SB Nation - Jesse Litsch

Down on the Farm: MLB Fantasy Prospects Breaks Down the Roy Halladay Deal

raygu — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

8 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

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contributed by Stephen Sheridan at MLB Fantasy Prospects

All of the dust has settled on what ESPN's Jayson Stark explains, "...isn't just a trade. It's a foray into the history books." MLBFP closely studied this monster trade to figure out how the pieces fit together. Of course, we concentrated on the prospects, only. If you don't already know that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are top ten starters in any format, maybe you might need a new hobby.

We begin by taking a look at the Blue Jays' haul for Roy Halladay, which includes Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace (obtained by flipping Michael Taylor to the A's. Stay tuned for our interview with him, later this weekend), and Travis D'Arnaud.

Loyal MLBFP readers already know that Drabek holds a spot on our list of Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2010 & Beyond, coming in at #17. Once you've read our scouting report on Kyle, you'll see that we that this kid might someday follow in his daddy's footsteps and win a Cy Young Award. On December 17, John Manual and J.J. Cooper discussed the big trade on the Baseball America Podcast. They now list Kyle Drabek as Toronto's number one prospect. Who's number two? Brett Wallace, of course.

One of the only knocks on Wallace has been his defense at third base. That may no longer be an issue. Recently, Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos chatted with fans on MLB.com about the Halladay trade and prospects for the Blue Jays in the future. During the chat, Anthropoulos said the following:

We think Wallace is capable of playing third. But, we see him being an above average defensive first baseman. Our hope is to have a strong as a defensive club as we can and putting players in a position where they have a chance to impact the club in the best way defensively.

Sure sounds as if Brett's days manning the hot corner are over. In my opinion, this is a positive move because now he can concentrate on what he does best - crushing the baseball! Back in July, he was traded to the A's in the deal that sent Matt Holliday to the Cardinals. Regardless of where he played in 2009, albeit in the Texas League (AA) or the Pacific Coast League (AAA) - for two different organizations, no less - Wallace proved he's ready for the bigs. For the year, he hit .293 with 20 homers and a .822 OPS. Sure, with the move to first base, we'll want to see him get that .455 slugging percentage a bit higher. Even so, as Bill Root pointed out after Brett's trade to Oakland, "The Arizona State alum has hit at every level in the minors." If that's not enough of a ringing endorsement, Root later proclaims, "he has the skills to win a batting title if he keeps progressing." Upon arriving to the A's organization, Wallace had his best stretch of the season, batting .302 with 9 homers in 182 at-bats.

So when might we see these two top-flight prospects playing in the majors? According to Anthropoulos, (from the aforementioned chat session):

I'd say both Drabek and Wallace are very close. But we don't want to put expectations with respect to a time line on them arriving in Toronto. Since Wallace got to Triple-A last year, you could argue that he is the closest but with Drabek having good success in Double-A last year, he could certainly come fast as well just like Jesse Litsch did.

Barring injuries, MLBFP is willing to bet the house that these guys will be regulars at the Rogers Centre by the end of 2010. So that leaves us with just one player to cover - catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud.

Last season, D'Arnaud played for Single-A Lakewood in the Sally League. When we think Sally, we automatically turn to our friend, Mike Newman and his Scouting the Sally blog. Newman grades Travis really high, as this snippet proves:

At his peak, I would not be surprised to see D'Arnaud surface as a .270-.285 hitter with 18-25 home run power while contributing above average defense and plus game management skills. Among the current catching crop, this would place him in the same company as Geovany Soto, and Miguel Montero who profile as above average regulars, if not occasional all-star caliber players. Select company indeed, but D'Arnaud has the tools and projection to reach those heights. Prospect analysts who regard him as little more than a throw in are seriously undercutting his ability. The Blue Jays gained an excellent prospect.

Those might seem like some lofty expectations, but Newman has been scouting the Sally League for some time now. We at MLBFP highly respect his opinions.

I understand that losing Doc Halladay is a tough pill to sawllow for you Jays fans. But hey, you were going to lose him at the end of the season for nothing! Your new GM came through big in flipping Doc for Drabek and Wallace. Both are blue chippers, just a hair shy of performing in the Major Leagues, potentially at a very high level. Hang in there, Toronto! Anthropoulos might be the real deal.

J.P. Ricciardi Expects Halladay To Remain With Team Through 2010

Matt Buggenhagen — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:44:53 -0000

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Joel Sherman of the NY Post talked to Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi who said not only does he expect Roy Halladay to remain with the Jays this year, he also expects Halladay to remain with the team through 2010.

"I would have to talk to ownership, but I personally would be less inclined to trade him in the offseason," Ricciardi said when reached by phone by the Post. "I would think let's put our best foot forward in 2010. We expect to get our injured pitchers back (such as Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch) and let's try to win.'

Ricciardi again reiterated his position that unless he was wowed by a deal he wouldn't trade Halladay, and as of today he has yet to be wowed.

He also spoke a bit about his thoughts on the Phillies decision to acquire Cliff Lee. When asked if he thought the Indians got enough for Lee Ricciardi said, "beauty is in the eye of the beholder," which when translated to English means NO.

Poll

Will Roy Halladay be a member of the Blue Jays 2010 roster?

Yes

94 votes

No

85 votes

179 votes | Poll has closed

Bluebird Banter Trade Deadline Roundtable, Part III

hugo — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 22:09:38 -0000

Welcome to Part III of our trade deadline roundtable. Parts I and II can be found here, and here. Again, our participants include Tom Dakers, JesseF, JohnnyG, and yours truly.

Hugo: So we've talked about Rolen, Doc, Scutaro, and Frasor and Downs. For who else would you like the Jays to test the market?

Tom: I'd assume they will listen to offers for Rios. Not sure what's going on with him, maybe it's the strain of not changing his daughter's diapers, but I hate the idea of selling low on someone. Trading a guy during his worst season is a sure way to get less than what he's worth. If you are GM and you trade him now and next year he has that 30 home run season we are figured he would have and that's it for your career.

I'd imagine Brian Tallet's trade value is as high as it ever would be, I'd like them to see what the market is there.

Jesse: I think it really depends on what they plan to do in 2010. If they don't think they'll be competitive, I would not mind seeing them shop Lyle Overbay, who would be a good platoon first baseman on a competitive NL team, where he could pinch-hit and fill in as a defensive replacement on days when he doesn't start. Tallet's value isn't going any higher than it is now.

JohnnyG: Overbay, Tallet, Rolen and Halladay are the most marketable players we have right now. Rios is possibly on the table but I would rather not see it happen for the same reasons as Tom outlined above (trading when value is down). Had you asked me earlier I would of said Litsch but with his surgery that kinda stops that one dead in it's tracks. I also would see what kinda return you could get for Richmond in a package as he has been a nice surprise, especially if he comes back strong (he is eligible to come off the DL today July 15th).

Hugo: I wouldn't mind seeing what's out there for Tallet - I'm not sure what the Jays could get, but he's not an awful option for someone looking to stabilize their rotation on the cheap - he's affordable, has pitched reasonably well, and can always go back to the bullpen if necessary, where he's been very effective in the past. Overbay wouldn't be a bad candidate either - I like his defense but you could move Lind to first and have Dopirak DH (or vice-versa) or if Brian's not ready, acquire a hitter some other way. Depending on what you got for Overbay, it could be a nice cost-effective move for the team. I hate the idea of moving Rios right now unless some team really ponies up for him - if you're convinced he's never going to get to the next level (which I'm not), then at least wait until he's on a hot streak or you can get a better deal. Personally I would prefer to keep Richmond - I doubt he'd fetch all that much as he's only had a half-season under his belt and doesn't have the pedigree, and even if he is squeezed out of the rotation next year, he'll be a great 6th starter and will probably make as many starts as the others anyway.

Hugo: All the pitching injuries this season have given the Jays a great chance to showcase their pitching depth. Some of the young pitchers like Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil have really shown what they can do. With Shaun Marcum set to return this season, Jesse Litsch looking to come back around the all-star break next season, and Dustin McGowan a continuing question-mark, it is questionable whether pitchers like Scott Richmond, David Purcey, and Brian Tallet, all of whom have pitched for the Jays this season, will have places in the Jays' rotation picture next season. That being the case, is it time to see what the Jays can get for these arms on the open market? Or would they be better served to hold onto these arms for contingency situations in the future?

Tom: Guess I already said it but I'd look to see if I could sell high on Tallet. Beyond that, let's see if Marcum can be effective again. Purcey, I get the feeling the team has written him off already, which I think is too bad, he does walk guys but he gets strikeouts too and we don't have enough pitchers that can do that, but then I think the team has killed off any trade value he might have had.

Jesse: Well, Litsch won't be back for a year now, and that's assuming his surgery goes well. As you said, McGowan is unfortunately an unknown. Hopefully Marcum can build up his arm-strength and get his velocity where it needs to be for him to continue his success, but we really can't be sure of that just yet, either. I would like to see the Jays hold onto their young pitchers . . . even if there is no place in the rotation for some of these guys right now, there is nothing wrong with letting them spend an additional year at AAA. If they can be dominant in the PCL through next year, you have to do something with them, though.

JohnnyG: Tallet and Richmond could be shopped. I like Purcey but I could live with him being sent in a package, granted if all 3 pitchers were sent out we better be getting another pitcher in return to help plug in. Even still I don't think you make a move this year with either Purcey or Richmond. Tallet's value is top notch at the moment and would be a smart move depending on the return. While I don't like Purcey's chances to make the team next year either I think he would be a good piece to have in the minors as a backup injury plan.

Tom: I really don't see Richmond having trade value yet, just two years removed from the Edmonton Cracker Cats, if I'm another team's GM I'd want more than one good season to convince me that a fellow that wasn't in anyone's system could be worth trading for.

Tom: Another question for you all: Is packaging Wells with Halladay an option?

Jesse: It's an option, but it's not one I'd love to consider. A bunch of folks have mentioned that Wells's contract is so crippling that it is almost worth it to move Halladay just to be rid of it, however, I think it would be very bad for the front office if they move their best (and most popular) player, just so they can get out of a contract that they signed in large part as a PR move to tell the fans they could get behind this team. What kind of message would ownership be sending to the fans?

JohnnyG: Non Option with me. I just don't see how trading Halladay to dump Wells helps the Jays. Yes we save a ton of money but you are going to have to overspend to bring in FA replacement players to get them to play for TO and in Canada (Sad but true). Not to mention trading Halladay doesn't exactly send the strongest signal to free agent's that we are ready to compete either so that is already working against us. Any return from Halladay would be so little with Wells attached to the trade that it would make me curl up under my desk into the fetal position and rock back and forth repeating "it's all a bad dream it's all a bad dream it's all a bad dream".

Hugo: I don't love the idea either, but I guess I wouldn't categorically rule it out - it would depend on whether Wells would negate the return from Halladay. For example, if the Jays were set to trade Doc to the Dodgers for a package centered around center-fielder Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers could somehow afford to add both Doc and Wells, I'd try to move Wells too, to fill the spot in center vacated by Kemp. Since LA would be getting Doc to go for the gusto, they wouldn't want to create a hole in the outfield so they might want Wells. I'd even take Pierre off their hands in return, I think (if they wanted), to help them with salary - Pierre would be a good, if expensive, 4th outfielder for the Jays and he wouldn't handcuff the team nearly as much financially as Wells would in the long term. The key would be moving Wells to a team that could really use him and so wouldn't look at him as a concession that would totally negate any return for Doc. Now, a deal like that would be very tough to work out and so it probably won't happen. But it could be worth at least exploring.

Tom: I guess it does depend on how the finance situation is for the Jays and Rogers. With out Mr. Rogers controlling the cheque book we might not be allowed to lose money every year.

JohnnyG: I am not so sure the Jays were actually losing money, Rogers can move revenues around especially from advertising. Rogers gets a ton of free advertising that saves Rogers Millions and Millions each year. Not too mention that own the stadium as well so thats a plus. And I am not sure the exact revenue gained from the stadium goes into the Jays Bottom Line. Last year I also read that the RedSox and Yankees posted loses, mainly because their sports networks reported income separate and issues with revenue being moved around. Accountants can play with the numbers (legally of course) to make sure certain tax requirements are met or avoided.

Hugo: It wouldn't shock me, either, if the Jays were not as unprofitable as they would like it to seem. The thing is that the Jays contribute to Rogers' other businesses (for example, free content for Sportsnet), and that value isn't reflected in the ledgers. And while it is a publicly-traded company, corporations shift assets and losses to subsidiaries all the time for reasons only they usually know.

JohnnyG: I have a question, Would any of you considering the Red Sox or the Yanks a realistic target for a Halladay trade? I know that they will inquire and it would be good to listen for nothing else but to maybe bump up the price, but at the end of the day if you were JP could you pull the trigger on a trade that sent Halladay to NYY for a package centered around Hughes? I ask because it seems more and more people with that opinion keep popping up (i.e new fanpost over at Daily Dish and multiple articles and comments over at MLBTradeRumors). I know most of the people commenting on it are Yanks fans but still. One laughable post implied Halladay would be a third starter behind both AJ and CC.

Hugo: Interesting question. While the optics of a trade within your division aren't good, trading Halladay essentially puts the Jays into rebuilding mode. If you raid a system like the Yankees or Red Sox of its best players, arguably not only do you improve your team, but you weaken the other team for the time when you plan on competing with them. That said, the Yankees would probably resign Doc - and I wouldn't be that surprised if 3 or so years from now, Halladay was still a better pitcher than Hughes so you'd need to get more than just Hughes, of course. But I believe that's true of any Doc trade - despite the turmoil in the rotation this year, offense is a much bigger problem for the Jays, right now and going forward, than pitching. Look at this season - holes in the rotation are filled with up-and-coming young pitchers with a likely future in the major leagues, while holes in the lineup are filled with AAAA and has-been hitters who have no place in the team's future. The truth is that if you don't trade Doc to the Yankees, they'll just go get another huge name free-agent pitcher anyway, if not Doc himself should he become a free agent. While he probably won't be quite as great as Doc, the Jays also won't be getting the Yankees' best young players. That said, I don't think the Yankees or Red Sox are going to make a serious offer for Doc. Both teams typically only overstretch themselves when they are bidding against one another, and in this case both have said they aren't interested.

It's Hard to Say, It's Hard to Tell, I Always Thought that He Was Well: Who Is At Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries? (Part Two)

jessef — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:11:51 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Get well soon, Jesse. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Hey all, this is part two of our two-part series on who is at fault for the long-term injuries we've seen to four MLB-ready starters since the Spring of 2008. In part one we looked at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, our two pitchers recovering from labrum surgery. Today we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, who are recovering from ligament-replacement (Tommy John) surgery.

Marcum, who undertook surgery last September, is farther along in his rehabilitation and hopes to be back with the big club in August (though that seems like a stretch to me). Whether Marcum is ready to go in August or September, it would be a remarkable recovery either way. Let's just hope he doesn't put too much pressure on himself to get back too quickly (as I think he did last season).

Litsch, whose surgery took place this past June, is naturally much farther behind Marcum, but is hoping to return at some point in 2010. Everyone's timetable for Tommy John surgery recovery is different and rushing pitchers along is not necessarily the best move. Doctors may know more than we do, but the amount they don't know is greater than the amount they do know. Litsch saw Dr. James Andrews twice this season before it was determined that he'd need to go in for ligament-replacement, so no doctors know everything. B.J. Ryan also went in for Tommy John surgery early in the 2007 season and worked hard to get back early and we all know how well that worked.

Shaun Marcum, who was a shortstop and closer in college, was drafted in 2003. He finished up the season as a reliever in short-season A ball and was converted to a starter the next season, when he made 25 starts and pitched 148 1/3 innings, splitting time between A and A+ ball. He dominated at the AA (4.0 K/B-ratio) and AAA (5.0 K/BB-ratio) levels in 2005, earning himself a callup and pitching a total of 165 innings (157 minors, 8 majors). In 2006, he split time between the majors (78 1/3 IP) and minors (52 2/3 IP) for a total of 131 innings. He finally became a mainstay in the Jays rotation in 2007, pitching 159 innings (a pretty large increase from the previous season, but actually a few less than in 2005). In 2008, Marcum threw a total of 168 1/3 innings (most in the majors, 17 in the minors).

Focusing on 2008, Marcum got off to an excellent start (67 K and 22 BB in 78 2/3 IP through the end of May) but was sidelined in mid-June with elbow soreness related to a ligament strain. The Jays DLed him and after a quick rehab he re-entered the Jays rotation a month later. Unfortunately, it may have been too soon as the previously excellent (86 K and 27 BB in 98 2/3 IP before his injury) Marcum struggled mightily prior to being sent back down to the minors in late-August (23 K and 16 BB in 36 1/3 IP). Marcum was recalled in early-September and pitched well in two starts before being removed in the third inning on 16 September with an injury that would end up requiring Tommy John surgery.

Marcum was regularly throwing 100+ pitches early in 2008 (between 10 April and 12 May, he threw 100 pitches every start). As we said in part one, Gibbons rode his starters hard, even his young ones, and Marcum is a prime example of this. After returning from his injury, Marcum was throwing about 90-95 pitches per start prior to being sent down to AAA. When he came back up to the majors in September, his two starts prior to his injury were 103 and 106 pitches. Even though his pitch counts were lower late in the season, because he was ineffective and because of the summer heat, those lower pitches counts were probably at least as tiring as his regular 100-pitch starts earlier in the season. Add in that he was recovering from soreness and it's extremely likely.

When you consider that Marcum was recovering from soreness and was ineffective, I think it is certainly possible that if the Jays had shut him down a bit sooner (or if Cito had at least kept him on a tighter leash), the surgery would not have been necessary. It is also possible that his initial soreness was due to an increase in pitching workload from 2006-2007 (although he pitched more innings in 2005, those innings were at a lower level and his dominance probably put less strain on his arm because he would have laboured less against lower-quality hitters).

Jesse Litsch is a bit of a different case. Litsch, who we projected to accrue the most innings by a Blue Jays pitcher not nicknamed Doc this season, had piled up innings at both the minor league and major league levels since being drafted in 2005. Since 2006, Litsch's innings pitched totals: 158 2/3, 187 1/3, 196. That 2006-2007 jump is somewhat significant, but it is not exactly startling and Litsch did not seem to show any ill effects, as he finished the season pretty strongly. The innings increase from 2007-2008 is almost negligible.

Litsch didn't seem to lose much towards the end of last season striking out 31 (6.7 K/9) and walking 15 (3.2 BB/9) in 41 1/3 IP in September. Although that walk-rate is higher than where he was during the season (just 2.0 BB/9 for the full season), the strikeout rate is also much higher (5.1 K/9 for the full season). Litsch had actually been sent down to the minors for ineffectiveness about a month before Marcum but upon returning to the majors was fine. Cito did ride Litsch quite hard as well. After being recalled, Litsch threw at least 104 pitches each start and during one three-start span actually threw 337, including 112 directly after a 115-pitch start. Before being sent down, Litsch was throwing about 90 pitches per start (with a few starts over 100 including a 114-pitch start, but he only threw 92 the following start and had only thrown 80 in the previous one).

Whether Litsch's injury is related to being overworked towards the end of last season is probably inconclusive. He had shown himself to be capable of throwing lots of innings in previous years, but he was worked harder than ever in August and September of 2008. It is important that we keep this all in mind when we consider that Litsch's recovery in 2010 should not necessarily be done on Marcum's timetable. Marcum seems to be recovering quicker than almost any other starter I've ever heard of. We should not expect Litsch to be ready this time next season, though it would not surprise me if he was able to work some at the minor league level and possibly make a few starts in the majors late in the year. Let's keep it in mind that pitchers who have trouble returning from injuries or reinjure themselves aren't lazy -- in fact, they're probably the opposite of lazy, they're probably pushing themselves too hard.

It Wasn't Me That Made Him Fall, No, You Can't Blame Me At All: Who is at Fault for All the Jays Pitching Injuries?

jessef — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:57:49 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Get Well Soon, Casey! Good luck with your rehab start tonight. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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There has been a lot of discussion on the site recently about all of the pitching injuries the Blue Jays have sustained recently, so I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what could be causing them. In one of the comments to a recent fanpost, it was suggested that the Jays should start implementing "The Joba Rules" for some of the young arms, in order to keep their innings and pitch counts down. Will Carroll thinks that it may be J.P. Ricciardi's fault, not based on pitch counts or too many innings, but on some sort of "organizational philosophy," which I guess means that he doesn't automatically discount pitchers who have a non-zero probability of being hit by line drives or sneezing. Many folks have suggested that Brad Arnsberg or Cito Gaston are to blame as well.

In addition to nagging injuries, like Ricky Romero's strained oblique and Scott Richmond's shoulder tendinits, the Jays have seen several pitchers go down with long-term injuries in the last year or so. The serious injuries that Jays arms have sustained include both ligament-replacement or Tommy John surgery (Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum) and labrum fraying and tearing (Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen). Looking farther back, even Roy Halladay has lost his share of playing time to injury, having suffered from numerous ailments ranging from a "tired throwing arm" in 2004 to a broken leg to appendicitis and finally a pulled groin this season. In part one of this two-part series, we will look at Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen, who are recovering from shoulder injuries.

Well, each pitcher should really be evaluated separately on a case-by-case basis, so let's look at them individually. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated is of the opinion that an increase in workload of 30 innings is generally an acceptable amount amongst young starting pitchers, but an increase of more than 30 innings from one year to the next could spell serious trouble. Verducci's success-rate of pitchers that he projects as injury risks (under 25 years old and an increase in workload of 30+ innings) is quite good, but only if you do not limit his injury projection to a pitcher's arm and shoulder. Personally, I don't put much stock in an increase in workload causing an hip injury or slipping on ice, but that's just me.

Since Verducci had projected Dustin McGowan as a potential injury concern, let's start with him:

McGowan's innings pitched jumped signifcantly from 2006 to 2007, increasing from a total of 111 1/3 IP to 181 2/3 IP. This is, of course, a drastic increase and should raise eyebrows, particularly for a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery before. McGowan did, however, finish the season quite strongly in '07. In August, McGowan struck out 30 and walked 9 over 32 1/3 innings. He didn't show any signs of trouble in September, either, striking out 41 and walking 13 over 40 1/3 innings. I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers the gem he pitched against the Red Sox, when he struck out nine and didn't walk any, a game in which he threw a then-career-high 122 pitches. He was pretty ineffective afterwards in his last two times out, including in his next start when he threw 112 pitches over just 4 1/3 innings.

A prevailing theory on pitcher abuse relates to the number of pitches thrown over three starts (the idea being that a pitcher is not fully recovered each time out) and McGowan threw 333, 326 and 311 pitches over different two-week spans in 2007. He laboured a bit less in 2008, though he did throw 125 pitches in one game and 323 pitches over a span of three starts. A lot of people criticized John Gibbons for leaving his starters in too long (except Ted Lillly) and I'd say that McGowan's injury probably has something to do with a mishandling on the current Kansas City Royals' bench coach's part. While McGowan seemed strong late in 2007, he has not exactly been a picture (or pitcher, if you will) of perfect health throughout his career and it would have been wiser to treat him with kid-gloves, particularly as his potentially excellent career seemed like it was just taking off. Even if the increase in workload did not cause the labrum injury, it was excessively risky.

Casey Janssen, who begins his rehab tonight, split time as a starter between the minors (very effective) and majors (somewhat effective) in 2006, pitching a total of 136 2/3 innings. In 2007, he was moved to the bullpen, where he pitched quite effectively (3.89 FIP), though he was probably helped by an unsustainable 5.3% HR/Flyball rate. In 2007, Janssen pitched 72 2/3 innings, a pretty significant reduction from his total in 2006, but he did make 70 appearances, 11th most in the American League. Janssen had an excellent spring training in 2008 and was all set to re-enter the starting rotation when it was announced that he had torn his labrum shortly before the season began.

As far as misuse goes, there are two main possible reasons for Janssen's injury -- he was either overworked in his 70 appearances in 2007 (unlikely in my opinion, as starting is more stressful) or he had trouble readjusting to a starting role after a season in the bullpen (more likely in my opinion). Now, even if the second case is true, I am not of the opinion that it should be blamed on Jays management -- there are precedents for career-starters spending some time in the bullpen and then being moved back into the rotation and I don't think the Jays treated this situation any differently than I would have. Pitchers get injured sometimes -- that's just part of being a pitcher, the human shoulder is not made to throw a baseball -- some things are unavoidable.

So keep an eye out for Part 2, in which we'll look at Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch, our pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Poll

Who do you think is responsible for all these pitching injuries?

J.P. Ricciard

34 votes

Cito Gaston

8 votes

John Gibbons

22 votes

Brad Arnsberg

23 votes

The individual pitchers, themselves

39 votes

Case-by-case basis (please elaborate in the comments section)

38 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

June, She'll Change Her Tune: Reflections on the Blue Jays

hugo — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:49:55 -0000

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Lyle Overbay is giving Toronto fans something to cheer about so far this season (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)

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As readers likely know, Tom and I alternate writing a monthly column on the great site Baseball Reflections. I thought I'd share my latest piece for the site -- although I'm not sure when exactly it'll be posted there in the next few days (update: it's up there now), it's relevant here today and since it's a bit of a slow day, here you go:

June Reflections on the Blue Jays:

When my partner in crime, Tom, penned his last epistle about our beloved azure corvidae, things were just going great in the Queen City. He mentioned how much he was enjoying the season thusfar, and confided that he wasn’t sure how long the Jays could keep it up. The answer to that soon came – not very long. Almost immediately after his missive, the Jays went into a tailspin in which they were swept in three straight series. The hits stopped falling in with runners on, the runners stopped getting on, the sliders weren’t sliding quite right, and before you could say "Touch ‘Em All Joe," pow! -- a 9-game losing streak. The bandwagon almost achieved escape velocity, what with all the people so suddenly jumping off of it. Folks decried that the Jays were pretenders who fattened up against weak teams but now the real Jays were showing themselves. The truth, though, is that the Jays are neither as fantastic as their April play would have you assume, nor as dismal as they were during that 9-game losing streak. Since that losing streak, the Jays are 12-10 (.545), and, well, that’s about the kind of team they are. Not great, not terrible, but a reasonably well-constructed team with strengths and weaknesses. Currently, the Jays sit 6 games over .500 (39-33), tied for the lead in the American League wild card race with the New York Yankees. That’s not such a bad place to be with the season nearing the halfway mark. And the Jays have managed that without significant contributions from Alex Rios (.774 OPS, he has picked it up of late) and Vernon Wells (.688 OPS, though he, too, has come on a bit recently).

Marco Scutaro continues to defy any rational expectations, reaching base at a stellar .397 clip and playing world-class defense at shortstop. Scott Rolen’s days of hitting 30+ home runs may be long gone, but Rolen, too, is playing incredible defense, providing highlight reel plays on an almost daily basis, and hitting .332/.396/.485 for good measure. Aaron Hill has fallen off a bit recently but is still doing the job on both sides of the ball, and Lyle Overbay is having a career year so far (.938 OPS) at the plate and playing his usual stellar defense. Adam Lind is having a breakout season with a .307/.381/.540 line, 22 doubles, and 14 home runs and he has been particularly hot in June.

You might have noticed a trend in the rundown of the Jays’ offensive contributors – reference to their stellar defense. The Jays have one of the best defenses in the league, and that’s gone a long way to helping the pitching staff cope with a medical report longer than an ER ward. Shaun Marcum, the second-best starter on a fantastic pitching staff last season – Tommy John surgery. Dustin McGowan, once one of the better-looking young arms in the league – labrum repair surgery. Jesse Litsch, two seasons of better than 120 ERA+ before his 24^th birthday – Tommy John Surgery. Casey Janssen, considered the number 4 starter headed into camp this year – continued problems stemming from 2008 labrum repair surgery. Ricky Romero – missed time due to an oblique strain. And most recently, Roy Halladay – strained groin. With all those injuries, it’s a wonder that the Jays’ starting corps have been able to hold things together, and their stellar defense deserves a lot of the credit.

That’s not to say that the Jays’ starters haven’t been equally deserving, if not more so, however. Rookie pitchers Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond – all have done a great job, as has long-reliever turned starter Brian Tallet. And while the Jays’ pen has been mercurial at times, particularly ex-closer B.J. Ryan, generally speaking they have gotten the job done, though the loss of closer Scott Downs is a big blow and the fact that he sprained his big toe running out of the batters box in an interleague game makes it sting all the more.

So, when you think Jays, don’t think "flash-in-the-pan April" or "showed-their-true-colours May." Think of a team that is contending with a ridiculous injury list and two AL East juggernauts and is still very much in this fight almost halfway through the season. And if you like to root for the little guy doing his best in trying circumstances, send a few cheers our way, eh?

Jesse Litsch to Have Tommy John Surgery

hugo — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 23:37:43 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Get well soon, Jesse. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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In some very sad, but not very surprising, news, Jesse Litsch is going to need ligament replacement surgery. Hat tip to adam, who first posted about this in the fanposts.

I have to say, I saw this coming from the moment Litsch left that game in his second start, but what's strange about this is that Jesse had a few MRIs and supposedly they all revealed no ligament damage. Not much to say, other than it is incredibly frustrating for yet another of our young quality pitchers to go under the knife, and, of course, to wish Jesse a full and speedy recovery. I do think we have the pitching to cover for him. Get well, Jesse.

April is the Cruelest Month / Breeding Lilacs Out of the Dead Ground: Blue Jays' April in Review

hugo — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:20:28 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Marco Scutaro and the Jays got a solid jump start on the 2009 season, but there's a lot of baseball yet to be played. (AP photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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So, in case you weren't paying attention, here's what happened in April, after we spent January, February, and March hearing about how bad this team was going to be. Yes, April bred the lilacs of victory out of the dead ground of below-low expectations. It was the cruelest month for our opposition (except the Royals) and for those who figured the Jays would struggle to win 70 games.

- The Jays went 15-9, good enough for the best/second best record in the A.L.(percentage points behind the Boston Red Sox) Their Pythagorean record was also 15-9, or 14-10 depending on which page of Baseball Reference you read.

- The Jays scored 5.92 runs per game. They gave up 4.67 runs per game

- The Jays lead the American League in defensive efficiency

- For all the problems with the starting rotation, the Jays had the 4th best pitching staff in the A.L. (4.29 ERA) and lead the league in strikeouts.

- The Jays saw more pitches per plate appearance than any team in the American League, lead by Adam Lind with 4.72, a player who last season walked in a scant 4.7% of his plate appearances and swung at 34% of pitches outside the strike zone. This season, he's walking almost 12% of the time and swinging at just 25% of pitches outside the strike zone. And those adjustments have translated into his hitting too: Lind hit .320/.400/.557 in April, with 4 home runs and a wOBA of .415. His BABIP was high (.377), so his batting average may drop a little bit, but with improved line drive, plate discipline, and HR/FB rates, there's plenty of reason for optimism going forward. Lind is a big reason for the offense's success, and he did it all while hitting in the middle of the order (5th) and against lefty and righty pitching (actually, after struggling practically his whole career against lefties, he's hitting .321/.345/.464 against them this season)

- Marco Scutaro was a great leadoff hitter, walking almost at will (in almost 20% of his plate appearances) en route to a .420 OBP and .409 wOBA. Scutaro also added power to his game this month, (5 HR, .223 Iso-P) and played incredible defense (19.5 UZR/150 at shortstop). So much for not being a credible everyday player. Scutaro is leading all major-league shortstops in OPS, wOBA, OBP, home runs, walks, runs scored, RsBI, and Runs Created. The truly weird thing is that he's doing it with a puny 11% line drive rate, and he's always been a good line-drive hitter despite being a low BABIP hitter (a trend that has continued this season).

- Aaron Hill returned from his nightmarish concussion injury and has been unbelievable, squaring up on seemingly every pitch. Hill, who was previously a slow starter, even returned to his power-hitting ways, hitting 6 doubles and 4 home runs, with an Iso-P of .193. For the first two weeks or so, Hill wasn't walking all, but there was no reason to worry, and in the second half of the month, Hill started walking a lot (7 times over the second 12 games of the month). Hill has a .429 wOBA hitting out of the second spot and while part of that is his .400 BABIP, he's also hitting a lot of line drives (almost 30% of his batted balls). Hill, who has always been a superior defender, seems a little uncomfortable at second-base so far (although he has made some incredible plays), and that's borne out by the stats (he's slightly below average so far according to UZR).

- Scott Rolen had an okay first month, hitting .317/.367/.427, basically in line with his overall performance last season. Rolen actually got off to a hot start last season, though mostly in May, so his numbers thusfar this season aren't what they were. Rolen's lack of increased power over last season is a little worrying (actually his power is down, he has a puny Iso-P of .106 so far this season) but he is OPSing almost .800 so we'll just have to see if the power will come. A .361 wOBA is nothing to sneeze at. As usual, Rolen is playing superlative defense (15.1 UZR/150 thusfar).

- The Lyle Overbay/Kevin Millar "platoon-like situation" is working splendidly. Kyle Moverbay (since we're getting more Overbay than Millar) his .298/.402/.521 as a first-baseman over the first month. Overbay is supplying most of the OBP (.403) and plenty of the power (.500), while Millar is definitely pulling his own weight as well. If you don't think Overbay can keep it up, last season he put up a .384 OBP against righties and a .481 SLG, so he can.

- What's up with Alex Rios? Rios is hitting just .248/.308/.362, and isn't showing selectivity or power at the plate. With a -3.3 wRAA, he just hasn't produced. An absurdly low BABIP (.301) isn't the problem. Rather, he's hitting too many ground balls (43%), has a ridiculously low HR/FB en route to just 1 home run, and is hitting way to many pop ups (24% of his batted balls). UZR also suggests he's not performing well in the outfield. Rios was slightly better in the second half of the month, but no question he's struggling.

- Despite suffering the slings and arrows of an outrageous fanbase, Vernon Wells had an okay month, hitting .283/.345/.465 for a .356 wOBA and 110 OPS+. A little more power would be nice, but Wells is walking more than he's striking out and his HR/FB is way below his career numbers so more power is a reasonable expectation for the future. Wells is popping up an absurd 42% of his batted balls (his career number is 16.5%) and there's no way that trend can continue. Unfortunately, Wells' hot start with the glove didn't continue and UZR is suggesting he's doing a pretty poor job in centrefield.

- In left field, Travis Snider got off to a hot start, hitting .321/.387/.786 over the first half of April but the second half of the month was a very different story (.206/.270/.235). No doubt he's hitting like a 9th place hitter at the moment. His overall numbers are fine, and he's actually doing quite a good job at laying off pitches outside the zone, but he could stand to be a little more selective in the zone as well. He's seeing less fastballs and more offspeed offerings now, and will have to adjust to that. After a crazy high line drive rate last season (34%), it's now absurdly low (12.8%), leading to a relatively low BABIP of .289. Still, he is walking a reasonable amount of the time, and striking out a lot less than folks feared, so he's doing fine. It's just an adjustment he needs to make, and he'll make it. Jose Bautista (.317/.404/.463) is doing a nice job as his right-handed platoon-mate.

- Rod Barajas was a nice surprise at the plate, hitting .299/.333/.493, good for the 3rd best catcher in the AL. It may not last, but he's doing a great job at the plate right now.

- On the pitching side, Roy Halladay was quite good, striking out 8 times as many batters as he walked and putting up good K numbers. Doc's continuing his deadly combination of inducing grounders, striking out guys, and not walking them, and has been a little hit unlucky. It's likely he'll get even better as the season goes on. Ricky Romero was a very pleasant surprise (2-0, 1.71 ERA, 3.25 K/BB ratio) before an oblique strain sidelined him. Scott Richmond has been quite good (3-0, 2.70, 2/1 K/BB ratio) and has utterly dominated right-handed batters. We all know about David Purcey's control problems and how he was sent down, so Robert Ray will see what he can do. Brian Burres, the less said the better. Enter Brett Cecil. And Brian Tallet had 2 excellent starts before having one terrible one, so let's not write him off as a useful starter yet. Sounds like Casey Janssen and Romero will be back soon, with Jesse Litsch returning not too long after that, so if the current squad can hold it together a little longer, things should improve.

- Our bullpen was outstanding, with a 3.17 ERA as a group. Scott Downs (0.47 Whip, 14/0 K/BB ratio, 0.84 ERA), Jesse Carlson (1.50 ERA, 1.00 Whip), and Jason Frasor (0.42 Whip, no runs given up, 6/1 K/BB ratio) have lead the charge, with Downs stepping in for B.J. Ryan when the latter struggled amidst a trapezius injury. Brandon League had a little trouble at the start, but has been lights out lately - over his last 6 innings, he didn't yield a hit and struck out 7, walking 1 and getting plenty of his trademark ground balls.

- The Jays were 7-3 at home, 8-6 on the road, and 5-2 in one-run games. Bring on May and the rest of the season!

Help Me Get My Feet Back On the Ground: Jesse Litsch, Ricky Romero, and Casey Janssen on the Road to Recovery

hugo — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:57:10 -0000

With a rough outing by starter David Purcey yesterday, let's check in on our three recovering pitchers nearest to contributing to the Jays. I say nearest to contirbuting because it would take quite a while to update all the injured Jays pitchers. The Jays could pretty much spell "Halladay" out in semaphore with all their injured pitchers. If anyone gets that reference (it connects to the title), I love you.

Casey Janssen (shoulder) had his first rehab start yesterday in High-A Dunedin and everything went well. He got through 4 innings, a good sign he was both pitching and feeling well, giving up 2 hits, 2 walks (no runs), and striking out 3. Janssen also got 7 outs on the ground to 2 in the air, which is one of the reasons we like him so much as a starter for the Jays. Mid-May seems the likely return time for Janssen, since he'll need about 2-3 more starts. I'd prefer not to rush him, but 4 innings in his first start back is pretty encouraging.

As we mentioned in the notes to yesterday's game thread, Dr. James Andrews (we can say his name now) cleared Jesse Litsch (forearm/elbow) to begin throwing again. From the timetable given by Cito (some time throwing off flat ground, then a mound, then a rehab assignment), it sounds like Litsch may be back around the end of May or so.

Ricky Romero (sneeze/oblique) was supposed to begin playing catch yesterday. If all goes well (obliques sometimes are tricky in terms of setbacks), he should also be back around mid-May.

So, yeah, Help! is on the way soon.

Everything Hits at Once: White Sox 10, Jays 2

hugo — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:04:04 -0000

Well, it's never a good matchup when you've got your 9th or 10th best starter facing the other team's ace, and it didn't work out so well for our heroes today.

We hated the idea of Brian Burres starting today's game, and it turned out to be for good reason. Burres was bad, giving up 7 hits and 4 walks over 4 1/3 innings. He generally looked like he lacked the stuff to get major-league hitters out and knew it, so he was afraid to pitch inside or challenge good hitters. It was a poor performance and not one, in my opinion, that justifies another major-leagues start. He did manage to make it to the 5th inning just having given up 2 runs, but his luck ran out that inning and things went south.

The White Sox scored 6 runs that inning, 4 of them coming on a grand slam by Alexei Ramirez off Shawn Camp, who had the unenviable task of coming in with the bases loaded and trying to minimize the damage. Brandon League and Brian Bullington pitched scoreless innings at least.

Offensively, the Jays managed two runs in the 2nd inning of Sox starter Mark Buerhle but that was it. Marco Scutaro had a decent day at the plate with a single, a walk, and a sacrifice fly, as did Jose Bautista (rbi single, walk), Aaron Hill, and Kevin Millar. But the Jays managed no extra base hits. No Jays of the Day today, though Burres takes home the Towers and Camp the Batista.

The Jays will put their series win streak (as well as their non-consecutive loss streak) on the line tomorrow afternoon. Roy Halladay will pitch for the Jays, while Jose Contreras will hurl for the Pale Hose.

In other bad and potentially really bad news, Jesse Litsch, who was ahead of schedule, had pain throwing last night and will be examined by he-who-must-not-be-named on Monday. The Jays are saying that it's precautionary only, but keep your fingers crossed.