SB Nation - Josh Towers

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:18:55 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

Craig Counsell is expected to re-sign today.

Some things to read while John Tesh rocks the NBA on NBC theme (h/t Amy K. Nelson).

Randy Wolf is expected to undergo a physical this morning and once he does, expect his contract to become official sometime later today. That might not be today's only announcement, though: the Brewers are also expected to finalize a deal with Craig Counsell today. With Counsell, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee all on the roster, the Brewers' Opening Day infield is probably set, barring injury or trade.

Meanwhile, Mike Rivera is surprised to be looking for work after being non-tendered over the weekend. He thought the decision not to retain Jason Kendall would give him an edge as the only returning catcher familiar with the Brewer pitching staff.

As of this writing, roughly 4% of voters in the poll on your right listed the decision to offer Dave bush a 2010 contract as the one Brewer move from this weekend they would change. That's not exactly a large chunk of the fanbase, but In-Between Hops is taking on that vocal minority, making the case that the Brewers made the right move by giving Bush another shot.

If you missed Morineko's Weekend Mug, follow the link over to it for full coverage of the Brewers' arbitration decisions, and a link to this list of all the non-tenders leaguewide.

Looking back at last week, Jon Heyman ranked the Brewers among the Winter Meeting winners. Meanwhile, Marc Hulet of The Baseball Analysts listed Rule 5 selection Chuck Lofgren in the "Why Bother?" category.

The more I think about it, the more I think Lofgren will have a tough task ahead of him if he's going to make the team out of spring training. With Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Claudio Vargas and Mitch Stetter back, there's only two bullpen spots left that are potentially available (barring injury), and Chris Smith, John Axford, Chris Narveson, Zach Braddock and now Lofgren fighting for them. I like Lofgren's potential and hope the Brewers will get an opportunity to realize it, but right now he might be the third or fourth best lefty in the bullpen competition.

If you have a vague interest in Brewer baseball, but wish there was less analysis and more profanity on this site, then Miller Park Drunk's RUNNING series might be just the ticket for you. Follow these links for bad Prince Fielder jokes, some fan fiction involving Ryan Braun trying to rap, and a vague musical reference to Rickie Weeks.

In the minors: Baseball Intellect has video footage of some at bats featuring Cameron Garfield, Cutter Dykstra and Josh Prince from a Pioneer League game back in July. They're pay-only, but there are worse ways to spend $2.95.

If you were gone this weekend, you didn't miss the opportunity to help select a center fielder and catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. Voting closes at 4 pm today for center fielders and 4 pm tomorrow for catchers. We'll open the voting for the final starting outfield spot later today.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Signed catcher John Buck to a one-year deal worth $2 million, signed Joey Gathright to a minor league deal,
Braves: Signed Matt Diaz to a one year, $2.55 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
D-Backs: Re-signed infielder Augie Ojeda to a one year deal, and avoided arbitration with Blaine Boyer.
Dodgers: Signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal.
Giants: Signed shortstop-turned-pitcher Tony Pena Jr. to a minor league deal.
Indians: Re-signed pitchers Adam Miller and Anthony Reyes to minor league deals.
Marlins: Signed catcher Ronny Paulino to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Nationals: Re-signed Scott Olsen to a one year deal. Also signed pitcher Ryan Speier to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed pitcher Kevin Correia to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed Ronny Cedeno to a one year, $1.125 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rangers: Signed infielder Esteban German to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration.
Rays: Avoided arbitration with catcher Dioner Navarro and pitchers Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Lance Cormier and Randy Choate.
Royals: Avoided arbitration with pitchers Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies. They also signed pitcher Bruce Chen and catcher Vance Wilson to minor league deals.
White Sox: Signed J.J. Putz to a one year deal.

Meanwhile, the market heated up immediately for Yankees non-tender Chien-Ming Wang, with Ken Rosenthal reporting that six teams have already expressed interest. He doesn't list the teams, but I wouldn't be surprised to discover the Brewers are one of them.

I promise, I'm not going to mention it every time someone says something new about Jason Kendall. In fact, I might try to go the rest of the week without mentioning him at all. With that said, I thought these three links about him were interesting:

Joe Posnanski has a look at the potential Opening Day lineup for the 2010 Royals, now including Kendall.
He also compares Kendall to a superball on the field at Cleveland Municipal Stadium.
Reminding us all how far and how fast Kendall has fallen, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? named Kendall the Pirate Catcher of the Decade.

Weeks ago I linked to a post from minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis, mentioning the challenges in finding quality, healthy food in minor league clubhouses. It looks like that problem may be on its way to being resolved: After discussing it at the Winter Meetings, several teams are making an effort to provide healthier options, and remove the constant flow of junk.

If you're a fan of sabermetrics, or just want to learn more about them, I've got two links for you today:

TangoTiger has a look at OPS+, and some minor adjustments that could be made to it to make it more useful than some other advanced metrics.
That post links to this one, Big League Stew's beginner's guide to wOBA. I learned a fair amount by reading that one.

Gorman Thomas celebrated a birthday over the weekend, and while this probably isn't what he had in mind for a gift, David Chalk of Seventh Inning 'Stache has inducted him into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

On this day in 1998, the Brewers acquired Alex Ochoa from the Twins for a minor leaguer named Darrell Nicholas. Ochoa spent one season as a Brewer, hitting .300/.404/.466 before being traded to the Reds for Mark Sweeney after the season.

Happy birthday today to:

Former Seattle Pilot and 1970 Brewer Greg Goossen, who turns 64.
Dave Nilsson, who appeared in 837 games as a Brewer and turns 40.
Marcus Jensen, who appeared in 18 games over two tours as a Brewer and turns 37.

Sean Forman, founder of Baseball Reference, is also celebrating his birthday today. You can help him celebrate by sponsoring a page. I know someone around here will want this one.

Drink up.

Dodgers Sign Josh Towers To Minor League Deal

Eric Stephen — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 03:25:54 -0000

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Josh Towers' best season was 2005, when he went 13-12 with a 3.71 ERA in Toronto (image via Wikimedia Commons

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After the Yankees acquired someone, in Jamie Hoffmann, the Dodgers did not want on their 40-man roster, the Dodgers returned the favor, in a way.

The Dodgers have signed pitcher Josh Towers to a minor league deal, according to the Associated Press. Towers, who turns 33 in February, put up a 2.74 ERA in 19 appearances (18 starts) with the Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees in 2009. He started 2009 in the Nationals' system, but was released after just one appearance with Triple A Syracuse. The Yankees called up Towers twice during the season, but he appeared in just two September games in mop-up duty. He is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, averaging 1.5 walks and 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings in his major league career.

Towers has a split contract that will pay him $700,000 in the major leagues, and $100,000 while in the minor leagues.

How Efficient and Effective Were the Colorado Rockies in 2009?

Jabberwocky — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 02:52:01 -0000

A common theme for Purple Row Academy this entire year has been looking at ways to quantify a player's value to a team, especially through the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat used notably by FanGraphs. For those who don't understand what WAR is or how it is calculated, here's a crash course from previous PR Academy sessions:

Position Players

Pitchers

By looking at the sum for a team of each player on that team's value, one can attempt to measure both how efficient and how effective that team was. But WAR is by definition an individual statistic and judging efficiency by WAR alone would be only the sum of individuals. This is problematic because seldom in baseball does the sum of the individual players' successes accurately measure the team's performance.

A metric measuring team performance to compare to the individual performance calculated by WAR is therefore what we require. What can we use to measure how well and how efficiently the team performed? There's always the simple end of season payroll vs. number of wins linear comparison to figure out MLB payroll efficiency using 3 year averages from 2006 to 2008, which I did a few months back.

But that is assuming that all wins are equal. As any economist worth their salt will tell you, this is patently false. In light of that, I'll go back a little farther back in PR Academy sessions to the concept of Marginal Wins.

If I had to explain this concept in two sentences, I'd say that MP and MW are basically setting a floor (minimum possible outcome) for both payroll (in 2009, $11.2 million--which happens with 25 players on the active roster plus 3 on the DL making the minimum of $400k) and wins (30% of all games, or 48.6 wins, which all but one team has accomplished since the implementation of the amateur draft in 1965). The farther the team reaches from this minimum plateau of wins, the more difficult (not to mention important and expensive) each incremental, or marginal, win becomes.

Marginal Payroll and Marginal Wins

The creator of the system, BP's Doug Pappas, explains that "the Marginal Payroll/Marginal Wins (MP/MW) system evaluates the efficiency of a club's front office by comparing its payroll and record to the performance it could expect to attain by fielding a roster of replacement-level players, all of whom are paid the major league minimum salary" (basically Wins Over Replacement Team). The formula is:

(club payroll - (28 x major league minimum) / ((winning percentage - .300) x 162)

The first half of the equation measures the club's marginal payroll and the second measures the marginal wins. The lower the number, the more efficiently the club spent its cash. Comparing this number to the club's actual winning percentage provides another way to evaluate teams. As Pappas explains:

Low MP/MW, good record: Efficient ballclub (2003 Marlins, Athletics)
Low MP/MW, bad record: Not spending enough to compete (2003 Devil Rays)
High MP/MW, good record: Spending its way to the top (2003 Yankees)
High MP/MW, bad record: Poorly-run club (2003 Mets, Rangers)

Since a team's payroll fluctuates throughout the year and I use Opening Day Payroll (ODP) to calculate MP/MW, this metric is probably best used to evaluate the efficiency of the front office's offseason moves and as a gauge for a team's expectations going into the year.

To emphasize the inequity of wins, this is what I said back then:

Though it can be (and has been) done by a small payroll team, going from 60 to 80 wins in MLB is an insignificant accomplishment on a macro level because those teams still miss the playoffs. In moving from 80 to 90 wins, however, a team goes from an also-ran to a bona fide playoff contender. After all, 68 of 78 teams (87%) in the last ten years that crossed the 90 win threshold made the playoffs, making these marginal wins much more important and therefore expensive.

For example, the average value of a marginal win in 2008 was about $2.7 million, but the value of a win getting you from 89-90 wins was worth almost $6 million.

It isn't a simple concept by any means, but I've found that MP/MW or WORT has produced some excellent results. I'll show how the Rockies did by this metric after the jump.

Rockies Historical MP/MW Performance

Using the formula above and FanGraphs WAR data, I've already crunched some numbers for the Rockies as to their efficiency from 2002-2008 (which is as far back as FanGraphs WAR data goes back). That analysis is here:

Given that data, I'll break down the Rockies' 2009 season in a similar fashion.

Rockies Historical Dollar Win Values

The Efficiency of the 2009 Colorado Rockies

Opening Day Payroll: $75,201,000

This season marked the highest ODP on record for the Rockies as a franchise, eclipsing the mark set in 2001 of $71,541,334. This was largely due to the arbitration raises given to six players. With an eye toward next year, the Rockies' ODP for 2010 looks to be higher due to the fact that they have 13 potential arbitration cases coming up this offseason (though they'll likely only have 10 returning to the team).

W-L Record: 92-70

This of course also marks a franchise record, besting the 90-73 mark of the 2007 team. This team was the best compensated Rockies team, and as their record bore out, the best performing team as well.

Linear Payroll Efficiency: $817,402

This number was found simply by dividing the Rockies' ODP by their win total. While this number is higher than other seasons in past years, this doesn't take into account the fact that ODPs have risen dramatically since the franchise's inception. For example, the Rockies won 67 games in 1993 with an ODP of $8,829,000 (LPE of $131,776). This is yet another reason that efficiency should be judged on the basis of marginal wins.

Marginal Payroll:

Formula: ((ODP) - (28 * League Minimum) = (($75,201,000 - (28 * 400,000) = $64,001,000

Again, this represents the amount that the Rockies spent above MLB's price floor ($11.2 million). This year's total is second most in team history to 2001's $65,941,334.

Marginal Wins:

Formula: ((Winning % - .300) * (# of games played)) = (.568 - .300) * (162) = 43.4 MW

This number represents the amount of wins the Rockies produced about the floor set by Pappas of 30% of games won (48.6). This total is the most in franchise history, defeating 2007's 41.1 MW total.

Marginal Payroll / Marginal Wins:

$64,001,000 / 43.4 = $1,464,677

This number represents how much money the Rockies spent per marginal win this year. It ranks below 2007 ($1,065,304) and a number of other years in which the Rockies had a much lower MP. With the salary growth in MLB so explosive these last two decades and considering that the cost of a marginal win in 2008 was $2.7 million, the Rockies' MP / MW number is really quite good. Last year, that number would have been fifth in MLB.

Team Hitting WAR: 18.7

On the whole the Rockies ranked 16th in MLB in this category, though AL teams have a leg up on NL teams because the above number includes hitting by pitchers, who "contributed" a total of -3.7 hitting WAR to the Rockies. That's why they're paid to pitch and not hit. Of course, it also includes Garrett Atkins (-0.5), who owes the Rockies $2.1 million for his "performance" in 2009. Courtesy of FanGraphs, here's a list of the Rockies' contributors to hitting WAR by player.

What is notable is that the Rockies had six players performing at least at a league average (about 2.0 WAR) level in 2009, the highest FanGraphs has measured (in 2008 we only had 3 such players), but had no superduperstar (Tulo's 5.5 WAR is great, but only ties him for 14th in MLB among hitters and 28th for all players). This makes sense, since a major strength of this team was its depth.

Historically, the Rockies' 18.7 hitting WAR puts them well behind 2007 (22.4 WAR) but bests every other season in the FanGraphs era.

Team Pitching WAR: 23.6

With this total, the Rockies tied the Red Sox for the best pitching from a WAR standpoint in 2009. It goes without saying, but this was the greatest pitching staff the Rockies have ever assembled. Here's the final list of 2009 Rockies pitching WAR contributors.

Of note is that all five members of the Rockies starting rotation posted at least league average performances (that's for any pitcher). Those five by themselves contributed 18.9 WAR! Ubaldo Jimenez's 5.7 WAR season is also by far the greatest Rockies pitching season ever, besting Aaron Cook's 4.7 last year. In addition to the starters' second place in MLB finish in pitching runs above average, the bullpen was sixth in MLB in PRAA.

The challenge next year will be maintaining both this high level of performance and the remarkable health this year of the entire roster.

Total WAR: 42.3

A good measure of a team's efficiency at the end of the year involves comparing its WAR totals to its MP / MW totals. If a team's marginal wins total exceeds its WAR total, then the performance of the team as a whole was greater than that of the sum of its parts.

In the case of the 2009 Rockies, this was certainly the case as Colorado finished with 1.1 more MW than their WAR data would have suggested.

Total Dollar Value of Player Production:

Here is Dave Cameron of Fangraphs on Dollar Win Value:

90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers' $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site. I re-did this for all years going back to 2002, and the dollars per win for each are as follows:

2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win

In other words, Cameron is showing that a free agent, on the whole, cost $4.5 million per WAR as of 2008--whereas an average marginal win in that year cost only $2.7 million. This fact serves to show that looking for marginal wins on the free agent market is an inefficient proposition. It is more efficient to build from within and to get lots of production from young cost-controlled players, as the Rockies have done.

Generally though, this reflection of value is based not on the actual cost of a MW but on the market cost of a MW. As I explained a few months ago:

Due to the nature of the calculation (each WAR in the dollar value calculation being equal to the market cost per MW, which was higher than the average cost per MW), the Rockies are consistently receiving a higher "dollar value" from their roster than their ODP may suggest. However, if this "dollar value" concept would be adjusted to reflect merely the average cost per MW each year (in other words, taking into account all players instead of just free agents), then the "dollar value" numbers would often be below a team's ODP--especially if that team rates low on the MP/MW formula.

According to the "dollar value" concept as FanGraphs has it ($4.5 million per WAR), the Rockies as a collection of individuals produced $190,350,000 of value. Hitters were responsible for $84.15 million while pitchers contributed $106.2 million ($85.05 million of which came from the starting rotation). When the whole team is considered ($4.5 million per MW), the value produced is $195,300,000--again, the whole equaling more than the sum of its parts.

This valuation is assuming that the Rockies had built their team entirely of free agents, which is obviously not the case. Using my "home brew" calculation of $2.7 million per MW (a reflection of all marginal wins, not just FA MW), the Rockies as individuals produced a more realistic $114,245,023 of value. As a team, the Rockies produced $117,215,934. This shows that compared to their ODP in 2009, Colorado had surplus value of $42,014,934--a number which would certainly rank very highly in MLB this year (if I had the time I would prove it), though behind the 2007 squad in terms of efficiency.

Effectiveness

Of course, the Rockies were far from the most efficient team in MLB this year. That title belongs once again to the Florida Marlins, who had a MP/MW ratio in 2009 of $667,552 per MW. But the Marlins were not the most effective team in baseball, as they did not parlay their excellent marginal wins ratio into a playoff berth (and the revenue that comes with it).

My definition of MLB effectiveness gives a heavy weight to playoff appearances and championships. For that reason, I'd argue that the Rockies this year were the most effective club in baseball (with the possible exception of the World Series winner, as long as it isn't the Yankees). And for what it's worth, any of the four teams still alive that win the championship will have done so inefficiently.

The Rockies have created among the highest marginal win totals in MLB despite having a lower-half payroll (18th) and securing a playoff berth. What is remarkable is that the Rockies can say this for the second time in three years. Truly we fans are lucky to be following a smart organization that seems primed to continue their success in the near future.

Scranton done, Miranda up

Travis G — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 04:54:52 -0000

Guess who's elbow that is...

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The Scranton Yankees were swept by the Durham Bulls in the IL finals, dropping the last game, 3-2. Considering they didn't have league MVP Shelley Duncan and starter Josh Towers in the playoffs, their run to the finals was very impressive.

After the game, lefty 1B/DH Juan Miranda was promoted to New York. The Cuban is (supposedly) 26-years-old and has a career minor league line of .280/.366/.474 (.290/.369/.498 this year), including extreme platoon splits (.704 OPS vs. LHP, .900 vs. RHP).

No word yet on any other Scrantonians.

Final Thoughts On Close-Mindedness

James Kannengieser — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:00:12 -0000

In a response to a response to a response to a post I made last week (isn't the Internet great?), Mike Silva of New York Baseball Digest wrote (excerpted):

The Battle of Dueling Baseball Philosophies

To quote the great Vin Scully, "Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." I need to see a player in order to get the entire package. I like to know what people in the game think of him as a person, in the clubhouse, and if he has a reputation of performing in big spots. Also, how will he handle failure?

WAR is a perfect example of assessing a player in a vacuum. It’s a very dangerous method of evaluation. I spoke to a baseball person on Friday and he told me, to his knowledge, this stuff isn’t even used by teams in arbitration. That should tell you something right there.

My first problem with WAR is crediting a "win to an individual player. All sports are won and lost as a team. You can’t tell me Ryan Church is worth two more wins over Jeff Francoeur, because we just don’t know how games would play out if Church stayed in New York and Francoeur in Atlanta.

Next, WAR cites the "average minor league player" as its benchmark. Who is the typical average minor leaguer? Anderson Hernandez? Nelson Figueroa? Sergio Mitre? Josh Towers? Fernando Martinez? Shelley Duncan? Do you Get the point? Average to you and me can mean all different things. We are probably in the same ballpark, but I value a Nelson Figueroa much more than Josh Towers. I also think the gap between Figueroa and Mike Pelfrey is smaller than, lets say, Josh Towers. The fact that defense, a subjective measure to being with, is weighted also gives me pause. The lack of respect given to the position of first base tells you how flawed the stat really is. Ask the greatest infield ever if John Olerud was overrated at first versus Todd Zeile the following year. What about Keith Hernandez and his impact for the late eighties Mets. Do you think the Yankees are better off with Teixeira’s defense at first? I believe excellent defensive first basemen makes all the players around him better by saving throws and cutting down base hits.

There is nothing wrong with using modern statistics like WAR. A good general manager should have a department that focuses on sabermetrics. To not consider all angles of baseball research is unacceptable in this day and age. I believe the sabermetric crowd deserves a seat at the table, but a very small say in the final decision. None of those numbers account for makeup, character, and fortitude.

In the end I believe this is all great debate. Everyone has a point and a valuable piece of information that helps achieve the ultimate goal: a winning ballclub. It’s almost become like American politics where both sides draw a line firmly in the sand and won’t consider some valid points by the other.

If you read the whole piece, it's a pretty measured response. Regardless, the fictional "stats vs. scouts" debate is a major pet peeve, a divide created by the likes of Jon Heyman and propagated by pieces like this. No one questions the existence of intangibles. It would be silly to do so. However, we have no way of knowing what effect these intangibles have on on-field performance. Too often a player's "awesome leadership" or "grit" is discussed only after a team wins (see Derek Jeter and the entire Phillies team). Intangibles cannot be quantified, so I would rather discuss easily researchable concepts like WAR than waste time debating whether or not David Wright is a leader. Are character and fortitude really more important for winning ballgames than hitting, pitching, and fielding? Silva can cite all of the "anonymous baseball persons" he wants in order to tell us that teams don't use metrics like WAR (are these the same sources that declared "Julio Lugo Will Be a Met" and "Mets will be obtaining Adam LaRoche from Boston"?), but the fact remains that stats like this are very real and here to stay.

The replacement level concept is still misunderstood here, and probably always will be. Explaining advanced statistics to talk radio disciples is like Galileo explaining heliocentricity to the 17th Century Catholic Church. One party has made up their mind about the topic and is unwilling to listen to new ideas. Rather than keep an open mind, listen, and ask relevant questions, these types would rather try to poke holes in everything they hear. It's unfortunate.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:57:25 -0000

More photos » by Dave Einsel - AP

Jason Kendall, on one of the rare occasions when his "out making" was a good thing.

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Some things to read instead of hanging out with The Least Interesting Man in the World.

Coming off another series loss that dropped their playoff chances to 4.9%, the Brewers have a day off today to travel home and get ready to resume play tomorrow. When they get there, they'll be joined by new Brewer David Weathers, who was acquired from the Reds for a PTBNL yesterday. Some notes on the move:

Jesus Colome was the 20th Brewer pitcher to appear in a game over the weekend, meaning Weathers will likely be the 21st sometime this week. Before the season, 88% of readers in the Over/Under contest said the Brewers would use more than 19.5 pitchers this season. Congratulations to all of you.
Ken Macha suggested Weathers will be used as an occasional fill in for Todd Coffey in the setup man role.
Weathers and his family don't sound too excited about leaving Cincinnati.
This move could be more than a rental: Weathers has a team option for next season. Exercising that option would be a nice way to get rid of $3.7 million without clogging a toilet.

Another day, another story about Jason Kendall's ineptitude: Mike Rivera got into a game on Saturday and responded by hitting a three run double as part of a night that saw him get on base three times. The Bucky Channel makes the case once again that Kendall should be sitting and Rivera should be playing more.

With that said, Kendall was hit by two pitches yesterday, the 240th and 241st of his career. Plunk Everyone has a bunch of statistical nuggets related to that.

Entering play tomorrow, Mike Cameron has been worth 2.8 Wins Above Replacement on the season, third most on the team. Should the Brewers make an offer to bring him back for next season? The Junkball Blues makes the case for it. Baseball Digest Daily says Cameron is the third best defensive outfielder in the NL.

In the minors:

Fifth round pick D'Vontrey Richardson signed his contract Friday night and is expected to report to Arizona to spend a few weeks with the Rookie Brewers before their season concludes.
Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff continues to look at the average age of minor league teams, and finds the Huntsville Stars are one of the oldest teams in AA. The average probably falls a bit if you remove Vinny Rottino, who is a Dodger now.

Around baseball:

Astros: Placed Doug Brocail on the DL with a strained shoulder.
A's: Released Jason Giambi.
Cubs: Placed Carlos Zambrano on the DL with back spasms.
Dodgers: Placed Jason Schmidt on the DL with shoulder trouble.
Mets: Acquired outfielder Jason Dubois from the Cubs.
Phillies: Released infielder Pablo Ozuna.
Pirates: Placed reliever Donnie Veal on the DL with a sprained index finger.
Rangers: Designated Vicente Padilla for assignment.
Rays: Acquired Gregg Zaun from the Orioles for a PTBNL or cash, claimed Russ Springer off waivers from the A's, and designated Joe Dillon, R.J. Swindle, reliever Jonathan Meloan and catcher Michel Hernandez for assignment.
Red Sox: Designated reliever Enrique Gonzalez and John Smoltz for assignment and placed Jed Lowrie on the DL with forearm irritation.
Yankees: Designated Josh Towers for assignment.

Yesterday's Brewer game wasn't the only one over the weekend impacted by poor umpiring. As is becoming customary, here's your Umpiring Roundup from the weekend:

Ed Rapuano ejected Shane Victorino for complaining about a strike call in center field. (h/t Al)
Lance Barksdale ejected Padres manager Bud Black after missing a call at home plate Saturday.
Jerry Crawford ejected D-Backs manager A.J. Hinch after missing a call at first base.

This morning's Mug is probably a little late because I got hooked on this story and ended up reading the whole thing: Gary Smith of Sports Illustrated has an incredible profile of Mpho "Gift" Ngoepe, the South African shortstop in the Pirates organization, and the incredible path he's traveling in an attempt to become the first African-born major leaguer. (h/t Bucs Dugout)

The economy may suck, but if you're the official manufacturer of baseballs for MLB, you'll probably always have a job. MLB Daily Dish estimates the major leagues will go through about 220,000 balls this season.

Playing a Timber Rattlers game at Miller Park seemed to work pretty well for all involved, so maybe the Brewers should try this: The Red Sox have an annual Futures at Fenway doubleheader, featuring games with two of the team's affiliates. I'd pay to see that.

On this day in 1987, Paul Molitor went 2-for-4 with two walks, extending his hit streak to 25 games as the Brewers beat the Rangers 4-3 in 12 innings.

Happy birthday today to Chuckie Carr, a 1996 Brewer and first-ballot entry into the "Don't Be That Guy" Hall of Fame, who turns 42 today.

Oh, and please, for your sake and ours, stop dressing up your cat.

Drink up.

Before you jump off the Joba The Starter bandwagon

Travis G — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 02:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

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Please read this (and yes, I know it's a bit late) -

Last night we saw a 23-year-old kid have a bad game. It was his second straight - no question about it. But let's not go overboard: from some of the comments on this site, you'd think Joba was as bad as Chien-Ming Wang. These knee-jerk reactions are irrational.

His ERA now stands at a-better-than-average 4.25, third among Yankee starters.

Joba's velocity last night was 93.5 MPH. Is that not good enough? It won't be as fast as when he relieved because that's the nature of baseball: pitching fewer innings is easier and less taxing.

And we've seen him be very successful as a starter - last season he had a 2.76 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 12 starts.

Now let's play a game called Guess the Pitcher:

22 years old, 4.48 ERA, 1.49 WHIP...

23 years old, 10.64 ERA, 2.20 WHIP...

22 years old, 4.74 ERA, 1.51 WHIP...

21 years old, 5.61 ERA, 1.64 WHIP...

25 years old, 4.82 ERA, 1.51 WHIP...

and now Joba: 23 years old, 4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

My point is not that Joba will turn into a Hall of Famer (like the aforementioned pitchers), but that a bad stretch doesn't mean he automatically won't. It's two bad starts, two.

All I remember hearing the past couple years was how the Yankees had to develop their own pitchers so we wouldn't have to rely on the likes of Carl Pavano, Tim Redding, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, etc.; and the Quadruple-A guys that we got to know too well: Ty Clippard, Matt DeSalvo, Jeff Karstens, Darrel Rasner, Kei Igawa, etc.

That brings me to my next point: if you're throwing Joba into the pen, who takes his spot in the rotation? Sergio Mitre (28 years old, 5.36 career ERA, hasn't pitched in the Bigs since '07), Josh Towers (32 years old, 4.96 career ERA, last seen in '07), Jason Johnson (35 years old, 4.99 career ERA), Igawa (do I have to go over his resume?)? You liking any of them?

Joba is 23, has a 3.04 career ERA (3.62 as a starter).

So the choices seem to be ML re-treads with no promise, or watching a kid with a ton of promise go through normal ups and downs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

In addition to all that, Andy Pettitte had another poor game. Should he be moved to the pen?

Joba's ERA as a starter is 3.62. Pettitte's over the same time frame ('08-'09) is about 4.62. A full run difference. Before you tell me that Joba doesn't pitch deep enough, I've already looked. He averages 5.1 ip/start - Pettitte has averaged a hair over 6 ip/start. How much is a full run in ERA worth? 2-3 more outs?

It would seem those traits might roughly even out. Therefore, if Joba deserves to be in the pen, why not Andy?

Dollars and Sense Part Seven: Dollar Win Values

Jabberwocky — Fri, 29 May 2009 09:50:48 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Per Fangraphs' dollar value metric, Ubaldo Jimenez was worth $3 million to the Rockies in 2007 and $12.9 million in 2008. So far in 2009 Jimenez has been worth $7.4 million.

Browse more photos »

In this fashionably late edition of Purple Row Academy, I shift gears from Positional Payroll Distribution to an examination of the Rockies' historical Win Value data, courtesy of Fangraphs, compared to both the Rockies' marginal wins over that period and their ODPs. This session is, (for now, at least), the conclusion to my Dollars and Sense series. In two weeks I'll be back with a new area of study for your learning enjoyment.

My analysis on this topic covers the period from 2002 to 2008. Why this period? Well, Fangraphs' win value data only goes back to 2002, and since the Win Value data is comprised of counting stats, the eight weeks of 2009 data available to us can be quite misleading. When calculating payroll efficiency in the past I have used a team's ODP, as it best represents a club's expectations for a full season of how much their players are worth--and applying win value concepts to the Rockies for only part of the 2009 season would be irresponsible. Here is the Rockies' 2009 win values data for those that are interested. It looks like our 3B platoon of Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart owes the Rockies $7.1 million this year so far.

So how are these values calculated? At the risk of stepping on RMN's toes a little bit, Fangraphs guru Dave Cameron has a seven part series explaining their calculation--basically explaining the WAR (wins above replacement) concept (as well as another seven part series concerning pitchers' win value). For the purposes of this article, though, I looked at his explanation of the conversion of win value to dollar value. The equation heavily involves the concept of marginal wins.

As I wrote in my MP/MW column, the minimum winning % assumed by the formula is .300, or 48.6 wins over a 162 game slate of games. Every team, even spending the minimum on player salary, will surpass this mark. As Cameron puts it, the result of this concept:

There are about 1,000 marginal wins in a major league season. All 30 teams are fighting over these 1,000 wins, each trying to get more than 45 or so to get them in the playoffs.

Every dime a major league team spends above the major league minimum is theoretically spent in an effort to buy as many of those 1,000 wins as possible.

As I figured out using the MP/MW formula, in 2008 the theoretical minimum payroll was $10.92 million--creating a price floor for MLB of $327.6 million. Note that Cameron has calculated this number as $12 million per team, but this is incorrect according to my methodology. Meanwhile, as I mentioned a few weeks ago, total MLB ODP was $2,697,392,597. Subtracting the price floor from the total payroll and dividing that number by 1000 marginal wins gives the theoretical average cost per marginal win in MLB. For 2008, that was about $2.37 million. According to my own calculations a couple of weeks ago, this number is closer to $2.7 million, but let's run with Cameron's number.

This would be really easy, but as Cameron mentions, many of these players are in the pre-arbitration and arbitration stages of service time--players whose salaries were not determined by the free market system. These players provide their teams with production that comes cheaper than the $2.37 million average cost per MW. In addition, many players simply aren't available to other teams due to their high values to their franchise. These factors make the pool of available marginal wins much smaller than 1000, and much more expensive than $2.37 million.

With his system, Cameron is effectively trying to find out the cost per marginal win of free agency. His definition of the market cost per MW is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year. In other words, he calculates the free agent class' WAR values from the previous year and divides the total salary pool by that net WAR amount. Here's his calculation from 2007:

90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers' $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site. I re-did this for all years going back to 2002, and the dollars per win for each are as follows:

2002 - $2.6m / win
2003 - $2.8m / win
2004 - $3.1m / win
2005 - $3.4m / win
2006 - $3.7m / win
2007 - $4.1m / win
2008 - $4.5m / win

So, if the Rockies wanted to get into the free agent market this past offseason (not that they really have since the Hampton/Neagle fiasco) , they could expect to pay a staggering $4.5 million per marginal win, more than double the MLB average rate per MW. This inefficiency in the free agent market illustrates the importance of teams (especially those in small markets) getting lots of production from their young cost-controlled players.

Historically, the Rockies have had varying degrees of success on this regard. Due to the nature of the calculation (each WAR in the dollar value calculation being equal to the market cost per MW, which was higher than the average cost per MW), the Rockies are consistently receiving a higher "dollar value" from their roster than their ODP may suggest. However, if this "dollar value" concept would be adjusted to reflect merely the average cost per MW each year (in other words, taking into account all players instead of just free agents), then the "dollar value" numbers would often be below a team's ODP--especially if that team rates low on the MP/MW formula.

Join me after the jump as I briefly examine each Rockies team using a couple different efficiency metrics from 2002 to 2008...

Rockies Dollar Win Values by Year

For each year from 2002-2008, I'll summarize the success of each team through a few different metrics that I've covered this session and in previous sessions. After each season I'll add a little commentary that I found interesting when looking closely at the data. If anyone wants the spreadsheet of win value data that I compiled in researching this article (complete with formulas!), just e-mail me and I'll send it to you.

2002
ODP: $56,851,043
W-L Record: 73-89
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $778,781
MP: $51,251,043
MW: 24.4
MP/MW: $2,100,453
Team WAR: 24.5
Dollar Value of Player Production: $65,700,000

Notable about the 2002 team is the fact that the Rockies' pitching staff, led by Jason Jennings (3.0 WAR), produced a woeful 12.6 WAR--and when you factor in the pitching staff's negative hitting value, this number is an even worse 9.2 WAR. On a positive note, Todd Helton (5.9 WAR) and Larry Walker (5.6 WAR) were worth $16.4 and $15.6 million respectively--accounting for nearly half of the team's entire player production value. In a year in which Helton was paid $5 million, he came at a relative bargain to Colorado.

2003
ODP: $67,179,667
W-L Record: 74-88
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $907,833
MP: $58,779,667
MW: 25.4
MP/MW: $2,314,160
Team WAR: 30
Dollar Value of Player Production: $84,500,000

While on the surface the Rockies were slightly more successful in 2003 than they had been in 2002, they were a markedly less efficient ballclub. With a roster that produced 5.5 more WAR, the Rockies were only able to emerge with one more win. Generally, a team's MW and WAR numbers should be relatively even...with the luckier teams outperforming their WAR. This is reflected in the Rockies' high MP/MW ratio.

Continuing the Helton thread, the ToddFather was even better in 2003--becoming a 6.8 WAR player, worth about $19.1 million to the Rockies for his $10.6 million salary. The Rockies' "top" pitcher in 2003 was none other than Darren Oliver and his 2.7 net WAR. Overall, the pitchers produced 11.3 WAR (with FA busts Hampton and Neagle contributing nothing and -0.6 WAR respectively). Also of note was Garrett Atkins' -1.1 WAR.

2004
ODP: $65,445,167
W-L Record: 68-94
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $962,429
MP: $57,045,167
MW: 19.4
MP/MW: $2,940,473
Team WAR: 25.2
Dollar Value of Player Production: $78,400,000

This team was the least efficient (and very nearly the least effective) team in Rockies' history, with each MW costing almost $3 million. In addition, the Rockies underperformed their WAR by nearly 6 wins and posting their worst year in linear payroll efficiency.

The story of the year was the worst pitching staff assembled by the Rockies during the Humidor Era. They were "led" by Joe Kennedy's 2.3 WAR and produced a net of only 6.5 WAR. Yikes! Helton was paid $11.6 million and produced $21 million (6.8 WAR)--a huge portion of the team's total production. Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe also contributed 1.6, 0.2, and -0.4 WAR respectively.

2005
ODP: $48,155,000
W-L Record: 67-95
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $718,731
MP: $39,307,000
MW: 18.4
MP/MW: $2,136,250
Team WAR: 24.2
Dollar Value of Player Production: $83,300,000

While this edition of the Rockies lost one more game than their predecessors and produced less WAR, at least they did it a little more efficiently due to the much lower 2005 payroll. In 2005, the Rockies' pitchers bounced back somewhat with a 9.2 WAR. They were actually led by Brian Fuentes' net 1.6 WAR from the bullpen. Meanwhile, Helton remained the Rockies' top dollar value producer, getting paid $12.6 million to produce $17.4 million (5.1 WAR). Finally, Holliday, Atkins, and Hawpe produced 3.3, 2.5, and -0.6.

2006
ODP: $41,233,000
W-L Record: 76-86
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $542,539
MP: $32,077,000
MW: 27.4
MP/MW: $1,170,693
Team WAR: 33.1
Dollar Value of Player Production: $121,800,000

In 2006 the Rockies saw the first fruits of Gen-R blossom, enjoying a career year from Atkins--who led the team with 5.9 WAR ($22 million)--and excellent seasons by Holliday (4.4, $16.4) and Hawpe (2.8, $10.5). However, this was the first year in which Helton underperformed his contract, producing 2.4 WAR and $9 million for $16.6 million--illustrating the danger of back-loaded contracts.

The Rockies' pitching also improved markedly, enjoying a renaissance of sorts by JJ (3.5 WAR) that O'Dowd actually took advantage of as well as solid years from Aaron Cook (3.0) and Jeff Francis (2.7)--overall a staff WAR of 15.3. Moving to the efficiency metrics, the Rockies achieved their best rating in linear payroll efficiency and a high mark in MP/MW as well, though they underachieved their WAR by 5.7.

2007
ODP: $54,424,000
W-L Record: 90-73
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $604,711
MP: $43,784,000
MW: 41.1
MP/MW: $1,065,304
Team WAR: 41.6
Dollar Value of Player Production: $170,200,000

Ah, 2007. What a year to be a Rockies fan! According to the efficiency metrics, the 2007 Rockies were hardly a fluke. They simply played up to their WAR production and posted their best MP/MW value while producing an incredible $170.2 million of dollar value. There are too many good things to count that happened in 2007, but here's a few:

Matt Holliday was a BEAST (7.9 WAR, $32.2 million)--in other words, this metric suggests that Matt was worth A-Rod money.
Troy Tulowitzki put up All-Star numbers (5.3 WAR, $21.6 million) as a rookie.
Helton (4.9 WAR, $20 million) once again outperformed his $16.6 million contract.
Jeff Francis' 3.7 net WAR led a staff that finished with a 15.5 WAR

2008
ODP: $68,655,500
W-L Record: 74-88
Linear Payroll Efficiency: $927,777
MP: $57,735,500
MW: 25.4
MP/MW: $2,273,051
Team WAR: 31.4
Dollar Value of Player Production: $141,300,000

Given the warm afterglow of the 2007 season as well as the $14 million payroll hike, the Rockies' 2008 season was seen as a great disappointment, and the numbers bear this out. The Rockies regressed to their WAR underachieving ways while producing a poor score in LPE and MP/MW. The good news for the Rockies in 2008 was the tremendous growth of Ubaldo Jimenez, who despite a very poor (-1.5) hitting WAR managed a 2.9 WAR, and possibly the best year by a Rockies' pitcher ever, Aaron Cook's net 4.3 WAR. In all, the staff had a 15.4 WAR.

Instead, it was the Rockies' hitters who regressed in 2008. Despite Holliday's excellent 6.2 WAR, $28 million campaign and Chris Iannetta's dreamy breakout (3.8 WAR, $16.9 million), the Rockies' position players produced only 16 WAR--far less than 2007's 26.1 WAR. The main culprits were the regression of Atkins (0.6 WAR), Tulowitzki (0.8), and Hawpe (-0.7). All of this added up to a disappointing 2008 campaign.

Meanwhile, Helton's injury-plagued 1.5 WAR, $6.9 million season was well below his $16.6 million pay grade. By the dollar value metric, from 2002 to 2008, Helton produced $109.8 million of value (33.4 WAR) for the Rockies while getting paid $89.6 million over the time period. In other words, Helton has been a bargain thus far for the Rockies purely in terms of on-field production.

Unfortunately, Todd is still owed a minimum of $56.9 million more over the next four years (2009 included) and probably won't produce $36.7 million worth of value--though with his hot start this year it is not inconceivable. That and his blocking of young, cost-controlled talent at 1B is the reason that I don't agree with these kinds of contracts, though Todd has certainly done his best to live up to his.

2009

Thus far in 2009, the Rockies' position players have produced a mere 3.5 WAR through 46 games compared to the pitching staff's pretty nice net 5.4 WAR. In other words, the pitching thus far for Colorado has been decent, it's the hitting that has let the Rockies down. I'll be closely monitoring the Rockies' progress this year using these metrics...and unfortunately I predict that we'll end up with a year that could be our least efficient yet as a franchise.

Sources and Additional Reading

Fangraphs! I can't emphasize the awesomeness of this website as a resource for baseball statistics. If you haven't already, make sure to explore the site--especially the links that I posted within the article.

Specifically, look at the Fangraphs Glossary, which explains some of their advanced metrics.

For contract data, I once again used Cot's Contracts by Jeff Euston.

For explanations of some other terms used in this article, see these previous PR Academy sessions:

ODP Analysis

MLB Payroll Efficiency

Marginal Payroll and Marginal Wins

When I Lived Alone Is There a Ghost in My House? Recap: Twins 11, Jays 6

hugo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:44:35 -0000

Well, I posted earlier about the Jays' many rotation options and you'll notice that I didn't say very much about Matt Clement. Today, Clement put forth the best explanation of why that was with an ugly performance and the Jays dropped the game, 11-6.

Clement was awful, walking 7 hitters over 4 1/3 innings, many of them guys like Nick Punto and Denard Span who do not need to be pitched around. Clement has never had a great feel for the strike zone and while that is sometime forgiveable when you can come back with consistent strikeouts, it won't work with the type of pitcher Matt will need to be now if he is to pitch effectively in the majors. And it didn't work, Clement gave up 9 runs, 1 of which was unearned (it was Clement's error) and just generally didn't at all look like the type of pitcher you want to have pitching for you in the major leagues, let alone the AL East. Jerry, Wilner, and Alan all pretty much agreed that Clement pitched his way out of the rotation picture (at least, insofar as the start of the season is concerned) with his performance and I can't say I disagree. Obviously you can't judge everything by one appearance, but it's not as if this is the first time this spring that Clement has struggled to throw strikes.

Scott Richmond had the unenviable task of warming up quickly and coming in the middle of a monster inning for the Twins, and he got off to a shaky start, giving up some solid hits and 2 additional runs before getting out of the inning. Richmond had an interesting outing - he gave up 9 hits in his 3 2/3 innings, many of them well-hit, but managed 3 scoreless innings after that first inning. Richmond was helped by the fact that he didn't walk anyone and struck out 5 over his 3 2/3 innings. Not a command performance, but with Clement exploding, Richmond seems very likely to make the rotation and I don't think he did anything at all today to hurt his chances. I do have a little bit of a Towers-like feeling about him, though, especially after today's outing - that he's a little too hittable and his good-looking K/BB ratio will always belie that fact - anyone else get that feeling? - but, Towers had some success with the Jays before falling apart so you never know.

Offensively, there were some good performances. Adam Lind continues to heat up; he was 2-3 today with an RBI double. Michael Barrett had 2 more hits, including a very nice piece of hitting to come up with a 2-out RBI single. And some of the kids also showed what they could do: Brad Emaus had an RBI double; Scott Campbell had an RBI single to plate the Jays' first run, hit the ball squarely all day, and made what sounded like a great diving play at third base; Justin Jackson took advantage of some playing time to go 2-4 with a very well hit double and two runs scored; and Moses Sierra was 2-2 with a double and an RBI. David Cooper also doubled in his only plate appearance.

Ricky Romero, who, yes, is still in camp and who Cito says still has a chance of making the team, will make the start tomorrow against the Reds. Mike Wilner had a short interview with Romero after the game and he is very soft-spoken. He has reportedly pitched well in B and minor-league games after having some control problems in a couple of Grapefruit League appearances, so he hopes to let his pitching speak for him tomorrow afternoon.

Washington Nationals' Starter Shawn Hill Returns To Mound Against Marlins Monday.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 06:10:50 -0000

Shawn Hill Returns To Mound Against Marlins, Monday...

May 11th 2007: Shawn Hill is on the mound against the Florida Marlins in RFK Stadium, and he's got a no-hitter through five, and though he's walked two, he's well-nigh untouchable, so when he doesn't come back out for the sixth, you know there's a problem...

The former Montreal Expos' 6th Round pick in the 2000 Draft hasn't made 20 starts in a season since 2004. Hill debuted with the Expos on June 29th of '04 in San Juan, Puerto Rico, (Don't ask), and made 3 starts in the majors, after having started 17 games for Double-A Harrisburg where he went (5-7) with a 3.39 ERA in 87.2 IP, in which he allowed 33 runs, 4 HR's and 20 walks while striking out 53. The next season, Hill would have Tommy John surgery which would cost the right-hander the entire '05 campaign...Hill made 17 starts in 2006 as he rehabbed from the surgery, but was shut down in June when problems recurred...

...After leaving the May 11th '07 game against the Marlins, Hill told the press the bad news, as recounted by AP Sports Writer Howard Fendrich in a Yahoo! Sports Game Recap from the day:

"Shawn HIll, Washington's most effective starter this season, said he's '99 percent sure' he'll go on the disabled list with a sore right elbow that forced him out of the game after five no-hit innings."

...Hill did eventually return to the mound in 2007, but before a late September start, it was announced that the pitcher would once again go under the knife, to, as Washington Post writer Barry Svrluga wrote in an article entitled, "Hill To Miss Final Start, Have Surgery On Right Elbow", "...resolve a nerve problem in his right elbow." In 2008, Hill made 12 starts in which he was (1-5) with a 5.83 ERA between April 19 and June 24 before once again being placed on the DL with what was described as forearm pain.

This time around, Hill didn't even get through Spring Training before Washington Post writer Chico Harlan announced in a March 5th article entitled, "Uh Oh. Shawn Hill. Dr. Andrews", (which continued the haiku-like title-tradition of his predecessor, Mr. Svrluga) that Hill now complained of "forearm discomfort," the recurrence of which in Mr. Harlan's assessment, "threatens to derail his career..." The titular Dr. James Andrews, however, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Hill has right forearm inflammation", had looked at Hill's arm and, "...determined that Hill has no structural damage to his right elbow or forearm."

Fast-forward to this past Friday, the 13th, and MLB.com's Bill Ladson is reporting, in an article entitled, "Hill tosses pain-free bullpen session", that Shawn Hill threw 35 pain-free pitches, and if he felt no ill-effects the next day, as Mr. Ladson wrote:

"Nationals pitching coach Randy St. Claire said Hill is tentatively scheduled to pitch one inning against the Marlins in Jupiter, Florida, on Monday..."

Luckily for Hill...the newest National, Julian Tavarez kept the press busy yesterday with his surprise arrival at Space Coast, (and his questionable explanation for choosing to pitch in DC)...but today it's going to be all about Hill, as the fate of some young starters, (who are developing a following), are riding on the 27-year-old sinker-baller's reconstructed right arm...

Game 16 of Spring Training gets underway at 1:05 pm EST against the Marlins, in Florida's Spring home, Roger Dean Stadium. Shawn Hill vs Anibal Sanchez...

Nationals You Won't See...

Add Justin Maxwell and Josh Towers to the list of the players cut from the Nationals' roster. (ed. note - "Or whatever euphemism they're using these days that's kinder than 'cut'...'reassigned' that's the word I was looking for...")...Maxwell and Towers join Preston Larrison, Bobby Brownlie, Chris Marrero, Matt Whitney, J.D. Martin, catcher Javier Herrera, Destin Hood, Ross Detwiler and Mike O'Connor...who were cut last week, and word is there will be more players sent down before the buses leave Space Coast for Jupiter...