SB Nation - Matt Stairs

Pull Yourself Together in Pittsburgh

Charlie — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:07:25 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

The Pirates are interested in injured pitcher Justin Duchscherer this offseason.

Is it just me, or do the numerous reports of the Pirates pursuing injured or damaged-goods players remind anyone of the 2002-2003 offseason, when Dave Littlefield grabbed Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs, Kenny Lofton and Jeff Suppan on the cheap? Frank Coonelly is explicitly making the argument that Rick Ankiel should sign with the Bucs as a way to get some playing time to get his career back on track. Littlefield did about the same thing prior to 2003, when the market was incredibly unfavorable to players and, as I recall, several of the guys Littlefield acquired couldn't find anyone to give them a big-league contract even though they weren't that bad the previous year. Sanders, for example, played decently for the Giants in 2002, but he couldn't get more than a million bucks elsewhere, so he signed with the Pirates and used a great 2003 performance as a springboard for a $6 million contract with the Cardinals.

Of course, Littlefield tried to do about the same thing in 2003-2004, but it didn't work because the market had normalized. That's how the Bucs got stuck with Raul Mondesi. But what he did prior to 2003 was one of the few smart things he ever did. It seems like Coonelly is trying to do the same thing, albeit with risky players rather than with a depressed market. Play here, he seems to be saying, and you can create a path to a bigger paycheck somewhere else.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pretty much everyone except Doug Melvin seems to think the Brewers should offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez.

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Some things to read while not getting what you hoped for.

The Brewers have until 11 pm tonight to finalize their plan to offer or decline arbitration to five free agents, and while Tom H. seems to think the Brewers will extend an offer to Felipe Lopez, Adam McCalvy is reporting the team is "leaning against" making the offer to any of the five (FanShot).

All of this is another episode in the "Doug Melvin Moments" series I think most of us are getting increasingly sick of. Doug, we get it. Times are tough for the ever-so-downtrodden small-to-mid market GM with the job many of us would kill for. If the system is really so unbearable, you're welcome to quit and be replaced by someone who will spend more time working with the tools they have and less time bitching about the ones they don't.

Assuming Melvin does eventually get off his soapbox and get back to the task of improving the team, Wisconsin Sports Tap has a guide for prospective new Brewers that can help them avoid becoming the next Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall or Johnny Estrada.

With that said, it might be a while before we have news on Mark Mulder. Roguejim uncovered a story yesterday that sheds some light on Mulder's rehab and situation, and raises the possibility that Mulder will decide not to come back if he's unable to perform at a level he's accustomed to.

We're also probably just about done discussing Kevin Millwood. Rangers beat reporter T.R. Sullivan had this to say about the rumors:

The Rangers wouldn't mind adding pitching but they don't want to subtract it so they are not trying to move Kevin Millwood. Word is the Brewers were interested but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Doug Melvin haven't spoke in weeks, That might change at the Winter Meetings but the Rangers still need Millwood's arm far more than they need to move his salary.

Adam McCalvy opened up the mailbag yesterday and answered reader questions on the possibility of a Prince Fielder extension, Dominican prospect Santo Aybar, Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Gindl.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a review of the season for the Brewer minor leagues, and a look at the attempt to build pitching depth in the system.
Project Prospect has Jonathan Lucroy ranked ninth on their list of baseball's top 15 catching prospects. Angel Salome was not ranked.
The Baseball Chronicle has Alcides Escobar as a backup infielder on their 2010 All Prospect Team. Escobar is on the bench behind Rays prospect Reid Brignac and Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro, who is playing out of position at second base.
Rattler Radio has photos of the construction at Time Warner Field, where they're hard at work adding the new beach seats, boardwalk and bullpens.

Up for some arbitrary list-making today? Miller Park Drunk has a list of the top ten Brewers of the decade. It's worth a click for the picture, if nothing else.

John Axford might have an outside shot at winning a spot in the Brewer bullpen next spring, depending on how rest of the offseason goes. In the meantime, he spent yesterday talking to college students about life in the big leagues and the importance of education.

On the transaction log:

Cardinals: Re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and signed infielder Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed catcher Chris Coste, and re-signed infielder Alex Cora to a one year deal worth $2 million.
Pirates: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal and released catcher Robinzon Diaz.

Wondering what it might take for the Brewers to acquire Edwin Jackson? Here's a hint: The Mariners reportedly turned down an offer from the Tigers would have sent Jackson to Seattle for pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley. So apparently the price is pretty high.

If the Brewers are serious about making an effort to sign Justin Duchscherer, they may have competition within the division: MLB Trade Rumors says the Pirates are one of the interested teams.

The Brewers probably won't be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, but odds are the competition will heat up soon. Halladay has reportedly told the Blue Jays he won't accept any deal after reporting to spring training in February.

With the Winter Meetings coming up, we have more Rule 5 Draft notes: Baseball Time In Arlington has a look at the top ten unprotected pitchers, including former Brewer farmhand Will Inman.

Yesterday I mentioned the voting for the third baseman on the Timber Rattlers' 15th Anniversary team, and left a comment on Rattler Radio asking about the fate of top contender Bo Robinson, who had a few promising seasons in the Mariner organization before dropping off the map in 2002. Within 24 hours the answer was the subject of this week's Mehring Monday. Impressive turnaround time, to be sure.

I'm a few days behind on this one, but I recently discovered Cooperstown Chatter, the MLBlog run by the Baseball Hall of Fame, and this post on Rollie Fingers' 1981 MVP season. It's almost as impressive as Matt Stairs having a street named after him in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

By the way, if you've ever been to the Baseball Hall of Fame, or you haven't but would like to go someday, you can become a fan on Facebook. As an added bonus, Facebook fans get to help in the voting for this year's broadcaster induction.

On this day in 1967, Seattle was awarded an American League expansion franchise. I guess that makes today the Brewers' date of conception?

Happy birthday today to Tom Filer, who posted a 4.32 ERA in 39 appearances as a Brewer during the '88-'90 seasons and turns 53, and to Julio Machado, who spent parts of the 1990 and 1991 seasons as a Brewer before being arrested for murder in Venezuela. He turns 44.

Oh, and I haven't actually watched it yet (no sound on the computer where I write the Mug), but this video has Rammstein and Cookie Monster, so what could possibly go wrong?

Drink up.

Three Up, Three Down: Reasons The Phillies Will Win (or Lose) Tonight

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:03:43 -0000

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed. Can they do it again tonight? Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15. Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances. The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes. The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24. Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home. They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999. For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities. For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles. It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series. It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances. Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much. Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH. Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight. If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs. Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season). They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte. With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game. All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night. Here's hoping....

Yanks take Game 2, take Pedro deep in 3-1 victory

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:33:57 -0000

Ahh, much better.

The Yankees beat the Phillies in a much-needed, if technically not "must-win" Game 2, with A.J. Burnett outdueling old friend Pedro Martinez.

The Phillies took an early 1-0 lead in the 2nd with an RBI single from Matt Stairs, but the Yanks answered in the 4th with a solo shot from Mark Teixeira. Two innings later, Hideki Matsui went yard to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead, and then they collectively abandoned the longball game in favor of the small ball one.

If we had lost that game, I would have undoubtedly been arrested, and they would have needed dental records to identify the first base ump's mangled body.

Something tells me this game is just a microcosm of how the rest of the series is going to go. Nip and tuck. Working the pitchers. No easy outs, no easy runs. I don't know if my heart can take it.

Admittedly, no one can say we teed off on the long-winded stepchild of the Yankees. He kept our bats frozen through 3 innings, save a single from Hideki. And I wouldn't dare publicly subscribe to this at the time, but the thought did cross my mind that if Pedro holds us scoreless and to one hit, I may have to walk into a pit of wild boars to take me out of my misery.

Fortunately, Tex saved me from this fate when he led off the bottom of the 4th with shot to right center. 'Bout time. I was like 8 minutes away from exploding into a "the Phillies have weighted the ball!" outburst. (Seriously, though. It felt like the whole bar had been possessed by Sterling, every shot looked like it was going to carry, inducing us all to jump to our feet in excitement only to see it caught no where near the warning track.)

With the score tied 1-1, everyone was breathing slightly easier. Slightly. A.J. continued to deal, and unlike his usual Good A.J. persona, he wasn't even throwing the occasional wildness. Over 7 unbelievably solid innings, he used 108 pitches to let up just 4 hits, walk 2, and strike out 9. NINE. Thank you a thousand times over, A.J.

The offense did little to help him out, though it never seemed as through Pedro was baffling them, per se. If anything, they might have been a little overeager to knock him around and hence were getting whiffed on giant cuts.

In the bottom of the 7th, the Yanks added another run to their lead, and it really should have been a couple more runs, but a horrendous call ended the inning. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Jorge Posada singled to score Brett Gardner (although his ribbie was regrettably not off Pedro, but I'll take it.)

Jeter made the first out of the inning when he did what every hot batter does with 2 strikes, runners on, in a playoff game where you only lead by 2: bunted. Naturally. Johnny Damon came up and hit a line drive to first which Ryan Howard sells as a catch despite its definite hop, umps buy it, Posada out at 2nd, Damon out with the catch.

Technically, it should have been a 4-1 game, with runners on 1st and 2nd and still 1 out, since Howard never even stepped on first. Eh, it's moot.

Mariano Rivera comes in for 6 outs and throws wayyy too many pitches en route to his 38th postseason save (39). Things started to get a little too close for comfort when he put on Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins, with Chase Utley to deal with on only 1 out. Superman induces a double play, inning over.

The 9th went on without much of a hitch beyond Raul Ibanez's double. Mo struck out Matt Stairs to end the game. (Btw, I never noticed how much of a fat middle-aged Guiness-drinking, Mets-rooting blob Stairs looks like--that's the type of guy who bats cleanup in his bar softball league, not for a pro one.)

The series is tied at 1 game apiece, with a "travel" day tomorrow, then 3 games in Philly commence on Halloween. Great win tonight, Yanks. And special nod of gratitude for Jose Molina (yup, first time that sentiment has ever been uttered ever), for picking off Jason Werth in the 3rd. Maybe that was the weird kick in the pants the boys needed to start it up.

It's still our series. Here's to taking Philly by the jugular this weekend.

And what better time for bloodshed then October 31?

-CYC

Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape.

Rubie Q — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:00:42 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Is CC Sabathia enough to shift the tale of the tape toward the Yankees?

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You're a discerning baseball fan. You're an intelligent baseball fan. You can seamlessly work 'WAR' and 'wOBA' and 'FIP' into a barroom/restroom debate and impress the pants off of whomever you're talking to. You're ready to get your last fix of baseball before the long, cold winter of rampant speculation -- followed, of course, by the spring of irrational exuberance -- but, you're wondering: How do the Yankees and Phillies stack up against each other ... in matters beyond the box score?

You're in the right place, friend. After the jump: Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape. (Note: we're required by federal law to note that this breakdown is for entertainment purposes only. However, should you choose to use this information in a friendly, handshake wager with an acquaintance: God help you.)

THE MASCOTS: WHAT'S A YANKEE? WHAT'S A PHILLIE?

YANKEES: Depends where you're living. If you're in the South, it's a person who lived in the Union during the War of Northern Aggression. (Er, Civil War. Sorry.) If you're in Europe, it's all of us across the pond in the States. If you're in Boston, it's an [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] [CENSORED] who loves to [CENSORED] his [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] like a typical [CENSORED] [CENSORED] and sometimes invites his [CENSORED] [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to join in, when he's not [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to pictures of Derek Jeter. [CENSORED].

PHILLIES: It's just an abbreviation of "Philadelphia." Lay-zee. I'm glad that trend didn't catch on; I wouldn't want to follow the Milwaukee Walkies. (Or Milwaukee Millies.) Though it would be fun to make fun of the Minnesota Minnies. (Side note to our friends in Minneapolis: send me a note next April from your open-air stadium. Give me an update on Joe Mauer's frostbite. I'm sure the sight of icicles forming on his sideburns will be stunning.)

ADVANTAGE: Yankees.

UNDERRATED PLAYER:

YANKEES: To the extent that any Yankee can be underrated (and, at this point, I feel like I know more about Phil Coke (favorite band: Genesis, but when Peter Gabriel was in the group, not when Phil Collins took over the vocals and they started churning out crap like I Can't Dance) and Phil Hughes (favorite movie: A Walk In The Clouds) than I do about members of my immediate family), I guess it'd be Nick Swisher. Did you know he put together a 3.7 WAR year? (Yes, TheJay, I know you did. I'm talking about the non-cyborg members of BCB.)

PHILLIES: Chase Utley. Yeah, I know, he gets plenty of pub, but I've seen people (cough Jon Heyman cough) voting Ryan Howard ahead of Utley in the MVP voting. This, in a word, is insane. (Don’t believe me? Talk to Jordan. I believe he’s prepared a multi-volume treatise on this topic, in case you’re looking for bedtime reading.) .282/.397/.509 from a second baseman with plus defense? Yes, please. Where do I sign up?

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

NUMBER OF "TRUE YANKEES" ON THE TEAM:

YANKEES: Four. (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera. That's it. The rest of yous can't hold a candle to Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis.)

PHILLIES: None.

ADVANTAGE: Yanks.

TREASURED TEAM RELIC:

YANKEES: They've got a whole monument park. Pick anything out there behind the left field wall.

PHILLIES: Jamie Moyer.

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

PLAYER WHO MOST RESEMBLES A WWE SUPERSTAR:

YANKEES: This is tough. I'll be honest: I really just wanted to talk about the Phillies on this one. The best I could come up with is CC and the WWE's Mark Henry:

via z.about.com via www.criticalbench.com

PHILLIES: Jayson Werth. I'll bet you a two-liter that he's moonlighting as the WWE's Edge.

via www3.allaroundphilly.com via www.poptower.com

Eerie, ain't it?

(Wait, hold on: I've got another Werth picture for you:

via www.baltimoresun.com

AWESOME. Kinda looks like Matt Damon in The Informant (sans mustache, of course), doesn't it? Jeyson Werth is like Hannibal on The A Team.)

BIG ADVANTAGE: Phils.

POLITICIAN/STATESMAN WHO LOVED THE LADIES:

YANKEES: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer.

PHILLIES: Founding Father Benjamin Franklin (though rumors of his demise due to syphilis are, reportedly, greatly exaggerated).

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

And, most importantly:

BREWERS CONNECTION:

YANKEES: Besides CC, there's Melky Cabrera. He was almost a Brewer this season, although (legend has it) we would have had to take on the bloated corpse of Kei Igawa to complete the deal. (And, speaking of Igawa, here's a question I've been mulling for the past 12 seconds: if the Brewers had traded for Igawa, they probably wouldn't have signed Braden Looper, and we would've been spared the historically awful season Looper put together. [Cue Mykenk.] HOW-EVAH, Igawa only went 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA in AAA this year, and made $4 million, plus the $8 million he's owed for 2010 and 2011 Which option is preferable -- or, to be more accurate, slightly less painful?

PHILLIES: With World Series hero Geoff Jenkins put out to stud, the best I can come up with is former Brewer Matt Stairs. That's still pretty good, I think. I love Matt Stairs. Tell me you wouldn't drink Labatt Blue with Matt Stairs. He'd drink you under the table, for sure, and you might wake up listening to Bryan Adams and watching "The Stanley Cup: 100 Years of Glory," but still: I'd party with Matt Stairs. If nothing else, maybe you could get enough Labatt in him that he'd say this again.

(Oh, wait. There is another connection: Davey Lopes. Ugh. Now I have to think about the Davey Lopes Era again. That was a fun time, wasn't it? That reminds me: remember, towards the end of the season, when Macha had that quote about his door always being open, and that the players could come talk to him whenever they wanted to -- with the strong implication being that the players weren't coming to talk to him, and that Macha wasn't going out of his way to talk to them, either? You know who else was famous for not talking to his players? Davey Lopes. Ugh, again.)

ADVANTAGE: Push (though I don't think it's out of the question to root for CC in this series).

So, there you have it. Final breakdown: Yankees 2, Phillies 4 (with one tie), and it's not even that close. Go Phillies!

New Year, Same Game Four Result For Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:15:31 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jonathan Broxton, who has come up big all season, blew this one tonight.

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It happened again. The Dodgers again held a lead over the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLCS, this time in the ninth inning, but Jonathan Broxton and the Dodgers walked off the field with a heartbreaking 5-4 loss, and a crushing 3-1 series deficit.

Broxton again faced Matt Stairs, who homered off him last season, but this time Stairs was in a four-for-50 slump. With one out, Stairs walked on four pitches. Up stepped Dodger killer Carlos Ruiz, who was hit with the first pitch, putting the winning run in scoring position. Broxton retired Greg Dobbs, bringing Jimmy Rollins to the plate with two outs and two on. Rollins lined a shot to the gap in right center, bringing home the tying and winning runs.

The Dodgers had this game. Bottom of the order facing Broxton with a lead is easy money. I really don't know what else to say. There is no game tomorrow, so we have roughly 44 hours to hear about how this series is over. From where I'm sitting, I can't say I disagree.

WP - Brad Lidge (1-0): 2 batters, 2 strikeouts

LP - Jonathan Broxton (0-1): 1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk

Box Score

A Brief Look At The Phillies

Eric Stephen — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 16:42:01 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge, please be Brad Lidge.

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NLCS: Phillies vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Thu	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
Game 2	Fri	Dodger Stadium	1:07pm
Game 3	Sun	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 4	Mon	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 5*	Oct 21	Citizens Bank Park	5:07pm
Game 6*	Oct 23	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
Game 7*	Oct 24	Dodger Stadium	5:07pm
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

I can still remember the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach as Matt Stairs' mammoth home run sucked the air out of Dodger Stadium in Game 4 of last year's NLCS. There are so many painful memories of that series: the Furcal error in Game 1, the sure Manny Ramirez home run that somehow was hit to the only part of the park it wouldn't have been a home run, the Chad Billingsley performances that we still have to hear about to this day, the Victorino laser beam home run that may have been eight feet off the ground during it's entire flight, the foul popout to end the series just like Thurman Munson squeezing the final out of the 1978 World Series at Dodger Stadium. A new year, however, brings a new opportunity, so with the NLCS rematch set to begin tomorrow, here are a few notes heading into the series:

Cole Hamels is the same pitcher as last season

On first glance, it may seem like Phillies' pitcher Cole Hamels is having a down year. After all, his ERA is up over a run from last season, from 3.09 to 4.32. However, his peripherals are nearly identical to last season:

Year	HR%	UIBB%	K%	LD%	GB%	FIP	x-FIP	ERA	BABIP
2008	3.07%	5.04%	21.47%	21.8%	39.5%	3.70	3.78	3.09	.262
2009	2.95%	4.79%	20.64%	20.8%	40.4%	3.71	3.75	4.32	.321

Hamels has pitched basically the same in both years, yet as we can see by his batting average on balls in play, he has been less fortunate this season, and as a result his ERA has skyrocketed. The truth about Hamels is that he's probably somewhere in between an unstoppable super ace and a struggling pitcher. But, he's the same pitcher as last year, fundamentally, so if you think he's not capable of reeling off another amazing October run, think again.

Phillies against LHP will be a factor

Much has been made about the Dodgers have the left-handed pitching to combat the Phillies' lineup. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are forces to contend with from the left side of home plate, as are switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino at the top of the lineup. Conventional baseball wisdom suggests that the Dodgers and their southpaw pitchers would have an advantage, but the Phillies have performed quite well against lefties this season. David S. Cohen of The Good Phight tackled the issue yesterday:

Yes, the Phillies lefties do worse against lefthanded pitching, but only going from an .814 OPS against righties to a .793 OPS against lefties. The big difference is that the Phillies righties do much better against lefthanded pitching, going from a .717 OPS against righties to a .783 OPS against lefties.

And, measured against the rest of the league, the Phillies here are at a huge advantage. The Phillies' lefties sOPS+ (measure of how good the team's OPS is against the league for this split, with 100+ being better and below 100 being worse) is 108 against righties but goes up to 125 against lefties. The team's righties sOPS+ goes from 98 against righties to 102 against lefties.

It's true: Utley, Ibanez, and Victorino all hit better against lefties than righties. Rollins has hit worse against LHP this season, but is slightly better in his career. To me, the slew of Dodger lefties matter for one reason: Ryan Howard. Howard against RHP is the best hitter in the National League (.319/.395/.691 this year, .307/.409/.661 career), but against LHP he becomes invisible (.207/.298/.356 in 2009, .226/.310/.444 career). Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Hong-Chih Kuo, and George Sherrill will play a huge role in attempting to shut Howard down.

As for the rest of the lefties in the Phillies' lineup, I have to believe the Dodger lefties are good enough to get them out. Left-handed batters have hit just .193/.268/.317 against Dodger southpaws, the fourth best sOPS+ in the league. Here is how the Phillies' lefties have fared against the top NL lefty squads this season:

LHP Against LHB, 2009
	vs MLB LHB		vs Phillies LHB
Team	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS
Cardinals	.170/.244/.213	.457	.273/..385/.273	.657
Reds	.178/.255/.240	.494	.211/.286/.579	.865
Braves	.203/.267/.304	.571	.191/.283/.340	.623
Dodgers	.193/.268/.317	.585	.189/.254/.358	.613

Teams whose left-handed pitchers have done the best against the league's lefty batters have also done well against the Phillies. A couple of home runs off Danny Herrera inflated the Phillies' LHB OPS off the Reds, but I'm going out on a limb saying the Dodgers possess better LHP options than that. Dodger lefthanders have struck out an MLB-best 32.5% of left-handed batters this season.

Struggling shortstops may be the key to the series

Any time a regular player has an on-base percentage below .300, it's a cause for concern. Jimmy Rollins has a .296 OBP this season, yet there he is at the top of the Philadelphia lineup, game after game. However, he is still having a good season. His BABIP is just .251 this season, after fluctuating between .281 and .309 over the last six years, suggesting some bad luck.

The Hardball Times features a stat called PrOPS, which is short for "Predicted OPS." They describe it thusly:

PrOPS stands for "Predicted OPS." It was developed by J.C. Bradbury amd introduced in this article. PrOPS isn't really a new stat; it's a formula for predicting what a player's OPS is likely to be in the future based on his batted balls, strikeouts, home runs and walks.

Based on his underlying data, Rollins' prOPS this season is .783 (.290/.331/.452), which is right in line with his career:

Year	prOPS	Actual OPS
2004	.769	.803
2005	.767	.770
2006	.820	.811
2007	.831	.875
2008	.816	.786
2009	.783	.719

Rollins is still a force to be reckoned with, despite his low OBP.

As for Rafael Furcal, a healthy back has made him a force to be reckoned with at the top of the lineup, which shifts the Dodger offense into a higher gear. Furcal hit .330/400/.491 since the beginning of September, but more importantly he was six for seven in stolen base attempts. Furcal has had the green light to run all season, but only attempted 11 steals in the first five months of the season. That he is on the move again suggests he finally feels healthy, a great sign for the Dodgers. Furcal hit .500/.500/.667 in the NLDS against the Cardinals.

Brad Lidge is improving, but still struggling

Lidge, one year removed from a "perfect" season (no blown saves in 2008), is having quite the imperfect season in 2009. This year he has blown a whopping 11 saves, including two to the Dodgers back in June on back-to-back days. He has been consistent in his struggling, but a look at the underlying data suggests some improvement later in the season:

Month	IP	BS	ERA	FIP
April	8.2	1	7.27	6.96
May	14.2	3	7.98	5.33
June	4.0	2	6.75	8.40
July	10.2	0	5.91	5.40
August	10.2	3	6.75	4.74
Sept/Oct	10.0	2	8.10	3.35
2009 Totals	58.2	11	7.21	5.35

Even as his FIP improved into acceptable levels later in the season, he still struggled, blowing five saves over the final two months. He had two saves in the division series, but he also walked two of the six batters he faced. On the season, Lidge has walked 5.22 batters per nine innings, so the key for the Dodgers will be patience and discipline. Not that I would ever want the Phillies to have a lead, but if Lidge enters the game with a one-run lead the Dodgers will take those odds.

Who says voodoo dolls don't work?

Since July 1, including the postseason, Matt Stairs has four hits in 50 at-bats, and is hitting .080/.281/.240.

Just like the NLDS with the Cardinals, this NLCS is a closely-matched series between two very good teams. I anticipate a good series, and by "good" I mean "the Dodgers will win in six."

NLDS Preview: Offense and Defense

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 21:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Throw a two-strike pitch out of the zone to Howard, and you'll probably get a strikeout.

Browse more photos »

Welcome to Part 2 of 3 of the NLDS Preview, where I'll scout the Phillies in painstaking detail. RockiesMagicNumber will finish up the preview tonight or tomorrow morning with details on the pitching in the series.

The Bats: A

So you learned this morning that Citizens Bank Park, while a hitters park, is not nearly as big of an advantage as you might think. That in part is why I won't discredit the Phillies awesome offensive production, giving them their bats the lone A in the National League. Here are their rankings:

	Stat	NL Rank
Avg	.258	9th
Runs	820	1st
HR	224	1st
OBP	.334	8th
SLG	.447	1st
wOBA	.340	1st
OPS+	102	1st

Philadelphia's offensive numbers perfectly reflect their CBP's park factors. They are a home-run hitting team shy on singles. So either the park factor is right, the Phillies have fielded a team tailored to their park or a combination of the two. Either way, this is the best offense in the National League.

Let's look at Charlie Manuel's lineup, which is about as stable as you will find, as six players have played at least 155 games:

Player	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Jimmy Rollins - SS	.250	21	77	.296	.423	.316	85
Shane Victorino - CF	.292	10	62	.358	.445	.354	109
Chase Utley - 2B	.282	31	93	.397	.508	.402	135
Ryan Howard - 1B	.279	45	141	.360	.571	.393	139
Raul Ibanez - LF	.272	34	93	.347	.552	.379	130
Jayson Werth - RF	.268	36	99	.373	.506	.382	127
Pedro Feliz - 3B	.266	12	82	.308	.386	.302	80
Carlos Ruiz - C	.255	9	43	.355	.425	.337	103

A glance at the first five, and it's easy to understand why it would be such a big boost for Franklin Morales to get his head on straight.

Bench:*
IF: RH Eric Bruntlett (.171, 0, 7), RH Miguel Cairo (.267, 1, 2), LH Greg Dobbs (.247, 5, 20)
OF: RH Ben Francisco (.257, 15, 46), LH Matt Stairs (.194, 5, 17)
C: LH Paul Bako (.224, 3, 9)
*At the time of writing, playoff rosters had not yet been announced, so the bench composition is an educated guess.

The Gloves: A-

This Beyond the Boxscore article points to the Phillies as being the clearcut best NL playoff team defensively. Indeed, they rank 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in UZR/150, yet they have made 76 errors, second least in MLB.

Take the jump to a detailed look at Philadelphia's lineup.

LINEUP

1. Jimmy Rollins

#11 / Short Stop / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-8

Weight: 175

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 27, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jimmy Rollins	155	672	100	168	43	5	21	77	44	70	31	8	.250	.296	.423

Comment: Rollins followed his disappointing 2008 campaign with three straight sub-.700 OPS months in 2009. The low point was a .167/.206/.292 June. However, he turned it around in a big way in July, throwing a more familiar .313/.385/.539 July. Since that month, he has maintained a better level of play than the first half, but he has sloped off as the second half has worn on.

Strengths: In spite of his terrible average, J-Roll is still a legitimate power threat, is very difficult to strike out and is just two shy of the MLB lead in stolen bases among shortstops. He seems to have lost a little bit of range defensively, but he did make a career-low six errors at shortstop, and he is coming off of two straight gold gloves.

Weaknesses: Rollins is ill-suited for the leadoff role with that OBP below .300. Not surprisingly, he doesn't walk much. He hit just .230 as a RHB.

2. Shane Victorino

#8 / Center Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-9

Weight: 180

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Shane Victorino	156	620	102	181	39	13	10	62	60	71	25	8	.292	.358	.445

Comment: In some regards, Victorino had his best season of his career this year. He didn't deserve the All-Star selection he received, though he did himself well by having his best month in July. He faded down the stretch though, posting just a .650 OPS in Sept/Oct.

Strengths: According to Fangraphs, he has done more damage hitting fastballs than any NL OF sans Justin Upton. He doesn't steal a lot of bases, though he will be a threat to do so. Fangraphs doesn't like his defense, but he earned a Gold Glove last season, and this year's Fangraphs values are incongruent with recent years. He's a good fielder.

Weaknesses: He tends to struggle against finesse pitchers like Aaron Cook and can have issues hitting the change-up. Victorino is better from the left-side of the plate.

3. Chase Utley

#26 / Second Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 17, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chase Utley	156	571	112	161	28	4	31	93	88	110	23	0	.282	.397	.508

Comment: Utley is no contest the best hitting second baseman in the game today, as he should collect his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger this year. He can thank Albert Pujols for robbing him of MVP Awards

Strengths: On top of all his ridiculous offensive numbers, he leads all NL 2B in fielding value. He has never had difficulty turning on fastballs, and he has shown the best plate discipline of his career, walking more and laying off pitches outside of the zone more. He actually performs slightly better against left-handed pitchers too. Note: this would be a good place to bring in your better RH reliever over playing the platoon splits.

Weaknesses: Is he tired? His.193/.290/.325 line since September 1 is truly pitcher-like. For some reason, he seems to have difficulty hitting in a count with three balls.

4. Ryan Howard

#6 / First Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-4

Weight: 260

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Nov 19, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Howard	160	616	105	172	37	4	45	141	75	186	8	1	.279	.360	.571

Comment: Ryan Howard is a scary man to see digging into the batter's box. He had a solid second half and finished the regular season strong, posting a .303 average even since September 1.

Strengths: The imposing run producer finished the year 3rd in MLB in HR, 1st in RBI and 5th in slugging percentage. He is just an elite slugger who can change a whole game and series by seeing one bad pitch. Despite his giant frame, he has managed to be a decent defensive first baseman.

Weaknesses: As we all know, Howard is prone to the strikeout. He has cut his K-rate to a career low, but it's still over 30%. Howard has struck out in half his PA's that have reached two strikes, in part due to the fact that he is the worst hitter in the league at making contact on pitches out of the zone. He also exhibits a nasty platoon split, hitting just .207/.298/.365 against LHP.

5. Raul Ibanez

#29 / Left Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Jun 02, 1972

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Raul Ibanez	134	500	93	136	32	3	34	93	56	119	4	0	.272	.347	.552

Comment: Ibanez made me look like a genius in May when he helped put my fantasy team at the forefront of my division. He had a stellar All-Star first half, when he hit .309/.367/.649. However, he came down to earth in a big way in the second half, hitting a paltry .232/.326/.448.

Strengths: The veteran actually hits left-handers better than right-handers, so ignore the platoon splits here too. He has positive values against every pitch he's seen, so there's not one pitch that can get him out. Even with his second half struggles, he's sixth among NL outfielders in runs created.

Weaknesses: Maybe it's the short porch, but the former Mariner has graded out well defensively from UZR after years of being one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game. He'll go fishing on about a quarter of the pitches outside the zone, only making contact with half of them, which might explain his suddenly high K rate.

6. Jayson Werth

#28 / Right Field / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 20, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jayson Werth	159	571	98	153	26	1	36	99	91	156	20	3	.268	.373	.506

Comment: It's hard to believe Ned Coletti DFA'd this All-Star just three years ago. It may seem like he has come out of nowhere, but really, the increase in production has only come with more at-bats. His rate stats have been in this vicinity for years.

Strengths: His power has been very consistent, knocking seven dingers in each of the last four months, six in the one prior. He trails only Adam Dunn and Ryan Braun in wRAA among NL outfielders, and while his season has been uninspiring on the defensive side statistically, he is regarded as a very solid defensive outfielder. He even has 20 stolen bases.

Weaknesses: He has a decent walk rate, but a 27.2% K rate is still a little too high. Werth struggles most against RHP and power pitchers, so Ubaldo will hold the edge over him in Game 1. He leans pretty heavily to being a pull hitter - only four home runs have gone opposite field and he's hitting just .257 when going the other way.

7. Pedro Feliz

#7 / Third Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 27, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Pedro Feliz	158	580	62	154	30	2	12	82	35	68	0	1	.266	.308	.386

Comment: Feliz is one of those hitters Rockies fans think is a lot better than he is - like Fred Lewis - due to head-to-head matchups. Among all MLB third basemen, only Emilio Bonifacio had a worse wOBA. He may see purple pinstripes and go all Hulk on us, but he's not a real threat.

Strengths: The Phillies 3B doesn't strike out much. His UZR has gone down quite a bit since joining Philly, but he's still a solid defensive third baseman. 12 HR and 82 RBI is very strong for a 7-hole hitter.

Weaknesses: Feliz struggles with anything offspeed, though it's not as if he has really punished fastballs either. Only 11 NL hitters swing at more pitches out of the zone (Barmes is one of them), one of the reasons he is one of the worst NL hitters at drawing walks. He has limped to the finish, hitting in the .225 range over the last two months.

8. Carlos Ruiz

#51 / Catcher / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 22, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Carlos Ruiz	107	322	32	82	26	1	9	43	47	39	3	2	.255	.355	.425

Comment: Ruiz has improved dramatically with the bat from last year, moving from liabilty to unquestionable asset at the bottom of the lineup.

Strengths: Only one NL catcher strikes out less and only one walks more than Ruiz, who grades out as an above average MLB hitter regardless of defensive position despite a .266 BABIP. His 27% caught stealing percentage is solid, and he has committed just 3 errors, the least of any MLB catcher with 800+ innings logged. He has a decent amount of thump as well - his SLG% is just 15 points behind that of Clint Barmes.

Weaknesses: He struggles mostly against groundball pitchers, which bodes well for the Rockies, the best groundball staff in the business. Most of his offensive success comes at CBP - his road splits are .203/.296/.314

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:29:45 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Craig Counsell is clearly upset about not being mentioned in today's Mug.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while keeping your screen clean.

With the day off yesterday, both Anthony Witrado and Adam McCalvy took an opportunity to look ahead to the offseason, with Witrado even breaking out some statistical analysis in what might be his best story as a Brewer beat writer. In his story, McCalvy notes that the Brewers appear to be leaning towards starting Casey McGehee at third base next season, and will likely have to make a decision after the season regarding Ken Macha.

You can add Miller Park Drunk and Quevedo at the Buffet to the list of blogs calling for Macha's head. This is the first managerial season of Macha's career where he's not involved in a pennant race. It may also turn out to be his last managerial season.

Could Javier Vazquez become an option for the Brewers once again? Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is speculating that the Braves may have too much money invested in pitching, and could look to move Vazquez this winter. MLB Daily Dish thinks Kenshin Kawakami may make more sense for the Crew.

In the minors:

Brewer farmhands Brett Lawrie (1-for-5 with a run scored), Adam Stern (2-for-4 with a walk and a run), Nick Bucci (five scoreless innings) and Jim Henderson (picked up the win, faced four batters, struck them all out) made their first appearances for Team Canada in their 9-1 win over South Korea in the first round of the Baseball World Cup yesterday. Stern and Lawrie batted #1 and 2 in the Canadian lineup.
Chris Capuano is expected to start tonight for Helena in their season finale. Cappy did not allow an earned run in his previous two Helena starts, each of which lasted two innings.

On Power Rankings:

The Brewers held steady at #22 at Beyond the Box Score.
Yahoo dropped the Brewers one spot to 19th.

Just one transaction note to pass along today:

Nationals: Claimed pitcher Jesse English off waivers from the Giants and designated catcher Luke Montz for assignment.

There's definitely something to be said for busting out of a slump emphatically. Matt Stairs, who had been 0-for-30 since the All Star break, came up in the ninth inning for the Phillies last night and hit a grand slam. And if you thought the occasional intentional walk to Jason Kendall was bad, here's something worse: On September 5th, nearly two months removed from his last hit, Stairs was intentionally walked by the Astros.

Raul Ibanez also hit his 29th and 30th home runs last night, giving the Phillies four hitters with at least 30. That seems great on the surface, but Walkoff Walk reports that none of the eleven previous teams to accomplish that feat won the World Series.

On this day in 1987, Teddy Higuera allowed a fifth inning home run to Tigers third baseman Tom Brookens, ending his franchise record 32-inning scoreless streak. The Brewers won anyway, 5-2. On this day in 1998, the Brewers won a wild one in Chicago, 13-11 over the Cubs. Sammy Sosa hit his 59th home run in that game: Of the 66 he hit that season, 12 were against the Brewers. No other team allowed more than six.

I wasn't able to find any Brewer birthdays again today, so you'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to Ellis Burks, who turns 45.

It's a slow news day and a short Mug today, so you should use the extra time to go check out the new SBNation.com.

Drink up.

This Close: Nationals 8, Phillies 7

WholeCamels — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 02:30:24 -0000

by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Joe Blanton's consecutive quality starts streak was halted at 11 tonight. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

View full size photo »

So Joe Blanton had his worst outing of the season, and the Phillies went into the ninth down by a score of 8-2. Brad Lidge pitched the bottom of the 8th to "get some work in" pursuant to his new/temporary role as the final inning mop-up specialist. Did you turn your TV off?

The Phillies charged back, loading the bases with one out for pinch hitter Matt Stairs, hitless since July 11. And Stairs delivered, blasting a grand slam into the right field seats. Jimmy Rollins followed up with a single, and scored on a double by Shane Victorino. After an infield single by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard came to the plate against lefty Ron Villone. Sadly, the rally ended there, with Ryan Howard grounding into a double play on a slow ground ball to the second baseman.

Sigh. What else?

Joe Blanton was terrible. I guess he's earned the right, but eight runs in 4.2 innings is just no good. And the offense couldn't get a damn thing done against Livan Hernandez, who wasn't good enough to pitch for the Mets this fall.

Nonetheless there are some good things to take away from this -- the offense broke out, for an inning at least, and Brad Lidge had an OK eighth inning; despite allowing a triple to Willie Harris, he struck out two and allowed no runs. Chad Durbin and Tyler Walker also looked good.

I keep telling myself that two out of three on the road is pretty good under any circumstances, but this one was just so close. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them.