SB Nation - Shaun Marcum

Won't You Please Let Me Go: Arbitration for Eligible Jays?

hugo — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

I'm not ready to let Jeremy Accardo walk away just yet (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Following up on Tom's post, I figured I'd take a break from my too-long hiatus to put up my views on the arbitration-eligible Jays.

I don't see the point in offering Shawn Camp arbitration. He pitched well for the team last year but there are cheaper alternatives that have more upside. And he's not even a FA after 2010, as far as I know, so there's not really a reason to keep him around for the draft pick (assuming you think he could get there) either.

Jeremy Accardo, I would offer a contract. Obviously Cito doesn't like him, but he has talent and would be a mainstay in a number of MLB bullpens. I would try to trade him. If they can't get anything useful back, I'd see if he can make the big-league bullpen out of spring, which I think he can. If he doesn't make the team, I'd release him then out of fairness to Jeremy or trade him for whatever is out there. Cito might be what we call testa dura, but he does change his mind about players sometimes and an improved attitude (and, more importantly, improved control) on Jeremy's part could give him a new lease on his Jays career.

Jose Bautista has to be non-tendered, in my view. Even if the Jays want to keep him, I think they can non-tender him and retain him for less money. $4 million is way too much for a utility player (which is what he better be) on a non-contending team. I don't see a lot of teams knocking down the door to snatch him up and if someone wants to give him a starting job, more power to him.

Raul Chavez, I'm not sure it matters one way or the other but he did a nice job last season. I'm not a fan of what I consider to be over-catching, but the pitchers didn't seem to mind.

Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan, I think you absolutely have to offer deals. Neither is going to cost much more than the minimum and while there are huge long-term concerns for both (McGowan if he'll ever pitch again, Janssen if he'll ever be as good as he was), they do both have proven major league success and when you have the chance to get that for close to the minimum, you take it.

Shaun Marcum, Jason Frasor, and Brandon League to me are no-brainers, as is Brian Tallet. Tallet is right on the bubble of being a Type B free agent in 2010, is a useful lefty out of the pen, and shouldn't be too expensive.

Today's title from the incredible song "Age of Consent" by New Order, one of my favorite winter bands.
Stay warm.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Friday Notes: Janssen, Snider, Marcum, Stewart, Jackson

hugo — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:31:31 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, and Travis Snider are all hoping to see the majors again by the end of the season. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Hi everyone. Just a quick collection of some notes.

The Las Vegas Sun has had a trio of nice articles over the past week. First, they talked to Shaun Marcum about his rehab:

"I'm just trying to stay positive, knowing that hopefully I can get up there and pitch again this year, but if I don't, it's not the end of the world," Marcum said Saturday before the 51s' 8-7 victory over Salt Lake at Cashman Field. "I just have to take the rehab process slowly enough so that I don't have to go through this again next year."

With Marcum's recent back injury, the Jays haven't decided yet whether he'll throw again this season. The minor-league season ends in a few weeks.

The next day, the Sun talked to Travis Snider:

''I'm just getting in there and allowing things to happen,'' said Snider, who was sidelined from early June until July 2 with a lower back injury. ''Since I've come back from the injury, I've worked really hard with hitting coaches in the organization to fix some mechanical errors that I've had. Things just weren't translating based on the pressure I was putting on myself.''

Snider is positively mashing at the plate recently, hitting .447 with 3 home runs, a triple, and 9(!) doubles over his last 10 games, 8 walks, and just 7 strikeouts.

Most recently, the Sun talked to Casey Janssen about his frustrations in attempting to return from labrum surgery, one of the most difficult injuries from which a pitcher can attempt to recover. Janssen has continued to experience unpredictable stiffness and inflammation in his shoulder at times, but has slowly been progressing:

"The body's weird, and I know they always say the first year after a labrum (injury) is the toughest. I've ridden that roller coaster this year."

Casey also mentioned that he has no problem with relieving, as opposed to starting, when he returns. I've always liked him as a starter and I think he has the stuff to be a good one, but if relieving keeps him healthy than that's the way to go.

Baseball America took a look at the best prospects traded during the trade season this year and Zach Stewart, acquired by the Blue Jays, clocks in at number 2, behind just Brett Wallace, who was traded for Matt Holliday. The best of anyone involved in the Cliff Lee trade was Jason Knapp, who came in at #5.

Finally, shortstop prospect Justin Jackson hasn't played in a while, because he himself underwent labrum surgery - on his left (non-throwing) shoulder (h/t Batter's Box and their short interview with Dick Scott). Jackson is expected to be ready to return to action in December, but this is something to keep an eye on as the left shoulder is the more crucial shoulder for a right-handed hitter. I wonder whether this explains any of Jackson's struggles at the plate this season.

J.P. Ricciardi Expects Halladay To Remain With Team Through 2010

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

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Joel Sherman of the NY Post talked to Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi who said not only does he expect Roy Halladay to remain with the Jays this year, he also expects Halladay to remain with the team through 2010.

"I would have to talk to ownership, but I personally would be less inclined to trade him in the offseason," Ricciardi said when reached by phone by the Post. "I would think let's put our best foot forward in 2010. We expect to get our injured pitchers back (such as Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch) and let's try to win.'

Ricciardi again reiterated his position that unless he was wowed by a deal he wouldn't trade Halladay, and as of today he has yet to be wowed.

He also spoke a bit about his thoughts on the Phillies decision to acquire Cliff Lee. When asked if he thought the Indians got enough for Lee Ricciardi said, "beauty is in the eye of the beholder," which when translated to English means NO.

Poll

Will Roy Halladay be a member of the Blue Jays 2010 roster?

Yes

94 votes

No

85 votes

179 votes | Poll has closed

3 hours to game time

Tom Dakers — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:06:33 -0000

And Roy Halladay is still a Jay. But then I won't breathe a sigh of relief until I see him on the mound. I think twitter is allowing rumors to run more wild than they normally would. Someone twitters a guess and it's everywhere in a few moments. The one I just saw has Cliff Lee going to the Phillies for not near enough, so I don't believe that one either. I think, at the moment, if Doc goes it will be to the Red Sox, just because I think the Sox are worried about the little slump they are in and hope that a big deal would end it.

We saw Shaun Marcum and Scott Richmond on the Jay's bench yesterday. It took me a few moments to recognize Marcum. I guess he'll travel with the team for a bit. Richmond is to start Friday, and took Dirk Hayhurst spot in the line up. I feel sorry for Dirk but that's life as someone in the back of the bullpen, I'm sure he'll be back in September if not before.

Jordan Bautian says that last night was Ichiro's first career walk off hit. He's pretty amazing, he barely swung the bat, jus enough to drop it between the infield and the outfield. I thought at first that Scoot or Hill would have a shot at it.

I'm going to wander over to IHOP for breakfast. One of my favorite things about being on this side of the border is IHOP, if we had them in Calgary I'd be 50 pound heavier. Then spend an hour or so looking at book stores and then sit in the 100 F heat at the game. One of the ushers told us that they likely will close the roof for the game today. Hope so.

Marcum, Janssen, Richmond on the Comeback Trail

hugo — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:42:26 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Scott Richmond is one of three wounded Jay hurlers trying to make his way back to the big-league team soon. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Scott Richmond started for the GCL Jays today in their Rookie league game. He got into some trouble early, gave up a solo home run in the second, and ended up going 3 1/3 innings, striking out 5, walking one, and giving up 3 earned runs on 9 hits. That's a lot of hits, but good to see him pitching again.

Casey Janssen picked up the win yesterday for New Hampshire with 1 1/3 hitless innings with one walk and one strikeout.

We covered Shaun Marcum's last start for New Hampshire (I always group he and Janssen together, maybe because they both debuted for the Jays the same year) - 4 2/3 scoreless innings, 4 Ks, 2 walks, 3 hits. He was reportedly throwing in the mid-80s, which is good - in his Dunedin start he was in the low-80s so things are apparently progressing well. By my calculations he is scheduled to pitch again tomorrow night for New Hampshire against Trenton.

SB Nation AL East Midseason Round Table Part II

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 22:20:26 -0000

So, here's part II of the AL East Midseason Roundtable Tom and I did with the other good people of SB Nation: Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosting and participating were R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focused on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Of course, this roundtable pales in comparison of Jays content (not to mention pretty colours) to our very own Bluebird Banter trade deadline roundtable, part one of which is here and other parts of which are forthcoming! Anyway, more after the jump:

Part 2: Second Half Storylines

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What surprising story lines from the first half of the season have shaped the standings the most?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): The Rays ferocious offense and lackadaisical starting pitching. Nobody expected Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, and probably even David Price to struggle this much.

Tom Dakers (Bluebird Banter): For us, injuries to starting pitchers. 7 pitchers that have started for us are injured at the moment and 2 others have spent time on the DL.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For all the Jays pitching injuries, it seems every piece of spaghetti has stuck to the wall.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's true. The injuries have really given the Jays a chance to showcase their pitching depth. Not all the replacement starts have been great, but by and large the pitchers called up from the minors have done a tremendous job.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There have been plenty of surprises in Baltimore this year, but given the overall ineptitude of the team they've hardly shaped the standings. I think the offensive outburst by the Blue Jays to start the year was the most surprising thing to me in the East. I mean, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro aren't bad players, but really? They've come back to earth now but the fact that the Jays were in first place for nearly two months is mind boggling.

Tom Dakers (Bluebird Banter): Hill and Scutaro were balanced out by our two best offensive players from last year (Vernon Wells and Alex Rios) forgetting how to use their bats. Wells might be pulling out of it. Rios, not so much. But nothing good is going to happen unless we go a little while between pitcher injuries.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Fair point about Rios and Wells but the fact remains I couldn't have imagined the Blue Jays putting up the run totals they did before the season started. It seemed like every time I looked at the scoreboard in the first part of the season the Jays were tossing up a ton of runs. Of course, playing outside the division for such a long stretch helped.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): How good Brett Gardner has been. We knew he could run and play D, but his batting line has made him (to this point) one of the best CFers in the game. Yes, you read that right. He's been the ninth best this season, ahead of guys like BJ Upton, Adam Jones and Jacoby Ellsbury. We would've been happy with just steals and defense, but his impressive batting line of .287/.360/.416 is what's propelling him that high.

On the other side, Chien Ming-Wang has been dreadful. That also has been a surprise. Despite coming off a serious injury, we expected at least league average innings from him. Instead we've gotten one of the worst stretches in MLB history. He's on the DL for the second time this year. Is it the injuries, or has he forgotten how to pitch?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I guess there really isn't any surprising story lines anymore. The biggest story line at the beginning of the season was the mysterious case of David Ortiz, but since then he's figured things out (7 HR in June, 3 so far in July).

The lack of a real shortstop is a story line, but it certainly isn't anything surprising when you have injury-prone Jed Lowrie slotted in as the starter and Julio Lugo as a backup. However, with that said, the greatest surprise has been Nick Green, a journeyman middle infielder that has never really had any success -- until this year. Green's average has dropped to .262 recently, but the Sox are 39-18 when he starts and, despite his horrid defense, he's been a great addition.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which of those surprises are most likely to continue throughout the rest of the season? I.e. which are flukes and which are for real?

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Of the two aforementioned Yankee story-lines, the one I most believe in is Gardner. There's no reason for his speed and D to drop off, and his batting line, while surprising, is far from exceptional. I can definitely see him continuing it. As for Wang, I just don't see him coming off another injury having a good second half.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): I do think there will be a dropoff from Marco Scutaro and, at least in power output, from Aaron Hill (more doubles, less home runs), though I do think Hill is for real (Scutaro is such an unusual case I honestly don't know what to think). One player I think could keep it up is Ricky Romero - before this season, J.P. Ricciardi was a laughingstock in Toronto for drafting Romero, but Ricky put together a great half season and I think there's every reason to think he can continue to be at least a very solid mid-rotation arm going forward - if he can avoid the rash of serious injuries that have plagued Toronto's young pitchers. Though Romero has gotten a bit lucky with runners left on and could see a little regression in his ERA (it's 2.96 at the moment), he is both limiting walks (3.08 BB/9 innings) and missing bats (7.52 K/9) quite well. He has three high-quality pitches and is getting a good amount of ground balls.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): David Ortiz, if we consider him a "surprise" still, will continue to hit. He's been looking great recently and, to put it simply, you can never get Ortiz out of the limelight. As for Green, it's hard to tell what his future is. Lowrie is set to come off the disabled list soon, so the Red Sox have a decision to make: who's the backup infielder, Lugo or Green? Many think Lugo could be cut soon (because who would trade for him?), leaving the backup job all Green's.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which big local stories aren't getting as much attention from the national media? Should they be?

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The rookie parade in Baltimore has been exciting, but the national media has only focused on Matt Wieters. He's THE big story, of course, but the fact is in addition to Wieters, the starting LF and 3/5 of the rotation are rookies. Two of those rookies, Nolan Reimold and and Brad Bergesen, have been my happiest surprise this year. Reimold leads rookies in a number of offensive categories and Bergesen has emerged as the team's best starting pitcher.

Should the national media be paying attention? It's hard to say. A favorite past time of O's fans is lamenting the fact that no one notices when the Orioles do well, but the fact is they are currently irrelevant. Hopefully one day soon the Orioles will be splashed all over national news publications and networks, but until they start to actually succeed it's difficult to justify. An article about Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis did make the front page of ESPN.com recently, so perhaps our time is finally arriving.

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Attendance, thank heavens ESPN and company aren't harking on that, but the local papers can still turn to it for a quick response.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): The Orioles are one of two teams to whole-heartedly take the "three center fielders" approach this year. How's that working out, both at the plate and in the field?

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Before the season started all signs pointed to the Orioles outfield being one of the best defensive trios in the majors. Well I don't know what happened but the defense hasn't been great at all. Nick Markakis, who has always been a defensive asset, has taken a real tumble. His UZR/150 in '08 was 11.1; this year it's -15.9. I have no idea what the difference is with him. His arm seems as strong and accurate as it was last year, but he seems to make bad decisions on plays off the scoreboard or close to the wall. Hopefully it's just an aberration. Nick had a lot of big changes in the off season, getting married in the fall and having his first child during spring training. His offense has been down as well and I'm hoping he's adjusting to a new way of life and will get both sides of his game back on track soon. Adam Jones has had a similar defensive drop this year. He plays too shallow for my tastes and I think it hurts him. Often when he is racing back on a ball of his head he seems to get a bit twisted around. It's different than the effortless gliding you expect from Adam. Luckily his offense has picked up so considerably from last year that it hasn't hurt his overall production as much as it could. It's still disappointing though. The Felix Pie experiment ended quickly and his replacement Nolan Reimold doesn't much fit in with a "three center fielders" philosophy. I'd say the O's outfield defense has been one of the biggest let downs of the season for me.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): It's hard to say the national media doesn't cover anything at all when the Boston Globe alone has at least four reporters at each and every game. That doesn't even factor in the Herald, Providence Journal, yadda, yadda, yadda. With that said, they do a great job, but it is hard to pick something they haven't already stabbed at at least 10 times already.

One thing worth noting is how great of a job George Kottaras is doing as the backup catcher -- a.k.a. Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. The thing is, no one is hearing his name mentioned. You know why? Because he's doing a good job and when Wake's catcher is doing a good job, you don't hear a peep. But when you start seeing passed balls left and right, that's when you hear about the catcher. Kottaras, though, as a rookie is doing a great job. I don't even care about his .218 batting average. That's good enough to be Wake's backup catcher. The future Red Sox catcher, too? We'll see.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Well, Ricky Romero is starting to draw some accolades for his exceptional performance thus far, and Aaron Hill improbably made the all-star team. Adam Lind didn't, but, being a DH, he wasn't on the initial ballot, and so it was quite impressive just to see him on the final player ballot. To me, the most interesting stories not being told belong to Marco Scutaro and Scott Rolen. GM J.P. Ricciardi traded nothing for Marco Scutaro and then promptly signed him to a dirt-cheap 2-year deal. He, seemingly alone of the GMs of the league, saw Scutaro as a potential everyday shortstop (though not so much so that he didn't also sign David Eckstein prior to last season). And Scutaro has risen to the challenge, walking in 14% of his at-bats and putting up a .355 wOBA out of the leadoff spot. Marco has been incredibly patient (swinging at only 11% of pitches outside the strike zone) and also has 25 doubles already. Who knows if he can keep it up, but it's certainly not a BABIP illusion of the type you often see in 1/2 season outlier results. To top it off, he is playing absolutely exceptional defense at shortstop. For a player to change this significantly at his age isn't unheard of, but it's pretty close.

As for Rolen, he struggled so mightily with injuries last year that it has been great to see him put together such a strong first half. His new swing mechanics, built to compensate for his shoulder injury, have produced a ridiculous number of line drive singles and doubles (he's batting .330 with 26 doubles and a 27.5% line drive rate so far). that have compensated for him hitting just 6 home runs. And he makes highlight reel plays on a daily basis at third base, leading more and more people to suggest that we are seeing a historically good defensive third baseman (though I should point out that UZR has him at only above-average so far this season). Throw in clever baserunning and all that good intangible stuff, to the extent that you care to, and it's clear why he's become such a favourite of Toronto fans and media, and, as yet, a (mostly untold) great comeback story for this season.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): I've been thinking about this question for a couple days, but still don't have a good answer. It seems that every Yankee story is a national story, but I suppose the fine play of Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena haven't hit the big-time yet; both filled in for injured players and exceeded expectations. They held their own at the plate and played great defense, something we're not accustomed to seeing from backups. They had to be sent down to when the normal backups returned (and also to get more playing time), but I expect to see them a lot next year as the primary backups.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What story lines will we see in the second half of the season that most people aren't expecting?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): There's a few exciting ones that could crop up. Everyone will be on their heels to see how many bags Jacoby Ellsbury will end up stealing. He has 40 now and is on pace for 76. That may not seem like anything great to some teams, but this is the Red Sox -- they're like dinosaurs on the basepaths. One story line I don't want to see, but we could, is Jed Lowrie going on the DL again. It seems like he can never stay healthy.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Instead of getting worse, the Orioles might actually get better. If Chris Tillman is added to the rotation along with Bergesen, Hernandez, Guthrie, and Hill/Berken, it could get exciting. Not to mention the O's offense has not been as good as they can be, and if they can turn it up in the 2nd half, playing Baltimore might not be the cake walk the AL East contenders hope it will be.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): I think the Jays will go on a surprising little run, not unlike they did late last season. The rotation has been in a constant state of flux but could benefit from Shaun Marcum's return, which the team has slated for August - a Halladay/Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Scott Richmond et. al. rotation is actually quite good and could string together some wins. The truth is that the Jays have played quite a bit better than their record would indicate and could get even better if the pitching finally stabilizes and Travis Snider makes his way back to the big club -even if he doesn't break out, he'll certainly be better than David Dellucci has been. I was at a Jays-Orioles game this weekend and an O's fan asked me "doesn't having David Dellucci negate the point of even having the DH?"

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Johnny Damon. He's having yet another very solid year (in the last year of his contract). He'll try to play every day to show he's durable, but will the Yankees re-sign him, offer him arbitration, or let him walk? It will depend on his second half. Hideki Matsui is also in the last year of his deal, so we're probably about to witness the last 70-odd games of his MLB career (as I expect he'll either retire or return to NPB).

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): How about ending with one bold prediction we won't hold you accountable for if you're wrong, but we'll worship at your feet for if it comes true?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Travis Snider will end the season with 20 major-league home runs.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Jason Bay will have a new contract before the end of the season. That doesn't sound very bold, but Red Sox policy is that they do not negotiate contracts during a season.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): Your 2009 AL RoY will be from the Orioles, but it won't be Matt Wieters. It'll be Brad Bergesen.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Chien Ming-Wang comes back in early August and has a stellar close to the season. A man can dream, can't he?

It's Hard to Say, It's Hard to Tell, I Always Thought that He Was Well: Who Is At Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries? (Part Two)

jessef — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:11:51 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Get well soon, Jesse. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Hey all, this is part two of our two-part series on who is at fault for the long-term injuries we've seen to four MLB-ready starters since the Spring of 2008. In part one we looked at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, our two pitchers recovering from labrum surgery. Today we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, who are recovering from ligament-replacement (Tommy John) surgery.

Marcum, who undertook surgery last September, is farther along in his rehabilitation and hopes to be back with the big club in August (though that seems like a stretch to me). Whether Marcum is ready to go in August or September, it would be a remarkable recovery either way. Let's just hope he doesn't put too much pressure on himself to get back too quickly (as I think he did last season).

Litsch, whose surgery took place this past June, is naturally much farther behind Marcum, but is hoping to return at some point in 2010. Everyone's timetable for Tommy John surgery recovery is different and rushing pitchers along is not necessarily the best move. Doctors may know more than we do, but the amount they don't know is greater than the amount they do know. Litsch saw Dr. James Andrews twice this season before it was determined that he'd need to go in for ligament-replacement, so no doctors know everything. B.J. Ryan also went in for Tommy John surgery early in the 2007 season and worked hard to get back early and we all know how well that worked.

Shaun Marcum, who was a shortstop and closer in college, was drafted in 2003. He finished up the season as a reliever in short-season A ball and was converted to a starter the next season, when he made 25 starts and pitched 148 1/3 innings, splitting time between A and A+ ball. He dominated at the AA (4.0 K/B-ratio) and AAA (5.0 K/BB-ratio) levels in 2005, earning himself a callup and pitching a total of 165 innings (157 minors, 8 majors). In 2006, he split time between the majors (78 1/3 IP) and minors (52 2/3 IP) for a total of 131 innings. He finally became a mainstay in the Jays rotation in 2007, pitching 159 innings (a pretty large increase from the previous season, but actually a few less than in 2005). In 2008, Marcum threw a total of 168 1/3 innings (most in the majors, 17 in the minors).

Focusing on 2008, Marcum got off to an excellent start (67 K and 22 BB in 78 2/3 IP through the end of May) but was sidelined in mid-June with elbow soreness related to a ligament strain. The Jays DLed him and after a quick rehab he re-entered the Jays rotation a month later. Unfortunately, it may have been too soon as the previously excellent (86 K and 27 BB in 98 2/3 IP before his injury) Marcum struggled mightily prior to being sent back down to the minors in late-August (23 K and 16 BB in 36 1/3 IP). Marcum was recalled in early-September and pitched well in two starts before being removed in the third inning on 16 September with an injury that would end up requiring Tommy John surgery.

Marcum was regularly throwing 100+ pitches early in 2008 (between 10 April and 12 May, he threw 100 pitches every start). As we said in part one, Gibbons rode his starters hard, even his young ones, and Marcum is a prime example of this. After returning from his injury, Marcum was throwing about 90-95 pitches per start prior to being sent down to AAA. When he came back up to the majors in September, his two starts prior to his injury were 103 and 106 pitches. Even though his pitch counts were lower late in the season, because he was ineffective and because of the summer heat, those lower pitches counts were probably at least as tiring as his regular 100-pitch starts earlier in the season. Add in that he was recovering from soreness and it's extremely likely.

When you consider that Marcum was recovering from soreness and was ineffective, I think it is certainly possible that if the Jays had shut him down a bit sooner (or if Cito had at least kept him on a tighter leash), the surgery would not have been necessary. It is also possible that his initial soreness was due to an increase in pitching workload from 2006-2007 (although he pitched more innings in 2005, those innings were at a lower level and his dominance probably put less strain on his arm because he would have laboured less against lower-quality hitters).

Jesse Litsch is a bit of a different case. Litsch, who we projected to accrue the most innings by a Blue Jays pitcher not nicknamed Doc this season, had piled up innings at both the minor league and major league levels since being drafted in 2005. Since 2006, Litsch's innings pitched totals: 158 2/3, 187 1/3, 196. That 2006-2007 jump is somewhat significant, but it is not exactly startling and Litsch did not seem to show any ill effects, as he finished the season pretty strongly. The innings increase from 2007-2008 is almost negligible.

Litsch didn't seem to lose much towards the end of last season striking out 31 (6.7 K/9) and walking 15 (3.2 BB/9) in 41 1/3 IP in September. Although that walk-rate is higher than where he was during the season (just 2.0 BB/9 for the full season), the strikeout rate is also much higher (5.1 K/9 for the full season). Litsch had actually been sent down to the minors for ineffectiveness about a month before Marcum but upon returning to the majors was fine. Cito did ride Litsch quite hard as well. After being recalled, Litsch threw at least 104 pitches each start and during one three-start span actually threw 337, including 112 directly after a 115-pitch start. Before being sent down, Litsch was throwing about 90 pitches per start (with a few starts over 100 including a 114-pitch start, but he only threw 92 the following start and had only thrown 80 in the previous one).

Whether Litsch's injury is related to being overworked towards the end of last season is probably inconclusive. He had shown himself to be capable of throwing lots of innings in previous years, but he was worked harder than ever in August and September of 2008. It is important that we keep this all in mind when we consider that Litsch's recovery in 2010 should not necessarily be done on Marcum's timetable. Marcum seems to be recovering quicker than almost any other starter I've ever heard of. We should not expect Litsch to be ready this time next season, though it would not surprise me if he was able to work some at the minor league level and possibly make a few starts in the majors late in the year. Let's keep it in mind that pitchers who have trouble returning from injuries or reinjure themselves aren't lazy -- in fact, they're probably the opposite of lazy, they're probably pushing themselves too hard.

We Have the Facts and We're Voting Yes: Ruminations on Sliding into the All-Star Break

hugo — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 21:25:53 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Roy Halladay looks on the bright side - the Jays haven't been nearly as bad over their past slide as the record would have you believe. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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After the Jays' 6-1 trouncing of the Philadelphia Phillies on June 26, less than 3 weeks ago, the Jays sat at 41-34, tied for the wild card. Much more significantly, the Jays had the third-best run differential in the American League, and 4th best in all of baseball. Yep, that's right, less than 3 weeks ago the Jays were the 4th-best team in baseball. And that is all after the Jays' 9-game losing streak.

Since that game, of course, the Jays have been awful, going 3-12, worst in the AL. All the Jays' competitors have had winning records since then (often at the Jays' expense), with the Yankees leading the way at 10-5.

So, you already know that all this "throw in the towel" stuff is based on less than three bad weeks - 15 games in fact. If the Jays were still tied for the wild card, or close, we wouldn't be talking about throwing in the towel. But here's what you might not know: other than a 10-0 trouncing to the Phillies on June 27th and two weak-tea 4-1 losses to Tampa Bay, every one of those losses has been by 1 or 2 runs. Since the Jays began their road trip, a bleak 2-8 affair against three AL East teams, every single loss has been by 1 or 2 runs. The Jays have lost in a lot of different ways over those past 10 games, but one thing remains in common - play those games again and a different outcome in several of them is likely. Now, of course, you have to win those games - that's what separates a good team from a mediocre one. But the Jays aren't a .200 team (past road trip) or a .350 (since June 26th) team and have lost a lot more of them than they likely will as the season progresses.

Now, I am not arguing that the Jays are going to come back and win the division this season. That's not likely, though certainly not impossible - they have simply lost too many games (and too many pitchers), and the strength of the competition is too great. Nor do I think they will necessarily make the playoffs. But the truth is, the past few weeks have been more a rash of bad luck than anything else. The team's pythagorean record, still 4 games over .500, shows that. The Jays haven't been playing well recently, but they haven't been playing as poorly as their record over that time would have you believe. And, in truth, we're talking about a few bad weeks after a mostly excellent first half.

The Jays have a pretty decent team and they should continue to play entertaining baseball and win games from here on out. The young pitchers like Ricky Romeo and Brett Cecil have shown a lot and young hitters Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are having excellent seasons at the plate. Shaun Marcum may be back soon, and Travis Snider is hitting well at AAA and could be called up in the next few weeks. Roy Halladay could well stick around and he's reason enough to watch - if not, you don't want to miss his last starts as a Jay. Stick around, it should be a fun second half.

It Wasn't Me That Made Him Fall, No, You Can't Blame Me At All: Who is at Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries?

jessef — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:57:49 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Get Well Soon, Casey! Good luck with your rehab start tonight. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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There has been a lot of discussion on the site recently about all of the pitching injuries the Blue Jays have sustained recently, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what could be causing them. In one of the comments to a recent fanpost, it was suggested that the Jays should start implementing "The Joba Rules" for some of the young arms, in order to keep their innings and pitch counts down. Will Carroll thinks that it may be J.P. Ricciardi's fault, not based on pitch counts or too many innings, but on some sort of "organizational philosophy," which I guess means that he doesn't automatically discount pitchers who have a non-zero probability of being hit by line drives or sneezing. Many folks have suggested that Brad Arnsberg or Cito Gaston are to blame as well.

In addition to nagging injuries, like Ricky Romero's strained oblique and Scott Richmond's shoulder tendinits, the Jays have seen several pitchers go down with long-term injuries in the last year or so. The serious injuries that Jays arms have sustained include both ligament-replacement or Tommy John surgery (Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum) and labrum fraying and tearing (Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen). Looking farther back, even Roy Halladay has lost his share of playing time to injury, having suffered from numerous ailments ranging from a "tired throwing arm" in 2004 to a broken leg to appendicitis and finally a pulled groin this season. In part one of this two-part series, we will look at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, who are recovering from shoulder injuries.

Well, each pitcher should really be evaluated separately on a case-by-case basis, so let's look at them individually. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is of the opinion that an increase in workload of 30 innings is generally an acceptable amount amongst young starting pitchers, but an increase of more than 30 innings from one year to the next could spell serious trouble. Verducci's success-rate of pitchers that he projects as injury risks (under 25 years old and an increase in workload of 30+ innings) is quite good, but only if you do not limit his injury projection to a pitcher's arm and shoulder. Personally, I don't put much stock in an increase in workload causing an hip injury or slipping on ice, but that's just me.

Since Verducci had projected Dustin McGowan as a potential injury concern, let's start with him:

McGowan's innings pitched jumped signifcantly from 2006 to 2007, increasing from a total of 111 1/3 IP to 181 2/3 IP. This is, of course, a drastic increase and should raise eyebrows, particularly for a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery before. McGowan did, however, finish the season quite strongly in '07. In August, McGowan struck out 30 and walked 9 over 32 1/3 innings. He didn't show any signs of trouble in September, either, striking out 41 and walking 13 over 40 1/3 innings. I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers the gem he pitched against the Red Sox, when he struck out nine and didn't walk any, a game in which he threw a then-career-high 122 pitches. He was pretty ineffective afterwards in his last two times out, including in his next start when he threw 112 pitches over just 4 1/3 innings.

A prevailing theory on pitcher abuse relates to the number of pitches thrown over three starts (the idea being that a pitcher is not fully recovered each time out) and McGowan threw 333, 326 and 311 pitches over different two-week spans in 2007. He laboured a bit less in 2008, though he did throw 125 pitches in one game and 323 pitches over a span of three starts. A lot of people criticized John Gibbons for leaving his starters in too long (except Ted Lillly) and I'd say that McGowan's injury probably has something to do with a mishandling on the current Kansas City Royals' bench coach's part. While McGowan seemed strong late in 2007, he has not exactly been a picture (or pitcher, if you will) of perfect health throughout his career and it would have been wiser to treat him with kid-gloves, particularly as his potentially excellent career seemed like it was just taking off. Even if the increase in workload did not cause the labrum injury, it was excessively risky.

Casey Janssen, who begins his rehab tonight, split time as a starter between the minors (very effective) and majors (somewhat effective) in 2006, pitching a total of 136 2/3 innings. In 2007, he was moved to the bullpen, where he pitched quite effectively (3.89 FIP), though he was probably helped by an unsustainable 5.3% HR/Flyball rate. In 2007, Janssen pitched 72 2/3 innings, a pretty significant reduction from his total in 2006, but he did make 70 appearances, 11th most in the American League. Janssen had an excellent spring training in 2008 and was all set to re-enter the starting rotation when it was announced that he had torn his labrum shortly before the season began.

As far as misuse goes, there are two main possible reasons for Janssen's injury -- he was either overworked in his 70 appearances in 2007 (unlikely in my opinion, as starting is more stressful) or he had trouble readjusting to a starting role after a season in the bullpen (more likely in my opinion). Now, even if the second case is true, I am not of the opinion that it should be blamed on Jays management -- there are precedents for career-starters spending some time in the bullpen and then being moved back into the rotation and I don't think the Jays treated this situation any differently than I would have. Pitchers get injured sometimes -- that's just part of being a pitcher, the human shoulder is not made to throw a baseball -- some things are unavoidable.

So keep an eye out for Part 2, in which we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, our pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Poll

Who do you think is responsible for all these pitching injuries?

J.P. Ricciard

34 votes

Cito Gaston

8 votes

John Gibbons

22 votes

Brad Arnsberg

23 votes

The individual pitchers, themselves

39 votes

Case-by-case basis (please elaborate in the comments section)

38 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed