SB Nation - Chris Capuano

Making Your '00 Face: #1 Starter

KLSnow — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:00:27 -0000

With the '00's almost behind us, it's time to take a look back and work together to make a BCB All Decade team for the '00s. Each day, we'll tackle a new position, and we'll have our 25 man roster complete sometime around the 1st of the year.

The concept here is pretty simple. Each day, I'll give you a list of candidates: For position players, it's the full list of players who appeared in at least 100 games at the position during the '00s. Here are the players we've selected so far:

First Base: Prince Fielder
Second Base: Rickie Weeks
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
Third Base: Bill Hall
Corner Outfield: Ryan Braun
Center Field: Mike Cameron
Corner Outfield: Geoff Jenkins
Catcher: Damian Miller
Bench IF: Craig Counsell
Bench C: Mike Rivera

Now, it's time to change gears a bit. Today we're opening the voting for the ace of the staff. Eleven pitchers started at least 50 games for the Brewers between 2000-2009. I've nominated all of them, plus one more. Follow the jump for their numbers, then place your vote below.

Ben Sheets

Seasons as a Brewer: 8, 2001-2008
Traditional numbers: 221 GS, 86-83, 3.72 ERA, 1428 IP, 1206 K, 313 BB
Advanced numbers: 3.56 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 1.97 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 23.8

Dave Bush

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2006-2009
Traditional numbers: 153 GS, 38-40, 4.86 ERA, 695.2 IP, 498 K, 167 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.38 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 3.2

Chris Capuano

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2004-2007
Traditional numbers: 116 GS, 40-44, 4.39 ERA, 678.2 IP, 562 K, 229 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.62 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 7.4

Doug Davis

Seasons as a Brewer: 4, 2003-2006
Traditional numbers: 111 GS, 37-36, 3.92 ERA, 685.2 IP, 568 K, 295 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.10 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 11.3

Jeff Suppan

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2007-2009
Traditional numbers: 95 GS, 29-34, 4.93 ERA, 546 IP, 284 K, 209 BB
Advanced numbers: 5.05 FIP, 1.573 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 0

Jamey Wright

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2000-2002
Traditional numbers: 77 GS, 23-34, 4.73 ERA, 473.2 IP, 294 K, 249 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.99 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 2

Jimmy Haynes

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2000-2001
Traditional numbers: 62 GS, 20-30, 5.10 ERA, 372 IP, 200 K, 178 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.99 FIP, 1.58 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 0.5

Manny Parra

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2007-2009
Traditional numbers: 58 GS, 21-20, 5.17 ERA, 332.1 IP, 289 K, 164 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.40 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: -2.1

Glendon Rusch

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2002-2003
Traditional numbers: 53 GS, 11-28, 5.34 ERA, 334 IP, 233 K, 121 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.49 FIP, 1.554 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: -0.8

Victor Santos

Seasons as a Brewer: 2, 2004-2005
Traditional numbers: 52 GS, 15-25, 4.78 ERA, 295.2 IP, 204 K, 117 BB
Advanced numbers: 4.68 FIP, 1.49 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 0.3

Yovani Gallardo

Seasons as a Brewer: 3, 2007-2009
Traditional numbers: 51 GS, 22-17, 3.57 ERA, 320 IP, 325 K, 139 BB
Advanced numbers: 3.77 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 5.7

CC Sabathia

Seasons as a Brewer: 1, 2008
Traditional numbers: 17 GS, 11-2, 1.65 ERA, 130.2 IP, 128 K, 25 BB
Advanced numbers: 2.41 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9
WAR as a Brewer: 4.8

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

Beyond the Hot Stove: Opening Edition

SFiercex4 — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:52:20 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

In this April 30, 2009 photo, Center fielder Andruw Jones fields a fly out for the Texas Rangers during a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in Arlington, Texas. If Jones can prove he can still do this, Jones' new emplyer, the Chicago White Sox, should be fairly happy with their investment.. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Browse more photos »

The Hot Stove officially started two Fridays ago with the start of free agency, but here at Beyond the Box Score we have already covered quite a few moves prior to that (check out this, this, and this if you missed them).

Still, we have only so many people, and there are only so many things to say about some moves, so I figured I'd conglomerate a few of these into one big recap each week called Beyond the Hot Stove. Here I'll cover some of the smaller moves of the week that was in the Hot Stove. Since this is the first one, we'll cover moves starting from Friday, November 20th, the start of the free agent period. Links all courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.

- The first Hot Stove happening was Omar Vizquel's one-year deal with the Chicago White Sox. Vizquel has never been much with the bat, but my guess is that is not why he was brought to the South Side. Even in limited playing time the last few seasons, Vizquel has shown a decent glove, putting up around 30 runs above average the last three seasons at shortstop according to UZR. Granted, most of that happened in 2007, but it would seem as if Vizquel's golden glove has not yet fallen off with advanced age.

As for the White Sox? They look like they will be shuffling the infield once again with the departure of incumbent second baseman Chris Getz. Vizquel could likely work as a serviceable part-time player at shortstop and third base (he played a little third with the Texas Rangers last year), but I highly doubt they'll stick with him for more than the playing time he saw last year.

- The Milwaukee Brewers signed Chris Capuano and continue to search for more starting pitching after throwing the majors' worst rotation last season. Capuano is a Brewers product, but has not pitched in the majors for two seasons since undergoing a second Tommy John surgery and rehabbing. Capuano was a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy before the injuries set in, so he has a shot at being decent if he gets a chance this season.

- Speaking of injury issues, the Oakland A's signed Dallas McPherson to a minor league deal. McPherson has massive home run power and struggles with mostly everything else, particularly strikeouts and staying on the field. He might get some time at third base as filler until Brett Wallace or someone else in the A's organization steps in, or he may linger in the minors once again.

- The Toronto Blue Jays made two interesting moves to shore up their infield, resigning John McDonald and signing Alex Gonzalez. The McDonald move is a head-scratcher, as McDonald has no bat (career wOBA .264, Bill James projected .254 for 2010) and will be playing the role of defensive backup for $1.5M a year. He does seem to be a solid defender, both at shortstop and at second base, and the Jays do have an awful third baseman in Edwin Encarnacion, so the thought may be to replace Encarnacion with the more sure-handed McDonald in the late innings. Is that worth 0.3 WAR and $1.5M?

As for Gonzalez, he is just one season removed from a 2.5 WAR campaign in 2008. However, that came on a career high .340 wOBA that he has never come close to prior to or since that season, so don't count on that happening again. Gonzalez has always been a solid shortstop (career UZR/150 of +7), and a combination of him and Aaron Hill up the middle may vacuum a few more batted balls for Toronto's pitchers. Gonzalez will give most of that value back with his awful bat, however. Bill James has him projected at a .296 wOBA, and if Gonzalez starts all season, he would have to be a +10 glove to approach being an average player. Then again, he's being paid $2.75M, so no one's expecting average production from him.

- By far the most intriguing move to me was the White Sox signing of Andruw Jones to a one year, $500K deal. Jones had a comeback year after a hellish 2008, batting .214/.323/.459 in 331 PA, good for a .338 wOBA and 1.5 park-adjusted batting runs above average. I don't think I need to show the 2008 numbers to tell you that this was a massive improvement over '08. He did all this with one of the lowest BABIP's in baseball (BABIP of .220). For a player who had such trouble with contact (72% contact rate) and swung so much out of the zone (24.0% out-of-zone swing rate), his walk rate was surprising (12.7% UIBB%) but typical of the old Jones from his Atlanta years. He also posted a promising .246 ISO.

Bill James projects a similar wOBA for 2010 of .335, and Jones will be moving into another hitter's haven in U.S. Cellular Field. Jones only played 145 innings in the outfield in 2009, but he is only two seasons removed from a typical Jones-esque season of 21 runs above average in center field in 2007. Jones has not played center field regularly since 2007, and given his physique it may be wise to keep him in the corners. However, it seems plausible that Jones can still contribute positively in the outfield for the White Sox, which is exactly what the Sox need. If he can play a decent corner outfield (on the order of +2 to +5 runs over a full season) and be an average hitter like he was last season, he would be worth a lot more than what the White Sox would be paying him, even after his incentives bump him up to $1M. A good deal for both player and team involved.

Tuesday's Quick and Late Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:31:13 -0000

Some things to read while the Muppets make everything better (h/t Daily Drink).

In the interest of getting it done as early as possible, today's Mug is bullet pointed again:

Prince Fielder finished fourth in the NL MVP balloting, appearing on all 32 ballots and getting five second place votes (FanShot). Ryan Braun also appeared on 16 ballots en route to an 11th place finish, but was ranked no higher than fifth on any of them. The link above has the full voting. Hopefully we'll soon find out which three voters had Prince Fielder tenth on their ballot, and who cast votes for Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hawpe and Shane Victorino.
John Halama is a Brewer, having signed a minor league deal yesterday. Halama will turn 38 before opening day, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, and would be pitching for his eighth major league team if he makes the Brewers. With that said, Adam McCalvy blamed his 2006 departure from the Orioles on family issues, so perhaps he's ready to bounce back.
Speaking of pitchers who could bounce back, Chris Capuano will be back for another season on a minor league deal. Capuano made a few short appearances down the stretch for the Brewer rookie league affiliates, and if his rehab continues to progress he could be ready to pitch in the major leagues by spring training.
Project Prospect ranked baseball's top 15 shortstop prospects, and Alcides Escobar is #1, ahead of recent AFL standout Starlin Castro. TheJay had a post earlier today on players who do not have rookie eligibility next season, but Escobar is not one of them...and he's probably an early candidate for Rookie of the Year.
Al has a look at ten free agents that could become Brewers. Aside from the top two, there's no one else on that list I've even heard mentioned in connection with the Crew.
As for transactions, the Braves signed former Royals minor league pitcher Juan Abreu to a major league deal.
For whatever it's worth, MLB Daily Dish thinks Ben Sheets will end up as a Mariner this offseason.
It's no secret that the Braves would like to deal Derek Lowe this offseason. The Ghost of Moonlight Graham has a look at the market for his services, and thinks the Brewers made the right decision by not trading Corey Hart for him.
If you'd like something to overanalyze today, here's a candidate: Recent Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman has decided to switch agents, dumping the agency that helped get him out of Cuba, and Jon Heyman says at least one exec sees the move as a potential character issue. Obviously, the agency lost some money on the deal, but I'm having a hard time getting worked up over it.
Something else to think about this afternoon, in Sporcle form: How many of Kenny Lofton's teams can you name?
Friend of the site Stephen C. Smith of SpaceCoastBaseball.com has a post-mortem on the Florida Winter Baseball League, which lasted all of a few weeks, despite telling staff it had enough financial resources to last for multiple seasons (h/t Rattler Radio). Meanwhile, if you're one of the seven people who purchased tickets to a FWBL game and didn't get to use them, the Brevard County Manatees will allow you to use them next season.
On this day in 1969, Dave Bristol was hired to manage the Seattle Pilots. A few months later the team would move to Milwaukee and Bristol would become the first manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Happy birthday today to Cal Eldred, who turns 42, and Ben McDonald, who also turns 42.
On and it's probably a little late to help you today, but this cereal flow chart might make tomorrow morning a little easier. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Brewers re-sign Chris Capuano, target Carl Pavano

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:52:54 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

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The Brewers are starting to make moves to fortify their rotation, re-signing oft-injured 18-game winner (that's a mouthful) Chris Capuano to a minor league deal.

If healthy, Capuano is a very capable back-end of the rotation starter. Capuano last pitched in 2007, but owns a lifetime 4.39 ERA in five professional seasons.

The Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel is reporting that the Brewers have interest in free agent starter Carl Pavano.

"He's definitely on their radar," said Pavano's agent Tom O'Connell. Pavano went 14-12 with a 5.10 ERA in 33 starts this past season with the Indians and Twins.

Pavano would be a solid addition who could probably be had at a fairly reduced price, especially if the Brewers were willing to go for two years.

The Brewers' Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

TheJay — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:15:08 -0000

As noted in my FanPost of Sunday night, the deadline for filing major league and minor league reserve lists is fast approaching. Eligible players not added to the major league 40-man roster by November 20 can be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

What does it take to be eligible?

If 19 or older on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fourth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after four years in the minors).
If 18 or younger on the June 5th before he signed his first contract, a player is eligible for the fifth Rule 5 draft after signing (usually after five years in the minors).
Any player who is eligible for one Rule 5 draft is eligible for all subsequent Rule 5 drafts.

(see ESPN Transactions Primer , Baseball America Rule 5 Draft column, MLB Rules summaries)

You may recall some Brewers being added to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Omar Aguilar, Alexandre Periard, Mark Rogers, and Cody Scarpetta were the fantastic four. At the risk of undermining the above statements, Scarpetta actually became eligible for the draft through a little-known technicality: the Brewers voided his original contract because of an injury and later re-signed him, making him immediately eligible (link). That comes up probably once in a February blue moon.

I have attempted to make a comprehensive list of Brewers farmhands who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Obviously not all (or even most) of these players are realistic candidates to be selected. In addition, some of these guys may be minor league free agents. If you think I've made a mistake or missed someone, post a comment. Notable names are above the jump while you must click and scroll for the rest. Ages listed are for the 2010 season and levels listed are where the player spent the bulk of 2009:

Zach Braddock (22, LHP, A+/AA - one of the last draft-and-follow players, he did not sign until the spring of 2006 at the age of 18. This gives him one more year before becoming eligible.)
Lorenzo Cain (24, CF, AA)
Chris Cody (26, LHP, AA/AAA)
Nick Green (25, RHP, AA/AAA)
Taylor Green (23, 3B, AA - another draft-and-follow guy, brewerfan has him signing June 1, 2006. Since he did not turn 19 until November 2005, I think that puts him in the 18 and younger category and means he is not eligible until next offseason. Lorenzo Cain was in a similar situation last year.)
Dave Johnson (27, RHP, AAA)
Mike Jones (27, RHP, A+/AA/AAA - former #1 pick finally reached AAA, did not do well)
Brendan Katin (27, RF, AAA)
Mike Ramlow (24, LHP, Inj/A - yet another draft-and-follow, injured most of this season)
Amaury Rivas (24, RHP, A+)

The Brewers currently have 33 of 40 roster spots filled. I am not 100% sure of Green's exemption from the draft but the Brewers certainly have roster room if I'm wrong. We'll all find out together on Friday. Assuming Green does not need to be protected, I think only Lorenzo Cain and Amaury Rivas really need to be added to the roster. I don't think the other guys are tempting enough for any team to commit a 25-man roster spot in December. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current talent and/or upside just aren't there.

As promised, the rest of the Rule 5 eligible farmhands.

Erick Almonte (32 in 2010, 1B, spent 2009 in AAA)
Patrick Arlis (29, C, AAA)
Mike Burns (31, RHP, AAA/MLB)
Chuck Caufield (26, LF/RF, AA)
Anderson de la Rosa (25, C, A+)
Ryan Delaughter (23, RHP, R - converted outfielder threw 5 innings in Arizona rookie ball.)
Chris Errecart (25, 1B, A+)
Jim Henderson (27, RHP, A/A+ - Canadian added veteran presence to low-minors bullpens.)
Robert Hinton (25, RHP, AA)
Mark Holliman (26, RHP, AA)
JR Hopf (27, C, AA)
Shane Justis (27, 2B, AA - was selected in minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft.)
Brandon Kintzler (25, RHP, AA - not sure how it works for these indy-league guys. Not sure it matters.)
Brock Kjeldgaard (24, 1B, A - converted pitcher known for power, strikeouts.)
Joe Koshansky (28, 1B, AAA)
Rafael Lluberes (25, LHP, A+)
Martin Maldonado (23, C, A+)
Michael McClendon (25, RHP, AA)
Sean McCraw (24, C, A)
Johnny Raburn (31, 2B/SS, AA/AAA)
Tike Redman (33, OF, AAA - former Pirate spent about as much time in Nashville as Jon Knott.)
Jose Romero (24, LHP, R - injury-marred career, presumably.)
Ivan Rusova (23, RHP, R - who? The Giants somehow drafted this Cuban in the in 26th round in 2005.)
Juan Sandoval (29, RHP, AA)
Adam Stern (30, OF, AA - O Canada!)
David Welch (27, LHP, AA - the lone representative from Australia.)

The following players would have been Rule 5 eligible but are already minor league free agents according to Brewerfan. A few names from the above list (i.e., Redman) probably belong down here, too:

Drew Anderson (29, LF, AA - he actually spent September 2006 in the majors.)
Chris Capuano (31, LHP, Inj/R)
Carlos Corporan (26, C, AAA - hitting only 1.000 in major league play.)
Ruben Flores (26, RHP, A - acquired for Bill Hall.)
Lindsay Gulin (33, LHP, AAA)
Ryan Houston (30, RHP, AAA)
Jon Knott (31, RF, AAA - spent about two weeks in a Nashville uniform.)
Wes Littleton (27, RHP, AA/AAA - best known for "saving" a 27-run game with the Rangers.)
Kevin Melillo (28, 1B/3B, AA)
Sam Narron (28, LHP, AAA)
Freddy Parejo (25, RF, AA)
Josh Wahpepah (25, RHP, AA)
Chase Wright (27, RHP, AAA - outrighted off 40-man roster on August 26.)

That's a lot of links about a bunch of guys no one will remember a few weeks from now. :)

All Assumptions-Are-Dangerous Minor League Free Agent Team

Jeff — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:07:19 -0000

Dave at Fangraphs passed along a link to this year's crop of minor league free agents. A popular thing to do with this information is pick out a handful of guys that would make interesting and potentially worthwhile pick-ups. This is not that. This is a full team made up of guys who, years ago, were supposed to go on to do some big big things, only to end up on the fall 2009 list of mlFA's. Consider this just another reminder that you should never ever ever take a prospect's future for granted.*

C: JR House
1B: Ryan Shealy
2B: Josh Barfield
SS: Antonio Perez
3B: Dallas McPherson
LF: Wes Bankston
CF: Joe Borchard
RF: John-Ford Griffin
DH: Josh Phelps

BENCH-C: JD Closser (does Ben Davis still count?)
BENCH-INF: Eric Duncan
BENCH-OF: Dave Krynzel
BENCH-UTIL: Donnie Murphy

SP: Jerome Williams
SP: Greg Miller
SP: Kenny Baugh
SP: Humberto Sanchez
SP: Bobby Brownlie

RP: Jose Capellan
RP: Wes Littleton
RP: Casey Fossum
RP: John Van Benschoten
RP: Chad Orvella
RP: Clint Everts
RP: Andrew Brown

If there were a 26th spot, I'd give it to Dee Brown, but it would just be so damn easy to include him that I had to find an alternative. Also among the free agents are formerly established Major Leaguers like Chris Capuano and Chad Cordero, along with the astonishingly driven Jolbert Cabrera. Jolbert just wants to win. Come on, Yankees. Take the plunge. Win one for Jolbert.

If there were a 27th spot, I'd give it to Mark McGonigle, because, really? McGonigle?

* never take any player's future for granted

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:21:34 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Todd Coffey and Alcides Escobar celebrate after the Brewers' 9-5 win over the Cubs Wednesday. Escobar went 4-for-5 with three RBI in the game.

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Some things to read while placing a winning bet.

Dave Bush will take the mound in a few hours in the finale of a four game series at Wrigley, but once that's over the starting rotation is in a pretty thorough state of flux. Manny Parra's MRI came back inconclusive, so Chris Narveson will start tomorrow, and will presumably fill Parra's spot until he's ready to return. Mike Burns has also been recalled to provide an extra arm in the bullpen.

That arm, as it turns out, may be needed sooner than later. The Brewers are considering shutting down Yovani Gallardo, who has already thrown over 180 innings this season, about 160 more than he threw last season (FanShot). Gallardo doesn't seem to like the idea, but the team is discussing it with his agent, former MLB starter Bobby Witt. If Gallardo is shut down, either Burns or Josh Butler could be called upon to start Sunday.

Meanwhile, Braden Looper didn't pitch well but got enough run support to win anyway last night. After the game, he mentioned getting hit in the back by a line drive during BP on Tuesday, and said it started to tighten up around the third inning. Looper allowed another home run last night to bring his season total to 35, and now stands just one behind Wayne Franklin for the franchise record.

We got a brief glimpse into the job security of Brewer management yesterday, as Mark Attanasio said speculation that Doug Melvin could be fired was "ridiculous", and said Melvin will make the decision on whether or not to retain Ken Macha for 2010. If the team isn't winning, they're probably both gone around the All Star Break next season.

When discussing the Brewers' options with Prince Fielder, we tend to stick to two possibilities: trade now or lose him later. MLB Trade Rumors takes a look at the third possibility: a long term deal, and suggests that a deal wrapping up Fielder's age 26-32 seasons might not be a bad idea. Off the top of my head, I'd guesstimate that Fielder would want around $100-105 million to sign a six year deal at this point, assuming $10 million for 2010, $15 for 2011 and $18-20 for the four remaining years.

By the way, Fielder is featured in a pretty cool graphic as part of Beyond the Box Score's Graph of the Day.

Speaking of contracts, Jon Heyman talked to an unnamed major league GM and an unnamed agent, and they all expect Trevor Hoffman to get a one year deal worth between $7 and $8 million this offseason. I was more interested in their expectation for Mike Cameron, but he wasn't mentioned.

Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar will still be cheap next season and he showed Brewer fans a lot to be excited about last night. On top of picking up career highs in hits (4) and RBI (3), Escobar was also exceptional defensively. Here's a video highlight of the double play he turned in the eighth, if you missed it or just want to see it again.

Let's check in with the Baseball World Cup:

Nick Bucci started and pitched 4.1 shutout innings for Team Canada yesterday as they beat Mexico 4-2. Bucci has yet to allow a run in 9.1 innings of World Cup action. The Canadian team takes on Japan today in what could amount to an elimination game: The top four teams from their pool advance to the next round, and Canada, Japan and Mexico are all tied for fourth at 1-2.
2009 Huntsville Star David Welch is also having a pretty good tournament for the Australian team. He's struck out 17 batters in 12 innings of work and a poll on the World Cup home page lists him as a candidate for the tournament's most outstanding pitcher.
For a whole lot more World Cup stuff, you can check out The Daily Report.

Meanwhile, back in the States, the Brewers held steady at #20 in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Just one transaction note to pass along today:

White Sox: Released Bartolo Colon.

Beyond the Box Score is working on a pretty cool feature: DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation is designed to project a player's abilities into a single image that's accurate and easy to read and understand. They've still got some bugs to work out but it's a fascinating idea, and looking at pretty graphs beats actually working most days.

As I've mentioned previously, last night was Hal McCoy Night in Cincinnati, celebrating the long career of the Hall of Fame beat writer as he heads into retirement. Here's the video package the Reds prepared for the occasion, and Reds Internal Affairs has pictures of the festivities.

On this day in 1976, the Brewers celebrated Hank Aaron Day at County Stadium. Aaron, who went 0-for-5 in the game, would appear in five more games as a Brewer before retiring after the season.

Happy birthday today to Thad Bosley, who appeared in 42 games for the 1981 Brewers and turns 53 today.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:29:45 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Craig Counsell is clearly upset about not being mentioned in today's Mug.

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Some things to read while keeping your screen clean.

With the day off yesterday, both Anthony Witrado and Adam McCalvy took an opportunity to look ahead to the offseason, with Witrado even breaking out some statistical analysis in what might be his best story as a Brewer beat writer. In his story, McCalvy notes that the Brewers appear to be leaning towards starting Casey McGehee at third base next season, and will likely have to make a decision after the season regarding Ken Macha.

You can add Miller Park Drunk and Quevedo at the Buffet to the list of blogs calling for Macha's head. This is the first managerial season of Macha's career where he's not involved in a pennant race. It may also turn out to be his last managerial season.

Could Javier Vazquez become an option for the Brewers once again? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is speculating that the Braves may have too much money invested in pitching, and could look to move Vazquez this winter. MLB Daily Dish thinks Kenshin Kawakami may make more sense for the Crew.

In the minors:

Brewer farmhands Brett Lawrie (1-for-5 with a run scored), Adam Stern (2-for-4 with a walk and a run), Nick Bucci (five scoreless innings) and Jim Henderson (picked up the win, faced four batters, struck them all out) made their first appearances for Team Canada in their 9-1 win over South Korea in the first round of the Baseball World Cup yesterday. Stern and Lawrie batted #1 and 2 in the Canadian lineup.
Chris Capuano is expected to start tonight for Helena in their season finale. Cappy did not allow an earned run in his previous two Helena starts, each of which lasted two innings.

On Power Rankings:

The Brewers held steady at #22 at Beyond the Box Score.
Yahoo dropped the Brewers one spot to 19th.

Just one transaction note to pass along today:

Nationals: Claimed pitcher Jesse English off waivers from the Giants and designated catcher Luke Montz for assignment.

There's definitely something to be said for busting out of a slump emphatically. Matt Stairs, who had been 0-for-30 since the All Star break, came up in the ninth inning for the Phillies last night and hit a grand slam. And if you thought the occasional intentional walk to Jason Kendall was bad, here's something worse: On September 5th, nearly two months removed from his last hit, Stairs was intentionally walked by the Astros.

Raul Ibanez also hit his 29th and 30th home runs last night, giving the Phillies four hitters with at least 30. That seems great on the surface, but Walkoff Walk reports that none of the eleven previous teams to accomplish that feat won the World Series.

On this day in 1987, Teddy Higuera allowed a fifth inning home run to Tigers third baseman Tom Brookens, ending his franchise record 32-inning scoreless streak. The Brewers won anyway, 5-2. On this day in 1998, the Brewers won a wild one in Chicago, 13-11 over the Cubs. Sammy Sosa hit his 59th home run in that game: Of the 66 he hit that season, 12 were against the Brewers. No other team allowed more than six.

I wasn't able to find any Brewer birthdays again today, so you'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Ellis Burks, who turns 45.

It's a slow news day and a short Mug today, so you should use the extra time to go check out the new SBNation.com.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:32:43 -0000

by Jeff Roberson - AP

Dave Bush is pulled out of the game by Ken Macha as Jason Kendall stands by during the fourth inning Wednesday.

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Some things to read while overextending yourself.

The Brewers managed to get eleven baserunners in six innings off of Chris Carpenter last night, the second most he's allowed all season, but the pitching staff couldn't keep the Brewers in the game long enough to give the team an opportunity to win. There's no shame in being outpitched by the bionic arm of Chris Carpenter. Jeff Passan of Yahoo has a profile of the Cy Young candidate and his dozens of surgical scars.

Dave Bush couldn't beat Carpenter last night, so he plunked him instead. That HBP was the 50th of Bush's Brewer career, making him the new franchise leader. He also picked up his 51st later in the game. After the game, Bush brushed off the suggestion that he could have used more time in the minors to prepare for his return. With the Brewers now below a 1-in-1000 shot of making the playoffs, they've got plenty of time to give Bush a few more starts and see if he straightens himself out.

Mike Cameron might be back next season after all: He told reporters he would be willing to make a sacrifice to remain in Milwaukee for 2010. FanGraphs has Cameron at 3.9 WAR for the season, the third highest total on the team.

Corey Hart is ready for a rehab assignment, and will spend the weekend with Nashville to see if he's ready for a return to big league action. He won't exactly be bumping aside a whole lot of vaunted prospects in the outfield in AAA: Yesterday's Sounds outfield featured both Corey Patterson and recent independent leaguer Tike Redman, with Jon Knott, another recent indy leaguer, pinch hitting. The Sounds lost to Memphis for the second straight day, dropping a game and a half behind in the division.

The Brevard County Manatees are playoff bound, and after months of living in the dark, we finally have a site covering them. Space Coast Baseball will be doing live audio broadcasts from Manatees games over the weekend and in the playoffs. The site is still pretty new, but it's great to have resources like it out there.

J.J. Hardy has gone 1-for-4 each of the last two nights since returning to the major leagues. What do you expect the Brewers to get for him this offseason? The Blue Jay Hunter would like to see him in Toronto, and is willing to offer relievers Jeremy Accardo and Jason Frasor, who would do a lot to help solidify the Brewer bullpen for next season but would still leave a gap in the rotation.

Meanwhile, Chris Capuano pitched well in his first appearance in Helena, throwing two scoreless innings. His velocity is down a bit, but that's to be expected from someone who's undergone Tommy John surgery twice. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Cappy after the season: He probably owes something to the Brewers, who spent all season rehabbing him despite very faint hops he'd pitch in 2009, but he'll also be a free agent.

The Brewers are commissioning focus groups to discuss what fans liked and didn't like about this season's Brewer team and ballpark experience. I'm guessing "more winning," "lower concession prices" and "cheaper parking" will be the suggestions.

The Brewers are up two spots to #18 in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Around baseball:

A's: Claimed pitcher John Meloan off waivers from the Pirates.
Giants: Designated pitchers Ryan Sadowski and Jesse English for assignment.
Nationals: Acquired minor league reliever Victor Garate as the PTBNL in the Ronnie Belliard trade.

We've hit September, so it's time to start talking about mathematical eliminations. As Jon Heyman noted, the Nationals were eliminated from contention in the NL East last night. The Orioles have already been eliminated from the division race as well. A Nats loss or a Rockies win today would eliminate them from contention for the Wild Card as well.

As a rule, I typically skim over or skip most things written by athletes on the web: They rarely have anything interesting to say, and would get themselves in trouble if they did say something worth noting, for the most part. With that said, I'm glad I didn't skip over this post at Baseball Analysts by A's prospect and Harvard grad Shawn Haviland, discussing the statistics that minor league pitching coaches do and don't care about, and how fluctuation in BABIP can impact them.

Rob Neyer and Wezen-ball offer their insights on old time pitchers, and how hard they actually threw. Neyer's analysis seems about right to me: they threw hard enough to earn a living today, but wouldn't dominate as they did then.

Getaway days in San Diego are going to suck next season: The Padres are moving the start of weekday day games from 12:35 Pacific Time to 3:35, meaning East Coast and Central Time Zone teams probably won't get out of San Diego until 7 or later local time, then face a cross country flight where they'll lose several hours in the air.

Congratulations are due out to former Brewer farmhand Michael Brantley, who picked up his first major league hit last night.

On this day in 1901, the original Milwaukee Brewers (who would later become the St. Louis Browns and Baltimore Orioles) lost both ends of a doubleheader, 10-0 and 6-1, to the original Baltimore Orioles (who would later become the New York Yankees). Joe McGinnity pitched complete games in both games for the Orioles.

On this day in 1976, Mike Hegan hit for the cycle as the Brewers beat the Tigers, 11-2. On this day in 1991, Jim Gantner homered (ending a 1762 AB homerless streak) and the Brewers scored three runs in the ninth to beat the A's, 5-3.

Happy birthday today to two former Brewer bullpen arms: Chad Fox, who turns 39, and Eric Plunk, who turns 46.

Oh, and yesterday was probably the only time William Ernest Henley will come up in baseball conversation this season.

Drink up.

SB Nation - Chris Capuano

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Beyond the Hot Stove: Opening Edition

Tuesday's Quick and Late Mug

Brewers re-sign Chris Capuano, target Carl Pavano

The Brewers' Rule 5 Draft Eligible Players

All Assumptions-Are-Dangerous Minor League Free Agent Team

Thursday's Frosty Mug

Friday's Frosty Mug

Thursday's Frosty Mug