SB Nation - Brian Shouse

Where The Rays Stand With Regards to the 2010 DraftWith

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 03:45:09 -0000

As of this writing, and assuming this draft order is correct, the Rays will own six of the top 90 picks in next June's draft. If Brian Shouse finds a new home, raise that number to seven. Last season the Rays had two in the top 100, and from 2006-8 they held three of the top 100 picks. This looks to be the first time the Rays will hold more than three picks that early and often since 2003 when they had four of the top 100 picks. Otherwise, they've never held more than four, and we're talking about a potential seven.

If you want a bit of a blueprint on how teams normally handle that many picks that early, look at Seattle last year. They had five in the top 100, including three of the top 35, and chose the following players:

(2) Dustin Ackley - Best player available

(27) Nick Franklin - Good upside, high school shortstop

(33) Steven Baron - Signability pick

(51) Richard Poythress - Some upside, college bat

(82) Kyle Seager - College bat

With a (presumably) smaller budget and more picks, odds are you'll see an additional signability pick. Although, the lower draft position could balance that some and the Rays have the ability to take a potentially risky sign with any of their picks, minus the two given for failing to sign LeVon Washington and Kenny Diekroeger. Not that I'm encouraging they go into the draft with the mindset to blatantly ‘pass' on a selection, but the option is there. That could lead to a ridiculous 2011 draft if the Rays claim stake to two or more Type-A free agents.*

For most, the key question is simple. How many of these players should we expect to reach the majors?

I took each draft class from 2000-04 and tallied the amount of players in the top 45 who reached the majors, and then the amount in the next 45. What I found are pretty consistent rates in both rounds. In the first 45, about 60% of players will reach the majors. In the second 45, that rate is closer to 48%.Of course, that first 45 includes the top few picks which you would think have the highest likelihood of reaching the majors - or should, in theory - so in actuality you can bump the 60% down slightly if you so wish.

From there, it's simple math. If each player in the top 45 has a 60% chance at reaching the majors, and the Rays have three picks in the top 45, that gives them something like a 21.6% chance of landing three players who will someday reach the majors, a 36% chance at landing two, and a 6.4% chance of landing none at all. If Brian Shouse signs somewhere and they get four picks, then those odds of landing a Major Leaguer increase further; 13% of landing four and 2.6% of landing none.

Now, again, those odds are somewhat inflated because of the very top picks. The chance of landing four Major Leaguers when your first pick comes in the middle of round one is lower than 13%.

Those next three picks will come in the second 45, and if each has what amounts to a flip of a coin's chance of reaching the Majors, then the odds of landing no Major Leaguers is 14%, landing two is 23%, and landing three is 11%. All told, with six picks, the Rays have about a 2% chance of landing six Major Leaguers and less than 1% chance of landing none.

(Note: I know someone will raise the point that the exact percentage of landing none is actually higher than that because the Rays will essentially take a talent or two who are overdrafts. I would offer that the dataset already includes guys who were overdrafts. It's not like taking someone who will sign for under slot in the early rounds is new.)

*If Crawford, Soriano, and Pena each lock up Type-A, then sign elsewhere, that's six draft picks. Three of those should be first rounders. That's four first round picks. If the Rays are ever, ever signing a Type-A free agent again, then it'll happen next winter. The budget will be cleared and the draft picks will mean little.

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 8th: Carl Crawford for Carlos Quentin Swap Discussed, Brian Shouse Rejects Arbitration, Rays Offered Bobby Abreu Two Years, Interest in Matt Capps, and More

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:49:20 -0000

Carl Crawford

This one was posted in the previous thread, but for those who missed it:

Sources with Tampa Bay and the Sox said the sides had talked several times this offseason, not only checking out closer Bobby Jenks and his availability in a deal, but more specifically a trade that would have sent Carlos Quentin to the Rays for Carl Crawford.

The author also quotes White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on such rumors, who says:

''A lot of people know what the White Sox need because Kenny talks to so many teams,'' Guillen said. ''Obviously, we need a leadoff hitter, left fielder, we're looking for that. But right now Carlos is prepared to have a pretty good year. The last 10 games of the season, he was the Carlos we expected.

Not to let the proverbial cat out of the bag, but Jenks fits the a similar profile of Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps. Each is an end-game reliever coming off a rocky season with longball issues. Salary issues are probably going to prevent Jenks from ever donning a Rays cap, he's due at least $5.6M next season.

Brian Shouse

Good news here. Shouse declined arbitration, which means if/when he signs with another team, the Rays will receive an additional draft choice.

Milton Bradley/Pat Burrell

Nothing's changed. Here's the latest Sun Times piece to prove it.

Matt Lindstrom

A quick update on everybody's favorite Marlin reliever nowadays:

The Texas Rangers and, to a lesser degree, the Tampa Bay Rays are among teams inquiring about the Marlins' hard-throwing right-hander — even though Lindstrom had an inconsistent season.

Bobby Abreu

USA Today has a somewhat interesting note about the contract offer the Rays made last year to Abreu:

Two years ago, the Yankees gave Jorge Posada, a catcher who had turned 36 on Aug. 17, a four-year, $52 million contract. A year later, they let outfielder Bobby Abreu, then 34, walk away after he posted at least 100 RBI for the sixth season in a row.

Abreu spent most of the winter waiting for a big payday. There were plenty of offers, with 10 teams expressing interest, agent Peter Greenberg says, yet only the Tampa Bay Rays offered more than a one-year deal.

The Rays also offered more money than he wound up signing for.

Matt Capps

From the Post-Gazette:

Two sources confirmed yesterday that the Pirates have threatened to non-tender Capps, although that tends to be a negotiating tactic.

[...]

Several teams have asked the Pirates about Capps, including the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Such a move would seemingly lower Capps value, but maybe Neal Huntington knows something I don't.

---

More to come.

Gregg Zaun Signs with Brewers; What's Next for the Rays?

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 19:44:04 -0000

Darn.

A sandwich pick, which the Rays received due to the Type-B designation, is worth about $0.8M. Last year, the Brewers received pick number 47 after the Rays signed Brian Shouse. Barring the Rays signing a Type-A free agent, the team will have five draft picks in the top 75 and have the potential to add one more through Shouse. We talk a lot about the importance of draft picks - and signing them - so goa head and take next draft day off, it'll be a fun one.

Gregg Zaun gave us some fun memories. The day the Rays acquired him was pretty special after what felt like an eternity of begging. The book isn't yet closed on the trade, but consider this: the team is essentially trading Rhyne Hughes for a top 50 draft pick. I don't know about you, but I consider that a win. Factor in what Zaun did for the Rays in his short time here, and Hughes has his hands full if he wants to make this an even deal.

As for the catching situation, this isn't fun. The two main internal options at this point are Jose Lobaton - a waiver claim from the Padres last July 30^th - and John Jaso. Lobaton is easily the better defender of the pair - i.e. he doesn't field with the equivalent of an oven mitt while sitting on a stool - but is a lesser batter. Against righties, the switch-hitting Lobaton has a minor league OPS of roughly .780 while Jaso is at .847. If you assume those numbers translate 1:1 (they won't) then over 300 plate appearances Jaso is a superior hitter by eight runs. Is Jaso a worse defender by eight runs? I don't know.

Looking at the free agents list didn't reveal anyone who could be a fit, although, as you should expect, the trade market could provide the answer. We'll see.

Tampa Bay Rays Offer Type-B Free Agents Brian Shouse & Gregg Zaun Salary Arbitration; Designate Jeff Bennett for Assignment

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:52:40 -0000

Per Topkin's Twitter.

No big loss with Jeff Bennett if he's plucked off waivers. Could've been useful, turned out not to be. Such is a scene in the life of a right-handed middle reliever.

The bigger news is the Rays could stand to gain a pair of second round picks if Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse decline salary arbitration and sign elsewhere. This also gives Zaun the chance to return if he accepts or if the two sides reach an agreement. He doesn't hit for a high average, home runs, or produce runs (in the sense of RBI, he gets on base which is about a zillion times more important in real person world) so arbitration may not be kind to his type. Shouse appears to be he more risky of the two, but we'll see.

Apparently no decision has been reached on Russ Springer, he too could bring the team an additional second round pick.

The deadline to tender players under team control is December 14th. The events of today sure don't look good for Dioner Navarro and Shawn Riggans.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:33:43 -0000

by Ed Andrieski - AP

Everyone's talking about John Lackey today. Should they be?

View full size photo »

Some things to read while launching a third party.

Thanks to Mark for filling in yesterday while I laid on the couch and drifted in and out of consciousness. My apologies for the late Mug today - I had hoped to be off my pain meds by now, but no such luck, so I'm having a hard time writing coherently. Also, as I was gathering news this morning, a delivery truck showed up with a whole room full of furniture from IKEA.

Before we go any further, you may want to just give up and find a new team or a new sport. Dave Begel of OnMilwaukee.com wants to make sure you know the Brewers are never going to compete (h/t BBTF). So abandon all hope, ye who remain here.

Meanwhile, for those of us who haven't jumped off a bridge, it's the time of year where we spend lots of time discussing players who may or may not even consider becoming a Brewer. Take John Lackey, for example.

Jorge Says No! wonders if the Brewers should be interested in signing him.
In-Between Hops has a visual representation of reasons they shouldn't.
When Buster Olney said the Brewers may have interest in Lackey, he also mentioned the Mariners as a candidate, prompting Lookout Landing to rip apart the logic involved in that statement.
Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are still interested in Lackey, too.
If/When Doug Melvin gets outbid for Lackey, Fire Doug Melvin has a statement for him to read. Melvin is already using similar language to complain about the draft.

There's also a flurry of discussion on catchers:

Just a few days after this vomit-inducer on Jason Kendall's likely return, new reports would suggest Kendall's return may not be so likely after all, and Jonathan Lucroy may be the leading candidate to take Kendall's place next season.
View From Bernie's Chalet is in favor of that move.
Project Prospect gave Lucroy a pretty nice review from the Arizona Fall League.
Big League Stew wonders why no one is searching for Jason Kendall's real age.

I'm planning on writing something more in-depth on Lucroy once my brain gets a little less fuzzy. In the meantime, here's a bunch of notes on Mike Cameron, too:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders if Cameron might be the second-best position player on the free agent market this offseason.
Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times thinks he'll end up with the Yankees.
Hot Foot hopes he doesn't end up back with the Mets.

A fair number of people are treating it as a foregone conclusion that Craig Counsell will either return to the Brewers next season or retire, but that may not be the case. Adam McCalvy thinks Counsell's surprising 2009 season should net him several offers, and may drive up the price for Whitefish Boy.

MLB Daily Dish has predictions for free agents #11-20 in their rankings, and thinks Rich Harden (ranked #12) may end up with the Brewers. They also have Felipe Lopez (ranked #14) signing with the Cubs.

Speaking of oft-injured pitchers who could get a phone call from Doug Melvin, FanHuddle thinks the Brewers could sign Brad Penny.

And, of course, as the Brewers look to spend their free agent dollars this offseason, one massive mistake overshadows all other deals: Jorge Says No! has a look at the logic and failure of the Jeff Suppan deal.

Finally, there's some continued reaction to the J.J. Hardy-Carlos Gomez deal:

Aaron Gleeman has a scouting report on Gomez from his former manager, Ron Gardenhire.
Real GM Baseball gave the Twins an A- for the deal, and the Brewers a C+.

On Monday, I mentioned having written a scouting report on Hardy for Nick Nelson of Nick's Twins Blog. In return, I asked for his scouting report on Gomez. Here it is:

"When it became clear that the Twins were working to move Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason, fans geared up for a marquis package in return. After all, Santana was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball; a two-time Cy Young Award winner with devastating stuff and command from the left side who still hadn't yet turned 29. What the Twins got was a package from the Mets that included three promising pitchers but was headlined by Carlos Gomez, a raw 22-year-old center fielder who general manager Bill Smith envisioned as a future anchor in the lineup.

Because of the circumstances surrounding his acquisition, Gomez became saddled with massive expectations amongst the Minnesota fan base. This might have been his undoing. By the time the Twins sent him to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy last week, a sizable portion of local fans was more than ready to see Gomez go. His lack of progress at the plate and his repeated mental lapses on the field -- one of which was on display during the ALDS when he cost the Twins a crucial run by overrunning second base in New York -- became too much for a lot of folks to tolerate.

As a person who greatly values defense and appreciates players who display enthusiasm and emotion on the field, I was always a big fan of Gomez and I'm sorry to see him go. There's no doubt that he was failing to make meaningful strides on the cognitive end, but his physical tools are undeniable and he was at least making slight adjustments at the plate this past season, with a decreased strikeout rate and increased walk rate. Granted, he was still poor in both those areas and his overall hitting numbers dropped regardless, but it's something to keep in mind, especially considering that he's still only 24 years old.

As far as defense goes, get ready for a treat. I know Mike Cameron did some nice things for the Brewers, but Gomez is better. I watched the great Torii Hunter in center field regularly for about a decade, and can confidently say that Gomez gets to balls that Hunter in his prime never would have dreamed of reaching. Even though he occasionally makes bad reads, Gomez can very quickly make up for a missed first step and has closing speed on line drives and fly balls like I've never seen before. He's an exquisite defensive center fielder and will make any fly ball heavy pitchers on the Brewers staff very happy.

That tremendous defensive proficiency means that Gomez doesn't have to progress all that much offensively in order to transform into a highly valuable player. While he has failed to post even a .300 OBP during his three major-league seasons thus far, Gomez posted a .339 OBP in the minors despite being young for every level and he may benefit from a return to the National League. His dreadful lack of discipline at the plate may prevent him from ever taking the next step and becoming an adequate offensive contributor, but I could certainly see him turning a corner and becoming a Franklin Gutierrez type player. Even if he doesn't, his defense makes him a worthwhile starter in center field and at worst he'll settle in as a quality fourth outfielder and pinch-running option.

For all the negatives that have surrounded Gomez's tenure in Minnesota, my lasting memory of him will not be the baserunning muff against the Yankees or one of the hundreds of outside breaking balls whiffed on for strike three. It will be the 12th inning of this season's Game 163 against the Tigers, when Alexi Casilla sneaked a grounder between second and first to drive in Gomez with the winning run. Gomez came sprinting home, arms outstretched like the wings of an airplane, and dove across home plate despite the fact that the play was nowhere near close. After recording the game-winning, playoff-clinching run, Gomez lept into the air with the excitement of a kid in little league. He may not be the brightest guy in the world, but Gomez plays the game with a lot of heart and he absolutely has his strengths.

Appreciate Gomez for what he is, and you'll love having him on your team. Just try to be patient with the mental mistakes and often clueless offensive approach."

Meanwhile, NL Gold Glove winners are expected to be announced today, and Stan Musial's Stance is projecting J.J. Hardy as the winner at shortstop. It seems unlikely, but I suppose it's possible.

Over 1000 innings and nearly 1000 appearances into his career, we're still trying to figure out how exactly Trevor Hoffman has managed to be so successful. Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at one of Hoffman's strengths: pinpoint control that allows him to keep the ball out of power zones to left-handed hitters.

Hitting during day games at Miller Park might get a little easier next season: The team has removed the ivy in the center field batters' eye and replaced it with glare-reducing black paint. They're also adding some black mesh around the scoreboard.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy, Zach Braddock and (to a lesser extent) Lorenzo Cain are having pretty nice seasons in the AFL, and the Peoria Javelinas are 16-8, the best record in the AFL. They lead their division by five games with eight to play. For more on their recent performances, check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.
FanGraphs has the Brewers' minor league season in review, with notes on one Brewer minor league graduate and four more prospects.
Project Prospect ranked Caleb Gindl as the 12th best corner outfield prospect in all of baseball.
Plunk Everyone noted that Adam Heether and Brendan Katin are still among the Venezuelan Winter League leaders in HBP. Heether hasn't appeared in a game since November 1, and I'm still not sure why.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed utilityman Mike McCoy off waivers from the Rockies.
Orioles: Claimed pitcher Armando Gabino off waivers from the Twins.
Rays: Exercised Carl Crawford's option for 2010, declined options on catcher Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse, and claimed pitcher Ramon Ramirez off waivers from the Reds.
Red Sox:Shortstop Nick Green and outfielder Joey Gathright both rejected outright assignments and will become free agents.
Reds: Outfielder Darnell McDonald rejected an outright assignment to the minors and will become a free agent.

If you're looking to sign Yorvit Torrealba to a deal this offseason (perhaps as a replacement for Jason Kendall), the baseline has been set: After the Rockies declined his $4 million option for next season, they reportedly offered him $4.5 million for two seasons, and he turned it down. I think the Brewers could easily beat that, and might welcome a 2 year$6-7 million deal for him. Brian McTaggart has a look at other available catchers.

Meanwhile, the Reds are reportedly looking to cut payroll into the $65-70 million range, which could be a challenge considering they owe $66 million to ten players for 2010. So, if you have a Red you're looking to acquire, you should get on the phone.

Looking for another buy-low pitching candidate? The Royals are reportedly monitoring the rehab of Runelvys Hernandez, who has pitched just four major league games since 2006.

We use WAR a lot to discuss the value of players, but are there cases where we're misusing it? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times looks at misuses of the stat. We've definitely been guilty of some in the comments here.

I shuddered while reading this note: Garrett Broshuis, a teammate of Giants prospect and accused murderer Angel Villalona, has a look at the circumstances surrounding Villalona's release from prison, which included a roughly $50,000 payment to the victim's family and their decision to ask for charges to be dropped.

On a happier note, Brewerfan.net has an interview with former Brewer Junior Spivey, who remains a Brewer fan long after moving on from the organization.

A couple of cool notes from the SBN Network:

SB Nation celebrated its sixth birthday this week.
Sky Kalkman, formerly of Beyond the Box Score, represented SBN well by winning Dugout Central's prediction contest.

I don't have any Brewer related birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to UW-Stevens Point alum Scott May, who appeared in five major league games and turns 48 today.

Oh, and I have a new career goal: Leveraging BCB's Twitter (@BrewCrewBall) to get a CBS TV deal.

Drink up.

Rays Exercise Carl Crawford's Option; Decline Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse's; Claim Ramon A. Ramirez Off Waivers from Reds

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:47:08 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Browse more photos »

Nothing unexpected on the options part. Although it will be interesting to see if they attempt to re-sign Zaun.

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Ramirez is a 27-year-old righty with the locks of Lincecum from the Cincinnati organization and 39.3 career innings in the Majors. That's a pretty small sample size to draw from, but during his time he posted a 4.6 FIP and 5.1 tRA. His home run per fly ball percentage is awfully high for a reliever (just over 11%) but those things fluctuate so much on a year-to-year basis for a reliever it's hard to know whether it will be an issue heading forward. He's done some starting and pen work throughout his career.

His fastball is the pitch he uses the most and it sits around 90 miles per hour. He backs that up with a change-up that sits seven-to-eight clicks lower and also has a slider. Again, a small sample to work with, but he showed a good tendency to miss bats with a 76.5 Contact% (average is about 81%) and avoid walks. His strikeout totals before hitting Triple-A were ridiculous, but in 127.3 innings as a starter/reliever, his Triple-A K/9 dropped to 5.51 this year.

Interestingly, he's thrown a little over 3,200 pitches at Triple-A since 2007 and his swinging strike rates were pretty impressive. Assuming this guy's change is legitimate - and it appears so - this could be more than simply fooling less talented batters, but as mentioned his whiff rates with the Reds was pretty solid too. He has one option year remaining and will probably shuffle between Durham and Tampa at least a time or two throughout the season.

His middle name begins with an A. So there's that.

Whiff rates from last year with the pitch totals thrown in (SSS):

Pitch	Thrown	Whiffs	Whiff%
CH	59	13	22
FF	116	8	6.9
SL	5	1	20

And now for his 2008 numbers (mostly as a starter), SSS again:

Pitch	Thrown	Whiffs	Whiff%
CH	187	26	13.9
FA	208	14	6.73
SL	18	2	11.1

That change might be something, huh?

Carl Crawford, Brian Shouse, Gregg Zaun, and Russ Springer Each Receive Type-B Status

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 20:33:38 -0000

Per Ed Price.

Crawford won't reach free agency, Zaun and Shouse have options which may be declined, and Springer is a true free agent. The questions now are whether any of them will be offered arbitration in order to gain a supplemental round compensation pick. Given his age (and potential salary) it seems rather unlikely Shouse gets offered. The same can probably be said for Springer. We'll see though.

Some more thoughts:

LaTroy Hawkins is a Type-A free agent. He will cost some team a first round pick if they decide (for whatever reason) they need him. Adrian Beltre is a Type-B and won't cost a pick. You know, I really cannot wait until someone like Boston focuses on adding Beltre for less than his market value and then doesn't have to give up a pick to get him. Please Phillies, win him for us.
Chan Ho Park, Kiko Calero, and Brandon Lyon are Type-B free agents.
Billy Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Octavio Dotel, Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and John Grabow are Type-As.
Jason Kendall, Jason Varitek, and Rod Barajas hold the same compensation type as Carl Crawford. No, really.

Tampa Bay Rays Face Several Decisions On Player Options; Carl Crawford, Gregg Zaun

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:38:01 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays will just say "yes" when it comes to Carl Crawford's $10 million dollar option for 2010.

Browse more photos »

One of the first orders of business to take care of during the hot stove league is squaring away options. So far 11 options have been accepted or declined since the end of the World Series with several more looming. Around these parts the Tampa Bay Rays have three options of their own to take care of.

Two of the three options seem like slam dunks. One is an obvious pick-up and one is a simple decline. The third option, however, is 50/50 and will probably determine the course of who is our catcher next season.

The Rays hold a $1.9 million dollar option (plus performance bonuses) on left handed specialist, Brian Shouse. Overall, his 5.17 FIP was far from impressive and his -0.1 WAR made him a negative value. However, it wasn't his fault that manager, Joe Maddon, had him face nearly as many righties (52 PA) as lefties (70 PA). Shouse did the job expected of him in 2009, and held left handed batters to a line of .224/.246/.373. Righties continued to crush him at a .356/.442/.622 clip. Nonetheless, Shouse just didn't pitch enough to justify picking up his nearly $2 million dollar option A left elbow strain sidelined him for 63 days, and while he made 45 appearances, he threw just 28 innings. With that being said, the $200k buyout is the likely course of action in this case.

The Rays are more likely to go with fellow side-winding lefty, Randy Choate, who was nearly as effective and will cost probably half of what Shouse will. There is always the possibility of signing former Ray (for 24 hours) and sabermetric wunderkind, R.J. Swindle on a minor league deal. The Rays could also go without a traditional lefty and turn to reverse split righties like Lance Cormier and newly acquired Jesse Chavez to serve as LOOGY's.

The next option is just as simple; the Rays will exercise the $10 million dollar option on left fielder and franchise player, Carl Crawford. This is a no-brainer and regardless of what CC's future holds, he will remain Rays' property for the time being. According to fangraphs, Crawford has made $13.1 million dollars in his career with the Rays. The nice $10 million raise is well overdue considering the fact that he as given the team $104.7 million dollars worth of production during his career.

CC is easily worth the $10 million dollar tag, but with some scouts saying Desmond Jennings could give you the same production right now for the league minimum, it doesn't look likely CC will finish his career with the Rays. Despite that fact, stranger things have happened, and both sides have expressed interest in a long term deal. Either way, the Crawford decision will be the biggest and most emotional decision in the franchise's history.

The final option because to leader of the Zaunbie nation, Gregg Zaun. Hailed as the veteran savior to our catching woes, Zaun didn't disappoint in the final two months of the season. Brining his veteran savvy and his reputed ball blocking ability, Zaun also swung a mighty stick in his near 100 plate apperances with the Rays. Small sample size rules apply, but Zaun hit .287/.323/.489 for the Rays. That earned him a 0.7 WAR or $3.2 million dollars in value. This means he has essentially covered his potential 2010 $2 million dollar option in production.

He is hardly the answer at catcher alone, and ZiPs has him projected for a .237/.335/.367 line in 2010. More likely, Zaun would be the left handed batter in a catcher platoon; picking up most of the at-bats against right handed batters. The problem with that is the Rays have a very similar situation with their other catcher Dioner Navarro. Navi is arb2 eligible and will make something in the neighborhood of ~$2 million dollars next season. I doubt the Rays will tie nearly $4 million dollars in two platoon players. There is also the question of Zaun playing 100-120 games behind the plate at 39. I could see the case for both sides of this option and honestly have no inclination of which way it will go. However, once the option is picked up or declined, we will have an answer to which way the Rays are intending to go.

Russ Springer's Added Value

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 12:00:14 -0000

One benefit to the Russ Springer deal that slipped my mind until now. Even if the Rays don't make the playoffs and Springer decides he doesn't like this Bay Area too much, if the Rays offer him arbitration and he declines, then they would net a sandwich pick for their efforts. Well, no team is going to give up a draft pick for Russ Springer, which is why the good news is that they won't have to. Remember how the Rays signed Brian Shouse last off-season, and the Brewers gained a compensatory pick that didn't affect the Rays in the least bit? That's the situation we'd be looking at with Springer. Yes, he's old, yes he's only a reliever, but the Type-B** distinction wouldn't affect his attractiveness to potential suitors.

Now, just to figure out whether he'd actually accept arbitration or not.

*The Brewers pick was number 47. That's right, the Brewers picked 47^th overall for losing Brian Shouse, a LOOGY, meanwhile the Nationals second round pick was number 50. Makes total sense, right?

**The ranking is courtesy of Eddie Bajek's projections.

Rays Have One Too Many Loogy's; Brian Shouse Or Randy Choate?

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

A day after a healthy bullpen discussion, it's time to discuss some more. No, I'm not talking about J.P. Howell being taken deep by the evil Dr. Langerhans. I said yesterday even the best bullpen will have a hiccup and that was a full burp. I'm talking about the unnecessary carrying of two members of a seven man bullpen that have exactly the same job. When you carry any specialist on your team, you are basically putting yourself down a man on the roster most nights. When you carry two you are severely limiting the manager's flexibility. Sure, the Rays have four or five relievers capable of going multiple innings, but carrying both Randy Choate and Brian Shouse is a bit redundant.

Maybe the game-tying single by Ichiro is too fresh in my mind, but I think at this point I'm ready to see Shouse go and hand the LOOGY key to Randy Choate. If you look at the overall numbers, there isn't even a question about who should stay or who should go.

	IP	ERA	FIP	K/9	HR/9
Shouse	16.2	5.4	5.89	5.4	2.16
Choate	17.1	2.6	3.88	7.79	1.04

However, we all know that sometimes the lefty specialist has suck it up in lop sided games and face right handed hitters that can easily skew some of the numbers. Here are the important numbers against left handed batters.

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	HR
Shouse	31	0.25	0.268	0.425	2
Choate	33	0.22	0.273	0.317	1

Choate has allowed less hits, but walked three lefties while Shouse has the higher BAA, but not walked any. Their BABIP's against LHB are similar with Shouse having a .267 and Choate at .276. The big difference is in opponents slugging where opposing hitters are slugging over .100 points higher against Shouse.

If you really wanted to make the argument that Shouse has the longer track record of success against lefties that's fine, but I'll take Choate in this one. The best case scenario would be Andrew Friedman finding a team looking for a LOOGY and flipping Shouse or Choate for a PTBNL or in Shouse's case maybe a team taking on his contract will do. Either way carrying two loogy's or loogi is similar to carrying a third catcher. Its fine in September, but when you are clawing your way back to the top in a pennant race all you are doing is leaving your gun one bullet shy of a full round.