SB Nation - Ryan Roberts

2010 in Arizona: Second-base

Jim McLennan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:07:42 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

In this scene, taken from the upcoming FOX special, When Herbivores Attack, Diamondbacks' second-baseman Ryan Roberts nearly avoids being gored by an angry panda, after accientally coming between it and the buffet-table. Miggy stands ready to run in with the Sedona red cape.

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Somewhat later than usual, the earlier part of the day having been spent in putting together our early Christmas present to each other: a new TV set. I think we have the basics sorted now: it's attached to a stand, sitting on a table and the cable-box has been reconnected, but further action on that front has been suspended pending the arrival of the HDMI cables. Those should have arrived today, but instead we got a terse note from the Post Office stating, "Dogs Out". They clearly do not know our canines.

Anyway, no point engaging in further cabliciousness until those arrive, so we just watched the first thing on the new box: let the record show that it was The Breakfast Club, which I had never actually seen. American high-school angst: not normally my thing, but this was pretty good, sharply written and well-acted, so better than I expected. And speaking of a disparate group of individuals, thrown together by fate for a common purpose, brings me neatly to second-base in Arizona. After the jump, we'll review what happened last season, and take a look at what options we might have at the spot for the coming year.

2009 Performance
1. Felipe Lopez - 80 starts .301/.364/.412
2. Ryan Roberts - 45 starts .279/.367/.416
3. Augie Ojeda - 27 starts .246/.340/.345
4. Rusty Ryal - 10 starts .271/.353/.593

It was generally thought fairly certain, even before Opening Day, that Felipe Lopez would be, at most, a one-season wonder at the position. If he was as good as he had been with the Cardinals, he'd be too expensive for us to re-sign as a free agent; if he was as bad as his time in Washington, we wouldn't want to re-sign him. In the end, he did pretty well for the Diamondbacks, but was traded to the Brewers just after the All-Star break, for prospects Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes [Lopez did even better in Milwaukee, batting .320, and as the best-hitting 2B on the free-agent market, looks set for a good payday as a result].

Following his departure, it was mostly Roberts who took over in the role of heavily-tattooed second-baseman. He had been the 25th man named to the roster in spring, but good work with both the glove and bat pushed him into contention, and he took full advantage of the chance provided by Lopez's departure. After that point, Roberts hit a solid .290/.374/.465, for a solid .839 OPS in the second-half, giving himself a solid chance to be the everyday starter in 2010. Defensive help was provided by the always-reliable Ojeda, and August call-up Ryal made a good impression in his major-league debut.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Orlando Hudson	32	$8m	109
Felipe Lopez	29	$3.5m	111
Ronnie Belliard	34	$1.9m	105
Adam Kennedy	34	$400k	101
Kelly Johnson	28	$2.825m	83
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: medium.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Ryan Roberts .250/.333/.379
Tony Abreu .285/.330/.416
Augie Ojeda .250/.332/.336

The team does have a variety of options at second-base, though none of them are perhaps exactly sure-fire things. Roberts did play well when he replaced Lopez, but does he have what it takes to be an Opening Day starter for the first time in his career? One note of hope is that his good post-ASB performance was not BABIP inflated: his number there, at .313, was actuallylower than his pre-break BABIP of .333, even though hit batting average was 33 points better. However, we probably shouldn't expect Roberts to sustain the power surge which saw him hit seven homers in 200 at-bats during the second-half.

In the event of Roberts faltering, waiting in the wings will be Abreu, who came over from Los Angeles in the trade for Jon Garland. He spent most of the year in Triple-A with Albequerque, having missed the entire 2008 season with a groin injury. However, he continued where he left off, hitting .353 in 54 games, almost the same numbers Abreu posted in 2007 at Triple-A (.355 in 54 games), so seems to have fully recovered. [Though it should be noted, Albuquerque, where he played 2009, is higher than both Reno and Denver] It seems likely Abreu is being groomed to be Arizona's second-baseman of the future; however, at an age of only 25, if 2010 was not the start of his full-time incumbency, it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Abreu's role may depend on whether the Diamondbacks pick up Kelly Johnson. Nick Piecoro has confirmed that Arizona are interested in the former Braves' starter, who was recently non-tendered by Atlanta. At about this time last year, there had been discussions of a Conor Jackson for Johnson swap: given neither player exactly had a 2009 they will want to remember, it's probably for the best those talks came to nothing, but it does show Johnson has been on the team's radar for a bit. If this were to come to fruition, Piecoro reckons that it would lead to the trading away of Augie Ojeda, with Abreu being used as the infield backup instead.

However, if the team doesn't get Johnson, I don't get the feeling the Diamondbacks will be too concerned. The team should still be relatively happy to go into 2010, with Roberts as the starter and Abreu in the wings, and see how things shake out as the year progresses.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VII: Base-running

Jim McLennan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:14 -0000

by Rick Scuteri - AP

Upton is caught stealing third base Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche during a game on July 23.

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After a couple of weeks off, we get to the final part of the 2009 season review, while we look at the Diamondbacks' performance on the base-paths. This doesn't just cover the straight stolen-base, though this is the most immediately obvious component of base-running. There's also factors like going from first to third on a single: not quite as flashy as the swiped bag, but still an extra 90 feet you otherwise wouldn't have.

After the jump, we'll break down a few numbers, and see where the Arizona Diamondbacks stacked up against the rest of their National League rivals. For each category, we'll also take a look at the individual numbers, and see who the heroes and villains were for the team. But let's start, as you might expect, with a nice table of data:

Tm	SB	CS	SB%	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%
ARI	102	40	72%	22	60	131	42%
ATL	58	26	69%	15	50	121	38%
CHC	56	34	62%	11	46	120	36%
CIN	96	40	71%	18	63	125	41%
COL	106	55	66%	26	75	186	47%
FLA	75	35	68%	17	62	172	38%
HOU	113	44	72%	9	47	118	38%
LAD	116	48	71%	26	56	154	44%
MIL	68	37	65%	14	47	154	34%
NYM	122	44	73%	16	69	169	40%
PHI	119	28	81%	21	44	122	39%
PIT	90	32	74%	18	64	136	38%
SDP	82	29	74%	20	52	119	38%
SFG	78	28	74%	11	47	159	38%
STL	75	31	71%	19	54	138	44%
WSN	73	40	65%	17	45	131	39%
LgAvg	89	37	71%	18	55	141	39%

Stolen bases
Arizona stole a total of 102 bases, and were caught stealing forty times - the former number is good enough for sixth in the league, and their success rate of 72% was fractionally better than NL average (71%). However, this conceals a significant difference with regard to stealing second- and third-base. For the former, we had a solid 74% success-rate (NL avg: 71%), but when trying to take third, we were only 18-for-28, a 64% rate. League average, perhaps surprisingly, increased to 73% - I say surprisingly, because it's generally thought of as a harder job, because the catcher has less distance to cover with his throw to third.

Chris Young was, far and away, the best on the team at taking third, being successful on six out of seven attempts. He was actually less successful when taking second, where he was safe on only five of eight attempts. Gerardo Parra showed reversed numbers too, with more good steals of third (3-of-4) than second (2-of-8) by him. Conversely, from the 2009 numbers, Mark Reynolds should be nailed to second-base: while he was great at reaching it from first (22-5, for a 81% rate), he failed on four out of six attempt to get from there to third. Justin Upton had the best numbers on the team going to second, of anyone with more than two attempts, at 84%.

And for the record, the Diamondbacks were credited with one attempted steal of home. By Kevin Mulvey. Though as you can probably guess, describing it as a "steal" is a bit generous: our pitcher was caught day-dreaming at third-base against the Giants on September 30th, got himself picked off and involved in a brief rundown before retreating, sheepishly, to the dugout.

Pickoffs
Definitely an area in which the team needs to improve, though we're hardly alone in the division - four of the top five teams for having pickoffs inflicted on them, play in the NL West. The Diamondbacks' total of 22 trailed only the Dodgers and Rockies (tied with 26), and straight pickoffs - rather than those where the runner was caught trying to steal - were responsible for the bulk of those in Arizona, fourteen. There aren't any numbers available to show how these break down by base: while I've a feeling we were particular bad at getting ourselves picked off second, this is only my anecdotal hunch.

No doubt who should be looking to work on this in the off-season. Mark Reynolds led the team with seven pickoffs, more than twice as much as anyone else, and good enough for third in the entire National League (trailing Nyjer Morgan and an ex-Diamondbacks, Emilio Bonifacio, who had nine and eight respectively). Five of Reynolds' erasures were straight pickoffs, and two were in the process of stealing a base. Young and Upton were next, albeit all the way back on three, and that's probably no surprise: age and experience are likely significant factors here.

Taking the extra base
We should look at this in conjuction with the total number of outs made on the basepaths: this might be while trying to advance on a sacrifice fly, a passed ball/wild-pitch or doubled-off on a line-drive [basically, any out not covered in the two sections above]. In total, the team took 131 bases and made 60 outs, a ratio of 2.18, which is below the league average, 2.56. However, the team were more aggressive than most teams, taking an extra base e.g. going from first-to-third on a single, 42% of the time, good for fourth in the National League.

I was astonished to find that the man who led the team in stolen bases, Mark Reynolds, was actually among the most conservative on the team, with an extra base percentage of only 30%. Some of this may be small sample-size - we are discussing only 43 opportunities over the entire season - but I'd certainly not have expected him to be below Miguel Montero (a healthy 44%). Best on the team was Ryan Roberts, who posted a 56% rate in 34 chances. Upton and Young are also looking good, at 50% and 49%. In limited playing-time, Conor Jackson was 5-of-7: be interesting to see how the Dominican Winter League SB leader performs on the base-paths in 2010.

We can break the overal "extra base" number down, into the three situations where taking an extra base is possible: on first when a single is hit (we'll call this 1S); on first when a double is hit (1D); and on second when a single is hit (2S). In all other situations, the batter should score in almost every circumstance. Now, this doesn't take into account location of the hit - some singles will be a great deal easier to score from second on than others [such as when Upton hits a single 420 feet off the wall...], but over the course of a season, things should tend to even out.

Here are the percentages for Arizona compared to NL average. 1S: 29%/27%. 1D: 46%/44%. 2S: 64%/58%. This does tend to suggest that we were more aggressive than most in each situation, but particularly when going from second to home on a single. Given the youth of our roster, this would seem to make logical sense. However, I am not going to split these down into individual performances, because we are really getting down to the level where random chance makes it hard to draw any conclusions: no-one had more than 26 chances in any of the categories.

EqBRR
This stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a Baseball Prospectus stat that "measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." It's the sum of various components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR), each reflecting a different aspect of the base-running game.

All told, the team ranked 21st in the majors, with an EqBRR of -6.8 runs. Most of this came from EqSBR, which was responsible for -6.36 of those runs. Breaking the numbers down to individuals, the top three were Upton (+3.2), Roberts (+1.7) and Jackson (+1.7) - again, be interesting to see how the last-named holds up, if he can come back fully healthy in 2010. Down at the other end of the spectrum, the worst trio were Chris Young (-2.1), Chris Snyder (-2.3) and Mark Reynolds, who was rated at -4.5, no doubt in part because of all the pickoffs.

Overall
From a statistical point of view, base-running is a relatively minor component of the game, compared to pitching or hitting. But it's also one over which a team has much more control - while pure speed is a talent, the ability to use it is a skill which can be taught. However, above and beyond the direct impact of good (or bad) base-running, I tend to think it can also have a contribution to "intangibles." Successful fundamental baseball provides a psychological boost, both to the player responsible and their team-mates, just as it does to us as fans watching; conversely, few things can suck the wind out of your sails worse than a blunder between the bags.

As such, while some aspects of the team's work in 2009 were credible, there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the pick-off department. Aggressive (but not to the point of psychotic) base-running should continue, but I'd like to see even more use being made of those fresh legs. Young, Reynolds and Upton are all capable of putting up 25 steals next season, and Jackson may not be too far behind, if his DWL performance is anything to go by. Add in a few more bunt hits, for we have a number of speed/power guys who should be taking advantage of infields that have to play back against them, and it's an area that I hope to see become a strength of the team in 2010.

The 2009 'Pitties: Unsung Hero

Jim McLennan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Two of our Unsung Heroes nominees combine: Ryan Roberts singles, scoring Augie Ojeda from third base, against the Astros on Aug. 23.

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Before we head into the next set of nominations, should quickly mention that the Game of the Year award went to the 18-inning marathon against the Padres on June 7th. At five hours, 45 minutes, the longest in franchise history for more than eight years, with the teams combining to use 18 hurlers who threw 592 pitches. Can't really argue with that: it was definitely a memorable contest: as the guy in charge of writing the recap, my major feeling was relief that it was an afternoon game, not an evening one...

We move on to the fourth in our series of awards, for the Unsung Hero of the year. This is the player who made a significant contribution to the team, yet did not receive the appropriate acknowledgment - be that from the media as a whole, or here on the 'Pit - for the services rendered.

Juan Gutierrez: 71 IP,1.5 WAR

Leading the team in pitching appearances and innings of relief work, Gutierrez in 2009 helped make the trade of Jose Valverde look like a good one for the Diamondbacks. The rookie made 65 appearances, and posted an ERA+ of 113 - only two NL relievers aged 25 and younger worked seventy innings with a better ERA+ [Luke Gregerson and Jonathan Broxton]. Outside of a bad ten days in June, when he allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings, his ERA was barely three, and Gutierrez gave up only two home-runs all year - to Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so hardly an embarrassment. After the loss of Chad Qualls at the end of August, Juan became the de facto closer, going a perfect 8-for-8 in save chances, and ending the Diamondbacks' season with a perfect ninth in Wrigley on only ten pitches.

Augie Ojeda: 9.6 UZR, 1.5 WAR

It'd be easy to look at Ojeda's offensive numbers - .246/.340/.345, with one homer and 16 RBI in 103 games - and see a complete waste of roster space. But that would severely undervalue Ojeda's contribution to the team, especially on defense. There. Ojeda's UZR rating, combined across three positions, was the second-best on the roster, more than twice as much as any other infielder for the 2009 Diamondbacks. In 489.1 innings between second-base and short-stop, Augie committed just three errors, for a fielding percentage of .988..He was perfect at 2B, and only two major-leaguers played more innings there without an error [Craig Counsell and Nick Punto]. Last year, he was paid $712K; fangraphs.com valued him overall at $6.9m. No wonder the team is looking at bringing Augie back.

Jon Rauch: 54.1 IP, 110 ERA+ (Arizona only)

The odds of Rauch being nominated for any kind of award seemed very bleak after the opening month of the 2009 season: over his first fourteen appearances, opponents were hitting him at a .340 clip, and his ERA was 9.00. However, the seriously unsung Blowfish managed to turn it around, impressing fans not just with his pitching ability, but also the excellent character he displayed, such as pitching both ends of the Florida double-header, getting a save in the nightcap. His ERA the rest of the way with the Diamondbacks was a very respectable 2.91, and many people were sorry to see him traded to the Twins. There, he was a crucial part of Minnesota's surge to the AL Central title, allowing three runs in seventeen games down the stretch.

Ryan Roberts: 100 OPS+, 2.0 WAR

Only three Arizona players with 75+ PAs had a higher OPS+ than Roberts - getting regular games for the first time in his career, his overall numbers were also better than those of his middle-infield colleagues Stephen Drew (89) and Felipe Lopez (98). Ryan stepped it up following the departure of his heavily-tattoed team-mate, hitting .290/.374/.465 after becoming the regular second-baseman, and earning the right to have a shot at the starting job there in 2010. Roberts was Mark Reynolds' main back-up at 3B, and made a dozen starts in right-field too - using Vernon Wells' glove - to give the team a right-handed hitter out there, rather than lefties Gerardo Parra, Alex Romero or Trent Oeltjen. All this, and Roberts also became a father for the first time in August.

As a side-note, anyone know whether Ryan Roberts still qualifies as a rookie or not? I know this sounds surprising - he is 29 now, after all! - but he certainly didn't have enough PA's before this year. It's harder to tell whether he hit the pre-September limit on roster days (45); unless he was sitting on the roster without playing, I'm not inclined to think so. Though he isn't listed as a rookie on ESPN's rookie stats, that isn't really definitive. I'm just trying to work out whether he should be listed as a nominee for the next Pittie.

Poll

Who was Arizona's unsung hero in 2009?

Juan Gutierrez

31 votes

Augie Ojeda

20 votes

Jon Rauch

18 votes

Ryan Roberts

63 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VI: Defense

Jim McLennan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:33:06 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

One of three AZ errors in a nightmarish inning against Anaheim in J.U.N.E. - as in Justin Upton's Newest Error. But was he really that bad?

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Few losses were more spectacularly painful for the 2009 Diamondbacks than the one which we endured in Seattle on June 21st. With the game tied in the bottom of the ninth, Clay Zavada loaded the bases with two down. Enter Chad Qualls, who got a ground-ball to Mark Reynolds, who made a perfect throw across to Tony Clark at first, for the last out of the inning, to send the game into extras. Except, Clark muffed it, dropping the ball and the winning run cantered across home-plate. That was one sad example of what seemed to plague Arizona for much of the year - just a week later, another inter-league game, against Anaheim, turned into a meltdown with three Angels batters reaching on D-backs' errors in the same frame.

Looking at some defensive stats, it would seem very clear that it's an area in which the Diamondbacks need to improve significantly, if they are to have any hope of challenging next season. However, as ever, after the jump, we'll be taking a look at a broader range of numbers and whether they can add any depth to the picture. We'll also see who they say was the best defender on the team this year. You might be surprised by the answer.

By just about every basic metric, our defense was undeniably among the worst around. With 124 errors, the Arizona Diamondbacks were ahead of only the Washington Nationals (143) - and that's in all of major-league baseball, not just the NL. At 68.0%, their defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls in play which e converted into outs - was better than just the Astros (67.6%) in the National League. We turned only 132 twin-killings (ok: technically, it was 131 and a triple-play), fifteen below league-average and ahead of one team, the Marlins (129). If there's any hope, it's that we had significantly fewer errors over the last 81 games (fifty) than the first 81 games (seventy-four). Let's start by breaking down the errors to see what positions were the source of our problem.

2009 Arizona errors
Pos	Err.	NL Av.	Rank
C	9	8	=5th
1B	15	10	=2nd
2B	11	13	=10th
3B	27	19	3rd
SS	16	18	9th
LF	9	6	3rd
CF	5	5	=5th
RF	13	5	1st
P	19	13	2nd

While Mark Reynolds may have made more individual errors than anyone else, third-base was not an especially problematic positions for us. First-base, right-field and - perhaps surprisingly - our pitchers, all made 45% or more errors above NL average. Whatever Doug Davis's merits, his fielding wasn't apparently one of them, as he was tied for the league-lead in errors, with five. Jon Garland was just behind, committing four, but especially notable was Blaine Boyer, who had three errors in only nine chances. At the other end, Dan Haren was one of four NL pitchers to be perfect when given more than 40 chances (Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Livan Hernandez were the others).

For right-field, I don't think I need go into specifics - I could just post Justin Upton's baseball card as an explanation there. At first-base, things probably weren't helped by the lack of a regular man at the position. Chad Tracy (56) started most there, but we had six other names written into the line-up, ranging from Brandon Allen (29 games) down to Rusty Ryal (five). Mark Reynolds was responsible for one-third of the 1B errors, despite starting only 24 games there. The vast majority (21) were before the All-Star break, and I doubt we'll see much of him there in 2010. For the next chart, we break down the E's into catching, fielding and throwing errors, and compare to NL average.

Error by type + position
Pos	Cch	Fld	Thr
C NL	11% 4%	0% 18%	89% 78%
1B NL	27% 22%	60% 54%	13% 24%
2B NL	0% 11%	71% 53%	29% 37%
3B NL	0% 1%	48% 54%	52% 44%
SS NL	6% 7%	38% 49%	56% 44%
LF NL	0% 0%	33% 74%	67% 26%
CF NL	0% 0%	80% 75%	20% 25%
RF NL	0% 0%	77% 80%	23% 20%
P NL	0% 8%	5% 22%	95% 70%

We are dealing with pretty small numbers, especially in the Arizona sample, so caution should be exercised. However, a couple of numbers do stand out as worthy of mention. The pitchers' problems mentioned above seem to be almost entirely on the throws, and the same goes for left-field - that ties in with my memories of the Parrazooka mis-firing in that position. Also worth mentioning is the change in numbers between 2008 and 2009 for Mark Reynolds. He made half as many errors at third on throws last season as in 2008 (18-9), on almost the same number of total chances. His fielding errors were also down, (15-10), but it's Mark's throws that really improved.

There's no doubt the errors tell a sorry tale of the problems in Arizona, but as we saw (in some depth!) earlier this season, they are far from the whole story as far as defense is concerned. There's a whole raft of numbers which go beyond the simple error, and some don't cast the Diamondbacks defense in such a bad light. Leading the pack would be Fangraph.com's UZR - see the above link for more info on it. As measured by that, the Diamondbacks' defense overall were at +22.0, which was fifth-best in the National League. WTF? Shome mishtake, shurely? Well, here's the breakdown of UZR by position. Yes. Another table... [Note: UZR isn't calculated for catchers or pitchers]

2009 AZ UZR by pos.
Pos	UZR	NL Rk
1B	-7.0	15th
2B	14.0	2nd
3B	-3.7	=9th
SS	7.2	2nd
LF	14.1	5th
CF	-13.1	14th
RF	10.4	2nd

There are some radical differences here, though UZR does concur with Errors that first-base was our worst position or thereabouts. Second-base comes up as a strength too - it has to be said, Felipe Lopez far from disgraced himself there this season, and we find ourselves in the same place as we were last winter, with a big questionmark at the spot. However, it's the contrast at CF and RF which are most striking. If you looked purely at errors, you'd think Chris Young was about average, while Justin Upton was the worst in the majors, commiting more by himself than the entire outfield of eight teams. However, UZR strongly disagrees, rating Young at -7.4, ninth of 11 qualifying fielders, while Upton was at +6.3, tied for Jason Werth as best in the league.

Before we anoint J-Up as unjustly robbed of the Gold Glove, we should probably do some checking. There has been some interesting work done lately on the accuracy possible by the hit-tracking systems, on which metrics like UZR depend. These are still human-powered - there's no version of PITCH/fx, which uses multiple cameras to objectively record location and speed. As a result, the 95% confidence level is +/- eighteen feet and four degrees of direction. That's a significant margin for error. If we contrast the Baseball Prospectus stat, Fielding Runs Above Average, it gives Arizona a combined total of -38. That seems to sit closer to what we'd intuitively expect. But even here, we see Chris Young in the basement at -13 and Justin Upton leading the way at +9.

Let's check one more. Bill James just released his Fielding Bible Awards for 2009, which combine votes from a number of sources. You won't be surprised to learn that no-one on the Diamondbacks won anything, but the following players were mentioned - note that these do not separate AL and NL, so the ranks are among all major-league players. Miguel Montero (13th, C); no-one at 1B; Ryan Roberts (13th, 2B); Mark Reynolds (16th, 3B); Stephen Drew (13th, SS); Gerardo Parra (19th, LF); Chris Young (10th, CF); Justin Upton (4th, RF); Jon Garland (P, 6th). So maybe Upton really was the best fielder on the Diamondbacks last year.

A couple of other things to note. Not all Arizona pitchers saw balls in play converted into outs at the same rate. If you look at the Defensive Efficiency figures for those who pitched 40 innings or more, there's a wide gap between the conversion rate for Leo Rosales (73.9% of balls in play became outs) and Billy Buckner (63.2%). Now, while these numbers need to be broken down more - it could just be that Rosales induced more infield flies, and Buckner more line drives - one would tend to expect both numbers to regress towards the team's overall mean (68.0%). Might be another reason to give Buckner a shot in the rotation next year.

Finally, let's take a look at the outfield: how were they at holding runners, and stopping them from taking a base. There are a lot of different scenarios involved here. Runner on first and a single; do they go to third? Or if they're on second, do they go home? What about advancing on a sacrifice fly? You can break down the numbers for each situation: here they are for our LF, CF and RF players. In total, however, the "hold rates" for the positions, the National League average and the number of "kills" - runners thrown out - were as follows. LF: 66.8% (63.3% ave, one kill). CF: 37.6% (44.0% ave, three kills). RF: 52.7% (50.5% ave, four kills). This is more evidence Young's 2009 defense wasn't up to much - not least because all three kills were by Parra...

Overall, there is a huge amount of room for improvement in this team's defense. Not necessarily in their range, which seems not to be the issue. It's more in the "fundamentals" side, such as hitting the cut-off man, knowing where about you have to be on a play, and not making mental mistakes. The raw talent and skills on view in the field were sometimes very impressive in 2009: however, too often, there was a problem with converting that into outs. And as Mark Grace said, if you habitually give a major-league team four outs in an inning, they will eventually bury you. Sound basic baseball needs to be the focus of this team in spring training next year, and if the players aren't on board with that, they should get familiar with the bench.

I was going to talk about our baserunning as well, but I've already gone on longer than expected, so that will have to wait for part...er, seven. I hope to have this series finished in time for Opening Day. Mind you, I'm not saying which Opening Day...

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

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Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

September: A Gurgling Vortex of Suckitude in Review

Jim McLennan — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 04:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Paul Connors - AP

When I search for Leo Rosales, AP gives me two photos - one of which is actually Clay Zavada. Poor Leo. So, here's the other one.

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An 8-18 record. Only 3.77 runs per game. A -41 run differential. Pretty much the worst month for the team since June 2006, when we went 8-20 and were -72 in runs - though even there, we scored four runs per game. The offense in particular was phoning in its performance, with a line of .247/.314/.393, an OPS of only .707. While a little better than April's .703, that was partly-based on a low BABIP figure of .265. In September, the figure was .300. League average for both was .298, so the team wasn't unlucky last month - they flat-out sucked.

This is not what you want at the end of the season. What you want are some nuggets of hope, onto which you can cling through the long, dark winter - a sense that better things are just around the corner for your team. September was not such a month. The only comfort to be drawn is that the Mets and Pirates both had a worse time of it, going 8-20. I don't know about you but, "we sucked fractionally less than Pittsburgh" is not the final thought I want to take away from the 2009 season. After the jump, we'll see if we can find any heroes, and also name some names...

Heroes

Few and far between this month: to get five, I had to lower the bar significantly compare to previous months. Therefore, you should think of the following, not perhaps as those who played particularly well, but more those who didn't blow quite as many chunks as their team-mates.

Billy Buckner: 30.1 IP, 31 H, 10 BB, 26 K, 13 ER, 3.86 ERA
The addition of a cut-fastball to Buckner's armory appeared to turn him from the sub-replacement pitcher we saw at the start of the year [an 8.63 ERA in his first 40.2 innings], to being perhaps the foremost candidate for the #5 starter's spot next season. Stilll a work in progress, he needs to keep the ball down if he's to be effective.

Miguel Montero: .310/.372/.452, 3 HR, 9 RBI
The last few games will decide whether Montero can hit .300 on the year - he currently sits at .299 - but he posted his third straight month above that line in September. Though his power was down, from 11 doubles to three, Montero took a season-high number of walks, leading to a year's best OBP of .372.

Leo Rosales: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 3 BB, 5 K, 4 ER, 3.09 ERA
Not a great month for the bullpen, who burbled their way to a collective 5.35 ERA in September. The only other reliever with five innings and an ERA under 4.80 was Gutierrez at 3.86, so Rosales deserves credit. He has got his ERA back to near-league average with a good couple of months, and seems we could do worse at the back of the 2010 bullpen.

Max Scherzer: 31 IP, 24 H, 12 BB, 24 K, 12 ER, 3.48 ERA
We were concerned about Max wearing down at the end of the season, but he proved to be our most effective starter in September, though you wouldn't know it from his 1-3 record. He did allow six home-runs over the month, but all of them were solo shots. For a 25-year old in his sophomore season, he's had a solid year.

Chris Young: .266/.343/.500, 6 HR, 10 RBI
Probably the brightest note on offense was the return to form of Young, who had the best OPS of anyone with 30 PAs. Even putting aside the power-surge, including three HR in one game, his .266 average has been bettered by Young only once since May 2007. If he can carry that into 2010, it'll be a significant help to the team.

Villains

A special, extended edition of this section, thanks to a pitching staff whose ERA was 15th in the league at 5.24, and hitters ranked 14th by runs scored. A special note on the offense. At .750 and .670, two of our starting pitchers, Billy Buckner and Dan Haren, each had better OPS numbers in September than all of the following batters.

Brandon Allen: .188/.282/.377, 3 HR, 9 RBI
First baseman of the future? Not on September's performance, which also included 25 strikeouts in 69 at-bats. Manager AJ Hinch thinks Allen panics with two strikes: "I think he gets in-between pitches. He worries about the breaking ball...and gets a little jumpy with the fastball... His strike-zone judgment is actually pretty good... I think that over time that will allow him to be a better two-strike hitter."

Doug Davis: 26.1 IP, 42 H, 14 BB, 16 K, 20 ER, 6.84 ERA
If Davis is pitching for a big free-agent contract, you wouldn't know it. That's his worst ERA for any month with more than one start in over eight years, since a 7.71 ERA in three April 2001 games. Opponents hit .375 off Davis in September. He wasn't helped by a .415 BABIP - but nor was he helped by a K:BB ratio perilously close to even.

Stephen Drew: .240/.294/.350, 1 HR, 6 RBI
I remember at the break, we were hoping for the same second-half surge we got from Drew in 2008. It hasn't happened, with a 50-point drop in his OPS since the break, though this month was better than May for Drew. Could the problem be his removal from the lead-off spot? There, he hits .305, eighty points higher than in the two-hole.

Kevin Mulvey: 23 IP, 23 H, 12 BB, 18 K, 18 ER, 7.04 ERA
Not looking like one of Byrnes' best trades. Jon Rauch has a 2.08 ERA for the Twins, and picked up as many victories in his first two games there, as during his entire time in Arizona. Mulvey, meanwhile has been hit hard - five home-runs in September, a Petit-esque rate. Those and the walks are what have hurt his overall numbers.

Yusmeiro Petit: 11.1 IP, 15 H, 5 BB. 10 K, 10 ER, 7.94 ERA
Speaking of Petit-esque... Here's the real deal, showing how it should be done, with three home-runs in this brief stint. Part of the problem is, seven of the last eight HR allowed have come with men on base; in his first 25 career homers, 20 were solo shots. Insane fly-ball rate + Chase Field = may end up not being present on the 2010 roster.

Mark Reynolds: .187/.286/.363, 4 HR, 11 RBI
Special K just doesn't like September. His career OPS for the month is .751 - the next-lowest is more than 60 points better. He probably wasn't helped by a BABIP of .250 - he has been anywhere from .319 to .396 the rest of the season, averaging .338. Srikeouts and walks remained remakably consistent, but it does seem he is flagging at the end of a long, largely memorable, season.

Ryan Roberts: .224/.298/.303, 1 HR, 5 RBI
RR's roller-coaster year continues: in the four months with 50+ PAs, his OPS has been .933, .396, 1.004 and .600 - no month within four hundred points of the next. Maybe we only need to play him in months that end in a Y? He had the lowest OPS of anyone with more than twenty PAs, and did little to solidify his claim on a starting-role next year.

Poll

Who was the Diamondbacks' Player of the Month for September?

Billy Buckner

14 votes

Miguel Montero

29 votes

Leo Rosales

1 votes

Max Scherzer

2 votes

Chris Young

26 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: NL Second Base-The New Power Position

raygu — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Braves' Martin Prado connects for a third-inning, two-run double in a baseball game against the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York, Monday, Sept. 21, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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A few weeks ago, I wrote an article stating that 3B will be a scarce position in NL-only lagues in 2010. Well, it appears that 2B is the new power position in the NL. There are currently 3 second baseman with a SLG % over .500, and 12 with an OPS over .780.

Player	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Utley, Chase 2B PHI	527	105	155	27	31	91	85	102	22	0.294	0.411	0.533	0.945
McGehee, Casey 3B MIL	320	53	97	17	15	61	33	59	0	0.303	0.366	0.503	0.869
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL	147	28	40	5	9	24	12	39	2	0.272	0.34	0.517	0.857
Uribe, Juan 2B SF	354	45	103	24	13	47	22	72	3	0.291	0.33	0.492	0.821
Lopez, Felipe 2B MIL	561	81	175	35	9	53	63	96	6	0.312	0.382	0.433	0.815
Uggla, Dan 2B FLA	520	79	125	24	29	81	87	138	1	0.24	0.353	0.458	0.811
Prado, Martin 3B ATL	404	55	122	32	10	48	30	52	0	0.302	0.349	0.455	0.804
Stewart, Ian 3B COL	395	71	91	19	24	69	51	126	7	0.23	0.322	0.476	0.798
Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN	534	70	149	28	20	90	42	70	24	0.279	0.333	0.459	0.792
Roberts, Ryan 3B ARI	281	40	79	15	7	24	39	53	7	0.281	0.374	0.416	0.79
Baker, Jeff 2B CHC	181	22	55	10	3	20	14	43	1	0.304	0.357	0.431	0.788
Lugo, Julio SS STL	231	34	67	13	3	19	25	43	7	0.29	0.358	0.429	0.786
DeRosa, Mark 2B STL	483	76	124	23	23	76	46	111	3	0.257	0.326	0.451	0.777
Hudson, Orlando 2B LA	525	70	151	33	9	60	53	93	8	0.288	0.354	0.417	0.771
Schumaker, Skip CF STL	499	82	153	33	4	34	47	66	2	0.307	0.366	0.401	0.766
Counsell, Craig 3B MIL	379	54	107	21	4	35	38	50	3	0.282	0.354	0.412	0.765
Castillo, Luis 2B NYM	450	76	140	12	1	36	67	54	17	0.311	0.399	0.358	0.756
Velez, Eugenio 2B SF	231	31	63	12	5	28	15	43	8	0.273	0.321	0.433	0.754
Harris, Willie LF WAS	286	44	64	17	7	24	54	53	10	0.224	0.363	0.385	0.748
Sanchez, Freddy 2B SF	457	56	134	29	7	41	22	76	5	0.293	0.326	0.416	0.742

I have sorted this list by OPS, and in all there are 5 second baseman with 20+ homers lead by Chase Utley's 31 bombs and Dan Uggla who slugged his 30th last night. And another "hidden" source of power is the Braves Martin Prado who has 32 doubles and 10 HRs in 400+ ABs. He should get an addition 100 ABs next season for the Braves, and should turn a few of those doubles into HRs in 2010.

Another guy I have my eye on is Diamondbacks 2010 second baseman Ryan Roberts. In just under 300 ABs, he has 7 HRs and 7 SBs, to go along with a .281-.374-.416-.790 slash stats. He has an excellent eye at the plate judging by his 53/39 K/BB ratio. You will see him on sleeper lists by 2010 draft day.

A couple things to keep in mind is that the Brewers will get Rickie Weeks back at 2B in 2010, meaning 2009 breakout Casey McGehee should move over to 3B, but will still be eligible to be drafted at 2B.

Also, the Marlins Dan Uggla will more than likely be traded in the offseason, and given the Dodgers lack of pop in the infield, I could see them dealing for Uggla with Orlando Hudson a free agent at the end of the season. Everyone knows he has 30 HR power, but he also walks alot, which Joe Torre and Don Mattingly love to see in a hitter.

By the way, what happened to Felipe Lopez stealing a base every now and then? Six stolen bases???

Poll

After Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips, which second baseman gets drafted next?

Dan Uggla-can't pass up that power

30 votes

Rickie Weeks-he will go 20-20 again

11 votes

Mark DeRosa-especially if he returns to the Cubs

8 votes

Martin Prado-the power breaks out in 2010

16 votes

65 votes | Poll has closed

Diamondbacks 4, Giants 5: Another One Gets Thrown Away

Jim McLennan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 07:56:00 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Comedian Frank Caliendo signals how far short his first pitch fell of home-plate. Merciless booing ensues.

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Record: 65-86. Pace: 70-92. Change on last season: -10

Speaking to Mark Grace before the game - yeah, I'm namedropping, for reasons I'll mention later - I asked him what one thing the club needed to do over the off-season. His answer was blunt and to the point: get nine guys who can catch the ball. The Diamondbacks' performance tonight could hardly have been better crafted to make Grace look like a genius. Three errors by Arizona gave the Giants extra outs, bonus bases, helped remove Ryan Roberts from the game with an injury, and in the final analysis, certainly played a crucial role in condemning the team to a one-run defeat against the Giants.

Details - and more namedropping, I imagine - after the jump.

The defensive indifference started in the top of an interesting first inning. The first batter reached when Brandon Allen clanked a fairly-routine looking ground-ball. However, that particular error was undone by Billy Buckner picking the speedy Velez off, much to the latter's disgust. That looked like a crucial play, as an infield single and walk then put the next two batters on. However, Buckner rolled up a nice ground-ball directly to Ryan Roberts, and it looked like the inning would be over. CLANK. The ball went right through Roberts, and the runner scored from second, giving the Giants a one-run lead.

Credit to Buckner for getting out of that mess - first and third, one out - without further damage, though the additional outs basically wrecked his pitch-count. He didn't look bad at all after that, and had allowed only one earned run through four innings, but his pitch count was at fifty after only two frames. His stamina does seem to be an issue, and after the second go through the order on, opposing hitters are a lot better at dealing with Buckner. The Giants batters were 3-for-6 the third time they faced Buckner tonight, and the opposition have now hit .435 (27-for-62) when they see him for the third or fourth occasion this season. That will need to be addressed if he's to become a permanent member of the rotation next season.

However, the Diamondbacks hit back almost immediately. Chris Young walked, and with two outs, Mark Reynolds smacked what I think was one of the highest fly-balls I've ever seen. The only way I could tell where it was going was seeing the Giants outfielder going back, back, back to the wall and then just watching as it landed back in the seats. That's home-run #43, and gives him 99 RBI on the season. He almost got number 100 - and been the first Diamondback since Gonzo in 2003 to do so - with a laser-beam in the fifth, but the Giants had him played perfectly. And needed to be: if the shortstop had been two feet to either side, it would have been a hit.

Mark had broken one of the unwritten rules in the fourth, making the first out at third, as he tried to reach there from first on a single by Roberts. However, he was gunned down by a perfect throw from left-fielder Velez; it was close, and one can hardly blame him for trying. Especially with Eric Byrnes on deck: he had a woeful evening, with three infield pop-ups and a strikeout. EB couldn't even get a bunt down, after Augie Ojeda walked to lead-off the eighth, putting the tying run on base. Almost as bad was Stephen Drew, who was bullied mercilessly by the Giants lefties, going 0-for-4, before singling with two outs in the ninth - off a righty, natch. He's now hitting .181 against LHP this year.

The Giants retook the lead, tying things up in the fourth, then chasing Buckner with three consecutive one-out hits in the fifth - he threw 104 pitches to get through 4.1 innings, on six hits and three walks, and was charged with four runs, three earned. Leo Rosales walked the first batter he faced, then allowed a sacrifice fly that went about as deep as possible in Chase, sending Chris Young right to the track. That made the score 4-2, but Justin Upton tied things back up with a bases-loaded single in the bottom of the fifth, chasing Zito from the game. The sides then exchanged zeros in the sixth and seventh.

The Diamondbacks then lost the game in the eighth. I imagine your reaction to this will be a rolling of the eyes and perhaps a slight sigh of resignation. Esmerling Vasquez was the villain of the piece tonight. He walked the first batter, and the next Giant put down a bunt that got past the pitcher. He charged back to retrieve it, but Ryan Roberts was also intent on fielding the ball, and Vasquez executed the sort of cross-check on our 2B that'd have merited a stay in the penalty-box, had it been seen on an ice-rink. Vasquez then threw the ball past first, putting men on second and third. He got the next out, then intentionally walked the bases loaded; a ground-ball was delivered, but we couldn't quite double-up the speedy Lewis and the Giants scored what proved to be the winning run.

That was the only run charged to the bullpen in 4.2 innings of work. Again, I am somewhat surprised by the pitching choices made by AJ Hinch, putting first Yusmeiro Petit and then Daniel Schlereth into tied games. However, tonight, his confidence in both men proved justified: they posted scoreless sixth and seventh innings, and were joined on the zero front by Blaine Boyer's ninth. Young had two hits and a walk from the leadoff spot, while Roberts had a pair of hits before his unfortunate departure from the game [fortunately, it's only a mild ankle-sprain, and he's day-to-day]. Reynolds had a walk in addition to his homer, and John Hester looked good at the plate, with a double and a single.

Audio clippage from Hinch on the errors which cost the team heavily tonight, Buckner on escaping the early jams, and Reynolds on his home-run:

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

[Click to enlarge at fangraphs.com]
Master of his domain: Mark Reynolds, +10.1%
God-emperor of suck: Esmeling Vasquez, -18.6%
Dishonorable mentions: Byrnes, -18.0%; Buckner, -17.3%

Massive Gameday Threadishness going on, though rather a lot of it seemed only tangentially connected to the game - and that's probably being kind. Still, 929 comments is not to be sneezed at, with 'Skins responsible for more than a quarter, and three-digit contributions from soco and Wailord. Down in eighth, we find, for the first time ever in the top ten...Mrs. SnakePit, thanks to her new phone. Ok, some of her comments were here re-posting my sardonic comments - two minds, but with one single wireless device! - but still, nice to see. Also present: snakecharmer, emilylovesthedbacks, kishi, 4 Corners Fan, piratedan7, NASCARbernet, AcucracK, hotclaws, AJforAZ, edbigghead, Charlie77, katers, RdRnnr, SeanMillerSavior, Azreous, victor frankenstein, PinchHitLancePainter and jazzbo13.

I guess my big surprise kinda seeped out tonight, but in case you missed the GDT - and, actually, missed the mention of it on the broadcast - before the game, I got to interview Daron Sutton and (somewhat) Mark Grace, as well as see a bit of the 'behind the scenes' of the press area at Chase. It was a highly interesting glimpse behind the televisual curtain, and I'll be posting the interviews and report when I get everything transcribed, which I hope will be later this week.

Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 5: From Dusk Till Dawn

DbacksSkins — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:38:52 -0000

More photos » by AARON J. LATHAM - AP

Dbacks color guy Matt Williams' sporadic dip into statistical language tonight can mean only one thing: Hell might be freezing over, and Jason Marquis' 2009 deal with the devil might be finished.

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Record: 65-83 Pace: 71-91 Change on last season: -8

The Dbacks came one game closer to winning the NL Wild Card tonight, knocking the Rockies off a game and bringing themselves within 19 games of the WC leader with 14 left to play. No, but seriously, the Diamondbacks continued to play the Rockies tough in 2009, bringing the season series between the teams to 7-9, but needing to win the next two games in order to overcome that ugly sweep in Coors two weekends ago and earn a season split.

After getting off to a rough, Kevin Mulvey-driven start, the Diamondbacks rallied for a come-from-behind victory and held on to win against the Colorado Rockies. Brandon Allen had a two-run, game-tying homer, Ryan Roberts had two hits, two walks, and a solo shot of his own, Stephen Drew decided to read Jim's article and had two line-drive singles, Gerardo Parra had a two-RBI double off the glove of Brad Hawpe, and Mulvey and the bullpen combined to allow only 1 run after the 3rd inning. Details, as always, after the jump.

Kevin Mulvey started out his second major league start by giving up a double to Carlos Gonzalez, a former Dbacks farmhand who hit a homer off him in his Dbacks debut last week. After getting Snakekiller Seth Smith out on a fly ball and Todd Helton on a grounder, it appeared as though he might escape without damage. However, consecutive walks to the Tool and Rockies All Star Brad Hawpe loaded the bases for Yorvit Torrealba, who is currently hitting over 1.00 with RISP. (Seriously. He's like 18-16 or something) Torrealba lined a single to CY in center. BAM! Rox 2, Dbacks 0. Mulvey struck out Ian Stewart to end the threat and advance to the bottom.

However, the Dbacks were facing mighty Jason ZOMGZ USED TO BE LEEDING THE NL IN WINZ!!! Marquis, (Not to be confused with ZOMGZSanchez) who promptly gave a run back. Chris Young singled to lead off the bottom, Stephen Drew followed with a single of his own, but Justin Upton, the best hitter on the team, tried to lay down a bunt, presumably for a hit. He was tagged out, and one has to wonder why, exactly, he would do such a thing. In retrospect, it ended up paying off as a sac bunt, as Miguel Montero drove the ball deep to RF to bring in CY on an arc that nearly left the park. Mark Reynolds, who finished 0-3 but with a walk, popped out to end the inning.

The teams traded 0's in the second, which was probably slightly less impressive for Mulvey, who was facing the Rockies' 8, 9, and leadoff hitters. After issuing a 2 out walk to his nemesis, Carlos Gonzalez, a terrible jump and a strong throw by Miguel Montero caught CarGon trying to steal 2nd for the 3rd out. In the bottom of the inning, Gerardo Parra reciprocated by erasing his own leadoff walk on a CS, and after a Ryan Roberts walk, Brandon Allen and Mulvey struck out to end it. In the third, Mulvey continued his "2 on, 2 off, 2 on, 2 off" pattern by allowing a single to Smith and a homer to short left by Tulowitzki, and Marquis struck out the Dbacks' 1-2-3 hitters in the bottom of the inning. Sign of things to come?

Um, no. Mulvey followed with his own 3-up, 3-down inning, and Miggy led off the bottom of the 4th with a deep double. Reynolds bounced into a very strange play where Miggy took off for 3rd, thought better of it, then slid back into 2nd. Meanwhile, Toolo fielded the ball but, seeing Miggy running right in front of him, ran towards him to get the out, before realizing that he needed to toss it to Clint Barmes instead, who completely miffed the tag. First and second, no outs.

The no out situation was quickly rectified by Gerardo Parra, who did one of the two things he does best: grounded into a double play, erasing Mark at 2nd but sending Miggy to 3rd. Roberts, however, singled with a liner of his own to score Montero, and Brandon Allen flexed his muscles, sending a 3-2 pitch low in the zone out onto the pool deck in right center and tying the game, for his 4th home run of his brief rookie season. Trent Oeltjen pinch hit for Mulvey but struck out. Following the game, AJ Hinch commented that if the Dbacks had still been behind his next time up, Mulvey would have hit for himself, but with a tie game and a chance to win it, he opted to bring in the bullpen.

At the time, the decision to bring in Daniel Schlereth was met by a collective groan in the Snakepit Gameday Thread, as Dbacks fans everywhere penned their suicide notes. Son of Stink responded by pitching two perfect 1-2-3 innings in a row, while the Dbacks wasted offensive opportunities in the 5th and 6th. A 2 out Upton double went for naught in the 5th, as did two 1-out walks and one 2-out walk in the 6th, when the New And Improved Chris Young reverted to Old And Fail Chris Young, popping out to Barmes with the bases juiced.

Leo Rosales pitched a perfect 7th for the *SPOILER ALERT* win, and the Dbacks finally broke through against the Rockies' bullpen in the bottom. Manager Jim Tracy brought in LOOGY Randy Flores, who promptly gave up another line-drive single to Droo into LF. Tracy pulled his lefty for a righty, who got two quick K's of Upton and Montero before Reynolds showed remarkable patience in drawing a full-count walk. Parra came to bat again, and did that OTHER thing he does really well, by getting a double with RISP -- well, maybe we should call this a "Coors Field double". The deep fly ball to RF bounced off the tip of Hawpe's glove, bounced off the wall, and rolled around to give Droo and Reynolds time to score. Parra was thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple for the 3rd out, but the Dbacks had their first lead over Colorado since the 6th inning of the first game in the Coors sweep.

Hinch brought in Scott Schoeneweis for a perfect 8th, and Power Hitter Ryan Roberts led off the bottom with his 7th home run of the season, in a sign that it might just be Arizona's night.

Juan Gutierrez, the Dbacks' de facto closer, pitched himself out of a sticky situation in the 9th for his 6th save. Gutierrez walked Hawpe to lead off and gave up consecutive singles to Torrealba and Stewart to make it 7-5, allowing only his 2nd run of the last 13 innings. With no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Gutierrez responded by striking out pinch hitters Jason Giambi and Garret Atkins and getting CarGon to pop out harmlessly to Miggy to end it.

It was a game that got pretty dark, pretty quickly, but the Arizona side fought their way back for another comeback win, and have now taken 3 of 4 after going 1-9 in their previous 10. After allowing 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts against the powerful Giants, Mets, and Padres offenses, Jason ZOMGWINZ Marquis rebounded against the Dbacks to give up merely 4 earned over 6. Mulvey, on the other hand, preserved his perfect Mark Grace-esque ERA of 9.00, a trend we'll be glad to see end eventually... hopefully.

[Click to enlarge, at fangraphs.com]
Badass of the Day: Ryan Roberts, +19.0%
Also mavericky: Parra, +16.9%; Schlereth, +14.5%; Allen, +13.4%
Boarding the bus to Reno: Kevin Mulvey, -21.7%
Should have stayed in bed: Chris Young, -12.3%

Pretty typical come-from-behind WP graph, with the Dbacks coming back from about an 80% chance to lose in the 4th inning. Also, the Diamondbacks got into Taco Territory for the first time in September, with a run to spare, no less. Oh joy!

In the gameday thread, which ended up with nearly 660 comments, the top poster was.... well, me, with soco coming in second with 156. NASCARbernet (63) and Jim (62) were the next two, and the only other posters with more than 47. Commenters included kishi, 4 Corners Fan, DbacksSkins, katers, friendly visiting fan coolopotamous, soco, AcucracK, snakecharmer, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, emilylovesthedbacks, eel, luckycc, asteroid, NASCARbernet, mrssoco, jazzbo13, piratedan7, Scrbl, and Wailord. Our GDT was narrowly pipped by Purple Row's, who outcommented us 664-657. (Note that both GDT's were narrowly pipped by Purple Row's Overflow Thread, with an additional 795 comments. Oh well, you win some, you lose some?)

Normal 5:10PM saturday start tomorrow, with young Mad Max Scherzer facing off against young Jason "Kinda Looks Like A Monkey" Hammel. Will the Dbacks win to take the series and keep the hopes alive of a season split? Or will the Rockies drive another stake into the hearts of the Giants? Will more random Rockies-eating bears show up in the Gameday Thread? Tune in tomorrow to find out!

That's not a rattler - it's just a little garter snake

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Perhaps a bigger surprise than the Rockies' resurgence in the NL West this season has been that the Diamondbacks have allowed the Padres to beat them into the divisional cellar.

Browse more photos »

This has truly been a miserable season for the Diamondbacks. I didn't truly realize just how miserable until today.

Arizona is on pace to go 71-91 this season, their third worst season in franchise history. Only their inaugural season in 1998 (65-97) and that sorry 2004 team (51-111) has finished below 76 wins. Just for your comparison, the Rockies have 91 losses just thrice - 1993, 2004 and 2005. And this Arizona team was almost universally expected to finish in the top three in the NL West, with several projections placing them atop the division.

Losing their ace and cleanup hitter from 2008 for the season sure doesn't help, but the futility doesn't just come from those two players' absences. Anyone that had Arizona 24 games out at this point needs their own TV show.

Naturally, in all things sensical, it is the D-Backs that are just coming off a near sweep of the Padres, breaking San Diego's six-series win streak in the process. This after losing 9 of their last 10 games. After winning their last five games in August, Arizona is 4-11 in September. Baseball can be so random at times.

With one win in the series, Colorado will clinch the season series from Arizona, quite the rebound from the 3-15 mark they put up last season. Arizona's pitiful 32-40 home record bests only Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City for the worst home marks in the league, and given the Rockies are 38-37 on the road, the home field advantage for the series is flat non-existent.

Go hang out at AZ Snakepit. They are good people.

Scoreboard Watch

San Francisco (3.5 game lead) @ Los Angeles (5GB). Vicente Padilla vs Jonathan Sanchez. Jon Garland vs. Brad Penny. Randy Wolf vs. Tim Lincecum.

Atlanta (4.5) vs. Philadelphia. Tim Hudson vs. J.A, Happ. Javier Vazquez vs. Pedro Martinez. Tommy Hanson vs. Cliff Lee.

Florida (5) @ Cincinnati. Rick VandenHurk vs. Homer Bailey. Ricky Nolasco vs. Bronson Arroyo. Sean West vs. Kip Wells.

Arizona Diamondbacks (64-83, L1, 5th, 24 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Chase Field

The Bats: C

As Rockies fans know, it is hard to have a functioning offense with automatic outs in the lineup. All season, Arizona has suffered with whoever was playing in CF or 1B (and in LF before Conor Jackson left). With Brandon Allen showing signs of life and Chris Young heating up finally like D-Back fans prayed for all season, the easy outs are harder to come by. They still have terrible OBP at the top of the lineup, but there's a considerable power threat from the top five in the batting order.

For the season, they have the 4th worst batting average in the NL and MLB in spite of enjoying the benefits of Chase Field. Their 158 HR are 4th in the NL, easing them up to 10th in the NL in wOBA. They are middle of the pack in runs scored with 652, 8th in the NL. But with Chris Young starting to hit, the lineup is more dangerous than has been this season thus far.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Chris Young - CF	.206	13	38	.307	.399	.312	80
Stephen Drew - SS	.257	12	58	.321	.432	.323	91
Justin Upton - RF	.308	24	76	.377	.550	.399	134
Miguel Montero - C	.300	14	53	.361	.487	.362	115
Mark Reynolds - 3B	.272	42	97	.363	.571	.398	135
Gerardo Parra - LF	.293	5	54	.324	.408	.315	87
Ryan Roberts - 2B	.271	6	21	.362	.401	.341	96
Brandon Allen - 1B	.224	3	24	.306	.421	.309	84

AJ Hinch has juggled his lineup in response to hot streaks (Young/Upton) and cold streaks (Drew/Reynolds/Roberts), also optimizing the left/right combo to the full extent. However, to do so, he had to put Chris Young back at the leadoff spot, drop Ryan Roberts - who has hit just as well as Felipe Lopez did - to 7th, and drop their best hitter and MLB's 2nd leading home run hitter to 5th. Even considering the streaks involved, It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Via OPS+, Upton and Reynolds are strong All-Star caliber hitters and Montero is solidly above average. Roberts is about average, Drew is a slightly below, Parra is moderately below while Allen and Young have been relative deadweights.

Chad Tracy (.227, 6, 34), Rusty Ryal (.262, 2, 3) and Augie Ojeda (.235, 1, 13) are Hinch's backup infielders. Alex Romero (.259, 1, 18), Eric Byrnes (.216, 6, 26) and Trent Oeltjen (.246, 3, 4) are on the bench as OFers while Luke Carlin (3-for-17) and John Hester (5-for-15, 1 HR) are the reserve backstops.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B-

The Diamondbacks will throw out their top two starts for the series, including rejuvinated OMGace Dan Haren. Scherzer and Haren have faced the Rockies in the same series once this season, with Arizona taking that series in Coors Field (although Scherzer actually lost his game). Kevin Mulvey is no better than any of the pitchers we feasted on against the Mets or Reds.

Juan Gutierrez has arguably been the best reliever for Arizona this season and has taken a strangehold on the closer's role after Chad Qualls went down.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Gutierrez	4-3	60	0	0	0	5	1	65.0	60	29	28	2	29	60	3.88	1.37

Gutierrez is joined in the pen by lefties Daniel Schlereth, Scott Schoeneweis and Clay Zavada as well as right handers Blaine Boyer, Bryan Augenstein, Daniel Cabrera, Leo Rosales, Yusmeiro Petit and Esmerling Vasquez.

The D: C+

Arizona has been 2nd in MLB in errors for most of the season, and they sit eight behind Washington's league high 124. UZR-wise, their season-long range marks grade out above average, as they are 9th in the league. Parra, Reynolds, Allen and Young are graded as weak by UZR, while the rest of the lineup is solid, led by Upton's 8.0 UZR/150.

The Ballpark: VERY STRONG hitter's park

Chase Field has officially taken the torch from Coors Field as the NL's best hitters park. This year, Chase is playing at a Baseball-Reference park factor of 108, clearly stronger even than Coors Field's 105/106 (both have multi-year factors of 107). The park is extremely friendly to home runs and triples, giving a good shot in the arm for doubles as well.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-11	34	29	2	1	0	0	195.1	193	88	82	13	64	98	3.78	1.32

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Kevin Mulvey	0-1	3	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	12	7	7	2	3	5	9.00	2.14

Frankly, I'm a little worried about Jason Marquis, who has been poor in three of his last four starts. It is the first time all year he has given up 5+ ER three times in four starts, and he was facing three of the most anemic offenses in the league in Sad Diego, San Francisco and New York. The only time he has faced Arizona this season was in his third start of the year, when he allowed 6 ER on 9 hits (2 HR) in 5 IP at Chase Field. Luckily, he's drawing the weakest of starters for Arizona. Kevin Mulvey stepped into the rotation in place of Yusmeiro Petit with no big league starts under his belt. The waiver wire pickup from Minnesota got knocked around in his start Saturday while wearing a "Los DBacks" jersey, allowing 6 ER on 11 hits in 4 IP to Milwaukee. In his appearance before that, he served up a home run to Carlos Gonzalez and walked three Rockies. He utilizes a high-80's fastball, low-80's slider, mid-70's curve and will mix in a changeup now and again. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Saturday, September 19, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-8	30	27	1	0	0	0	156.1	184	85	76	13	39	112	4.38	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Max Scherzer	9-9	29	28	0	0	0	0	160.0	158	87	72	18	55	162	4.05	1.33

Just when I started heaping uninhibited praise on Hammel, he broke his 8-game 3ER or less streak, allowing four to the Giants at AT&T. One very unpublicized part of Hammel's game is his 0.75HR/9, which is absolutely fantastic for a fifth starter for the Rockies. Part of that has been his filthy curveball, which Fangraphs has rated as 7th best in MLB, sandwiched in between Barry Zito and Chris Carpenter. Nice company. He threw two scoreless innings in relief at Chase Field in April and allowed 3 ER in 6 IP Sept 4 at Coors against the D-Backs. After suffering a miserable August, Max Scherzer has rebounded a bit in September, allowing 1 ER in two of his 3 starts. The heterochromic right-hander faced the Rockies twice this year, both times at Coors in July, having success neither night. He allowed 9 runs (7 earned) in 10 innings, serving up home runs to Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart, This is a fairly even pitching matchup. Hammel has the better FIP, but Scherzer has the better tRA. Favors: DRAW

Sunday, September 20, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ubaldo Jimenez	13-11	30	30	1	0	0	0	198.0	170	81	78	12	75	173	3.55	1.24

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Dan Haren	14-8	34	30	3	1	0	0	209.1	166	68	65	25	32	201	2.79	.95

After being consistent for so long, it's odd to say Ubaldo has not given us what we wanted to see the last two starts. Tuesday at AT&T was the kind of abomination we ought to expect every once in a while, as even aces have bad games. Coming off that hamstring injury, one might think the leg contributed to the poor start. But I didn't see any evidence of that - I saw rust. If he can get Ian Stewart to play third and get back into his routine, we'll see the Ubaldo of old. After four weeks of struggles from mid-July to mid-August, Dan Haren has returned back into a forceful hurler. Since getting lit up in Philly, he has allowed no more than 3 ER in 5 straight starts. He did allow home runs in 9 of his last 10 starts before pitching in the land dingers go to die his last outing, so he could be vulnerable to the heavy hitters at Chase. Combine that with the fact that he walks no one and strikes out plenty, and the Rockies need to be very aggressive to achieve success. Overall, Haren has a slight edge over Jimenez in tRA and FIP. The two locked horns on July 5, with Haren besting Jimenez in the rubber game 4-3. Favors: DIAMONDBACKS slightly

My take: This series isn't absolutely essential in terms of the wild card. The Giants and Dodgers will beat up on each other. The Marlins are probably out of it as is and the Braves will get all they can handle against Philly. Even with a series loss, they'll still be in prime position. Now that I'm done sandbagging, the pitching matchups give the Rockies a solid chance in every game and there's no reason to drop this series. Rox take two,

Chris Young is hitting a stout .302/.373/.698 (.438 wOBA) for the month of September with 6 HR. Starting with the series at Coors Field two weeks ago, the CF has hit safely in 10 of 12 games. His previous best stretch of 10 games with hits was 16 games to start the season. Gerardo Parra is hitting .367 and Miguel Montero .327 this month. Juan Gutierrez has permitted just one run in his last 12.1 IP.

Ryan Roberts is hitting only .152 (7-for-46) in September, while Eric Byrnes, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Brandon Allen are all batting at a .220 clip or worse since the monthly calendar flip. Daniel Schlereth just gave up four runs in his last outing, Daniel Cabrera threw three scoreless innings in his last relief appearance, but in his only other appearance this month, he faced 5 Rockies and all scored in his D-Backs debut.

Chad Qualls is out with a nasty knee injury he sustained August 30 and will not return this season. Conor Jackson (Valley Fever - 5/12) and Brandon Webb (shoulder - 4/7) are also on the 60-day and have essentially provided no value to the team all year. Eric Byrnes (fractured hand - 6/26), Chris Snyder (lower back - 8/23) is on the 15-day. Snyder may still return this year - everyone else has been shut down for the season.

Poll

Good series?

A sweep is always good, yeah.

40 votes

It's a series win on the road vs Haren and Scherzer. That's a yes

104 votes

Losing the series hurts, but we'll still be in good position for the playoffs, and that's all that matters

19 votes

Swept by Arizona. THE SKY IS FALLING!

12 votes

175 votes | Poll has closed