SB Nation - Horacio Ramirez

Stop Saying Omar Minaya Only Goes After Latino Players

James Kannengieser — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:30:14 -0000

The "Omar Minaya only pursues Latino players" topic has appeared again this offseason and the propagators of this myth are out in full force. Perhaps it was brought on by the signings of Alex Cora, Henry Blanco and Elmer Dessens. Maybe embarrassing rubbish like this post is promoting it. Even the mainstream media has been involved, as Bill Madden of the Daily News, ~~deserving~~ winner of this year's J.G. Taylor Spink Award for excellence in baseball journalism, wrote the following in a recent column, only to have the word "Latin" later removed:

Mets? Did somebody say the Mets? They won't spend the money for Holliday, Bay or Lackey and apparently, they're only interested in signing low-budget Latin players...

It's sad that this topic still needs to be addressed. Looking at the racial makeup of the Mets 40-man roster, as provided by a comment from Mark last week, the Mets had 15 Latinos out of 39 players, or 38%. About 29% of MLB players are Latino, meaning the Mets have four more Latin American players on their roster than average. Wow, stop the presses! How many Latinos are presently on the World Champion Yankees' roster? Answer: 19 out of 37, good for 51%. This is irrefutable evidence that Brian Cashman only goes after Latino players. Let the Yankee fan outrage begin. Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi signed Raul Ibanez, Carlos Silva and Adrian Beltre to free agent contracts in his short tenure, and traded for Miguel Olivo and Horacio Ramirez - he too must have only gone after Latinos!

There's more research to be done here I suppose, analyzing the racial breakdown of Mets trades, free agent contracts and the minor leagues under Omar. However, it's not worth mine or anyone's time indulging the uninformed masses who think a general manager would choose 1.5 WAR* Player A over 3.5 WAR Player B because Player A shares the same heritage.

* - If you like, substitute any metric or evaluator you think Omar and co. might use in lieu of WAR. The point remains the same.

Last winter, Omar's Mets were part of a blockbuster three team trade which included Mariners and Indians. In the biggest trade of his reign, at least in terms of player volume, he gave up four Latino players and received (gasp!) three white players in return. It had nothing to do with race. Omar wanted to upgrade the bullpen at seemingly any cost and he got his guy, J.J. Putz. Flawed evaluation of players? Almost certainly. Racial bias motivating a transaction? No, sorry. It's curious how transactions like this are conveniently ignored once the Omar racism watchdogs come out of their holes to spout absurdity. Usually, Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are brought up with nary a mention of Tim Redding, Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver or Gary Sheffield.

If you think Omar Minaya only goes after "certain players" it's because you want to believe the poorly performing GM of your favorite baseball team favors one race over another. It's because you want to believe he has some sort of scheme to decrease the number of non-Latinos in baseball, or to increase money paid out to Latinos in this country. Criticizing his moves in the strict baseball context is not enough for you - it has to become personal, an assault on Omar's character. As always, you're free to have these beliefs, but you're flat-out wrong.

Who Was Your Least Favorite Royal of 2009?

royalsreview — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:37:10 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals right fielder Jose Guillen can't catch the ball as Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) hits an inside-the-park home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, May 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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Despite Zack Greinke's greatness, nobody really liked the 2009 Royals. Dayton made a number of bizarre signings during the off-season, then responded with even stranger ones in-season.

So who was your least favorite Royal of 2009?

The Nominees:

Kyle Farnsworth: A brilliant symbol of both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman's weaknesses. Signed to a 2 year/$9 million dollar contract in the off-season that everyone hated. Was inexplicably named the setup-man/8th inning guy on Opening Day Eve by Hillman. Everyone thought this was insane. Farnsy gave up game-losing bomb the next day. Hey continued to fail until he was demoted, then he went on a long scoreless innings streak. Farnsworth ended up posting his lowest HR/9 numbers in ages, and still was below average.

Mike Jacobs: Jacobs didn't replicate his career year, another stroke of terrible luck to befall Dayton Moore. Gloriously managed a sub-.300 OBP. Could not handle the easiest position on the field. Frequently swung hard. Chewed gigantic amounts of tobacco while at the plate.

Jose Guillen: Ended the debate about his suckitude by achieving near perfect negative value. Hit .242/.314/.367 with absolutely horrific defense. Showed tremendous ability to turn fly ball outs into home runs for the other team. Has potential to unknowingly play a key role in the next game-fixing scandal. Hated by half the teams in the game. Contract is among worst in professional sports. Bonus status as the captain of Dayton's Awful Ex-Mariners Team.

Josh Anderson: Acquired by Dayton Moore in July for no apparent reason. Anderson had not hit before and he did not hit as a Royal, posting a .237/.268/.288. (Let's be fair, he has the ability to post a .280 OBP in full-time action.) Was a favorite late-game toy of Hillman. Does not appear to have blood.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Mysteriously picked up by Dayton Moore mid-season. Has no apparent strengths as a player. Has bizarre name. Costs much more than the minimum salary. Played key role in letting fans know that team is run by people who are ... ah, what's the point?

Willie Bloomquist: St. Willie turned in the greatest .265/.308/.355 season by a guy without a position in history. This was the Dayton Moore move that "worked" and .308 OBP, in Royalsville, is nothing to sneeze at.

Ryan Freel: Owning a .140/.275/.140 line with the Orioles & Cubs, Freel was acquired by Moore leading up to the trade deadline. Absolutely tore the cover off the ball as a Royal (.244/.306/.289) and told many fantastic stories about how he avoided the Vietnam War.

Jamey Wright: Could not sustain 0.00 ERA through first five minutes as a Royal, in more bad luck. Although quickly earning trusted status in Hillman's bullpen, posted a 4.90 ERA in next 57 games. Appeared in tie games constantly (13). Actually, he just appeared constantly.

Tony Pena Jr: Took epic failure of 2008 to a new level in 2009, posting an incredible .098/.132/.118 line. Played crucial role in delivering the Yuni-Bomb to Kansas City. Amazing shift to a pitching career, a move straight out of a message board if there ever was one, hurts his hate-ability however.

Sidney Ponson: Provided Royals with valuable depth in 2009: you can never have enough bad pitchers. Poison pill contract and fate led to him starting the 2009 Home Opener, the opening of the newly renovated K. Against the Yankees. Surprised fans with better than expected 7.36 ERA.

Horacio Ramirez: Ho-Ram's ex-Brave, ex-Mariner, ex-mildly surprising 2008 move that sorta worked out status, earned him another contract and $1.8 million from Dayton Moore. Sucked from the beginning and was gone by early June. He'll be back.

Reviewing Dayton Moore at the Deadline: 2008

royalsreview — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 21:30:08 -0000

As we build up to the 2009 Trade Deadline, we continue our review of the past three deadlines of the Dayton Moore era. Click here for 2006 & 2007.

On July 31, 2008 the Royals woke up in a position they'd long become familiar with. At 50-59 (thanks to a four game winning streak), the Royals were way out of it in the AL Central, despite thrilling fans with their pursuit of a 75-win season. For the second straight season, fans expected at least some action. Rumors were out there involving Grudz, Mahay, DeJesus, Teahen, and Greinke. Dutton penned a story about Mahay and Grudz's emotions. Other players, such as Miguel Olivo, at least seemed possible.

Instead, Moore's deadline activity can be summed up pretty quickly: he made no trades.

At least not at or around the deadline, that is. Moore made two minor in-season deals, and reserved his real shockers for the off-season, when he made the Crisp-Ramirez and Jacobs-Nunez deals. As for the actual in-season trades:

June 6, 2008: Angel Berroa traded to Dodgers for Juan Rivera. One of the happiest days in Royals history, Berroa was the last no-hit, no-field, overpaid shortstop the Royals would ever field. Juan Rivera, a middleinfielder with a career .248/.298/.311 line and currently playingin Burlington, is, I believe, the first sub-.300 OBP guy Dayton ever acquired. He must have been desperate!

August 9, 2008: Horacio Ramirez traded to White Sox for Paulo Orlando. Of course, as we know now, we wouldn't be seperated from Ho-Ram for too long. Orlando, a unique baseballer from Brazil, is a 23 year old OF with a career minor league line of .259/.303/.393. He is currently a Blue Rock.

Not trading Greinke was a good thing. Not trading DeJesus was probably a good thing. Not trading Grudzielanek was a calculated risk, and the Royals lost the gamble. Grudz was hitting .300/.346/.401 at the deadline, and rewarded the Royals for their loyalty by getting injured by Ross Gload on August 1st, then failing to sign with anybody before it was too late. It's about results, and the Royals generated a losing result with Grudz. Not trading Mahay, who had more value last season than he does now, was another mistake.

2008 was Moore's worst deadline as the GM of the Royals, and given the two trades he made over the winter, in addition to his minor free agent spending spree, the idea was clearly in his head that the Royals needed to make a play for 2009-10. It is extremely likely that this will go down as a huge mistake, and one that may further set back a franchise that does not need any additional barriers.

During the second half of this decade, nearly every National League team has been a buyer at the deadline, and the constant shopping of the New Boston Red Yankees, as well as aggressive deadlines by both LA teams, has created strong seller's markets. No, the Royals have not had a huge number of tradeable assets (in part because of Dayton's free agent mistakes), but when you look at Dayton Moore's three deadlines in total, you have to conclude that he has failed to take advantage of his one suppposed strength, his scouting abilities.

Yes, Dayton has made multiple non-deadline trades, including the very good Bannister-Burgos swap. However, one can only wonder what he might have been able to get in 2007 or 2008 if he'd been a more active player in a competitive market. Look at what the Indians have done the last two deadlines: Cleveland has a better Major League and Minor League talent stream than the Royals, yet Shapiro (who is far from perfect) has done much to position the Indians for another run beginning in 2011. The Royals, in 2011, Gil Meche's farewell tour, will most likely be rebuilding again.

Royals Transaction Round-Up: Gload, Peralta, Hudson No More

royalsreview — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:01:16 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

There was no final explosion. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

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It's been quite a forty-eight hours here in Royals land and we may not be done yet. Are the Royals clearly getting better? No, not really, but various short-term questions were finally answered.

Sidney Ponson named to starting rotation. I'm on record as saying Sidney Ponson isn't a good pitcher, and that the Royals' sudden infatuation with him was founded on a bad methodology and displayed lazy thinking. The next day NYRoyal weighed in and argued that Ponson isn't that bad relative to his fellow roster-filler brethern and that he gives the Royals depth. Most people seemed to agree with NYRoyal, and I was lambasted for being too negative, and for not being able to generate better options than Ponson. That I was wrong to assume he would make the rotation, that I was just letting my negativity color me. And hey, he's minor league depth, even though he's not. Anyway, for a few days I responded to everyone by snarkily arguing that we shouldn't limit Ponson to fifth starter consideration, that I see him as a #4. Well, now he is the #4 starter, whatever that means. Who knows what will happen? Actually, we do know. Well, Dayton Moore's made me miss Brett Tomko.
Horacio Ramirez named to starting rotation. The spin here is that the #5 guy, Ho-Ram, will only pitch an inning a month or something, because of all the off-days in April. Does it ever work out like that? What happens if Meche/Greinke has a long outing, which could happen, since they are actually good... we'll see what happens. The scary thing is, I think I like Ho-Ram as a starter better than Ponson at this point, but I mean, I'd hate to discount Ponson's nine immortal innings in the WBC. Since Ponson is a staff anchor (ok, that's going too far) and the best pitcher of the bunch, Hochevar, is being demoted for non-competition reasons, we're left with a competition between Ho-Ram and Brian Bannister, who now looks like nothing more than a flash in the pan. Horacio won that competition, and maybe rightfully so, although to find really happy Ho-Ram memories as a starter, you've got to go back further than you do with Banny. I wondered this Spring as to if Bannister would top Darrell May's career innings pitched mark of 660. That isn't a sure thing anymore. We can keep arguing about Ponson & Ho-Ram, but the larger story here is the future of Bannister, because if he's done, we're still going to be dealing with future Ponsons and Ho-Rams in great number for at least another few years.

Joel Peralta released, Luke Hudson announces retirement. Dayton Moore is the wrong GM to work under if you happen to be a pre-existing reliever. He's a transactions junkie in this area, both buying and selling. Everyone, I believe, who Dayton inherited in the bullpen, from the guys who sucked to those who didn't, are now gone. There are presumably better options in the 'pen now, at least according to management, and who are we to dismiss the abilities of Kyle Farnsworth? Peralta, nevertheless, is the definition of an expendable guy and in fact its amazing that he lasted this long. As for Hudson... I kept forgetting the guy was around, then someone would post a note about him, rehabbing somewhere off-stage or pitching in Iowa or someplace. He had no chance with the Royals, even if he was healthy(which of course he wasn't), not given the better talent on the team and the expertise of the staff to snag diamonds in the rough like Ho-Ram & Sidney. The larger thing here is that he's leaving the game altogether. He's 32 and starting over, so best of luck to him.
The Royals Trade Ross Gload to Florida for a PTBNL. The Royals did this to themselves, but at least they've now moved on. NYRoyal and I (you may have noticed a pattern) got into an exchange about Gload about a month back, as I was certain Ross would get 400 PAs (I think) with the Royals in 2009. Well, I was wrong. Wrong. They did business with the one team that could be excited about a free player who's terrible, but they did it. Rany's heard that the prospect coming back might actually be one, but there's no way of knowing now. (Fish Stripes on the trade.) So to wrap it all up, they solved the problem they made to the best of their abilities. I should have more to say about Gload leaving us, but nothing's bubbling up. I mean, I carried a sign saying "Gload will Explode" to the K, risking humiliation and frat-boy attention (which happened) due to the obvious alternate meaning of the phrase and the fact that I looked like a complete idiot or, at best, a weird guy. I'll have to post my bet losing post on this at some point. The odd thing is that bad defensive numbers keep popping up regarding Gload, which could mean that he's one of the absolute worst position players on earth, considering that he can't hit. He collected 747 plate appearances as a Royal.

So where are the Royals and where are they going? I don't know. It's been a strange week. Just a few days after I talked about the Royals maybe winning the division, the Royals made a win-later move in demoting Hochevar. The Royals jumped hard at the chance to add Ponson to the rotation, despite the fact that in a week a ton of guys were going to be available. Look, the reassuring thing is to say, "if Ponson is bad, he'll be gone" and in fact, this is what happened with the aforementioned Tomko. However, this also didn't happen with Gload or Tony Pena Jr., until way too late.

Sometimes... sometimes I just don't get it. The Royals bring in Ho-Ram the first time, I scream and moan, and he's used as a reliever, isn't bad and eventually gets traded. So pie on my face. Then the Royals bring Ho-Ram back, and we all let our guard down, because, well, he was good out of the 'pen. Then, we start creeping toward Ho-Ram starting... and it happened. It's like they've gone out of their way to make the wrong decision.

So, if we are anywhere, that's where we're at. Can you really trust this front office?

AL Central Community Projection Results

The Cheat — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 22:11:54 -0000

After weeding out the jokesters -- No, the Sox aren't going to win 162 this year. No, the Twins didn't win the division already with 117 wins. Yes, the Royals are going to win more than 20 games -- it's clear the South Side Sox community feels that the AL Central is a 3 team race, projecting to the Indians, Twins and White Sox to have 85-86 wins.

The Sox actually have the highest average at 86.55, but I suspect that's largely because of this poll's selection bias. If we remove 3-4 wins from the Sox total to compensate for the bias, it still leaves the Sox in the division title conversation but just behind the two favorites.

AL Central Community Projection

	Indians	Royals	Tigers	Twins	White Sox
Min	75	65	69	77	76
Max	95	89	90	98	99
AVG	86.27	76.24	78.90	85.13	86.55
Standard Deviation	4.00	4.47	4.49	3.94	4.16

Each team, in one paragraph

Indians -- The offense should be improved with addition of Mark Derosa, Shin-Soo Choo earning a starting role, the return of a health Victor Martinez, and maybe, just maybe, Travis Hafner proving his swift decline was only a fluke. They're considerably less frightening on mound, where Cliff Lee, who's having a brutal spring, is unlikely to repeat his '08 performance. Fausto Carmona might be able to pick up the slack bouncing back from a disappointing sophomore campaign. But the back end of the rotation looks much like the Sox Hope and a Prayer unit, running out the always-injured Carl Pavano, the mechanically-troubled Anthony Reyes as a reclamation project, and the effectively forgettable Scott Lewis, who has started only 8 games above AA. They have mid-90's win potential if their pitching comes together.

Royals -- How long will we continue to write that the Royals are still another year away? I might have projected them about even with the Sox had they not made a series of moves (Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Jacobs, Horacio Ramirez) that seemed to be about adding payroll more than wins. Offensively, we'll be waiting for the breakout of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Their rotation is pretty good with a front four of Gil Meche, Zach Greinke, Kyle Davies and Brian Bannister, but if they add Ramirez for the sake of having a lefty in they're giving away a few wins. If they had been expertly stewarded this off-season, I would say this was the year; but a few questionable decisions may leave them a few wins short of contention. In this division, that's all it takes.

Tigers -- Onerous contracts to Gary Sheffield and Dontrelle Willis combined with an economy that may be hitting Detroit harder than any other area of the country forced the Tigers to have their quietest off-season in recent memory. They strip-mined their farm system to build a roster that's now clearly older than the Sox. They're a decent offensive club, who, like the Sox have too many players on the wrong side of the aging curve. They'll hope that Jeremy Bonderman is finally healthy and worth his contract once again, and that either Nate Robinson or Dontrelle Willis can step up to prevent the rushing to the majors of Rick Porcello. They are a slow start away from attempting to sell off any salary not attached to Miguel Cabrera.

Twins -- Backs will tell the Twins story this season. Their only significant addition was Joe Crede until Memorial Day, or whenever his back decides to give out. And their best player, Joe Mauer, has already been troubled by lower back problems. If they get 260 games out of those two, they'll probably win the division, but that seems like a long shot right now. So they'll have to rely on their pitching, a solid rotation includes Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glenn Perkins, and Nick Blackburn, and a relatively young, batting-average-reliant offensive core. A good team, but not good enough to project as a clear division favorite.

White Sox -- The White Sox have a hole at CF so large NASA has begun to explore the area in USCF in search of anti-matter, while the back end of the rotation appears destined to be filled by two old pitchers coming off injuries. With a host of unknowns from CF, 2B, 3B, to the rotation and aging concerns, the Sox have too many questions to rank as the division favorite, or even among the favorites. They'll need a host of issues to fall their way to contend. But we've seen it happen before, as late as last season.

Division-By-Division 2009 Projected Starting Pitching Rankings By WAR: AL Central

devil_fingers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

This is the fourth in a series of six posts going through the MLB division-by-division to see which team has the best projected 2009 starting pitching by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to an average of the "Big Three" projection systems.. This post covers the rotations of a division that appears to be as "up for grabs " as any other in the majors: the AL Central. I actually had to do a bit of revising of my original big spreadsheet because the BP depth charts have undergone some revision since I originally started, which did effect some things. Surprises await...

Brandon "Ducky" Duckworth wants you to read on after the jump.

How Did I Come Up With These Numbers?

Some details on the methods used (if you don't care, you can jump straight to the "Team-By-Team")

FIP is used as the primary pitching stat.
The projected 2009 for each pitcher is generated by averagfing the projections of the three best publicly available projection systems: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA. The projected FIP for CHONE and ZiPS are from the player pages at FanGraphs. I generated the PECOTA FIP myself from the big spreadsheet.
Playing time/depth chart projections are based on Baseball Prospectus's depth charts (not the PECOTA weighted mean) in order to account for spot starters as well. These change every week; the playing times used are those that were up when I was writing the present post.
No team only starts 5 players all year long. However, I've also included a "top 5" figure for each team, based on the top 5 projected starter WARs for each team (not the top five projected IPs).
Value is based on a Win% generated using PythagenPat in relation to a average FIP-ERA of 4.40 and an RA of 4.76.
Run values are generated by are scaling FIP to RA rather than ERA for better accuracy and to properly value pitchers with respect to hitters.
An appropriate replacement level win percentage for starting pitchers is used, adjusted for relative league difficulty: .390 is replacement level for starters in the NL, and .370 for the AL.
Adjustments for ballparks use the five-year regressed park factors used at FanGraphs.
Adjustments are made for each pitcher's influence on his run environment through a dynamic run-to-win conversion for each individual pitcher.
New feature starting with the AL Central post: aggregate team starter win %. Yay! Note: that this is not directly convertible to team WAR, as it is a simple weighted average based on individual win% and IP. There will be discrepancies between team win% and team WAR, which is based on individual win % because this rough calculation occurs before individual impcat on run environment is taken into account for run-to-win conversion. WAR is the focus here. This feature is just for fun and a rough little guide to quality in relation to average. WAR is still the main focus of this series.
Neither the rates nor playing time projections are "mine." I have simply the projections, averaged them, and combined them with BP's playing time predictions. You can find the complete projected lines for each pitcher at the home sites for the systems (and FanGraphs, for CHONE and ZiPS). In other words, don't blame me if you lose money betting with this stuff...

Team-By-Team

Cleveland Indians
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	200	3.84	.559	37.9	3.8
Fausto Carmona	150	4.26	.511	21.1	2.1
Jeremy Sowers	125	4.75	.458	11.1	1.1
Anthony Reyes	110	4.83	.451	8.9	0.9
Aaron Laffey	100	4.43	.492	12.2	1.2
Carl Pavano	65	4.95	.439	4.5	0.4
David Huff	60	4.43	.492	7.3	0.7
Jake Westbrook	80	4.26	.510	11.2	1.1
Scott Lewis	50	4.41	.494	6.2	0.6
Total			.498		11.9
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Both CHONE and Baseball Prospectus currently have the Indians as the likely winners of the 2009 AL Central. This isn't that surprising, although (like many forecasts) it depends on a number of assumptions about the how successful the returns of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, etc. will be. In any case, it's pretty obvious here that if Cliff Lee completely reverts to his pre-2008 form or is out for an extended period of time, the divisional title aspirations for the Indians may be up in smoke, although, again, that's true for a lot of teams and their star players. Cleveland is attempting up for their lack of top-end quality with depth, as can be seen from the gap between the total projected WAR and the TOP 5. The .498 projected win percentage sees them as about average. As will be a theme throughout this post, there are a lot of variables here.... Insert Carl Pavano joke here.

Detroit Tigers
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Justin Verlander	195	4.10	.534	31.9	3.2
Jeremy Bonderman	150	4.15	.528	22.1	2.2
Armando Galaragga	165	4.85	.454	13.9	1.3
Edwin Jackson	160	4.78	.461	14.5	1.4
Zach Miner	80	4.29	.512	11.3	1.1
Nate Robertson	110	4.70	.469	10.9	1.1
Dontrelle Willis	70	5.18	.423	3.7	0.3
Rick Porcello	55	5.76	.374	0.2	0.0
Total			.481		10.7
Top 5					9.3

Comment: Blah blah blah joke about 1,000 run offense in 2008. The pitching (and defense) bombed last year. Adam Everett and Gerald Laird should help out on defense, but there are a lot of fingers crossed in Detroit, as those signings in addition to the Matt Joyce-for-Edwin Jackson trade portend a "win-now" season for an aging team; the pitchers can't blow it. Verlander is the only pitcher here who projects both as clearly above average in his rate stats and for a decent amount of innings. Bonderman looks above average when he's projected to pitch, but at this point, "disappointment" is probably the right word. Galaragga was a nice pickup, but he has to come back to earth eventually. Rick Porcello: replacement level picher. I miss Dontrelle Willis being good. Sorry for all of the negative comments -- in actuality, this group is better than some people think, and notice that their "Top 5" group is as good as Cleveland's.

Minnesota Twins
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Scott Baker	170	4.06	.529	27.0	2.7
Francisco Liriano	160	3.86	.553	29.3	3.0
Nick Blackburn	160	4.56	.473	16.5	1.6
Glen Perkins	150	5.24	.408	5.7	0.5
Kevin Slowey	170	3.96	.541	29.1	2.9
Philip Humber	110	5.49	.386	1.8	0.2
Kevin Mulvey	50	4.99	.431	3.1	0.3
Total			.486		11.2
Top 5					10.7

Comment: I suppose that I'm not the only one that thought these guys would project a little better. Again, this is a situation where playing time is very important. If Liriano and Baker can avoid injuries, this is probably the best rotation in the division. Slowey is also a stud-in-the-making from the Twins' Brad Radke factory.. Imagine if they could get Tampa Bay to trade Matt Garza for Delmon Young. Nah, any GM stupid enough to do that should be fired forthwith, right? In terms of sheer win%, Baker, Liriano, and Slowey look like the best 1-2-3 punch in the division. Seems like the "Twins way" should probably involve overpaying for some crappy vet to take innings away from one or more of the young guys in the grand tradition of the Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez signings. To be fair, it does like young Philip Humber (part of the Johan Santana trade "bonanza") will be contributing quite a bit of near-replacement level sweetness this season.

Chicago White Sox
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Mark Buerhle	200	4.38	.521	30.2	3.0
John Danks	175	4.21	.540	29.8	3.0
Gavin Floyd	180	5.08	.451	14.5	1.4
Clayton Richard	110	4.93	.464	10.4	1.0
Jose Contreras	130	4.54	.504	17.4	1.7
Bartolo Colon	80	4.79	.478	8.6	0.8
Jack Egbert	40	4.69	.489	4.7	0.5
Lance Broadway	40	5.89	.382	0.5	0.0
Aaron Poreda	40	5.08	.451	3.2	0.3
Total			.490		11.8
Top 5					9.3

Comment: If you ask me, Kenny Williams is one of the most entertaining GMs in baseball. No, I don't think he's great. I don't think he's terrible. I don't know what to think. Sometimes he makes moves that I think are stupid, and they work out well. Or he makes moves that make me think he's "getting it," and they bomb. It's fun to watch from a distance, although it must be brutally exhausting for White Sox fans. If you read my NL East post in this series, you'll see that Javier Vazquez is projected at about 2 wins better than anyone else on the White Sox currently. The ChiSox got young guys in return and are clearly trimming salary (Vazquez and Swisher wouldn't have been my choices, but see my comments about my judgments re: Williams' past moves above), so we'll have to wait and see how it works out in big picture, but, again, with Vazquez, this would easily be the best rotation in the division... Gavin Floyd, meet reality. Jose Contreras may be old, but White Sox fans would certainly rather see him out there than Bartolo Colon. John Danks turns 24 in April, and looks like a stud-in-the-making.

Kansas City Royals
Player	IP	FIP	Win%	RAR	WAR
Gil Meche	195	4.03	.542	33.6	3.4
Zack Greinke	190	3.92	.555	35.2	3.6
Brian Bannister	160	4.82	.457	13.9	1.3
Kyle Davies	140	4.93	.446	10.6	1.0
Luke Hochevar	140	4.81	.457	12.2	1.2
Horacio Ramirez	60	4.39	.501	7.9	0.8
Brandon Duckworth	30	4.84	.454	2.5	0.2
Sidney Ponson	60	5.00	.440	4.2	0.4
Total			.493		11.9
Top 5					10.5

Comment: I've had some harsh words for Royals GM Dayton Moore this offseason, and I'm not taking them back now. But I have to hand it to the man: he's put together a respectable rotation. True, like many of the Royals' best players, young ace Zack Greinke is a holdover from the previous administration (as are Alex Gordon, David DeJesus, Mike Aviles, and Billy Butler) , but Moore did manage to extend him. And although the Gil Meche contract now looks like a giant outlier among Moore's ...questionable... record with free agents, it's been a dandy. Greinke and Meche project as the best 1-2 punch in the division by both WAR and individual win%. Going just by WAR, they project as the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers in the division (behind Cliff Lee). Neither Bannister nor Davies looks like a world beater, but they can at least hold down the back of the rotation decently, and were acquired by trading older and expensive (Octavio Dotel for Davies) or young and overrated "live arms" (Ambriox Burgos for Bannister) for cheap young production. Um, no, I personally don't think Ho-Ram is a .501 starting pitcher. The projection systems probably don't differentiate between his time as a starter and as a reliever. But hey, I'm just following the numbers here. There's no homerism. There are "issues" like that all over this series, and if I start making half-baked subjective adjustments of my own in one place, I'll have to do it everywhere, and we end up with a bunch of junk. Before Carlos Rosa got sent back to Omaha to be a reliever, the Royals actually projected slightly better, but Sir Sidney isn't going to kill them too badly with only 60 innings (gulp), although the acquisition may trigger a crisis of epic proportions... P. S. Ducky rules.

Let's see the final results:

AL Central Projected SP WAR
Rank	Team	Total SP WAR	Top 5 WAR	Win%
1	Royals	11.9	10.5	.493
1	Indians	11.9	9.3	.498
3	White Sox	11.8	9.4	.490
4	Twins	11.2	10.7	.486
5	Tigers	10.7	9.3	.481
Total		57.5	49.2

Final Thoughts: That is very close, with all five teams are within 1.2 WAR. KC and Cleveland are tied on top at 11.9, with Chicago right behind at 11.8. No group of starters (including spot starters) projects as average (.500 or greater win%), although all are pretty close. While the top teams are worse than any other top divisional teams (at least so far), the bottom team is better than any other bottom team... Until the recent depth chart changes on both teams, Cleveland was further down the list, and KC was the clear #1. I was excited about that, but I had to give in to what the projections now say... On one hand, I could give it to Cleveland on the basis of the superior win%, but on the other, KC has the better "Top 5." So I have them tied, with KC listed first (in your face, Kyle!). Besides, as I noted above, the calculations for aggregate win% are only a "rough guide," anyway. And that's the mess with this whole division -- things are so close. Given the nature of projections in general, the potential for devastating pitcher injury, young player unpredictability, etc. it's not that far fetched to see any of the teams having the best starting WAR at the end of the season. For fans of the Indians, the Twins (my "gut" tells me this is really the best rotation in the division, but you know what the gut's brains are made of...), and the Tigers, it's pretty clear that their rotations definitely have question marks, but are each good enough to potentially help win the division. For Royals fans, there's a good young core there, and hopefully the position players can catch up. For White Sox fans... hey, you know Kenny better than I do, you tell me what to expect, I have no clue. I guess that's why Kenny Williams is the GM, and I'm the blog-talkin' guy...

Next up: NL West (later this week, probably Wednesday or Thursday)

Announcing the Sidney Ponson Innings Pitched Prediction Contest

royalsreview — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 22:45:06 -0000

This off-season just keeps getting better. Well-timed too. It's always good to turn in a clunker right when the Royals look to be closer to competition than they've been in years.

With Horacio Ramirez getting bombed again -- although it was just Spring Training, so he was probably just working on his horrible, extremely hittable pitches -- and the fact that Brian Bannister has really been no better, it's looking more and more likely, at least to this casual, mother's basement dwelling observer, that we will see Sir Sidney at some point this season.

And so, with the sincerest happiness and excitement, I would like to announce the 2009 Sidney Ponson Innings Pitched Prediction Contest!

The winner gets a free Royals Review T-Shirt. (These shirts have roughly the same effect on the opposite sex as a 30% pay raise. It's been tested. Honestly, you have no reason not to buy one. Light gray is the new black.)

Last week, Dayton Moore told Bob Dutton that had had recieved a strong recommendation from his scouts to sign Ponson:

“We saw him as the best available guy based on our scouts’ assessment,” general manager Dayton Moore said. “Our scouts saw him in the WBC and were very aggressive in their recommendation that we need to bring him in here so we could evaluate him ourselves.”

To be fair, perhaps they did see something that just screams, he's a brand new Sidney! (Although this happens how often with guys in their thirties?) And the statement fully includes the need for further observation and lots of appropriately vague GM-speak about having a competition and the rest. Dayton isn't going to say, "he's AAA insurance and a no-risk flier that will neverthless probably suck." I get that.

Still, he pitched nine innings in the WBC, spread out over two starts. He didn't even pitch deep into a game, which is a major issue in evaluating a starter's potential for effectiveness. Again, nine innings. In those nine innings, he struck out a Banny-esque four batters, also walked four, and allowed seven hits.

We know who Sidney Ponson is however. That's been well-established since the first Bush Administration. This is a guy who has not been good since the start of the Iraq War.

	FIP	ERA+
2003	3.67	117
2004	4.44	87
2005	4.75	69
2006	4.96	71
2007	6.03	63
2008	4.83	88

I suppose I could say something really witty like, this guy's declined just like the stock market, although it's really quite like that. he didn't fall off a cliff eighteen months ago. No, he's turned in a solid five year run of bad play. Ponson's post-2003 career has been a slow, yet extremely steady march further and further from the reaches of averageness. Since 2003, he's thrown 600.2 bad innings. I'm not sure if he'd struck out 30 players and allowed no hits in those glorious nine innings in the WBC if it would have warranted signing him.

Everyone wants to be the team that turns a guy like Sidney Ponson around. Why, I don't know. It must be intensely pleasurable to tell a reporter, "our people saw something, and we knew that he still had good baseball left." That must be the GM-speak equivalent of ripping off your shirt and running around pumping your chest. I don't know. Anyway, the Orioles were wrong when they brought him back. Then the Cardinals were wrong. The the Twins were wrong. Then the Rangers were wrong. Then the Yankees were wrong.

The Royals have put themselves in this situation in two ways. First, you can only get 5.50 ERA inninsg from Sidney if you bring him onto your team, which they've done, voluntarily. (Or at least, he's in the organization now.) Secondly, despite, again this is the annoying thing, despite doing so much to build a good staff, Dayton has gotten lazy or stupid on the details, and currently seems to be left with either Brian Bannister, Horacio Ramirez, or Sir Sidney as the fifth starter. Maybe one of the six guys named Wright and Bruce Chen is also in the mix. I don't know.

You don't get into this situation by accident. Bannister looked like a rotation guy until the Spring, and while I'm willing to say mostly his ST stats (like Ho-Ram's) don't really matter, its hard to be positive either. Eventually, as we've seen with similar pickups, you acquire Sidney Ponson because you actually think it is a good idea.

So let me know how many innings you think Sidney Ponson will throw for the Royals in 2009. The first to post each inning guess claims that total, and should there be a tie, I'll break it based on who posted first.

Better Know a White Sox Division Rival: Kansas City Royals

larry — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 12:00:12 -0000

This is the first in a series about AL Central rivals and the race to be the tallest midget.

Offseason Comings and Goings

KC has been roundly ridiculed for their moves this offseason. The trade for Mike Jacobs drew perhaps the most strident criticism but the signing of Kyle Farnsworth to, ahem, bolster the bullpen and giving guaranteed money to Horacio Ramirez and Willie Bloomquist to do, I don’t know, whatever also caused consternation amongst the Royals faithful. For those of you scoring at home, that’s about $11M pissed away on what is effectively replacement level talent across the board.

I would be remiss, though, if I just criticized all of Dayton Moore’s moves. While I understand the argument some advance about acquisitions like Coco Crisp and Juan Cruz (why is a team like the Royals making what are probably marginal upgrades?), on the other hand, after a look around the division, I don’t think there’s any team that can’t legitimately think that a few breaks their way could mean contention. The problem is that the moves I outlined in the first paragraph are incongruent with the moves I’m discussing in this one.

Mark Grudzielanek is probably the only departure worth mentioning. Bobby Jenks’ nemesis Joey Gathright is gone, too, but his production was so horrid that he should be. They sent reliever Ramon Ramirez to Boston to get his replacement.

Offense

A Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp CF, Mike Aviles SS, David DeJesus LF, Jose Guillen RF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Billy Butler DH, Alex Gordon 3B, Alberto Callaspo 2B, Miguel Olivo C.

Bench and Spare Parts: Mark Teahen (UT), Willie Bloomquist (UT), John Buck (C), Ross Gload (1B), Ryan Shealy (1B), Tony Pena Jr. (UT), Luis Hernandez (UT), Shane Costa (OF).

Doesn’t take a genius to see this isn’t that good of an offense. They lacked both OBP and SLG last year and not all that much has changed, especially on the OBP front. But there are some positives. People are probably sick of hearing about how Butler and Gordon are going to breakout. Well, Butler is still just 23 and Gordon is 25. They still have significant upside potential. Aviles and his ridiculous BABIP are going to come back to earth but he’s still a solid SS. Callaspo is a good defender, a legit .300 hitter and draws enough walks to make his lack of power quite acceptable; however, he's having a poor spring and Bloomquist may be winning the second base job. Guillen and Jacobs are going to be drags on production, especially on the OBP front. Teahen, for better or worse, is going to get significant playing time all around the diamond. The problem is that they've got a bunch of adequate to bad offensive players. Gordon and Butler have a chance to change that but even sizeable breakouts from both probably wouldn't be enough to get this offense to respectability.

Pitching

Rotation: Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister.

Bullpen and Spare Parts: Joakim Soria, Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble, Horacio Ramirez, Robinson Tejada, Brandon Duckworth, Carlos Rosa, John Bale, Bruce Chen, Doug Waechter, Joel Peralta.

The one-two punch of Meche and Greinke is about as good as any as you’ll find in the division – and some will argue is the best. After that, Hochevar and Davies are entering their age 25 season and may be primed for a breakout into solid mid-rotation types. Brian Bannister, while earning accolades from seamheads for his heady approach to pitching, really isn’t that good – which is why he needs to take a heady approach. Top to bottom, they’re a solid rotation with some significant upside potential. Just like with most non-Red Sox teams, things get shaky in the spot start area with guys like Ramirez and Duckworth being Masset-ish.

The bullpen has at the end of it one of the best closers in the game in Soria. Cruz is a superb set-up man as he is a strikeout artist while limiting the home run. Mahay and Bale are solid lefty options, though the timing of Bale's return from thyroid surgery is uncertain. Relief should be a strength for the Royals.

Farm

Most of the Royals’ farm talent is a few years away from the big leagues. However, there are a couple guys who could provide reinforcements during the season that make a difference.

Kila Ka’aihue: One of the reasons the Mike Jacobs acquisition was so puzzling was that the Royals have a bunch of guys who could play 1B as good or better. While Kila would have been a stretch to make the team out of Spring Training, he shouldn’t need much more time. He had a break-out season in 2008 and most believe it to be a legit jump to a new performance level. He provides plus power and plate discipline but, like many "1Bs", lacks a glove or much speed.

Daniel Cortes: Had a good year at AA and should start the year at, or move up quickly to, AAA. The 22 year old likely needs a full year at Omaha to continue to develop his repertoire – his low to mid 90s fastball and curve are both good, but his change requires more work –but, if there is a rotation need midseason, he may be a better option than the replacement level schlock that will be hanging around the KC bullpen and upper minors.

Outlook:

The shortest of the midgets but with growth potential.

If the Royals Were Nations: The Pitchers

royalsreview — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 03:26:13 -0000

Continuing our geographical examination of the Kansas City roster. (The position players can be found here.) Hopefully, the players themselves can use this analysis, especially if they ever become NFL football players, play in the Super Bowl, and get asked "What country would you be?" by a wisecracking journalist from Italy.

John Bale: He's mostly imaginary at this point (just like Arod's cousin, right...), or at least, a scenario in which he's useful is. Since the Royals acquired him -- a move I liked at the time -- he's been mostly hurt and ineffective/unlucky. He also sent himself to the DL for punching a wall, so he's an effective problem solver. All this makes him the Sealand of the roster: an imaginary "nation" off the coast of England, that's little more than an old military platform and some insane people in weird uniforms. So far Dayton Moore's brought in three guys from East Asia: Bale, Yabuta and manager Trey Hillman. Maybe he should just stick to the US South.

The John Bale of the world.

Brian Bannister: Is there an auto-text generator somewhere on my computer for Bannister? There should be. It's always the same thing: he's smart, he likes stats, he has average stuff, he's a Born Again Christian, his dad was also a ballplayer, JoePo likes him, etc. So what country is he? I've got Finland, which always ranks well on educational charts and has oodles of Scandanavian efficiency, which could be related to handling the numbers well. Finland's also the least blonde, least visited, most vulerable to Russia, and least good at soccer Scandinavian country. They even speak a weird language. So in sum, Bannister/Finland: a mix of good and bad, with a lot going for it, danegrously close to being too expensive at this point, on the precipice of failure, works best as an underdog.

Bruce Chen: Chen's been around forever, lost more battles than he's won, but every so often is sorta ok. He's even been completely off the map for long periods of time. Sounds like Poland.

Juan Cruz: One of the newest Royals, Cruz isn't exactly young or old. He's in the middle of his career, and while everyone seems to have always loved him, he's been on more than a few teams. As a reliever, Cruz's overall impact is going to be somewhat limited, but he's a nice feather in your cap, and a great place to be for a few innings. In all these ways, he's resembles the lovely island of Bermuda. Much like Bermuda, he's also set apart from the other islands of the Carribean (which he truly isn't a part of), much like Cruz isn't really part of Dayton Moore's off-season horribilis.

Kyle Davies: Davies is Georgia. Not Georgia the country, Georgia the state. Davies is just a big ole white boy with a good southern white boy name: Kyle. (There's even the bizarre, Old Testament name of Hiram thrown in for good measure.) If you exclude Florida, which is admittedly kinda a geographic exception, Georgia is the most populous state in the Old South, and Davies is the best former Brave brought in by Moore. Davies may not quite be ready for prime time yet, but you know if something happened, he'd be sure to beat the hell out of Brian Bannister.

Kyle Farnsworth: Yea, there are worse guys out there, just like there are probably a few places worse than the Central African Republic. Like, the Congo (both of them) and... and... well, the Sudan. Probably Chad too. So before we criticize the fact that the Royals are paying a premium for Farnsworth -- he's one of the highest paid non-closers in baseball -- just imagine how expensive it would be to visit the C.A.R. Sometimes, you gotta pay for the privilege. And if it works out? Well, you can strut around your block for years on the story.

It isn't fair if we only talk about the negatives of the Farnsworth signing.

Jimmy Gobble: Somehow lovable, in spite of being nearly entirely pointless at this point, Jimmy Gobble is the Bolivia of the pitching staff. Bolivia is Venezuela without the baseball and oil, Chile without the coastline, Argentina without the cafes, Brazil without Rio or the Amazon and Columbia without the beaches or drug money. Gobble can't start, can't get right-handers out, and wasn't used as a lefty-specialist by his manager last season. Which makes him sorta like the Bolivian Navy... a group of men in out-dated boats in a land-locked country. He's not even cheap anymore, and neither is Bolivia, thanks to their socialist leadership. Still, we love him. I mean, he's Gobble! He's like the last survivor of the 2003 team. In much the same way, Bolivia has an incredibly short guy called "Evo" running the country.

Zack Greinke: Poised to begin a reign of dominance, and in many ways already there, Greinke is like the USA, circa 1945. He's rebounded from some rough patches and a somewhat delayed breakout (hey, joining WWII in late 1941 was no problem at all... England was managing things fine there, it was all good) to world power status. Sure, not everyone quite knows it yet, and some still assign an out-dated dominance to bloated entities like France/CC Sabathia. But Greinke is right there, and still has room to grow. We're hitting the boundless optimism, not too decadent phase now folks, with 2011-12 the Kennedy years.

Luke Hochevar: So imagine you could travel anywhere in the world. You had top choice, and even some price controls in place. The airports won't be crowded, you'll have a nice seat on the plane, and whatever hotel room you want. You survey your options and go with... Argentina. Uh, ok. Sure, Buenas Aires is nice, and the tango is fun, and there's surely a lot of guys walking around with long hair who would probably be considered attractive. Still, that was your top choice? No South Pacific? No real Paris as opposed to "the Paris of South America"? Meh. I can only see it making sense if you wanted to do a hardcore Patagonia/wilderness/edge of the Earth thing, but we all know the Royals aren't into that. So back to Hochevar... Hochevar's rounded into a solid middle of the rotation pitcher, but it looks like that's all he'll ever be. Considering where the Royals selected him, it's hard to complain, yet hard to feel satisfied.

Ron Mahay: Sure, he's a journeyman reliever (seven teams in twelve years) that's currently well-paid and injured (remember when we all thought Moore = mad genius as a bullpen builder). But of that troubled lot, the journeyman middle relievers of the world, he's one of the best. He's even lacking the John Bale self-destruction gene, and has had a modicum of stability, serving all those years in Texas. Add it up, and he's the Montenegro of the staff: the quasi-stable, non-horrible journeyman, just as Montenegro is the rich, peaceful, beautiful jewel of the Balkans. Mahay earning $4 million last season is the equivalent of that hardcore poker tournament in Montenegro that was featured in Casino Royale, his years in Arlington, equalling Monty's time with Yugoslavia.

Gil Meche: He's not the fastest worker and he has a reputation for being inefficient. He's at once a little under-rated, yet also acknowledged, now, to be "solid". Gil Meche is the non-fun parts of Brazil of the Royals. Brazil dominates South America in basically every way, and shows up on a lot of world leaderboards for various things, yet is still kinda that weird country with the funky flag. It's about as powerful as you can be without deserving a spot on the UN Security Council in anyway. Is it even in the G8? All sounds like Meche really, right there as an asset, but not quite a force. Meche has non of Brazil's flair, he's got not an ounce of Rio in his game. Meche might finish his career with the highest ratio in history of money earned or WARP numbers posted in relation to jersey sales. No, he's a modernist office park in Brasilia, staffed with guys who take forever to do anything because they're planning their next weekend trip or watching soccer on TV or because they're surrounded by hot women.

Can you find Gil?

Joel Peralta: Peralta allowed the most homers per nine innings last season of any reliever in baseball, making him the Gaza Strip. As in, he's frequently bombed. zing!

Horacio Ramirez: Hmm... Farnsy is the C.A.R., Bale is a nonexistent micronation, so where does that love lovable old former Brave and pointless Royal retread Horacio Ramirez? Ho-Ram's a proven poor starter, but was actually decent last season, as a Royal at least, out of the 'pen. Of course, doing the same thing with Chicago in the same season, he was then awful again. And he doesn't make the league minimum... You know what? I'm gonna be nice with this one. Ho-Ram is Kyrgyzstan, a nearly entirely unknown nation in Central Asia. Honorable mention for Ho-Ram is Thailand. Can you guess why?

Joakim Soria: Probably the coolest Royals player since Bo Jackson, and easily one of the ten best relievers in baseball, and that's being conservative. Somehow, he's able to look like the guy from Malcolm in the Middle yet legitimately carry the nickname "The Mexicutioner". As a closer, he's not really a heavy lifter, and he isn't placed in a position where he can carry a team. What he can do is, well, finish the job. All in all, this makes him Great Britain in a James Bond Movie. Look, Britain can't win the Cold War for you, and really can't even defend Europe, but if you need to send in one man to execute a bad guy, sleep with three beautiful Romanian women, defuse multiple bombs, survive a poisoning, and climb up the side of a building over one weekend, somehow it just makes sense that a British guy is better suited to pull this off than someone from, oh I dunno, Georgia. Kyle Davies is gonna drink too much beer, punch the wrong person, and screw up the mission, even though you'd think he'd make a better fighter. Corollary: Mike MacDougal is Great Britain during the Spice Girls era.

Robinson Tejeda: I suppose if Ho-Ram is Kyrgyzstan (which actually looks cool as hell, oh well, let's keep it) then that would make Robinson Tejeda... what's left of the Aral Sea. I understand that this is not actually a nation.

Doug Waechter: Really, Waechter has got to be Florida. Have you ever heard of someone pitching for the Devil Rays (as they were at the time) for four straight seasons? He was a longtime Devil Ray! Do you know how many pitchers have passed through the Trop in this decade? And the most amazing part was that he was never even really good. Better still, after washing out in Tampa, he resurfaced with, that's right, the Marlins. So, let's honor this dedicated Florida man. Obviously, he's another great pickup by Moore, as he had an ERA+ in the 70s three out of four seasons (and all of the last three) then one good year in Florida, pitching in a swamp. I think his numbers will translate well to a neutral field in the stronger league!

Yasuhiko Yabuta: Every other team gets to bring in a guy from Japan who, for three months (aka his first time through the league) is completely baffling and unhittable. Not the Royals. Yabuta was, from the start, hittable. But hey, everything else from Japan has worked out: Bale's a team leader and inspirational dynamo and Hillman's the best manager in the game.Yabuta: a concept that has worked out for everyone else, but in this case went disastrously wrong. He's the Clipperton Island of the Royals. Every other tropical island in the world turned out to be a nice place to live, and many even turned into profitable little trade centers or sources of cheap labor making one product. Not Clipperton, which is now uninhabited. In the early twentieth century however, a guano company (make joke here) tried to establish a colony there. Problem was, the relied on ships from Mexico for supplies every few months, only the Mexican ships eventually stopped coming due to, you guessed it, internal strife. The settlement was founded in 1906, and by 1915, nearly everyone was dead. In the end, there was one male left, and fifteen women and children. You can probably figure what happened next: after a reign of terror, the man was finally killed. The last survivors were picked up in 1917. All this is a long way of saying, Yabuta!

What are the Royals Doing?

Charlie — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 22:29:42 -0000

The other day, in a conversation about why the Pirates would have to overpay for certain types of free agents, Vlad wrote:

[Kansas City] has a comparable amount of trouble in attracting FAs, and generally has to overpay for even second-tier talent. Just look at the [Jose] Guillen signing – should we be making moves like that one?

This is a good question. Recently, a number of fans have argued that the Pirates ought to drop a bunch of money on free agents so that the Pirates can contend sooner. Whenever I hear this argument, I think of the Royals.

Leaving out minor-league contracts and situations where the Royals picked up a guy who'd been cut and paid him the minimum, here are Dayton Moore's veteran acquisitions since the 2006-2007 offseason. I'm defining "veteran" as anyone older than 26 or so. Let me know if I left anyone out, because this was not an easy list to make.

November 2006: Acquired Jason LaRue and about $2 million of his contract from Cincinnati for $1. (Yes, seriously.)

December 2006: Signed John Bale to a two-year, $4 million deal.

December 2006: Signed Octavio Dotel to a two-year, $10 million deal.

December 2006: Traded Andrew Sisco to the White Sox for Ross Gload, who the Royals later re-signed to a two-year, $3.2 million deal.

December 2006: Signed David RIske to a one-year, $2.25 million deal.

December 2006: Signed Gil Meche to a five-year, $55 million deal.

November 2007: Signed Yasuhiko Yabuta to a two-year, $6 million deal.

December 2007: Signed Jose Guillen to a three-year, $36 million deal.

December 2007: Signed Ron Mahay to a two-year, $8 million deal.

December 2007: SIgned Miguel Olivo to a one-year, $2.05 million deal with a $2.7 million option for 2009, which was later exercised.

January 2008: Signed Brett Tomko to a one year, $3 million deal.

October 2008: Traded Leo Nunez to the Marlins for Mike Jacobs. Jacobs is eligible for arbitration.

November 2008: Traded Ramon Ramirez to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp. Crisp has one year and $5.75 million remaining on his contract, plus an $8 million option or $500,000 buyout for 2010.

December 2008: Signed Kyle Farnsworth to a two-year, $9.25 million contract.

December 2008: Signed Doug Waechter to a one-year, $640,000 deal.

December 2008: SIgned Horacio Ramirez to a one-year, $1.9 million option.

January 2009: Signed Willie Bloomquist to a two-year, $3.1 million deal.

My point is not that all these signings were unnecessary or bad. Meche in particular was a great signing; Riske was good. Bale and Mahay have been harmless. Dotel actually brought back Kyle Davies, who stands some theoretical chance of being useful. (I say "actually" because these sorts of free-agent-for-prospect trades are very rare.) It's also true that acquiring this many major league veterans made more sense for the Royals than it would for the Pirates, since Moore inherited a number of gaping holes and Neal Huntington didn't.

Speaking more broadly, though: is this what we want our team to look like? The Royals have acquired so many veterans it's exhausting to catalog them all. The reason they've had to acquire so many is that most of them have been terrible. LaRue? A bad joke. Gload? Olivo? Not good. Yabuta? A non-factor. Guillen? Horrible. Tomko? Yuck. And just wait until Royals fans get another look at Horacio Ramirez and a first look at Jacobs and Bloomquist.

As long as these guys aren't blocking anyone, I suppose that, on some level, you have to give them credit for trying, at least. (In the case of someone like Jacobs, who is blocking better players, well, forget it.)

However: I know fans generally aren't too sympathetic to arguments from the perspective of the team, and they shouldn't be, but look: in 2009, the Royals are going to pay north of $50 million for players on the list above. And what they'll probably get for their $50 million is 200 solid innings from Meche, maybe a few decent innings from Bale, Mahay and Farnsworth, some decent defense from Crisp, and tons and tons of replacement-level or sub-replacement-level performance. As a fan, you could say that the 500 godawful at-bats from Guillen are worth it because of how good Meche is, but you're not the one who has to spend the $50 million. If Huntington spent $50 million the way the Royals are about to spend $50 million this season, there would be serious questions about his judgment, probably many of them from the same fans who are now blasting him for not spending more.

Now, you might say that the Royals aren't a good example of what would happen if the Pirates dropped a bunch of money on free agents, because the Royals spent their money badly. To an extent, that's true, and the Royals really need to have their heads checked for the Ramirez, Bloomquist and Jacobs moves in particular.

But often, the Royals were just responding to the market. Even a mid-tier free agent like Jose Guillen will not come to Kansas City unless he is overpaid. The same goes for Meche, who hadn't done much of anything before signing with the Royals. A lot of the other guys the Royals signed just did what free agents signed to one-year and two-year deals tend to do, which is stink.

Personally, I'd rather wait until the Pirates develop the sort of core that would make Pittsburgh an attractive destination for a free agent. I'm not sure one Gil Meche is really worth the rest of the mess the Royals have made, and I can't blame the Pirates for failing to drop $50 million just for the equivalent of just one good player.