SB Nation - A.J. Burnett

Top Moments '09: No. 9 - The Roller Coaster Ride At Fenway

ltrain2 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:00:18 -0000

Mike Lowell celebrating his game winning 3-run home run against the New York Yankees 04/25/09.

OTM COVERAGE: 0157H7's postgame recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #9 of 2009
GAME RECAP: 4/25/09: New York Yankees 11 Boston Red Sox 16

What list of this nature would be complete without a good old fashioned Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup? And how can it get any better than a game featuring 27 total runs scored, a six-RBI night from the recently departed Mike Lowell, five lead changes (the last of course being the best), and a battering of newly acquired Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett?

Yes this game had it all, ultimately resulting in what was Boston's ninth straight win at the time -- second straight over the struggling Yankees (Boston would go on to sweep New York in the 3-game set at Fenway).

The Yankees began a night that was initially billed as a pitcher's duel between former Florida Marlins teammates Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett by jumping out to a 6-0 lead in the top half of the 4th inning, thanks in large part to Robinson Cano, who blasted a 2-run home run in the third frame and followed that up with a 2-run double in the fourth (both at the hands of Beckett) to produce the Sox's 6-run deficit.

However, the Sox's bats wouldn't let the Yankees off the hook that easy, something that became the theme of the night when everything was said and done.

Boston's offense awoke from their early game slumber in a big way during their half of the fourth inning. After Pedroia, Youkilis, and Drew filled up the bases, Jason Bay got the scoring started with an RBI single. Varitek wasted no time in continuing the onslaught slugging a grand-slam off of a now visably shaken Burnett.

Beckett settled, albiet temporarily, in the fifth by tossing a scoreless frame (quite the feat on this particular night). Burnett's half of the inning, however, failed to go as smoothly. Jacoby Ellsbury homered to right field to erase the once six run lead even quicker than it was created. With the score knotted at six runs a piece, Bay again came through big, this time knocking a double that plated both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Somehow, after being down 6-0, the Sox found themselves up 8-6 heading into the sixth inning. Believe it or not, it gets even more ridiculous from here.

In possibly the worst way possible, the Yankees managed to tie the game at 8-8 in the top half of the sixth. Once iconic Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon homered scoring Yankees captain Derek Jeter, quickly destroying the small lead that Boston had worked so hard for. Without recording an out in the sixth, Beckett's night was finished. Final line: Ugly.

Boston would again grab hold of the lead in their half of the sixth following a David Ortiz sacrifice fly that scored Nick Green. Heading into the seventh inning: Yankees 8 Red Sox 9.

By this point, you should be able to guess what happens next. If you guessed that there would be yet another lead change, then it's safe to assume that you've been doing a bang-up job paying attention so far. Good work. This time, the Yankees' runs came via a rare error from second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Berroa and Gardner both scored as a result of the play as the Sox handed the lead back to New York, 10-9.

With the star of the previous game Jason Bay standing at the plate in the seventh, the Yankees decided to intentionally walk him and take their chances with Mike Lowell. Not the right move on this night. Lowell proceded to hit a 3-run blast Over The Monster (a little self-promoting there, forgive me) giving the Red Sox a 12-10 lead. A lead that, despite the trend leading up to this point in the game, actually managed to hold up.

Cano made things interesting in the eighth by cutting the lead to one with a solo home run, his second long ball of the game, but that would be all the runs that New York would accrue on this night. Pedroia added and RBI single in the bottom of the eighth, subsequently followed by Mike Lowell's bases-clearing double, bringing us to our final score of 16-11.

Just writing this game summary has given me a splitting headache.

After the game, Bay put it best:

"It was one of the more unbelievable games I've been involved in as far as back and forth," said Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay. "It was a little bit of everything, and the bullpen again held and we got some timely hits."

Interesting facts from the Red Sox's victory over the Yankees

The six run comeback was the largest since 1968, when Boston came back after being down 9-3 to beat New York by a final score of 11-10.
Lowell started the game 0-3 with two strikeouts, stranding five baserunners, only to finish with six RBIs (the most for any Red Sox player against the Yankees since Carlton Fisk circa 1973).
The 27 total runs was tied for the fourth most scored in this rivalry at the time.
The game's two starting pitchers, Beckett and Burnett, both surrendered eight runs. The first time since 1987 that both starters in a Yankee-Red Sox matchup allowed eight or more runs. The two that accomplished the feat prior to this game? Tommy John and Roger Clemens.
Mark Teixeira became the first Yankee to register five walks in a game since Roger Maris did it back in 1962.
A total of twelve pitchers threw a combined 385 pitches, managing to retire the side in order just twice (once for each team).
The 4 hours and 21 minutes that it took to complete this game is tied for the sixth-longest non-extra inning affair in baseball history. The top two on that list belonging to, of course, the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.

Grudge Match: Burnett vs. Lackey

Tommy Bennett — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

John Lackey recently compared himself favorably to A.J. Burnett. The comparison is closer than you might think. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

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From the "Yeah, and I'd Like a Pony" files, John Lackey has said he would like to receive a deal that exceeds A.J. Burnett's in both yearly salary and length. Last offseason, Burnett signed a five-year, $82.5MM deal with the Yankees, which pays him a cool $16.5MM per year. Exceeding that deal would almost certainly put Lackey into the rarefied $100 million air currently occupied only by C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Barry Zito.

Many laughed when they heard what Lackey was asking for. But then I looked at the numbers, and that's when the comparison began to seem apt.

Burnett is nearly two years older than Lackey, so when Burnett signed his contract he was about nine months older than Lackey would be at a comparable time. Give a slight advantage to Lackey on that count.

Next, the numbers. I have compared their careers up to the offseason in which they sought the big deal. Here are the results:

	IP	K	BB	IBB	HBP	HR	FIP
Burnett	1376.3	1278	568	23	60	122	3.81
Lackey	1501	1201	441	19	73	151	3.90

Lackey has pitched more innings, but Burnett had a slightly better FIP. Some of this is attributable to their home stadiums. While Lackey has toiled in the approximately neutral stadium in Anaheim, Burnett enjoyed the wide open spaces in Florida, and to a lesser extent, Toronto. But often career numbers can be misleading--they overinclude data that aren't particularly relevant to the comparison at hand. So what about a weighted average (5-4-3, natch) of the three seasons leading up to the deal?

	IP	K	BB	IBB	HBP	HR	FIP
Burnett	181.3	184	68	2	10	19	3.78
Lackey	184	146	46	1	10	20	3.94

Burnett starts to distance himself from Lackey a little bit. Neither was the paragon of perfect health, although Burnett was likely helped by his 224 inning campaign in 2008 and durability that it showed. Burnett struck out and walked more batters. Another advantage Burnett has over Lackey is his ratio of ground balls to fly balls, with the latter besting the former by a margin of 1.55-1.21 for their careers.

Other than those minor differences, however, these pitchers are very similar. Should Lackey get more money than Burnett? No, I don't think so. But you never get what you don't ask for, so Lackey (or perhaps more accurately, his agent, Steve Hilliard) made a wise comparison and then tacked on a little bit. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lackey earn more than $15MM per year, and if he could be had at that price for fewer than five years, I think it'd be a bargain.

The Yankees have met with Lackey and appear unlikely to pursue him. However, given the paucity of front-line starters on the free agent market, he could go to the first team to get frustrated with the Roy Halladay whale hunt.

Around the Yankee Universe: Typical Jeter

Ed Valentine — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:30:48 -0000

More photos » by David Goldman - AP

New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter holds the 2009 Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year trophy after an award ceremony in New York on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2009.

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Derek Jeter's comments about winning the Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year award were typical Jeter. Classy and humble. In other words, I am sure they will provide fodder for the legion of Jeter bashers to find something silly to say about the Yankee captain.

Here is some of what Jeter said.

"I thought the cover came out nice. The only thing that I thought was missing from that were my parents on both sides," Jeter said. "Even if you don't see them, just know that they're there beside me at all times."

Yep. Exactly the type of thing you would expect him to say.

Yes, even the Yankees have a budget

And over the next couple of days general manager Brian Cashman will find out what that is.

By the time general manager Brian Cashman drops his bags near the door of a hotel suite in Indianapolis next week, the Yankees will have a better idea of just how much they can spend plugging the holes of a World Series-winning roster.

"Once I get some firm numbers, I can go ahead and start putting together some ideas," Cashman said.

The Yankees were set to gather in Tampa, Fla., on Thursday and Friday of this week to discuss the parameters of their offseason budget, which will be sizable but not as extravagant as it was last winter, when New York shelled out a combined $423.5 million to land CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira.

Yankees scouring reliever market

The Yankees have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Brandon Lyon, according to major-league sources. The Yankees likely will express interest in all of the top available late-inning relievers — lefty Mike Gonzalez, righties Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano and Jose Valverde — if they haven't already.

My take: It doesn't take a genius to figure out the Yankees will at least kick the tires on the reliever market. With both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain ticketed for the rotation, it's a no-brainer. Of course, it's also pretty easy to make the argument that the Yankees already have a ton of young, talented arms and don't need to bring in a veteran.

(Hat tip to MLB Trade Rumors)

Talking about Johnny Damon

The free-agent outfielder apparently thinks not being offered arbitration by the Yankees is a good thing.
River Avenue Blues says if Damon leaves, Mike Cameron would be the perfect short-term replacement. My take: We have heard Cameron's name connected to the Yankees for so long now I have to think that if Damon isn't re-signed this would be a strong possibility. And I guess I could live with it for a year.

A.J. Burnett makes pitch for Halladay

Here is Burnett talking about the Toronto ace.

"I think it's time for him to get a fresh start," Burnett said Monday. "He's paid his dues there, been the face of the organization, done everything they've asked him to do and more. At this point in his career, I think he just wants to win."

My take: I am on record as being in favor of bringing Halladay to the Bronx. In reality, though, I don't think there is much chance Burnett will get his wish.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:40:34 -0000

by Al Behrman - AP

Today is Ryan Braun's 26th birthday. We should all celebrate today by going out and buying a Reme...yeah, I can't even suggest that with a straight face.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while Doug Melvin works the phones.

Casey McGehee finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and I must admit that's much better than I expected, even though he was third on my ballot (FanShot). With that said, Brewed Sports has a new word for teams that hold onto players like McGehee too long.

By the way, if you've ever doubted the significance of the compensation picks given to teams for losing free agents: NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan was a compensation pick in 2006, after the Marlins lost A.J. Burnett to the Blue Jays.

The exclusive window for teams to negotiate with their own free agents ends on Friday, and it's possible the Brewer drawing the most interest is the most unlikely one: Craig Counsell has reportedly been contacted by 12 teams, and may be able to land a multi-year deal. Counsell had a very nice season in 2009, but if someone gives the 39-year-old utility infielder more than one season of guaranteed money, I hope it's not the Brewers.

Edwin Jackson's name is coming up a fair amount lately, as he may very well be the best combination of high upside and low cost on either the free agent or trade market this offseason. With that said, View From Bernie's Chalet isn't completely sold on Jackson, and wonders if trading for him would be a mistake.

Speaking of pitchers with a potentially high upside, Jorge Says No! has a look at the potential market for Ben Sheets. He lists eight teams that could be interested, and that list doesn't include the Brewers.

Pat Lackey of MLB FanHouse has an overview of the Brewer offseason that features some themes you've likely heard before: The Brewers need pitching, Jarrod Washburn could be a candidate, etc.

As I was working on the Fall/Winter League Update this morning, I noticed a surprise: Carlos Gomez made his debut on Sunday in the Dominican League. Follow the link to see how he and the rest of the Brewers have performed over the last couple of days.

Speaking of active Brewer prospects, you could get one more chance to see a few of them on TV this fall: Saturday's AFL Championship Game will be televised on MLB Network. I wish MLB Network would televise a bunch more AFL games: I was out of the house for the only other telecast, and I'll be missing this one, too.

If you're watching on Saturday, though, you might get to see Lorenzo Cain play for Peoria. Project Prospect ranked him 10th among center field prospects.

Just one note on the transaction wire:

Reds: Signed Ramon Hernandez to a one year deal with a vesting option for 2011.

FanGraphs has a list of all of this year's minor league free agents, a veritable "Who's Who" of guys you'd forgotten were still around. I haven't had a chance to peruse the list yet, but Lookout Landing took the opportunity to remind us all that there's no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect.

How much is too much roster manipulation? The Twins recently added reliever Juan Morillo to their 40-man roster, but not for reasons you'd expect. Morillo was due to become a minor league free agent, but the Twins retained control over his rights so they could sell him to a Japanese League team and pocket his transfer fee, likely to be around $500k.

Putting together an All-Decade Team is hard, but some people make it harder than it needs to be. MLB Notebook, for example, put Francisco Cordero in the bullpen of their All Decade team, but left out Trevor Hoffman. Cordero has had a pretty nice decade, but since the start of the 2000 season Hoffman leads him by 113 saves and half a run in ERA.

On this day in 1997, the Brewers traded lefty reliever Mike Myers to the Rockies for Curtis Leskanic. The deal worked out pretty well for the Crew: Leskanic posted a 3.01 ERA in 169 games as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Ryan Braun, who turns 26. Braun is now a two-time All Star starter, a two-time Silver Slugger winner, and in 2009 he was in the top ten in the NL in batting average, slugging, OPS, ABs, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, RBI, extra base hits and HBP.

Oh, and how much easier would it be to travel if road maps were colored like subway maps? (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Catching up on SBN awards

Ed Valentine — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:00:43 -0000

It is awards time around Major League Baseball these days. Not to be outdone, the baseball bloggers here at SB Nation held their own awards voting.

I know they aren't official. But, kinda fun to see how our results compare with the official voting.

Here is how it broke down, according to our bloggers.

AL MVP -- Joe Mauer
NL MVP -- Albert Pujols
AL Rookie of the Year -- Elvis Andrus
NL Rookie of the Year -- Tommy Hanson
AL Cy Young -- Zack Grienke
NL Cy Young -- Tim Lincecum
AL Manager of the Year -- Mike Scioscia
NL Manager of the Year -- Jim Tracy

Keep reading for a few notes that actually involve our New York Yankees.

Curtis Granderson? Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News makes an outstanding argument for why the Yankees should forget about trading for the Detroit Tigers center fielder.

To me, this would be a mistake given what Detroit would likely be asking for. Granderson is a good player and an even better person, but as we saw this year, pitching is what wins championships.

Besides, go take a look at Granderson’s numbers the past three seasons - he was an absolute superstar in 2007, but he’s declined in each of the past two years. Not a good sign. He’s a strikeout machine (141 or more in three of the past four seasons) who can’t hit lefties (he hit .183 with two home runs and nine RBI in 180 at-bats last season), making him anything but a complete player.

If Brian Cashman decides to deal his top prospects - Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero, in particular - he better make sure it’s the right deal. Outfield isn’t really the Yankees’ need right now. They can easily sign back Johnny Damon and go to war with the same trio they had this year when they won the World Series.

If Cashman is going to trade Jackson and/or Montero, it’s got to be for Roy Halladay or another stud starting pitcher. The Yankees are intrigued by John Lackey, but not to the point where they want to give him $90 million. Adding Halladay to a rotation with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett would put the Yankees in position to be the overwhelming favorite, and Halladay has already proven his ability to dominate in the AL East.

I missed this the other day, but when Brian Cashman was talking about the possible roles of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in 2010, he said neither pitcher will have an innings limit if they are starters. Hooray! No more training wheels.
Hideki Matsui may be a hero in Japan, but his agent says he won't be playing in his native country next season.
Former New York Yankee John Wetteland hospitalized after possible suicide attempt

The Yankees and John Lackey -- a little more speculation

Ed Valentine — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:39:03 -0000

IF the New York Yankees pursue an expensive free agent who did not just help them win a World Series -- and at this point that appears to be a big IF -- the early speculation is that their target will be Angels' starting pitcher John Lackey.

From Jon Heyman of SI.com

The world champion Yankees have top free-agent pitcher John Lackey on their free-agent shopping list, sources said. The Yankees aren't expected to be as aggressive this winter on the free market as last offseason and they haven't firmed up all their plans as yet, but one league source said of Lackey, "He's definitely on their radar.''

Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett's $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey. Although, one person close to Lackey -- whose offer to stay with the Angels this spring was for less than $40 million over three years on top of this year's $10 million salary -- indicated the longtime Angels right-hander sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett. Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA for the Angels last year and has been their ace for some of his eight seasons there.

Even if postseason hero Andy Pettitte returns to the Yankees -- and he told a few teammates he believes he'll come back for one more year, though there's no definitive word on this -- the Yankees envision themselves looking at the starting-pitching market

We are hearing a lot already about how GM Brian Cashman wants to reduce the payroll. Of course, we have heard that for a couple of years now. From an unlikely source -- the Orange County Register -- comes a voice opining that the Yankee GM should not bat an eye when it comes to his team's payroll.

Should he be embarrassed? No more than Yao Ming should be of his height advantage. While it’s certainly something that we can use to make fun of him, the Yankees’ payroll advantage is something for all of us to gnash our teeth over, not Cashman.

The bigger question for the rest of the league is whether it is true that "this winter’s top priority for Cashman is to substantially reduce the Yankee payroll." The Yankees will shed about $50 million in contracts, and give about $15 million in automatic raises. To reduce payroll by even $20 million would likely leave them out of the bidding for Lackey, Holliday and Bay. Which seems awfully unlikely.

By the way, in case you didn't notice Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui were among the Yankees who filed for free agency Monday.
One more free-agent note. MLB Trade Rumors is out with its list of the top 50 free agents, and its guesses as to where they will end up. By the way, their prediction is that Lackey ends up a Yankee.

Yankees 'boring' this winter? Never

Ed Valentine — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 13:53:46 -0000

The euphoria over winning a 27th World Series title has already begun to fade, just a little. The focus is turning to 2010, and trying to win No. 28.

What will GM Brian Cashman do this winter? We know what most of the questions are. Hideki Matsui? Johnny Damon? Andy Pettitte? The makeup of the starting rotation?

I have been a Yankee fan for the entirety of the Steinbrenner era, and the one thing I can say is the off-season is never dull around the Bronx Bombers.

Yet, word seeping out is that might just be the case this year.

Here is Joel Sherman.

The Yankees found $181 million lying around last offseason, and made a late, victorious bid to corral Mark Teixeira, so never say never when it comes to the Yankees and spending.

But the initial read as the winter bazaar opens is that the Yankees do not intend to make a play for the three biggest free agents: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday and John Lackey. After signing the three biggest free agents last offseason (Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett), the Yankees just might be boring this winter.

This is not about need, because corner outfield and starting pitcher are priorities to fortify what is now a champion. But based on conversations with multiple Yankees officials, I sense that financially and philosophically the Yankees will not big-game hunt in free agency.

Bob Klapisch agrees.

The Yankees will look remarkably similar in 2010, which is bad news for the rest of the industry. The free-agent crop is thin, and it’s unlikely that any team will dramatically remake itself during the off-season — and that includes the Bombers, who figure to stay away from the likes of John Lackey and Matt Holliday.
The Yankees had $75 million coming off the books after ’08, which allowed them to re-direct that cash toward CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. There’ll be no similar windfall this winter, and Cashman would have a hard time justifying another payroll surge to the Steinbrenner family.

Others, though, are not buying that the Yankees won't be buying this winter. I can't blame them. We have heard it before.

Among them is Mike Lupica.

No one except the bookkeepers knows the real finances for the Yankees, how much they are propped up by YES, how much they make - or lose - just on the baseball operation, how much debt they incurred building the Eighth Wonder of the World. There are people in baseball who seriously wonder how long this team is actually going to stay in the Steinbrenner family.

We just know this: They sell winning and are willing to pay for it. There's nothing baseball can do to stop it, because all that the Players Association really has left is that they never gave in on a salary cap.

We'll hear now that the Yankees have got to get younger and can't keep both Damon and Matsui, and how they really aren't all that interested in Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. That's what we'll hear. But we'll see about all that. This is the one about how money can't buy happiness, but it certainly will finance an exhaustive search.

Here is an outside opinion, from John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Reports out of New York, one from longtime New York Post columnist Joel Sherman, suggest the Yankees might restrict their spending this offseason and won't hotly pursue elite free agents, maybe even try to pull that modest payroll under $200 million.

With all due respect to Sherman, who probably has more sources inside the Yankees than Hal Steinbrenner, we observers who think outside the Bronx are a little skeptical and offer two words of warning:

Just wait.

The Yankees can't help themselves.

Whether they buy or not, the Yankees won't be boring this winter. They never are.

The 2009 World Series: The Boring One

David S. Cohen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:00:46 -0000

We're now on our second day post-World Series, and I can't fight off this nagging feeling that the championship series I just watched was, well, pretty damn boring.

Yes, it was a World Series, and with the Phillies' long record of futility, there's really no ground for complaining when the team just makes it to the post-season, let alone to the World Series. But, in the context of a best-of-7 match for the best team in baseball, it's hard to say that this Series had much going for it.

Sure, this was the first World Series to go past 6 games since 2003. And the Yankees won their first championship in their new stadium. And Chase Utley tied the record for most home runs in a World Series. And Hideki Matsui was dominant. And Mariano Rivera was, well, Mariano Rivera. But all of those things added in with the rest of the Series just didn't add up to anything exciting or memorable.

The best way to capture this sentiment is the following: over the course of the six games, there were 2 lead changes. That's it. Even worse is that both of them occurred in drabs over the course of the middle innings. Otherwise, once a team took the lead in this series, the other team never got ahead. Of course, this doesn't mean that it wasn't good baseball, but it does mean that from a fan's perspective, this isn't particularly exciting baseball.

The overall series momentum also didn't provide much excitement. The Phillies took the early 1-0 lead, but then the Yankees won 3 in a row. Had the Phillies won their second in Game 4 instead of Game 5, the Series would have taken on a new level of excitement. But, that's not what happened, and by the time the Phillies had 2 wins, the Yankees were heading home looking for one to clinch. Momentum really didn't shift, and the Series ended as it seemed it would without any real surprise.

Looking at the particulars of each game confirms this, as only Game 4 had much real excitement. Yet, even that excitement lasted only a very short period of time. Here are each of the games re-capped, along with the mostly uni-directional win probability graphs. I've also given each game an excitement ranking on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being Joe-Carter-Game-6-in-1993 exciting and 1 being a mid-August Pirates/Padres 6-2 snooze-fest:

Game 1: Cliff Lee dominated the Yankees, holding them to one unearned run. That's a wonderful pitching performance, but it's not high drama. Chase Utley's two home runs against CC Sabathia were exciting, but the rest of the offense was dormant until the last two innings. And, at that point, the game was pretty much over. The Yankees had no chance against Lee, and the graph below shows it. The only thing going for the game on the excitement meter was that it was Game 1, which seemed like a big deal at the time. Excitement factor: 6.

via www.fangraphs.com

Game 2: One of our two lead-change games, the Phillies took an early lead, but then Pedro Martinez slowly gave it back, one run at a time, until the Yankees had a lead that Mariano Rivera protected with a 2 inning save. The lead change was exciting, as was some good pitching from Martinez and A.J. Burnett, but the drip-drip run-scoring from the Yankees along with the certitude of the Rivera save worked against this game having much excitement to it. The steady incline of the win probably graph confirms this. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 3: Here we get out second, and last, lead change of the Series. The Phillies took an early 3-0 lead behind a dominant Cole Hamels. But then it all fell apart in the middle innings, as the Yankees outscored the Phillies 8-1 over the course of innings 4 through 8. The Phillies' feeble comeback just assured another Rivera shut-down appearance in the ninth. This game was over in the fifth, and the entire stadium knew it (and the graph confirms). Excitement factor: 3.

Game 4: This was the only high-drama game of the Series. The Phillies staged a late inning comeback against Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain, who looked great in the eighth inning until Pedro Feliz shockingly tied the game with a home run. Brad Lidge entered the ninth and looked great as well, but followed Chamberlain's pattern of not being able to put away the last batter. Lidge allowed 3 in the ninth, and another Rivera appearance assured the Yankees' third win. This is the only win probably graph with much of a jagged edge. Excitement factor: 8.

Game 5: This game was over early, as the Phillies took a big lead with Cliff Lee pitching. He wasn't as sharp as Game 1, but he was pitching well enough and the offense put up enough runs that the game was not much in doubt. The Yankees did mount a bit of a comeback and made the ninth inning tense, but it was too little, too late. That ninth inning comeback rescues this game from a 1, as the virtually flatlined win probably graph would seem to merit. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 6: This was the worst of the bunch. The only thing it had going for it was that it was Hideki Matsui's 6 RBI and that it was the last game. Otherwise, the Yankees took an early lead, the Phillies' hitters couldn't hit with men on, and everyone knew Rivera was going to come in for more than 3 outs, possibly 6. He ultimately came in for 5 outs and closed the door to finish the Series, as we all knew he would. The graph below merits a 1 on the excitement scale, but the championship win boosts this game, but only slightly as it was a complete bore. Excitement factor: 2.

The average excitement factor here is 4.5 on a 10 point scale. Of course, this is an arbitrary and subjective scale, but take a look at the fangraphs collectively and note the extreme absence of much fluctuation at all. There's no two ways about it: this was a boring series.

Of course, I'd feel completely different had the Phillies won it all . . . .

My Maudlin' Career

the red baron — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:29:27 -0000

View full size photo »

I didn't really realise it last week, but just the other day it sort of hit me when I looked at the date: I just celebrated two years of writing for this wonderful site. My very first front page post was on Halloween of 2007, and seeing as how we are now in the glorious month of November in Year of Our Lord 2009, that's two damned years I've been cluttering up the interwebs with my peculiar ramblings. And so, seeing as how I am the sort of person who simply cannot resist nostalgia or making lists of things, I thought I would go back through all the things I've written here at VEB and pick out my favourites. It also doesn't hurt, of course, that very little is actually going on in Cardinal land at this particular moment.

So I started rolling back through all my past posts, and something began to become apparent as I did: I'm sort of a depressing dude. Most of my stuff I think is really pretty good tends to be of the wistful, sad, and slightly bitter emotive variety. Don't get me wrong; the idea I am a bit of a bummer is not exactly news to me, as people have been telling me that my whole life. However, it was a bit surprising to see the proof staring me so clearly in the face.

Regardless, I am proud to bring you my personal Best Of collection out of sheer arrogance and hubris. (And also maybe a little because I was interested to see if I've gotten any better at this, but mostly the gigantic ego thing.) In reverse chronological order (I think):

Reflection -- recent post about the end of our season
Talk Talk Talk-- the very first chat I tried
Drafting a Masterpiece-- reviewing the first day of the 2009 draft
Swingin', and Not Just Dick-- there is, in fact, a toaster involved in this post
Life Lenses-- in which I discuss the departure of Adam Kennedy
God Bless Us, Every One -- Christmas 2008
The Team Stripped Bare By Its Suitors, Even-- an interesting hypothetical, and my favourite title
Good Bye, Halcyon Days -- mourning for last summer, and my second favourite title
Not With a Bang, but a Whimper-- Jason Isringhausen
Saturday Morning Coming Down-- a discussion of Mark McGwire and me forgetting how to spell the word rhythm

And, just for funsies, my first main page story, and the very first diary I ever put up here.

Hopefully you don't find this too very self-indulgent, though I'm certain it probably is.

As for the current news of the day:

I am of the belief the Yankees' strategy of using only three pitchers and throwing them on short rest is going to backfire on them. We already saw A.J. Burnett get crushed pitching on three days' rest, and I'm honestly expecting something similar from Pettitte tonight. I still expect the Yankees to win in seven, because I do believe CC Sabathia will roll pretty much no matter what and Cole Hamels seems a bit lost in the wilderness to me, but I also think New York has made the series much tougher than it needed to be. Historically we can see pitchers tend to struggle on short rest, regardless of the era in question (relatively speaking, of course; if a pitcher is usually going on three days' rest, then two days' rest hurts hime), and I think Girardi has weakened his team's position unnecessarily. What do all of you think? I know this concept of only needing three starters in the playoffs has been Fritz' pet peeve for a while now; we now get to see just how viable such a strategy really is.

I don't much care for the Iwamura deal from the Pirates' side of things; it just seems like they're still treading water. Dave Cameron disagrees with me, for whatever it's worth.(I also forgot Jack Wilson got traded to the Mariners; the perils of writing in a hurry, you know.) I do wish like hell whoever it was who started stumping for Ben Zobrist a couple years ago had more pull with the front office; the guy could have been had for a song as recently as last season, now he has to be considered untouchable. Interestingly enough, VEB has been right in wanting to acquire both Jayson Werth and Zobrist at various points in time before they broke out. I know there were some here last year (myself included), who would have liked to see Johnny Mo try to pick up Huston Street on the cheap while he was struggling. I remember the advocacy of several posters (again, myself included), for a deal that would have brought Cliff Lee to the Cards after his disastrous 2007 campaign. (In fact, Lee was one of my personal crusades that offseason.) I believe the idea was to move Scott Rolen for Lee and possibly try to get Jhonny Peralta involved somehow with other inducements going from St. Louis to Cleveland. I was a big fan of Carlos Quentin, and I know jillsinmo (who seems to have largely disappeared, sadly), stumped for him for awhile as well. My point? If you happen to work in the Cardinals' front office and are reading this (and I know you guys are), you may want to take a good hard look at any buy-low guys we come up with this offseason. Our track record is remarkably good.

Of course, if you had listened to us last year, we might very well have signed Ben Sheets for a lost season, so at least make sure you look at the X-rays first.

My predicition, guaranteed to be right, for Game 6 tonight: Phillies 7, Yankees 3. Pedro goes 5 inning, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk. JA Happ relieves him and holds the Yankees down. Pettitte gets knocked around, failing to get out of the third inning and giving up 5 runs.

Have a lovely day, everyone.

The Baron's Playlist for the 4th of November, 2009

"Lovelier Girl" -- Beach House

"Jesus Walking on the Water" -- Violent Femmes

"Mr. Tough" -- Yo La Tengo

"Pale Blue Eyes" -- The Velvet Underground

"These Days" -- Nico

Girardi made the right call

Ed Valentine — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:23:47 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi takes the game ball from starter A.J. Burnett during the third inning of Game 5 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Philadelphia.

Browse more photos »

Everybody has an opinion on New York Yankee Manager Joe Girardi's decision to stick with three starting pitchers in the World Series, meaning A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia (if necessary) are all working on short rest.

Mine is this. I love it.

Of course we know it did not work out last night, when Burnett imploded and gave up six runs in two innings. Did that have anything to do with pitching on short rest? Impossible to say.

What you can say is this. Burnett had pitched on short rest four times previously in his career, and had pitched to a 2.33 ERA. Most likely last night was just a case of the 'Bad A.J.' showing up an inopportune time.

Still, love the fact that Girardi is going to sink or swim the rest of the way with his best guys.

In that regard, I have to agree with Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

A.J. Burnett was awful in Game 5, and while many will now second-guess Joe Girardi’s decision to start him on short rest, you won’t see any of that in this space. Burnett said he felt fine physically, he just couldn’t throw strikes. He went through the same thing on regular rest in Anaheim in Game 5 of the ALCS, so I’ll take him at his word that the short rest wasn’t the cause for his brutal outing. He had a terrible game, plain and simple. Can anybody tell me that they would have felt as confident with Chad Gaudin - who has thrown one inning in the postseason and 2 1/3 innings since Sept. 28 - starting Game 5 of the World Series? If you can answer that question with a "Yes," then you should have your head examined. If anything, the decision to use Burnett on short rest is an indictment of the Yankees’ lack of pitching depth, something that took a huge hit with Chien-Ming Wang’s injury and Joba Chamberlain’s terrible second half. If they had a fourth starter they trusted, it would have been an easy call to start him in Game 4 or 5. But they don’t, so they’re going to live or die with the three guys that got them to this point.

To me, that perfectly covers all of the essential points.

Now, will I be nervous Wednesday night when Andy Pettitte takes the mound? Sure. But, I'm still happier about an extra start from Pettitte -- even on short rest -- than I would be simply have seen Girardi mostly forfeit a game by using Gaudin.

If Pettitte doesn't get it done Wednesday I will be on the verge of a breakdown Thursday for Game 7. That, though, is the game Brian Cashman signed CC Sabathia to pitch. So, you still have to feel good about the Yankees right now.

They need one win. Philly needs two. In Yankee Stadium. Advantage Yankees.