SB Nation - Dustin McGowan

Won't You Please Let Me Go: Arbitration for Eligible Jays?

hugo — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:38:02 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

I'm not ready to let Jeremy Accardo walk away just yet (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

Following up on Tom's post, I figured I'd take a break from my too-long hiatus to put up my views on the arbitration-eligible Jays.

I don't see the point in offering Shawn Camp arbitration. He pitched well for the team last year but there are cheaper alternatives that have more upside. And he's not even a FA after 2010, as far as I know, so there's not really a reason to keep him around for the draft pick (assuming you think he could get there) either.

Jeremy Accardo, I would offer a contract. Obviously Cito doesn't like him, but he has talent and would be a mainstay in a number of MLB bullpens. I would try to trade him. If they can't get anything useful back, I'd see if he can make the big-league bullpen out of spring, which I think he can. If he doesn't make the team, I'd release him then out of fairness to Jeremy or trade him for whatever is out there. Cito might be what we call testa dura, but he does change his mind about players sometimes and an improved attitude (and, more importantly, improved control) on Jeremy's part could give him a new lease on his Jays career.

Jose Bautista has to be non-tendered, in my view. Even if the Jays want to keep him, I think they can non-tender him and retain him for less money. $4 million is way too much for a utility player (which is what he better be) on a non-contending team. I don't see a lot of teams knocking down the door to snatch him up and if someone wants to give him a starting job, more power to him.

Raul Chavez, I'm not sure it matters one way or the other but he did a nice job last season. I'm not a fan of what I consider to be over-catching, but the pitchers didn't seem to mind.

Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan, I think you absolutely have to offer deals. Neither is going to cost much more than the minimum and while there are huge long-term concerns for both (McGowan if he'll ever pitch again, Janssen if he'll ever be as good as he was), they do both have proven major league success and when you have the chance to get that for close to the minimum, you take it.

Shaun Marcum, Jason Frasor, and Brandon League to me are no-brainers, as is Brian Tallet. Tallet is right on the bubble of being a Type B free agent in 2010, is a useful lefty out of the pen, and shouldn't be too expensive.

Today's title from the incredible song "Age of Consent" by New Order, one of my favorite winter bands.
Stay warm.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Bluebird Banter Trade Deadline Roundtable, Part III

hugo — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:09:38 -0000

Welcome to Part III of our trade deadline roundtable. Parts I and II can be found here, and here. Again, our participants include Tom Dakers, JesseF, JohnnyG, and yours truly.

Hugo: So we've talked about Rolen, Doc, Scutaro, and Frasor and Downs. For who else would you like the Jays to test the market?

Tom: I'd assume they will listen to offers for Rios. Not sure what's going on with him, maybe it's the strain of not changing his daughter's diapers, but I hate the idea of selling low on someone. Trading a guy during his worst season is a sure way to get less than what he's worth. If you are GM and you trade him now and next year he has that 30 home run season we are figured he would have and that's it for your career.

I'd imagine Brian Tallet's trade value is as high as it ever would be, I'd like them to see what the market is there.

Jesse: I think it really depends on what they plan to do in 2010. If they don't think they'll be competitive, I would not mind seeing them shop Lyle Overbay, who would be a good platoon first baseman on a competitive NL team, where he could pinch-hit and fill in as a defensive replacement on days when he doesn't start. Tallet's value isn't going any higher than it is now.

JohnnyG: Overbay, Tallet, Rolen and Halladay are the most marketable players we have right now. Rios is possibly on the table but I would rather not see it happen for the same reasons as Tom outlined above (trading when value is down). Had you asked me earlier I would of said Litsch but with his surgery that kinda stops that one dead in it's tracks. I also would see what kinda return you could get for Richmond in a package as he has been a nice surprise, especially if he comes back strong (he is eligible to come off the DL today July 15th).

Hugo: I wouldn't mind seeing what's out there for Tallet - I'm not sure what the Jays could get, but he's not an awful option for someone looking to stabilize their rotation on the cheap - he's affordable, has pitched reasonably well, and can always go back to the bullpen if necessary, where he's been very effective in the past. Overbay wouldn't be a bad candidate either - I like his defense but you could move Lind to first and have Dopirak DH (or vice-versa) or if Brian's not ready, acquire a hitter some other way. Depending on what you got for Overbay, it could be a nice cost-effective move for the team. I hate the idea of moving Rios right now unless some team really ponies up for him - if you're convinced he's never going to get to the next level (which I'm not), then at least wait until he's on a hot streak or you can get a better deal. Personally I would prefer to keep Richmond - I doubt he'd fetch all that much as he's only had a half-season under his belt and doesn't have the pedigree, and even if he is squeezed out of the rotation next year, he'll be a great 6th starter and will probably make as many starts as the others anyway.

Hugo: All the pitching injuries this season have given the Jays a great chance to showcase their pitching depth. Some of the young pitchers like Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil have really shown what they can do. With Shaun Marcum set to return this season, Jesse Litsch looking to come back around the all-star break next season, and Dustin McGowan a continuing question-mark, it is questionable whether pitchers like Scott Richmond, David Purcey, and Brian Tallet, all of whom have pitched for the Jays this season, will have places in the Jays' rotation picture next season. That being the case, is it time to see what the Jays can get for these arms on the open market? Or would they be better served to hold onto these arms for contingency situations in the future?

Tom: Guess I already said it but I'd look to see if I could sell high on Tallet. Beyond that, let's see if Marcum can be effective again. Purcey, I get the feeling the team has written him off already, which I think is too bad, he does walk guys but he gets strikeouts too and we don't have enough pitchers that can do that, but then I think the team has killed off any trade value he might have had.

Jesse: Well, Litsch won't be back for a year now, and that's assuming his surgery goes well. As you said, McGowan is unfortunately an unknown. Hopefully Marcum can build up his arm-strength and get his velocity where it needs to be for him to continue his success, but we really can't be sure of that just yet, either. I would like to see the Jays hold onto their young pitchers . . . even if there is no place in the rotation for some of these guys right now, there is nothing wrong with letting them spend an additional year at AAA. If they can be dominant in the PCL through next year, you have to do something with them, though.

JohnnyG: Tallet and Richmond could be shopped. I like Purcey but I could live with him being sent in a package, granted if all 3 pitchers were sent out we better be getting another pitcher in return to help plug in. Even still I don't think you make a move this year with either Purcey or Richmond. Tallet's value is top notch at the moment and would be a smart move depending on the return. While I don't like Purcey's chances to make the team next year either I think he would be a good piece to have in the minors as a backup injury plan.

Tom: I really don't see Richmond having trade value yet, just two years removed from the Edmonton Cracker Cats, if I'm another team's GM I'd want more than one good season to convince me that a fellow that wasn't in anyone's system could be worth trading for.

Tom: Another question for you all: Is packaging Wells with Halladay an option?

Jesse: It's an option, but it's not one I'd love to consider. A bunch of folks have mentioned that Wells's contract is so crippling that it is almost worth it to move Halladay just to be rid of it, however, I think it would be very bad for the front office if they move their best (and most popular) player, just so they can get out of a contract that they signed in large part as a PR move to tell the fans they could get behind this team. What kind of message would ownership be sending to the fans?

JohnnyG: Non Option with me. I just don't see how trading Halladay to dump Wells helps the Jays. Yes we save a ton of money but you are going to have to overspend to bring in FA replacement players to get them to play for TO and in Canada (Sad but true). Not to mention trading Halladay doesn't exactly send the strongest signal to free agent's that we are ready to compete either so that is already working against us. Any return from Halladay would be so little with Wells attached to the trade that it would make me curl up under my desk into the fetal position and rock back and forth repeating "it's all a bad dream it's all a bad dream it's all a bad dream".

Hugo: I don't love the idea either, but I guess I wouldn't categorically rule it out - it would depend on whether Wells would negate the return from Halladay. For example, if the Jays were set to trade Doc to the Dodgers for a package centered around center-fielder Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers could somehow afford to add both Doc and Wells, I'd try to move Wells too, to fill the spot in center vacated by Kemp. Since LA would be getting Doc to go for the gusto, they wouldn't want to create a hole in the outfield so they might want Wells. I'd even take Pierre off their hands in return, I think (if they wanted), to help them with salary - Pierre would be a good, if expensive, 4th outfielder for the Jays and he wouldn't handcuff the team nearly as much financially as Wells would in the long term. The key would be moving Wells to a team that could really use him and so wouldn't look at him as a concession that would totally negate any return for Doc. Now, a deal like that would be very tough to work out and so it probably won't happen. But it could be worth at least exploring.

Tom: I guess it does depend on how the finance situation is for the Jays and Rogers. With out Mr. Rogers controlling the cheque book we might not be allowed to lose money every year.

JohnnyG: I am not so sure the Jays were actually losing money, Rogers can move revenues around especially from advertising. Rogers gets a ton of free advertising that saves Rogers Millions and Millions each year. Not too mention that own the stadium as well so thats a plus. And I am not sure the exact revenue gained from the stadium goes into the Jays Bottom Line. Last year I also read that the RedSox and Yankees posted loses, mainly because their sports networks reported income separate and issues with revenue being moved around. Accountants can play with the numbers (legally of course) to make sure certain tax requirements are met or avoided.

Hugo: It wouldn't shock me, either, if the Jays were not as unprofitable as they would like it to seem. The thing is that the Jays contribute to Rogers' other businesses (for example, free content for Sportsnet), and that value isn't reflected in the ledgers. And while it is a publicly-traded company, corporations shift assets and losses to subsidiaries all the time for reasons only they usually know.

JohnnyG: I have a question, Would any of you considering the Red Sox or the Yanks a realistic target for a Halladay trade? I know that they will inquire and it would be good to listen for nothing else but to maybe bump up the price, but at the end of the day if you were JP could you pull the trigger on a trade that sent Halladay to NYY for a package centered around Hughes? I ask because it seems more and more people with that opinion keep popping up (i.e new fanpost over at Daily Dish and multiple articles and comments over at MLBTradeRumors). I know most of the people commenting on it are Yanks fans but still. One laughable post implied Halladay would be a third starter behind both AJ and CC.

Hugo: Interesting question. While the optics of a trade within your division aren't good, trading Halladay essentially puts the Jays into rebuilding mode. If you raid a system like the Yankees or Red Sox of its best players, arguably not only do you improve your team, but you weaken the other team for the time when you plan on competing with them. That said, the Yankees would probably resign Doc - and I wouldn't be that surprised if 3 or so years from now, Halladay was still a better pitcher than Hughes so you'd need to get more than just Hughes, of course. But I believe that's true of any Doc trade - despite the turmoil in the rotation this year, offense is a much bigger problem for the Jays, right now and going forward, than pitching. Look at this season - holes in the rotation are filled with up-and-coming young pitchers with a likely future in the major leagues, while holes in the lineup are filled with AAAA and has-been hitters who have no place in the team's future. The truth is that if you don't trade Doc to the Yankees, they'll just go get another huge name free-agent pitcher anyway, if not Doc himself should he become a free agent. While he probably won't be quite as great as Doc, the Jays also won't be getting the Yankees' best young players. That said, I don't think the Yankees or Red Sox are going to make a serious offer for Doc. Both teams typically only overstretch themselves when they are bidding against one another, and in this case both have said they aren't interested.

AL East SB Nation Midseason Roundtable: The Trade Deadline

hugo — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 11:23:15 -0000

So, Sky Kalkman of the incredible site Beyond the Boxscore hosted a roundtable featuring bloggers from each SB Nation AL East blog: R.J. Anderson of D-Rays Bay (Tampa), Stacey Long of Camden Chat (Baltimore) , Randy Booth of Over the Monster (Boston), and Travis Goldman of Pinstripe Alley (New York), and Tom and I from your favourite Jays' site. Part I focuses on the trade deadline, while part II focuses on second-half storylines. Anyway, without further adeiu:

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which teams, under which circumstances, will be buyers over the next three weeks? How about sellers? If there are any undecideds, what will be the tipping point?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): I think the Rays could buy and sell. If someone comes along with an enticing offer for Carl Crawford or Scott Kazmir, I fully expect the Rays to listen. At the same time, seeing them acquire a cheap catcher wouldn't shock me either.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Historically, the Jays have been quiet in July in terms of deals - not buying or selling. This season could be somewhat different. Of course everyone has heard the Roy Halladay trade rumours but I have to say, I don't think it's particularly likely he gets dealt before next year's trade deadline, though you never know. Scott Rolen could be interesting to some teams, but the Jays would likely need to get back someone who could play third base next season. Lyle Overbay has slumped lately but he is still having a solid season and could be a useful piece. And if anyone needs a shortstop short-term, Marco Scutaro will be a free agent after this season and is having a very fine season on both sides of the ball. The Jays would be looking to get young position players back, particularly in the infield, as only Aaron Hill is signed after the 2010 season. They could also be looking for a young power hitter. The Jays would love to trade Vernon Wells, of course, but his deal makes that very difficult, even without the no-trade clause.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): There is no question that the Orioles should be sellers this year. They aren't going anywhere in the standings and they have a number of free agents to-be who could provide value to contending teams. Danys Baez has seen a career revival this year after missing all of last season. He's a FA next year and I can't imagine the O's bringing him back unless he takes a considerable pay cut. Aubrey Huff, also an upcoming FA, has dropped off after a great 2008 but still provides left handed power and has proven himself much more adequate at 1B than could have been imagined. Some O's fans want Aubrey to be re-signed (or at least offered arbitration after the year) because the Orioles don't have an immediate solution to replace him in 2010. Plus Huff has really endeared himself to fans and has publicly stated that he wants to remain an Oriole. He has regrets about leaving the Devil Rays just before they crossed the line into contending, and he's scared to miss that boat with the O's as well. Other possible trade pieces for the Orioles include George Sherrill, Jim Johnson, and Luke Scott. I think the O's may make a few trades, but Andy MacPhail is nothing if not methodical. He won't trade just because it seems like he should and he won't give away anything if he doesn't get substantial value in return. It seems that he prefers to operate in the winter when there is more flexibility, and he's very, very deliberate. But his patience did bring us Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, and more, so for now I'll defer to his wisdom.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): The Red Sox will be "buyers," if you even want to call them that. They're certainly not sellers as the team with the best team in the American League. Even though the Red Sox have been inconsistent, they may not necessarily need to trade for anything. They have a few guys like Jed Lowrie coming off the disabled list that will instantly shore up some holes (of course, that's if he stays healthy). So for another year under Theo Epstein, the Sox might not make a huge splash -- unlike last year, when that guy named Manny, I think, was traded.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): What holes will teams be looking to fill? What are the biggest holes they *SHOULD* be looking to fill but don't seem to be concerned about? Which holes from the first half can be plugged internally, perhaps by improvement the same player?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Catcher, corner outfield, pitching. John Jaso might be able to help out at catcher, and the other two are just for depth in the system.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): The Jays have had a huge hole at DH/LF for most of the year - Adam Lind has done a great job in one of those spots, but the other one has been occupied by the likes of Kevin Millar and David Dellucci. Now that Travis Snider is back from a back/shoulder injury, if he starts hitting well, he could be called up and fill the spot. The Jays' pitching depth is quite impressive, but they will be relying on young and inexperienced starters to fill 4/5 of the rotation so an arm that could add some stability there would also be good, though they might be content to let the rookies work through it. All of them have showed quite a bit of promise. Shortstop remains a huge concern long-term with Marco Scutaro set to become a free agent after the season and no one to replace him in the Jays' system. But a hole at SS is nothing new for the Jays.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): I have to think that the Orioles FO is looking for solutions to 3B and 1B for the immediate future, with SS a slightly more distant concern. Defensively I've had no complaints with Mora but his offense is simply atrocious. He has an option for next year but I will be shocked if it is picked up. There's no internal solution to the 3B issue and Mora isn't getting any better, so I hope that MacPhail has an external solution in mind. As for 1B, the O's only real hitting prospect, Brandon Snyder, could fill that role next year maybe, but it's no sure thing. For the rest of '09, Aubrey Huff will be fine. He's a 2nd half hitter and I'm confident he'll pick up the pace after the AS break.

The O's pitching at the MLB level is certainly sub-par, but I don't know anyone who considers it a "hole." We're all waiting patiently for Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and a number of other lesser prospects to come up to the bigs and save us. We could see Tillman as early as this year which excites me greatly.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): One thing they certainly do need is a defensive shortstop. Julio Lugo and Nick Green just ain't cutting it, but Jed Lowrie, when he comes off the DL, might, so who knows at this point if a trade is necessary. And the Sox might say they need a big bat to help out Ortiz, because let's face it: can he keep this up for this rest of the season? I'm not so sure. The Sox also might be looking for a third baseman because Mike Lowell has had his issues lately, and I don't think the Sox really want to have Kevin Youkilis over at third all the time. Other than that, I don't think the Sox will be going after much. They certainly don't need any pitchers, but could trade one (Takashi Saito namely).

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): As always, the Yankees will be buyers, and would be even if they weren't three back in the division. Pitching is the biggest weakness, and Cashman should feel free to address both the bullpen and the rotation. Who knew Wang and Pettitte would be this bad? Joba's not going deep enough, and Brian Bruney has been oscillating between injured and ineffective.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Who are the most popular trade targets for those holes? Any targets flying under the radar? Any targets your team is especially intrigued in? Any popular names they're backing away from? Any rumors you'd like to start?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Gregg Zaun, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, worst case: someone like Miguel Olivo.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): R.J., I'd love to see a trade with the Rays that nets the Rays Gregg Zaun, but something tells me it'd be a tough sell. Matt Wieters credits Zaun a lot with helping him in every aspect of being a ML catcher and if their mentor/mentee relationship is really that strong the O's might not want to break it up.

As for O's trade targets, I haven't heard anything specific. Everything centering around the Orioles, trade-wise, explores only the pieces the O's would give away, not what they'd get in return. Whoever it is, I'd imagine it would be mostly minor leaguers.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): All the shortstop names have dropped off the table so far (Omar Vizquel anyone?), but other names have surfaced for 3B like Garret Atkins. Don't color me impressed. The other names that could fill a gap are the Nats' Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn -- if the price is right.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Huston Street has been discussed. Ken Rosenthal (take it for what it's worth) says the Yanks are one of the main players for Halladay. I'd like to throw Cliff Lee's name into the mix. He's obviously not on Halladay's level, but is younger and would require significantly less in terms of prospects.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Which prospects and young major leaguers are most likely to change hands? Any that teams have deemed off-limits?

R.J. Anderson (DRaysBay): Basically the top three in the system: Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings, and Wade Davis. I'd probably throw Jeremy Hellickson in that group as well.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): You won't see Travis Snider or left-handed starter Brett Cecil traded. Actually, I doubt that the Jays are going to be willing to trade much in the way of prospects this July.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): The Orioles aren't currently in the business of trading prospects and young major leaguers. I'd imagine that once the pitching starts to take form, perhaps next year, MacPhail will start using his major league ready pieces to fill in the gaps. I haven't heard anything official about players being off limits, but it'll be a cold day in hell before Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, or Nick Markakis are traded.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): While Clay Buchholz's name comes up a lot, he's been untouchable for a few years now and I don't think that will change now. Michael Bowden, however, who is a poor-man's Buchholz, is almost as good and could be up for grabs. Daniel Bard, the fireballing reliever who is impressing scouts every day, could also be traded because let's face it: he's just a reliever. I don't think any, however, will be traded.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): The big four are Hughes, Joba, Austin Jackson and Jesus. For the Yanks to land Halladay, it would require at least two of them; however, Cashman has shown a reticence to deal 'home-grown' players, especially the upper tier ones, so I doubt they get Halladay. Two intriguing pitchers that could get dealt are Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): Without any trade-deadline moves, what has to happen for your team to win the division? How much more likely is your team to make the playoffs by plugging its holes or adding an impact player?

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): Two big keys: Jed Lowrie coming back to shortstop 100 percent healthy. If he can be healthy, he has shown in the past he can play some really good ball. The other key: Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been absolutely horrid this season. But if he could come off the disabled list and pitch like he did last season, you can wrap up the AL Pennant and put it in a box on Yawkey Way.

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): 1) Aliens attack and destroy Boston, 2) The Mets and Yankees switch divisions, 3) The entire Rays team comes down with mono except for Dioner Navarro, and 4) the Blue Jays trade the Orioles Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero for Felix Pie.

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): It's hard to imagine the confluence of events that would have to take place for such a thing to occur, but one thing is certain: the Toronto sports media would still find plenty to complain about.

Travis Goldman (Pinstripe Alley): Both Wang and Joba have to return to 2008 form (in Wang's case, pre-injury). Adding a good reliever would make it easier to move Hughes back to the rotation if Wang/Joba don't return to form.

Sky Kalkman (Moderator): For the teams probably out of the running, what acquisitions and decisions based on the 2010 and future seasons would you consider a "win"?

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): Great question. I'd consider any acquisition of a young position player under team control for the next several years a big win. Particularly at shortstop or third base, where the Jays have little organizational depth in the high minors (and prospects in the low minors who aren't exactly lighting it up at the moment). The Jays have a lot of pitching depth, but not all that many young pitchers with top-of-the-rotation potential. With one-time future-ace Dustin McGowan's career now in doubt, adding a young, top-of-the-rotation potential pitcher to replace him would, of course, be a coup. If you could fill both of those needs by trading Roy Halladay, I think you have to at least consider it.

Randy Booth (Over The Monster): I'll skip this...

Daniel Hugo (Bluebird Banter): And people ask me why I don't like Red Sox fans...

Stacey Long (Camden Chat): For the past decade or so, August and September have been hard for Orioles fans to watch. The annual swoon comes at us fast and before you know it the O's are finishing the season 4-32 or something almost as ridiculous. I'd consider it a win for the O's to continue to play hard down the stretch and avoid the collapse. Hopefully the young guys on the team still have enough to prove that they won't let themselves pack it in. Another win would be continual improvement by Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and even Adam Jones. And of course anything done to find help for the Orioles corner infield positions in 2010 and beyond is a bonus.

It's Hard to Say, It's Hard to Tell, I Always Thought that He Was Well: Who Is At Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries? (Part Two)

jessef — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:11:51 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Get well soon, Jesse. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Hey all, this is part two of our two-part series on who is at fault for the long-term injuries we've seen to four MLB-ready starters since the Spring of 2008. In part one we looked at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, our two pitchers recovering from labrum surgery. Today we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, who are recovering from ligament-replacement (Tommy John) surgery.

Marcum, who undertook surgery last September, is farther along in his rehabilitation and hopes to be back with the big club in August (though that seems like a stretch to me). Whether Marcum is ready to go in August or September, it would be a remarkable recovery either way. Let's just hope he doesn't put too much pressure on himself to get back too quickly (as I think he did last season).

Litsch, whose surgery took place this past June, is naturally much farther behind Marcum, but is hoping to return at some point in 2010. Everyone's timetable for Tommy John surgery recovery is different and rushing pitchers along is not necessarily the best move. Doctors may know more than we do, but the amount they don't know is greater than the amount they do know. Litsch saw Dr. James Andrews twice this season before it was determined that he'd need to go in for ligament-replacement, so no doctors know everything. B.J. Ryan also went in for Tommy John surgery early in the 2007 season and worked hard to get back early and we all know how well that worked.

Shaun Marcum, who was a shortstop and closer in college, was drafted in 2003. He finished up the season as a reliever in short-season A ball and was converted to a starter the next season, when he made 25 starts and pitched 148 1/3 innings, splitting time between A and A+ ball. He dominated at the AA (4.0 K/B-ratio) and AAA (5.0 K/BB-ratio) levels in 2005, earning himself a callup and pitching a total of 165 innings (157 minors, 8 majors). In 2006, he split time between the majors (78 1/3 IP) and minors (52 2/3 IP) for a total of 131 innings. He finally became a mainstay in the Jays rotation in 2007, pitching 159 innings (a pretty large increase from the previous season, but actually a few less than in 2005). In 2008, Marcum threw a total of 168 1/3 innings (most in the majors, 17 in the minors).

Focusing on 2008, Marcum got off to an excellent start (67 K and 22 BB in 78 2/3 IP through the end of May) but was sidelined in mid-June with elbow soreness related to a ligament strain. The Jays DLed him and after a quick rehab he re-entered the Jays rotation a month later. Unfortunately, it may have been too soon as the previously excellent (86 K and 27 BB in 98 2/3 IP before his injury) Marcum struggled mightily prior to being sent back down to the minors in late-August (23 K and 16 BB in 36 1/3 IP). Marcum was recalled in early-September and pitched well in two starts before being removed in the third inning on 16 September with an injury that would end up requiring Tommy John surgery.

Marcum was regularly throwing 100+ pitches early in 2008 (between 10 April and 12 May, he threw 100 pitches every start). As we said in part one, Gibbons rode his starters hard, even his young ones, and Marcum is a prime example of this. After returning from his injury, Marcum was throwing about 90-95 pitches per start prior to being sent down to AAA. When he came back up to the majors in September, his two starts prior to his injury were 103 and 106 pitches. Even though his pitch counts were lower late in the season, because he was ineffective and because of the summer heat, those lower pitches counts were probably at least as tiring as his regular 100-pitch starts earlier in the season. Add in that he was recovering from soreness and it's extremely likely.

When you consider that Marcum was recovering from soreness and was ineffective, I think it is certainly possible that if the Jays had shut him down a bit sooner (or if Cito had at least kept him on a tighter leash), the surgery would not have been necessary. It is also possible that his initial soreness was due to an increase in pitching workload from 2006-2007 (although he pitched more innings in 2005, those innings were at a lower level and his dominance probably put less strain on his arm because he would have laboured less against lower-quality hitters).

Jesse Litsch is a bit of a different case. Litsch, who we projected to accrue the most innings by a Blue Jays pitcher not nicknamed Doc this season, had piled up innings at both the minor league and major league levels since being drafted in 2005. Since 2006, Litsch's innings pitched totals: 158 2/3, 187 1/3, 196. That 2006-2007 jump is somewhat significant, but it is not exactly startling and Litsch did not seem to show any ill effects, as he finished the season pretty strongly. The innings increase from 2007-2008 is almost negligible.

Litsch didn't seem to lose much towards the end of last season striking out 31 (6.7 K/9) and walking 15 (3.2 BB/9) in 41 1/3 IP in September. Although that walk-rate is higher than where he was during the season (just 2.0 BB/9 for the full season), the strikeout rate is also much higher (5.1 K/9 for the full season). Litsch had actually been sent down to the minors for ineffectiveness about a month before Marcum but upon returning to the majors was fine. Cito did ride Litsch quite hard as well. After being recalled, Litsch threw at least 104 pitches each start and during one three-start span actually threw 337, including 112 directly after a 115-pitch start. Before being sent down, Litsch was throwing about 90 pitches per start (with a few starts over 100 including a 114-pitch start, but he only threw 92 the following start and had only thrown 80 in the previous one).

Whether Litsch's injury is related to being overworked towards the end of last season is probably inconclusive. He had shown himself to be capable of throwing lots of innings in previous years, but he was worked harder than ever in August and September of 2008. It is important that we keep this all in mind when we consider that Litsch's recovery in 2010 should not necessarily be done on Marcum's timetable. Marcum seems to be recovering quicker than almost any other starter I've ever heard of. We should not expect Litsch to be ready this time next season, though it would not surprise me if he was able to work some at the minor league level and possibly make a few starts in the majors late in the year. Let's keep it in mind that pitchers who have trouble returning from injuries or reinjure themselves aren't lazy -- in fact, they're probably the opposite of lazy, they're probably pushing themselves too hard.

It Wasn't Me That Made Him Fall, No, You Can't Blame Me At All: Who is at Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries?

jessef — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:57:49 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Get Well Soon, Casey! Good luck with your rehab start tonight. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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There has been a lot of discussion on the site recently about all of the pitching injuries the Blue Jays have sustained recently, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what could be causing them. In one of the comments to a recent fanpost, it was suggested that the Jays should start implementing "The Joba Rules" for some of the young arms, in order to keep their innings and pitch counts down. Will Carroll thinks that it may be J.P. Ricciardi's fault, not based on pitch counts or too many innings, but on some sort of "organizational philosophy," which I guess means that he doesn't automatically discount pitchers who have a non-zero probability of being hit by line drives or sneezing. Many folks have suggested that Brad Arnsberg or Cito Gaston are to blame as well.

In addition to nagging injuries, like Ricky Romero's strained oblique and Scott Richmond's shoulder tendinits, the Jays have seen several pitchers go down with long-term injuries in the last year or so. The serious injuries that Jays arms have sustained include both ligament-replacement or Tommy John surgery (Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum) and labrum fraying and tearing (Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen). Looking farther back, even Roy Halladay has lost his share of playing time to injury, having suffered from numerous ailments ranging from a "tired throwing arm" in 2004 to a broken leg to appendicitis and finally a pulled groin this season. In part one of this two-part series, we will look at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, who are recovering from shoulder injuries.

Well, each pitcher should really be evaluated separately on a case-by-case basis, so let's look at them individually. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is of the opinion that an increase in workload of 30 innings is generally an acceptable amount amongst young starting pitchers, but an increase of more than 30 innings from one year to the next could spell serious trouble. Verducci's success-rate of pitchers that he projects as injury risks (under 25 years old and an increase in workload of 30+ innings) is quite good, but only if you do not limit his injury projection to a pitcher's arm and shoulder. Personally, I don't put much stock in an increase in workload causing an hip injury or slipping on ice, but that's just me.

Since Verducci had projected Dustin McGowan as a potential injury concern, let's start with him:

McGowan's innings pitched jumped signifcantly from 2006 to 2007, increasing from a total of 111 1/3 IP to 181 2/3 IP. This is, of course, a drastic increase and should raise eyebrows, particularly for a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery before. McGowan did, however, finish the season quite strongly in '07. In August, McGowan struck out 30 and walked 9 over 32 1/3 innings. He didn't show any signs of trouble in September, either, striking out 41 and walking 13 over 40 1/3 innings. I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers the gem he pitched against the Red Sox, when he struck out nine and didn't walk any, a game in which he threw a then-career-high 122 pitches. He was pretty ineffective afterwards in his last two times out, including in his next start when he threw 112 pitches over just 4 1/3 innings.

A prevailing theory on pitcher abuse relates to the number of pitches thrown over three starts (the idea being that a pitcher is not fully recovered each time out) and McGowan threw 333, 326 and 311 pitches over different two-week spans in 2007. He laboured a bit less in 2008, though he did throw 125 pitches in one game and 323 pitches over a span of three starts. A lot of people criticized John Gibbons for leaving his starters in too long (except Ted Lillly) and I'd say that McGowan's injury probably has something to do with a mishandling on the current Kansas City Royals' bench coach's part. While McGowan seemed strong late in 2007, he has not exactly been a picture (or pitcher, if you will) of perfect health throughout his career and it would have been wiser to treat him with kid-gloves, particularly as his potentially excellent career seemed like it was just taking off. Even if the increase in workload did not cause the labrum injury, it was excessively risky.

Casey Janssen, who begins his rehab tonight, split time as a starter between the minors (very effective) and majors (somewhat effective) in 2006, pitching a total of 136 2/3 innings. In 2007, he was moved to the bullpen, where he pitched quite effectively (3.89 FIP), though he was probably helped by an unsustainable 5.3% HR/Flyball rate. In 2007, Janssen pitched 72 2/3 innings, a pretty significant reduction from his total in 2006, but he did make 70 appearances, 11th most in the American League. Janssen had an excellent spring training in 2008 and was all set to re-enter the starting rotation when it was announced that he had torn his labrum shortly before the season began.

As far as misuse goes, there are two main possible reasons for Janssen's injury -- he was either overworked in his 70 appearances in 2007 (unlikely in my opinion, as starting is more stressful) or he had trouble readjusting to a starting role after a season in the bullpen (more likely in my opinion). Now, even if the second case is true, I am not of the opinion that it should be blamed on Jays management -- there are precedents for career-starters spending some time in the bullpen and then being moved back into the rotation and I don't think the Jays treated this situation any differently than I would have. Pitchers get injured sometimes -- that's just part of being a pitcher, the human shoulder is not made to throw a baseball -- some things are unavoidable.

So keep an eye out for Part 2, in which we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, our pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Poll

Who do you think is responsible for all these pitching injuries?

J.P. Ricciard

34 votes

Cito Gaston

8 votes

John Gibbons

22 votes

Brad Arnsberg

23 votes

The individual pitchers, themselves

39 votes

Case-by-case basis (please elaborate in the comments section)

38 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

June, She'll Change Her Tune: Reflections on the Blue Jays

hugo — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:49:55 -0000

More photos » by Charles Dharapak - AP

Lyle Overbay is giving Toronto fans something to cheer about so far this season (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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As readers likely know, Tom and I alternate writing a monthly column on the great site Baseball Reflections. I thought I'd share my latest piece for the site -- although I'm not sure when exactly it'll be posted there in the next few days (update: it's up there now), it's relevant here today and since it's a bit of a slow day, here you go:

June Reflections on the Blue Jays:

When my partner in crime, Tom, penned his last epistle about our beloved azure corvidae, things were just going great in the Queen City. He mentioned how much he was enjoying the season thusfar, and confided that he wasn’t sure how long the Jays could keep it up. The answer to that soon came – not very long. Almost immediately after his missive, the Jays went into a tailspin in which they were swept in three straight series. The hits stopped falling in with runners on, the runners stopped getting on, the sliders weren’t sliding quite right, and before you could say "Touch ‘Em All Joe," pow! -- a 9-game losing streak. The bandwagon almost achieved escape velocity, what with all the people so suddenly jumping off of it. Folks decried that the Jays were pretenders who fattened up against weak teams but now the real Jays were showing themselves. The truth, though, is that the Jays are neither as fantastic as their April play would have you assume, nor as dismal as they were during that 9-game losing streak. Since that losing streak, the Jays are 12-10 (.545), and, well, that’s about the kind of team they are. Not great, not terrible, but a reasonably well-constructed team with strengths and weaknesses. Currently, the Jays sit 6 games over .500 (39-33), tied for the lead in the American League wild card race with the New York Yankees. That’s not such a bad place to be with the season nearing the halfway mark. And the Jays have managed that without significant contributions from Alex Rios (.774 OPS, he has picked it up of late) and Vernon Wells (.688 OPS, though he, too, has come on a bit recently).

Marco Scutaro continues to defy any rational expectations, reaching base at a stellar .397 clip and playing world-class defense at shortstop. Scott Rolen’s days of hitting 30+ home runs may be long gone, but Rolen, too, is playing incredible defense, providing highlight reel plays on an almost daily basis, and hitting .332/.396/.485 for good measure. Aaron Hill has fallen off a bit recently but is still doing the job on both sides of the ball, and Lyle Overbay is having a career year so far (.938 OPS) at the plate and playing his usual stellar defense. Adam Lind is having a breakout season with a .307/.381/.540 line, 22 doubles, and 14 home runs and he has been particularly hot in June.

You might have noticed a trend in the rundown of the Jays’ offensive contributors – reference to their stellar defense. The Jays have one of the best defenses in the league, and that’s gone a long way to helping the pitching staff cope with a medical report longer than an ER ward. Shaun Marcum, the second-best starter on a fantastic pitching staff last season – Tommy John surgery. Dustin McGowan, once one of the better-looking young arms in the league – labrum repair surgery. Jesse Litsch, two seasons of better than 120 ERA+ before his 24^th birthday – Tommy John Surgery. Casey Janssen, considered the number 4 starter headed into camp this year – continued problems stemming from 2008 labrum repair surgery. Ricky Romero – missed time due to an oblique strain. And most recently, Roy Halladay – strained groin. With all those injuries, it’s a wonder that the Jays’ starting corps have been able to hold things together, and their stellar defense deserves a lot of the credit.

That’s not to say that the Jays’ starters haven’t been equally deserving, if not more so, however. Rookie pitchers Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond – all have done a great job, as has long-reliever turned starter Brian Tallet. And while the Jays’ pen has been mercurial at times, particularly ex-closer B.J. Ryan, generally speaking they have gotten the job done, though the loss of closer Scott Downs is a big blow and the fact that he sprained his big toe running out of the batters box in an interleague game makes it sting all the more.

So, when you think Jays, don’t think "flash-in-the-pan April" or "showed-their-true-colours May." Think of a team that is contending with a ridiculous injury list and two AL East juggernauts and is still very much in this fight almost halfway through the season. And if you like to root for the little guy doing his best in trying circumstances, send a few cheers our way, eh?

We Ain't Sure Where You Stand / You Ain't Machines and You Ain't Land: Bad News on Dustin McGowan

hugo — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:23:48 -0000

Hi everyone. Hat tip to the fine folks at Drunk Jays Fans, some awful-sounding Dustin McGowan news. Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt interviewed Jays' Assistant GM Alex Anthopolous on Prime Time Sports and asked this question:

McCown: I need a thirty second answer to this, I know that’s probably not possible but, there’s been some speculation that things have not gone well with Dustin McGowan, and some are even speculating we may never see him again. Do you want to comment on that?

Anthopoulos: I can comment to say that it’s been a long road back, and it’s been up and down. He made a lot of progress, then he did have a little bit of a setback. I don’t know that we’re prepared to say that he’s never going to come back, I think we’re just going to continue to be hopeful, continue to work with him, and hopefully we’ll have more information at the end of the year.

That is about as pessimistic an answer as you're ever going to hear. Yes, it's true that the Jays have a lot of potential starters, but McGowan is a difficult one to replace as he definitely showed the upside to be a 1-2 type starter. The combination of strikeouts and groundballs and his ability to go deep into games, not to mention those sweet mutton chop sideburns, all made him look like a guy you not only count on to be in the rotation, but, if things go right, build a team around.

For McGowan, it would be awful if he's unable to return. He's already overcome Tommy John and a diabetes diagnosis that significantly affected his pitching, broke into the majors in a big way, and now this.

It's possible Anthopolous just used a poor choice of words, but in my experience he typically chooses his words very carefully. I would've expected his answer to be "oh yeah, he'll definitely be back, it's just a question of when, will it be this season or at some point next year?" Of course, you never know - things can always change, so like the Jays, all we can do is hope for the best and send our best thoughts Dustin's way.

Today's title from the best Modest Mouse song (there's no argument, so don' t even argue), "Never-Ending Math Equation" Unbelievably fitting.

Draft Day Three Open Thread

Charlie — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:05:01 -0000

As if it weren't already perfectly clear, Neal Huntington could not care less what you think. Gtrain, in the first of yesterday's two massively informative draft comment threads, joked that Huntington "may have his own version of Moneyball one day called I-Do-What-I-@)#($*ing-Want-Ball." After managing to alienate even hardcore fans like me with a terrible first day of the draft, the Pirates did exactly what they said they would and picked a ridiculous number of high-upside players on the second day. They'll have trouble signing a lot of them, but wow--they went from having a poor draft to a pretty good one, and they did it by making all their best picks on a day that will get far less attention than the day they bombed.

This draft reminds me a little of the 2000 draft, a draft that also lacked upside at the top. After Adrian Gonzalez, who was the first overall pick, there was only one really good major leaguer who came out of the first 25 picks: Chase Utley, who went 15th. (Adam Wainwright, Dustin McGowan and Kelly Johnson went near the end of the round; the Pirates, with their pick, took Sean Burnett 19th.) The Bucs were able to get a lot from the draft, though, because they picked Chris Young, Jose Bautista, Nate McLouth and Ian Snell in the late rounds. Young and McLouth, specifically, were signed to large bonuses to lure them away from Princeton and the University of Michigan, respectively.

This year may turn out to be like the Pirates' 2000 draft. There might be an Utley or two who the Pirates passed on with the fourth overall pick, but there will be lots of busts too. So rather than sign a player in the first round and pay him $7 million, the Bucs drafted Tony Sanchez, who's likely to be far cheaper, and took a ton of potential McLouths and Youngs later.

Huntington explains his thought process:

The draft teaches us many lessons, and one lessons is how ecstatic 19 clubs were from 1998-2006 when they selected a high school pitcher in the first 10 selections in the draft. Of those 19 clubs, only four have seen those high hopes turn into a major league starting pitcher. One other lesson the draft teaches us is that major league players come from all portions of the draft and, often times, the best major leaguer was not taken in the first round. As a result, we went with the player in the first round we believed had the best combination of attributes, and that allowed us to execute a draft strategy to attempt to add the deepest and most talented draft class in Pirates history.

Last year, we committed over $6 million to one player. If Stephen Strasburg or Dustin Ackley had slipped, we would have likely altered our overall approach to the draft and committed greater resources to either of them. Ultimately, we did not believe there was the blue chip in which to invest a very large percentage of our significant resources and, instead, chose to diversify our portfolio in an effort to find the highest possible return.

This does make a lot of sense. If the Pirates ponied up a huge bonus to sign a high school pitcher like Matt Purke, then there's a chance he could turn into the next Josh Beckett. There's also a much better chance he could become the next Mike Stodolka or Matt Wheatland or Mark Phillips or Joe Torres, all high school pitchers who were selected in the first ten picks of the 2000 draft. By signing Sanchez for $2 million or so and spreading the rest of the $5 million or so they would've paid Purke to lots of players, the Pirates are hedging their bets and, in a draft like this that has few sure things, probably increasing the likelihood of getting a good return. They picked about a zillion high school pitchers, including many who will cost a fair amount to sign because they have commitments to college programs.

Anyway, look out for the following players from Day 2 of the Pirates' draft:

6. HS pitcher Zachary von Rosenberg, who goes to Zachary High School in Zachary, Louisiana (and no, I'm not making that up). Here's video. As I noted yesterday, Baseball America ranked Rosenberg the 41st-best draft prospect.

7. HS pitcher Trent Stevenson, one of the top prospects from Arizona. Here's some video.

8. HS pitcher Colton Cain, seen here. Cain was widely seen as a top draft prospect but has a strong commitment to the University of Texas:

But it's Cain's pitching talent that puts him in the elite category of prospects. Last fall, Baseball America rated him 44th among high school prospects and 81st overall.

"For an 18-year-old to have a good arm like that, who's big and strong, that's what everybody is looking for," said one American League scout. "Especially from a lefthander"...

The amount of money offered will determine the direction Cain chooses.

"It's got to be enough to pull me away from Texas," he said, "because I like Texas a lot."

12. Stanford pitcher Jeffrey Inman. Baseball America:

Inman had a late-season shoulder injury and a 2-6, 6.11 record this year that caused teams to have no idea what the real Inman is. He’s had success in the past, helping pitch the Cardinal to Omaha last season while going 7-2, 4.27. On balance, though, Inman has been more about potential than performance since his days as a high-rated prep pitcher in Bakersfield. Maybe this is a spot where the Pirates spend some of the money they saved by drafting Tony Sanchez at No. 4 overall.

16. Florida outfielder Matt den Dekker, seen here:

The Sporting News:

One AL East area scout said the 6-1, 205-pound centerfielder is a gamer and has good range and moves fluidly and possesses a plus arm. He also pitches for the Gators. He has good power to all fields and is a plus runner.

"He's just a little stiff at the plate," the scout said. "It's like he's almost thinking a little too much up there."

Nonetheless, a plus arm in centerfield should make den Dekker an easy second rounder, if not a late compensation round pick.

Baseball America ranked den Dekker their 94th best draft prospect overall.

29. HS pitcher Michael Heller. PG CrossChecker:

Michael is one of the best two way players in the nation and has signed with the University of Florida. Looking at the number of scouts that have been attending his outings so far this year on the mound, the thought of him ever stepping foot on the Gator campus, is getting smaller and smaller.

Through three starts on the hill this year, Heller has shown more 'pitchablility' then in the past. In his first start, a pre-season game against a strong Mariner High School (Cape Coral, FL) squad, Heller didn't disappoint the more then 40 scouts that were in attendance, as his first pitch was a fastball that registered at 94mph. Through out his three innings he continued to pitch at 93-94 while topping at 97mph. What was more interesting then in the past was that Heller was able to maintain his velocity on all his pitches, including a slider that showed better pace and greater depth.

If you can't get enough, B.U.C.C.O. Fans has a good roundup of Day Two here. Frequent BD commenter UtesFan89 also did a good job here, and John Perrotto here.

Bluebird Banter Answers Dallas Morning News' Questions About the Blue Jays

hugo — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 18:00:20 -0000

Hi everyone. Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News asked me a few questions about the Jays in anticipation of the upcoming series with the Texas Rangers . Here are his questions and my responses, for our discussion.

Dallas Morning News: The Blue Jays lost 9 in a row in late May, but have rebounded. What happened during that losing streak and why are they having better success now?

Hugo : Great question. As you can imagine, many things had to go wrong for the Jays to lose 9 in a row. A few starters in the Jays' young rotation had bad starts back-to-back, the usually reliable bullpen had an awful stretch, the hitting suddenly went cold, and all semblance of hitting with runners in scoring position disappeared. The Jays also had a healthy dose of bad luck during that run (Roy Halladay certainly didn't do anything not to win his two starts during the streak. The truth is that the Jays are probably not as great as they were playing in April and early May and certainly not as bad as they were playing during that awful stretch. They are a team reliant on defense, young starting pitching after Halladay, and a collection of above-average, if not spectacular, hitters.

DMN: Second baseman Aaron Hill has surprised some folks this season. What’s the story with his season and all-around game?

Hugo: Even after Hill had a great 2007 as a 25-year old second baseman, Hill flew under the radar this season after a nightmare series of post-concussion symptoms ended his 2008, the year that was supposed to be Hill's breakout. But the Jays have always had high hopes for the former first-round draft pick - J.P. Ricciardi was calling him "our Dustin Pedroia " before 2009 even started, and the Jays wisely locked Hill up to a long-term deal before the 2008 season so he'll be a Jay for a long time. Hill may not keep up the power numbers he's shown early this season, but he's likely to be well above average at second with both the glove and the bat, making him quite a valuable player, if not a superstar.

DMN: How is reliever BJ Ryan doing and is he back to his old self? How is the team using him?

Hugo: After a fantastic first season as a Jay, Ryan missed almost all of 2007 to Tommy John surgery. B.J. returned early in 2008 and had a pretty good season, but things didn't seem right from the beginning of 2009, a season where many expected BJ to get back to his pre-TJ days. Ryan's mechanical problems forced him to opt out of the World Baseball Classic, and his velocity and command problems dogged him throughout the spring. Ryan broke camp as the closer, but it didn't last as he had some awful appearances and was eventually placed on the disabled list with what my co-blogger ungenerously refers to as CPS or "crappy pitching syndrome." Ryan found the closer job not waiting for him on his return and has mostly been relegated to mopup work as he seeks to get his form back. His most recent appearance was a good one so he is trending upward, but Ryan will likely have to have another good appearance or two before he is voluntarily placed in any high-leverage situations.

Scott Downs has done a very good job as closer in Ryan's stead, but it's no accident that the Jays' usually steady bullpen began to falter in Ryan's absence. Without him, each other pitcher was pressed a bit and cracks started to appear over a little time. An effective Ryan will go a long way to returning the Jays' bullpen to the effectiveness it displayed in 2008.

DMN: Does Toronto have enough to stay with the Yankees and Red Sox (and even Tampa Bay) in the AL East?

Hugo : That's a tough question. I don't think there's any doubt that the Jays can't match the talent of the Yankees and the Red Sox on paper. That's especially true in the absence of Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan , two major parts of Toronto's long-term pitching puzzle who are both out for most, if not all, 2009 as they recover from arm surgery. That said, it's not as though the Yankees or the Sox have perfect teams with no concerns - a few injuries here or there can always turn the tide one way or the other. I wouldn't necessarily expect Toronto to be atop the division when the season ends, but I also never expected them to be a 70-win team in 2009, as many writers predicted before the season started. I think they are a good team but a lot of things still have to break in their favour for them to legitimately contend throughout the length of the season.

DMN: Just to calm any Rangers fans, there’s no chance Roy Halladay pitches on short rest in this series, right? Talk about what makes him so impressive.

Hugo : Here's something I never get tired of talking about. Doc combines fantastic stuff with a tireless work ethic, borderline monomaniacal intensity, and an uncharacteristic intelligence for the game. Even among the best pitchers in the league, it's rare to find all four of those things together in a pitcher who is still very much in his prime, and that's what makes Halladay so tough to beat. Few pitchers can combine the kind of movement that Doc has on all his pitches with his pinpoint control and command. Whatever happens with Doc's future, it has been, and continues to be, such a privilege to watch him pitch every five days.

As for whether he will pitch on short rest, I don't want to let Rangers fans off the hook, so I'll just say, hey, he only needed 97 pitches to go the full nine innings against the Royals on Sunday, so......

DMN: Give us a quick scouting report on the rest of the Blue Jays rotation, since Rangers fans will see all four of them this week.

Hugo: Sure. Monday's starter, Casey Janssen , showed flashes as a starter back in 2006 before he turned into a mainstay in Toronto's bullpen in 2007. Unfortunately for the former UCLA pitcher, Janssen missed all of 2008 with a torn labrum and that's a heck of a tough injury from which to return. Janssen has made three starts as a Jay this season and did pretty well in the first two of them before really struggling in his last outing against the Angels . He won't strike out many but uses a number of pitches and good command to induce lots of ground balls without walking many hitters. He doesn't have a real out pitch and so you will sometimes see him get ahead of hitters but then struggle to put them away.

Tuesday's pitcher is Brian Tallet and he is an interesting one. A low-cost pickup for the Jays several years ago, he has filled mop-up, long reliever, and situational lefty roles in the Jays bullpen before being promoted to the starting rotation out of necessity in 2009. Tallet has done a very nice job so far as a starter. He's basically a three-pitch pitcher who doesn't overpower anyone but he has pretty good movement and changes speeds pretty well. We in the Jays' community are divided as to how long he can keep up his effectiveness, but it didn't shock me to see him emerge as a quality starting option.

On Wednesday, the Rangers will see former first-round draft pick Ricky Romero . Romero was slow to move through the Jays system due to some injury problems, but he made the rotation out of the spring in 2009 and looked great through his first three starts before a sneeze-related injury sidelined him for a while. The East L.A. kid made good didn't look as sharp upon his initial return from the disabled list, but his most recent start was a very good one. I would describe Romero as intelligent and poised on the mound. He has a good fastball, particularly for a lefthander, and compliments it with a plus changeup and quality breaking pitches as well. He has had some trouble with the home run this season and that's what he has to watch out for at the moment.

Finally, on Thursday, your readers will see Scott Richmond pitch. A fascinating case, after graduating high school, Richmond worked on the docks of his native Vancouver for 3 years before attending Oklahoma State University. When he still went undrafted, Richmond pitched for three more seasons for the Edmonton Cracker Cats of the Independent Northern League before the Jays took a chance on him last season. Now a 29-year old rookie, Richmond has a decent fastball and a pretty good slider, but I wouldn't characterize his stuff as extraordinary. That said, he has done a pretty good job for the Jays this season, showing a decent ability to miss opposing bats and to limit self-inflicted damage. His most recent start was a rough one, so Richmond will be looking to bounce back. A righthanded pitcher, Richmond really struggles against lefty hitting and so his success is often determined by how well he can limit the damage done by the portsiders.