marcus Thames	-0.2	1.7	0.9	Mike Sweeney	-0.5	11.5	10.7
Jonny Gomes	-1.1	1.7	0.9	Dave Roberts	-0.2	11.5	10.7
Ross Gload	-0.3	1.9	1.1	Mark Kotsay	-0.1	15	14.2
Jose Castillo	-0.5	2.6	1.8	Gary Matthews Jr.	-0.9	15.8	15
Delmon Young	-1.0	2.7	1.9	Jose Vidro	-0.1	16	15.2
Wily Mo Pena	-1.1	3.2	2.4	Nomar Garciaparra	-0.3	18	17.2
Chad Tracy	-0.1	7	6.2	Richie Sexson	-1.9	31	30.2
Corey Patterson	-0.1	7.3	6.5	Average	-0.61	7.9	7.1
--	--	--	--	*TOTAL*	*-14.03*	*181.7*	*163.3*

Between these 23 players, teams have wasted 163.3 million dollars giving them roster spots. Between Jose Videro and Richie Sexson alone, the Mariners wasted 45.4 million dollars in 2007 and 2008. Even a larger market team like Seattle can't handle inexcusable contracts like those two. These are the kind of mistakes that kill small and middle market teams. As the economy worsens, it'll certainly be interesting to see if these inefficiencies remain or if different types of below replacement players surface.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:26:26 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

He may not be so good at high fives, but Todd Coffey's other skills made up for it yesterday.

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Some things to read while playing D&D with Vin Diesel.

Jeff Suppan surprised many of us with a solid performance yesterday, but how much weight do you put on it? Tom H. called yesterday Suppan's "Redemption Day." Two-Fisted Slopper called Suppan's outing a "great success."

With that said, Citi Field is already being credited as one of baseball's greatest pitcher's parks. Buster Olney and Ryan Braun both noted how hard it is to hit the ball out. It's likely not a coincidence that the two teams averaged less than three runs per contest this weekend despite starts from Jeff Suppan, Livan Hernandez and Nelson Figueroa.

For context, Nelson Figueroa pitched at about the same level as Jeff Suppan yesterday, and after the game he was designated for assignment.

A couple of other Citi Field tidbits: Here's Brian Anderson's view from the broadcast booth and Cute Sports' rundown of complaints about the views from the visitors bullpen and radio booth.

There were, however, no complaints about the performance of Todd Coffey. Coffey recorded eight outs for the save yesterday. Even though a pitcher who completes the last three innings of a win is awarded a save regardless of the score, Coffey's 2.2 inning save yesterday was the 17th longest save since the start of the 2008 season, and the longest in a game decided by less than four runs. Michael Hunt thinks the Brewer bullpen may have reached a turning point. Certainly, Trevor Hoffman's projected Sunday return won't hurt.

So, having salvaged one win in New York, the Brewers move on to Philadelphia, where they're not looking to avenge their 2008 playoff defeat. That's a good thing, because trading a playoff series loss for a win in April wouldn't be fair anyway.

Jason Kendall might get more than his usual day off this week, as it's being reported that he's playing with a sore arm after being hit by a foul tip over the weekend. I don't think anyone around here will be too upset if Mike Rivera gets a few extra starts.

For some, though, it's a story when their arm isn't sore. Mark Rogers hit 97 on the gun in his second outing back with Brevard County. He's on a 50 pitch limit for the first half of the season, but has pitched two trouble-free outings. (h/t FanShot)

Across the league:

Angels: Vladimir Guerrero has a torn pec muscle, will miss at least a month and may not play the field again in 2009.
Astros: Scheduled a press conference for tonight and are expected to announce they've picked up Cecil Cooper's option for 2010.
Blue Jays: Placed Michael Barrett on the DL with a torn muscle and possible fracture in his shoulder.
Braves: Designated Blaine Boyer for assignment.
Mets: Placed Brian Schneider on the DL with a strained muscle in his back.
Nationals: Placed CF Roger Bernadina on the DL with a broken ankle and Cristian Guzman on the DL with a hamstring strain. They also designated Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell for assignment and signed Ryan Zimmerman to a five year deal worth $45 million.
Padres: Placed Walter Silva on the DL with a forearm strain.
Rangers: Designated reliever Josh Rupe for assignment.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson, who had been playing in AAA Pawtucket, has decided to retire.
Twins: Designated Phil Humber for assignment and claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Rockies. Humber was considered a key part of the deal that sent Johan Santana to the Mets.

This is small sample size in all of its glory, but there's a lot of early talk about home runs flying out of New Yankee Stadium, and phrases like pitcher's nightmare are being thrown about. Maybe someone is already doing this, but it certainly doesn't look like it: If you can design a system that analyzes new ballparks and estimates their park factor before they open, you might be in line to make a lot of money.

Oh, and Mr. Met has an office at Citi Field.

Drink up.

Brad Wilkerson Retires

ltrain2 — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 10:33:26 -0000

Brad Wilkerson, an eight-year veteran of the MLB, has officially retired from professional baseball.

Triple-A Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson told the newspaper that following the second game of the season, Wilkerson walked into his office and said he was done with baseball.

"Second game of the season, he came in afterwards and that was it," Johnson said. "He didn't have the fire anymore."

Wilkerson was only hitting .111 with 4 strikeouts after his first nine at-bats before retiring, but depth is depth.

Graph of the Day: Seattle's Revamped Outfield

Dan Turkenkopf — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:00:13 -0000

To many analysts, the Mariners overhaul of their outfield was one of the biggest moves of the off-season.

The team replaced Raul Ibañez and a mishmash of Wladimir Balentien, Jeremy Reed, and Brad Wilkerson with Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez, in the hopes of improving their ability to prevent runs.

Let's compare 2008's OF to the planned arrangement for 2009.

As before, all data taken from David Pinto's tremendous Defensive Charts based on Probabalistic Model of Range ratings.

2008's graph included all players who played over 100 innings at the given position.

Basically, Ibañez was horrendous in left, and while the right fielders graded out at slightly above average, there was at least one major hole where they were over 5 outs worse than average (largely the result of Ichiro and Balentien).

How does the new outfield alignment stack up?

Keep in mind that the sample size for Gutierrez is fairly small in center field because of Grady Sizemore. The projections and the scouting reports suggest he will be far better than this.

Still, simply replacing Ibañez with Chavez should result in at least one win, and potentially as many as three wins, defensively. Pushing out Balentien, Reed and Wilkerson is just gravy.

It will be interesting to see if the fielders can meet the extremely high expectations - and how much of a difference it makes to the Mariners' record.

The 2009 Washington Nationals, The Federal Baseball.com W.A.R. Effort And Darren Aronofsky's "Pi"...

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 16:54:50 -0000

(ed. note - Join Today's Game Thread HERE.")

My mathematical education ends with Algebra II some 15 years ago or more (I just can't add the years :(...but my education ends after Algebra II in high school, and after the 200 or so times I've watched Darren Aronofsky's film, "Pi"...(ed. note "Have you ever heard of gematria? It's defined by dictionary.com as:

"...a cabbalistic system of interpretation of the Scriptures by substituting for a particular word another word whose letters give the same numerical sum."

...or as the character "Lenny Meyer" explains by example to mathematician "Maximillian Cohen" in Mr. Aronofsky's film:

"Each letter's a number. Like the Hebrew A, Alef is 1. B, Bet is 2. You understand? But look at this. The numbers are inter-related. Like take the Hebrew word for father, 'Ab' - Alef Bet... 1, 2 equals 3. Alright? Hebrew word for mother, 'em' - Alef Mem... 1, 40 equals 41. Sum of 3 and 41... 44. Alright? Now, Hebrew word for child, alright, mother... father... child, 'Yeled' - that's 10, 30, and 4... 44.)

Fascinating...but I bring up my fascination with numbers that I understand about as much as I understood the end of Mr. Aronofsky's film, because I've started to believe in the statistical side of things, when it comes to baseball at least, and oddly enough, it started during the last presidential election, when I became familiar with the work Nate Silver was doing at fivethirtyeight.com, and then remembered when I heard Mr. Silver talking baseball with Keith Olbermann one night that he was the same writer whose work I'd been trying to understand over at Baseball Prospectus.com for some time...

Knowing that I'd spend fruitless hours trying to interpret the statistics Mr. Silver and others were producing, I enlisted the help this winter of the estimable Doghouse, who had frequently contributed a series of posts he called "Tuesday Nats Stats", which I'd always enjoyed, and which spoke in this (to me) mystical language...and Doghouse has since fearlessly led you, the Federal Baseball.com reader through the Federal Baseball.com W.A.R. effort with the help of tools provided by Sky Kalkman at the SBN's site with "Statistics Gone Mad", Beyond The Box Score, and with the season almost upon us, I thought we should take one more look at what they and others have done, because I think they've determined pretty much what to expect from the Washington Nationals in the 2009 season...

The Federal Baseball.com W.A.R. Effort: By Doghouse...

Federal Baseball.com Goes To W.A.R.

Pitching For W.A.R.

W.A.R. And Remembrance: The 2008 Nats

Small W.A.R.s: Baserunning and Fielding

W.A.G. the Dog: Dunn Goes To W.A.R.

In AD 2009 W.A.R. was beginning.

Grouchy former Rangers leaving camps

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:47:35 -0000

Let's see...

Former Ranger outfielder Brad Wilkerson left the BoSox camp yesterday, after finding out he wouldn't make the team, in order "to ponder his next move."

Former Ranger outfielder Gary Matthews, Jr., left camp yesterday after a closed-door meeting with his manager and g.m. which presumably included the news that he wouldn't be a starter.

And former Ranger minor league infielder David Newhan was released yesterday, and took some parting shots as he headed out the door:

Asked if he was surprised by the release, Newhan said, "Not really."

"The only way Coop's really communicated is through you guys [reporters]. I'm not blind. It's just unfortunate ... they talked about having a shortstop the whole time. I wish I had gotten a chance to at least screw that up. I never really got that opportunity."

Newhan originally thought he would get a look at shortstop, until he read an article on MLB.com that quoted Cooper saying Newhan was seventh in the pecking order of potential shortstops. Cooper also indicated in that article that Newhan likely would not see playing time at short this spring.

"That's kind of the way they communicated that," Newhan said. They made it clear I was not a fit here, and the guys they have in Triple-A are going to have to play."

In the words of Marcellus Wallace, this profession is filled to the brim with unrealistic (expletive deleted).

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:51:36 -0000

Some things to read while making a parking space.

Ryan Braun could return to action in the major league portion of Brewer camp within the next day or two. Yesterday, he took Brian Fuentes deep in a minor league game with the Angels. Craig Counsell also went 3-for-4 in that game and should rejoin the team soon.

Trevor Hoffman played catch yesterday and is showing signs of improvement, but will still almost certainly start the season on the DL. Carlos Villanueva will be called upon to close until Hoffman is ready. The Brewers will also have an extra arm in the bullpen on Opening Day, as Dave Bush will get his work in as he makes final preparations for his start in the fifth game of the season.

On the field yesterday, Mark DiFelice pitched the first three innings of a 1-0 victory over the Giants and won a spot in the bullpen to start the season.

Mitch Stetter, who also pitched a scoreless inning yesterday, talked with Tom H. about how much he learned working with Brian Shouse, and his preparations for the 2009 season.

Alcides Escobar was also profiled over the weekend. He's likely headed back to the minors, and could be sent down as soon as today or tomorrow.

It could always be worse, though: Adam McCalvy is reporting that Omar Aguilar has joined the crowd at Obliqueapullooza and Alexandre Periard may require shoulder surgery.

On rankings/projections/predictions:

Mike Fahmie has the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing fifth in the Central. Crappy Brewer prediction aside, I can't imagine a world where four NL Central teams that aren't the Brewers win more than 78 games this season.
The Giants Baseball Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
The Toronto Star has the Brewers 14th in their power rankings.
The Daily Hick predicts the Brewers will win 72 games and finish fourth.
MLB FanHouse has...well, I guess this is a preview...right?
Sports Fan Goods expects the Brewers to "struggle mightily and finish towards the bottom of the NL Central."
Intellectual Thicket's Baseball Mogul projections have the Brewers winning 78 games and finishing tied for fourth in the Central.

Still looking for a summer job? The Brewers are hiring for a Community Relations Internship and a Stadium Operations Internship.

In other camps:

A's: Added two catchers over the weekend, trading for Blue Jays minor leaguer Curtis Thigpen and signing Eric Munson. Also, Justin Duchsherer will have elbow surgery but no one seems sure what doctors will find while they're in there.
D-Backs: He was healthy enough to pitch yesterday and will pitch once more before Opening Day, but the team is expected to hide Max Scherzer on the DL until they need a fifth starter.
Giants: Acquired C Ronny Paulino from the Phillies for lefty Jack Taschner, then traded him to the Marlins for catcher Hector Correa.
Mariners: Brandon Morrow is expected to be the team's long term closer, so Tyler Walker was released. They also acquired utilityman Chris Burke from the Padres for cash.
Mets: Released Ron Villone.
Phillies: Released Marcus Giles.
Rangers: Claimed Joe Koshansky off waivers from the Rockies.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson has left the team.
Tigers: Will place Dontrelle Willis on the DL to start the season with an anxiety disorder.
Twins: Worked out a deal with the Yankees to keep Rule 5 pick Jason Jones.

So yesterday both the Brewers and Giants held back their respective starting pitchers, Yovani Gallardo and Randy Johnson, an act of gamesmanship to prevent either pitcher from showing too much to their first regular season opponent. This move worked out relatively well for the Brewers yesterday but is it worth the effort? I'll go ahead and say no.

Holding back young talent to keep their arbitration clock from starting is always a bad decision, but it's even worse when you're trying to contend. The Braves, potential frontrunners in the NL East, may start center fielder Jordan Schafer in AAA, even though he's winning the competition for the starting job.

How much do April games matter, anyway? Baseball Analysts unveils Championship Leverage Index to answer that question and many others.

How much difference does it make when a pitcher's velocity goes up and down? Tangotiger says a 2.5 mph increase in velocity is good for a drop of about .25 in ERA. That's pretty significant.

A lot of factors have to be considered when designing a new stadium, but apparently the Yankees missed one. YES Network and ESPN are reportedly going to request changes to the ballpark, which is not conducive to TV cameras.

Oh, and sometimes you need to be more careful while pouring out a beer.

Drink up.

Brad Wilkerson out as a Sox? Bailey, Carter are left

Randy Booth — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 16:28:54 -0000

According to Extra Bases, it looks like outfielder/first baseman Brad Wilkerson will not be making the Sox's Opening Day roster:

The Red Sox have not made a formal announcement yet, but Red Sox manager Terry Francona acknowledged this morning that Brad Wilkerson has at least temporarily left the club to assess his options, suggesting that he will not [be] part of the Red Sox' plans when the club breaks camp.

That leaves two men for what seems to be the one remaining spot on the positional roster: Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter.

This will make both Bailey and Carter quite happy. Bailey and Carter have both been mashing the ball this spring trying to earn the last spot on the bench vacated by an injured Mark Kotsay.

So who gets it? Since it's not going to be an issue of who's hitting well this spring (both are hitting over .350 into this game, but Carter does have five home runs compared to Bailey's one) it might come down to the roster spot. Carter, but not Bailey, is on the 40-man roster. Carter does only have one option remaining, though, which could be sticky make a situation sticky later in the season.

Opening a spot on the 40-man roster wouldn't be that difficult for Terry Francona. Miguel Gonzalez, a rule-V draft pick, will probably be an odd man out anyway come April 6. Also players like Jonathan Van Every or Devern Hansack could lose their spot.

So here's the poll, America: who should win the backup job come Opening Day -- Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey?

Poll

Who should make the team?

Chris Carter

599 votes

Jeff Bailey

118 votes

717 votes | Poll has closed