SB Nation - Derrick Turnbow

Mets Top Prospects: #24 Nick Carr

Sam Page — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 20:23:46 -0000

A reliever from the 41st round has made Mark a believer...I like him, too.

Nick Carr

Vitals

Born 4/19/87

Physical Stats: 6'1" 195 lbs.

Position: Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 41st round 2005, College of Southern Idaho

Current Team: St. Lucie Mets (Hi-A Florida State League)

Scouting Report

Carr is big bulky relief pitcher who relies on low-mid 90s heat to miss bats and consistently generate groundballs. Actually a few months younger than Eric Beaulac, Carr has also been moved to the bullpen this year. In many respects, he's similar to Beaulac, in that he works mostly off his fastball and uses a slider as his primary second pitch, and the knock on him is command troubles. However he's shorter and thicker around the middle than Beaulac, and when he's right generates more natural "run" on his fastball, though his slider lags behind a bit and his command has been a more problematic. He also features a hard changeup that flashes average and should be a fine third pitch for a relief prospect. His progress has been a bit on the slow side, but it's also been quite steady, and most of the last big hurdles for Carr to cross mechanical ones. Oddly enough, he's been MIA since mid-June, though I can't find a specific report of injury.

Mechanics

Sadly this video was all I could find on Carr, and while it's not ideal let's check it out:

Carr works quickly, pitching with almost a slide-step out of the stretch. His tempo is good as a result, but his delivery and path to the plate is a bit odd.

He only really lifts his leg slightly higher than that before pulling the ball out of the glove Stokes-style and driving forward.

Then, with his foot planted, he slings his arm across his body, causing him to fall toward first base. This slinging-motion explains some of control problems. It also allows Carr to generate velocity, albeit not particularly efficiently. It comes as little surprise, then, that Carr has trouble disguising his changeup, due to varying arm-speeds. He also finishes with a little recoil, which some people identify as an injury risk, but I don't really buy into that.

Statistics

Year	Level	G	GS	IP	BF	H	R	ER	HR	SO	BB	ERA	WHIP
2006	APPY-R	12	11	48	215	49	29	26	5	44	23	4.88	1.50
2007	NYPL-A	14	14	66.1	280	55	31	27	4	74	27	3.80	1.236
2008	(NYPL-A+FSL-A+)	26	25	119	527	125	75	69	10	96	54	5.22	1.504
2009	FSL-A+	14	2	42.2	183	36	21	17	1	42	28	3.59	1.50

FIP	SO%	BB%	SO/BB	BABIP	GB%	FB%	LD%	IF/F	HR/FB
4.32	20.50%	10.70%	1.91	0.319	48.60%	34.50%	13.50%	14.10%	9.80%
3.49	26.40%	9.60%	2.74	0.298	54.40%	28.60%	13.20%	18.40%	7.70%
4.42	18.20%	10.20%	1.78	0.324	44.40%	39.20%	15.30%	14.30%	6.80%
4.21	23.00%	15.30%	1.5	0.327	55.10%	32.20%	8.50%	14.60%	2.60%

Mark Says:
While the high BB% is discouraging, the fact that he's continued to miss bats throughout his FSL tenure is also very encouraging. Because his problems are primarily mechanical the movement on both his fastball and his slider can be inconsistent, ranging between plus and below average from outing-to-outing. He also has a tendency to slow down his armspeed on changeups. These are still problems that are correctable natural development though. If he can wrangle his command in, everything could fall into place very nicely, and he could become a nice option for a Major League bullpen in short order. His ERA and HR/FB in the pitcher friendly FSL does mask his true current ability a bit, but remember, he's actually a bit younger than Beaulac. Keep an eye on his BB% the rest of this year and next. If it starts to tick up, his strong FSL aided ERA should be more of a quirk than a troubling sign.

Sam Says:

The great paradoxes of Carr's statistical profile this season is that, while his walks have increased, he's maintained his high strikeout rate with more called-strike threes (although it's mostly an issue of sample size). Some pitchers walk more when they reach higher levels because hitters are making more contact, taking their pitches outside the zone, and working deeper counts, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Carr, who continues to get the K's. The groundballs are also encouraging, and his tRA is actually lower than his FIP at 3.77. As Mark noted, though, the FSL is a pitcher's league (3.95 avg. tRA) and the real stat to watch is the walks.

Fun With Comparisons

~~Scott Boras Says~~ Derek Carty suggests:

Frank Francisco

The Texas shutdown closer moved about the same speed through the minors as Carr is now, with his BB/9 rising steadily as he went. For his minor league career, he had a 4.8 BB/9 but a 9.8 K/9, and looked trapped in the minors at age 24, unable to get his walk rate under 5. Then, thanks to some good cup-of-coffee showings, he got a shot and showed demonstrable improvement every year in the majors. At age 28, he lowered his BB/9 to 3.7 and this year it's down to 2.6. He's a late bloomer, sure, but a shutdown closer.

Impartial Observer says:

Fernando Rodney

Nick Carr has yet to post the strikeout numbers of Frank Francisco, though, and has demonstrated marginally better control. That description fits Fernando Rodney well, a player who basically carried a Nick-Carr skill-set all the way to the majors. Rodney is a very inconsistent reliever year-to-year largely due to his fluctuating control, and that's probably the type-of-reliever Carr will be, if he reaches the majors.

Steve Phillips says:

Derrick Turnbow (2008 version)

Turnbow, like Rodney, posted peripherals very similar to Carr in the low minors before finally getting a chance with Milwaukee in 2005, a year he posted a 1.74 ERA and went to the all-star game. That would be an optimal outcome for Carr, but I'm not talking about that Derrick Turnbow. The Derrick Turnbow of today, whose mechanical problems prevented him from throwing any strikes, is the low-end projection here. In fact, Turnbow could be all three of these comparables, he has had such an up-and-down career, but I figured it was better to include some variety.

Projected Value

Perfect-world WAR: 2.0

Median WAR: 0.3

Conclusion: Wait and see. You can't learn stuff, but you can learn control and mechanics. Whether Carr is a quick flameout with injuries or a shutdown reliever will depend on how well he adjusts.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:04:52 -0000

Some things to read while leaving work early.

So, as you've probably noticed, 2009 is scheduled to be Rickie Weeks' third consecutive "breakout year." But would you take that news more seriously if it came from Peter Gammons? (h/t FanPost)

While most of the Brewer team projections this spring haven't been pretty, individual Brewers are getting positive attention all over the place today. On top of Gammons' mention of Rickie Weeks, Ken Rosenthal is picking Yovani Gallardo to win the NL Cy Young and But The Game Is On is listing Ryan Braun as an NL MVP candidate.

Speaking of Braun, it sounds like he's feeling pretty good after a couple of days back in big league camp and should be full speed for Opening Day.

The news is not as good for Craig Counsell, who has a torn meniscus in his right knee and may require surgery. He's considering trying to play through it this season, and the team is leaving it up to him. With that said, recovery from surgery would only take 2-3 weeks, so Counsell would be somewhat foolish to spend all season playing in pain to avoid missing the 6-8 appearances he'd miss recovering from surgery.

Trevor Hoffman's injury isn't very exciting for most people, but his rehab could be a pretty big deal for some, as Hoffman may make one or more rehab appearances for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. That would be one way to get the teams' new partnership started off on the right foot.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Vinny Rottino and Hernan Iribarren will return to Nashville for the 2009 season, but it doesn't sound like there's much room for them to play. (h/t FanShot)
Beyond The Box Score took a look at the TotalZone rankings of several shortstop prospects. Alcides Escobar has a five run lead on second place, and a 71 run lead on Mariner prospect Carlos Triunfel.
The JS Camp Report says Angel Salome should be recovered from his back injury in time to start the season at Nashville, and Jonathan Lucroy is expected to catch nearly every day in Huntsville.
Tom H. says Chase Wright, Nick Green, Sam Narron, Lindsay Gulin and Tim Dillard will start the season in the rotation in Nashville, with Chris Narveson pitching out of the bullpen. It remains to be seen what will happen when Chris Capuano is ready to start making starts.

Remember when the Brewers were an AL team? I'm sure Moose Haas, Chris Bosio, Bill Wegman and Teddy Higuera do, as they're all on Recondite Baseball's list of pitchers who started the most games without an official at bat.

Rankings/Projections/Predictions:

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog predicts the Brewers will finish third in the Central.
The Tenth Inning Stretch has the Brewers winning 75 games and finishing fourth behind, among others, the 86 win Pirates.
Baseball Musings ranks the Brewers fourth in the Central in Wins Above Replacement.
It Is About The Money, Stupid has Bodoglife's 2009 over-unders, which have the Brewers at 80.5 wins. Stop by later today for more over-under fun.
The Mudpuddle has the Brewers picked to finish fourth in the Central and the Cubs winning the World Series.

he will not make the team

unveiled their dollar menu

BoDogLife

Turnbow out of the bullpen mix

Adam J. Morris — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 02:32:06 -0000

Evan Grant has an update on the pitching situation, with Ron Washington saying he wants Josh Rupe and Kris Benson on the Opening Day roster, and Derrick Turnbow appearing no longer being part of the equation:

The Rangers also communicated to Turnbow, who could ask for his release Tuesday under the terms of his minor league contract, that he was unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. They’ve asked him to stay with the organization, but the next decision is Turnbow’s.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

faketeams — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 15:30:06 -0000

RP Joe Beimel, Washington Nationals: I like Joel Hanrahan at closer. I do not believe he will lose the job. However, someone would have to take over if he did. I'm betting the $3MM the team used to sign Joe Beimel that he gets the job. A hunch? Not really. There just doesn't seem to be a better candidate with as much financial incentive.

RP John Grabow, Pittsburgh Pirates: I like Matt Capps at closer. I do not like his lack of control this Spring. In 53.2 innings last year, Capps walked five. So far, he has wlaked eight in 10 innings. Like Beimel, Grabow looks like the best option in a non-descript Pirates' pen.

RP Ryan Perry, Detroit Tigers: With Joel Zumaya disgarded into the Future Closer dustbin, the Tigers' 1st round pick in 2008 appears ready to take the mantle. With Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney ahead of him, Perry looks like the pitcher the Saves Punters will salivate over.

RP Derrick Turnbow, Texas Rangers: Frank Francisco has channelled his aggression from fans in the stands to batters at the plate and has won the Rangers' closing job. While Turnbow is best remembered by fantasy players as the pitcher who failed to hold the closer's job in Milwaukee, he has impressed the Rangers' manager enough that he wants Turnbow in the bullpen.

RP Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays: GM J.P. Ricciardi said there is nothing to current closer B.J. Ryan's lack of velocity this Spring. A couple years ago, he said Ryan was having back problems and that turned out to be Tommy John surgery.

OF Brett Gardner, New York Yankees: The Yankees need energy. Melky Cabrera was unable to bring it last season and will lose out on the team's CF job as a result. Yeah and his continuing mediocrtiy as a major leaguer makes that easier to conclude. All signals point towards Gardner hitting ninth to set-up a lefty/righty/lefty order. Look for Gardner to provide a surprisingly high number of runs and stolen bases from the 9th hole.

A collection of Saturday night links

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 01:49:26 -0000

I figured I should do some Rangers links tonight, since it appears there are enough out there already to make the Sunday morning links post rather unwieldy...

Evan Grant did a live blog session from the game this afternoon that included fielding a number of questions. One of the items he hit on in the session, in answering a question about why Andruw Jones is here, is something that I think is worth highlighting:

I think a huge part of what this team is doing is trying to construct a roster that will give it the best chance at a strong start in April.

If this team had played .500 ball the past two Aprils, I think the Rangers -- Ron Washington and Nolan Ryan, in particular -- would be less likely to roll with Andruw Jones. But I think there's a fear of untested guys like Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz struggling early and the team getting off to a bad start yet again, and I think that Jones represents a security blanket, a guy they feel like they can turn to try to provide some help in the middle of the order.

I think that is also driving the notion of moving Scott Feldman to the pen and putting Kris Benson in the rotation to start the season. I don't think the Rangers really think Benson is a long-term solution...but they are, I think, very worried about the lack of quality RHP options in the bullpen right now, and scared that the bullpen will blow leads early, leading to getting in a hole and demoralizing teams and fans both (leading to lower attendance). So I think they are willing to make a few peripheral moves that aren't necessarily helpful in the long-term in an effort to try to solidify the short-term.

T.R. Sullivan, in a piece talking about how the Angels' rotation problems may create an opening for the Rangers, echoes that theme:

The Rangers' bigger concern is avoiding another bad start. That weighs more than anything that's going on in the Angels camp. The Rangers were 10-15 in April of 2007 and 10-17 for the month last season.

"The last thing we want to do is worry about our start and thinking that our season begins and ends in April," Young said. "At the same time, we'd like to establish some momentum early and not have to be clawing back from the beginning. If we have to make adjustments, do it right away instead of the middle of May."

The Rangers started off 7-16 in 2008 and spent the rest of the summer trying to get back into contention. They reached six games over .500 in the first week of August and then just ran out of gas. In '07, the Rangers were 10 games under .500 in the middle of May and 23-42 on June 13. Their season was effectively over.
"Frustrating," Kinsler said. "Very frustrating. The last two seasons we thought we had quality teams and April definitely put a damper on the beginning of our season. We understand how important the first month is. Last year, all year long we were talking about what would have happened if we could have gotten off to a better start. Everybody understands it."

The Rangers, as an organization, appear to be doing everything they can to ensure that the Rangers get off to a good start this year. And if they don't, I don't think it is unrealistic to expect that heads will roll.

Grant also has some talk from Mike Maddux about wanting to maintain a regular rotation early in the season and not skip the 5th starter, something that Maddux believes will help the starters be better rested in August and September. Don't know what Ron Washington thinks about this, but my guess is that Maddux's opinion on the topic is going to end up being the more influential one, and if he doesn't want the 5th starter skipped, the 5th starter won't be skipped.

Jeff Wilson says it will apparently be either Kris Benson or Brandon McCarthy pitching in the #3 spot in the rotation, with Matt Harrison and (if he's in the rotation) Scott Feldman locked into the back two spots.

T.R. Sullivan has some blog thoughts on the pitching situation, saying, among other things, that Washington seems to really want Derrick Turnbow to make the team. The pecking order for those final four spots seem to be in constant flux, particularly with Nippert and Eyre having injury issues. Nippert seems a lock for the d.l., and if Eyre ends up there as well, I think we'll see Madrigal, Rupe, and Turnbow make the team, along with a waiver claim or trade acquisition.

Sullivan also has a story on the importance of pitching to the organization in general, which includes a quote from Mark Connor about Martin Perez having three above-average major league pitches, and some discussion from Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington about where they expect to see improvement.

Jonathon Mayo has two articles up on the Rangers' farm system, a system overview piece and a "10 guys to watch" piece.

Wednesday morning things

Adam J. Morris — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:54:08 -0000

The Rangers beat the snot out of Cliff Lee yesterday, but the most interesting performance may have been from Derrick Turnbow, who, Evan Grant notes, has allowed just 1 hit and 1 walk in his last three outings.

Scott Feldman was roughed up in the fifth yesterday, after 4 solid innings, but feels good about the progress he's making. Jeff Wilson also notes that C.J. Wilson and Luis Mendoza threw long toss yesterday in their efforts to return from blister problems.

Wilson also says that Warner Madrigal has a spot in the bullpen pretty much nailed down, and runs down the candidates for the remaining bullpen spots. Of note is that Wilson suggests that the Rangers will have an 8 man bullpen until April 16, when they need a 5th starter...that would mean that Matt Harrison would have to be optioned to AAA to start the season.

Andruw Jones is looking at his options, as it appears he isn't likely to be added to the Rangers' roster by his opt-out date. Marlon Byrd, meanwhile, has come back strong after early injury issues, as Grant talks about in a lengthy set up notes from yesterday.

Saturday morning Rangers things

Adam J. Morris — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 15:42:18 -0000

Rangers are now 1-2 for the spring. Clearly, the season is over. Fire Daniels, fire Washington, fire Maddux, burn down TBIA.

Scott Feldman wasn't good yesterday. Luis Mendoza was, though. Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson says Andruw Jones looked fine defensively in center field, but ran his strikeout streak to six before getting an infield single. Jones might start again today, while Marlon Byrd will sit before making his spring debut tomorrow. And Derrick Turnbow is set to make his spring debut today, as well.

Wilson also writes on Brandon McCarthy's need to stay healthy and productive this year, with some quotes from McCarthy and talk about the mechanical adjustments he has made and the weight he's put on.

Randy Galloway writes about Chris Davis being part of the first wave from a promising Ranger minor league system, but also makes a John Danks reference and whines about Doug Melvin getting fired. And credits Melvin (incorrectly, I think) with building a great Milwaukee farm system...Melvin, in reality, inherited a strong farm system in Milwaukee, much like he inherited a bunch of talent in Texas.

BBTiA has a projected Frisco roster up, and it is pretty nice collection of talent.

Nelson Cruz is heading out to play in the WBC, but Ron Washington insists that being gone for 3 1/2 weeks won't impact Cruz's spot in Texas.

T.R. Sullivan says Mendoza's outing yesterday was a step towards winning a roster spot. Personally, I don't want to see Mendoza win a roster spot...I want to see him spend the year, or at least the first several months of the year, pitching in AAA, working on his breaking ball, and getting his confidence back.

Ron Washington is emphasizing defense this spring. Of course, it seems like every team at this point in the spring is emphasizing defense, but clearly, this is one of the biggest areas for improvement between last year's Ranger team and this year's Ranger team, and if they are going to finish above .500 for only the 2nd time in the last 10 years, the defense has to get better.

T.R. Sullivan with some questions

Adam J. Morris — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 19:56:13 -0000

T.R. Sullivan runs down a list of questions, with the early answers...

Of particular interest is that he thinks Doug Mathis could end up playing a big role on this team, and that Brendan Donnelly and Derrick Turnbow will both make the team out of camp, allowing the Rangers to get a closer look at them while giving Warner Madrigal additional team in AAA...

The Brewer Advent Calendar #8: Mitch Stetter

KLSnow — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 18:46:24 -0000

Sorry today's calendar is late, but behind door #8 we find...Mitch Stetter!

via www.mlb.com

Stetter pitched 25.3 innings for the Brewers last season in 30 appearances, and this year he gets an opportunity to be the Brewers' full time LOOGY, if he can hold off R.J. Swindle to earn the role.

Stetter's biggest problem, though, is control. Stetter walked 19 batters last season while allowing just 14 hits, making him just the third Brewer ever to pitch more than 25 innings and allow more walks than hits.

Pitcher	Season	IP	H	BB
Derrick Turnbow	2007	68	44	48
Bill Parsons	1973	59.2	59	67
Mitch Stetter	2008	25.1	14	19

Thanks to TheJay for the stat.

The bullpen situation

Adam J. Morris — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:45:33 -0000

Okay...Eddie Guardado has signed a minor league deal. The reality, though, is that he's going to end up on the 25 man roster unless he gets hurt. He's a lock for the bullpen.

At this point, you have to figure there will be a 7 man bullpen, and barring injury, four spots are pretty much locks:

Frankie Francisco

Eddie Guardado

C.J. Wilson

Josh Rupe

I have to think that both Derrick Turnbow and Willie Eyre are more likely than not to end up making the bullpen, although neither is a slam dunk (although I still think that if Eyre wasn't close to a lock, he wouldn't have been put on the 40 man roster).

If Turnbow and Eyre both stick, you have to figure that the last spot is going to go to a true long-man type. Dustin Nippert seems to be the most likely to end up there, although if Scott Feldman moves to the pen (which would only seem likely if Ben Sheets get signed), he'd probably fill that role. Kason Gabbard also would seem to be in the mix for a long man spot.

I realize that this isn't an awe-inspiring bullpen. But the interesting thing about bullpens is that most of the ones that end up doing really well have some guys pop up out of nowhere. Really, that's what makes bullpens so unique...you can often times dig up a guy as an NRI or as a fringe prospect who can have some things click in the pen and become a quality reliever.

Look at the 2004 team, that had a bad rotation and an outstanding bullpen. You had Francisco Cordero, whom everyone expected would do well; Carlos Almanzar, an NRI; Frankie Francisco, a guy who wasn't even on the radar after being picked up from Chicago the season before via trade and posting a 7+ ERA in AA; Brian Shouse, a 35 year old LOOGY with one good major league season under his belt; and Ron Mahay, a former NRI and converted outfielder who had kicked around the league for a while.

Those guys logged 60% of the bullpen innings for the Rangers in 2004, and were the reason that the bullpen was arguably the best in the A.L. that season. Having guys show up and put it together -- Almanzar and Francisco, in particular -- was the key.

If you are looking for the 2009 version of Almanzar, it may well be Turnbow. The conventional wisdom on Turnbow was that he had one great season with the Brewers and has sucked ever since. The reality is that his peripherals really haven't been terrible, despite some mediocre numbers, and if he's healthy, he's a reasonable bounce-back candidate.

And the 2009 version of Francisco? There are a lot of possibilities, really, due to the high number of live arms the Rangers have hanging around. John Bannister is generating a ton of buzz, and while I don't think he's much of a candidate to make the team out of spring training, he, like Francisco c.2004, has limited experience above A ball and will likely start the season in the minor league pen, but also like Francisco, could end up coming quick if things click for him.

Guillermo Moscoso is a possibility as well, a guy like Bannister who has had injury problems but appears to have put them behind him. The organization says they are going to look at him in the rotation, and he supposedly has expressed a strong preference for staying in the rotation rather than pitching out of the pen, but his arsenal could well be best suited for a bullpen role.

And there's also Thomas Diamond...everyone knows his story, big guy, big arm, underwent T-J surgery in 2006. He's largely fallen off the radar, but if he can get a reliable offspeed pitch going this spring, he could be someone who slides into a setup role and produces immediately.

Plus, as has been discussed before, Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are on the fast track, and either or both could end up pitching at TBIA, either in a rotation or bullpen role, before the season is up. While their futures lie in the rotation, I could definitely see one of them -- particularly Feliz -- in a Joba-esque setup role while being groomed for the rotation going forward.

In any case, I think the bullpen picture is starting to come into focus. I'm not expecting a repeat of 2004 or 2007, when the bullpen was dominant and carried the pitching staff. But I do think an improvement over 2008 is likely, and there are some interesting pieces there that create the possibility of something really nice happening out there in 2009.