SB Nation - B.J. Ryan

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:33 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

LaTroy Hawkins and Glenn Robinson faced each other in high school. This is the kind of thing that passes for news in December.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while trying not to dance.

LaTroy Hawkins was in Milwaukee yesterday for his physical, making his deal official (FanShot). As mentioned previously, he's due $3.5 million in 2010 and $4 million in 2011, plus $550k available if he maximizes his incentives. One thing I didn't know until reading it afterwards: Hawkins grew up in Gary, Indiana and played basketball against former Buck Glenn Robinson.

I've mentioned previously that the bullpen situation is starting to fill up, but realized yesterday that I've been leaving Carlos Villanueva out of all of my projections. As Adam McCalvy noted in his story on Hawkins, the bullpen now has Trevor Hoffman, Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva and David Riske, and barring a trade or injury, it looks like Chris Smith, Chris Narveson, Chuck Lofgren and Zack Braddock, among others, are on the outside looking in.

While there may not be much competition for a spot in the bullpen, there will be an interesting race to see who opens the season as the backup catcher. View From Bernie's Chalet handicaps the candidates, and is hoping for George Kottoras to open the season in the majors, with Jonathan Lucroy in AAA and Angel Salome on the trading block. Two quick thoughts on that:

Kottoras is out of options, so unless one of the prospects blows him out of the water this spring, he'll likely make the team.
You can never have too many catchers, so don't be surprised if the Brewers hang onto both Lucroy and Salome and try to work out some kind of rotation in Nashville.

Speaking of competitions involving backup catchers, we need your vote to help select a backup catcher for the BCB All Decade Team. As of this writing, Mike Rivera leads Jason Kendall by 15 votes.

At Mike Cameron's press conference in Boston yesterday, we heard some insight for the first time into Ken Macha's feeling toward the running game last season. 2009 was the first time in Cameron's career he's had single-digit stolen bases, and he said he "ran into a little situation where I had to abide by the rules of the manager, even though I’ve been pretty successful, I mean, 80 percent of the time that I’ve ran." Macha has admitted he'll have to open up the running game a little more this season, but this is the first time I can recall hearing a player talk about restraints last season.

Every now and then the Mug provides me an "Ask and you shall receive" moment. Yesterday I asked about differences in attendance at Miller Park based on the starting pitcher, and Wisconsin Sports Tap did the research, discovering no correlation. Many, if not most, Brewer tickets are probably purchased too far in advance to predict starting pitching assignments, so that's likely what I should have expected.

In the minors: FanGraphs unveiled their Top Ten Brewer Prospects yesterday. Alcides Escobar sits atop the list, as he likely will in just about every set of rankings coming out this winter, but Brett Lawrie climbed in front of Mat Gamel for the #2 spot. We'll be doing our Community Prospect Rankings in January, and I'm curious to see where Lawrie will rank there.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Signed pitcher Rodrigo Lopez to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Signed infielder Jamey Carroll to a two year deal worth $3.85 million and signed reliever Luis Ayala to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Signed reliever Mike Gonzalez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and third baseman Garrett Atkins to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed pitcher Geoff Geary and infielder Ray Olmedo to minor league deals.
Tigers: Re-signed infielder Ramon Santiago to a two year deal.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners and A's also finalized their four way deal involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. It's been a time for change in Toronto over the last few months: Jordan Bastian noted that the Rogers Centre features three-story images of Alex Rios, Scott Rolen, B.J. Ryan and Roy Halladay. All four will now need to be removed.

In the interest of keeping conversation going and providing fresh content on the site each day, I occasionally post things that wouldn't be front page-worthy during the season, but keep things lively in December. Occasionally when I do that, someone stops by the comments to make sure I know I'm wasting their time, or ask why we're voting for bench players on the All Decade Team. Yes, I know those posts aren't hard-hitting news, but they beat spending a day ranking and discussing your favorite Pixar movies, like Keith Law and Rob Neyer did yesterday.

Earlier this week he celebrated a birthday, and today former Brewer Matt Kinney is the subject of Lookout Landing's Faces series.

Happy birthday today to 1986 and 1989 Brewer Bryan Clutterbuck, who turns 50.

Drink up.

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

View full size photo »

We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

Browse more photos »

In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Bluebird Banter Answers the Dallas Morning News' Questions

hugo — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:33:28 -0000

Hi everyone. So, Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News sent me some questions in anticipation of the Jays' 4-game, 3-day series with the Rangers and, given the team's recent play, I gritted my teeth and answered them:

DMN: The Rangers last saw the Blue Jays in June. Give us an update on the club since then.

Hugo: Do I have to? Things haven't been pretty for the Jays since June. July saw the pitching stay strong but the hitting falter, and August saw some better hitting but very poor pitching, with even ace Roy Halladay struggling. The team's situational hitting has been very poor and its record in one-run games has been a disaster.

In terms of personnel, Roy Halladay is still a Jay, as the world saw with the drama that played out around the trade deadline. B.J. Ryan and Alex Rios, however, are not. The Jays ate Ryan's salary as a sunk cost but the Chicago White Sox opted to assume the six years remaining on Rios' salary. The Jays also traded Scott Rolen to the Cincinnati Reds for Edwin Encarnacion (who is presently nursing an injured hamstring) and two young pitchers, Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke. Losing Rios and Rolen has hurt the Jays' defense, which in turn has hurt the Jays' pitching.

About the only bright spot since June has been the return of Travis Snider over the past two weeks. He hasn't lit up the league, but is hitting much better than he did in April before being returned to the minors.

DMN: Roy Halladay has not been as dominant since the trade deadline as he has the rest of the season. Is any of that hangover from not getting traded or is he just in a mini-slump based on the opponents he’s faced and that he was due for some minor bump in the road?

Hugo: Halladay isn't the type to let not getting traded affect his mental or physical preparation for games or his in-game focus, so I think it's just one of those things. He's been facing very good AL East offensive teams that have seen a ridiculous amount of Doc over the past many years, and every so often, teams like that are going to figure him out a little bit. Doc's walk and strikeou numbers have been as good as ever, so some of it is undoubtedly bad luck. It's actually refreshing in a way to be reminded that even Halladay is only human. That said, when Doc isn't himself and the Jays are struggling, it can be doubly painful because the team really depends on Doc to be the stopper.

DMN: Who has been the biggest surprise of the season for Toronto? The biggest disappointment?

Hugo: Designated hitter/left fielder Adam Lind and second baseman Aaron Hill have been fantastic stories. Both are young home-grown players that have shown potential in the past but really took it to the next level this season. But for me the biggest surprises have been shortstop Marco Scutaro and young lefthanded pitcher Ricky Romero. In Scutaro's case, I just can't remember a player his age undergoing such a drastic change in his game. He's been a fantastic leadoff hitter who has been impossible to keep off the bases, and played a splendid defensive shorstop as well. As for Romero, he had been the butt of a joke at General Manager J.P. Ricciardi's expense for so long people forgot that he was a first-round pick for a reason. Recently he's been struggling with his command, but unlike some of the other young Jays' pitchers, he won't need to be shut down to preserve his arm, so he should have a chance to turn it around in September.

As for the biggest disappointment, it's clearly Vernon Wells. Wells spent about a third of last season hurt, but he performed very well when he was in the lineup, at least at the plate. This season, though has been a disaster with poor play on both sides of the ball. He just hasn't been able to get going at all at the plate, and his defense has fallen off considerably from where it was. The fans have turned on him as well and home games can't be fun for Wells right now. I feel bad for him as his salary really shouldn't be held against him and he is clearly giving it his all, but the bottom line is that he has been one of the poorer everyday players in the league this season and a mid-market team like the Jays can't afford to carry a player like that, let alone at such an astronomical salary.

DMN: How has the bullpen performed the last month or so? What can Rangers fans expect in the late innings of close games?

Hugo: August hasn't been a good month for the bullpen. Scott Downs returned from the re-aggravation of a toe injury that had sidelined him earlier this season, but he hasn't gotten much work in since then and has been shaky when he has pitched. After a splendid July, Brandon League has had an ugly August and has generally been a bit of a mystery all season - he has more strikeouts than innings pitched and very few walks, numbers that should suggest dominance, especially considering his hard sinker known for inducing groundballs. Yet his ERA (presently 5.31) hasn't reflected that at all. Lefthanded batters have been the main culprit. Lefty Jesse Carlson and righty Jason Frasor have been the best relief pitchers recently, and I'd look for them late in close games at the moment.

DMN: Who are a few players to watch in this series?

Hugo: Travis Snider is the one to watch at the moment, at least from the Jays' fans perspective. The young slugger has struggled to make contact since being returned to the big club (he has struck out in over a third of his 46 plate appearances) but that has come from working the count more (8 walks in 12 games) as well as from his struggles to make contact so it's not all bad. Snider is only hitting .198 since returning, but he has gotten on base at a .348 clip and hit three home runs. The bottom line is that it's only been 12 games and he is still very much a work in progress, but one worth watching. Adam Lind is making a bid at a 30-home run season (he's got 25 right now), which would be a lovely milestone for the young hitter, while Hill has already reached that (he hit no. 31 on Friday).

DMN: Can you give us a scouting report on the starters the Rangers will face in this 4-game series packed into 3 days?

Hugo: Sure. Brett Cecil will pitch in tonight's game and it could well be his last start as he has about maxed out his innings between the majors and the minors this season. Cecil, like the Jays, was on his way to a very nice rookie season and had a spectacular July but August has not been kind. The young Marylander has really struggled with his command and has given up 2 home runs in each of his last two starts to boot. Cecil, a lefthander, has a good sinking fastball that he uses to induce groundballs, a very good slider, and a changeup and curve that have eluded him at times this season.

In Tuesday's doubleheader, Brian Tallet will start the first game. Tallet, essentially a career reliever prior to this season, stepped into the Jays' rotation early this season when it was decimated by injuries and did a credible job. This will be his first start since being returned to the bullpen in late July. Tallet is not a hard-thrower and relies on movement on his pitches and a good changeup.

Marc Rzepczynski (that's "Zep-Chin-Ski") will start the other game on Tuesday. Zep (as his teammates called him) is, like Cecil, a 2007 draftee and his emergence this season has been a nice surprise for the Jays. He's been quite good in his 10 starts, showing excellent movement on his pitches and good strikeout and groundball numbers. Like Cecil, he leans heavily on his fastball-slider combo and will occasionally struggle with his control.

Scott Richmond will pitch on Wednesday. Richmond is a great story as a 29-year old rookie who was pitching for the Edmonton Cracker Cats of the Independed League just a couple of seasons ago. Richmond started off the season fantastically but, like the Jays, has fallen on hard times recently. He was out for a few weeks with some inflammation in his throwing arm and hasn't been the same since returning. Richmond has shown a solid ability to miss bats (97 Ks in 106 IP) and limit walks, but he can occasionally get hit hard. He uses the traditional four pitches and is most effective when he is mixing them all in.

DMN: How do Blue Jays fans feel about the Rangers? Do they expect the team to make this wild card race interesting in the final month of the season?

Hugo: I hope they do. It's always fun to see a good wild-card race. Though I suppose there is some vested interest among Jays' fans in the wild card winner coming from the AL East, since Jays fans like to complain about how difficult the division is, a complaint that has a lot of truth.

DMN: Anything else Rangers fans should know about the Blue Jays?

Hugo: The past two months have really taken its toll on the psyche of the team's fans. Even after the Jays' hot start, fans expected the second half to be tough with so many games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, but things have been even rougher than anticipated with the team essentially winning 1/3 of their games for the past two months. The Jays have been bad over that period, but they haven't been nearly this bad either.

Gregg out as Cubs closer, Billy Wagner an option?

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:45:39 -0000

More photos » by Henny Ray Abrams - AP

Browse more photos »

After watching closer Kevin Gregg give up four two-out runs in the ninth inning of a 4-1 loss versus the Padres, Cubs manager Lou Piniella decided to make a change.

"I think we're going to make some changes as far as what we're going to do in late innings," Piniella said. "We'll have some more tomorrow."

Angel Guzman and Carlos Marmol are the most likely replacements at the closer spot, but could the Cubs make a move for Billy Wagner? Wagner is coming off the disabled list Friday, and will likely play the role of a middle reliever unless the Mets can move him.The Mets already have two potential closers in JJ Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, so if the Cubs took on a small portion of his salary, the Mets might be interested.

Wagner has a one million dollar buyout at the end of the season, so it might be worth the Cubs' while to give him a shot. They had interest in B.J. Ryan, but he could not pull his velocity back up. Wagner, on the other hand, has a fastball registering around 93 mph and a slider that is as good as ever.

The Cubs are six games out of first and adding an All-Star closer could do wonders to Cubs in the late innings.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 14:16:16 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron and Jody Gerut celebrate the Brewers' win over the Dodgers Wednesday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while working on a poem.

Will Prince Fielder be suspended today? Disciplinary action for Tuesday's incident is expected to be announced today, and I've heard anything from no suspension to ten games suggested. I guess we'll find out. Meanwhile, Ken Macha was on damage control yesterday, attempting to explain to reporters some of the misconceptions involved and make sure people were aware of the root cause.

How much of the blame for overblowing this incident belongs to Anthony Witrado? Despite admitting earlier this season to being a Dodger fan and a Manny Ramirez fan, plus the fact that he wasn't actually present to witness what happened, Witrado appeared on SportsCenter yesterday and buried both Fielder and the Brewer organization. Brewers Daily, who has had some personal interaction with Witrado in the past, is calling for his firing. It's a shame that, in an era where so many hardworking and talented journalists are losing their jobs, Witrado still has one.

Are the Brewers getting ready to swap someone out in the bullpen? Buried at the bottom of Adam McCalvy's story on Carlos Villanueva was this note:

The Brewers are expected to promote newly signed reliever Jesus Colome from Triple-A Nashville as early as Friday. Colome, released by the Nationals last month and scooped up by the Brewers, pitched two more scoreless innings on Tuesday to preserve his perfect ERA. He struck out 11 batters in seven innings over his first four appearances for Nashville.

One would have to assume R.J. Swindle will be the one to depart, again. Swindle will probably be back in September, but might not get another chance to pitch significant innings this season, or as a Brewer.

Another day, another note on the ineptitude of Jason Kendall: This time it comes from The Daily Drink, where Christian Schneider argues that Kendall is no longer a major league player. As of this writing, Kendall is 2-for his last 27 (.080/.140/.080 over that span), and his OPS has dropped to .584.

Is Ryan Braun an underrated defender? He hasn't looked great in the outfield the last few days, but Baseball Digest Daily ranks him as the fifth best NL left fielder, defensively. I think you can make a solid case that he should be playing in right, not left.

In the minors:

Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff takes a look at AAA roster composition across baseball, and finds that the Brewers have one of the youngest squads, with an average age of 26.4.
Baseball America listed Roque Mercedes as an honorable mention in their list of the top ten prospects traded at the deadline.

On Power Rankings and other stuff:

Beyond the Box Score dropped the Brewers two spots to #24 in their Power Rankings.
MLB FanHouse moved the Brewers up one spot to #19.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham listed the Brewers among their five losers at the trade deadline.

Around baseball:

Astros: Signed reliever Roy Corcoran.
A's: Signed Brett Tomko to a minor league deal.
Cubs: Released relievers B.J. Ryan and Jason Waddell.
Mets: Jonathan Niese will undergo surgery to repair a torn hamstring tendon and miss the rest of the season.
Nationals: Placed Austin Kearns on the DL with a thumb contusion.
Red Sox: Signed Paul Byrd to a minor league deal.
Royals: Designated Ryan Freel for assignment.
Yankees: Designated infielder Cody Ransom for assignment and signed Russ Ortiz to a minor league deal.

I had a couple of Twitter-based links this morning, but Twitter appears to be down so I'll post them here and maybe they'll work later:

With the win last night, Cool Standings has the Brewers' playoff chances back up to 7.7%.
Jon Heyman is on vacation in Wisconsin this week, so if you see him...I don't know, do whatever it is you do when you see Jon Heyman.

Happy birthday today to Luis Vizcaino, who appeared in 224 games as a Brewer between 2002 and 2004 and turns 35 today.

Drink up.

Cubs release closer B.J. Ryan

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 21:55:11 -0000

More photos » by Nathan Denette - AP

Browse more photos »

The Cubs have decided to release closer B.J. Ryan from his minor league contract after just 5 2/3 innings pitched for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs. The Cubs added Ryan with the intention of giving manager Lou Piniella more options versus lefties. However, Ryan felt that his velocity and sharpness would not get back to major league form and asked for his release. After adding John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny on the trade deadline, holding onto the once All-Star closer who could not top 90 on his fastball would only have hurt the Cubs' chances down the stretch.

Ryan will likely search for another job but will likely struggle now that the Blue Jays and Cubs have passed on him. Still, do not rule out a fringe team from giving him an opportunity to build up his velocity for the 2010 season.

Going For Another Red Sweep: Cubs vs. Reds, Wednesday 8/5, 6:10 CT

Al — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 21:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Write your own caption.

Browse more photos »

The Cubs go for their seventh straight win over the Reds this evening (they won the final game of a three-game series in Cincinnati in June, swept them in Chicago, and have won the first two of this series). The Reds seem a team in disarray, though to be fair, a lot of it is missing three starters (Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson and Scott Rolen, who isn't on the DL but probably will not play tonight) and putting a makeshift lineup on the field.

I almost feel sorry for Dusty Baker. Almost.

With the Mets' blowout of the Cardinals this afternoon, the Cubs can take a one-game lead in the NL Central with a win.

Bruce Miles discusses "quality starts" and how the Cubs starters have far exceeded the minimum "6 IP, 3 ER" standard for that stat:

The numbers are even more impressive for the Cubs’ starters since July 1. In that time, the Cubs have gotten 19 quality starts. The team’s record in those games is 17-2, and the ERA of the starters in quality-start games since July 1 is 1.93.

In this period, they’ve had only 3 starts of the minimum kind: Carlos Zambrano’s July 12 start, Randy Wells’ July 24 start and Kevin Hart’s July 30 start. Maybe the Cubs didn’t like that one, because they traded Hart right after the game.

That's the key -- the 4.50 ERA you get for the minimum 6 IP, 3 ER quality start is simply a starting point. The Cubs also lead the major leagues in starts that have gone into the seventh inning -- that's an even more important benchmark, I think. That's helped the team win despite the semi-frequent bullpen meltdowns.

Gordon Wittenmyer has some notes about the minor league adventures of Geovany Soto and B.J. Ryan. In short: Geo will be back Friday, and Ryan threw another scoreless inning.

Site note: there have been quite a few posts lately asking "how good are these seats?" and "how do I get to Wrigley from..." In response to this, I have created The BCB All-Purpose "Where's My Seat?" "How Do I Get To Wrigley" Thread. Post any requests like this in that post -- it is permanently on the right sidebar under "BCB Specials and Site Info". That way we won't have the FanPost list overrun with requests like this. Thanks.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Rich Harden Cubs	vs.	Justin Lehr Reds

7-6	W-L	0-0
4.50	ERA	5.40
115	SO	0
41	BB	6
19	HR	0
vs. Cin	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	7-6	19	18	0	0	0	0	98.0	91	54	49	19	41	115	4.50	1.35

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Justin Lehr	0-0	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.0	4	3	3	0	6	0	5.40	2.00

Justin Lehr had some mediocre relief years for the A's and Brewers in 2004, 2005 and 2006. He spent two years trying to get back to the majors, and did so on July 31 for the Reds, making his first major league start. In that start he threw 97 pitches in five innings, and that's not a misprint -- he walked six and struck out none. Thus if the Cubs can be patient, they should do fine tonight. Only one Cub has more than one career AB vs. Lehr -- Alfonso Soriano, who is 2-for-4. Lehr, in case you have never heard of him, is no kid prospect -- he turned 32 on Monday.

Rich Harden has lowered his ERA nearly a full run in his last four starts, from 5.47 to 4.50. In those four starts he is 2-0, 1.50, with 32 strikeouts and 5 walks in 24 innings. That's the Harden we got last July and the guy we need him to be. He has never lost to the Reds (4-0, 2.59 in four starts, though this is his first career start in Cincinnati), and gave them only one hit -- Joey Votto's first-inning homer -- on July 26 at Wrigley Field. That is, incidentally, the only hit Votto has off Harden in 7 career AB.

TV tonight is once again cable-only, CSN Chicago and FSN Ohio. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Reds site Red Reporter.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 7:15 pm, 8:15 pm and 9 pm CDT. And the first pitch thread WILL be up at 6 pm CDT today, as usual.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Cubs Minor League Wrap--August 1

Josh77 — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 06:08:00 -0000

Apparently there's some "bromance" on the Boise Hawks.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs zapped the New Orleans Zephyrs, 14-0.

The I-Cub pitching staff threw a combined one-hitter tonight. Starter James Russell gave up the lone hit in his four innings. Russell walked one and struck out two.

Justin Berg got the win in relief because Russell didn't go five. Berg walked one and hit one in his two innings. He struck out one Zephyr.

B.J. Ryan, John Gaub and Blake Parker finished out the game with an inning a piece. Ryan and Gaub both struck out two in perfect innings. Parker walked one and didn't strike out anybody.

Catcher Chris Robinson led the 19 hit I-Cub attack today by going 4 for 5 with a double. He scored twice and knocked two in. Center fielder Matt Camp was 3 for 5 with a stolen base and three runs scored. Third baseman Nate Spears was 2 for 4 with two walks. Spears scored once and had two RBI.

John-Ford Griffin was 2 for 5 with a double. He scored twice and batted one in. Shortstop Darwin Barney had two doubles in a 2 for 6 game. Barney had one RBI.

Bobby Scales had the lone I-Cub home run tonight, his fifth of the year in AAA. Scales was 1 for 5 with a walk and three RBI. He scored twice.

Even second baseman Aaron Miles got into the act. Miles was 2 for 6 and scored twice.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies won their sixth in a row tonight as they deep-fried the Carolina Mudcats, 4-1.

There was a good rehab appearance tonight by David Patton, who allowed one unearned run in a three-inning start. Patton gave up two hits, didn't walk anyone and struck out four.

Marco Carillo got the win with three innings of shutout relief. Carillo gave up one hit, didn't walk anyone and struck out one. Brian Schlitter got his 15th save by pitching the ninth inning. He allowed one hit, but erased the runner with a double play. Schlitter didn't walk or strike out anyone.

Right fielder Tyler Colvin is on fire right now, following up yesterday's 5 for 5 with a 3 for 3 game, including a double and his eighth home run of the season. He also reached once on catcher's interference. Colvin scored twice and had two RBI.

Shortstop Jonathan Mota was 3 for 5 with a double, although he also committed two errors. Center fielder James Adduci was 2 for 4 with a triple and a stolen base. He also scored once.

Catcher Welington Castillo had two doubles in a 2 for 4 game. He had one RBI.

Daytona Cubs

The D-Cubs were shut out by the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 8-0.

Starter Rafael Dolis didn't make it out of the third inning tonight. He allowed three runs on five hits over 2.2 innings. Dolis walked two and struck out four.

The D-Cubs only had two hits tonight.

Peoria Chiefs

The Chiefs clipped the South Bend Silver Hawks 3-2.

Austin Biebens-Dierkx started tonight and picked up the win with eight solid innings. He allowed two runs on four hits. He only walked one and struck out five.

Chris Huseby got his fourteenth save with a hitless ninth, although he did walk two batters, albeit one intentionally.

Second baseman Ryan Flaherty was 3 for 4. DH DJ LeMahieu went 2 for 3 with a walk. Brett Jackson's 28 game on-base streak came to an end.

Some kid I've never heard of named Michael Brenly hit his fourth home run of the season tonight, a solo homer in the third inning. Brenly was 2 for 3 with a walk and scored twice

Boise Hawks

The shutouts continued tonight as the Hawks blanked the Vancouver Canadians, 9-0 behind a seven-run third inning.

Christopher Rusin, Yohan Gonzalez and Dionis Nunez each threw three innings of the shutout.

Right fielder Jae-Hoon Ha went 3 for 5 with a double. Ha scored twice and had two RBI. First baseman Justin Bour went 2 for 5 with a double, two RBI and a run scored.

AZL Cubs

Beat the Rangers 7-6.

Geovany Soto was the DH tonight and he went 1 for 3 with a double and 2 RBI.

Cubs Minor League Wrap--July 30

Josh77 — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 06:03:03 -0000

First of all, I want to apologize for not having a MLW yesterday. AT&T was supposed to turn on my phone and internet service yesterday, but I wasn't confident that they would and sure enough, there was a problem. After initially telling us that it wouldn't be fixed until tomorrow or possibly even Monday (and even that wasn't until after they asked my wife "Are you sure you're not a moron?" half a dozen times before agreeing to send someone out), a technician actually called back later and said he could come out this afternoon. He fixed the problem in about a half an hour. I've never had anything but great service from AT&T technicians who get sent out. The people who you have to deal with to actually get one of those technicians to come out, on the other hand. . . Dealing with any major faceless corporation is a problem, but the AT&T call centers are a special level of hell.

As far as the trade goes today, I think the Pirates got some interesting parts, but little that the Cubs can't afford to lose. I like Kevin Hart the best of all of the players the Pirates got. Hart's a bit of an overachiever who turned his career around by learning the cut fastball. I think he should to continue to "overachieve" for a while, but he's really a #4-5 starter. He was a nice return for Freddy Bynum no matter what.

Despite the Cubs moving Jose Ascanio into the rotation in Iowa, I think that if he has a major league future, it's as a middle reliever. He's had control problems in the majors, as most of you know, although his walk rates haven't been bad in the minors the last couple of seasons. If he can pitch in the majors with the talent he's shown in the minors, he's a decent right-handed middle reliever. There are a lot of those guys out there and since we got a decent left-handed middle-reliever for him, I'm not going to cry over his loss.

The interesting player we gave up was Josh Harrison. Harrison, the nephew of former major leaguer John Shelby, is a guy who doesn't have a lot of raw tools but has done nothing but hit since the Cubs drafted him in the sixth round out of Cincinnati. At 5'8", he's not likely to ever hit for power and despite his stolen base totals, his speed isn't that impressive, as his SB% indicates. Still, he's hit over .300 in both seasons in the Cub system and while batting average is one of my least favorite stats to evaluate minor league hitters, it's hard to ignore the evidence that Harrison appears to be pretty good at putting wood on the ball. Because of my moving I haven't finished my mid-season prospect lists yet, but I was planning on including Harrison somewhere in the high-teens. If this trade comes back to bite us, it's going to be Harrison that is going to do the biting. However, I think the odds are very much against it. He could end up as a poor-man's Howie Kendrick, and we've all seen how many problems the real Kendrick has had in the major leagues.

Now, on to the games. Everyone who played, won.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs dethroned the Omaha Royals, 6-1.

J.R. Mathes had a great start tonight, throwing seven innings and allowing only four hits and one unearned run. Hart walked one and struck out four.

B.J. Ryan faced six batters tonight. He retired the first five and then walked the sixth one before exiting the game. He had one strikeout. Ryan did have some problems finding the plate, however, as of the 25 pitches he threw, only 11 were for strikes.

Left fielder J.F. Griffin (it's all-initials day for the I-Cubs) was 3 for 4 with a double. He scored once and had one RBI. Right fielder S.O. Taguchi had a triple in a 2 for 5 game. Taguchi had two RBI and scored once.

Tennessee Smokies

The Smokies beat the Mobile BayBears, 5-2.

Starter Casey Coleman improved his record to 10-5 with six solid innings tonight. Coleman allowed only one run on five hits. He walked two and struck out two.

Brian Schlitter got his 14th save tonight, although he did allow a run on two hits in 1.2 innings.

Third baseman Marquez Smith hit his eighth home run tonight, a two-run homer off top D-Backs prospect Jarrod Parker in the third inning. Smith was 1 for 5. Then first baseman Blake Lalli went deep back-to-back for his fifth home run. Lalli was 2 for 4.

Left fielder Ty Wright was 2 for 3 with a walk. Catcher Welington Castillo scored once in a 2 for 4 effort.

Daytona Cubs

The D-Cubs cracked the Charlotte Stone Crabs, 2-1 in 12 innings.

Starter Jay Jackson picked up where he left off in Daytona, allowing only one unearned run in 5.2 innings tonight. Jackson gave up four hits, walked only one and struck out nine. (Oh, and thanks to the people on the board who announced his demotion. It's been a rough week for me, and it's good to know others can cover for you.)

David Cales tossed three shutout innings of relief. He gave up one hit and walked two. Cales fanned one.

Henry Williamson got the win. He gave up a walk and a single, but no runs. Williamson fanned two.

Right fielder Brandon Guyer was 2 for 6 and drove home the winning run in the bottom of the 12th. Shortstop Starlin Castro went 2 for 5 with a walk. Third baseman Jake Opitz went 2 for 4 with a walk.

Peoria Cubs

They were winning 3-0 when they were rained out in Dayton. The game will not be made up.

Boise Hawks

The Hawks sunk the Vancouver Canadians, 12-9.

Ryan Sontag retired the final four Canadian hitters without incident for his third save. The rest of the Boise pitchers wish to remain anonymous, although one of them did get the win.

Right fielder Jae-Hoon Ha hit his first home run of the year tonight, a three-run home run as part of a seven-run third inning for the Hawks. Ha also doubled and scored twice in a 2 for 5 game.

First baseman Justin Bour went 3 for 4 with a walk. He scored twice and had two RBI. DH Burundi Davis was a home run short of the cycle in a 3 for 4 game. Davis scored once and had two RBI.

Second baseman Logan Watkins went 2 for 4 with a stolen base an RBI and two runs scored.

AZL Cubs

Did not play.