SB Nation - Gerald Laird

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Pride in Defeat: Twins 6, Tigers 5

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:45:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

There was no champagne in the Detroit Tigers' clubhouse on Tuesday night, but high-fives, forearm bumps, and handshakes were much deserved.

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In the days and weeks to come, the collapse will probably be the story. Post-mortem examinations will be performed on the 2009 Detroit Tigers, and plenty of people will point to what they see as the cause of loss. And we have nothing but time in which to go over that stuff.

But for now, hours after Carlos Gomez glided across home plate and then jumped in the air just before his Minnesota Twins teammates swarmed him in celebration, the game should be the story. And maybe, just maybe, the game will be a determining factor in how this season is ultimately perceived. Maybe the little picture deserves to overtake the big picture. Just this once.

Because this game was that good. It had drama. Suspense. Triumph. Despair. Anger. Jubiliation. And unfortunately, for the Tigers and their fans, defeat.

Years from now, many people might still be talking about where they were on October 6, 2009, and the five hours they spent watching the Tigers and Twins fight it out for a division title. And though there is most certainly disappointment in the final result among Tigers fans, there's no need for shame. Under the big spotlight, the Tigers showed what they were made of.

Roar:

Miguel Cabrera took out four days' worth of humiliation on the baseball, crushing it to right-center in the third inning. After weeks of waiting for him to come up big when his team needed him, he did so. Magglio Ordonez continued the revival that looked all but improbable during the summer, hitting a game-tying homer in the eighth inning.

Rick Porcello showed everyone that he grew out of rookie status months ago, striking out eight batters in less than six innings, while allowing only one earned run.

Ryan Raburn became the latest victim of the optical illusion that is the Metrodome roof, losing sight of Michael Cuddyer's sinking liner to left and letting it get past him for a triple. Yet in that very same 10th inning, Raburn redeemed himself by throwing Alexi Casilla out at home plate after he tagged up badly on Nick Punto's shallow fly ball.

Fernando Rodney - the guy who shouldn't ever pitch in a non-save situation, and is never used more than one inning - pitched three innings of relief, throwing 48 pitches. Yes, he ended up allowing two runs, including the game-winner. His name gets the "L" next to it in the boxscore, but when he was the best pitcher the Tigers had in late innings, he gave the Tigers the chances they needed to win the ballgame.

Whimper:

You could feel Tiger Town's collective cringe when Zach Miner took over for Porcello in the sixth. Yet the man had pitched 12 straight scoreless innings before Tuesday night. No one's going to remember that, though. Not after he gave up four hits in less than one inning. Not after Orlando Cabrera's drive to left just snuck over the left-field wall for a two-run homer to give the Twins a 4-3 lead.

The game went far beyond that, but those looking for a scapegoat have a convenient target in Miner.

Jim Leyland will also surely receive plenty of criticism for how he leaned so heavily on Brandon Lyon and Rodney. (Or choosing Miner to take over for Porcello.) Not pinch-hitting for Gerald Laird in either the eighth, 10th, or 12th innings (especially in the 12th, with the bases loaded) is worth revisiting, also. (Laird went 0-for-6, with 10 men left on base.)

And home plate umpire Randy Marsh ought to be a favorite target of Tigers bloggers for years to come. Calling Placido Polanco out on strikes on a pitch in the ninth inning that was almost a foot inside? Or how about refusing to acknowledge that a pitch grazed Brandon Inge's jersey in the 12th? With the bases loaded, that would've forced in a run. Even the Minnesota writers focused on that play.

Perhaps such a game shouldn't have been decided on such a call. But it stinks that Marsh's interpretation was so pivotal.

Okay, that might be a little bit of the bitterness bubbling up. And really, there shouldn't be any of that today.

Comment of the Night:

I've gone from loving baseball to hating baseball to loving it again in a very short amount of time

It’s very confusing

by Dberg

And your runner-up. What an amazing night. You guys really, really brought it. Eight overflow threads! More than 4,600 comments! And that's not even including the 480 comments posted after the game. The BYB community made a spectacular showing of itself, and your grace in defeat was noticed.

Congratulations. And thank you.

Anything is Possible! Tigers 12, White Sox 5

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:55:23 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Curtis Granderson can't believe the comeback he and his Detroit Tigers staged in Chicago on Saturday night.

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Now that was a comeback.

The Detroit Tigers have rallied plenty of times this season when they were behind. But what they did Saturday night in Chicago stands apart from those other revivals.

We've seen pitching duels where Detroit finally broke open a close game by taking advantage of an opponent's inferior bullpen. We've seen game-tying hits and home runs. We've seen walk-off wins. And we've enjoyed many celebrations along the way.

But had we seen anything like this? Down 5-0 after four innings, on the road in hostile territory? Against a pitcher who hadn't allowed more than three runs in his last six starts? With an offense that hadn't scored a run in its last 14 innings?

I guess they were due. In a big way.

Remember last weekend, when the Tigers got all those singles against Carl Pavano, but only scored two runs? It was a bit of a different story Saturday night versus the White Sox.

After only getting one hit off Freddy Garcia in their first four innings, Detroit began to chip away at the 5-0 deficit Nate Robertson left them with. Miguel Cabrera broke the seal with a solo homer in the fifth. But that was just the beginning.

Cabrera drove in two more runs in the sixth, cutting the margin to 5-3 and suddenly making a Tigers comeback look possible. That possibility became reality in the next inning.

Four of the first Detroit batters hit singles, driving in another two runs to the game at 5-5 and chasing Garcia out of the ballgame. Tony Pena took over and promptly gave up another two singles, bringing in two more Tigers runs. The comeback was complete.

But apparently, the Tigers wanted to make sure this one stuck. In the eighth inning, Detroit strung together four straight two-out hits (fueled by Curtis Granderson's triple that was almost a homer), each of them driving in a run. The team that was down by five and looked flat-lined was up by six, with a more than healthy heart rate. Granderson finished off the avalanche of runs in the ninth with a RBI single.

Could there have been a more important win this season? Had the Tigers lost on Saturday (and taken a series loss for the second straight weekend), their lead in the AL Central would be a mere one game. And depending on what happens Sunday, they could've found themselves tied for first place as they play the Twins beginning on Monday.

But instead of a demoralizing loss, the Tigers rallied triumphantly. Perhaps their most inspiring win in a season full of stirring comebacks.

Roar:

Yes, the offense roared mightily. Cabrera went 4-for-6 with four RBIs. Placido Polanco went 3-for-5 with two RBIs. Gerald Laird and Magglio Ordonez combined for five hits. And Granderson broke out of a 2-for-22 slump with a 3-for-6 night and three RBIs.

But a comeback like that doesn't happen without the pitching also shutting the opponent down. And the Tigers' bullpen put some serious clamps on the White Sox over the final 5.2 innings. Most important was Alfredo Figaro, who took over for Robertson in the fourth and allowed only one hit in almost three innings of work. If baseball teams handed out game balls, he'd get one.

Comment of the Night:

On a night in which more than 1,300 comments were posted in the GameThreads (almost 1,700, if you count the Afterglow thread - and I didn't post any comments!), this wasn't easy. And I may well have not gotten this right. There was a lot to scroll through.

But kudos to you for sticking this one out. The Tigers definitely rewarded you for your fandom.

Freddy Garcia

turned into a pumpkin. And Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson and Magglio Ordonez are all gods among men

by ChrisDTX

And your runner-up, with visual aid. Thanks to everyone who spent their evening with BYB, and participated in one hell of a night. You guys are truly amazing. And this fun had better continue.

Morning Prowl: Playoff Tickets, Metrodome Conflicts, Ernie's Speech, and the Roar of '84

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:05:13 -0000

Remember, playoff tickets for the first-round division series go on sale today at tigers.com, beginning at 10 a.m. EST. Are you buying? (And does it not feel right to be doing so before the playoffs are, you know, official?) You can also buy tickets via phone at 1-866-66-TIGER.

And who had their registration selected in the raffle? I know john.kmiecik did. I lost out. Anyone else? Kurt has a bit more on this at Mack Avenue Tigers, asking someone with the team about the raffle selection.

By winning Sunday in Minnesota, have the Tigers already avoided being lumped in with so-called "chokers," like the 2007 and 2008 Mets? Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan seems to think so, but believes Detroit isn't out of the danger zone just yet. Or does he just want to see the AL Central stay close to give baseball one tight race?

(via The Daily Fungo)

For all those who said their goodbyes to the Metrodome on Sunday, there's still a chance the Tigers could play another game there. If there was a tie-breaker, one-game playoff to determine the winner of the AL Central, it would be played in Minnesota, by virtue of the Twins (America's underdog, according to Jon Paul Morosi) winning the season series over the Tigers.

However, there appears to be a scheduling conflict with the Metrodome, as a Monday Night Football game between the Vikings and Packers is set to be played on October 5, which is a one-game playoff would take place. So would such a game have to be played at, say, 11 a.m.? (Of course, the Tigers could avoid all this by winning the AL Central within the regular 162-game schedule.)

Did the Tigers overlook the Royals in their last six games against them? That's what Nate Robertson seems to think.

Ernie Harwell's thank you to the fans last Wednesday at Comerica Park was entirely consistent with the way he conducted himself as a broadcaster, according to The Detroit Tigers Weblog. As Billfer says, Harwell never overtook the moment, letting it instead speak for itself.

If you missed this in Sunday's Freep, Jo-Ann Barnas asked several Tigers to share their feelings on Mike Ilitch. As you might imagine, everyone had nice things to say about the guy who signs the checks (though I think all of the sentiments expressed are genuine).

I just thought it would've been much funnier if one of the guys had said something like, "Mr. I's a great guy. Loves baseball. Pretty sure I caught him not washing his hands in the bathroom." This is probably why I am not employed by a metropolitan newspaper.

Take 75 North highlights the minor leaguers who were considered the Tigers' top prospects, and looks at their 2009 seasons. Who met their expectations? And what can be expected from these players next year?

With the celebration of the 1984 World Series Championship team scheduled for next Monday, September 28, Old English D hopes you'll share some of your memories of that season.

Speaking of that '84 season, if you didn't see it last week, Big League Stew posted a set of photos from the Tigers' championship run. Some are unfortunate, but they're all memorable. I'd love to have the image of Kirk Gibson celebrating the Tigers' triumph on a wall somewhere in my house.

Tigers Tracks has reached the number 7 in its "Tigers By the Numbers" series. Hello, Pudge Rodriguez.

(I wonder what Pudge thought of Cecil Cooper getting canned by the Astros yesterday?)

From last season's catcher to this year's, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo talked to a scout who loves what Gerald Laird has done behind the plate this season.

Fire Jim Leyland breaks down the value of each Tigers position player (for instance, how much Laird's defense is worth to the team), and has two different charts to illustrate his data.

Murray Chass makes his case for Jim Leyland winning the AL Manager of the Year award.

At DesigNate Robertson, Rogo lists 33 things he'd rather do than watch another series at the Metrodome. Really, I counted them.

There Will Be No Sweep: Tigers 6, Twins 2

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:10:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Is Nate Robertson the starting pitcher the Tigers hoped they were getting with Jarrod Washburn?

Browse more photos »

In my three years of writing for Bless You Boys, I've been pretty hard on Nate Robertson. But with a combined record of 16-24 and a 5.55 ERA in 2007 and 2008, along with losing his spot in the rotation during Spring Training this year, Robertson made it pretty easy to get down on him.

However, I come today to praise Nate Robertson. (Out in Scottsdale, AZ, Mike McClary is loving this.)

The Detroit Tigers needed a win today. Their season wasn't on the line, necessarily (though some people reading this will disagree, I imagine). They would still have left Minneapolis with a one-game lead in the AL Central had they lost. But a three-game lead would've made things considerably more comfortable. And Robertson did what he could to make sure the Tigers got that.

Since getting those "fatty, marble-like nodules" taken out of his elbow, Robertson has been a different pitcher. In his first two starts, he'd allowed one run in 10 innings. And if the groin that he injured (or pelvis he inflamed, depending on your terminology of choice) in his last start was healed, he seemed likely to give his team a respectable effort against a familiar opponent.

Holding the Twins to two runs over five innings probably qualifies as respectable, don't you think?

But pitching hadn't been an issue for the Tigers in this series. Their hitting had been the problem. Particularly, hitting with runners in scoring position. Placido Polanco took care of that today. In the fifth inning, behind 2-1, the Tigers had runners on second and third with one out. Time for a weak pop-up or double-play groundball, right? No, Polanco opted for smacking the ball into right field instead. Both runners scored, and the Tigers had the lead.

Detroit padded that lead in the late innings, thanks to a solo homer from Ryan Raburn and sacrifice fly from Polanco (again, driving the ball with runners on base). That gave the bullpen some extra breathing room, though they may not have needed it with the way they pitched. Zach Miner, Bobby Seay, and Fernando Rodney combined to allow two hits over four innings. And perhaps most importantly, they only allowed three fly balls, reducing the chances for a repeat of Saturday afternoon's flub.

And with that, the Tigers say goodbye to the Metrodome (unless events conspire against Detroit and there's a one-game playoff for the AL Central in Minnesota). They also lose only one game off their first-place lead, managing to avoid the worst-case scenarios that Tigers fans feared coming into this weekend.

Roar:

How about Gerald Laird batting 2-for-4? He doesn't just throw out baserunners. Though he did throw out Nick Punto once, and would've gotten him again had the Tigers not been guarding against a hit-and-run in the seventh.

Comment of the Day:

rook34, you have been one serious Debbie Downer lately, but I'm giving this one to you.

a thought on todays game, from pat riley

I recall an article where pat riley told a story of the last thing his father told him: someday, when things are going wrong, you’re going to have to plant your feet, make a stand, and kick somebody’s ass. Today is our day. I am mixing metaphors, but there is no reason, not domes, not nate, not our recent inability to score a damned run, thaat the tigers cannot beat these people. Today.

by rook34

Now, lighten up, Francis.

Oh, and here's a runner-up I'm sure everyone can agree with.

Twins Foiled By...Nate Robertson?

Jesse — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:13:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Has anyone told these guys they should let the girls catch the bouquet?

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Twins 2, Tigers 6

It looked good, briefly. A Jason Kubel ground out in the first plated Orlando Cabrera for a 1-0 lead, and after the Tigers tied it up in the top of the fourth Minnesota came back in the bottom half to answer. Delmon Young's double was the alpha, Nick Punto's clutch two-out hit was the omega, and the Twins re-took the lead at 2-1.

But that was as good as it would get.

It wasn't a good night for Scott Baker. He struggled early to find his rhythym, giving us a hint during his very first plate appearance when he had trouble putting Curtis Granderson away. Seven pitches later Granderson would strike out, but it would be a promise of things to come. By the time the fifth inning rolled around Baker had been staked to a 2-1 lead. I'm still cringing at what happened.

In reality, the inning wasn't as horrible as I remember it being. At the time it was total agony. A seven-pitch walk to Gerald Laird (yes, Gerald friggin Laird, and that I still maintain that changeup was a STRIKE), Ramo Santiago picking up a single, Granderson grounding out but still advancing both runners. Placido Polanco scoring them both on a single to give the Tigers their first and final lead of the game. Marcus Thames adding another single, Miguel Cabrera flying out (that's two if he could just get one more!!!) and Magglio Ordonez picking up yet another single (NO!) to complete the Tigers' three-run inning. Baker was lifted with two away in the fifth, having faced seven batters and given up four singles, a walk and three runs.

Ron Mahay finished the inning.

Francisco Liriano picked up the final out in the sixth, managed a perfect seventh (with a pair of strikeouts no less), and then paid for his successes in the eighth. He'd done well for four outs, but to be fair it wasn't like he knew where his pitches were going. Liriano consistently missed his spots, but as we've come to know, Liriano can also be at his best when he's effectively wild. Which is a great way of saying "thanks, hitters, for swinging at crap", although at the same time his slider is still pretty tough.

So when Liriano surprised everyone by throwing two consecutive pitches low in the strike zone to Ryan Rayburn, it came as some surprise. Rayburn's solo home run, not so much of a surprise. Cisco walked Brandon Inge, who would later score off a sacrifice fly with Jon Rauch on the hill. Liriano clearly still has some work to do mentally. All the talent in the world, and I'm not going to complain too much about a guy with his stuff being "effectively wild", but there has to be some sort of consistency because right now there's none.

The Twins don't pick up the sweep, and it's a shame, but they still come away with a series win which puts them one very meaningful game closer to first place than they were when this whole stress-filled weekend started. A week from tomorrow we get to be in Detroit for a four-game tilt which, hopefully, still means something. Which will depend on how things play out over the next week.

Minnesota gets a three-game stand in Chicago with the struggling White Sox before getting a day off, and then taking on the Royals for three next weekend. While the Twins are in Kansas City, the Sox will be hosting the Tigers. Detroit, meanwhile, gets Monday off before travelling to Cleveland for three. Both the Twins and Tigers are on the road, both play the Sox. This will be a very telling week.

It's been a great weekend, and I'll see you all tomorrow

Six Pack (of questions) With Bless You Boys' Ian Casselberry

Jesse — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:08:37 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Detroit Tigers' Brandon Inge will be in Minneapolis this weekend, doing his best Joe Crede impression. At least, a healthy Joe Crede impression. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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Last night I exchanged a few questions with great Tigers mind and general all-around good guy Ian Casselberry from the best Detroit Tigers blog on the net, Bless You Boys.

Who's going to start for the Tigers on Sunday? Is there a secret weapon in store, or is MLB.com just playing it fast and loose with their probable pitchers page?

Up until Thursday morning, Sunday's pitcher was such a secret weapon that even the Tigers themselves didn't know who would start. Jarrod Washburn, Armando Galarraga, and Nate Robertson were all hurt.

But as it turns out, it's going to be Robertson. Apparently, that "pelvic inflammation" he was experiencing (which just sounds like an entirely different malady than "groin injury") has cleared up. And before he got hurt, he was pitching pretty well, so this might end up working out for the Tigers.

How has Magglio Ordonez been able to rebound for such a terrific second half after being so horrendous in the first half? What's the difference that's got him back to third in the batting order?

I think part of the difference is that Ordonez just got to play, and had the opportunities to work on what was needed to correct his swing. But he got those chances because no one else in the outfield was hitting well. Had someone else been able to keep Ordonez on the bench while he was struggling, he might still be there and wouldn't have reached the plate appearances to trigger his contract option for next season.

Ordonez still isn't hitting for any power, but he does seem to have made some adjustments with opening up his stance. That's allowed to him to make up for some of the bat speed he's lost, and he can turn on pitches he was missing earlier this season.

Justin Verlander is awesome. Please agree. That's not a question, so it doesn't count.

I agree.

Good, I'm glad that's settled.

Aubrey Huff has been getting the nod against right-handers and has been blowing chunks. Is there anyone better who should be getting his at-bats?

The best candidate to get Huff's at-bats against right-handers might be Alex Avila. Then the Tigers could have Avila's bat in the lineup and Gerald Laird's glove behind the plate. But it's too important for Avila to catch regularly and hone his defensive skills (which really aren't bad).

Carlos Guillen is probably their best left-handed DH, but Detroit seems to think left field would be an offensive black hole without him playing there. But really, Ryan Raburn has hit well enough to justify him paying full-time (though he butchers some plays in the outfield), which would allow the Tigers to move Guillen to DH.

Tactically, what's the one thing you hope the Tigers focus on in their gameplan this weekend?

The Tigers often have success when they get to the Twins' middle relief. So if they can tire Minnesota's starting pitchers out, and get them out of the game after five innings, that might be their best chance to win. (I'd say they should just pound the starters if they can, but the Tigers don't seem capable of doing that to anybody.) Of course, Detroit's starting pitching also has to keep it close for that to work in their favor.

If the Tigers maintain and win the division, how do they stack up against the other candidates from the West and the East?

Their pitching gives them a chance against anyone they might face. That is, if their top starters aren't worn out by the end of the regular season.

But the Tigers played the Angels tough, winning the season series (5-4) and showing they can go out to the west coast and win on the road.

I know their season record versus the Yankees looks bad (1-5), but all of those games but one were close. And Detroit had a chance to win each of the three games in New York. A break here or there (and the Yankees got some breaks in a couple of those games), and their record would look much better.

This might sound like a loaded question but it's not--who gets your vote for MVP this year?

Wait a minute, hasn't the MVP already been awarded to Joe Mauer? Is this a trick question? Because that's who I would've voted for.

The Sixth Time is the Charm: Tigers 7, Blue Jays 2

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 00:30:05 -0000

"A good friend of mine used to say, 'This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.' Think about that for a while."

-- Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh

"Nuke" didn't have it entirely right, though. Baseball teams can win games when they take an early lead, get good starting pitching to stop the opponent from scoring. After the starting pitcher tires out, relievers come out of the bullpen to hold the lead they were given. And when the batting order provides a few more runs in later innings to make that lead bigger, it's much easier to hold. Follow that formula and you'll probably win some ballgames.

That sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Easier said than done, obviously. But the Detroit Tigers have made it look pretty difficult recently.

Led by Gerald Laird's two RBI singles, the Tigers took a 4-0 lead over Ricky Romero and the Blue Jays in the third inning. Rick Porcello made sure that lead held up by holding Toronto to two runs and four hits in six innings of work. But perhaps the key to the game was Zach Miner, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney pitching three scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and one walk between the three of them.

Rodney's ninth inning was significantly less stressful, thanks to Aubrey Huff and Brandon Inge driving in three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Although with how Rodney pitches in non-save situations (5.76 ERA), I suppose you could say that actually made the ninth more stressful. At least a five-run lead gave him a sturdy safety net.

Put it all together, and you have the end of the Tigers' five-game losing streak. With the way September has gone so far, does that mean they're now back on a winning roll? Four games remain on this homestand.

Roar:

Or it all could've been due to Amber Grand singing the National Anthem today, as Billfer believes. That theory makes as much sense as anything else that's happened over the past week.

Whimper:

I know Jim Leyland didn't want Curtis Granderson to sit out too many consecutive games with the Tigers facing so many left-handed pitchers. And it's probably better to have him in the lineup for his defense. But Grandy has to start doing something against lefties. After an 0-for-3 day (with two strikeouts), he's now batting .171/.240/.237.

Comment of the Day:

always respect a streak

if you think we won because you watched, we won because you watched

by VivaTigres

Tigers Win! Game 142 Afterglow Thread

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:50:25 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Were the Detroit Tigers finally able to take out the Toronto Blue Jays, as Miguel Cabrera did to Aaron Hill on this take-out slide at second base?

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When is the last time the Tigers jumped out to an early lead on a team? Well, they did just that this afternoon versus the Blue Jays, led by two RBIs from Gerald Laird. Mix that with some good starting pitching from Rick Porcello, and that could win a team some ballgames.

The only question - a big one, given what's happened in recent games - was whether or not Detroit's bullpen could make that lead hold up. Some big insurance runs in the bottom of the eighth, courtesy of Aubrey Huff and Brandon Inge, were certainly helpful.

The long Tiger Town nightmare is over! The losing streak is over at five games. Find somebody to hug. Enjoy a meal in good company.

More later this evening. Thanks for spending part of your Sunday afternoon here!

Fumbled Away: Rays 3, Tigers 1

Ian Casselberry — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 23:50:29 -0000

More photos » by Jerry S. Mendoza - AP

Nate Robertson gave the Detroit Tigers a fine effort Saturday afternoon. But the lineup's inability to score runs once again wasted a good pitching performance.

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Defense was supposed to be the difference between this year's Detroit Tigers and last year's edition. And for the most part, the product has been as advertised. But when you don't score a lot of runs, that margin for error gets tight.

Did we say "error"?

Defensive lapses were really the difference in this afternoon's 3-1 loss to the Rays. Adam Everett's second-inning error didn't lead to a run, but it extended an inning for a starting pitcher who's still building up to his previous stamina.

But the key slip-up was in the third, when the Tigers should've escaped with only one run allowed. Gerald Laird let a pitch in the dirt skip past him, and instead of making the third out of the inning, Pat Burrell was safe at first. Carlos Pena followed with a RBI single, and the Rays had all the runs they needed.

David Price pitched what might have been his best game of the season, allowing just one run and five hits. As mentioned in our game preview, Price can beat himself with high pitch counts. But the Tigers aren't the kind of team that makes opposing pitchers work. And Price cruised past the seventh inning for the first time this year, throwing 106 pitches.

The Tigers really only had one good opportunity to score in the third inning, putting runners on second and third with one out. But Curtis Granderson struck out and Placido Polanco popped out, and Price didn't give Detroit any more chances from there.

Nate Robertson pitched as well as could be expected, considering he was making his first start of the year (and first since last September). Two runs and four hits over four innings (and 70 pitches) should hardly have been a losing effort.

But if Robertson's going to rejoin the Tigers' starting rotation, he might as well get used to having his efforts wasted by poor run support. It's been kind of a theme this year. (And really, it's been a theme for Nate throughout his Tigers career.)

Comment of the Day:

Surprisingly, my disappointment in this game

has nothing to do with Nate Robertson.

by NCDee